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decarbonization cost is getting affordable

According to Goldman Sachs Research, the push to bring the global economy to net zero emissions is reaching a turning point. Certain clean technologies like solar and batteries have experienced shifts in their costs in 2023; some become more costly while others become more financially accessible, enhancing the affordability of decarbonization. 

Riding the Cost Waves: 2023’s Clean Tech Shifts

Goldman Sachs’ analysis of the Carbonomics cost curve for 2023 reveals the influence of reduced energy prices coming from fossil fuels. This can consequently increase the cost of renewable energy sources. 

Goldman Sachs Research cost curve

Moreover, rising interest rates have also made construction expenses for projects most costly such as offshore wind energy. On the other hand, declining battery costs and the benefits of scaling up production of electric vehicles have made these technologies more economically viable. 

Michele Della Vigna, leading Natural Resources Research in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia at Goldman Sachs Research, highlights a pivotal shift in the affordability of clean technology. He stated that:

“From here on, the deflationary forces [solar and batteries] are likely to win, and this brings back an affordability to the decarbonization path that not only accelerates it but makes it more attractive to the consumer.”

As per their analysis, the result shows a consistent flattening of the cost curve since 2019. The 2023’s curve suggests that the cost to remove 75% of planet-warming emissions remains the same from 2022. 

cost curve

The 2023 results also show an increase in costs in the lower half of the cost curve. This is largely due to increasing interest rates and cost inflation. While the impact of these factors overall is limited, they drive 25% increase in the renewable power sector. 

2023 carbonomics cost curve

Additionally, a significant improvement in battery costs for the transport sector made the high cost decarbonization more affordable. The sector gets 30% cheaper with improved batteries, lower raw material costs, and simpler cell-to-vehicle integration. 

carbonomics cost curve

Balancing Policy Support and Climate Goals

Looking ahead to 2024, a significant aspect to monitor will be the level of policy support for decarbonization. Though policy support reached $500 billion through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), political uncertainties and delays in certain areas may cause project delays. 

Still, Della Vigna expects increased investment from the financial and corporate sectors. This surge in investment will focus on areas of decarbonization that are becoming more accessible and cost-effective. Solar installations and electric vehicles, in particular, stand out in their analysis. 

However, the investment and spending currently in place may not be enough to achieve climate goals, Della Vigna added. If the goal is to keep global warming well within 1.5 degrees Celsius, then the world remains off course. 

He noted that over the past year, global emissions have risen by 1%, reaching an all-time high. Coal demand has surged by 3%, and there has been a substantial $1 trillion worth of direct incentives for hydrocarbons. These trends don’t align with the pathway to achieve the 1.5-degree scenario. 

Moreover, the world is now at the midway point between the 2015 Paris agreement and its 2030 targets. Summing up all the government commitments to decarbonization, the outcome leads to flat, not declining, emissions. 

But for the 1.5-degree scenario, emissions would need to decrease by more than 50% by 2030. This stark contrast highlights the significant deviation from the required path to meet the climate objectives.

The Game-Changing Announcements at COP28

When it comes to the recently concluded COP28 climate conference in Dubai, there are three announcements that have the most impact to the market, per Della Vigna:

First is the growing green capex in the Gulf Coast region, estimated by Goldman Sachs Research to be over $600 billion over the next decade.

Next is the commitment to ramped up renewable power generation, which can improve affordability of clean technologies. The IEA’s updated Net Zero Roadmap shows that tripping global installed renewable energy capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030 will achieve the most emission reductions. 

Last is the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter formed by 50 companies, targeting zero methane emissions and ending routine flaring by 2030.

Goldman Sachs’ 2023 Carbonomics analysis reveals a pivotal moment in global net zero journey. Fluctuating costs in clean tech pose challenges—lower fossil fuel prices raise renewable energy expenses while rising interest rates affect construction. Yet, falling battery costs and EV expansion boost viability while solar and batteries driving affordability accelerates decarbonization.

The post Goldman Sachs Research Says Global Net Zero Journey Reaches a Critical Turning Point appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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