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人工智能(AI)等技术的蓬勃发展带动了中国数据中心的“爆发式增长”,同时也推高了能源消耗和碳排放。

截至2023年底,中国以449个数据中心的数量位居亚太地区之首。

国际能源署(IEA)最新报告显示,2024年中国数据中心用电量已占全球数据中心用电总量的25%,成为仅次于美国的全球第二大电力消耗国。

与各国情况类似,中国数据中心用电量预计将在未来几年持续快速增长,人工智能的兴起是重要推动因素之一。

不过,当前实际需求规模及未来增速仍存在不确定性。

现阶段,其他驱动因素对电力需求增长的影响仍远大于数据中心。

虽然各方对数据中心的预测数据存在差异,但有报告指出,其电力需求可能从2025年的100-200TWh(太瓦时)激增至2030年的600TWh,相应的CO2排放量或将达到200MtCO2e(百万吨二氧化碳当量)。

尽管中央和地方政府已出台多项政策以应对数据中心的环境影响,但挑战依然存在。

电力需求不断增长

中国国务院援引官媒《中国日报》2021年的一份报道称,2020年中国数据中心耗电量达200TWh,约占当年全国总用电量的2.7%,预计到2030年将增至400TWh(占比3.7%)。政府最新数据显示,2022年数据中心用电量为77TWh,2025年预计为150-200TWh,2030年或达400TWh。

2025年初,彭博社援引高盛(Goldman Sachs)更高预估称,中国数据中心的电力需求“预计将增长两倍多(从目前的200TWh),到2030年可能接近600TWh”。

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相比之下,国际能源署(IEA)的预测则更为保守,其预计2024年中国数据中心用电量仅为100TWh,到2027年可能翻倍。

无论从占全国电力需求的比重,还是作为需求增长的驱动力来看,数据中心的规模仍然有限。

不同机构的数据显示,当前中国数据中心用电量约占全国总用电量的0.9%至2.7%。

彭博社指出,数据中心的用电量“不到制造业的十分之一”,并提到仅2024年一年,工业用电需求就增加了300TWh。

国际能源署表示,自2022年以来,数据中心仅占新增电力需求的3%,到2027年这一比例可能升至6%。该机构认为,中国电力需求增长的主要推动力来自工业领域,包括工业电气化及供热和交通电气化。

不过,国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所副主任韩雪表示,到2025年底,数据中心相关的CO2排放量预计将占全国总排放量的1%。

建设“绿色数据中心”

2021年,中国宣布了一项为期三年的行动计划,旨在建设“高效、清洁、集约、循环”的“新型数据中心”。

该行动计划包括提高数据中心PUE(电能利用效率)的措施。PUE是衡量数据中心能源效率最常用的指标。

其计算方式是将数据中心总能耗除以IT设备能耗。该比值越高,表明数据中心的能效越低。

截至行动计划结束,全国数据中心平均PUE已从上年的1.54降至1.48。

2024年提出的新目标是到2025年将大型数据中心的PUE控制在1.25以下。相比之下,拥有欧洲最多数据中心的德国要求现有数据中心从2027年起平均PUE需达到1.5。

与此同时,中国于2022年启动了备受期待的“东数西算”国家工程,旨在处理东部人口稠密省份产生的数据。该项目鼓励在西部太阳能和风能资源丰富的地区建设新数据中心,以支持东部繁忙的大都市。

根据该工程规划,中西部地区的数据中心将处理更多非实时云计算需求,如离线分析和存储备份,而对时效性要求高的数据服务仍由东部地区提供。

内蒙古等北方地区的地方政府也出台了配套政策,推动数据中心与可再生能源设施协同建设。

此外,北京地方政府已为数据中心提供资金支持,用于改善其PUE。而南方科技中心广东省则选择将部分数据中心建在海底,以减少冷却需求并降低能耗。

自2020年起,中国政府持续跟踪数据中心能源转型进展。2024年最新数据显示,全国已有50余个数据中心达到“绿色”能源标准,其中国家电网1个、互联网企业14个。

面临可再生能源挑战

到2030年,中国数据中心预计将消耗400TWh至600TWh的电力,相关排放量可能达到200MtCO2e。

当前,中国可再生能源资源主要集中在北方地区,而电力需求仍集中在东南沿海。这意味着,即便有“东数西算”工程的支持,数据中心通常也依赖于长距离输电来使用可再生能源。

“绿色电力在数据中心行业应用前景广阔,但仍面临诸多挑战。”绿色和平气候与能源资深项目主任吕歆说。

她向Carbon Brief指出:“完成跨省绿色电力交易仍然非常困难。”她解释道,这主要受限于可再生能源发电的不稳定性以及长距离输电线路的高昂运维成本。

中国已出台相关政策,支持绿电直供数据中心,并建设了配备专用可再生能源和储能设施的“绿色电力产业园区”。

“这些政策的推进和市场机制的完善将促进数据中心使用绿电。”吕歆补充道。

另一项挑战是数据中心的用水需求。由于需要大量冷却用水,数据中心可能加剧西部和北部地区本就紧张的水资源压力。

为应对这一问题,北京、宁夏和甘肃等地政府已出台强制性措施,要求提升数据中心用水效率,并逐步淘汰电力和水效率低下的数据中心。

随着数据中心规模不断扩大以满足人工智能运算需求,未来可能出现更多耗电量达数千兆瓦的”超大规模”数据中心,这将带来更大的电力供应压力。在国家整体电力结构中,采用更清洁的燃料组合有助于减少排放。

但研究机构SemiAnalysis指出,由于中国对煤炭的依赖,当前中国数据中心“在排放方面处于明显劣势”。

目前煤炭在中国能源结构中占比约60.5%。国际能源署数据显示,中国大部分数据中心所在的东部地区,约70%电力来自煤电。不过该机构预测,2030年后可再生能源与核能的快速发展将“推动煤炭的退出”。

该报告预计,到2035年,可再生能源和核能将“共同满足中国数据中心60%的电力供应”。

The post 解读:中国如何应对数据中心能源增长的需求 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

解读:中国如何应对数据中心能源增长的需求

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AI data centre ban in suburbs would not address fundamental issues: Greenpeace

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SYDNEY, Thursday 30 October 2026 — In response to
reports that the Albanese government is set to introduce draft legislation this year that would seek to ban data centres in Australia’s suburbs, Joe Rafalowicz, Head of Climate and Energy at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said:

“These reports are a testament to the growing community opposition to these completely inappropriate AI factories that have sprung up across our suburbs, and Big Tech corporations should take heed — the data centre build-out must not happen without the endorsement of the Australian people.

“But the government can’t simply ship this problem out to regional Australia without addressing the fundamental issues with this extractive new industry.

“We’re already seeing a trend of AI data centre proposals moving to the regions, in areas that are more water-scarce, more environmentally sensitive, and next to sources of fracked and coal seam gas to support their massive BYO gas-fired power plans — a pattern we’ve seen play out in the United States.

“From the Beetaloo Basin in the NT to the Western Downs in Qld, we’re seeing a wave of AI data centre proposals that would see new gas fast-tracked to support their massive energy demand, and threaten to completely derail Australia’s energy transition.

“Just as suburban Australians are asking, “what for?”, regional communities like Berry Springs and Dalby do not want dirty data centres setting up shop with absolutely no benefit to their communities. Greenpeace is calling for a moratorium on AI data centre developments until strict and enforceable safeguards are in place to protect our climate and our communities.”

-ENDS-

Media contact

Kate O’Callaghan on +61 406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org

AI data centre ban in suburbs would not address fundamental issues: Greenpeace

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Editor’s Desk: COP reform is happening quietly, behind the headlines

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In the thick of the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan in 2024, the UN climate talks were rattled by what can only be described as a major PR disaster. The BBC, Reuters and The Guardian all carried headlines, attributed to leading climate policy experts, that the COPs were “no longer fit for purpose”. 

The articles outlined a series of reforms called for in an open letter signed by 22 eminent scientists and politicians, including a former UN secretary-general and previous UN climate chief, with a further 150 lending their support. The headlines shook confidence in the COP process, just as governments were wrestling over a new climate finance goal.

The Club of Rome – which handled the media relations for the letter – hurried to say that its “constructive, supportive ideas” had been “misinterpreted”. Negotiators kept calm(ish) and carried on, in the end landing the finance goal after some high-stakes drama on the final day.

    To my surprise, when I went back this week to read the letter again, I could not find the offending line about the COPs not being fit for purpose. The Club of Rome has yet to respond to my query about its disappearance.

    Whatever happened to the wording, that sentiment has been widely shared. COPs have ballooned in size while the importance of their outcomes seems to have diminished since the 2015 Paris Agreement (with the exception of the 2023 COP in Dubai where countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems).

    The same on the surface

    Two years on from those painful headlines in Baku, has anything changed for the better? You might be forgiven for thinking not. Official decisions are still made by consensus rather than the majority voting some have called for to stop blockers.

    Tens of thousands of officials, activists and business execs still scurry around the halls to an ever-growing list of side events, roundtables and dialogues, while deals still come down to rows, all-nighters and jargon-filled texts adopted to rounds of applause.

    But it would not be true to say that COPs have completely failed to respond to the very real need to translate the words of the Paris Agreement into action in the outside world.

    Global warming is projected to be around 1.3C lower this century than it would have been if the world had not committed to tackle the climate crisis under that accord. Developing countries have a valued space at COPs in which their voices have equal weight in decision-making, unlike in many other international fora. And most importantly, perhaps, there has been a subtle shift, tipping the balance away from negotiating towards doing.

    Brazil branded last year’s summit in Belém as the “COP of Implementation”, corralling the sprawling Action Agenda into six axes. This was a bid to impose some structure on the mushrooming efforts between governments, UN agencies, cities, businesses and civil society to set targets and spur faster results on their pet issues, from methane emissions to health and adaptation in conflict zones. COP30 alone saw the launch of 120 “plans to accelerate solutions”.

    COP30 roadmaps off the cuff

    Meanwhile, as the formal negotiations drew to a close, it was clear that consensus decision-making was evolving into something a little more improvised.

    With only around half of all countries on board with the idea of a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago announced his team would put one together over the coming year, along with another on how to meet a global goal to halt deforestation by 2030. Those roadmaps will be launched next week, presented and discussed at COP31, though it’s still unclear whether or how they’ll be incorporated into the formal negotiating agenda.

    Saudi Arabia raises a point of order during the closing plenary at COP30 in Belem, Brazil on November 22, 2025 (Photo: IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis)

    Saudi Arabia raises a point of order during the closing plenary at COP30 in Belem, Brazil on November 22, 2025 (Photo: IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis)

    Some leading policy-makers don’t think that matters too much. Speaking to journalists before the Antalya summit, COP30 CEO Ana Toni and Dutch climate minister Stientje van Veldhoven said “coalitions of the willing” can move ahead without needing consensus from the COPs. This, they said, was evident this year at the first global conference on TAFF, co-chaired by van Veldhoven and attended by 60 countries.

    “Consensus or no-consensus in the general COP doesn’t make a difference for the choices I have to make in my country to get my country to phase out fossil fuels,” said the Dutch minister. The Netherlands recently became one of the first to publish a national TAFF plan.

    COP31 banks on flagship voluntary initiatives

    This thinking has permeated the management and expected outcomes of this year’s COP too. Earlier this year, Türkiye, supported by international energy agencies, floated the idea of a voluntary goal to boost electrification to 35% of the world’s final energy consumption by 2035 – and this is now being touted as one of the main results to be expected from Antalya.

    Türkiye is also championing a pledge on AI and climate, while co-host Australia is pushing to ease access to climate finance for least developed countries and small island states.

    COP31 presidency announces AI pledge as UN climate chief says Big Tech ‘on thin ice’

    None of these needs consensus. But with a political cover decision already in the works, as trailed by the COP presidents, they – and perhaps the fossil fuel roadmap – may find a home in the official text if language acceptable to most can be found, giving them them additional weight.

    UNFCCC reform process in the shadows

    Formal reform is underway too, if quietly. UN climate chief Simon Stiell is leading a review informed by ongoing consultations with a group of 15 well-respected climate policy experts, three of whom signed the open letter in 2024.

    Among them is leading Swedish climate and sustainability scientist Johan Rockström who has strong ideas about how to make COPs function better, including a switch to majority voting. He told the same press briefing nothing stands in the way of this, because the rules of procedure for making decisions at COPs have never been formally agreed.

    Still, to get away from the default setting of consensus would require agreement on a new system that may be impossible to achieve given the rise in bullying tactics by fossil fuel heavyweights.

    Comment: The UN climate process was built for negotiation – now it must support implementation

    The deliberations with the high-level policy gurus, as reflected in a summary of June’s session in Bonn, largely echo what’s already happening organically, calling for stronger partnerships and accountability both in and between the Action Agenda and negotiations. It doesn’t mention voting.

    A general overview of the reform exercise says that “improving and optimizing the [UN climate] process over the medium to long term… will be critical to fostering trust, enhancing collaboration, and catalyzing increased ambition”.

    In the short term, don’t hold your breath for anything concrete on reform at COP31 but watch for signs in what ends up dominating the headlines from Türkiye.

    The post Editor’s Desk: COP reform is happening quietly, behind the headlines appeared first on Climate Home News.