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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Huang reported to lawmakers on climate action

NPCSC REPORT: Huang Runqiu, head of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, told Chinese lawmakers that managing the country’s carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity has become “more challenging” due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, extreme weather and growing trade tensions, Bloomberg reported. According to the full text of Huang’s remarks, made during a report to the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, the minister remarked that China’s progress on meeting the target is “broadly in line” with its current international climate pledge for 2030. [Its CO2 intensity target for 2025 is likely to be missed.] He added that challenges have worsened around balancing climate action with economic development, managing “overall and local interests” and “aligning short-term with medium-to-long-term goals”.

TARGETS ‘SURPASSED’: Huang also highlighted the progress China had made in other areas, having “already surpassed” targets for wind and solar power capacity additions and new forest stock volume, the state-run newspaper China Daily said. According to current affairs outlet China News, Huang also noted that China has continued its “efforts to enhance the clean and efficient utilisation of fossil fuels”, including “reforms” for coal-fired power plants and “steadily increasing” gas production and utilisation.

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GLOBAL INFLUENCE: China is “making important contributions to the implementation of the Paris Agreement”, Huang also said, according to the full text of his remarks, having “driven substantial reductions in the costs of wind and solar power” and “advanced international cooperation on climate change”, such as in south-south collaboration. He noted that in the face of “uncertainties”, such as the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the expansion of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, China will enhance its “influence, guidance and shaping power in global climate governance”.

Movements ahead of UNGA

COP30 SIGNALS: Former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua travelled with Huang to Brussels to meet EU climate lead Teresa Ribera on 16 September, Reuters reported, in order to restart “climate negotiations” ahead of the UN general assembly and COP30. It added that current climate envoy Liu Zhenmin was not expected to be present. (A photo posted on Bluesky confirmed Xie’s presence in the city.) A few days earlier, COP30 executive director Ana Toni met Huang in Beijing, where he told her that China will support Brazil in hosting a COP that “sends a strong signal” about the importance of the Paris Agreement, climate news outlet Tanpaifang reported. Toni told reporters that Brazil expects a “huge Chinese delegation” at COP, the Global Times said. She also spoke at an event at Tsinghua University attended by Xie and followed online by Carbon Brief.

UK-CHINA: Meanwhile, the UK and China established a new industrial decarbonisation working group, according to a UK government statement, focusing on areas including carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Daniel Brooker, the head of the China office at UK Research and Innovation, told finance news outlet Yicai that climate cooperation with China is “one of our immediate priorities”.

INTERCONNECTED WORLD: Separately, vice-president Han Zheng used a conference speech to urge other countries to cooperate on developing “renewable energy generation, grid interconnectivity and smart energy systems” as a way of advancing the global energy transition, according to the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily.

First auction under new renewable pricing system

LOWER PRICES: Shandong province held the country’s first renewable power auction, following the launch of new rules for the pricing of wind and solar power, industry news outlet BJX News reported, with the auction price of wind power set at 0.319 yuan per kilowatt-hour (yuan/kWh) and those for solar set at 0.225 yuan/kWh. The low prices set by the “bellwether” province signalled that “renewables prices [across China] in the future will be lower than under the previous system”, Reuters said, adding that it could “discourage” further investment. On LinkedIn, David Fishman, principal at the Lantau Group, said that while the wind power prices would likely be acceptable for developers, the solar prices would be “very tough”, citing one as saying they would likely “abandon” all future projects in the province.

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PLANS ‘PROMPT’: Meanwhile, the National Energy Administration (NEA) urged local governments during a video conference to “promptly” release their plans for implementing the pricing reforms, energy news outlet International Energy Net said, to “stabilise” industry expectations. Separately, the NEA revealed during the conference that, between January and July 2025, China’s installed renewable energy capacity grew by 283 gigawatts (GW) to 2,171GW, current affairs outlet China News reported. In August, BJX News said, thermal-power generation grew by 1.7% – slower than July’s growth rate – while wind power grew by just over 20%, solar grew by 16% and hydropower fell by 10%.

LOCALISED PROJECTS: The NEA also co-released a notice on “improving pricing mechanisms” for localised new-energy projects, International Energy Net reported, referring to projects that “both generate and consume electricity” such as zero-carbon industrial parks. The notice outlined benchmarks for how much of their own renewable energy such projects should sell and consume, clarifying that such projects should “bear transmission and distribution fees, system operation costs and other expenses”, it added.

China set targets for new AI energy projects

AI PILOTS: China plans to increase the use of AI in the country’s energy sector, state news agency Xinhua reported, in order to “enhance energy security, improve operational efficiency and support the country’s green and low-carbon transition”. China will “promote the deep application of at least five specialised large models”, which could be used in the power grid, power generation, coal, oil, gas or other areas, according to industry news outlet China Energy News. It also reported that China plans to identify ten or more “replicable, scalable and competitive” pilot projects. Consulting firm Trivium China wrote in a note that the plan “positions AI as an indispensable tool” on climate change.

DOUBLING STORAGE: China aims to “almost double” new-energy storage capacity by 2027 to 180GW, according to a new industry plan, Reuters reported. Lithium-ion battery storage is likely to comprise the bulk of new additions, economic news outlet Jiemian said. Meanwhile, according to a new government action plan for 2025-2026, new-energy power equipment companies are expected to achieve “steady” annual revenue increase, while traditional power equipment firms should aim to grow “approximately 6%” and “leading” companies by 10%, Xinhua said.

POLICY WATCH: China adopted the atomic energy law, its first foundational law for the nuclear sector, Jiemian reported. China’s environmental code – also the first of its kind – remains under discussion, according to China News. Elsewhere, the country updated its plan to “advance the three-north shelterbelt forest programme”, China Daily said. The National Development and Reform Commission called for “exploring” pathways for real estate investment trusts to invest in ultra-high voltage transmission projects, BJX News reported. BJX News also covered new guidance on improving electricity spot markets.

Spotlight 

Q&A: Will China and the BRICS fill the ‘leadership gap’ on climate change?

Amid a rapidly fracturing geopolitical order, there have been growing calls for China to “step into [the] leadership gap” left by the US on climate change.

One platform that it could use to do so is BRICS, an increasingly influential and assertive group that includes COP30 host Brazil.

In this issue, Carbon Brief explores whether or not China, alongside the BRICS, could become climate leaders. The full article is available on Carbon Brief’s website.

The BRICS group represents a number of emerging economies that aim to “increas[e] the influence of global south countries in international governance”.

Active full members include founding members Brazil, Russia, India and China, as well as South Africa, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Iran.

Together, they represent 27% of global gross domestic product, 49% of the world’s population and 52% of carbon dioxide emissions, according to Carbon Brief calculations.

Four of the members – Brazil, China, India and South Africa – also form the BASIC bloc, a group with a significant voice at UN climate summits and other negotiations.

How do the BRICS approach climate change?

Lucas Carlos Lima, professor of international law at the Federal University of Minas Gerais in Brazil, wrote that recent joint statements show the BRICS had “placed climate change squarely at the centre of the bloc’s agenda”.

In July, the BRICS summit resulted in a joint declaration demanding that “accessible, timely and affordable climate finance” is provided to developing countries.

The statement also highlighted the nations’ “resolve to remain united in the pursuit of the purpose and goals of the Paris Agreement”.

However, the BRICS leaders’ declaration also “acknowledge[s] fossil fuels will still play an important role in the world’s energy mix”.

The inclusion of this language “undermin[es] the positives” of the bloc’s other statements on climate action, according to a response from Jacobo Ocharan, head of political strategies at Climate Action Network International.

What is the role of fossil fuels in the BRICS?

Many BRICS nations remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels, both for electricity generation and to support their wider energy systems.

However, this picture is starting to shift, with almost all BRICS members having adopted net-zero targets ranging from 2050 to 2070.

More tangibly, the addition of new clean-power projects means that fossil-fueled electricity generating capacity now makes up less than half of the installed total in the BRICS group as a whole in 2024, as shown in the figure below.

BRICS_capacity-targets
Left: The share of fossil fuels and low-carbon sources in the total installed electricity generating capacity of each of the BRICS countries, as of 2024, compared to the global average. Right: The year by which BRICS countries have pledged to reach net-zero. Source: Global Energy Monitor, Climate Action Tracker.

Non-fossil power, driven by “unprecedented” renewable energy growth in China, India and Brazil, accounted for 53% of the installed electricity generating capacity in BRICS countries in 2024, according to thinktank Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

Continued BRICS focus on clean energy makes it “unlikely that fossil capacity will overtake non-fossil again”, James Norman, research analyst at GEM, told Carbon Brief.

Several BRICS members, including Russia, the UAE, Iran and Indonesia, are nevertheless leading producers and exporters of fossil fuels.

China and India, meanwhile, are by some distance the world’s largest and second-largest coal users, respectively.

Nevertheless, in the short term, this might not affect the BRICS group’s climate ambition overall.

Russia does not seem to be “blocking” the “solid outcomes” of recent BRICS climate negotiations, said Kate Logan, director of the China climate hub and climate diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI).

Will China and the BRICS emerge as climate leaders?

With the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration, there have been increasing calls for China to take up the mantle of climate leadership.

China, at least publicly, is eschewing these calls, but does seem to be open to agreeing to “demonstrate leadership” in tandem with others, as seen in an EU-China joint statement on climate change published in late July.

Many are watching for signs of whether China’s upcoming international climate pledge, which may be published next week, will contain ambitious targets that will encourage greater global ambition.

Beatriz Mattos, research coordinator at Brazil-based climate-research institute Plataforma CIPÓ, tells Carbon Brief that China’s position as a “major investor in the renewable energy sector” means there is “enormous potential” for both it and the BRICS to assume a climate leadership role.

Watch, read, listen

NEW PARTNERS: The China-Global South Podcast examined the “stunning 113% jump” in Chinese investment into Brazil, a significant share of which was in oil and renewable energy.

PEAK ESTIMATE: A new report by Greenpeace East Asia found that China could “peak its power emissions in 2025”, at just over 5bn tonnes.

INSIDER VOICES: Three leading experts on China’s energy transition shared their insights in an event broadcasted by the Center for China and Globalization.

RESHAPING ENERGY: Ember published a “comprehensive review” of China’s energy transition and how it is “transforming global energy realities”.


$210 billion

The amount of foreign investment pledged by Chinese clean-energy technology manufacturers since 2022, according to a new report by the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab covered by Bloomberg.


New science 

Carbon emissions from forest harvest and fire offset approximately half of carbon sequestration of forestation in China during 1986-2020

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

A new study examined the combined role of “forest activities and fire disturbance” (FAFD) on the effectiveness of China’s carbon sinks. It estimated that, between 1986 and 2020, the carbon emissions resulting from harvesting forests and forest fires offset around 54% of the carbon sequestration occurring through forestation. These findings, the authors said, “highlight the importance of accounting for carbon emissions from deforestation and forest fire when aiming to maximise carbon sequestration through forestation”.

Temperature extremes in early life and human capital: evidence from China’s labour market

Climatic Change

“Early-life exposure” to both extreme heat and extreme cold has “significant and persistent negative effects on adult labour income”, new research has found. The study, which draws from a dataset of more than one million individuals from China, said that, under a scenario with moderate warming (SSP2-4.5), average labour-income loss across China could total 0.77%, with the provinces of Qinghai, Henan, Fujian and Gansu most severely affected. It added that the impact of extreme heat on foetuses is “particularly pronounced”, with significant implications for future earnings.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

The post China Briefing 18 September 2025: MEE on the move; AI and energy; BRICS and climate    appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 18 September 2025: MEE on the move; AI and energy; BRICS and climate   

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Maryland Passes Energy Bill That Delivers Short-Term Relief, Locks Ratepayers into Long-Term Nuclear Subsidy

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Advocates say Maryland lawmakers passed consequential energy proposals without adequate analysis or public debate during the 2026 session.

Maryland lawmakers’ new solution for rising utility bills reduces a surcharge funding an effective energy-efficiency program, offers rebates by raiding the state’s clean energy fund and includes subsidies for nuclear power that advocates say may prove costly over time.

Maryland Passes Energy Bill That Delivers Short-Term Relief, Locks Ratepayers into Long-Term Nuclear Subsidy

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To avoid COP mistakes, Santa Marta conference must be shielded from fossil fuel influence

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Rachel Rose Jackson is a climate researcher and international policy expert whose work involves monitoring polluter interference at the UNFCCC and advancing pathways to protect against it.

Next week, dozens of governments will gather in the Colombian city of Santa Marta for a conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels.

The conference is a first of its kind, in name and in practice. It’s a welcome change to see a platform for global climate action actually acknowledge the primary cause of the climate crisis – fossil fuels. This sends a clear message about what needs to be done to avoid tumbling off the climate cliff edge we are precariously balancing on.

The agenda set for governments to hash out goes further than any other multilateral space has managed to date. Over the week, participants will discuss how to overcome the economic dependence on fossil fuels, transform supply and demand, and advance international cooperation to transition away from fossil fuels.

Alongside the conference, academics, civil society, movements and others are convening to put forward their visions of a just and forever fossil fuel phase out. The conference can help shape pathways and tools governments can use to achieve a fossil-fuel-free future, particularly if the dialogue begins with an honest assessment of “fair shares.”

    This means assessing who is most responsible for emissions and exploring truer means of international collaboration that can unlock the technology, resources and finances necessary for a just transition.

    Fossil fuel-driven violence is spiraling in places like Palestine, Iran, and Venezuela. Climate disasters are causing billions and billions of dollars in damage annually with no climate reparations in sight. All of this remains recklessly unaddressed on account of corporate-funded fascism.

    We know the world’s addiction to fossil fuels must end. Is it surprising that a global governmental convening chooses now to try to tackle fossil fuels? It shouldn’t be, but it is.

    COP failures

    By contrast, meetings of governments signed up to the longest-standing multilateral forum for climate action—the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – took nearly three decades before it officially responded to the power built by movements and acknowledged the need to address fossil fuel use at COP28 in 2023.

    Even then, this recognition came riddled with loopholes. It may seem illogical that a forum established by governments in 1992 to coordinate a response to climate change should take decades to acknowledge the root of the problem. Yet there are clear reasons why arenas like the UNFCCC have consistently failed to curb fossil fuels decade after decade.

    What would the outcome be when a fossil fuel executive literally oversaw COP28 and when Coca-Cola was one of the sponsors for COP27?

    How can strong action take hold when, year after year, the UNFCCC’s COPs are inundated with thousands of fossil fuel lobbyists?

    And how can justice be achieved when there are zero safeguards in place to protect against the conflicts of interest these polluters have?

    Colombia pledges to exit investment protection system after fossil fuel lawsuits

    Justly transitioning off fossil fuels cannot be charted when the very actors that have knowingly caused the climate crisis are at the helm—the same actors that consistently spend billions to spread denial and delay.

    Unless platforms like the UNFCCC take concerted action to protect climate policymaking from the profit-at-all-costs agenda of polluters, the world will not deliver the climate action people and the planet deserve.

    The impacts of climate action failure are now endured on a daily basis in some way by each of us – and especially by frontline communities, Indigenous Peoples, youth, women, and communities in the Global South. We must be closing gaps and unlocking pathways for advancing the strongest, fairest and fastest action possible.

    Learn from mistakes

    Yet, as we chase a fossil-fuel-free horizon, it’s essential that we learn from the mistakes of the past. We do not have the luxury or time to repeat them. History shows us we must protect against the polluting interests that want the world addicted to fossil fuels for as long as humanly possible.

    We must also reject their schemes that undermine a just transition—dangerous distractions like carbon markets and Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) that are highly risky and spur vast harm, all while allowing for polluters to continue polluting.

    Fossil Free Zones can be on-ramps to the clean energy transition

    We get to a fossil-fuel-free future by following the leadership of the movements, communities and independent experts who hold the knowledge and lived experience to guide us there.

    We succeed by protecting against those who have a track record of prioritising greed over the sacredness of life.

    And we arrive at a world liberated from fossil fuels by doing all of these things from day one, before the toxicity of the fossil fuel industry’s poison takes hold.

    If this gathering in Santa Marta can do this, then it can help set a new precedent for what people-centered and planet-saving climate action looks like. When everything hangs in the balance, there can be no if’s, and’s, or but’s. There’s only here and now, what history shows us must be done, and what we know is lost if we do not.

    The post To avoid COP mistakes, Santa Marta conference must be shielded from fossil fuel influence appeared first on Climate Home News.

    To avoid COP mistakes, Santa Marta conference must be shielded from fossil fuel influence

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    Q&A: How the UK government aims to ‘break link between gas and electricity prices’

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    The UK government has announced a series of measures to “double down on clean power” in response to the energy crisis sparked by the Iran war.

    The conflict has caused a spike in fossil-fuel prices – and the high cost of gas is already causing electricity prices to increase, particularly in countries such as the UK.

    In response, alongside plans to speed the expansion of renewables and electric vehicles, the UK government says it will “move…to break [the] link between gas and electricity prices”.

    Ahead of the announcement, there had been speculation that this could mean a radical change to the way the UK electricity market operates, such as moving gas plants into a strategic reserve.

    However, the government is taking a more measured approach with two steps that will weaken – but not completely sever – the link between gas and electricity prices.

    • From 1 July 2026, the government will increase the “electricity generator levy”, a windfall tax on older renewable energy and nuclear plants, using part of the revenue to limit energy bills.
    • The government will encourage older renewable projects to sign fixed-price contracts, which it says will “help protect families and businesses from higher bills when gas prices spike”.

    There has been a cautious response to the plans, with one researcher telling Carbon Brief that it is a “big step in the right direction in policy terms”, but that the impact might be “relatively modest”.

    Another says that, while the headlines around the government plans “suggest a decisive shift” in terms of “breaking the link” between gas and power, “the reality is more incremental”.

    Why are electricity prices linked to gas?

    The price of electricity is usually set by the price of gas-fired power plants in the UK, Italy and many other European markets.

    This is due to the “marginal pricing” system used in most electricity markets globally.

    (For more details of what “marginal pricing” means and how it works, see the recent Carbon Brief explainer on why gas usually sets the price of electricity and what the alternatives are.)

    As a result, whenever there is a spike in the cost of gas, electricity prices go up too.

    This has been illustrated twice in recent years: during the global energy crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022; and since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February 2026.

    Notably, however, the expansion of clean energy is already weakening the link between gas and electricity, a trend that will strengthen as more renewables and nuclear plants are built.

    The figure below shows that recent UK wholesale electricity prices have been lower than those in Italy, as a result of the expansion of renewable sources.

    The contrast with prices in Spain is even larger, where thinktank Ember says “strong solar and wind growth [has] reduced the influence of expensive coal and gas power”.

    Chart showing that renewables are 'decoupling' power prices from gas in some countries
    Wholesale electricity prices in the UK, Spain and Italy, € per megawatt hour. Source: Ember.

    The share of hours where gas sets the price of power on the island of Great Britain (namely, England, Scotland and Wales) has fallen from more than 90% in 2021 to around 60% today, according to the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). (Northern Ireland is part of the separate grid on the island of Ireland.)

    This is largely because an increasing share of generation is coming from renewables with “contracts for difference” (CfDs), which offer a fixed price for each unit of electricity.

    CfD projects are paid this fixed price for the electricity they generate, regardless of the wholesale price of power. As such, they dilute the impact of gas on consumer bills.

    The rise of CfD projects means that the weeks since the Iran war broke out have coincided with the first-ever extended periods without gas-fired power stations in the wholesale market.

    This shows how, in the longer term, the shift to clean energy backed by fixed-price CfDs will almost completely sever the link between gas and electricity prices.

    The National Energy System Operator (NESO) estimated that the government’s target for clean power by 2030 could see the share of hours with prices set by gas falling to just 15%.

    What is the government proposing?

    For now, however, about one-third of UK electricity generation comes from renewable projects with an older type of contract under the “renewables obligation” scheme (RO).

    It is these projects that the new government proposals are targeting.

    The government hopes to move some of these projects onto fixed-price contracts, which would no longer be tied to gas prices, further weakening the link between gas and electricity prices overall.

    When RO projects generate electricity, they earn the wholesale price, which is usually set by gas power. In addition, they are paid a fixed subsidy via “renewable obligation certificates” (ROCs).

    This means that the cost of a significant proportion of renewable electricity is linked to gas prices. Moreover, it means that, when gas prices are high, these projects earn windfall profits.

    In recognition of this, the Conservative government introduced the “electricity generator levy” (EGL) in 2022. Under the EGL, certain generators pay a 45% tax on earnings above a benchmark price, which rises with inflation and currently sits at £82 per megawatt hour (MWh).

    The tax applies to renewables obligation projects and to old nuclear plants.

    The current government will now increase the rate of the windfall tax to 55% from 1 July 2026, as well as extending the levy beyond its previously planned end date in 2028.

    It says it will use some of the additional revenue to “support businesses and households with the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East on the cost of living”. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said:

    “This ensures that a larger proportion of any exceptional revenues from high gas prices are passed back to government, providing a vital revenue stream so that money is available for government to support businesses and families with the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East.”

    The increase in the windfall tax may also help to achieve the government’s second aim, which is to persuade older renewable projects to accept new fixed-price contracts.

    Simon Evans on Bluesky: Details of UK govt plans to break influence of gas on electricity prices

    Reeves made this aim explicit in her comments to MPs, saying the higher levy “will encourage older, low-carbon electricity generators, which supply about a third of our power, to move from market pricing to fixed-price contracts for difference”.

    (This is an adaptation of a proposal for “pot zero” fixed-price contracts, made by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) in 2022, see below for more details.)

    As with traditional CfDs, the new fixed-price contracts would not be tied to the price of gas power. Instead of earning money on the wholesale electricity market, these generators would take a fixed-price “wholesale CfD”. In addition, they would be exempted from the windfall tax and would continue to receive their fixed subsidy via ROCs.

    The government says this will be voluntary. It will offer further details “in due course” and will then consult on the plans “later this year”, with a view to running an auction for such contracts next year.

    It adds: “Government will only offer contracts to electricity generators where it represents clear value for money for consumers.”

    Leo Hickman on Bluesky: UK energy secretary Ed Miliband appearing on BBC Breakfast

    (It is currently unclear if the proposals for new fixed-price contracts would also apply to older nuclear plants. Last month, the government said it intended to “enable existing nuclear generating stations to become eligible for CfD support for lifetime-extension activities”.)

    What is not being proposed?

    Contrary to speculation ahead of today’s announcement, the government is not taking forward any of the more radical ideas for breaking the link between gas and electricity prices.

    Many of these ideas had already been considered in detail – and rejected – during the government’s “review of electricity market arrangements” (REMA) process.

    This includes the idea of creating two separate markets, one “green power pool” for renewables and another for conventional sources of electricity.

    It also includes the idea of operating the market under “pay as bid” pricing. This has been promoted as a way to ensure that each power plant is only paid the amount that it bid to supply electricity, rather than the higher price of the “marginal” unit, which is usually gas.

    However, “pay as bid” would have been expected to change bidding behaviour rather than cutting bills, with generators guessing what the marginal unit would have been and bidding at that level.

    Finally, the government has also not taken forward the idea of putting gas-fired power stations in a strategic reserve that sits outside the electricity market.

    Last year, this had been proposed jointly by consultancy Stonehaven and NGO Greenpeace. In March, they shared updated figures with Carbon Brief showing that – according to their analysis – this could have cut bills by a total of around £6bn per year, or about £80 per household.

    However, some analysts argued that it would have distorted the electricity market, removing incentives to build batteries and for consumers to use power more flexibly.

    What will the impact be?

    The government’s plan for voluntary fixed-price contracts has received a cautious response.

    UKERC had put forward a similar proposal in 2022, under which older nuclear and renewable projects would have received a fixed-price “pot zero” CfD.

    (This name refers to the fact that CfDs are given to new onshore wind and solar under “pot one”, with technologies such as offshore wind bidding into a separate “pot two”.)

    In April 2026, UKERC published updated analysis suggesting that its “pot zero” reforms could have saved consumers as much as £10bn a year – roughly £120 per household.

    Callum McIver, research fellow at the University of Strathclyde and a member of the UKERC, tells Carbon Brief that the government proposals are a “big step in the right direction in policy terms”.

    However, he says the “bill impact potential is lower” than UKERC’s “pot zero” idea, because it would leave renewables obligation projects still earning their top-up subsidy via ROCs.

    As such, McIver tells Carbon Brief that, in his view, the near-term impact “could be relatively modest”. Still, he says that the idea could “insulate electricity prices” from gas:

    “The measures are very welcome and, with good take-up, they have the potential to insulate electricity prices further from the impact of continued or future gas price shocks, which should be regarded as a win in its own right.”

    In a statement, UKERC said the government plan “stops short of the full pot-zero proposal, since it will leave the RO subsidy in place”. It adds:

    “This makes the potential savings smaller, but it will break the link with gas prices. The devil will be in the detail, but provided the majority of generators join the scheme, most of the UK’s power generation fleet will have a price that is not related to the global price of gas.”

    Marc Hedin, head of research for Western Europe and Africa at consultancy Aurora Energy Research, tells Carbon Brief that, while the headlines “suggest a decisive shift” in terms of “breaking the link” between gas and power, “the reality is more incremental”. He adds:

    “In principle, moving a larger share of generation onto fixed prices would reduce consumers’ exposure to gas‑driven price spikes and aligns well with the direction already taken for new build [generators receiving a CfD].”

    However, he cautioned that “poorly calibrated [fixed] prices would transfer value to generators at consumers’ expense, while overly aggressive pricing could result in low participation”.

    In an emailed statement, Sam Hollister, head of UK market strategy for consultancy LCP, says that the principle of the government’s approach is to “bring stability to the wholesale market and avoid some of the disruption that a more radical break might have caused”.

    However, he adds that the reforms will not “fundamentally reduce residential energy bills today”.

    Johnny Gowdy, a director of thinktank Regen, writes in a response to the plans that while both the increased windfall tax and the fixed-price contracts “have merit and could save consumers money”, there were also “pitfalls and risks” that the government will need to consider.

    These include that a higher windfall tax could “spook investors”. He writes:

    “A challenge for policymakers is that, while the EGL carries an investment risk downside, unless there is a very significant increase in wholesale prices, the tax revenue made by the current EGL could be quite modest.”

    Gowdy says that the proposed fixed-price contracts for older renewables “is not a new idea, but its time may have come”. He writes:

    “It would offer a practical way to hedge consumers and generators against volatile wholesale prices. The key challenge, however, is to come up with a strike price that is fair for consumers and does not lock future consumers into higher prices, given that we expect wholesale prices to fall over the coming decade.”

    Gowdy adds that it might be possible to use the scheme as a way to support “repowering”, where old windfarms replace ageing equipment with new turbines.

    On LinkedIn, Adam Bell, partner at Stonehaven and former head of government energy policy, welcomes the principle of the government’s approach, saying: “The right response to yet another fossil fuel crisis is to make our economy less dependent on fossil fuels.”
    However, he adds on Bluesky that the proposals were “unlikely to reduce consumer bills”. He says this is because they offered a weak incentive for generators to accept fixed-price contracts.

    The post Q&A: How the UK government aims to ‘break link between gas and electricity prices’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    Q&A: How the UK government aims to ‘break link between gas and electricity prices’

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