The UK’s climate saw a record-breaking 2025, with the year being both the warmest and sunniest seen since observations began.
The year 2025 has joined 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2014 in the UK’s top-five warmest years.
In this review, we take a look back at the UK’s climate in 2025 and place the record-breaking year in the context of human-caused climate change. We find:
- It was the warmest and sunniest year on record. January and September were the only months that were cooler than average.
- A Met Office attribution study estimates that 2025’s average temperature would have been exceptionally unlikely in pre-industrial times – but could now occur, on average, every three years.
- Spring was the warmest on record, breaking a record set in 2024.
- Spring was not only the sunniest on record, but the fourth-sunniest season ever recorded, after the summers of 1976, 1996 and 1911.
- It was the warmest summer on record. The summer temperature record was made around 70 times more likely due to human-induced climate change.
- The persistent high-pressure systems in spring and summer, which contributed to the warm and sunny conditions, also resulted in an extended dry spell – including the driest spring since 1974.
- Wetter conditions at the end of the year alleviated some of the rain shortfall. The year concluded with 90% of average annual rainfall.
- Storm Éowyn in late January was the most powerful wind storm in over a decade and the most severe storm in Northern Ireland since 1998.
- Storm Floris in early August was not unprecedented for a storm, but was one of the most severe wind storms to affect Scotland during the summer.
- Storm Amy in early October hit north-western parts of the UK, with heavy rain falling widely, resulting in the wettest day of the year for the UK overall.
(See our previous annual analysis for 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019 and 2018.)
The year in summary
The Met Office relies on the long-running HadUK-Grid dataset to place recent UK weather and climate into its historical context. The gridded, geographically complete dataset combines observational data for monthly temperature since 1884, rainfall since 1836 and sunshine since 1910.
Unless stated otherwise, the rankings of events and statements (such as “warmest on record”) in this article relate to the HadUK-Grid series.
The “climate anomaly” maps below show the difference between the average temperature (left), rainfall total (middle) and sunshine duration (right) between 2025 and the 1991-2020 period. In other words, they show how much warmer, cooler, wetter, drier, sunnier or cloudier the year was than average for each county of the UK.
The maps show that the whole country was warmer than average, with central and north-east England, parts of Northern Ireland and the tip of north-west Scotland, Orkney and Shetland seeing the greatest change.
The UK overall had 90% of average rainfall. The driest regions relative to average were around Essex, Moray and Aberdeenshire, which received less than 75% of normal annual rainfall.
In contrast, some western counties were slightly wetter than average – including Cornwall (110%) and Cumbria (107%).
Sunshine was above average across the UK, with eastern England and north Scotland exceeding 120% of the average.
Attribution
The UK’s absolute temperature averaged at 10.09C in 2025. This follows 2022 (at 10.03C) as the second time that the annual average temperature has exceeded 10C.
In our analysis of the UK’s climate in 2022 for Carbon Brief, we reported on a Met Office attribution study that found that human-caused climate change had increased the likelihood of UK annual absolute temperature averaging above 10C by a factor 160.
That study concluded that exceeding 10C – while unprecedented in the historical observational record – would become increasingly common and would likely occur every three-to-four years.
Three years on from that analysis and the 10C threshold has been breached for a second time – and an updated attribution analysis has been produced exploring the likelihood of a return of temperatures above the 10.09C recorded in 2025.
The study, which uses the same methodology as the 2022 paper, finds that UK annual mean temperatures above 10.09C are estimated to occur approximately every three years in the current climate. In contrast, they would have occurred around every 780 years in pre-industrial times.
Human-caused climate change has, therefore, increased the probability of average temperatures in excess of 10.09C by a factor of 260.
These results show that 2025’s record-breaking annual temperature – while unprecedented in the historical observational record – should be considered fairly normal in the current climate.
Climate projections indicate that, by the later part of the 21st century, a year like 2025 could be a relatively cool year.
The figure below compares observations of UK annual average temperatures (black line) – relative to the long-term average – to climate model simulations that include (red/purple) or exclude (green) human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases and land-use change.
The green and red curves start to diverge from around the 1980s, suggesting that human influence is indeed the dominant factor in the warming trend. The shaded range of the simulations show that in our current and future climate, much warmer years than 2025 are plausible.
Colder years are also still possible, but it is much less likely that we would experience a cold year like 2010 – and exceptionally unlikely for a year to be in the top-10 coldest years for the UK. The most recent year to feature in the top-10 coldest years was 1963.
Warmer, wetter, sunnier
Four of the UK’s last five years all appear in the top-five warmest years since 1884.
The Central England Temperature (CET) series is the longest continuous instrumental climate record in the world, dating back to 1659. Covering a region roughly enclosed by Lancashire, London and Bristol, it does not represent the whole of the UK. However, when averaged across a year and analysed across centuries, it does provide a multi-century perspective that is representative of climate variations and changes that impacted the UK.
As with the HadUK-Grid temperature record, the CET series also identifies 2025 as the warmest year on record. The longer-running temperature series identifies the same five years – in the same order – as the warmest on record. This is shown in the table below.
| Year | UK (from HadUK-Grid) | Central England Temperature |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.09C | 11.23C |
| 2022 | 10.03C | 11.18C |
| 2023 | 9.97C | 11.13C |
| 2014 | 9.88C | 11.04C |
| 2024 | 9.79C | 10.96C |
The graph below of the CET series shows that temperatures recorded in recent years are well outside the range of variability recorded over more than 300 years.
However, the UK is not only warming, it is also getting wetter and sunnier. The year 2025 was relatively dry, recording 90% of average rainfall. This made it the driest year recorded since 2010 and put it in contrast to relatively wet years in 2023 and 2024.
The longer-term trend can be seen in the figure below, which shows that 2025 was relatively dry compared to recent decades, but not exceptional in the longer-term historical context.
The last time the UK had a year in the top-10 driest was in 1955, whereas all five of the top-10 wettest years have occurred this millennium. The wettest year on record still stands as 1872.
The drivers of annual rainfall trends are more complex than for temperature.
A significant factor in rainfall trends is a warming atmosphere’s ability to hold more moisture. However, this does not completely account for recent increases in rainfall.
Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns – particularly features such as the jet stream and associated storm tracks across the North Atlantic – also play a crucial role. These are influenced by annual and decadal fluctuations in the Earth’s climate, as well as human-caused climate change.
UK annual sunshine totals have also been rising since the 1980s, with 2025 setting a record by a considerable margin. This is in sharp contrast to 2024, which was the dullest year since 1998. This is shown in the graph below, where the dotted line shows the underlying long-term trend, with year-to-year variations removed.
The cause of the sunshine trend is also uncertain, with both natural climate variability and human activity (through reduced regional air pollution caused by a reduction in aerosol emissions) potential contributors. Climate projections do not provide any strong evidence for how sunshine trends might develop.
The year in storms
The Met Office has been naming storms since 2015. Each storm-naming period runs from September to August.
(For more on storm naming in the UK, read Carbon Brief’s explainer.)
The criteria for storm naming has changed over time. It accounts for meteorological conditions, as well as the potential severity of impacts. As a result, comparisons between years can indicate relative levels of storm activity, but should not be done on a like-for-like basis.
Between the 2015-16 and 2024-25 storm seasons, there have been, on average, 7.7 named storms each year, with a high of 12 recorded in the 2023-24 season and a low of four over 2022-23. This is shown in the line chart below.
By this measure, 2025 was not exceptional with six named storms – two from the 2024-25 season and four from 2025-26. These are listed in the table below.
| Storm name | Date(s) of impact in UK | Maximum wind gust | Notable features |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 names | |||
| Éowyn | 24 January | 87Kt (100mph), Drumalbin, Lanarkshire | Most powerful storm for over a decade |
| Floris | 4-5 August | 71Kt (82mph) at Wick Airport, Caithness | Equalled Scotland’s August gust speed record |
| 2025-26 names | |||
| Amy | 3-4 October | 83Kt (96mph) at Tiree, Argyll | Significant disruption from flooding. |
| Benjamin (named by Meteo France) | 22-23 October | 52Kt (60mph) Needles, Isle Of Wight | Strongest winds affected northern France |
| Claudia (named by AEMET, Spain) | 14 November | 59Kt (68mph) Warcop Range, Cumbria | Extensive heavy rainfall across England and Wales |
| Bram | 8-10 December | 73Kt (84mph), Capel Curig, Conwy | Flooding from heavy rainfall on saturated ground. |
Credit: Met Office storm centre
Storm Éowyn in January had the most severe winds of any storm in 2025. The Met Office issued a red warning for wind across Northern Ireland and the south-west and central belt of Scotland. An amber warning was issued for the northern half of the UK. At the peak of the storm, power outages were reported at around 1m homes.
Storms from October to December were notable for bringing some persistent and heavy rain during a period of wetter weather, in contrast to the extended dry spell earlier in the year.
Weather through the year
The charts below show the progression of temperature and rainfall through the course of 2025.
The plot below charts average daily temperature over the course of 2025, with orange shading showing warmer-than-average conditions. Overall, the year had 244 days – 66% of the total – where temperatures were above average.
On the other hand, cold spells – indicated by blue shading – were generally short-lived and not very severe, with the exception of events in early January and November.
Fifty-one days in 2025 were in the top 5% warmest for the time of year in the historical record, but only one day – 20 November – was in the 5% of coldest.
The significant number of warmer days and absence of cool ones helps build a picture of how 2025 was the warmest year overall.
The highest daily maximum temperature recorded in the year was 35.8C at Faversham, Kent on 1 July during an early summer heatwave. The lowest minimum temperature was -18.9C, recorded at Altnaharra, Sutherland on 11 January.
A maximum annual temperature of 35.8C is not an exceptional high for recent years – especially when compared with 2022’s record of 40.3C. However it would have been a rare event in the 20th century, when just three years – 1932 (36.1C), 1976 (35.9C) and 1990 (37.1C) – saw a higher temperature.
In the 21st century, six years have seen temperatures above 35.8C – 2003, 2006, 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022.
The plot below illustrates 2025’s below-average rainfall accumulation.
The brown shading – which represents the deficit in rainfall at that point of the year compared to the 1991-2020 average – highlights how rainfall totals were particularly low during the dry spring and summer period. The lower blue line shows how rainfall accumulation in 2025 came close to – but did not quite reach – a record low in late May and late August.
Wetter conditions in the autumn saw rainfall totals recover a little to reach 90% at the end of the year – which is below average, but not exceptional. As noted previously, there were regional variations.
Winter
In climate terms, the UK winter spans the calendar months of December, January and February.
The winter of 2024-25 was slightly warmer than average, but not exceptional, with an average temperature of 4.62C. This is 0.53C above the 1991-2020 average. The winter months had 89% of average rainfall and 94% of average sunshine.
New Year’s Day saw significant flooding that affected parts of Lancashire and the south side of Manchester. The River Mersey reached record levels in the wake of two days of heavy, persistent rain.
The coldest spell of 2025 occurred in early January, with significant snowfall in some regions.
Storm Éowyn and heavy rain at the end of January were the winter’s most impactful events, bringing high winds and flooding that resulted in considerable disruption.
Spring
Spring – which encompasses the months of March, April and May – was the warmest and sunniest on record, as well as the sixth driest.
The record high temperature came only one year after the previous record set in 2024, continuing a trend of increasing spring time temperature for the UK.
(A Met Office attribution analysis which explored the record-breaking temperatures of May 2024 showed that the temperatures were caused by a combination of a marine heatwave which persisted through May and into June and human-induced climate change.)
The timeseries below shows average spring temperature in the UK over 1884-2025. It shows a significant warming trend since the 1970s, with temperatures in 2024 and 2025 sitting well outside the range of variability observed in the late 19th and 20th centuries.
The UK’s changing climate is having an impact on the natural cycles of many species and habitats. Citizen science initiatives have highlighted how “signs of spring” – for instance, the first flowering or first nest-building – occur increasingly early in the year.
Summer
Warm, sunny and dry conditions persisted into the summer season, drying out soils.
There were four heatwave events, which impacted almost all regions of the UK. Two of these events took place in June.
A marine heatwave also took place, with sea surface temperatures of 1.5-3C above the 1983-2012 average in the Celtic Sea, English Channel and southern North Sea.
An attribution study by the World Weather Attribution service estimated that human-caused climate change had made exceeding June heatwave thresholds around 10 times more likely. The research also found that one of the June heatwaves had been made 2-4C more intense as a result of human influence.
The five warmest summers recorded in the UK to date are 2025 (16.10C), 2018 (15.76C), 2006 (15.75C), 2003 (15.74C) and 2022 (15.71C).
Met Office analysis estimates that in a pre-industrial climate, a summer like 2025 would be expected to occur every 340 years. However, in the current climate, we could expect to see these sorts of summers roughly once every five years.
The study also shows that the UK could plausibly experience much hotter summers in the current and future climate. Events that would have been seen as extremes in the past are becoming more common.
A Met Office attribution study published in 2019 estimated that the then record-breaking summer of 2018 had a statistical return period of approximately eight-to-nine years. The summer of 2025 has broken that record in seven years, consistent with these previous findings.
The science is clear that UK summers are becoming warmer and extreme heat events are becoming more common. This could mean more significant impacts on people, infrastructure and the environment – both now and in the future.
The map below plots the number of heatwaves that took place in June, July and August across the UK. It shows how a significant number of regions across saw more three (green shading) or four (pink shading) over the summer months.
Autumn
Autumn and the month of December were marked with unsettled weather, with mild and wet conditions over the four-month period.
The season was warmer and wetter than average. Northern Ireland had its third-wettest autumn on record, Northern England its fifth wettest and Wales its 10th wettest.
Storm Amy set a record for highest gust speed for a storm in October, with 80Kt (92mph) recorded at Magilligan, County Londonderry.
Other major storms were notable for heavy rainfall that caused flooding. Storm Claudia brought heavy rainfall to central England and Wales in mid-November, which fell on already saturated ground.
The second half of November saw snow cause across the North York Moors during a cold northerly spell which saw some hard frosts. This was followed by generally mild and unsettled conditions until late December, when strong easterly winds brought more low temperatures and hard frosts.
The UK chalked up a number of significant climate records in 2025, particularly for high temperatures. This aligns with the well-established warming trend that is the result of human-caused climate change.
Climate attribution studies continue to provide further evidence that human factors are increasing the likelihood and severity of UK climate extremes.
Many of 2025’s records will not stand for long. There is a high chance they will be broken again in the near future as the climate continues to warm.
The post Met Office: A review of the UK’s climate in 2025 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Cropped 22 April 2026: Global food ‘catastrophe’ | BECCS emissions | UK solar farm controversy
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Food ‘catastrophe’
FAO WARNING: On Monday, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that a prolonged closure of the strait of Hormuz could lead to a “global food catastrophe”, reported Al Jazeera. With 20-45% of the world’s key agrifood inputs dependent on the sea passage, the outlet explained, poorer countries would be the “most exposed”, with delays in accessing fertilisers “quickly translating into lower output”. A Financial Times essay detailed how the Gulf region has come to “sit at the centre of modern agriculture” over the past two decades”.
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‘PERFECT STORM’: The FAO also warned countries to “not limit shipments” of energy and fertilisers, warning that such restrictions have led to food price spikes in the past, wrote Bloomberg. The UN body asked countries to “closely ponder” biofuel mandates, given the choice between high oil prices and curtailing global food supplies. In a statement, FAO chief economist Dr Maximo Torero warned of a “perfect storm”, if the world is also affected by a strong El Niño.
COUNTRIES RESPOND: Sri Lanka, already “burdened with old fertiliser debts”, has promised to provide fertiliser subsidies to farmers, reported Sri Lanka’s Sunday Times. In India, “fear of a fertiliser shortage is particularly heightened”, wrote Scroll.in. In Australia – where 60% of urea comes from the Persian Gulf – the war could herald a fertiliser “manufacturing comeback”, reported ABC News. Reuters looked at how China is “clamping down on fertiliser exports to protect its domestic market”.
Study: Wood vs gas burning
BASHING BECCS: A new study found that “bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is unlikely to generate negative emissions within 150 years”. The paper added that BECCS is likely to “produce higher emissions for decades than using natural gas without carbon capture” and to “increase electricity costs by ~3.5-fold”. The Guardian covered the research, stating that its findings “cast doubt” on government plans to offer subsidies for carbon capture attached to wood-burning power, such as the UK’s Drax power station.
INTERPRET WITH CAUTION: Prof Joana Portugal Pereira, an assistant professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, told Carbon Brief that the study is “clearly framed and the modelling approach is transparent”. However, she said the results are “very sensitive to the assumptions made” and advised “caution” in drawing conclusions from the analysis. For example, she noted that the study “focuses on BECCS supplied from existing forests”, which is likely to “emphasise higher emissions outcomes”.
MISLEADING HEADLINE: Dr Isabela Butnar, a lecturer in environmental policy at University College London, praised parts of the methodology and agreed that “forest-based BECCS for electricity is a no-go”. However, she argued that the title of the paper – “Decades of increased emissions from forest-fuelled BECCS” – might be “a bit misleading”. The title should specify that the analysis only applies to BECCS for electricity production, she said.
News and views
- TOO HOT TO FARM: A major new joint report by the FAO and the World Meteorological Organization estimated that extreme heat “currently threatens” the livelihoods of more than 1 billion people, with agricultural workers on the “frontlines…absorbing the greatest impacts”. Farmers in much of south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and central and South America could find it “simply too hot to work” for up to 250 days a year, the report cautioned.
- PALM READING: Demand for palm oil has “surged as the war in Iran drives countries to build up stockpiles” and “boost” biofuel programmes in response to higher crude oil prices, reported Nikkei Asia. While Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil exports have risen to their “highest level in months”, longer-term supply could be “threatened” by rising fertiliser prices and “high temperatures caused by climate change”, added the outlet.
- RED LIST: Emperor penguins and the Antarctic fur seal “have joined the list of wildlife endangered by global warming”, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List, reported the New York Times. Conversely, “iconic” blue-and-yellow macaws have returned to Rio de Janeiro after a 200-year absence, following an ambitious “refaunation” programme, wrote the Guardian.
- CATTLE CLASS: A new Unearthed investigation found that a major US biofuels producer supplied the UK with “sustainable aviation fuel” derived from “beef fat linked to illegal Amazon deforestation”. Darling Ingredients – the producer’s parent company – denied sourcing tallow from slaughterhouses sourcing cattle from illegal farms in the Amazon. It told the outlet it was “in the process” of requiring suppliers to prove their products were “deforestation-free”.
- FUND OPEN: On 10 April, Ecuador issued its “first call” for grants to protect 1.8m hectares of the Ecuadorian Amazon using the $460m Amazon Biocorridor Fund, reported EFE Verde. The trust fund is linked to what is considered the “largest debt-for-land nature swap”, added the outlet. [For more on debt-for-nature swaps, see Carbon Brief’s 2024 explainer.]
- SUPER EL NIÑO: Scientists expect a strong El Niño event to develop by early autumn, driving up global temperatures, according to Carbon Brief’s latest state of the climate update. The analysis said that if a super El Niño develops this year, it is likely that 2027 will top the charts as the hottest year on record. It added that “the latest climate models give a central estimate of 2.2C warming by September – a scenario which would put the world firmly in ‘super’ El Niño territory”.
Spotlight
Oxford solar farm under fire
This week, Carbon Brief unpacks what the UK’s Botley West solar farm development would mean for farmland and biodiversity in the area.
Planning permission for one of Europe’s largest solar farms has been delayed, after the UK government asked for more time to consider the proposal from the developer.
Oxfordshire’s Botley West solar farm has been under consultation since 2022.
If approved, the site – located 80km north-west of London – will deliver 840m watts (MW) to the UK power grid.
However, the development faces vehement opposition – most notably from the Stop Botley West campaign group, which has said the “vast” solar farm will have “unprecedented” visual impact, drive the loss of “arable farmland” and will “disregard Oxford’s green belt”.
Politicians frequently use solar farms to score points with their supporters, with some MPs describing the developments as hazards for rural communities and food supply.
Farmland loss
Most of the land earmarked for the solar farm belongs to the Blenheim estate – a 12,000-acre expanse surrounding the UNESCO world heritage site of Blenheim Palace.
Dr Jonathan Scurlock – the former chief climate adviser at the National Farmers’ Union, which represents farmers in England and Wales – told Carbon Brief that the estate rents out much of its land to tenant farmers. However, he added, it is “not terribly good quality farmland”.
The UK government has a ranking system for agricultural land that is being considered for large-scale development projects, where five indicates “very poor quality” and one indicates “excellent quality”. Developers are generally encouraged to build on lower-quality land, leaving the high-quality land for farming.
According to the Botley West website, 62% of the land surveyed for the proposed solar farm is agricultural grade 3b – defined as “moderate-quality agricultural land”. The remainder is mostly 3a, defined as “good-quality agricultural land”.
Many opponents of Botley West argue that the farm will take away vital farmland. However, Scurlock said:
“Solar is perceived as very challenging to land use and yet the evidence nationally really doesn’t support that…Solar farms do not really represent lots of agricultural land capacity”.
(A 2025 Carbon Brief factcheck found that golf courses currently take up six times as much land in the UK as solar farms.)
The developers plan for the solar panels to remain on-site for about 40 years, after which the fields will be returned to use for agriculture.
Biodiversity gain
The proposed solar farm has also promised to improve local biodiversity.
New development projects in the UK must deliver a “biodiversity net gain” (BNG) under a 2024 regulation.
Developers must arrange for the “biodiversity value” of the land to be assessed, considering factors including the size, quality, location and type of each habitat. They must then ensure that the final project increases this value by at least 10%.
If the Botley West project is approved, the developers will aim for 70% BNG.
Prof Alona Armstrong, an energy researcher from Lancaster University, told Carbon Brief that around two-thirds of solar farms in the UK are built on “ex-arable lands”.
She explained that biodiversity outcomes on solar farms depend on where the farms are located and how they are designed and managed. Much agricultural land is “intensively managed”, with the use of chemicals and farming machinery. In contrast, there is less chemical and machinery use on solar farms, potentially benefiting biodiversity.
Armstrong added that solar farms are often lined with hedges, which are “really good for biodiversity”, acting as refuges for a wide range of plant and animal species.
The latest BNG statement for Botley West filed with the government featured a “habitat and hedgerows creation and enhancement plan”.
The plan included creating 26.5km of new species-rich hedgerow, enhancing 25km of existing hedgerows and developing a range of grassland types within the solar arrays to be managed for conservation.
Watch, read, listen
EARTH ANGELS: From protecting Nigeria’s rare bats to pushing higher climate targets in South Korea, Mongabay profiled the six women who won this year’s Goldman Prize.
CHERRY (BLOSSOM) PICKING: The Guardian reported on the hunt to find a researcher to continue Japan’s 1,200-year record of cherry-blossom blooming dates.
‘SOYA REPUBLICS’: A Phenomenal World essay argued that global grain traders in South America’s soya supply chains “sowed the seeds of anti-democratic politics”.
ZACH IS BACK: Actor-comedian Zach Galifianakis debuted a new Netflix series, called “This is a gardening show”, meant to be an “oddball celebration of the food we eat”.
New science
- Preventing the loss of intact biomes, ecosystems and species is the “most critical strategy” to achieve the “nature positive” future outlined in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework | Frontiers in Science
- Climate change will lead to “increased pest damage” in North American forests, as “temperature-boosted pest performance” and “climate-induced stress”, such as drought, make trees more susceptible to pests | Nature Ecology and Evolution
- There are 160m “small wetlands” in “non-forested” parts of the world, which together contribute to 24% of total wetland methane emissions | Nature Climate Change
In the diary
- 22-24 April: Eighth meeting of the board for the loss and damage fund | Livingstone, Zambia
- 24 April: Launch of the 2026 global report on food crises | London
- 24-29 April: First conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels | Santa Marta, Colombia
- 5-7 May: Workshop on invasive alien species for Spanish-speaking countries in Latin America and the Caribbean | Panama City
Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyerand Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org
The post Cropped 22 April 2026: Global food ‘catastrophe’ | BECCS emissions | UK solar farm controversy appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cropped 22 April 2026: Global food ‘catastrophe’ | BECCS emissions | UK solar farm controversy
A recent US court ruling restricting President Trump’s ability to impose sweeping tariffs has improved the chances of an international deal to cut emissions from shipping, observers of UN maritime talks have said.
Government officials meeting at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London this week and next are resuming negotiations on a proposed set of measures known as the Net-Zero Framework (NZF), aimed at tackling the sector’s roughly 3% share of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Last October, Trump and his officials threatened any government voting to adopt provisionally agreed green shipping measures, known as the Net-Zero Framework (NZF), with tariffs that would make it harder for their businesses to export to the USA.
The intervention helped derail talks, with governments narrowly voting to postpone for a year the adoption of the NZF.
The framework, provisionally agreed in April 2025 after years of negotiations, would penalise the owners of particularly polluting ships and use the revenues to fund cleaner fuels, support affected workers and help developing countries manage the transition.
The delay plunged the future of the NZF into doubt. Vanuatu’s climate minister said the delay was “unacceptable” given the urgency of tackling climate change. A final decision on the NZF is not expected until November.
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IMO head: Shipping decarbonisation “has started” despite green deal delay
Arsenio Dominguez said the shipping industry’s net zero emissions goal is not in dispute although countries have stalled on adopting a framework to reach it -
Pacific nations want higher emissions charges if shipping talks reopen
US President Donald Trump and his allies want to weaken the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework, but Pacific island countries say they have compromised enough -
US-led alliance wins a year’s delay in adoption of green shipping deal
The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework will be up for approval again in October 2026, after the US and Saudi Arabia persuaded countries not to vote on it as planned
Tariff threat neutered
Since the last round of negotiations, the political landscape has shifted. In February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump had no legal authority to impose sweeping tariffs without approval from Congress.
Rockford Weitz, professor of maritime studies at Tufts University, said that his officials would have “a more challenging time” using tariffs as threats at this month’s shipping talks than they did in October.
University College London professor Tristan Smith, a close observer of IMO talks, agreed that the tariff threat is “not quite as potent as it was last year”. He noted that the US also no longer benefits from the element of surprise. In October, Washington began lobbying governments only shortly before the talks, leaving little time for countries supporting the NZF to coordinate a response.
This time, Smith said supporters of the framework – which include most European countries, Pacific Islands and some African and Latin American states – are “working very closely together” to resist the US’s pressure.
He added that the US’s attempt to promote liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a transition shipping fuel, rather than renewable-electricity-based solutions like ammonia or methanol, by weakening the NZF has been undermined by the spike in the cost of gas triggered by the Iran war.
Attempts to re-negotiate
But divisions remain in the talks scheduled to run until Friday next week. Ahead of this round of negotiations, some governments have proposed re-negotiating the core tenets of the NZF, while others insist it should be adopted in November largely as provisionally agreed in April 2025.
This debate played out last week on a webinar hosted by the African Futures Policies Hub. Liberian diplomat Grace Nuhn said the emissions-reduction requirements included in the NZF are “over-zealous” and “over-ambitious” and do not reflect the limited availability of clean fuels, while penalising “transitional fuels” such as LNG and biofuels.
In a formal submission, Liberia – alongside US ally Argentina and Panama – has proposed weakening emission targets and ditching any funding mechanism for the framework involving “direct revenue collection and disbursement”.
Liberia and Panama host the world’s two biggest ship registries, meaning their governments earn revenue from allowing shipowners from around the world to register vessels in their countries.
The NZF would penalise owners of ships that emit more than certain agreed amounts and use that revenue to clean up the maritime sector, help workers through the green transition and compensate for any negative impacts of the transition on developing economies.
Shipping’s climate deal sets up battle over pollution calculations for gas and biofuels
Japan has also proposed that, in order to reach a compromise with the NZF’s opponents, emissions reduction targets and requirements to pay into the IMO’s Net-Zero Fund are weakened.
Yuki Inoue, a diplomat from Japan’s transport ministry, told the webinar that this would reduce the perception that the NZF is a “carbon tax”. Japan wants to get all governments “back to the discussion table”, he said.
NZF a “fragile compromise”
But Tuvalu’s IMO negotiator Pierre-Jean Bordahandy said that the NZF itself is a “fragile compromise” reached after lengthy discussions and is the “only viable path forward” to meet the sector’s climate targets agreed in 2023.
Tuvalu and six other Pacific nations have vowed to try to make the NZF more ambitious if it is reopened for negotiation. With rising sea levels threatening their survival, “time is not on our side”, Bordahandy told the webinar.
Brazil has also pushed back against attempts to renegotiate. Diplomat Adriana de Medeiros Gabinio warned that it would be unrealistic to expect countries to rewrite a deal in a matter of months after more than two years of negotiations involving over 100 nations culminated in the April 2025 vote in favour of the NZF.
She added that proposed changes to the NZF would not address climate change and food insecurity and “seem aimed at addressing diplomatic pressure imposed by a small group of countries rather than the issue itself”.
Mexico has defended the framework’s funding mechanism. Raul Zepeda Gil, an advisor to the country’s IMO mission, said the net-zero fund is essential to ensure developing countries can access financing for cleaner ships and infrastructure. Without the fund, “then just a few countries will be available to participate in the transition”, he warned
Some countries that previously supported delaying the NZF now appear more aligned with its backers. Kenya was among 16 African nations that voted for postponement last October.
But this month Michael Mbaru, maritime lead for the Kenyan government’s climate envoy office, told journalists that Kenya supports the NZF and hinted that other African and developing countries would follow.
“From the Global South perspective, as you’ve seen from the submissions from Africa, we are moving forward in terms of the framework as is”, he said, adding “we feel like we have compromised enough and we feel like the framework provides the best package.”
“If we are to reopen these discussions, we need to reopen them to strengthen the revenue, not to weaken the revenue”, he said.
Tacit or explicit approval?
Brazil’s Adriana de Medeiros Gabinio warned that even if the NZF is officially adopted in November, its opponents are trying to change the rules by which it comes into force as a “safety net to block” it.
The US and its allies want to shift away from a system of tacit approval where, after the NZF is approved at the IMO talks, its rules are automatically applied unless a certain number of countries object.
They prefer explicit approval instead, meaning it would not come into force unless enough governments – representing a certain percentage of the world’s shipping fleet – actively indicate support for it.
Critics say this change would give a small number of countries with large shipping registries the power to block implementation. Liberia has the world’s biggest shipping registry, which is run by a US-based company, followed by Panama and the Marshall Islands.
The Marshall Islands has long been one of the most vocal supporters of the NZF but, with its officials and its shipping registry income vulnerable to US retaliation, did not sign on to the recent Pacific proposal vowing to strengthen the NZF if it is re-opened.
Commenting on the chances of the NZF being approved, Smith said “there are lots of things which I think generally are much better and stronger than they were last year.”
“I can’t tell you now that that means we’re not going to have a difficult conversation and I can’t put odds on what the outcome is but I think things have improved on the energy transition question,” he said.
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Prospects for global green shipping deal boosted by US tariff ruling, analysts say
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