根据全球能源监测组织（GEM）的最新年度报告，2023年中国煤电建设活动占全球新建煤电活动的95%。
GEM的全球煤电行业年度报告称，中国有70吉瓦（GW）的煤电装机容量破土动工，相较2019年增长了四倍。
相比之下，世界其他地区新开工煤电装机容量不足4吉瓦，是2014年以来的最低水平。
除中国外，只有32个国家有处于拟建阶段的新建煤电项目，只有七个国家有在建电厂。
虽然2023年全球煤电装机容量（包括总装机容量和中国以外地区的装机容量）有所增长，但GEM表示，这很可能只是“昙花一现”，随着未来几年美国和欧洲加速煤炭退役，这一增长将会被抵消。
该报告的其他主要发现包括：全球燃煤电厂——中国以外地区——建设连续第二年下降。然而，全球煤电厂的退役率也处于2011年以来的最低水平。
中国的“关键时刻”
GEM表示，2023年中国有47.4吉瓦的煤电装机容量投产。这一增量占全球在运煤电装机容量增长的三分之二，全球装机容量整体增长了2%，达到2130吉瓦。
2023年，中国有70.2吉瓦的新建项目开工，是世界其他国家，合计3.7吉瓦，的19倍。如下图所示，中国的发展轨迹（红线）与世界其他地区（橙色线）存在显著差异。
中国的新开工装机容量几乎是2019年的四倍，彼时中国的新建燃煤电厂开工量创下了九年来的新低。
这是中国每年开工建设的新燃煤电厂装机容量连续第四年增长。GEM指出，这与中国在2021年提出的“严控”新增煤电产能的承诺不符。
2022年初，中国国家能源局的《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》指出，到2025年将淘汰30吉瓦的煤电产能。
然而，GEM指出，如果算上发电装机容量至少达到30兆瓦（megawatts）的大型煤电机组，过去三年中关停的电厂不到9吉瓦，而且几乎没有其他电厂有退役计划。
GEM补充说，如果中国要实现30吉瓦的退役目标，“就必须立即采取行动”。
能源与清洁空气研究中心（CREA）中国分析师秦琦在一份声明中说：“最近中国煤电开发的激增与全球趋势形成了鲜明对比，使中国2025年的气候目标面临风险。在此关键时刻，中国必须对煤电项目实施更严格的控制，并加快向可再生能源转型，以重新履行其气候承诺。”
根据GEM的报告，中国、印度、孟加拉国、津巴布韦、印度尼西亚、哈萨克斯坦、老挝、土耳其、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦和越南共占全球拟建容量的95%。
该组织发现，剩下的5%分布在21个国家。报告补充称，其中11个国家仅有一个拟建项目，有望实现“无新煤电”这一退煤里程碑。
GEM追踪器显示，2023年，位于中国之外、全新规划的煤电项目装机容量达到20.9吉瓦。其中，印度新规划煤电装机容量达到11.4吉瓦，超过了2016年以来的任何一年。GEM解释说，这在一定程度上是由于该国几个停滞项目的重新启用。
哈萨克斯坦也有4.6吉瓦的新规划项目，印度尼西亚则有2.5吉瓦。另外还有4.1吉瓦之前被暂停或取消、但在去年被重新“规划”的项目。
另有几个国家——俄罗斯、菲律宾、博茨瓦纳和尼日利亚——也在2023年有项目重新规划和开工。
退役速度缓慢
GEM发现，2023年全球共有69.5吉瓦的煤电投产，同时有21.1吉瓦的煤电退役。这使得全球煤电在运装机容量的净增长达到自2016年以来的最高水平，猛增了48.4吉瓦。
此外，印度尼西亚（5.9吉瓦）、印度（5.5吉瓦）、越南（2.6吉瓦）、日本（2.5吉瓦）、孟加拉国（1.9吉瓦）、巴基斯坦（1.7吉瓦）、韩国（1吉瓦）、希腊（0.7吉瓦）和津巴布韦（0.3吉瓦）也有新增装机容量投产。
该组织发现，在2023年间，中国境外总共有22.1吉瓦装机容量投产，17.4吉瓦退役。这使得在中国以外运营的全球煤电机组净增加了4.7吉瓦。2023年，全球煤电装机容量达到2130吉瓦，比上年增长2%。
GEM表示，美国贡献了近一半的退役煤电机组装机容量，2023年有9.7吉瓦被关闭。不过，与2022年的14.7吉瓦和2015年的21.7吉瓦的峰值相比，退役量有所下降。
在其他地区，欧盟和英国的煤电机组退役量接近四分之一，其中英国有3.1吉瓦退役，意大利有0.6吉瓦退役，波兰有0.5吉瓦退役。目前，英国只有一家燃煤电厂在运营，这个位于索尔河畔拉特克利夫（Ratcliffe-on-Soar）的电厂计划于2024年9月关闭。
总体而言，全球退役的煤电装机容量处于2011年以来的最低水平，如下图所示。
GEM指出，中国以外地区新开工建设的煤电项目规模连续第二年下降，创下（该机构）自2015年收集数据以来的最低水平。
2023年，中国以外地区新开工建设的项目不到4吉瓦，远低于2015年至2022年16吉瓦的平均水平。仅有七个国家有新项目破土动工，其中印度、老挝、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦和俄罗斯各有一座电厂，印度尼西亚有三座电厂。
GEM表示，自2016年以来，拉丁美洲没有任何燃煤电厂开工建设，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）、欧洲或中东国家自2019年以来也没有任何燃煤电厂破土动工。
报告称，尼日利亚乌格博巴（Ugboba）发电站是自2019年以来非洲已知的首个煤电建设项目，该发电站位于三角洲州阿尼奥查北地区的伊多乌法洛拉煤矿（Idowu Falola Coal Mines）矿口。
七国集团（G7）目前占全球在运煤电装机容量的15%（310吉瓦），低于2015年的32%（443吉瓦）。该集团成员国已没有任何在建煤电项目。不过，日本和美国仍分别有一个和两个新煤电项目提案。
美国的两个新煤电项目提案，即宾夕法尼亚州0.4吉瓦的CONSOL项目和阿拉斯加州新宣布的0.4吉瓦的苏西特纳（Susitna）电站，预计都将采用碳捕集与封存技术（CCS）。
GEM表示，这些技术“具有很强的不确定性。相比退煤的迫切需求，它们是一个昂贵的转移注意力的方式”。
二十国集团（G20）拥有全球92%的在运煤电装机容量（1968吉瓦），其拟建的煤电装机容量总和占全球总量的88%（336吉瓦）。
现任G20轮值主席国巴西的拟建装机容量在2023年下降，但仍有两个正在推进的项目，它们也是拉丁美洲最后的拟建煤电项目。
“无新煤电”国家
GEM追踪器显示，总体而言，2023年的全球煤电装机容量达到了历史新高。
如下图所示，由于2023年退役的煤电装机容量为十多年来最低，中国以外的在运煤电装机容量自2019年以来首次出现增长。
自2015年以来，全球在运的煤电装机容量增长了11%。当年，《巴黎协定》使各国政府同意将全球平均温度保持在工业化前水平以上低于2℃之内，并将气温上升限制在工业化前水平以上1.5°C以内。
中国以外，正在建设的煤电装机总量达到113吉瓦。GEM表示，尽管这一数字仅比上一年的110吉瓦略有上升，但仍凸显出煤炭行业不符合国际能源署（IEA）对如何把气候控制在1.5°C以内情景的预测。
在IEA做出的所有符合国际气候目标的情景中，全球炭排放量都应在迅速下降。
GEM报告称，2023年全球拟建装机容量增长了6%，“这明确了呼吁停止规划和开工建设煤电厂的重要性”。
报告还补充称，目前在运的煤电装机容量中，只有15%（317吉瓦）承诺将按照《巴黎协定》的目标退役。
GEM指出，根据国际能源署提出的1.5°C路径，如果要在2040年前淘汰未减排的燃煤发电量，就需要在未来17年内平均每年淘汰126吉瓦的煤电装机容量。这相当于每周淘汰两座煤电厂。
GEM表示，如果把拟建和在建的578吉瓦项目计算在内，则需要更大幅度的削减。
有12个新国家加入了“助力淘汰煤炭联盟”（Powering Past coal Alliance），承诺在2023年不再开发新的煤电项目。GEM指出，总共有101个国家或已正式作出了“无新煤电”的承诺，或已在过去十年里放弃了任何新煤电建造。
GEM发现，自2015年以来，全球拟建装机容量减少了68%。目前，除中国外，新开工项目处于该数据开始收集以来的最低水平。
GEM的报告认为，新煤电建设提议的“最后阵地”是利用碳捕集与封存技术、以及将煤电用于工业活动。（碳捕集与封存技术，CCS，可减少燃煤产生的温室气体进入大气）
例如，津巴布韦在2023年规划了1.9吉瓦的新建煤电装机容量，其包括两个项目“声望”（Prestige）发电站和格韦鲁（Gweru）发电站，旨在为铬冶炼厂提供电力。
除中国和印度外，津巴布韦是去年新增总规划装机容量的六个国家之一，其他国家包括哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、俄罗斯、美国和菲律宾。
在COP28气候峰会上，130国签署了《全球可再生能源和能源效率承诺》，表示有意在2030年前逐步淘汰未减排的煤电，并停止投资未减排的新建燃煤电厂。
此外，COP28的最终“全球盘点”（Global Stocktake）协议重申了COP26大会关于逐步减少未减排的煤电的承诺，但仍未定义“未减排”（Unabated）的含义。此外，早期草案中关于停止核准新煤电项目的措辞在最终文本中被省略。
GEM报告指出：“煤电正处于悬崖边缘，面临着政治和民间的反对，经济上也越来越缺乏竞争力。”
GEM煤炭项目主任弗洛拉·尚普努瓦（Flora Champenois）在一份声明中说：“今年煤炭的变化趋势反常，因为所有迹象都表明，煤炭将从加速扩张的趋势中逆转。但是，那些要淘汰燃煤电厂的国家需要加快步伐，而那些计划新建燃煤电厂的国家必须确保这些电厂永远不会建成。否则，我们就别想实现《巴黎协定》的目标，也别想享有迅速过渡到清洁能源所带来的好处。”
The post 报告： 2023年中国新建煤电项目占全球的95% appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
UK, Europe and India battle heatwaves
‘MIND-BOGGLING’ MAY: The UK and continental Europe have set “mind-boggingly crazy” temperature records for May amid a deadly heatwave, reported the Financial Times. According to the Associated Press, the UK “smashed a century-old temperature record for the second time in 24 hours on Tuesday”. The newswire added that records “also fell in France, where temperatures reached 36C on Monday in the country’s south-west”. On Wednesday, Portugal hit a record May temperature of 40.3C, said BBC News.
‘BRUTAL REMINDER’: In parts of Italy, the heatwave triggered blackouts, reported Reuters. The heatwave has also been linked to more than a dozen deaths in the UK and France, including from people drowning and suffering heat-related deaths while competing in sporting events, said ABC News. Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of UN Climate Change, said the intense heatwaves were a “brutal reminder” of the cost of global warming, reported Politico. Carbon Brief has in-depth coverage of the record-shattering heatwave.
INDIA’S DEADLY HEAT: In the southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, more than 100 people died within three days following an intense heatwave, reported the Khaleej Times. The publication noted that authorities urged people to stay indoors and avoid direct exposure to the heat. Meanwhile, some parts of India are “grappling with power cuts as record-breaking heat has pushed electricity demand to an all-time high”, reported Reuters.
Around the world
- CRUDE DIPS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global investments in oil projects will fall below $500bn in 2026, continuing a three-year decline, reported Bloomberg. Carbon Brief’s analysis of the data shows the US’s “data-centre boom” means it is now investing more in fossil-fuel power than China.
- DODGING NET-ZERO: The world’s biggest miner, Australian giant BHP, has backtracked on climate action by halting or delaying projects to cut “vast” amounts of emissions, according to a Guardian investigation.
- SOLAR SLIP: China’s new solar installations dropped for a fourth straight month, reflecting weakening domestic demand, said Bloomberg.
- NO LOGGING: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell last year to its lowest level since 2019, according to a new report, said Agence France-Presse.
- EXECUTIVE ACTION: Puerto Rico’s governor announced a state of emergency to fight a surge in coastal erosion, citing the need to protect natural resources and vulnerable communities, reported the Associated Press.
Four million
The number of homes in the UK with air conditioning, double the figure from three years ago, reported the Guardian. There are 29m households in the UK.
Latest climate research
- Carbon Brief will soon be launching a new fortnightly newsletter focused on climate research. Sign up for free today.
- LGBTQ+ households in the US are “significantly more likely” to face energy poverty and insecurity than the general population | Energy Research & Social Science
- Global rice-paddy greenhouse gas emissions have doubled over the past six decades | Nature Food
- Vegetation greening and human-caused warming are the “main drivers” of a surge in flash floods over the last decade | Science Advances
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
A Carbon Brief investigation has shed light on the impact of weather-related flooding on National Health Service (NHS) facilities across the UK. At least 67 NHS hospital wards, departments and other sites have been forced to temporarily close or relocate due to weather-related flooding. The chart above shows sites of weather-related flooding incidents at NHS facilities. The size of the circles indicates the number of incidents reported at each site.
Spotlight
How solar mini-grids can ‘help boost’ Nigeria’s economy
This week, Carbon Brief covers a new report on Nigeria’s solar mini-grid industry.
Amid the impact of the US-Iran war on the Nigerian economy, a new report has argued that solar-mini grids can help to reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels and create more than 200,000 jobs.
In Nigeria, Africa’s third-largest economy, the war has led to an increase in energy prices and a decrease in petrol consumption. Petrol is one of the country’s main sources of transport and household fuel. According to one estimate, prices have surged by up to 40% since the conflict commenced in February.
Although the Nigerian treasury has benefited from rising crude oil prices – the country is a major exporter of oil and gas – the impact has been most visible on the wider population.
Rising energy prices “have affected the purchasing power of workers”, Agnes Funmi Sessi, a labour union leader in Lagos, told Carbon Brief.
However, scaling the deployment of solar “mini-grids” could help the country move away from fossil fuels, stimulate rural economies and improve livelihoods, according to the new report authored by the thinktank, the Africa Policy Research Institute.
“We estimate that, by deploying over 10,000 mini-grids, the sector could create 212,688 direct full-time informal and productive-use jobs across the off-grid and under-grid market segments,” the report said.
A nascent industry
Solar “mini-grids” are small-scale, localised electricity generation and distribution systems powered by solar panels.
The report positioned Nigeria’s mini-grid sector as one of the fastest-growing in Africa, with the country having just 11 mini-grids in 2015 and 155 by 2024, along with at least 42 active developers.
Many of the companies within the sector are young and apply novel local techniques in their deployment of solar technology, the report said.
However, access to finance remains a huge barrier. According to the report, the sector may require up to $8bn to connect 35.4 million people to mini-grids.
“Most Nigerians want solar power in their homes, but it is a capital intensive business for vendors and customers,” Dr Ben Iheagwara, a renewable energy entrepreneur and policy analyst, told Carbon Brief.
The report urged the Nigerian government and its international partners to “attract private capital by de-risking investments and ensuring regulatory clarity and long-term planning”.
Other key recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders include investment in skills development and paying attention to the gender gap.
Powering rural communities
Many rural communities, which make up about 37% of the country, are disconnected from the national grid system, so often have to generate their own electricity through mini-grid systems.
According to Nigeria’s electricity regulator, NERC, a mini-grid is defined as a power generating system with an installed capacity of up to 10 megawatts.
A mini-grid can be powered by fossil fuels such as diesel or petrol, but solar power is now considered a cheaper and cleaner source.
With more than 80 million people lacking access to electricity in Nigeria, solar mini-grids are increasingly viewed as the lowest-cost electrification solution, the report said.
Watch, read, listen
MOVING FORWARD: The Energy Transition Show dug into electricity reform in South Africa, discussing the country’s coal legacy and the role of renewables.
ENERGY POVERTY: In an opinion article for Project Syndicate, executive director of the African Climate Foundation, Saliem Fakir, argued that the energy transition in emerging and developing economies is driven by economics and security rather than emissions targets.
VANISHING CITY: BBC News reported on a coastal community in Nigeria where the ocean has “already swallowed more than half of the town”.
Coming up
- 31 May: Colombia presidential elections
- 31 May-5 June: Global Environment Facility council meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan
- 2-5 June: The Venice Agreement for Peatlands workshop, Kisumu, Kenya
Pick of the jobs
- National Oceanography Centre, engagement assistant (external communications) | Salary: £28,254. Location: Southampton, UK
- Dangote Industries, decarbonisation specialist | Salary: Unknown. Location: Lagos, Nigeria
- City of New York, chief decarbonization officer | Salary: $261,469. Location: New York City
- Climate Central, writer and associate editor | Salary: $72,000-$75,000. Location: US (Remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids appeared first on Carbon Brief.
At the African Development Bank (AfDB) annual meetings this week, several African leaders called for investments in electricity infrastructure which go beyond lighting homes to powering economies.
Applauding the AfDB for its energy programmes like Mission 300 – which aims to provide electricity access to 300 million Africans by 2030 – the Central African Republic’s President Faustin-Archange Touadera said that without power supply “we will not be able to achieve development”.
Speaking alongside him, the Republic of Congo’s President Denis Sassou Nguesso echoed this, saying that “as we need to help our people to turn towards agriculture, to turn towards livestock rearing, we also need to provide power to them.”
As the Mission 300 initiative advances, attention is increasingly shifting from simply connecting households to ensuring that electricity access translates into economic opportunities and livelihoods. That shift is driving the launch of a new Centre of Excellence for Productive Use of Energy being developed under Mission 300 by the philanthropically funded Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP).
-
Kenya seeks regional coordination to build African mineral value chains
Kenyan President William Ruto is the latest African leader to announce an end to raw mineral exports as governments want to add more value to their resources -
Africa needs more than export bans to cash in on critical minerals, experts say
Restricting raw materials exports is well-intentioned but without other policies to foster domestic processing, they can backfire -
Africa records fastest-ever solar growth, as installations jump in 2025
Africa’s solar power installations have increased sharply, driven by utility-scale projects and privately financed rooftop and commercial systems
In an interview with Climate Home News, Carol Koech, GEAPP’s vice president for Africa, said the initiative is designed to ensure that electrification supports income generation, agriculture and local economic development rather than only basic household access.
Q: What is the Centre of Excellence for Productive Use of Energy aiming to achieve with Mission 300?
A: Mission 300 is increasingly being seen as a job platform and so the role of the Centre of Excellence in translating those electricity connections to jobs. So we want the centre to do four things. First, as a delivery engine, which enables countries to embed a cross-institutional advisor that supports the electrification components, but also other components that are happening in the country.
Second, we want the centre to be an innovation and strategy hub. Today, there’s really no place where you can go to find the state of the industry for productive use of energy across the globe, and we want to make the centre of excellence the place where you can go and get information about what technologies are available, where deployment is happening and how much is being deployed.
(Photo: Lighting Global/SunCulture/World Bank)
The third pillar is to coordinate and mobilise capital. We anticipate the centre coordinating internally within the ecosystem but also mobilising additional financing to help productivity. The last piece is how to scale businesses, enterprises and partnerships around this centre because we anticipate that as we grow this space, new industries will emerge and those industries will need to be supported.
Q: Why is productive use of energy becoming important under Mission 300?
A: Mission 300 gave us a bigger platform to demonstrate that energy is truly an enabler for economic development. It’s not sufficient to just provide a connection, but it is required that that connection truly translates to economic development for the communities that benefit.
We shouldn’t bring electricity and then start thinking about what people can do with it. We need to think about both at the same time and ensure electricity arrives together with the things that will make a difference in people’s lives. Historically, we’ve brought electricity and imagined a miracle would happen, but we know that hasn’t been the case.
The question is how to ensure universal access in the cheapest way while still transforming communities. Some mini-grids have been deployed in places where demand is extremely low, making them too expensive to sustain. But when mini-grids are paired with productive uses, the economics start to change. If businesses currently running on fossil fuel generators move to solar or renewable energy, operating costs fall and the business case for mini-grids becomes much stronger.
Q: How could this work in practice for agriculture and rural communities?
A: I’ll give you a practical example in our pilot country Zambia. Zambia has two programmes, they have the ASCENT programme for energy access and they also have the Zambia agribusiness and trade platform (ZATP). Some of the components of the ZATP programme – which is an agri-business program to help farmers to be productive – have a productive use component but don’t have an energy supply component. So we’re offering things like mills, processing facilities, irrigation and others. In some parts of Zambia, these productive use equipment has been supplied but has not been powered, so communities are not benefiting from that.
So the whole point is if we coordinate where the agribusiness programme is deployed together with where the energy access programme is deployed and layer those two programmes together in one place, then you could solve the energy access problem and solve productive use together and therefore have really meaningful outcomes for communities.
Q: How will the centre help both households and small businesses use electricity productively?
A: The question on whether we should electrify households or businesses is neither here nor there. We need to electrify all. The argument is really once we electrify businesses, the owners of those businesses will be able to pay what they need for their households as well as increase production for their businesses.
Electricity consumption is usually an indicator of economic development and by pushing productive use into households, especially where households are also smallholder farmers, the question becomes: how can electricity access translate to additional economic development for them? If you are connected onto a mini-grid, then you can actually use that connection to run irrigation, put in a dryer, or a cold storage system, whatever you require to improve your income but the fact that you have energy means that you can access productive use. Now, we need to ask ourselves how do these farmers or these households then get access to these appliances, because that’s another barrier.
Q&A: Will subsidy cuts for Chinese clean-tech exports hurt Africa’s solar boom?
The cost of these appliances is usually extremely high, and when you have programmes such as the ZATP running in Zambia, that’s already a public funding approach to making these appliances available and potentially reachable for farmers, either at household level, at farm level or at community level.
Q: How does this complement the already existing Mission 300 national energy compacts designed by countries?
A: Each of the national energy compacts have a productive use component, a pillar that talks about distributed renewable energy, productive use, and clean cooking. This is actually complementing the work of the countries, and this centre is like an available support, back office for countries to tap into as they implement their national energy compacts, if they have specific requirements and support for that pillar three.
So the advisers that will be embedded into countries, their role is to coordinate within country programs that are running where energy could make a difference. The advisers will be sourced from the country and so they will make sure that the donor money is coordinated to benefit the country fully. Their role will include going to ministries of agriculture or any related ministries and understanding where they are prioritising programmes that require electrification. In many cases, programmes and money have already been allocated, but this component is about how do we deploy it in a way that it actually truly brings a difference, so those advisers will do that.
Q: How will the centre address financing and private sector investment challenges?
A: What we’re really looking at is different financing mechanisms. In the past, we have provided subsidies and results-based financing to suppliers, distributors and manufacturers to help create markets for productive-use appliances. I see this as one mechanism the centre could use, but the bigger opportunity is aligning public funding across different programmes so that more of it can support productive uses, either through direct funding or subsidies.
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When it comes to private sector investment, the reality is that Africa’s energy sector still faces serious constraints. Most private investment has gone into power generation, particularly through independent power producers, and even then that has only been possible in places where the off-takers, usually utilities, are bankable.
To unlock more private capital, countries need the right policies, reforms and regulations, but even more importantly, utilities must become financially viable. If the off-taker is not bankable, then the project is not bankable.
Another major question is how to attract private investment into transmission infrastructure. There are different models being explored, but the reality is that public funding alone is not sufficient to achieve Mission 300, so finding new ways to mobilise private capital will be critical.
The post Q&A: How can African electricity access power jobs not just lightbulbs? appeared first on Climate Home News.
Q&A: How can African electricity access power jobs not just lightbulbs?
The “data-centre boom” is driving a surge in gas investment in the US, pushing its fossil-power spending ahead of China, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
A rapid expansion of data centres across the nation is at the heart of the US tech sector’s plans to continue “dominat[ing]” the global artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
High demand for electricity to power these data centres has led to companies rushing to build new gas-fired power plants across the country.
This trend, combined with “soaring” gas-turbine prices, drove a threefold increase in US gas‑power investment in 2025 – and the IEA expects this to continue throughout 2026.
As the chart below shows, Chinese investment in coal- and gas-fired power is expected to drop this year, amid domestic policy changes and the Iran war sending gas prices spiralling.
Together, these trends mean the IEA expects US investment in fossil-fuelled power plants to overtake China’s in 2026.
The IEA’s latest world energy investment report shows that spending on renewables and electricity grids continues to dominate at the global scale.
In the US, Trump administration policies such as the phase-out of tax credits for renewables has led to the IEA revising its forecast for new wind and solar power downwards.
At the same time, US electricity demand is expected to rise by an average of 2% per year from 2026 to 2030, with data centres contributing half of the overall increase.
This is leading to what the IEA calls an “AI-driven push” to build new gas-power plants in the US, the world’s largest data-centre market and largest gas producer.
Globally, orders for new gas-power plants increased to 130 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 – a 25-year high – and US demand was a “major factor” in this, according to the IEA.
Much of the demand is coming from tech companies in the US seeking to bypass grid connection queues by building “captive” gas-power plants.
As the chart below shows, since the start of 2025 these US captive data centres alone have signed off on more investment in new gas turbines than any country in the world – aside from the US itself.
Overall, investment in grid upgrades, power equipment and electricity generation to support the buildout of data-centre infrastructure around the world hit $105bn in 2025, according to the IEA.
This is more than the total invested in the energy sector across the whole of Africa – a continent where more than 600 million people do not have access to electricity.
The IEA notes that strong demand for gas-power plants for data centres in the US – and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East – is “limiting the availability of turbines for near-term deployment elsewhere in the world”.
The agency also points out that as the tech sector becomes a “major energy investor”, accounting for around 40% of all corporate power-purchase agreements, it is also “underpinning momentum” for emerging clean technologies, such as small modular nuclear reactors and advanced geothermal.
The post AI boom means US is now ‘investing more’ in fossil-fuel power than China appeared first on Carbon Brief.
AI boom means US is now ‘investing more’ in fossil-fuel power than China
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