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Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing humanity. This blog, based on the first chapter of carboncreditcapital.com’s widely respected Climate Change and Carbon Markets 2023 Report, breaks down the key facts into bite-sized chunks to help you get up to speed on the science and potential fixes, with a focus on carbon credits.

 

Greenhouse Gases Trap Heat and Drive Climate Change

The greenhouse effect is a natural process where gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide act like a blanket, trapping heat from the sun and keeping Earth warm enough to support life. But human activities since the Industrial Revolution have pumped out extra greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, agriculture, deforestation and manufacturing.

These extra emissions are dangerously strengthening the greenhouse effect and disrupting the climate system. As concentrations rise, more incoming solar radiation gets absorbed, while less infrared radiation escapes to space. This growing energy imbalance is resulting in rising global temperatures, shifting weather and ocean patterns, melting ice, and more frequent and intense droughts, floods and storms worldwide.

 

A Truly Global Challenge

Greenhouse gases mix uniformly in the atmosphere – emissions anywhere impact people everywhere. So no single country can solve climate change alone. Mitigating climate risks requires cooperation between governments, corporations and citizens worldwide. But because the harms of climate change are distributed unequally, with developing nations bearing the greatest burdens, it’s challenging to align costs and incentives. Overcoming this collective action problem is key to an equitable and effective climate solution like carbon credits.

 

What Are Carbon Credits?

Carbon credits are tradeable permits that give the holder the right to emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases. The total amount of credits issued is limited by caps set by regulators to help meet national emissions reduction targets.

Companies can buy credits from the market if their emissions exceed their allowance. The transfer of permits ensures emissions cuts are made most cheaply by incentivizing reductions in sectors where abatement costs are lower. This market-based approach offers flexibility and reduces the overall economic burden of transitioning to a low-carbon future.

For individuals, purchasing carbon credits is a way to take responsibility for offsetting the emissions associated with daily activities that are difficult to avoid, like home energy use, driving and flying. The funds go towards emissions-reducing projects to counterbalance your carbon footprint. Popular offset types include renewable energy, forest conservation and clean cookstoves.

 

What Are the Effects of Climate Change?

Rising seas

Melting land ice and expanding warmer oceans are causing accelerating sea level rise globally. Coastal cities and islands face risks of flooding and permanent inundation. Between 1901-2018, global sea level rose 20 cm on average. The rate of rise is accelerating.

Hotter temperatures

Most of us can witness that the last decade was hotter than any time in the past 125,000 years, a fact confirmed by 99.9% of all scientific studies conducted on the topic. Our current trajectory guarantees even more heatwaves and less cold snaps. Far from being merely a question of “comfort”, this trend directly impacts the lives of each and every one of us, and global food security as a whole – each additional 1°C of warming decreases grain yields by 10% on average.

Extreme weather

Heavy rainstorms, hurricanes, droughts and wildfires are becoming more intense and frequent due to climate change. One only needs to watch the news on any given day to see how people’s lives are affected worldwide. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, fueling more precipitation when it does rain. But it also leads to quicker evaporation and drying between rain events, expanding drought risks.

Shrinking ice

Glaciers and Arctic sea ice are rapidly declining. Since 1980, Arctic sea ice extent has plunged by nearly 50% in summer and fall. Shrinking glaciers threaten water supplies for over 1 billion people worldwide who rely on seasonal meltwater runoff. Melting permafrost damages infrastructure and releases more heat-trapping gases.

Acidic oceans

Increased CO2 absorption makes seawater more acidic, endangering coral reefs and shellfish. Fish populations are shifting as oceans warm, threatening food security for people who rely on seafood.

Biodiversity under threat

Climate change is accelerating species extinction rates. Shifting climate zones will force many organisms to move or adapt. Those that can’t will perish. Nature’s complex web of life will unravel, with ripple effects throughout ecosystems.

Threats to health

Warmer temperatures expand the range of disease-carrying mosquitoes and ticks. Heat waves cause more premature deaths. Wildfires lead to respiratory illnesses. Food and water shortages will undermine nutrition and food safety. Allergies will worsen with more pollen production.

Climate conflict

Scarce resources like food, water and shelter increase conflict risk after climate disasters and in regions suffering water shortages. Millions of climate refugees, such as those escaping the Sahel region in Africa, will further aggravate political tensions between the global North and South. The Syrian civil war is an example of the horrors and suffering we can expect to witness.

Economic impacts

Extreme weather causes billions in damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure. Fighting climate change will require massive investment. But inaction carries an even higher price tag – up to 20% GDP loss by 2100. Transitioning to clean energy now makes economic sense.

 

Which Activities Produce the Most Emissions?

The top emitting sectors globally are:

  • Electricity/heat (31%)
  • Agriculture (11%)
  • Transportation (15%)
  • Forestry (6%)
  • Manufacturing (12%)

Within these sectors, the biggest contributors are:

  • Coal power
  • Gas power
  • Oil/petroleum
  • Industrial processes like cement and steel production
  • Deforestation and livestock
 

The United States, China and India generate nearly half of all carbon pollution.

 

We Can Solve This – Here’s How:

Though daunting, the climate crisis is not hopeless.

The technologies exist today to transition our energy, transportation, building and industry sectors away from fossil fuels and towards clean options like wind, solar, electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells, nuclear power, and next generation biofuels.

Natural climate solutions like forest protection and climate-smart agriculture can remove large amounts of carbon from the atmosphere cost-effectively while providing environmental and social co-benefits.

 

Key solutions include:

  • Massively scaling up wind, solar, nuclear power, electricity transmission grids, battery storage and energy efficiency.
  • Phasing out coal power and transitioning to electric vehicles.
  • Slashing methane emissions from oil/gas operations.
  • Protecting and restoring forests, wetlands, grasslands and farmlands to absorb CO2.
  • Investing in innovative new technologies like carbon capture and green hydrogen.
  • Putting a price on carbon through cap-and-trade schemes and carbon taxes to incentivize emissions reductions industry-wide.
  • Expanding the voluntary carbon credit market so individuals and companies can offset their emissions.

By making deep emissions cuts now, we can still limit warming to 1.5°C and avoid catastrophic climate change impacts. But action must start immediately – delay risks irreversible harm. Now is the time to get informed, change habits, contact elected officials and get involved. Our future depends on it!

 

To learn more about the state of Climate Change, Carbon Markets and how these affect each and every one of us, contact us for the full report.

Carbon Footprint

Want a simpler way to buy carbon credits? Discover our carbon marketplace

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Most businesses that decide to act on their net-zero targets reach the same point of friction. Buying carbon credits has meant tracking down brokers, sitting through sales calls, and requesting a quote just to learn a price, sometimes with limited proof of what you are buying.

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Climate-Linked Supply Chain Risk Is Already in Your P&L

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The earnings calls that quietly reframed climate from sustainability question to operating risk.

Three earnings calls in the last 18 months tell the story without any help from a press release.

Hershey, May 2024: cocoa price exposure compresses margin, and the company attributes part of the cost shock to West African weather. Olam, July 2024: coffee climate exposure quantified in the annual report. JBS, January 2025: supply chain climate disclosures expanded materially in response to investor pressure and regulatory expectation. None of these companies issued the announcement as climate news. They issued it as financial news. The climate-linked supply chain risk did not arrive with a sustainability framing; it arrived as a P&L line.

You are probably reading this article because you suspect the same thing is happening to your business. This piece walks through what is showing up on which earnings calls, how procurement and finance leaders are quantifying the exposure, and what serious corporates are doing about it before the regulator asks.

Where climate risk has already appeared in earnings

The pattern is consistent across resource-intensive sectors. A weather event compresses supply, the price spikes, the cost flows through the income statement, and the analyst on the call asks whether the event is anomalous or structural. Increasingly, the honest answer is the second one.

Cocoa is the cleanest example. The 2023 to 2024 West African harvest fell sharply on the back of erratic rainfall and disease. Cocoa futures more than tripled. Companies with concentrated West African sourcing absorbed the cost; companies with diversified sourcing absorbed less. The exposure was not climate as ESG topic. It was climate as cost of goods.

Coffee follows the same pattern. Brazilian and Vietnamese harvests have moved on weather more sharply across the last several seasons. Roasters with long-tenor supplier relationships and origin diversification have managed the volatility; roasters with spot-market exposure have not. Wheat, sugar, palm oil, beef: the same dynamic in different commodities, a pattern the IPCC AR6 Working Group II report projects will intensify across agricultural systems through mid-century.

What this means: climate risk is no longer a footnote in the 10-K. It is a line item the CFO has to explain on the call.

The three commodity exposures that hit margin first

For most companies with material Scope 3 exposure, three exposures dominate the near-term P&L risk.

  • Concentrated single-origin sourcing in a climate-vulnerable region. If your tier-one supply for any material commodity sits in one geography, you have a concentration risk that climate amplifies. Diversification across origins is the obvious hedge, but it takes years to build and requires relationships you cannot acquire by tender.
  • Supplier financial fragility under climate stress. Smallholder farmers, who supply a large share of the global cocoa, coffee, and palm oil market, do not carry the balance sheets to absorb yield shocks. When yields collapse, they exit. When they exit, your supply base shrinks, and the surviving suppliers raise prices. The risk is structural, not cyclical.
  • Logistics and storage exposure to extreme weather. Hurricane disruptions to Gulf shipping, drought-driven Panama Canal restrictions, flooding in European inland waterways: each of these has moved input costs in the last three years, a pattern documented in Munich Re’s natural catastrophe data. The exposure shows up as a one-quarter event in the financial press but accumulates over time on the cost line.

TCFD and ISSB disclosure changes

The disclosure architecture has now caught up with the risk. The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, whose recommendations are now embedded in the ISSB’s IFRS S2 climate standard, requires companies to disclose climate-related risks across physical and transition categories, with quantification where possible.

For physical risk specifically (the climate-linked supply chain risk you are reading about), the disclosure must address both acute exposures (extreme weather events) and chronic exposures (gradual changes in temperature, precipitation, and growing seasons). The disclosure must address the time horizon over which the risk is material, the parts of the value chain exposed, and the financial impact under different scenarios.

The CSRD imposes similar requirements under European law, with double materiality (both financial and impact materiality) embedded in the assessment. The practical effect: your auditors and your investor relations team now need a defensible answer to the climate-linked supply chain risk question, and the answer needs to be quantified.

What procurement and finance can do now

Three actions matter near-term.

Map your exposure. Most companies do not have a clear view of which tier-one and tier-two suppliers sit in which climate-vulnerable geographies. Without the map, you cannot quantify the risk, and without the quantification, you cannot disclose it credibly. The map is the foundation, and World Resources Institute climate risk research provides useful public tooling to start.

Diversify and deepen, in that order. Diversification across origins reduces concentration risk, but the deeper move is to invest in the resilience of the suppliers you already have. Regenerative practices, agroforestry, soil health interventions: these reduce yield volatility under climate stress and protect your input cost trajectory.

Embed the climate spend inside procurement, not outside it. Treating climate risk as a sustainability cost line subordinates it to the ESG budget. Treating it as a procurement and resilience investment puts it in the budget that matters, which is the cost-of-goods budget that the CFO defends quarterly.

Nature-based supply chain investments are the asset class designed for exactly this purpose. They sit inside the value chain, they reduce climate-linked supply risk, they generate verifiable Scope 3 reductions, and they produce the documentation an auditor and a regulator can both test.

If you are quantifying climate-linked supply chain risk in advance of the next earnings cycle or the next disclosure period, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you map your exposure and structure a Dual-Value Model response that addresses reduction, resilience, and disclosure-readiness in a single program. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Where should an SME start with a carbon action plan?

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More and more small and medium-sized businesses are hearing the same question from their larger customers: What is your carbon footprint? That question now travels down entire supply chains, and it arrives next to tender requirements, certification criteria, and rising customer expectations.

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