Nitrogen fertilisers, manure and other agricultural sources drove almost three-quarters of human-caused nitrous oxide emissions in recent years.
That is according to the Global Carbon Project’s second “global nitrogen budget” – an assessment of the origins and climate impacts of the world’s nitrous oxide emissions.
The research, published in Earth System Science Data, finds that nitrous oxide emissions from human activities rose by 40% over the past four decades, partly driven by growing global demand for meat and dairy.
Nitrous oxide emissions over the past decade exceeded even the highest projected levels in emissions pathways, the research finds.
Continuing to emit the greenhouse gas at current rates would “really affect” the world’s ability to achieve the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below” 2C, the lead author of the study tells Carbon Brief.
One expert, who was not involved in the research, says the findings show “all too clearly” that nitrous oxide emissions “are still going rapidly in the wrong direction”.
Potent greenhouse gas
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lasting greenhouse gas that is around 270 times more potent than CO2. It is the third-largest contributor to climate change, after CO2 and methane.
Various natural sources generate nitrous oxide, including tiny organisms in the world’s oceans and soils. These natural emitters accounted for 65% of all nitrous oxide emissions over 2010-19.
Human activities caused the remaining 35% of emissions, particularly nitrogen fertiliser use and manure management in agriculture. The burning of fossil fuels and biomass also produce nitrous oxide, but to a lesser extent.
The new study assesses both natural and human-caused sources of nitrous oxide to see how they have changed over time and how they are contributing to climate change.
It divides the sources and sinks into 21 categories, such as direct emissions from nitrogen use in agriculture and the exchange of CO2 between the land and atmosphere .
The researchers use a range of satellite data, models, algorithms and inventories to assess emissions over time.
The study finds that human-caused nitrous oxide emissions “significantly increased” from 1980 to 2020, growing by 40% during this time period. This rise was spurred on, in part, by growing demand for meat and dairy.
This is a jump of 10% in these human-caused emissions from the last nitrous oxide assessment, which covered data over 1980-2016.
However, the new study includes more categories than the previous global assessment, including emissions from microbe activity in the shallow waters over continental shelves. The researchers in the study say this explains some of the higher estimates in the new report.
Concentrations of the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere have also risen faster in the past three years than any other time since 1980.
Prof Hanqin Tian is the lead author of the study and an environmental sciences professor at Boston College. He tells Carbon Brief that nitrous oxide emissions continuing at current rates would “really affect the Paris climate agreement” goals.
Natural nitrous oxide emissions, on the other hand, were “relatively stable” over the period covered by the research. Tian explains:
“In terms of the total number, natural emissions are very high. But over long time periods, they stay stable. So natural emissions do not really contribute to climate change from pre-industrial times to now.”
Human-caused emissions have increased significantly. The below infographic outlines the changes in different nitrous oxide emissions sources from 2010 to 2019.
Assessments of different nitrous oxide sources and sinks from 2010-19. Different coloured arrows represent nitrous oxide fluxes in teragrams of nitrogen per year (TgN/yr): direct emissions from nitrogen used in agriculture (red), emissions from other direct human sources (orange), indirect emissions from human-caused nitrogen use (maroon), perturbations due to changes in climate, CO2 or land cover (brown), and emissions from natural sources (green). Source: Tian et al. (2024).
Prof Dave Reay, the chair in carbon management and education at the University of Edinburgh, who was not involved in the study, says that the research is “really significant” for both scientists and policymakers. He tells Carbon Brief:
“Nitrous oxide’s importance can sometimes be obscured by the larger climate forcing effects of CO2 and methane, yet every missed opportunity to cut nitrous oxide emissions drags the world still further away from achieving the Paris climate goals.”
The researchers highlight that human-caused nitrous oxide emissions need to be cut by at least one-fifth by 2050 to help limit long-term warming to 2C, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Reay says this study shows “all too clearly” that these emissions are “still going rapidly in the wrong direction”.
Agricultural emissions
Agriculture was the “major driver” of increased human-caused nitrous oxide emissions over the past four decades, the study says. In total, the researchers find that the sector was responsible for 74% of these emissions over 2010-19.
While agricultural emissions increased over time, other human-caused nitrous oxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry decreased slightly between 1980 and 2020.
Cutting nitrogen use in agriculture is a “quite complex issue related to food production, food security” and a range of other issues, Tian says.
Requirements to cut nitrous oxide emissions, particularly from livestock, have been a major political issue in the Netherlands and other countries. Nitrous oxide emissions are “expected to continue rising” over the next few decades due to the growing demand for food, the study says.
A tractor spraying nitrogen fertiliser on winter wheat. Credit: Tim Scrivener / Alamy Stock Photo
Reay says that reducing nitrogen use in agriculture “can yield benefits not just for climate change mitigation, but for food production, air and water quality and biodiversity, too”. He adds:
“The array of strategies to address these losses – primarily through improving so-called nitrogen use efficiency across our food systems – are already showing positive results in some areas of Europe and south-east Asia.”
An excess of nitrogen used on the land can wash into lakes, rivers and oceans. This run-off causes damage to plants, animals and humans and spurs on toxic algae. Nitrous oxide also contributes to depletion of the ozone layer.
Top-emitting countries
The study also examines emissions in 18 different regions, finding that they grew in some countries and decreased in others over the past four decades.
China, India, the US, Brazil and Russia were the five biggest nitrous oxide emitters in 2020, the study findings show.
Human-caused emissions increased by 157% in India, 135% in China and 131% in Brazil over 1980-2020.
China alone made up 40% of the overall increase in global human-caused nitrous oxide emissions between 1980 and 2020.
Although the country remains the biggest emitter, China’s nitrous oxide emissions have decreased in recent years as a result of efforts to use nitrogen fertilisers more efficiently, Tian says.
Rice terraces in Yunnan province in China. Credit: Fabio Nodari / Alamy Stock Photo
Nitrous oxide emissions have reduced in several parts of the world since 1980: Europe, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Korea.
Europe – the biggest nitrous oxide emitter in 1980 – has seen the most significant drop in the four decades since. Emissions fell by one-third (31%) during this time, largely due to fossil fuel and industry emissions cuts in the 1990s.
Agriculture-related nitrous oxide emissions also decreased in Europe during this time, but the drop has levelled off since the 2000s, the study notes.
Exceeding future projections
The scientists also explore how current nitrous oxide emissions compare with those from scenarios of future projections of climate change.
The charts below show how global nitrous oxide concentrations in the atmosphere (black line) compare with projections under the “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs, left) and the “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs, right).
The charts highlight that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas over the past decade have exceeded even the projections under the very-high-emissions trajectory, RCP8.5 (red dashed line).
Two different pathways focusing on concentrations of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere, measured in parts per billion (ppb). Chart A (left) shows the measured levels of nitrous oxide (black line) compared to the four RCPs used in the IPCC fifth assessment report. Chart B shows the seven SSPs used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) models used in the IPCC sixth assessment report. Source: Tian et al. (2024).
The researchers outline some “major uncertainties” with their findings and the scientific understanding of where nitrous oxide comes from.
These include the understanding of emissions from soils in tropical ecosystems in the Amazon Basin, the Congo Basin and south-east Asia, alongside areas using high levels of fertilisers, such as the US “corn belt”.
The study also mentions uncertainties around estimates for the impact of deforestation on nitrous oxide emissions.
The researchers propose setting up a global network to better monitor and model nitrous oxide emissions. Reay says that this is a “very timely suggestion”, adding:
“With all nations needing to submit their updated national plans for climate action in the run up to COP30 in Brazil next year, better measurement of nitrous oxide emissions holds the promise of better reporting and, crucially, better efforts to cut them.”
China has released its “15th five-year plan for the development of renewable energy”, outlining key targets and policies for the sector in 2026-2030.
A key focus of the plan is boosting renewable generation and consumption as a share of China’s overall energy mix.
It calls for continued capacity additions of wind and solar – albeit at lower levels than previous years – as well as hydropower, biomass and other clean-energy sources.
Specifically, China will aim to install 3,500 gigawatts (GW) of renewables capacity by 2030, 2,800GW will be wind and solar.
The country had previously pledged to install 1,200GW of wind and solar by 2030, a goal that China met six years early.
Another major theme is the provision of wind and solar supply that is “dependable” and “grid-friendly”.
Setting a target for “dependable output” from wind and solar could help to entrench their role as a provider of “energy security”, according to analysts.
The government also aims to boost renewables consumption by developing non-power uses of renewable energy, in sectors such as steel and chemicals.
Below, Carbon Brief examines the key targets and policies outlined in the five-year plan and what they mean for China’s energy transition.
Five-year plans are key to China’s political system. An overarching plan, covering all socioeconomic issues of importance to policy leaders, is published at the beginning of each five-year cycle.
The plan for the 15th five-year period (2026-2030) was published in March 2026.
It includes what the government considers to be the most important targets and policy signals for climate and energy. For example, binding targets for carbon intensity, the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption and total energy production capacity.
Following this overarching document, five-year plans focused on specific sectors or themes are then published over the course of the five-year plan period.
This year, the government has already published several five-year plans related to energy and climate change. One covers the development of the “new-type” energy sector more broadly. Another wraps climate goals together with other environmental targets under the “Beautiful China” programme.
By contrast, the renewables five-year plan focuses specifically on the development of hydropower, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and wave energy.
It covers topics including capacity and generation targets, as well as efforts to increase integration and reliability of wind and solar. It also has policies to encourage “non-power use” of renewable energy and ways to strengthen innovation of clean-energy technologies.
What overarching renewables targets are in the plan?
China will aim to install 3,500 gigawatts (GW) of renewables capacity by 2030, according to the five-year plan.
Of this, 2,800GW will be wind and solar – a pledge reiterated from China’s action plan for peaking carbon emissions, which was released earlier this month.
The goal more than doubles a previous 2030 target for wind and solar to reach 1,200GW, which China met six years early.
As of June 2026, the country has installed just under 2,000GW of wind and solar capacity, as well as 454GW of hydropower. Biomass, geothermal and wave energy hold very small shares of the overall energy mix.
As such, China would need to build 160GW of wind and solar each year – and just under 220GW of renewable capacity in total – to meet the targets.
The country installed 277GW of new solar alone in 2024 – and 315GW in 2025.
China’s total installed capacity of renewable energy from 2016-2025, and its target for 2030. Source: National Energy Administration, Carbon Brief.
A key part of meeting the targets will be the development of large-scale clean-energy bases in China’s northern regions. These will generate power to be exported elsewhere via ultra-high voltage lines. The plan also encourages greater “local consumption” and installations of distributed energy (see below).
The plan says that further research will be directed at increasing the renewable share of electricity generated by these large-scale energy bases to 100%.
A recent report by the thinktank Global Energy Monitor (GEM) finds that output from these bases “continues to be paired with coal-fired generation in the name of balancing and system flexibility”. It says that currently, coal generates 42% of the power transmitted to the rest of the country from these bases.
China will also add more hydropower, says the plan, with capacity rising from 448GW in 2025 to 570GW in 2030. Some 160GW of this will be pumped-storage hydropower.
Meanwhile, the plan sets a target for renewable power generation to reach 6,000 terawatt-hours (TWh), 4,000TWh of which would come from wind and solar.
This would be a 50% increase in five years as renewables generated just under 4,000TWh of electricity in 2025, according to the National Energy Administration.
By 2030, the plan says that total consumption of renewable energy will stand at 1.8bn tonnes of coal equivalent (Gtce).
This would be up from 1.2Gtce in 2025, which represented about one-fifth of China’s total energy consumption of 6.2Gtce that year.
The renewable targets in the plan are lower than those suggested in a recent study by high-profile Chinese scholars.
The study, from the department of energy and power engineering and the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University in Beijing, assessed the “likelihood of China attaining its carbon peak” under different pathways.
It found that, in order to meet its climate commitments, China would need to either install more than 4,000GW of “non-fossil energy capacity” before 2030, or to “maintain a total energy consumption” below 6.5Gtce.
The table below outlines some of the key renewables targets for 2030, as specified in the plan.
Key targets for 2030, adapted from 15th five-year plan for renewable energy
Type
2025
2030
Percentage change
Renewable energy use
1.2Gtce
1.8Gtce
53%
Total renewables capacity
2,340GW
3,500GW
50%
Wind and solar capacity
1,840GW
More than 2,800GW
52%
Of which: Solar thermal
1.8GW
15GW
733%
Hydro capacity
450GW
570GW
27%
Of which: Pumped storage hydropower
66GW
160GW
142%
Wave energy
–
0.4GW
–
Renewable generation
4,000TWh
6,000TWh
50%
Of which: Wind and solar
2,300TWh
4,000TWh
74%
Non-electricity use
60Mtce
150Mtce
150%
Renewable hydrogen
0.25Mt
2Mt
700%
Why does the plan focus on ‘firm capacity’ for renewables?
As well as increasing the overall size of China’s renewable power supply, the country must also maintain an “uninterrupted and reliable power supply”, officials from the NDRC and NEA told state news agency Xinhua in coverage of the new plan.
To support this goal, the plan says that the development of renewables will “enter a new stage”. This will mean that “improving quality and serving as a reliable alternative” to fossil fuels will be as important as “expanding scale”.
The plan, therefore, proposes targets for the “firm capacity” from wind and solar (置信出力). This is the amount plants or grids can be relied on to produce during critical supply periods, in conjunction with on-site storage.
The target for wind is a firm capacity of at least 11% of total installed capacity by 2030, while the equivalent goal for solar is 6%.
Wind and solar will also be expected to supply more than 20% of total demand in peak periods during the summer and winter evenings, says the plan. It expects “reliable peak-shaving capacity from renewable sources” to reach more than 300GW.
The new targets are a “positive move”, says Yao Zhe, global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, as it “only applies during peak load and critical supply periods, when coal power is typically used to stabilise the power supply”.
She adds that this could, theoretically, “prevent the construction of new coal-fired power projects that are proposed and approved for the reason of meeting peak demand”.
The new metrics mark a change in focus, says Lyu Wenbin, director general of the Energy Research Institute – a state thinktank under the NDRC – in an “explanatory reading” posted on BJX News. He says it “marks a shift in renewable energy development from the mere pursuit of installed capacity to…also taking into account system support capabilities”.
The plan pledges to “accelerate the construction of grid-friendly wind and solar power stations”. It says this will enhance “reliable peak-load generation” and strengthen renewables’ ability to ensure “safe and stable operation” of the grid.
It says this will particularly be a focus in the energy-hungry east, central and south areas of China.
It sets out a slightly different focus for areas that already have a high share of renewables in their power mix, such as north-west China. Here, the aim will be to develop wind and solar parks that are “capable of providing voltage, frequency and inertia support”.
“This is a real challenge”, says James Norman, research analyst at GEM. He says these challenges are particularly acute in some circumstances:
“[For example], when the share of wind and solar is very high, relatively few synchronous generators (like coal) are online or large volumes of electricity are being transferred through high voltage DC lines.”
The plan mentions many technological solutions to address the problem, he tells Carbon Brief. However, he adds, there are no quantitative details for the issue. For example, he notes there is no target for “how many gigawatts of wind and solar must gain grid-forming capability”. This is in contrast to the goals for overall renewables capacity or generation.
Norman was a co-author on the recent GEM report, which identified further barriers to renewable uptake. It said these include transmission bottlenecks, alongside systemic features such as dispatching and power-contract mechanisms.
As a result, said the report, renewable power – especially solar – is increasingly being “curtailed”, particularly in north-western and northern provinces.
Yao also notes that the plan does not “spell out specific measures to address systemic constraints” around the electricity grid and the role of coal in the power sector.
“I interpret this as evidence that the vested interests are still strong in the policy debate,” she adds.
What does the plan say about ‘distributed’ energy?
Alongside gigawatt-scale clean-energy megabases, China also aims to expand construction of “distributed” energy. This means smaller-scale installations, such as rooftop solar.
More than 300GW of “distributed new energy” is to be added over 2026-30, some 60GW per year.
The plan aims for distributed new energy to be adopted in sectors such as industry, transport, buildings and agriculture.
Applications include the use of distributed solar and wind in industrial parks, coal mines and oilfields, as well as encouraging residents to install solar panels on buildings and developing rural clean-energy grids.
In some regions, distributed solar and wind is “likely to meet a large proportion of local demand”, says Prof Pan Jiahua at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou). He tells Carbon Brief that micro- and mini-grids using such resources will be particularly important in central and coastal China.
The 60GW annual target for new distributed energy is not “overly ambitious”, says Isadora Wang, head of China at the thinktank Transition Asia. She tells Carbon Brief that distributed solar additions, alone, exceeded 100GW in both 2024 and 2025.
Cosimo Ries, analyst at the consultancy Trivium China, agrees that the target is reachable. The biggest question mark, he tells Carbon Brief, is whether it will continue to make sense for industry and utilities to build distributed power at the volumes seen during the 14th five-year plan period.
He adds that market conditions for distributed solar have deteriorated sharply over the past two years. He says a range of factors have hit investor confidence:
“[Distributed solar faces] growing exposure to market trading, worsening returns in spot markets, growing risks of curtailment and new policies limiting or forbidding the selling of power back to the grid.”
What does the plan say about non-electricity use of renewables?
The plan also sets goals for renewable energy’s role in “non-electricity use”.
This means using renewable energy for purposes other than generating electricity, through converting it to other forms, such as heat or mechanical energy.
The government is aiming for non-power use to nearly triple from 60m tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2025 to 150Mtce in 2030.
Ries tells Carbon Brief that he thinks this target is “one of the main highlights” of the plan. However, he notes that limited available data means it is hard to assess the level of its ambition. He adds that, given the relative conservatism of China’s other recent clean-energy targets, this one may also be met relatively easily.
Key applications for non-power use of renewables include “green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol”, says the plan. It also points to using wind and solar for heat, as well as to biomass and geothermal for heating and cooling.
Green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol are the “centrepiece” of the non-power push, according to state-owned newspaper Economic Information Daily.
For hydrogen alone, China plans to scale up renewable hydrogen production to 2m tonnes in 2030, up from 250,000 tonnes in 2025.
Today, non-power use of renewables accounts for only around 1% of China’s total energy consumption, NEA and NDRC officials said in a Q&A. They added that there is “considerable room for growth” in sectors such as industry, transport and buildings.
Potential new applications include the use of wind and solar for heat. This could see the use of centralised wind and solar heating stations in the chemicals, textiles, pharmaceuticals, papermaking and food sectors.
New projects in the steel and cement sectors should use locally-generated wind and solar to power electric-arc furnaces and kilns, adds the plan.
Wang tells Carbon Brief that she believes the naming of individual sectors is a “clear indication” that they will be included in China’s renewable consumption quotas. These already cover aluminium and other heavy industry sectors.
She adds that power and heat demand from the named sectors may help absorb distributed renewable energy. It will also serve as a testing ground for matching demand with supply through increased grid flexibility and power price reforms.
To Ries, the growing focus on non-power use signals that China’s decarbonisation efforts are “now entering deeper waters”. That means regulators are turning from easier-to-abate sectors, such as aluminium, to more challenging industries, such as steel.
The plan could create a “second growth curve” for the new-energy industry, says He Zhao, in a commentary for China Power News Net. He, the vice-president of the China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute (EPPEI). says this might begin with non-power use, before shifting to fuel, feedstock and heat substitution.
What does the plan say about China’s cleantech dominance?
The next five years is a prime opportunity for China to “consolidate our leading position across the entire industrial chain” for clean-energy technologies, says the plan.
It adds that the government will “strengthen technological innovation” and accelerate the roll-out of new applications of artificial intelligence in China’s renewable-energy system.
A particular focus for new R&D will be “cutting-edge, original and disruptive technologies”. It also points to technologies that “enhance the reliability of renewable energy” as a substitute for fossil fuels.
The plan names technologies for further development. For wind power, these include “reliable and low-cost” blades, ultra-tall towers and new types of floating platforms. It also mentions the development of “high-altitude wind power”. For solar, it points to the development of perovskite and other “high efficiency” solar cells, as well as space-solar technologies.
The plan also pledges to develop a power market that supports the “full entry” of renewable-energy companies. It underscores that companies should plan for an increasingly market-based and competitive environment.
Meanwhile, the government will also deepen cooperation with other countries on clean energy and “advance” global climate cooperation, it says.
A priority will be “strengthening” international coordination on investment and development in “green energy projects”. Another is “actively promoting the free circulation of China’s high-quality green technologies and products in global markets”.
Chinese exports of clean-energy technologies have been surging, especially since the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Chinese investment in clean-energy projects in Belt and Road Initiative member states totalled $20bn in the first half of 2026. This is also driven by the crisis.
The US, EU and others have launched tariffs and pricing mechanisms to curb imports of Chinese cleantech. This has contributed to pushback from China, against what it and others refer to as “unilateral trade measures”.
China is transitioning from a “major energy nation” (能源大国) to an “energy powerhouse” (能源强国), writes the Energy Research Institute’s Lyu in his explanatory reading. He says this will enable China to increasingly shift to building “systemic” advantages in developing clean-energy technologies.
He continues that, from 2026-2030, China will “move to the very forefront of the global stage” on clean energy, “venturing into uncharted territory”. This will create both “major new challenges and significant opportunities” for the country, he adds.
Interview: Dr Sun Yixian on his new database tracking Chinese climate ‘leadership’
SYDNEY/KINGSTON, Wednesday 29 July — The future of deep sea mining will be a focus for world leaders this week as the International Seabed Authority (ISA) Assembly takes place in Kingston, Jamaica.
Country delegates and members from Pacific Civil Society have come together to discuss a deep sea mining code, while the call for a moratorium grows. It follows the ISA’s contentious decision last week to extend The Metals Company subsidiary Nauru Ocean Resources Inc’s (NORI) exploration contract, despite its support for the pursuit of unlawful deep sea mining via US unilateralism.
The Assembly’s agenda was agreed to yesterday, with a science item put forward by Vanuatu to be heard on Thursday local time. Overnight, Mozambique and Mauritius joined the call for a global moratorium.
Rae Bainteiti, Pacific Political Coordinator at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said from the ISA in Kingston:
“As we move into the General Assembly this week, the fundamental issue remains that there is not enough science to guarantee the safety and protection of the ocean in a world where deep sea mining is allowed. As trustees of the ocean, the common heritage of humankind, our Pacific governments must stand firm against corporate interests that are pushing to move ahead with deep-sea mining outside the ISA framework. If deep sea mining goes ahead, Pacific communities will suffer the economic, cultural and social consequences. We continue to call on all States to support a moratorium as the principled and responsible pathway to protect the ocean.”
Currently, 45 countries, including seven Pacific nations, support a moratorium or precautionary pause on deep sea mining. Last week, Australia’s Labor National Conference committed to supporting a moratorium, but the government has yet to make an official comment.
More of Germany’s electricity came from wind and solar power than fossil fuels for the first time ever in 2025.
Together, wind and solar power generated 225 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity – accounting for 44% of the total in 2025 – with just 217TWh (43%) coming from fossil fuels.
Solar and onshore wind have grown rapidly under Germany’s “Energiewende” strategy over the past two decades, as the nation transitions away from both coal and nuclear power.
Renewables have recently faced mounting opposition from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the current coalition government has been trying to develop new gas-power plants.
Nevertheless, Carbon Brief analysis of Energy Institute data – shown in the chart below – illustrates how wind and solar have continued growing, emerging as the nation’s largest power source.
The success of renewables in Germany mirrors the EU as a whole, which also saw wind and solar overtake fossil-fuel power generation in 2025 for the first time.
“Other renewables” includes hydropower, bioenergy, geothermal and other renewable sources not otherwise stated. Source: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, 2026.
Germany has various targets in place that require a rapid expansion of wind and solar power, including cutting economy-wide emissions to net-zero by 2045.
The nation is also aiming to increase renewables’ share of electricity consumption to 80% by 2030 to achieve a “largely climate neutral” power system by 2035. It aims to decarbonise its electricity entirely once coal power has been phased out, which has a deadline of “no later than” 2038.
(The renewables targets also include electricity generated from hydropower and bioenergy. The latter produces a relatively large share of Germany’s power – roughly a tenth in 2025.)
Germany has to rely on renewables more than neighbours, such as France and the UK, to achieve its climate goals. This is due to its phaseout of nuclear power, which is a key part of the “Energiewende” strategy.
Nuclear power has long faced widespread public opposition in Germany. This year, the centre-right chancellor Friedrich Merz described the nuclear phaseout as a “strategic mistake”, but the government has ruled out a return to conventional nuclear power.
The country has an official coal phaseout date of 2038, but experts say the country is on track to eliminate coal from its power supply years earlier. This is despite some pressure to temporarily slow the transition away from coal during the recent energy crisis.
(Very few outside the AfD are calling to scrap the coal phaseout altogether, but the government will publish a review of the timelines in August.)
While coal generation has fallen quickly, even as nuclear was being phased out, some argue that coal could have been cut more quickly if nuclear had remained.
Gas-power expansion has also been framed by the government in recent years as an essential component of Germany’s transition away from coal and nuclear power, to support a renewables-heavy grid.
The current government under Merz has tried to boost gas and recently adopted a law to provide state support for new gas-fired power plants. The plan is for these plants to be converted to run on “green hydrogen” by 2045, in order to meet the climate-neutrality goal.
Germany aims to install 115 gigawatts (GW) of onshore wind by 2030 and approved a record 20.8GW of new capacity in 2025.
Meanwhile, solar generation has reached unprecedented levels during the hot summer of 2026.
However, the government’s planned grid reforms have been criticised by the renewables industry for risking slowing down the energy transition. Under the proposals, renewables developers would only be granted automatic grid connections in areas with limited grid capacity if they waive compensation for future curtailed generation.
Interview: COP31 president says electrification is ‘surest way to protect citizens’
