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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Emissions fell in first half
POWERING THE TRANSITION: China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, new analysis for Carbon Brief found, extending a decline that began in March 2024. Power sector emissions fell by 3% during this period, as growth in solar power alone matched the 170 terawatt-hour (TWh) rise in electricity demand, the analysis said. It noted that the sector’s coal use fell 3.4% year-on-year, while gas use increased by 6%. The analysis added that, even if China’s emissions fall in 2025, it will likely miss multiple climate targets this year, such as carbon intensity.
DEMAND UP, PRICES DOWN: Reuters reported that in July, which is not covered in the Carbon Brief analysis, China’s fossil-fuelled power generation “rose 4.3%…from a year earlier”, due to high cooling demand. Extreme heat continued to push power demand to new highs in early August, China Energy News said, with China seeing record demand continuously over 4-6 August. At one point demand reached 1,233 gigawatts, it added. Business news outlet Caixin reported that, despite this, power was “actually getting cheaper in some regions”, driven by the “growing share of renewables in the power mix”.

‘SHORT-TERM SHOCKS’: Extreme heat, heavy rains and floods “caused short-term shocks to economic operations”, Singapore-based outlet Lianhe Zaobao quoted a government official as saying. “Bad weather” specifically affected “steel and coal output”, according to Bloomberg, with the coal industry “also contending with government inspections”. The government will allocate 100bn yuan ($14bn) to “support businesses hit by natural disasters”, Reuters said.
PETROCHEMICALS RISING: The only major sector that saw growth in emissions during the first half of 2025 was the chemicals sector, the Carbon Brief analysis said, rising around 47% year-on-year. At least one segment of the industry is “set to expand by almost half between now and 2028”, Reuters cited a representative of oil giant Sinopec as saying. Meanwhile, state news agency Xinhua said Sinopec is “promoting the construction of a Beautiful China through the development of a beautiful petrochemical industry”.
Clean-tech exports stayed strong
OVERSEAS GROWTH: China’s exports of clean-energy technologies “rose further in July”, Caixin said, with Chinese lithium-ion battery and electric vehicle (EV) exports in the first seven months of 2025 rising around 26% year-on-year, by value. Solar cell exports also rose 54% in terms of volume over this period, it noted, although by value they “fell 23%”. Industry outlet PV Magazine said that China’s exports of solar cells and wafers had “increased significantly”, but that exports of panels declined. Meanwhile, the government has held its second meeting in two months with solar industry representatives on curbing overcapacity, Reuters said. Elsewhere, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) covered new research finding that, in 2024, Chinese EV companies invested more overseas than they did in China “for the first time”.
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‘PRAGMATIC’ ON CLIMATE: Chinese ambassador to the UK Zheng Zeguang argued China and the UK should work “more closely” to address climate change, in a Guardian commentary. (Zheng has also become China’s first permanent representative to the London-based International Maritime Organization, according to Xinhua.) In response to an article by UK government adviser Chris Stark saying that the UK should join China in becoming an “electrostate”, the Global Times published an editorial saying the UK’s energy transition “hinges on pragmatic cooperation” with China. Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping said China and Brazil should “ensure the success” of COP30, Xinhua reported.
CHINA’S SECURITY CONCERNS: China’s third-largest hydropower station has “fully transitioned away” from using western-made chips due to “national security and supply chain resilience concerns”, SCMP reported. The government also issued a notice on “strengthening” supervision of smart EVs, International Energy Net said, including software updates. China’s exports of permanent magnets and other rare-earth products “extended their recovery in July”, Bloomberg said, with export volumes rising 69% from a month earlier. The country is also warning foreign companies not to “stockpile rare earths and derived products such as magnets”, the Financial Times reported.
National ecology day
GREEN TO GOLD: China must “adopt green development approaches to grow our mountains of gold and silver”, Premier Li Qiang said, according to energy news outlet International Energy Net, at an event marking national ecology day. The event was also held on the 20th anniversary of President Xi Jinping’s speech in Zhejiang province, in which he emphasised that “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets”. [Read more on Xi’s “two mountains” theory in this analysis by Carbon Brief.] Li added that China must “steadily promote the green and low-carbon transformation of industries” and “collaborate with all parties to…address climate change”, it said.
OFFICIALS SPEAK: Speaking a few days earlier, Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin told a conference that “green and low-carbon innovation… [is] the new engine driving global economic growth”, the state-run newspaper China Daily reported, adding that he “attributed much of [China’s energy] transformation to the ‘two mountains’ theory”. National Development and Reform Commission head Zheng Shanjie wrote an essay on the theory for the ideological journal Research on Xi Jinping Economic Thought, saying China must “coordinate efforts to reduce carbon emissions, mitigate pollution, expand green spaces and promote economic growth”. Environment minister Huang Runqiu also said this in a speech broadcasted by the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily, adding that the tasks “may seem independent, but are actually closely interconnected”.
MEDIA REACTIONS: State media also issued commentaries on the theory, with the People’s Daily publishing a “Ren Ping” commentary – a byline indicating the article reflects party leaders’ views – saying it is a “beacon” for “global green development”. A People’s Daily commentary under the byline He Yin – which similarly signals that the article reflects party leaders’ views on international affairs – said the theory “contributes Chinese wisdom and solutions to building a clean and beautiful world”. An editorial in the state-supporting Global Times said: “Especially at a time when climate change is an urgent global challenge, [the theory] is timely, visionary and inspiring.”
Draft policies and pilot projects
COUNTING CARBON: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) issued four more draft methodologies for China’s voluntary carbon market, three of which address “gas recovery and utilisation” from oil- and gas-fields, BJX News reported. The MEE also published a draft revision to guidelines for provincial greenhouse gas inventories that aims to “enhance the scientific rigour, standardisation and practicality” of compiling the documents, another BJX News article said. Meanwhile, China will also develop “national carbon measurement centres” to help support the development of carbon measurement capabilities, finance outlet EastMoney said.
‘GREEN FUELS’: Meanwhile, China has established nine pilot projects to develop “green fuels” including ammonia, methanol and ethanol, finance news outlet Yicai said, adding that many of the projects use “green hydrogen as a raw material to produce” the chemicals. Separately, China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) said in a statement that it placed “great importance on the development of green liquid fuels”, with co-firing in coal-fired power plants an “important pathway…to achieve low-carbon development”, BJX News reported. According to another BJX News article, the NEA also said it attached “great importance” to the gas-power industry and would continue to plan new “peak-shaving gas-fired power plants”.
OTHER POLICIES: Elsewhere, the NEA released draft guidelines for “assessing the capacity of power grids to accommodate distributed power sources”, BJX News said. Guangdong has become the first province in China to “recognise greenhouse gas emissions quotas as legal collateral for loans”, Yicai reported. Xinhua reported that the China Consumer Association has issued draft guidelines for “green consumption” that explore how “every green consumption choice can contribute to significant emission reduction effects”.
Spotlight
Guest spotlight: How China could decarbonise its cement industry
China could use a “whole-of-system” approach to decarbonise its cement industry, according to a report released today by thinktank Climate Analytics.
In this issue, report author James Bowen, Climate Analytics climate and energy policy analyst, examines how China could reduce the sector’s country-sized emissions.
China’s challenge in managing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions accompanying its economic rise is best illustrated by cement.
From about 200m tonnes (Mt) in 1990, Chinese cement production – almost all of which is domestically consumed – climbed to 2.5bn tonnes (Gt) in 2014 and has remained near this level for about a decade.
Its cement sector now emits more than the entire economies of all but three countries other than China itself – more than 1.2bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) a year.
Cement decline significant but not enough for 1.5C
China’s main cement emissions challenge is that it continues to use far more cement and cement products per person than most countries.
Cement demand is now entering sustained decline as China’s economy restructures. Based on current trends, national production could drop below 1Gt by 2050.
But analysts have estimated that in addition to cutting demand – potentially even further than expected by 2050 – the emissions per unit of production would also need to fall, to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Specifically, they estimate that emissions per unit would need to fall to around 360kg of CO2 per tonne by 2030 and 55-90kg by 2050. If each tonne of future Chinese cement continues to generate about 550kg of CO2, as at present, then the sector will remain well off this pace.
This task is formidable. Cement is an inexpensive, high-performance building material with widely available feedstocks.
About 90% of its emissions come from producing clinker – a key ingredient.

Unavoidable process emissions account for the majority of these emissions. But producers globally have also not yet managed to eliminate the remainder of clinker emissions, which result from heating cement kilns.
Cement’s emissions intensity in China has also rebounded since 2015, driven by new restrictions on cement with lower clinker content, due to quality concerns.
Many areas of past emissions-reduction success in China’s cement sector, such as energy efficiency, are approaching their technical limits.
These challenges help explain why carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) remains prominent in cement net-zero roadmaps globally.
But CCUS remains expensive and underperforming, given relatively little improvement in learning rates and related cost reductions. Plans to deploy CCUS therefore present a risk of diverting attention from cheaper and more effective abatement options – or failing to deliver as expected. This could sustain considerable mid-century residual emissions, jeopardising net-zero goals.
A ‘whole-of-system’ approach
An alternative “whole-of-system” approach could help China meet its cement emissions challenge more cheaply, without relying so heavily on the promise of CCUS.
This could include enhanced cement demand reduction, such as by extending building lifespans; optimising how concrete is designed and used; using alternative materials – such as timber – where appropriate; and reducing and reusing construction waste.
It could also include accelerating uptake of lower-carbon production technologies, such as alternative cement kiln fuels, electrified kiln heating, as well as low-clinker and alternative binder cements.
A wide range of policy support could advance this whole-of-system approach, including by ensuring a just transition for cement workers and impacted communities.
China has said it is working to include cement in the national emissions trading system (ETS) by 2027.
China could also incentivise companies to use less clinker by adopting a cement-based ETS benchmark, rather than a clinker benchmark, which has encouraged EU firms to continue using the carbon-intensive material under the region’s own ETS.
China could also displace coal from kiln heating, by adopting European-like measures to encourage the use of biomass or waste-derived fuels.
Meanwhile, reform in areas including industry standards, finance, market access and research and development could accelerate adoption of other low-emissions technologies and processes.
Watch, read, listen
WINNING ON STEEL?: China is gradually putting the conditions in place to become a world leader in developing low-carbon steel, according to Canary Media.
TRANSMISSION OMISSION: Jiemian explored how limited transmission capacity and “pricing discrepancies” is hampering China’s development of sending low-carbon power across provinces.
CHINA’S RISE: The Asia Society broadcasted a panel event from its summer summit discussing the factors behind China’s rise as a leader in new-energy and other technologies.
INDUSTRIAL DECARBONISATION: The Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress assessed key steps for improving China’s ability to tackle industrial emissions through zero-carbon industrial parks, informed by an expert dialogue.
15
The number of people who died during flooding in northern China’s Gansu province in early August, China Daily reported.
13
The death toll of flooding this week in Inner Mongolia, another northern province, according to Reuters.
New science
Increasing tropical cyclone residence time along the Chinese coastline driven by track rotation
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Tropical cyclones now spend “substantially” more time travelling along China’s coastal regions than they did in the 1980s, according to new research. The study found that tropical cyclones travelling along the coast of China have “become more parallel to the coastline since the 1980s” and the amount of time they spend travelling along the Chinese coast has increased by 2.5 hours per decade during this period. It added that these changes have “led to prolonged durations of heavy rainfall in the coastal regions”.
Resources, Conservation and Recycling
A new study estimated that the average carbon intensity of the electricity used in China fell from 983 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour (gCO2/kwh) in 1997 to 545gCO2/kwh in 2022, “cumulatively avoiding 15.8bn tonnes of potential CO2 emissions”. The study used electric-generating unit level data and decomposition analysis to evaluate the effects of different decarbonisation policies on power plants. It found that changes to the fuel mix in China’s coal-fired power plants, reductions in the amount of heat energy needed to generate electricity and deployment of large-sized plants contributed most to reducing carbon emissions.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 21 August 2025: China’s CO2 decline; ‘Two mountains’; China’s cement challenge appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 21 August 2025: China’s CO2 decline; ‘Two mountains’; China’s cement challenge
Climate Change
Coles, Woolworths failing on deforestation commitments
SYDNEY, Wednesday 26 August 2026 — New 2026 Sustainability Reports released by supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths this week demonstrate the retailers are failing on their commitments to end deforestation in their supply chains.
Adele Chasson, Nature Policy Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said:
“These so-called sustainability reports are revealing. Despite their public commitments in 2024 and 2025, neither Coles nor Woolworths have taken deforestation-linked beef off their shelves. Meanwhile, bulldozers continue to tear up forests and bushland, pushing wildlife closer to extinction and causing mass toxic runoff to flow into the Great Barrier Reef. Millions of native animals like koalas are losing their homes to beef pastures each year, while the big supermarkets put off action.
“Australians would be shocked to know that beef on the shelves of our biggest supermarkets could be pushing threatened species to the brink of extinction. Collectively Coles and Woolworths have made more than $2 billion in profits in the last year, profiting from the destruction of wildlife and precious Australian nature. Coles and Woolworths owe it to shoppers to deliver on their promises and end deforestation in their supply chains now.
“As big beef buyers, Coles and Woolworths have an essential role to play in keeping Australia’s unique forests standing. They can help stop the Great Barrier Reef from being poisoned by runoff and protect iconic forest wildlife by taking deforestation off their shelves. It’s time these big companies put their money where their mouths are and follow through on their promise of sourcing and supplying deforestation-free beef.”
Climate Change
New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation
New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.
The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.
Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.
“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.
Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.
Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.
Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.
In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.
Corporate lobbying in the shadows
Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.
“That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”
The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.
The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.
Green groups fail to stop bill
The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.
But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.
A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.
“Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035
Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.
But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.
The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.
Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”
Copycat legislation on the rise
New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.
In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.
The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.
UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court
Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.
“Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.
The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.
New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation
Climate Change
Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry
Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS.
Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.
Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.
The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.
The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.
Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output
Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.
Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.
Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.
Stronger environmental enforcement
Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.
This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.
The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.
In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.
None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.
Unequal benefits
For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.
In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.
Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.
The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.
None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.
The post Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry appeared first on Climate Home News.
Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry
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