The Iran war has spurred a range of commentators to renew calls for the UK government to issue new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
They argue that new domestic drilling could boost energy security at a time of volatility in major oil-and-gas producing countries in the Middle East.
However, such arguments overlook that the North Sea basin is in long-term decline and issuing new licences would only make a fractional difference to new production.
Carbon Brief analysis shows that the UK’s gas production in the North Sea is set to drop 99% by 2050, when compared to 2025 levels, with new licences pushing this figure down only slightly to 97%. (Oil production is also in long-term decline.)
Additionally, the analysis shows that the continued expansion of renewables and low-carbon technologies offers far greater protection against volatile gas imports than new domestic drilling.
The chart below shows how the roughly 15 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar power secured in the latest UK renewable-energy auction will avoid the need to import 78 “Q-Flex” tankers full of liquified natural gas (LNG) each year by 2030. This gas would cost roughly £4bn at current prices, which stood at 126p per therm as of 11 March.
(Gas can be either transported via pipelines or compressed into LNG and shipped across oceans, as is the case for gas coming into the UK from the US, Qatar or Algeria, for example.)
This is nearly six times more than the extra domestic gas production in 2030 if new licences are issued for North Sea drilling, according to Carbon Brief analysis of data from the UK government’s North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA).
Moreover, the 15GW of new renewables were secured in a single auction round. Another auction, likely to add significantly to this tally, is due to take place later in 2026.
Industry sources often stress the potential for the discovery of new North Sea reserves in the future. But, even if such discoveries were to materialise, they would take many years to start yielding gas, even as the UK moves away from fossil fuels altogether.
Other measures, such as replacing millions of gas boilers with heat pumps, would also be more effective at curbing the UK’s reliance on imports of foreign gas, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Even changes to people’s behaviour, such as adjusting the “flow temperature” on gas boilers to save energy while maintaining comfort levels, would reduce gas demand significantly, if performed at scale.
The opposition Conservatives and the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party have called for more drilling in the North Sea. At the same time, they have pledged to end support for renewables, heat pumps and the UK’s legally binding target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, which was legislated by the Conservatives in 2019.
Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that this combination of actions – issuing new licenses for the North Sea while rolling back climate policies – would be very likely to increase the UK’s dependence on imported gas, rather than to reduce it.
(This is in line with analysis from the National Energy System Operator, NESO, which found that reaching the UK’s net-zero target would cut fossil-fuel imports, relative to a scenario that rowed back on climate action while boosting domestic fossil-fuel production.)
Industry lobby group Offshore Energies UK has commissioned statistical modelling that it says shows that more oil and gas could still be extracted from the North Sea than expected by the NSTA, if the government were to make various policy changes.
However, this modelling still shows a rapid decline in North Sea production.
After decades of drilling, the majority of reserves left in the North Sea are oil. Around 80% of oil produced in UK waters is currently exported to the global market.
The UN Emissions Gap Report in 2023 said that the coal, oil and gas extracted over the lifetime of producing and under-construction mines and fields, as of 2018, “would emit more than 3.5 times the carbon budget available” for meeting the Paris Agreement’s aspirational target of keeping global warming to no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
At the COP30 climate summit in Brazil in November 2025, the UK joined a group of more than 80 countries in calling for a global phaseout of fossil fuels.
Methodology
This analysis is based on additional UK domestic gas production or reduced gas demand in 2030 and is measured in terms of the number of LNG tanker deliveries avoided.
The estimate of additional gas production in 2030 is taken from the NSTA projections published in February 2026. The extra output is from NSTA’s “illustrative” estimates for the development of “undeveloped discoveries” and “future discoveries”.
The gas demand avoided by new wind and solar is based on the latest “AR7” auction for new renewables, the results of which were announced in early 2026. It assumes that offshore wind operates with a “load factor” of 50%, onshore wind at 36% and solar at 12%. The avoided gas demand is based on replacing gas-fired electricity generation.
For heat pumps, the estimate assumes a typical home with a gas demand of 11,500 kilowatt hours (kWh) per year, replacing an 85% efficient gas boiler with a 300% efficient heat pump.
It assumes that the electricity to power these heat pumps is drawn from the average mix of electricity generation in 2030. It also assumes that the “carbon intensity” of generation – the emissions per unit of output – falls to 50g of carbon dioxide per kWh, implying that roughly 12% of electricity generation is from gas.
The amount of gas avoided by switching to heat pumps would be roughly halved if all of these heat pumps drew all of their electricity needs from gas-fired power stations.
The post Analysis: Why clean energy will cut UK gas imports by more than North Sea drilling appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: Why clean energy will cut UK gas imports by more than North Sea drilling
A future powered by clean energy would be not only more affordable, but potentially more peaceful.
From our collaborating partner “Living on Earth,” public radio’s environmental news magazine, an interview by host Steve Curwood with Michael Klare, an emeritus professor of peace and security studies at Hampshire College.
In a Q&A with Climate Home News, the head of sustainability at global lighting company Signify explains how the firm is doubling down on its efforts to protect the climate and strengthen resilience.
In March, Signify launched its latest corporate sustainability programme, “Brighter Lives, Better World 2030”.
The programme is the third iteration of a project that started in 2016, aimed at shifting how the company – and its customers – can reduce their environmental impact.
It centres on enhanced targets to improve energy efficiency, cut greenhouse gas emissions and promote the circular economy. In addition, Signify has set itself a challenging goal to source 41% of its revenue from solutions “that support benefits beyond illumination” by the end of 2030, up from 31% in 2024. Those benefits include efficient food production and increased access to solar lighting.
Signify is aiming to save 60 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity for its customers; achieve a 35% reduction in the CO2 emissions intensity of its portfolio; and grow its circular product business from 10% to 27.5% of revenue.
Climate Home News spoke with the company’s global head of sustainability, Maurice Loosschilder, to find out how the Netherlands-based multinational plans to reach its targets despite a tough political landscape for green action.
Q: How does Signify’s new sustainability programme build on lessons learned from previous versions?
A: If we look back a little bit, it is a natural next step. Signify [formerly Philips Lighting] became a standalone company roughly 10 years ago and in 2016 we launched our first “Brighter Lives, Better World 2020” programme at the same time.
The first programme mirrored developments in the lighting industry and was very much based on our own operations: reaching 100% renewable electricity, zero waste to landfill in our manufacturing facilities, increasing the energy efficiency in our own portfolio.
Since then, we’ve moved on to think about our entire value chain and the wider social contributions we want our work to be making. But we still want to be thinking about how to improve our own business. Our continued target to double the amount of women in leadership positions is an example of that.
Q: Looking at the political climate, both in the US and Europe, there isn’t the same concern for environmental issues as there was a few years ago. Many corporates are perceived to be rolling back on their environmental commitments. How are you as a company navigating some of these challenges?
A: This is not something new. If we look back on the last five to 10 years, we’ve seen a lot of disruption and change in the market. We’ve had a global pandemic, supply chain disruptions, energy insecurity. At the same time we’ve seen the increased impacts of climate change and all of that is changing the dynamics of doing business right now.
I think these changes have really tested resilience – the resilience of companies, the resilience of people, the resilience of societies. We really believe that resilience is becoming more and more important to businesses right now. And if you look at what a resilient company is, it is one that decarbonises faster, invests in people, invests in circular solutions and makes its business model more circular. And that’s exactly what we have focused on. It’s about making sure we can cope, and help our customers cope, with changing market circumstances and the geopolitical tensions we see in the world.
Q: Turning to your own commitments, do you feel you have set the right balance between ambitious and achievable?
A: Yes, we strongly believe this programme is the right one for us and our customers, and has been informed by a thorough double-materiality assessment. It is built on three pillars: benefits beyond illumination, energy efficiency and resource efficiency. These are supported by new initiatives, such as Signify Circle, which will support professional customers with their circular economy ambitions.
If we just look at the first pillar, it’s about the positive impact that lighting brings, in terms of productivity, in terms of safety, in terms of food availability, health and well-being, and now we have added solar in there. This is what we mean by “benefits beyond illumination”.
Q: If we take one of your targets to save 60 TWh of electricity for your customers, that seems quite hard to work out. Do you find data availability to be an issue?
A: Data is a challenge in sustainability, but we have been measuring our avoided emissions for years, so we know the data requirements behind it. We’ve done all our homework and with that we have set this target.
The 60 TWh figure is about the annual electricity usage of Switzerland so it is a substantial amount. But it also reflects the role that lighting plays in general. If you look at a typical city, street lighting alone accounts for about 40% of electricity use. So the potential is enormous.
The International Energy Agency reports that about 8% of global electricity use comes from lighting, and this translates into 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions. That’s really significant and why the opportunity here is so big.
Q: How has the new programme been informed by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)?
A: Our strategic compass is the Sustainable Development Goals. We committed to six SDGs in the previous programme. The new one has been expanded to cover eight and we conducted a mapping exercise for each of the commitments. I’m hoping that, by the end of this programme, we will see a new version of the SDGs to replace the current goals when they expire in 2030. We remain committed to making our contribution to the SDGs.
Q: Are you seeing higher demand for circular products? What is it that attracts businesses to that option?
A: Yes, we do see an increased demand. For example, we see greater interest in “remanufacturing”, which is a circular business model where we take down the lighting, send it back to our manufacturing site, and upgrade it to the latest technology, but keep the majority of the hardware intact.
I think customers are becoming more and more aware of the fact that regulation is pushing resource efficiency on businesses. And in some countries we see incentives to use circular products, and penalties around sending certain material to landfill. More businesses are becoming aware of this and we strongly believe there is a market for circular products.
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Q: Do you have customers that are facing real resource pressures, in terms of scarcity, increased costs or supply chain constraints that are making them think more about circular issues?
A: The whole market is currently impacted by geopolitical tensions and the disruptions that come as a result. Light as a Service, for example, could be a way for businesses to de-risk because there is no capital expenditure involved. Customers see real value in only having to pay to keep it running.
If we look longer term, then resource and material efficiency is something the whole world should be thinking more about. How can we decouple economic growth from the increased use of natural resources? We believe the circular economy is the answer.
This interview has been shortened and edited for clarity.
Adam Wentworth is a freelance writer based in Brighton, UK.
The post Signify: “We believe resilience is becoming more important to businesses right now” appeared first on Climate Home News.
Signify: “We believe resilience is becoming more important to businesses right now”
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