A young CCLer’s COP28 story
By Vinay Karthik
Last December, I had the incredible opportunity to attend COP28, the 28th Conference of Parties, held by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Dubai. As part of YOUNGO, the official youth constituency of the UNFCCC, I was honored to be selected as a Media Logistics Manager to serve as one of 15 youth around the world on the YOUNGO Communications Team.
As a member of the Global Coordination Team of YOUNGO, I had previously helped with organizing the United Nations Local Conference of Youth USA (LCOY USA 2023) held in October at Washington DC, which led to the drafting of a U.S. national youth statement and contained policies such as a carbon fee and dividend. This was fed into the Global Youth Statement during the Global Conference of Youth and was finally presented at COP28.
Being a victim of climate disasters such as Hurricane Sandy at a young age, I am driven to advocate for climate policies and encourage youth engagement in climate advocacy through communications. I currently serve as a Communications Leader for CCL’s National Youth Action Team (NYAT) and help make the voices of youth climate advocates heard through various platforms such as our national blog, Instagram account, and our upcoming youth podcast segment in Citizens’ Climate Radio. Leading communications for the NYAT has provided me with not only the technical experience of creating content, but has also instilled in me valuable communication, organizational, and leadership skills that helped me in handling the intense and fast-paced environment of COP.
Two days before COP28, I boarded the plane to Dubai at Newark Liberty Airport along with other COP28 delegates, ranging from college students and researchers to climate lobbyists and politicians. After a long and exhausting 13-hour flight, we finally arrived at the “City of Gold” and I took a Careem (Dubai’s ride sharing service) to my hotel, which was bustling with COP28 guests as well. The next day, I took the Dubai Metro to Expo City 2020, the venue of the conference. The COP28 arrangements were made at a massive scale, almost resembling a small city complete with electric trams for transportation between various zones.
During COP28, I had access to the highly restrictive “blue zone,” the formal conference space where world leaders came together for negotiations. My primary roles included planning, scheduling, and managing all of the youth media events at COP28 and covering the various youth engagements happening at the different blue zone pavilions, which are designated spaces for countries, organizations, and stakeholders.
I later expanded my capacity to include additional roles such as script writing and reporting on YOUNGO’s new broadcast channel YOUNGO TV which provided live broadcasts — like this one with former Vice President Al Gore — simplifying the events and negotiations at COP28 to youth and the public.
I also assisted in producing YOUNGO Frontline, a newsletter that provided updates on COP28. As part of this initiative, my team was able to meet and interview climate leaders from around the world and notable dignitaries such as former Vice President Al Gore and the Norwegian Minister of International Development Anne Beathe Tvinnereim.
Being the only minor and high school student on the team, I worked with other experienced members who had not only attended several COP conferences but were also leading professionals in their disciplines. During those two weeks at the conference, I grew very close to my teammates, and I was really inspired by their climate advocacy stories and their commitment to climate awareness and action, despite most of them holding full-time jobs outside of this work. While helping to cover an event or record a broadcast, I learned about their awe-inspiring resilience amidst adversity and saw how steadfast and self-driven they were in their commitment to climate advocacy, giving me great hope for the future.
Vinay (second from left) with other event participants
Unexpectedly, I also had the chance to be interviewed and featured by Antenna 1, a Portuguese public channel. Outside of the Communications Team, I was able to connect with other climate advocates, some familiar and some new, as well as inspiring personalities such as Beksultan Nurgali, who led the execution of the “World Painting” and won a Guinness World Record for the highest international collaboration in its creation.
What I enjoyed most about COP was being able to meet individuals all around the world passionate about tackling the existential crisis of climate change through unique avenues and understanding the different projects or initiatives they are taking part in. Although I was unhappy with the increasing number of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP, we did have some unprecedented successes such as the operationalization of a global loss and damage fund and an international agreement over a just transition from fossil fuels in order to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
The international unity and immense collaboration between climate advocates at COP has further fueled my hope for a more green and sustainable future.
The post A young CCLer’s COP28 story appeared first on Citizens' Climate Lobby.
Greenhouse Gases
After Congress cuts clean energy measures, climate advocates are undeterred in D.C.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
After Congress cuts clean energy measures, climate advocates are undeterred in D.C.
July 16, 2025 – Next week, Citizens’ Climate Lobby will hold its 16th annual Summer Conference and Lobby Day in Washington, D.C.
CCL will welcome more than 800 registrants from around the country, who will attend conference activities beginning Sunday evening, July 20, through Monday, July 21.
Keynote speaker Amanda Ripley — author of High Conflict and co-founder of the nonprofit Good Conflict — will offer a timely and essential message as we navigate today’s fractured political landscape. See the full conference program here.
Then on Tuesday, July 22, conference attendees will head to Capitol Hill for hundreds of climate-focused meetings with members of Congress. Every meeting will focus on asking lawmakers — Republicans and Democrats like — to support America’s clean energy transition.
Despite the Republicans’ budget reconciliation bill passing into law with major cuts to clean energy measures, the process did reveal growing support among Republican lawmakers for those very measures.
“We had a lot of different letters coming out from Republicans on clean energy provisions, saying how important they are to their district,” Jennifer Tyler, CCL Vice President of Government Affairs, reminded CCL volunteers during the organization’s July meeting.
“Even though their vote and the bill wasn’t what we were looking for, it’s clear that we are generating support in Congress — it’s there. They’re willing to step out publicly and make those proclamations. We’re in this for the long haul, and we’re going in the right direction.”
Our grassroots volunteers will build on this support, emphasizing to Congress that clean energy can strengthen our domestic energy independence, enhance grid reliability, and reduce emissions—all while lowering costs, creating jobs, and spurring private-sector investment.
Public opinion is on our side. Sixty-three percent of Americans polled in December 2024 by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication stated that developing clean energy sources should be a high or very high priority for the President and Congress.
In certain offices, lobby meetings will also include building support for healthy forest policy, such as the bipartisan Fix Our Forests Act, and discussing carbon border adjustment mechanism policy.
Follow along with this year’s event on CCL’s social media profiles on Instagram, Bluesky, X, or Facebook.
CONTACT: Flannery Winchester, CCL Vice President of Communications, 615-337-3642, flannery@citizensclimate.org
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Citizens’ Climate Lobby is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, grassroots advocacy organization focused on national policies to address climate change. Learn more at citizensclimatelobby.org.
The post After Congress cuts clean energy measures, climate advocates are undeterred in D.C. appeared first on Citizens' Climate Lobby.
After Congress cuts clean energy measures, climate advocates are undeterred in D.C.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Ricky Bradley steps in as interim Executive Director for Citizens’ Climate
July 16, 2025 – Today, Citizens’ Climate Vice President of Field Operations Ricky Bradley assumes the role of interim Executive Director, after several weeks of a collaborative transition period with outgoing Executive Director Rachel Kerestes and Citizens’ Climate’s governing boards.
“Rachel’s leadership helped lay a strong foundation for the future, and I’m deeply grateful for her contributions,” Bradley said. “I’m committed to building on the groundwork she’s laid and on Citizens’ Climate’s proud history of grassroots advocacy.”
Ricky Bradley
Bradley brings nearly a decade of experience working as part of Citizens’ Climate’s staff, most recently as Vice President of Field Operations. In addition to his staff roles, he has also served as a volunteer Group Leader and volunteer Regional Coordinator, all of which ground him in Citizens’ Climate’s grassroots model.
“I’m excited about where Ricky’s leadership can take us from here,” said Citizens’ Climate Lobby board chair Bill Blancato said in a recent meeting with volunteers. “He’s the perfect person to take over from Rachel and carry our mission forward.”
Prior to joining Citizens’ Climate, Bradley led strategic planning and implementation efforts at HSBC, helping a large team adopt new approaches and deliver on big organizational goals.
“The political landscape is shifting, and Citizens’ Climate is stepping up — not by pressing harder in the same places, but by adapting our approach, concentrating our influence where it counts, protecting the progress we’ve made, and pursuing politically viable, durable climate solutions,” Bradley said.
Bradley joins the rest of Citizens’ Climate staff and more than 800 grassroots volunteers in Washington, D.C., next week for the organization’s annual Summer Conference and Lobby Day.
CONTACT: Flannery Winchester, CCL Vice President of Communications, 615-337-3642, flannery@citizensclimate.org
###
Citizens’ Climate Lobby is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, grassroots advocacy organization focused on national policies to address climate change. Learn more at citizensclimatelobby.org.
The post Ricky Bradley steps in as interim Executive Director for Citizens’ Climate appeared first on Citizens' Climate Lobby.
Ricky Bradley steps in as interim Executive Director for Citizens’ Climate
火山喷发对科学家及其气候模型构成了根本性挑战。
众所周知，剧烈的火山喷发会导致地表气温突然下降，多次喷发则会在几十年乃至几个世纪的时间尺度上影响气候变率。
当火山喷发将二氧化硫注入平流层时，会形成气溶胶，从而阻挡阳光到达地球表面。
与人类对气候变化的影响不同，后者发生缓慢且可以在各种社会经济情景下被纳入气候模型进行考量。火山喷发具有突发性，这给气候预测带来了挑战。
目前科学家尚无法预测火山喷发的发生时间、地点以及二氧化硫的排放量。
那么，在进行未来气候预测时，如何考虑火山喷发对气候的影响呢？
在我们最近发表于《通讯-地球与环境》（Communications Earth & Environment）的研究中，我们表明火山喷发对全球气温预测的不确定性产生了重大影响。
我们的研究结果发现，如果将偶发的火山喷发纳入气候预测，突破《巴黎协定》所设定的1.5C升温上限的时间会略有延迟，但与此同时，未来几十年也将出现更多快速升温和降温的时期。
气候预测中的火山强迫
气候科学家将火山喷发对气候的影响——主要是通过释放出二氧化硫气体进入大气——称为“火山强迫”（volcanic forcing）。
当前的气候模型在进行未来预测时采用一个恒定的火山强迫值，该值是根据1850年至今的历史平均强迫值计算得出的。
国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP）也是如此，这项全球模型工作为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布的重要评估报告提供基础数据。
然而，这种方法存在显著局限。
首先，历史平均强迫值无法表示火山爆发的偶发性。
大规模火山喷发呈零星分布——有时好多事件集中发生在某几个十年内，有时两个事件之间则可能相隔上百年。
此外，与数千年尺度的记录相比，从1850年至今的参考时期中，发生过的大规模喷发事件 ——指排放超过3太克（Tg）二氧化硫的喷发事件——相对较少。
最后，早期国际耦合模式比较计划气候模型中所使用的火山强迫重建数据并未包含排放量少于3太克二氧化硫的中小规模喷发。
这是因为这些喷发在1980年卫星时代开始之前大多未被探测到。然而，这些体量较小但发生频率更高的喷发事件，在长期火山强迫中贡献了30%至50%。
采取新方法
传统上，气候科学家认为气候预测中主要存在三种不确定性来源：内部变率、模型不确定性和情景不确定性。
其中，“内部”变率是指气候系统内部自然产生的波动，如厄尔尼诺现象；模型不确定性是指不同气候模型之间结果的差异；情景不确定性则涉及未来几十年全球可能的发展路径。
我们的研究结果表明，火山喷发应被明确视为气候预测中第四个重要的不确定性来源。
为了探究在考虑火山强迫不确定性的情况下，气候预测会发生怎样的变化，我们的研究采用了一种概率方法，这一方法建立在Bethke等人于2017年提出的研究基础之上。
为此，我们构建了“随机强迫情景”，其本质是1000种延续至本世纪末的火山活动可能时间线预测。
这些情景基于冰芯中记录的过去1.15万年火山活动历史，以及卫星观测和地质证据。每个情景都呈现了不同的喷发强度、地点、时间和频率的组合。
（在数学中，“随机”系统是指结果包含随机性或不确定性的系统，因此不可预测；这与“确定性”系统相对，后者的结果可以通过初始条件和一套规则或方程完全预测。）
随后，我们利用2015至2100年期间的随机火上强迫和历史平均火山强迫模拟气候预测，研究共享社会经济路径（SSPs）中三种不同排放情景下的升温变化：低排放情景（SSP1-1.9）、与现行气候政策相符的中等排放情景（SSP2-4.5）、非常高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）。
在这一步中，我们使用了一种称为FaIR的简化气候模型，也称“模拟器”。
通过模拟1000种不同的火山未来情况，我们发现在21世纪未来时期火山喷发所引起的气候不确定性，可能超过同期气候系统本身的内部变率。
我们还发现，到2030年代，火山喷发可能占全球气温预测总不确定性的三分之一以上。
下图中能看到这些结果。图中展示了不同来源对总不确定性的影响。火山为橙色、内部变率为深蓝色、气候模型响应为黄色，未来人类排放情景为绿色。
对1.5C临界值的意义
我们的模拟结果表明，在气候预测中纳入可能的火山活动时间线后，短期内突破《巴黎协定》设定的1.5C升温上限的概率略有下降。
根据不同的排放情景，相较于使用恒定火山强迫的预测，模拟发现超过1.5C升温上限的概率下降了4%至10%。
尽管这一结果听起来似乎令人鼓舞，但未来的火山活动并不能在长期缓和由人类引起的全球变暖。
1815年坦博拉火山的喷发事件就是一个强有力的例证。这次喷发使全球气温平均下降了约0.8C，带来了“无夏之年”，导致欧洲、北美和中国大范围的作物歉收和饥荒。
火山喷发带来的降温效应是短暂的，通常只持续几年，其并不会改变由人类排放所导致的长期变暖趋势。
我们的研究发现，即使考虑多种可能的未来火山活动，在除了最低排放路径以外的所有情景中，全球变暖仍将在几十年内超过1.5C。
即便21世纪火山活动频繁，其对全球变暖的抵消作用也仅占很小一部分——这意味着减排对于实现长期气候目标仍然至关重要。
下方图表展示了在三种排放情景下，使用随机火山强迫（实线）与恒定火山强迫（虚线）时超过1.5C的概率（上图），以及两种强迫方式之间的概率差异（下图）。
十年尺度的气温变率
我们的研究提供的另一个重要发现是：一旦将火山强迫的变率纳入考虑，将更有可能出现极端温暖和寒冷的十年期。
在中等排放情景下，我们发现出现负向十年期趋势——即全球表面温度在某个十年内平均下降——的概率增加了10%到18%。
与此同时，出现极端温暖十年期的概率也随之增加，这反映出火山强迫的变率会同时提高变暖和变冷极端事件发生的可能性。
这一结果凸显了火山喷发如何在十年时间尺度上对全球气温趋势带来显著的波动。
迈向更完善的气候预测
了解火山对气候的影响，对于全面评估农业、基础设施和能源系统在未来所面临的风险至关重要。
使用全面的地球系统模型运行数千种火山情景并不切实际，因为这需要极高的计算资源。但与此同时，当前的方法也存在上文提到的显著局限。
不过，在未来的气候模型工作中，仍有折中方案可行。
即将开展的下一阶段气候建模实验——即CMIP7情景模式比较计划——可以采用更具代表性的“平均”火山强迫基线，这一基线纳入了历史记录中常被遗漏的小型喷发事件的影响。这一偏差现已在用于下一代气候模型模拟的历史火山强迫数据集中得到纠正。
此外，建模团队还应额外运行包含高频和低频未来火山活动的情景，以全面捕捉火山不确定性对气候预测的影响范围。
虽然人类导致的温室气体排放仍是气候变化的主导因素，但若能妥善考虑火山活动的不确定性，将有助于我们获得更全面的未来气候图景及其对社会的潜在影响。
The post 嘉宾来稿：探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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