China has slightly weakened its headline climate target for the next five years, potentially allowing its emissions to rise until 2030, though persistent renewable energy growth could drive reductions faster than official goals suggest, analysts say.
In its five-year plan released on Thursday, the Chinese government pledges to cut carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product – known as carbon intensity – by 17% between 2026 and 2030. That is slightly below its previous goal of an 18% reduction for the 2021–2025 period, which it had already missed.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told Climate Home News the target was “underwhelming” and would allow emissions to rise by between 3% and 6% over the next five years, depending on the rate of economic growth.
In reality, China – the world’s biggest emitter – “clearly has the ability to keep emissions falling over this period”, he added.
Solar boom driving down emissions
Emissions from China’s energy and industrial sectors inched down by 0.3% in 2025 – the first full-year decline outside periods of major economic disruption, according to official figures released at the end of February. The drop was primarily driven by a boom in solar power helping to meet a growing share of rising electricity demand, alongside efforts to decarbonise the transport, cement and metals sectors, analysis by CREA showed.
In 2021, China pledged under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions intensity by 65% by the end of this decade from 2005 levels.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said economic disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, slower growth and reliance on heavy industries had complicated progress, leaving a “daunting gap”.
The new interim target “indicates a quiet recalibration, effectively acknowledging how difficult the goal has become”, he added.
Tech expansion over policy targets
Moving beyond a narrow focus on carbon intensity, Beijing set for the first time last year an absolute emission reduction target, committing to cutting its greenhouse gas emissions by between 7% and 10% by 2035 from unspecified “peak levels”.
The new five-year plan does not set a cap on total emissions, but some analysts remain optimistic that China’s rapid expansion of renewables and electric vehicles can keep driving down emissions.
Explainer: Will AI data centres make or break the energy transition?
Li said that “while officials remain cautious about declaring an early peak, domestic debate is shifting from when emissions will peak to how quickly they should decline”.
“China’s clean technology development, rather than traditional administrative climate controls, is increasingly becoming the primary driver of emissions reductions,” he added.
Experts said the new five-year plan shows expansion of clean energy remains central for China, with a target to double non-fossil fuel energy over the next 10 years signalling an increased focus on energy storage, green fuels and plans to clean up dirty industries.
Myllyvirta said “this has a real chance of keeping China’s CO2 emissions on a downward path”, although “policymakers are not prepared to make such a commitment”.
Ambiguous signal on coal
Analysts said the economic blueprint’s ambiguous signal on coal – still China’s largest energy source – complicated the overall picture. The plan advocates a peak in coal consumption, but stops short of setting a target to gradually reduce it, as President Xi Jinping indicated in 2021.
In 2025, China added the largest amount of coal-fired capacity since 2015, while progress on retiring older plants remains very slow, according to a report published by CREA late last year.
Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, a global, grassroots environmental organisation, said China’s five-year plan showed “insufficient progress” on coal.
“Expanding wind and solar at record speed is a huge achievement, but it must now be matched with a decisive phase-down of coal and a clear pathway to absolute emissions reductions,” he added in a written statement.
The post China eases climate target but clean energy could still cut emissions, experts say appeared first on Climate Home News.
China eases climate target but clean energy could still cut emissions, experts say
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Climate Change
Santa Marta summit kick-starts work on key steps for fossil fuel transition
As oil prices spike due to the Iran war, a new diplomatic process launched in Colombia will support a group of 57 countries – among them large fossil-fuel producers – interested in designing national roadmaps and a new financial architecture to wean their economies off coal, oil and gas, as well as building a trade system that favours clean energy.
The first global conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels wrapped up on Wednesday in the coal-port city of Santa Marta after several days of discussions bringing together ministers, academics, Indigenous and Afro-descendant peoples, green groups, trade unions and business representatives.
It offered a space for governments frustrated by last year’s failed attempt at COP30 to develop a global roadmap away from fossil fuels to make progress on how to reduce their reliance on hydrocarbons in a fair and carefully planned way, in line with a commitment made at COP28 in Dubai. Large fossil fuel-producing countries have since blocked concrete advances at the UN talks on putting that into practice.
The Santa Marta outcomes will feed into a voluntary roadmap being crafted by COP30 hosts Brazil based on inputs from countries and civil society.
Santa Marta: Ministers grapple with practicalities of fossil fuel phase-out
At Wednesday’s closing plenary, Colombian environment minister Irene Vélez Torres announced that a second conference will be held early next year in the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, co-chaired by Ireland, marking the start of a new policy-making process to run alongside the slower-paced climate COPs.
“For the first time, it demonstrates that it is possible to make a different type of environmental democracy,” Vélez Torres said, adding that improvements can be made to the methodology.
Colombia and the Netherlands, which jointly hosted the Santa Marta conference, said three workstreams had been set up to identify concrete ways to reduce fossil fuel dependence and strengthen co-operation between countries.
These workstreams are focused on designing national and regional roadmaps away from fossil fuels including coordinating support for implementation; reforming economic and financial architecture by reducing fossil fuel subsidies, unlocking investment and managing debt constraints; and connecting fossil fuel-producing and consuming nations to reshape the international trade system towards decarbonisation and green commerce.
A summary report of the conference said governments would receive policy support from a new panel of top scientists specialised in the energy transition, which will help countries develop roadmaps and align them with their national climate action plans (NDCs).
During two days of ministerial meetings, France was the first country to announce its own roadmap, which includes targets to end the consumption of coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and fossil gas by 2050 for energy purposes.
Dutch climate minister Stientje van Veldhoven said that, while “nobody is gonna force” governments to implement the anticipated roadmaps, “these countries came together because they want to transition to a different economy”, adding that the conference provides “safe space for dialogue”.
“The fact that we don’t have negotiations here gave us such different dynamics, so the psychology of the Santa Marta conference is something that we will definitely make sure to carry forward,” she told the plenary. Later she said at a press conference that the key was not to negotiate but to “collaborate”.
Call for a fossil fuel treaty
Countries gave mostly positive reactions to the conference proceedings and said the general mood had been uplifting. One government delegate from the Dominican Republic even had to fight back tears in the plenary as she thanked the hosts for inspiring the group of assembled countries.
While supportive of the Santa Marta discussions, oil-rich Nigeria advocated strongly for a “managed, just, orderly and equitable” transition away from fossil fuels, warning against any “sudden closures”. This stance was reflected in the summary report which notes that fossil fuels should “decline in a managed, fair, and politically viable way”.
Ghana, another fossil fuel-producing country, said oil and gas remain deeply tied to government revenues which fund public services. Nonetheless, the West African country urged others to join an initiative to negotiate a global “Fossil Fuel Treaty”, which a group of 18 nations called on the conference to endorse. The effort was not included in the Santa Marta workstreams.
Felix Wertli, Switzerland’s ambassador for the environment, said countries had found potential areas for collaboration around improving electricity grids, energy storage and green investments ahead of this year’s COP31 UN climate summit in Türkiye. “We are confident that this COP could support such a call,” he added.
“Groundbreaking” talks
Delegates said Santa Marta had offered a “more relaxed” and inclusive process than UN negotiations. Government officials met face-to-face in hours-long conversations and interacted with representatives of different social sectors, including Indigenous peoples, cities and academics in closed-door breakout sessions.
Panama’s climate envoy, Juan Carlos Monterrey, told Climate Home News that, while he had been sceptical of the process at first, it allowed for discussions to “flow” in a way that COPs do not. “That is groundbreaking – it is a massive change in how we deal with environmental diplomacy,” he said.
EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra told journalists that the fact that the conference had happened at all just a few months after a tense COP30 was an achievement in itself. UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte also noted that the Santa Marta dialogue “is a proof of point that we can talk maturely about a really difficult issue”.
Comment: Santa Marta marks a new chapter in climate diplomacy
Observers also largely praised the conference. Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, called it a “productive space” for discussing the “stickiest issues” in the energy transition. WWF’s Manuel Pulgar Vidal, also a former COP president for Peru, said Santa Marta made “hope swell into momentum”, adding that its urgency must be sustained beyond this one summit.
Patricia Suárez, from the Organization of Indigenous Peoples of the Colombian Amazon (OPIAC), said Indigenous peoples were optimistic that the conference had placed “the urgency of moving away from fossil fuels on the table”. But more concrete measures must follow, she noted, including declaring key rainforest ecosystems as “fossil fuel exclusion zones”.
One area the conference was criticised for overlooking was the health harms caused by fossil fuels through air pollution, extreme heat and other impacts. Jeni Miller, executive director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance, which unites 250 health organisations, said leaders in Santa Marta “did not address the importance of protecting people’s health”, which should be put at the centre of the conversation.
Influencing UN negotiations
Most government officials at the conference recognised the need to grow the “coalition of the willing” cemented in Santa Marta into a larger network that can influence other spaces such as UN climate negotiations – and its organisers reiterated that the door is open for others countries to join.
Dutch minister van Veldhoven told the final plenary that while “we are here with an immense group in Santa Marta, it is still too small” to fully disentangle the world from fossil fuels. Colombia and the Netherlands did not invite some powerful fossil fuel-producing countries like Russia and the US to the gathering because of their “openly extractivist” views, and major players in the clean energy sector like China were also left off the list.
Comment: Six nations at Santa Marta could shape fossil fuel futures
Tuvalu’s climate minister, Maina Vakafua Talia, told Climate Home News that big actors like China should be at the table, saying the criteria for invitations could change for the second fossil fuel phase-out conference his country will organise in April 2027.
“If we are missing out the main players in the discussion, then we are moving in a loop,” he said. “We need to find somehow how we can engage with [them] because there is no point in talking to ourselves.”
Claudio Angelo, head of international politics at Brazilian NGO Observatório do Clima, said countries could decide to keep the ball rolling within the UN climate negotiations by presenting formal agenda items on roadmaps away from fossil fuels at the annual Bonn talks in June which set the scene for COPs.
Tina Stege, climate envoy from the Marshall Islands, argued “there is a strong recognition that what we’re doing here can complement the COP process and needs to inform that process” – a view backed by other Pacific islands.
The post Santa Marta summit kick-starts work on key steps for fossil fuel transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
Santa Marta summit kick-starts work on key steps for fossil fuel transition
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