BHP Group delivered a strong first-half performance for FY26, confirming a major shift in global commodity markets. The world’s largest miner posted underlying attributable profit of $6.2 billion, up 22% year over year and broadly in line with forecasts. More importantly, copper has now become the company’s dominant earnings driver.

For the first time in its history, copper contributed 51% of BHP’s underlying EBITDA. This milestone reflects both higher production and stronger prices. It also signals that the long-anticipated structural tightness in copper markets is beginning to materialize.

CEO Mike Henry emphasized that BHP had positioned itself early for this moment. Over the past four years, the company lifted copper production by roughly 30%. That expansion now aligns with rising global demand tied to electrification, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure.

Copper Delivers Record Earnings as Prices Rise

Copper earnings jumped in the first half. The division’s underlying EBITDA rose 59% to $8 billion. Higher prices, up about a third, helped drive the gain. Margins topped 60%, showing strong operations and favorable market conditions.

Strong output from Escondida in Chile, along with solid contributions from South Australia, boosted BHP’s results. As a result, the company raised its FY26 copper production guidance to 1.9–2.0 million tonnes. While some competitors lowered their forecasts, BHP went the other way, showing confidence in its operations.

At the same time, better cost management improved profits. Unit costs dropped across major copper assets, helping cash flow while prices stayed high. The company’s internal operating system also kept operations running efficiently and productively.

Meanwhile, iron ore earnings edged higher but showed slower momentum. Demand from Chinese steel exports and manufacturing offset weakness in the country’s property sector. However, China’s broader growth has plateaued. That shift explains why copper, rather than iron ore, now anchors BHP’s earnings profile.

Growth Pipeline Expands Beyond Copper

Copper is driving earnings now, but BHP is also looking at long-term growth. The Jansen Stage 1 potash project is on track to start production by mid-2027. Costs were revised up to $8.4 billion. Once fully operational, each stage could generate about $1 billion in annual EBITDA.

BHP also has copper growth options in Chile, Argentina, Arizona, and South Australia. The company aims to reach around 2.5 million tonnes of copper-equivalent production per year by the mid-2030s. Growth is expected to stay steady through 2035.

Strategic moves are helping BHP’s position. Recent deals could free over $6 billion. This gives the company flexibility to invest in high-return copper projects.

• PREVIOUS: BHP Mines 2 Million Tonnes of Copper in FY25, Boosting EV and Renewable Growth 

Copper Market Turns Tighter Heading into 2026

The wider market also supports a positive outlook for copper. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) says global mine supply growth slowed more than expected. Mine production is expected to rise only slightly in 2025. Refined production may grow very slowly, only at 0.9% in 2026, because of concentrate shortages.

• As a result, the market, which had a surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025, could swing to a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026. This is a big change from earlier forecasts that expected a surplus.

At the same time, demand keeps rising. Global refined copper usage could grow about 2% in 2026, reaching nearly 29 million tonnes. Asia continues to drive growth, even though Chinese consumption has slowed. Renewable energy, electric vehicles, grid upgrades, urbanization, and digital infrastructure all support long-term copper demand.

Copper Prices to Hold Above $12,000?

LME copper prices have fluctuated in early 2026. Prices fell from €13,327 per tonne on February 11 to €12,757 per tonne on February 16, showing short-term volatility. COMEX spot prices also dipped to $5.7710 per pound on February 12, down 3% daily but still up over 25% year-over-year. LME stocks rose slightly to 211,850 tonnes, signaling some inventory replenishment.

J.P. Morgan forecasts an average of $12,075 per tonne in 2026. Prices could reach $12,500/tonne in the second quarter. Tight inventories and supply disruptions make the first half of the year particularly bullish.

Data centers are adding to demand. J.P. Morgan says copper used in data center installations could hit 475,000 tonnes in 2026, up 110,000 tonnes from this year. While still a small part of global demand, it adds pressure to an already tight market.

Higher prices could push some buyers toward aluminum. However, analysts warn that substitution is slow. It won’t quickly ease copper shortages.

• CLICK HERE FOR: LIVE COPPER PRICES 

BHP’s Strategic Advantage in a Structural Shift

For BHP, these trends back its long-term plan. Copper now makes up more than half of group earnings. The company increased production ahead of the market tightening. If prices stay above $12,000, margins could improve further.

Short-term volatility may continue. Slower growth in China or a weaker global economy could push prices down. On the other hand, mine disruptions or higher AI-related demand could push prices up.

Copper is vital for the energy transition. Electrification, decarbonization, and digitalization all need large amounts of the metal. With a projected deficit in 2026 and limited supply growth, the market fundamentals remain strong.

BHP’s results show more than a strong half-year. They highlight a bigger shift in commodities, where copper increasingly drives industrial growth and the clean energy transition.

• LATEST: Rio Tinto and Amazon Web Services (AWS) Join Forces to Supply Low-Carbon Copper for U.S. Data Centers

The post Copper Drives BHP’s $6.2B Profit Surge in FY26 Half-Year Results appeared first on Carbon Credits.

ArcelorMittal will invest €1.3 billion (about $1.5 billion) to build a new electric arc furnace (EAF) at its steel site in Dunkirk, France. The company said the project marks a major step in cutting emissions from its French steel production.

The steelmaker announced the decision as French President Emmanuel Macron visited the Dunkirk site. ArcelorMittal said it now has more confidence to move forward because of recent policy and market changes in Europe and France. CEO Geert van Poelvoorde said,

“The decision to proceed with building an EAF in ArcelorMittal Dunkirk, to produce low-carbon emissions steel at scale for our customers, has been made possible because we now have the conditions in place to make this project a success…We will now focus on steering the Dunkirk EAF project to completion and commercial success.”

The EAF is scheduled to start up in 2029. It will have a capacity of 2 million tonnes of steel per year. 

A 2M-Tonne Shift Toward Scrap-Based Steel

Electric arc furnaces make steel mainly by melting scrap steel. They can also use low-carbon inputs like HBI/DRI (hot briquetted iron / direct reduced iron) mixed with hot metal. ArcelorMittal said its Dunkirk EAF will use a mix of scrap, HBI/DRI, and hot metal.

The company also gave a clear emissions estimate. It said the new EAF will emit about 0.6 tonne of CO₂ per tonne of steel and deliver three times less CO₂ than steel made in a blast furnace route.

This matters because steel is a hard sector to decarbonize. The industry produces significant CO₂e emissions, due to energy-intensive processes and heavy fossil fuel use. 

Per World Steel Association, the steel industry produces ~3 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually, accounting for ~9% of global emissions. The industry emits an average of 1.89 tonnes CO₂ per tonne in 2020. Producing one tonne of steel generates 1.7-1.8 tonnes of CO₂ on average, depending on technology use as seen below.

How Will France Support the Investment?

ArcelorMittal said part of the project will receive public support through Energy Efficiency Certificates (CEE). CEE is a regulatory mechanism in France that promotes energy savings and CO₂ reductions. The company said the support amount will represent 50% of the €1.3 billion investment.

The steelmaker also pointed to a key energy step in France. It said it recently signed a contract with EDF to secure a long-term supply of low-carbon, competitive electricity. The company described this as a major part of its energy strategy in France.

Electricity supply is critical for EAFs. The carbon benefit of an EAF depends heavily on how clean the grid is and how stable power prices are over time.

Why Did ArcelorMittal Invest in Bunkirk?

ArcelorMittal said three developments gave it confidence to confirm the Dunkirk investment.

• Import Controls

First, it cited new European Commission proposals to limit unfair imports through a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) mechanism. ArcelorMittal said this approach would limit import quantities and impose additional duties if imports exceed set limits.

• CBAM

Second, it pointed to proposed reforms to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). ArcelorMittal said it expects these measures—if fully implemented—to restore “fair and competitive conditions” in the European steel market.

CBAM is the EU’s tool to apply a carbon price to certain carbon-intensive goods entering the EU. The European Commission says CBAM’s transitional phase runs from 2023 to 2025, and the definitive regime starts in 2026.

ArcelorMittal’s message was direct. It said it is important to implement the TRQ and adjust CBAM to close remaining loopholes as quickly as possible.

• EDF Deal

Third, it highlighted its EDF electricity deal as another factor supporting the project.

€500M Bet on Electrification Demand

ArcelorMittal also highlighted another major investment near Dunkirk. At its Mardyck plant, close to Dunkirk, the company said it is starting up a new electrical steel production unit this quarter.

It said the company invested €500 million in this facility. ArcelorMittal described it as its largest investment in Europe in the last 10 years, excluding decarbonization projects.

Electrical steel is used in electric motors and other electrification applications. ArcelorMittal said the new plant supports the electrification of industrial and automotive uses. This point matters for demand.

Steelmakers often need clearer long-term demand signals for low-carbon materials before committing large capital to new production routes. 

• SEE MORE: Steel’s Heavy Carbon Burden: Is ArcelorMittal Pulling Back on Its Net Zero Climate Pledge?

From Blast Furnaces to EAFs: ArcelorMittal’s Broader Decarbonization Program

ArcelorMittal says it remains committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. The company set this as a group-wide goal in 2020.

In its latest sustainability update, ArcelorMittal’s absolute emissions for its 2024 operating perimeter are almost 50% lower than its 2018 operating perimeter. The steel manufacturer further said it has invested $1 billion in decarbonization projects over that period.

The company is also shifting more steel production to the electric arc furnace (EAF) route. EAF production accounted for about a quarter of its global steelmaking in 2024, up from 19% in 2018.

In Europe, ArcelorMittal is moving ahead with several EAF-led projects. It said it started construction of a 1.1 million-tonne EAF at its long products plant in Gijón, Spain, which it expects will cut emissions by 1 million tonnes of CO₂e. It is also increasing output at Sestao, Spain, to 1.6 million tonnes by 2026, using two EAFs.

ArcelorMittal markets its low-carbon products under the XCarb® brand. The company said it can deliver low-carbon steel with a footprint as low as 300 kg CO₂ per tonne of steel, and it expected XCarb sales to rise to around 400,000 tonnes in the year it reported.

More notably, the company already operates an industrial-scale carbon capture and utilization (CCU) facility at Ghent, Belgium, with two additional pilots underway at the same site. 

Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness Reshape Steel

Steel decarbonization requires major capital and new infrastructure. It also needs policy support that reduces carbon leakage risk and helps companies compete with lower-cost imports.

The EU’s CBAM design aims to put a fair carbon price on imports and reduce the incentive to shift production outside the EU. The Commission notes that CBAM is also aligned with the phase-out of free allowances under the EU ETS to support industrial decarbonization.

At the same time, the steel sector still needs faster progress on emissions cuts. The IEA notes that steel emissions and emissions intensity need to fall by about 25% by 2030—around 3% per year—to get on track for net zero by mid-century.

ArcelorMittal’s Dunkirk EAF fits this direction. It shifts part of production toward a lower-emissions process and signals confidence that market rules are moving toward stronger climate and competitiveness safeguards.

Execution Phase: Can Policy and Profit Align?

ArcelorMittal said it will now focus on delivering the Dunkirk EAF project through to completion and commercial success.

The company also said it will review the possibility of building further EAFs elsewhere in Europe, but it plans to take a cautious approach based on its “economic decarbonisation” strategy.

For France, the project adds to broader efforts to keep heavy industry competitive while cutting emissions. Meanwhile, it reflects a wider shift toward low-carbon industrial investment for Europe backed by border measures, market defenses, and energy contracts.

For customers, the key outcome is supply. A 2-million-tonne EAF could provide lower-carbon steel at scale, starting in 2029, if the project stays on schedule and the policy measures ArcelorMittal cited take effect as planned.

• READ MORE: Electra Raises $186 Million in Temasek-led Round to Advance Green Steel Production

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On February 12, President Donald Trump and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin announced what they called the largest deregulation in U.S. history in the White House’s Roosevelt Room.

The EPA finalized a rule that removes the 2009 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Endangerment Finding. The Obama administration created this finding, and it gave the federal government the legal authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act for more than a decade.

The new rule also removes all federal greenhouse gas standards for cars, trucks, and engines built from model year 2012 through 2027 and beyond. In addition, the EPA ended compliance credits tied to certain technologies, including start-stop systems.

In short, the administration rolled back the key rule that supported federal climate regulations on vehicles.

The Role of the 2009 Endangerment Finding

In 2009, the EPA said that six major greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide—harm public health and the environment. The agency concluded that these gases drive climate change and damage air quality. That decision gave the federal government the authority to set emission limits for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles. It also supported climate rules for power plants and the oil and gas industry.

Because of this finding, the EPA introduced several greenhouse gas standards over the past decade. These rules shaped vehicle design, fuel economy targets, and broader climate policy across multiple sectors.

Why the EPA Repealed It Now

In 2025, the Trump administration began reviewing the 2009 decision. Officials argued that some of the science behind the finding was weaker than originally believed. They also said earlier climate projections were too pessimistic.

Now that the repeal is final, the EPA says it no longer has authority under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act to regulate greenhouse gases the way it did before. The agency believes Congress—not federal regulators—should decide major climate policy.

EPA leaders say this move restores a strict reading of the law and ends what they call regulatory overreach. Critics strongly disagree. Many scientists and public health experts argue that the repeal removes an important tool that protects Americans and helps address climate change.

Most importantly, the EPA estimates the final rule will save more than $1.3 trillion. It removes requirements for automakers to measure, report, certify, and comply with federal greenhouse gas standards. The agency says the rollback will lower vehicle prices, expand consumer choice, and reduce transportation costs for families and businesses.

Administrator Zeldin commented,

“The Endangerment Finding has been the source of 16 years of consumer choice restrictions and trillions of dollars in hidden costs for Americans. Referred to by some as the ‘Holy Grail’ of the ‘climate change religion,’ the Endangerment Finding is now eliminated. The Trump EPA is strictly following the letter of the law, returning commonsense to policy, delivering consumer choice to Americans and advancing the American Dream. As EPA Administrator, I am proud to deliver the single largest deregulatory action in U.S. history on behalf of American taxpayers and consumers. As an added bonus, the off-cycle credit for the almost universally despised start-stop feature on vehicles has been removed.”

• PREVIOUSLY: Trump’s EPA Cancels $20 Billion in Climate Funding: What It Means for Clean Energy 

U.S. Emissions Trends in 2025: Mixed Signals

At a climate crossroads, the United States saw a rebound in greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 after years of overall decline. According to estimates from the Rhodium Group, total U.S. emissions rose about 2.4% in 2025, reaching roughly 5.9 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent—139 million tons higher than in 2024. This uptick ended a two‑year downward trend that had been driven by cleaner energy and transportation shifts.

Several factors pushed emissions higher: colder winter weather increased demand for heating; rising electricity demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining boosted fossil fuel use; and higher natural gas prices led utilities to burn more coal. The power sector alone saw a 3.8% rise in emissions, while buildings’ emissions jumped 6.8%. Transportation emissions, the largest U.S. source, remained largely flat, increasing only modestly due to continued adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles.

Despite the 2025 increase, total emissions are still below pre‑pandemic levels and well under 2005 baselines—roughly 18% below 2005 levels—showing that long‑term trends toward decarbonization have not entirely reversed yet.

Preliminary sector data from Climate TRACE also indicates that U.S. emissions continued rising throughout 2025, adding more than 71 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent through the first three quarters of the year.

The EV Market in 2025: Growth and Slowdowns

In contrast to emissions trends, the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market continued to grow in 2025, though the pace and dynamics evolved. EVs made notable gains in sales and market share, reflecting both consumer demand and industry transitions.

In the first quarter of 2025, nearly 300,000 battery‑electric vehicles were newly registered, marking over a 10% year‑over‑year increase. EVs accounted for about 7.5% of all new car registrations during that period.

By the third quarter, sales surged again. Cox Automotive reported that EV sales jumped nearly 30% year‑over‑year, pushing EV market share to a record 10.5% of total vehicle sales in Q3 2025—a milestone reflecting strong consumer uptake in several segments.

Even so, EV adoption remains far from dominating the U.S. market. Estimates show that electric vehicles comprised around 8–10% of total U.S. new car sales in 2025, with internal‑combustion engine vehicles still accounting for the large majority of the fleet.

Tesla remained the largest EV brand in the U.S. in 2025, holding about 46% market share, though this marked a slight decline from previous years. Rivals like Chevrolet and Hyundai grew their shares, reflecting broader model availability and shifting consumer preferences.

Market analysts also project that by 2025, the U.S. EV market’s size, sales, and technology focus will continue expanding—with battery‑electric vehicles expected to dominate EV segments. The broader EV market size had substantial growth in 2025, with further expansion expected toward the end of the decade.

Balancing Regulation, Consumer Choice, and Emissions Goals

EPA officials say that removing federal GHG standards and related compliance credits will lower vehicle costs by about $2,400 per car. This will ease financial pressure on families and businesses and give buyers more choice. The agency calls it a step toward restoring the American Dream, making transportation more affordable without high regulatory costs.

Supporters argue the rollback removes artificial mandates, letting automakers and consumers focus on market-driven solutions. The EPA also ended “off-cycle” credits, which allowed carmakers to meet emission targets with minor technology changes. Critics called these credits gimmicks with little real environmental benefit.

Litigation and Future Policy

Environmental groups, scientists, and several states sharply criticized the move. They warn that it weakens climate action, public health protections, and emission reductions. Many fear that removing these rules while emissions are rising could set back U.S. climate goals.

Legal challenges are expected, with lawsuits likely to block or reverse the repeal. As federal rules change, state policies, corporate commitments, and Congress may play a larger role. Some states have already set carbon standards and EV incentives, creating a patchwork of climate policies across the country.

In conclusion, the 2026 repeal of the GHG Endangerment Finding marks a major shift in U.S. climate policy. With emissions rising and clean technology markets evolving, the country faces tough choices about balancing economic growth, innovation, and climate risk. The coming years will be shaped by lawsuits, state leadership, private investments, and the global move toward low-carbon economies.

• INTERESTING READ: Princeton Study Shows How Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” Derails U.S. Climate Goals 

The post Trump EPA’s Largest Climate Deregulation: What the 2009 “Endangerment Finding” Repeal Means for U.S. Emissions and the EV Market appeared first on Carbon Credits.