Published

1 year ago

December 15, 2023

Alice Rush

You’ve seen the headlines that Cop28 in Dubai has resulted in an unprecedented call to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’. So why were celebrations from developing countries and civil society so muted?

Countries on the front lines of the climate crisis fear that they are still being left to carry the costs, and sink beneath the waves. This global deal has to work for everyone, or it won’t work for any of us.

Here are ten takeaways.

1. No, this outcome is not enough to avert runaway climate change

Rather than a being a detailed plan to save the planet, the deal is a badly-drawn sketch on the back of an envelope.

It only ‘calls for’ a transition away from fossil fuels, rather than deciding on a full phase out. It makes no requirement of the world’s biggest polluters to act any faster than the lower income countries who have done little to cause climate change.

It doesn’t put in place any finance to deliver any of its goals. And it leans on debunked technologies that the fossil fuel industry use to delay their phase out.

This means that the package does not have a whole lot of structural integrity and does not do much to push the biggest, or pull the smallest, in the right direction.

2. But it may accelerate the stranding of fossil fuel assets

You might have seen people celebrating the ‘signal’ that Cop28’s call to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ sends. What does that mean? Does it mean anything at all? Well, yes actually.

The outcome could indeed make waves in the distant boardrooms of banks, investors and asset managers.

For seven years, financial institutions have completely ignored the Paris Agreement’s goal of aligning their financial flows with low greenhouse gas emissions pathways, and have instead continued to provide trillions of dollars to the fossil companies fuelling the climate crisis.

But the call on countries to transition away from fossil fuels is more likely to hit investors’ bottom lines. Bank loans to coal, oil and gas developments in countries that undertake the transition might never be repaid.

Shares and investments in fossil resources that will never be exploited will lose their value. Financial actors are strange, stubborn and unpredictable pack animals. The sensible ones will be planning their fossil exit strategies right now, ahead of the stampede.

3. Appetite for climate action is not matched by willingness to fund it

There’s no such thing as a free climate target. Cop28 really showed that while the world’s appetite for climate action has moved significantly forward, its willingness to cover the costs lags behind.

The wealthiest countries refused to offer any new finance to help lower income counties to leapfrog the fossil fuel era.

Many developing countries – those already being pushed into debt by the spiralling cost of climate disasters – will now be forced to make impossible choices between economic security and climate action.

If rich countries had been willing to put real finance and fair timelines on the table, the outcome could have been much stronger.

Finding ways forward on climate finance, and how we can cover the costs for the world we want to build together, must now be part of every climate conversation.

4. Saudi Arabia was willing to move (a bit). The US was not

With Cop28 being held in the UAE, there has been plenty of discussion about the role of the Gulf States, and the fossil fuel industry’s influence on the talks.

Saudi Arabia emerged as the country holding out most strongly against language to phase out fossil fuels.

But in fact, according to sources in the negotiating rooms, the US was the country that refused point blank to allow any language on finance or fair timelines.

In the final hours of Cop28, the head of the UN Antonio Guterres and of UN climate change Simon Stiell, alluded to ‘arbitrary red lines’, ‘entrenched positions’, ‘blocking tactics’ and ‘landmines’. That gave us insights into how the big beasts were locking horns behind closed doors

Ultimately, the call to transition away from fossil fuels represented Saudi’s willingness to compromise, somewhat. But the lack of finance in the deal showed that the US walked away with most of what it wanted, and gave nothing in return.

5. Developing countries leave Dubai with little

Unfairness is getting more baked into climate talks with each passing year. In thrall to the powerful players, Cop28 barely registered the needs of the countries who have done so little to cause the climate crisis, yet who are suffering the worst impacts and bearing all the costs.

The Alliance of Small Island States criticised the final document as a ‘litany of loopholes’ and ‘an incremental advancement over business-as-usual, when what we really needed was an exponential step change in our actions and support’.

Finance and fairness are key to ensuring the whole world can get on board with the transition to a fossil-free future. But with developing countries feeling demoted to bystanders in their own negotiations, these essential components are nowhere to be found.

6. False solutions get a foot in the door

Most people who have done the maths understand that carbon markets, and technologies like carbon capture and storage, simply can’t solve the climate crisis.

But these dangerous distractions provide a lifeline to the fossil industry, who are desperate to repeat the disproven claim that it’s fine carry on burning their products as long as unicorns, sorry I mean ‘new technologies’, take emissions out the air afterwards.

Cop28’s text leaning on these debunked approaches proved a triumph of lobbying over science. Meanwhile, technical negotiations trying to develop rules to govern carbon markets collapsed, with weak drafts deemed dangerous and unfixable.

Efforts to regulate nonsensical concepts will pick up again next year

7. Adaptation is unfunded

Climate change is bringing erratic rainfall patterns, warming oceans, floods, droughts and stronger cyclones to developing countries.

It is causing crop failures, destroying homes and drying up water sources. Governments are desperate to scale up adaptation to help communities strengthen their resilience to these impacts.

But the money that should be coming from the rich countries that are causing the climate crisis, is not forthcoming. Rich counties deleted any language reassuring countries that they will get the support they need.

8. Loss and damage fund finally agreed

There was some good news on the first day of Cop, two long weeks ago. Technical negotiations that took place throughout 2023 put forward an imperfect but important proposal for a loss and damage fund.

Unusually, this proposal was agreed in the opening plenary, and some minor funding announcements began to trickle in. Nothing like what is needed, but a start.

For the first time ever we have a pot that can help countries to rebuild and recover in the aftermath of climate disasters.

We now need to see much more finance, and for the World Bank that was controversially agreed as host, to fix its ways of working so that it can deliver funds directly to the communities in need.

9. Thank civil society for the focus on fossil fuels

We have civil society to thank for the focus and immense pressure on fossil fuels at Cop28. Thousands of organisations strategically echoed the call together for a fossil fuel phase out through their lobbying, networking, stunts and media work, until this became the one big demand that everyone came to expect from Cop.

Although we didn’t get the language we needed, the call to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ would not have happened without civil society.

10.Finance and fairness will be the goals at Cop29

Ultimately, the Cop28 outcome is deeply unfair, putting an equal burden on rich and lower income countries, requiring no additional action or finance from those that have caused the climate crisis even as the global south bears the spiralling costs of a warming planet.

Cop29 in Azerbaijan is set to agree a new global target on climate finance. Already we know that rich counties want to avoid doing their fair share.

Instead of actually providing grants, they’ll try to claim that loans should count as climate finance, that their own corporations’ activities should count as climate finance, and that their purchasing of carbon offsets should also count.

All of that will not only undercut real finance outcomes, but will deepen rich countries’ neo-colonial grip on the global south, exploiting and exporting yet more profit, under a climate mask.

But if we – all of us – are to have a chance of a safe future, we need the richest countries to move beyond narrowly defined set of self-interests at climate talks, and provide the real finance that can put us on a path for real cooperation and global climate action.

There is much to do to change the terrain of what is possible. But we need to work together to get the public and the politicians on board with the idea that if we want to save our planet from self-destruction, we may actually need to cover the costs.

Teresa Anderson is Action Aid’s global lead on climate justice

The post We have to fix unfairness: Ten takeaways from Cop28 appeared first on Climate Home News.

We have to fix unfairness: Ten takeaways from Cop28

Climate Change

Electricity demand surges, expanding both renewables and fossil fuels in 2024

Published

12 hours ago

March 24, 2025

Alice Rush

Despite record additions, clean energy sources could not fully meet a surge in electricity demand in 2024, driven mainly by the effects of rising temperatures, an annual review by the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed on Monday.

Renewables and nuclear energy provided four-fifths of the rise in electricity generation, which increased by 4% last year – marking “a significant acceleration” from the average annual growth seen in the last 15 years, the IEA said. The rest of the growth was covered by coal – still the largest source in the total global electricity mix – and by an expanding supply of fossil gas power.

Record temperatures push up power demand

Soaring use of cooling technologies like air conditioning in response to extreme heat was a key factor in the growing appetite for electricity, especially in China and India, which are heavy users of coal power, the IEA said.

Last year was the hottest on record and the global average temperature for 2024 exceeded the Paris Agreement benchmark of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.

It’s time for shipping to launch first global tax on a polluting sector

Growing electricity consumption by industry, the rollout of electric vehicles and the expansion of data centres also drove power demand, the Paris-based watchdog said.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said in a briefing on Monday that “even though oil and gas will remain essential energy carriers, we hear the footsteps of the age of electricity coming”.

He also noted that demand for all major fuels and energy technologies rose in 2024 as a result of rapidly growing electricity use.

World uses more coal, gas and renewables

Power generation from solar panels and wind turbines increased at a record pace thanks to a rapid rate of new installations, while nuclear power output was boosted by new projects and the restarting of reactors in France and Japan, the report noted.

But electricity generation from fossil gas and coal kept growing and, overall, fossil fuels still represented 60% of the global electricity mix last year.

While almost all regions saw an acceleration in electricity consumption, China and Southeast Asia saw the fastest increases in 2024, according to the IEA report.

After a decline in 2023, advanced economies led by the United States saw a return to growth in electricity consumption driven by strong demand for cooling, growth in the data-centre sector and a pickup in industrial production.

China continued to lead global expansion of renewables, making up almost two-thirds of all
renewable capacity connected to the grid in 2024. The United States, India and Brazil also saw record levels of solar photovoltaic roll-outs last year.

But intense heatwaves pushed coal and gas use higher in both China and India, while the United States and Eurasia also saw strong increases in gas demand for electricity, the IEA report noted.

Energy-related emissions still rising

Rising gas and coal use fuelled a 0.8% increase in global carbon dioxide emissions generated by the energy sector in 2024, the IEA said – but trends varied widely across regions.

While energy-related emissions dipped in advanced economies, whose growth has become less polluting, the decline was outweighed by marked increases in emerging economies – especially India – and the international aviation sector.

Clean hydrogen hype fades as high costs dampen demand

Speaking to journalists, Laura Cozzi, the IEA’s director of sustainability, noted that planet-heating emissions could have been exponentially higher without the rapid adoption of clean technologies – a development that is keeping 2.6 gigatonnes of CO2 out of the atmosphere.

“Those are fossil fuels that are being displaced,” she said, adding that the transition is moving “very fast” in the electricity sector.

The post Electricity demand surges, expanding both renewables and fossil fuels in 2024 appeared first on Climate Home News.

Electricity demand surges, expanding renewables and fossil fuels in 2024

Climate Change

It’s time for shipping to launch first global tax on a polluting sector

Published

18 hours ago

March 24, 2025

Alice Rush

Ambassador Ali Mohamed is Kenya’s Special Envoy for Climate Change.

Kenya is a frontline casualty of the climate crisis. Escalating temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and prolonged droughts are slashing food production, depleting water resources, and destabilising our economy. Our coastal ecosystems, vital to the “blue economy”, are besieged by rising sea levels, coral bleaching, and accelerating erosion.

These are not abstract threats; they are dismantling the livelihoods of millions of Kenyans who depend on agriculture and marine resources. Yet Kenya’s plight is not self-inflicted. Industrialised nations, with their outsized historical emissions, bear primary responsibility for this crisis. Under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, those who fuelled climate change must lead in funding solutions.

A proposed carbon levy on the shipping industry offers a transformative opportunity, one Kenya urgently supports, to deliver climate finance where it’s most needed while decarbonizing a critical global sector.

Global tax on shipping emissions faces choppy waters despite growing support

The shipping industry, a linchpin of global trade, stands poised to pioneer a new era of climate finance. At the UN International Maritime Organisation (IMO), governments are nearing agreement on a carbon levy on shipping emissions, with a decision slated for April 2025 at the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) 83 summit in London.

If enacted, this would be the first universal tax on an international polluting sector, a precedent-setting move. The World Bank estimates this levy could raise $60 billion annually, channeling vital funds into climate adaptation and mitigation for vulnerable nations like Kenya.

Kenya endorses this initiative unequivocally. It aligns with our national commitment to cut emissions and advance sustainable development, and it amplifies our role as co-chair of the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force, which champions levies on under-taxed, high-emission sectors.

Africa is not merely a bystander in this effort. From scaling renewable energy to modernising port infrastructure, we are active architects of a decarbonized maritime future. The levy promises not just revenue, but a framework for equitable progress, if designed with precision.

3% of global emissions

But why target shipping, some might ask? Well, for starters, shipping accounts for 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to Japan or Germany, the sixth-largest emitter worldwide. Unchecked, this figure will climb, intensifying climate pressures on coastal nations.

Decarbonising shipping isn’t optional; it’s a strategic imperative for a sustainable global trade system. Yet, the transition must not deepen existing inequities. African economies, heavily reliant on maritime trade, cannot afford levies that inflate export costs and widen global market disparities. Safeguards – such as reinvesting levy proceeds into affordable green technologies – are essential to level the playing field.

Investments in zero-emission vessels, renewable fuels, and resilient port infrastructure can ensure developing nations thrive in a low-carbon economy. A well-crafted levy would hasten this shift while funneling revenue to communities hardest hit by climate change. Kenya’s coastal populations, reeling from eroded shorelines and depleted fisheries, exemplify the stakes.

Direct funding for the Global South

Support for the levy is surging. Over 60 countries, commanding two-thirds of the global fleet, back the proposal, an encouraging signal ahead of MEPC 83. The IMO’s 176 member states already agree a carbon price is critical to hit net-zero emissions by 2050. But ambition matters.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that a levy of between $150 and $300 per tonne of emissions would both accelerate shipping’s energy transition and generate substantial climate finance. Anything less risks stalling progress.

A strong carbon tax on shipping can give hope to climate-vulnerable communities

Equity is equally critical. Funds must flow directly and predictably to developing nations, bypassing the bureaucratic quagmires that have long throttled Global South access to climate finance. Revenues should prioritise adaptation and resilience – especially for Africa, where sea-level rise and extreme weather already wreak havoc. Landlocked states, too, deserve support for broader climate projects, ensuring the levy’s benefits transcend the maritime sector. Without these guardrails, the mechanism risks perpetuating rather than dismantling historical injustices.

With just a short time until the IMO summit, member states must commit to bold, constructive dialogue. The world has a rare shot at a levy that’s fair, potent, and capable of delivering tangible climate finance. For Kenya, it’s a lifeline to shield our people and ecosystems from a crisis we did little to create. For the globe, it’s a chance to pivot toward sustainability while holding polluters accountable.

The post It’s time for shipping to launch first global tax on a polluting sector appeared first on Climate Home News.

It’s time for shipping to launch first global tax on a polluting sector

Climate Change

DeBriefed 21 March 2025: Germany’s climate win; Conservatives’ net-zero row-back; Key messages from major UK climate conference

Published

3 days ago

March 22, 2025

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Germany’s €100bn climate funding

BILLIONS IN FUNDING: Germany’s parliament on Tuesday voted to create a €500bn defence and infrastructure fund and relax “constitutionally-protected debt rules”, the Guardian reported, with “the last-minute backing of the Greens” in return for “guarantees that €100bn of the funds destined for infrastructure would be allocated for climate and economic transformation investments”. The deal came following “clumsy” initial negotiations from Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, Bloomberg said. It reported that the Greens “finally came around” after Merz’s negotiators “conceded to their key demands”, which also included adding Germany’s 2045 climate-neutrality target into the constitution.

TAKING CLIMATE ‘SERIOUSLY’: The Greens said in a statement on social media that the agreement “finally takes the challenges of the future seriously”, according to the New York Times. Paula Piechotta, a member of the Greens in the German Bundestag, told the German newspaper Tagesspiegel that the deal was a “great success for democracy in our country, for sustainability and intergenerational justice”. The newspaper added that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left party, “unsurprisingly”, criticised the agreement.

UK opposition breaks cross-party climate consensus

BREAKING AWAY: In a speech, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the UK opposition Conservative party, said it was “impossible” for the UK to meet its net-zero target by 2050, marking a “sharp break from years of political consensus”, BBC News reported. She did not offer an alternative target for the goal, the broadcaster said, quoting her telling reporters that if the Conservatives “do find a target is necessary, then yes we will have one”. Badenoch “failed to cite any evidence in support” of her arguments, according to a factcheck published by Carbon Brief, which concluded that much of the existing evidence “contradicts” her claims.

TORY BACKLASH: In response, Conservative former prime minister Theresa May, who was responsible for passing the 2050 target into law, warned the move “will hurt future generations and cost Britons”, the Times reported. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) also criticised the speech, warning that “now is not the time to step back from the opportunities of the green economy”, according to the i newspaper. In the Daily Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said Badenoch’s “rant comes close to political tragedy”.

Around the world

CARNEY CUTS: New Canadian prime minister Mark Carney removed the country’s “consumer carbon tax”, CBC News reported, adding that the policy had been a “potent point of attack” for his political opponents.
GREENPEACE BILL: Greenpeace has been ordered to pay $660m in damages over its protests against the Dakota Access pipeline in 2016, which could “bankrupt its US operations” if upheld, the Financial Times said.
UK-CHINA FORUM: The UK and China agreed to establish an “annual climate dialogue”, with the first meeting to be held in London later this year, the Times reported.
CHEQUES AND BALANCES: A US judge has “temporarily barred” attempts by the Trump administration to recoup at least $14bn in “grants issued by the Biden administration for climate and clean-energy projects”, the Washington Post said.
EXTREME HEAT: “Severe heatwave conditions” have begun affecting several areas across India “unusually early in the season”, the Hindustan Times reported.
SOUTH AFRICAN SUPPORT: The EU will fill a “$1bn hole” in South African’s “just energy transition partnership” left by the US, the Financial Times reported. The US is also “stalling” $2.6bn of climate finance for South Africa, Bloomberg said.

152

The number of “unprecedented” extreme weather events that occurred in 2024, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Climate 2024 report. Heatwaves were the most common type of unprecedented events – defined as events “worse than any ever recorded in the region” – followed by “rain or wet spells” and floods.

Latest climate research

New research in Climate and Development explored how environmental justice featured in the climate action plans of rust-belt cities in the US, finding that few “provided enough details” to determine if it was a priority.
A new Science Advances study identified “increasing storminess” in the south-western Caribbean, which was attributed to “industrial-age warming”.
Marine heatwaves are now 5.1 times more frequent and 4.7 times more intense since records began, new research in Communications Earth & Environment found.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

The UK’s high electricity prices are primarily driven by gas prices, according to an analysis published by Carbon Brief, with the UK typically seeing gas set electricity prices 98% of the time – compared to an average in the EU of 40%.

Spotlight

Chatham House talks climate and resilience

Carbon Brief outlines key takeaways from Chatham House’s climate and energy summit.

Chatham House, the UK’s leading international affairs thinktank, held its annual summit on climate and energy on 18-19 March. This year’s theme was: “Securing a resilient future.”

Carbon Brief attended the conference, where speakers including COP30 CEO Ana Toni, UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte and Moroccan minister for energy transition and sustainable development Leila Benali shared their thoughts on encouraging and enacting climate action.

Climate backlash

A sense of urgency permeated discussions at the summit, underpinned by concerns over growing anti-climate narratives.

Toni argued climate scepticism proves climate action is on the right track.

She said: “First people ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you – and this is where we are – then we win.”

COP30 CEO Ana Toni and UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte at Chatham House. Credit: Anika Patel, Carbon Brief

Other speakers said that increasing support for climate action by building new norms and creating overlapping interests could also be effective strategies.

Former US climate envoy Todd Stern pointed to increasing adoption of electric vehicles, while ClientEarth CEO Laura Clarke raised the example of community-owned renewable power.

Fretting over finance

Clean Earth Gambia founder Fatou Jeng warned that climate finance, as ever likely to be an important issue at COP30, has “not progressed much”.

“Blended finance” – using public money to leverage private funds – was heavily criticised in several panels. Ben Parsons, a partner at consultancy firm Oaklin, noted that only 72 such deals were agreed in 2024.

Speakers agreed that innovative mechanisms to derisk climate finance were needed, with Morocco’s Benali critiquing “exclusive” and inflexible private financing options.

Ndongo Samba Sylla, head of research and policy at International Development Economics Associates, argued that using local currencies would significantly boost climate finance.

Resilience through renewables

A key benefit of the UK’s “climate leadership”, Kyte argued, is that the energy transition will “make British people more secure”.

Parsons said the argument – recently deployed by Conservative leader Badenoch – that the energy transition replaced reliance on Russian fossil fuels with reliance on Chinese technology was incorrect.

“Fossil fuels are fuel – they require constant replenishment. Renewables are infrastructure,” he said, adding that arguably the UK should be accelerating its deployment of clean-energy technology.

On cybersecurity challenges in renewable power systems, Alex Schoch, vice president and group director of flexibility and electrification at Octopus Energy, argued that the key issue is how renewable energy “hardware” is managed, rather than where it is sourced from.

Parsons agreed, noting that the UK’s current power system has “plenty of cybersecurity vulnerabilities in it today”.

He said: “We have to make sure we’re putting [cybersecurity strategies] in place…But I don’t think that goes hand in hand with thinking we should avoid buying renewables from certain parts of the world.”

In a session on energy security in war-time Ukraine, held under the Chatham House rule, participants noted that the country was a case study for the importance of energy security.

Speakers said that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, attacks on thermal power plants have seen growing use of low-carbon energy – particularly distributed solar.

Watch, read, listen

ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: The Columbia Energy Exchange podcast explored how the new Trump government underpinned discussions at the energy industry event CERAWeek.

‘CONFLICT BLINDSPOT’: A new report by ODI found that “less than 10% of international climate finance” in 2022 went to fragile and conflict-affected countries.

METHANE INACTION: Leading supermarkets in the global north are “failing to address the methane pollution in their supply chains”, according to a study covered by Desmog.

Coming up

24-26 March: 16th Petersberg Climate Dialogue, Berlin, Germany
24-26 March: IPCC lead author meeting for methodology report on inventories for short-lived climate forcers, Bilbao, Spain
24-28 March: 20th session of the UN FAO commission on genetic resources for food and agriculture, Rome, Italy
25 – 28 March:First G20 climate and environment sustainability working group meeting, online

Pick of the jobs

ClientEarth, lawyer or legal consultant, energy systems, Asia | Salary: 455m-585m Indonesian rupiah. Location: Jakarta
European External Action Service, policy officer for green diplomacy | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels
Bloomberg, climate reporter | Salary: Unknown. Location: Hong Kong
The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, project manager | Salary: £42,679-£51,000. Location: London