Connect with us

Published

on

人工智能(AI)等技术的蓬勃发展带动了中国数据中心的“爆发式增长”,同时也推高了能源消耗和碳排放。

截至2023年底,中国以449个数据中心的数量位居亚太地区之首。

国际能源署(IEA)最新报告显示,2024年中国数据中心用电量已占全球数据中心用电总量的25%,成为仅次于美国的全球第二大电力消耗国。

与各国情况类似,中国数据中心用电量预计将在未来几年持续快速增长,人工智能的兴起是重要推动因素之一。

不过,当前实际需求规模及未来增速仍存在不确定性。

现阶段,其他驱动因素对电力需求增长的影响仍远大于数据中心。

虽然各方对数据中心的预测数据存在差异,但有报告指出,其电力需求可能从2025年的100-200TWh(太瓦时)激增至2030年的600TWh,相应的CO2排放量或将达到200MtCO2e(百万吨二氧化碳当量)。

尽管中央和地方政府已出台多项政策以应对数据中心的环境影响,但挑战依然存在。

电力需求不断增长

中国国务院援引官媒《中国日报》2021年的一份报道称,2020年中国数据中心耗电量达200TWh,约占当年全国总用电量的2.7%,预计到2030年将增至400TWh(占比3.7%)。政府最新数据显示,2022年数据中心用电量为77TWh,2025年预计为150-200TWh,2030年或达400TWh。

2025年初,彭博社援引高盛(Goldman Sachs)更高预估称,中国数据中心的电力需求“预计将增长两倍多(从目前的200TWh),到2030年可能接近600TWh”。

上微信关注《碳简报》

相比之下,国际能源署(IEA)的预测则更为保守,其预计2024年中国数据中心用电量仅为100TWh,到2027年可能翻倍。

无论从占全国电力需求的比重,还是作为需求增长的驱动力来看,数据中心的规模仍然有限。

不同机构的数据显示,当前中国数据中心用电量约占全国总用电量的0.9%至2.7%。

彭博社指出,数据中心的用电量“不到制造业的十分之一”,并提到仅2024年一年,工业用电需求就增加了300TWh。

国际能源署表示,自2022年以来,数据中心仅占新增电力需求的3%,到2027年这一比例可能升至6%。该机构认为,中国电力需求增长的主要推动力来自工业领域,包括工业电气化及供热和交通电气化。

不过,国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所副主任韩雪表示,到2025年底,数据中心相关的CO2排放量预计将占全国总排放量的1%。

建设“绿色数据中心”

2021年,中国宣布了一项为期三年的行动计划,旨在建设“高效、清洁、集约、循环”的“新型数据中心”。

该行动计划包括提高数据中心PUE(电能利用效率)的措施。PUE是衡量数据中心能源效率最常用的指标。

其计算方式是将数据中心总能耗除以IT设备能耗。该比值越高,表明数据中心的能效越低。

截至行动计划结束,全国数据中心平均PUE已从上年的1.54降至1.48。

2024年提出的新目标是到2025年将大型数据中心的PUE控制在1.25以下。相比之下,拥有欧洲最多数据中心的德国要求现有数据中心从2027年起平均PUE需达到1.5。

与此同时,中国于2022年启动了备受期待的“东数西算”国家工程,旨在处理东部人口稠密省份产生的数据。该项目鼓励在西部太阳能和风能资源丰富的地区建设新数据中心,以支持东部繁忙的大都市。

根据该工程规划,中西部地区的数据中心将处理更多非实时云计算需求,如离线分析和存储备份,而对时效性要求高的数据服务仍由东部地区提供。

内蒙古等北方地区的地方政府也出台了配套政策,推动数据中心与可再生能源设施协同建设。

此外,北京地方政府已为数据中心提供资金支持,用于改善其PUE。而南方科技中心广东省则选择将部分数据中心建在海底,以减少冷却需求并降低能耗。

自2020年起,中国政府持续跟踪数据中心能源转型进展。2024年最新数据显示,全国已有50余个数据中心达到“绿色”能源标准,其中国家电网1个、互联网企业14个。

面临可再生能源挑战

到2030年,中国数据中心预计将消耗400TWh至600TWh的电力,相关排放量可能达到200MtCO2e。

当前,中国可再生能源资源主要集中在北方地区,而电力需求仍集中在东南沿海。这意味着,即便有“东数西算”工程的支持,数据中心通常也依赖于长距离输电来使用可再生能源。

“绿色电力在数据中心行业应用前景广阔,但仍面临诸多挑战。”绿色和平气候与能源资深项目主任吕歆说。

她向Carbon Brief指出:“完成跨省绿色电力交易仍然非常困难。”她解释道,这主要受限于可再生能源发电的不稳定性以及长距离输电线路的高昂运维成本。

中国已出台相关政策,支持绿电直供数据中心,并建设了配备专用可再生能源和储能设施的“绿色电力产业园区”。

“这些政策的推进和市场机制的完善将促进数据中心使用绿电。”吕歆补充道。

另一项挑战是数据中心的用水需求。由于需要大量冷却用水,数据中心可能加剧西部和北部地区本就紧张的水资源压力。

为应对这一问题,北京、宁夏和甘肃等地政府已出台强制性措施,要求提升数据中心用水效率,并逐步淘汰电力和水效率低下的数据中心。

随着数据中心规模不断扩大以满足人工智能运算需求,未来可能出现更多耗电量达数千兆瓦的”超大规模”数据中心,这将带来更大的电力供应压力。在国家整体电力结构中,采用更清洁的燃料组合有助于减少排放。

但研究机构SemiAnalysis指出,由于中国对煤炭的依赖,当前中国数据中心“在排放方面处于明显劣势”。

目前煤炭在中国能源结构中占比约60.5%。国际能源署数据显示,中国大部分数据中心所在的东部地区,约70%电力来自煤电。不过该机构预测,2030年后可再生能源与核能的快速发展将“推动煤炭的退出”。

该报告预计,到2035年,可再生能源和核能将“共同满足中国数据中心60%的电力供应”。

The post 解读:中国如何应对数据中心能源增长的需求 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

解读:中国如何应对数据中心能源增长的需求

Continue Reading

Climate Change

Battle over cleaning up shipping set to resume at London talks

Published

on

The US is expected to resume its attempt to sink measures for a greener global shipping sector at closed-door talks between governments at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in early September.

The US and oil-producing allies like Saudi Arabia want to weaken a proposed plan for cleaner fuels that aims to reduce planet-heating emissions from the industry, which relies heavily on dirty bunker fuels. Shipping currently represents 3% of global emissions.

Those that want a softer system are likely to back a Liberian proposal which expert analysis suggests would see emissions fall by only half at most by 2050, far short of the sector’s agreed climate goals.

After several years of debate, governments provisionally agreed in April 2025 on the “Net Zero Framework” (NZF), a series of emissions reduction targets for shipowners, backed up with financial rewards for meeting the targets and fees for missing them.

But in October 2025, after a high-profile intervention from US President Donald Trump and threats of sanctions and visa restrictions, the US convinced a majority of voting nations to postpone the adoption of the NZF for a year.

Ralph Regenvanu, climate minister for the Pacific nation of Vanuatu, called the delay “unacceptable” given the urgency of accelerating climate change.

After a round of low-profile talks in May, the first of three further sets of talks on how to clean up shipping will begin at the IMO’s riverside headquarters in London on Tuesday, culminating in a final public session in November.

Em Fenton, who follows the talks as senior director of climate diplomacy at Opportunity Green, an NGO focused on aviation and shipping, said governments should not be sidetracked by alternative proposals to the NZF, calling them “a distraction from a hard-fought multilateral compromise”.

“If countries want to deliver a just and fair maritime transition, there is really only one choice: back the NZF and stand together in solidarity against those who would tear it apart,” Fenton added.

Five proposals on the table

Governments will discuss five different proposals submitted in advance of next week’s meeting. The most ambitious of these is from the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, which has proposed a levy on the entirety of a ship’s emissions rather than just those above a certain level, as the NZF envisions.

That had been the original demand of Pacific nations before the NZF was provisionally adopted in April 2025. At the time, Tuvalu’s transport minister Simon Kofe described the NZF as disappointing and not ambitious enough.

For this reason, six Pacific countries abstained in the vote on the NZF. While they supported the original plan for its adoption in October 2025, they have used the delay to push again for more ambition.

John Kautoke, advisor to a group of Pacific nations called 6PAC+, told Climate Home News that the NZF “cannot diminish its already inadequate ambition. If anything, the NZF must increase in ambition if we are going to renegotiate its parameters.”

    Analysis by the Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology (IMarEST) suggests that, of the five proposals, only Tuvalu’s would meet the 2030 and 2040 emissions reduction targets for global shipping that were agreed by governments in 2023. Those were for cuts of 20% between 2008 and 2030, 70% by 2040 and then reaching net zero “by or around, i.e. close to 2050”.

    Despite this, the UK, Australia, Canada and South Africa have formally proposed that governments adopt the NZF, which won support in a 63-13 vote among governments at the April 2025 talks. Trump’s US walked out halfway through.

    According to IMarEst’s analysis, while the NZF proposal will not be enough to meet the industry’s targets, it will reduce emissions more cheaply than the Pacific proposal.

    A proposal by Brazil – which fought hard for the NZF last October – suggests tweaking the framework to make meeting targets easier in the short term and harder in the long term.

    While this compromise will make it more appealing to the owners of polluting ships and countries that support them, IMarEst estimates it would lead to higher cumulative emissions than either the NZF or Pacific proposals.

    The NZF stipulates that fees for high-polluting shipowners should be be put into a Net Zero Fund and used to promote clean shipping fuels and a fairer transition. The Brazilian proposal would delay raising and spending these funds by two years, from 2029 to 2031.

    Liberia’s proposal weakens emissions cuts

    The US and Saudi Arabia are likely to swing behind a new proposal from Liberia, whose government makes millions of dollars a year selling the right for shipowners to register their vessels in the small West African nation via a US-based company.

    This proposal would weaken the emissions reduction targets. IMarEst says it would cut the industry’s emissions at most by a half by 2050, falling far short of the target agreed in 2023 for international shipping to reach net zero “close to 2050”.

    It would also replace the NZF’s fees for missing targets with a carbon trading system. As a result, there would be no Net Zero Fund and therefore less money available to incentivise green fuels and make the transition more equitable for poorer nations.

    Pacific advisor Kautoke said that, as well as preventing shipping from reaching zero emissions by 2050, Liberia’s proposal would mean the Pacific “will not receive any support to deal with the disproportionately negative impacts created by the cost of the transition”.

    “We get a double blow if we adopt the Liberian proposal,” he warned. “We get all the cost of a transition without any support, and we have an industry that continues to burn fossil fuels to an unforeseen point.”

    Japanese proposal favours shipowners

    Japan has submitted a late proposal to amend the NZF so that shipowners have more control over how the fees they would pay for emitting above a set threshold are spent.

    University College London professor Tristan Smith has argued that this change means there will be no central mechanism to incentivise investments in clean fuels. He wrote on LinkedIn that under the system put forward by Japan, shipowners would be able to select which green projects their fees would go to. They could choose their own or those of a sister company or other shipowners, rather than funding broader just transition projects that would benefit marine workers or developing countries hit by rising shipping costs.

    Despite its flaws, Smith added that Japan’s proposal “could still get taken seriously by some, given how appealing it may seem to shipowners who have consistently demanded control of revenues, and given how the US and other member states have pushed back against the IMO Net Zero Fund and [greenhouse gas] pricing.”

    Tacit or explicit approval?

    Next week, governments are expected to make statements saying which proposals – or which aspects of proposals – they prefer. Another set of talks will be held from November 23-27 before a potentially final round from November 30-December 4.

    A new framework to tackle shipping emissions could be adopted at those talks if two-thirds of countries that are present and signed up to a regulation called Marpol Annex VI – endorsed by just over 100 states – vote in favour of it, as they did in April 2025.

    The US and its allies are also trying to change the rules to make the next stage more difficult. Decisions that have been adopted at IMO meetings usually take effect automatically unless a certain number of countries object within a certain time period decided by governments, a system known as tacit approval.

    But the US wants that to require explicit approval instead, so that any new emissions standard would not come into force unless enough governments – representing a certain percentage of the world’s shipping fleet – actively indicate support for it.

    Critics say this change would give a small number of countries with large shipping registries the power to block implementation. Liberia has the world’s biggest shipping registry, run by an American company, followed by Panama and the Republic of the Marshall Islands.

    Liberia and Panama have supported the US at the talks on the Net Zero Framework. The Marshall Islands has long been one of the most vocal supporters of climate action in shipping but, with its officials and shipping registry income vulnerable to US retaliation, did not sign on to the recent Pacific proposal vowing to strengthen the NZF if it is re-opened.

    Brazilian negotiator Adriana de Medeiros Gabinio warned in April that the NZF’s opponents are trying to change the rules by which it comes into force as a “safety net to block” it.

    The post Battle over cleaning up shipping set to resume at London talks appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Battle over cleaning up shipping set to resume at London talks

    Continue Reading

    Climate Change

    Coles, Woolworths failing on deforestation commitments 

    Published

    on

    SYDNEY, Wednesday 26 August 2026 — New 2026 Sustainability Reports released by supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths this week demonstrate the retailers are failing on their commitments to end deforestation in their supply chains.

    Adele Chasson, Nature Policy Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said:

    “These so-called sustainability reports are revealing. Despite their public commitments in 2024 and 2025, neither Coles nor Woolworths have taken deforestation-linked beef off their shelves. Meanwhile, bulldozers continue to tear up forests and bushland, pushing wildlife closer to extinction and causing mass toxic runoff to flow into the Great Barrier Reef. Millions of native animals like koalas are losing their homes to beef pastures each year, while the big supermarkets put off action.

    “Australians would be shocked to know that beef on the shelves of our biggest supermarkets could be pushing threatened species to the brink of extinction. Collectively Coles and Woolworths have made more than $2 billion in profits in the last year, profiting from the destruction of wildlife and precious Australian nature. Coles and Woolworths owe it to shoppers to deliver on their promises and end deforestation in their supply chains now.

    “As big beef buyers, Coles and Woolworths have an essential role to play in keeping Australia’s unique forests standing. They can help stop the Great Barrier Reef from being poisoned by runoff and protect iconic forest wildlife by taking deforestation off their shelves. It’s time these big companies put their money where their mouths are and follow through on their promise of sourcing and supplying deforestation-free beef.”

    Coles, Woolworths failing on deforestation commitments 

    Continue Reading

    Climate Change

    New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation

    Published

    on

    New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.

    The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.

    Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.

    “Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.

    Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.

      Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.

      Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.

      In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.

      Corporate lobbying in the shadows

      Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.

      “That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”

      The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.

      The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.

      Green groups fail to stop bill

      The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.

      But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.

      A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.

      “Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035

      Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.

      But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.

      The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.

      Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”

      Copycat legislation on the rise

      New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.

      In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.

      The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.

      UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court

      Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.

      “Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.

      The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.

      New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation

      Continue Reading

      Trending

      Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com