The odds of a new global temperature record being set within the next five years have increased further, as the return of the El Niño weather pattern could make 2027 the hottest year ever, the UN’s weather agency has warned.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s annual update predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record – up from 80% in last year’s forecast.

Global average temperatures reached 1.55C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, when the last El Niño event supercharged human-made warming primarily caused by the greenhouse gas emissions generated through burning fossil fuels.

El Niño to supercharge heat in 2027

Meteorologists expect El Niño – the natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean – to start developing as early as this month. Some forecasters say that this time around the event could become particularly powerful.

Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the WMO report, said the prediction of El Niño for the second half of 2026 “increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year”.

Researchers warn that a strong El Niño risks supercharging extreme weather conditions, contributing to more severe wildfires and droughts in some regions and storms and floods in others.

Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026

The UN agency says there is a 91% chance that the key 1.5C warming threshold will be temporarily exceeded again for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. An overshoot in a single year does not mean that the most ambitious global warming goal enshrined in the Paris Agreement has been lost. But the UN conceded last year that a “multi-decadal” breach is very likely to happen within the next decade.

‘Astonishing’ early heatwave in Europe

Western Europe has already been gripped by an early-season heatwave this month, with countries including the UK, France and Ireland recording their hottest May temperatures ever.

“Temperatures on this scale were once exceptional even at the height of summer,” said Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London. “Seeing 35C in the UK during spring is absolutely astonishing, but the science is very clear – climate change makes these heatwaves hotter, longer, and far more frequent”.

She added that “temperature records will continue to tumble until we fundamentally halt global emissions and reach net zero”.

In India, extreme heat in recent weeks has also threatened mango and other crops and pushed up power demand to an all-time high as people switch on air-conditioning, while pilgrims in Mecca have conducted their rituals during the annual Hajj pilgrimage in scorching temperatures.

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El Niño expected to bring next record-hot year as soon as 2027