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Vestas’ Reality Check: Will States Heed “This is Not a Wind Farm”?
We discuss the new document from Vestas titled “This is Not a Wind Farm”, which criticizes the U.S. approach to offshore wind development and proposes solutions. Allen, Joel and Phil analyze Vestas’ suggestions and debate whether states will implement any of the proposed changes.
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Allen Hall: Welcome to the special edition of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall. I’m here with Joel Saxum and Phil Totaro, and we are discussing the new document from Vestas called This is Not a Wind Farm. And if you’ve gone to Vestas website and looked at the U. S. offshore wind tab, you can find this document.
And you may want to follow along during this podcast because we want to dive into the details here. And remember that Vestas released this document during IPF. Basically the offshore wind energy symposium conference that happens in the United States this year down in New Orleans. And we felt like this document summarized some of the things that we have been feeling and seeing, but this is as proposed solutions.
Now we may not agree on all those proposed solutions as we’re going to discuss. But, at least they’re putting out, they’re putting their stake in the ground. They’re saying these are the things that need to be done to move the U. S. into offshore wind quickly. Let me give a little bit of background here, and I’ll list the items that Vestas has a problem with, or where the issues are.
The key problem areas are, and remember that there’s almost up to 50 gigawatts of offshore leases that are going to be proposed in the next couple of years. So in, from Vestas point of view, there’s a lot of real estate for, and for turbines to be put into the water. So this is the perfect time to get these US projects moving.
Now they list four to five. I broke them into five. Problem areas, and I want to go through the real quickly here. Number one, offshore bidders proposing projects are based on immature technology. So what Vestas is saying is that the turbines that are still on paper are being proposed for projects. Two there’s a lack of focus on the supply chain readiness to ensure the timely project delivery.
And generally what Vestas is talking about here is that if they choose a 20 megawatt turbine, all the supply chain has to be able to deliver a 20 megawatt turbine versus a 15 megawatt turbine in their case. State and local content mandates are leading to recent project cancellations along the East Coast.
Four, long lead times between offtake awards and project execution. Is leading to speculative bidding behavior, which increases cost uncertainty in the supply chain. And number five, as I’ve outlined it, there’s limited or no indexation adjustments within PPA. So once you lock in a PPA, you’re stuck with it forever, regardless of interest rates, so there’s no interest rate adjustment if interest rates goes up or down for that matter now.
All right, guys. So here we go. This is where I think it’s going to get a little contentious. There are four Vestas solutions here. Number one, prioritize the award of off take contracts to bidders that have selected turbine technology that is mature, tested, and commercially available to ensure on time project delivery and industry scalability.
Now, Phil, this is oriented towards turbines that do not have type certification yet. I assume we would have been talking about the GE 18 megawatt, which does not have type certification because they’re not going to build it. What are the turbines as Vestas implying shouldn’t be considered in these offshore contracts?
Philip Totaro: Turbines that already weren’t going to be considered, predominantly anything from China or whatever else, the Siemens, 14 platforms are all either already type certified or getting type certified, and so is the GE 15 and a half megawatt platform already or in process for type certification, so look at the end of the day what Vestas has put out is their little wishlist here of the way they want the world to work.
And it’s lovely and everything, but the reality is it’s a little bit self serving on their part. Some of the things that they’re suggesting would be helpful in general to the industry, but most of it’s just, Hey, if you did things our way, then we’d be winning a lot more business.
And. Sure. That’s true. Vestas. Thanks.
Joel Saxum: I think that the, when you talk about the, machines that aren’t ready of course it goes GE 18 megawatts. So now, if I think about that in my head, we’re looking forward 24, 28, I think the plan that the that Boehm put out at IPF is auctions all the way.
They planned out auctions all the way through 20, 28, 20, 2030, even. So we’re talking about for the next six years, right? Now the next six years, of course, there’s going to be someone at maybe even Vestas that goes, Hey, we’re going to make this, or, GE or whoever, we’re gonna make that, we’re gonna make this.
What they’re saying here in my thought process is, Let’s, those are no longer cool for bidding. Maybe there’s, you could put a change order in, if that, type of turbine is readily available, commercially available, mature at the time you build your wind farm, but you shouldn’t be able to bid on the idea that something else is going to be in place that works for it.
I agree with Vestas on this one.
Philip Totaro: Yes and no. See, here’s the thing, when they do one of these tenders in Europe, they bid an envelope. They say, we’re going to, we’re going to do something up to a 20 megawatt wind turbine. They don’t specify what the turbine is. I, and I, that’s why I don’t, Recall offhand, particularly in New York, if they were mandating a specific turbine be selected for the project permitting the OREC all the other submittals, I don’t know if they were mandating that a specific turbine model be specified as the preferred vendor, even if they didn’t have an agreement in place yet.
That’s one thing that potentially led to some of these consternations between NYSERDA as a procurement agent, on behalf of utilities and others and the developers and the rest of the supply chain. But again, look the market’s the market.
And the reality is a developer is going to submit a proposal with whatever They’re going to submit a proposal with for financial or other reasons that they have. And at the end of the day, it should be down to, if NYSERDA is the one issuing the OREC then it should be down to them to have sufficient technical expertise to be able to say, you know what, yeah, this is the best, tech, most technologically feasible, bid that, that we’ve received.
But that’s not even what’s happening. They’re getting bids from the projects that happen to be like the most mature in terms of shovel readiness in the, there’s not even enough projects that have been leased yet. You have a finite number of projects. You have a finite amount of offtake that you want to be able to procure.
Those are the, these are the projects. Like, why do we have to keep going back into this, all this rebidding and all this other malaise? When, okay, we know what the technology is today, or, a year and a half from now when they could, hope to be able to start, the offshore portion of the construction.
You want it, if you want to get projects done now, here’s what the state of technology is. Who’s serving as a technical advisor to NYSERDA? Nobody.
Joel Saxum: Yeah, that’s what I was going to hit on, Phil. I think you hit a big nail on the head there is, you’ve got all this, these things happen with Offshore Wind, NYSERDA, all these different agencies.
Who are their technical experts? Who are the people there that are reviewing the bids going, this is feasible for Offshore Wind or this isn’t? Because, And to my knowledge, I don’t know. I don’t want to point at that person on, maybe I’ll get some LinkedIn hate mail from someone at NYSERDA.
That’s me. You’re talking about, I don’t know. I don’t know who that person is, but as far as I know, do they have a team like an of Orsted type back office, people that know all kinds of things about offshore wind energy. I don’t think so because that doesn’t, that hasn’t existed in the United States.
So unless those people are Danish or British or Belgian
Philip Totaro: I’m sorry, Joel, that does exist in the United States. They just don’t use us. I’ve been doing offshore wind since frigging 2010, and I have not once been called by NYSERDA or any other state or local agency to provide expertise whatsoever.
Joel Saxum: So the resources are available and it’s not just me. There are others that have experience dating back to, decades and decades over in Europe, over in Asia. And we are not utilized. And that’s part of the other part of the problem is the people doing the procurement frankly don’t know what the hell they’re doing.
And I don’t care if I get hate mail I’m putting that out there. They just don’t know what they’re doing.
Allen Hall: Vesta said the same thing, Phil. Vesta said and solution number two is regularly evaluate supply chain infrastructure and interconnection readiness in state RFPs and prioritize the award of Octave contracts for projects that demonstrate maturity.
Okay, great. That sounds wonderful, but you were, who’s People or who are the people at the state level that have the skill sets to do that? So they can determine if the infrastructure is going to be there and interconnections are going to be there I don’t know how that works and I live in a state where this is happening right now I don’t get a great feeling like those people are World experts in this because you just don’t see them They’re hidden away somewhere And they don’t build confidence when you hear the governor or anybody of her staff talk about offshore wind It’s a very high level A lot of hand waving going on, which is what Vestas is complaining about right here.
Joel Saxum: Exactly this. You and I have met some people that are part of these organizations. And when you walk away from a handshake meeting with them, you go, this is the person doing this? You got to be kidding me.
Allen Hall: I always tell him to call Phil because Phil understands what this marketplace is and how to get these projects in the water and has other resources, which a state could use to speed up these projects.
But Vestas is calling out something we’ve talked about on the podcast a number of times. It’s going to be really hard for the U S to stand up an organization, particularly at a state level, to these, to do these hard work. Offshore projects because they don’t have the staff to do it know that they have a lot of people from Overseas that have done them in their staffs right now So it’s a lot of flying by the seat of their pants and vestas is calling them on it And this is probably the hardest thing for the state to swallow Because they’ve been trying to hide this in my opinion hide this that they are They don’t have the level of maturity in their staff to handle the climate projects as complicated as these are, and here we sit, right?
So Vestas is saying, everybody at the state, we need to get these supply chains figured out. You need to have a plan. And more than a plan you need to have a system in place, which I, Don’t think Vestas said specifically, they said a plan is not wind turbines in the water. You need a system and they haven’t set up the systems and they’ve had a couple years to do it, which is to Phil’s point.
They’ve had a couple years to get ready and now it feels like they’re being rushed because the systems are not in place to do these projects. Yeah, I think Vestas is right about that. All right. Number three, avoid awarding or heavily incentivizing bids with domestic manufacturing commitments in the state RFPs.
This is probably going to be the most contentious one that Vestas put forward because the New York and Massachusetts and the other states are heavily waiting, having local content, right? This is the GE factories that were supposed to happen and the tower factory that was supposed to happen in New York state that are not going to happen right now.
That’s a big problem for the states because they’ve sold the higher electricity rates essentially. Yeah. In terms of jobs, right? So yes, we may have slightly higher electricity rates, but we’re creating the energy ourselves and we’re employing your neighbors or maybe possibly you to get this work done.
So that’s an economic benefit to the state. It’s going to create thousands of jobs, bring in billions of investment. I guess in theory it could, but now Vestas is saying, forget it. It is a waste of time, and it is slowing down projects. Now Phil, you may have a little more insight into that. What specifically drove Vestas to come to this conclusion?
Philip Totaro: It’s, that’s a pretty easy answer because at the end of the day, there is no supply chain company in the world that likes local content regulations regardless of what they are, regardless of what country they’re in. They all want to have one factory producing all the components for, export to everywhere in the world.
And they don’t want to ever have to set up a factory in another country. It’s expensive, it’s time consuming, it’s this, it’s that. At the end of the day, Vestas cannot be relied upon for an objective view in regards to this particular point. Is local content good? It’s probably not quite as good as the politicians hope it is, but it’s probably not quite as horrible as supply chain companies make it out to be.
Let’s put it that way. At the end of the day, you the reason why politicians want and enact local content regulations is obviously they’re trying to do exactly what you just said, create jobs. And attract foreign direct investment to set up factories that employ those people, it provides them with tax revenue, and obviously the job creation is something that they can campaign on.
But at the end of the day. You, the, Vestas wouldn’t be complaining about this point if all the other points that are, we’re going to get to in this, the pace at which project development and approvals for projects occur, et cetera, et cetera, all these other things if that stuff was taken care of.
The factories would be getting built because there wouldn’t be this crazy uncertainty about whether or not the projects are going to happen. The, you can’t build a factory without a certain level of commitment in terms of order book. And this is what has led a lot of local content regulations around the world to fail, not just in wind energy, but you look at any industry where they’ve tried to do local content mandates.
This is what leads it to fail, is you mandate a local content regulation, but then you don’t guarantee an order book for the company that needs a, at least 150, units. Of wind turbines to be able to say, you know what, 400 units. If you can guarantee me that my company is going to be able to get that, then we’ll set up a, 250 million plus factory in, in New York or Massachusetts or wherever you want.
But you got to guarantee. That these guys are going to see a return. Otherwise you’re just asking them to plow hundreds of millions of dollars into factories, even billions of dollars into supply chain cultivation, because it’s not just one factory, it’s all the other ancillary supply chain companies that also have to, spool up or, shift over into offshore wind as a new market segment for them.
Nobody’s going to commit that kind of capital unless they know they’re going to get orders.
Joel Saxum: Yeah, so you’re making it more difficult for them to bring in, but telling them they have to do it, right? So you’re like, it’s chicken and egg, but someone’s a fox and the chickens, it’s, and it’s too wet for the chickens and they’re not ready.
And there’s, they’re on a boat sitting outside the harbor, outside the exclusive economic zone. There’s all these things going on, right? I don’t think I know what you’re talking about anymore, Joel, but keep going. But that’s the problem, Phil. Nobody does here. No, so the, a couple of things that are odd to me about this one is, or I’ll say from personal standpoint, I’ve been a part of projects.
I’ve worked on projects for a couple of years at different places in my career where you’ve had local content stipulations. And the supply chain or the work coming in is money guaranteed, right? It’s a big civil project, right? You’ve got fed money, state money, county money, whatever. So that’s there. So it’s going to happen.
But the people that were involved in the local content, the unions would get into it and the union guys tried to push people off. And then you had to hire so much and put so much money into the community and these kinds of things. And it didn’t, at the end of the day, it didn’t work out very well.
It was a lot of money spent on the one big project. There’s a lot of money spent in Chicago that. Was what was just wasted and it was just wasted to inefficiencies and it didn’t end up turning into anything at the end of the day when the job was over. Everybody just went back to their normal lives and didn’t do anything.
So those things don’t always work. The other thing I think is funny here is Vestas being a Danish company. Danish is a pseudo socialist state. I know that might raise some flags of people, but that’s what they are. And Vestas coming to America and saying, Hey, Stop with the pseudo socialism and be more capitalist is very interesting to me because it helps their bottom line because that’s what this is.
They’re saying like, hey, stop with the, guaranteeing people jobs and all these different things and just let’s go get it and let the market figure it out. That’s what they’re saying.
Allen Hall: Yeah. And what Vestas specifically said is if there’s a. Pipeline of projects eventually over time there’ll be local investment in the market will support new entries into that market.
The problem I have with this is that there’s, that’s just not going to happen unless you force the OEMs to do it because they’re just going to go to China or they’re going to go to Brazil or they’re going to go to India to source the parts. So if you’re talking about specific components that are going on to the wind turbine, rarely are they going to buy something that’s based in the States.
Maybe the tower, obviously because it has to be built somewhat nearby, maybe, but even now we’re bringing in towers from overseas, right? So if you cut them completely free of any U. S. product they will gladly go everywhere else in the world. It isn’t like they will slowly build up a U. S. infrastructure.
Look at onshore wind today. There’s not a huge in the United States. There’s not a huge onshore. Wind infrastructure being built here is being built in Mexico. It’s being built in Canada. It’s being built in China It’s being built in India.
Joel Saxum: So Let’s index it like you would a plan as the general mark or the as a capital market would accept it so let’s say today 30 percent must be or 20 percent must be local content right and 80 percent you can bring in just so we get some stuff moving and then Next year we go to 30 percent 40% by 2030, we’ve got to be at 80 percent or whatever that is but lay that out. So we don’t, so the time, because you’re, what you’re doing is yours.
We always talk about energy transition. I have this conversation with a lot of people and they say, electric vehicles, bad oil and gas. Good. We can’t just stop it today. No, it’s called a transition because that’s not how things are going to work. This is the same thing. You can’t expect a nascent market to immediately turn on overnight.
You have to let it be gradual. So why don’t we dictate some of this local content now and then gradually increase the local content in all of these contracts as we go forward.
Allen Hall: The IRS tax regulations were supposed to be helping this situation Phil?
Philip Totaro: And the thing is that these 45x manufacturing tax credits that were put in place for new component manufacturing to occur within the United States isn’t even apparently enough of an incentive.
Again, it goes back to order book. It’s the fact that you can get whatever 15, 20, 25, 30 percent almost tax credits on some of these things, it’s not even enough of an incentive to get, mostly European companies that are going to be the ones who come over here and establish factories for towers, foundations, transition pieces blades, nacelles.
Gearboxes, you name it. Because everything, in order to qualify for the 45X, it’s actually pretty stringent. You can’t just source stuff from India and assemble it here, or China, or wherever. You’ve actually got to build it here. So that’s gonna fundamentally change the way that a lot of companies operate, and it is gonna change the cost structure.
So the fact that they’re offering these tax incentives is good but that only allows companies to, to break even. Absent any more meaningful order book commitment beyond, three, four, five, six gigawatts, which is what they can commit to at this point. That’s what’s firm.
Joel Saxum: Yeah, especially when you’ve got to fill a factory, a brand new factory, with union workers that are making 15, 60 bucks an hour.
Allen Hall: Makes it hard. Okay, let’s get to number four. Solution number four. Because I think this is where everything revolves around itself. This is the chicken and the egg. Build indexation into PPAs or ORECs to enable benefit and cost sharing between awarded projects and rate payers and increase the resiliency of projects to withstand future uncertainties.
So this is Phil’s point. Unless there is an economic certainty to these projects, you’re going to Have a lot of projects that close shop up and have to restart over again, because they’re locking in the PPAs early, but we’re looking at a hot area environment, you’re not sure what’s going to happen 3, 4, 5 years down the line, it needs to be indexed.
And indexation would, as Phil has pointed out numerous times on the podcast, indexation would take time. The RICs down, not eliminate them, but at least reduce it so that you can plan out what the future may look like. And Phil, I want you to touch on this because Vestas is obviously pointing this out.
It seems so obvious, but none of the states have done it right now.
Philip Totaro: Yeah, so there’s a couple of things here. One, they’re right. None of the states have really taken that into consideration. They’re basically relying on the companies who are going to pull out and then re bid their projects to re bid at, an inflation adjusted OREC offer price, basically a PPA price that takes into account that adjustment for inflation.
And the problem is. I guess you could argue like the good news right now is that inflation is still somewhat high. There’s still some indications on GDP in the United States that, that seemed to point to, inflation being high and we’re just in this scenario where.
If you’re going to do a PPA right now, this is probably the best time to do it if you want a high PPA because it’s, you’re probably not going to be able to go much higher without the Fed having to do something about it. And the Fed’s kind of eyeballing stagflation at this point where, we basically stay at the price levels that we’re at and the inflation rates that we’re at, or sorry, the interest rates that we’re at right now.
For the foreseeable, because, that’s just how everything is playing out at the moment. So that’s one aspect of it. The other one is if you look outside renewable energy procurement, other fuel sources are, because they’re commoditized. Coal, natural gas, what have you, there’s an automatic inflation adjustment baked into those procurements because when you’re procuring something, power that’s being generated by coal or natural gas, if the cost of natural gas goes up, Which it does.
That’s, the utilities are having to price take whatever that is, and then sell it to you as a an eye is electricity consumers with, whatever margin they’re going to put on top of it. And so the more that increases, the. More frequently they have to necessarily raise rates and when the price of like coal or natural gas drops back down It’s just more margin for them that they don’t you know, it’s not like you ever get you know When’s the last time you had your electricity rates reduced?
It’s not impossible, but it’s extremely rare, isn’t it? So You know that’s really the scenario.
Joel Saxum: Phil, could you see a distant future and maybe a not so distant future, I don’t know, where we have a globally interconnected electricity grid, HVDC or something of the sort where electricity becomes commoditized to the point where it becomes unregulated and traded like natural gas and oil and gas.
Philip Totaro: Because nobody signs a PPA I’m just saying a price, how about a PPB, price per barrel, for the next 20 years that I’m going to get out of this well, that’s not a thing, because it’s, because you have to complete, you have to compete in the global marketplace, right?
Let, so let me answer your question though, no I don’t see a global, some countries already do have energy trading and market balancing between the two countries.
Or, obviously in, in a place like Europe, you could see that happening given the proximity and the fact that they’re already building or planning to build additional transmission capacity to be able to handle that sort of thing. I don’t ever see A distant future where there’s necessarily like a global electricity market like that, like you just described, but there, there is a shift towards wanting to, to push things in the direction of having more integrated.
There is a distant future, for instance, in the United States where I could see all the ISOs getting together and saying, we’ll allow energy trading between the ISOs. Which doesn’t happen today, of course, but I could see that happening at some point in the future. I could see, other countries like Japan where they have, their energy market split between kind of the north and the south, southern regions of that country.
I could see them figuring things out and normalizing everything at some point. Same goes for other countries, maybe Brazil too, where they have things separated state by state a little bit. Yeah, there’s there, there’s always ways to make things commercially better and more efficient.
I don’t think we’re quite there yet, but that is a scenario that could happen and facilitate a lot more of a fair market for everybody.
Joel Saxum: And that’s why I asked the question, right? Because at the end of the day, yes, we’re talking about if interest rates and financing and violent investment decision and technologies and all these different things.
But at the end of the day, all of these problems for offshore wind boil down to PPA price. And if we could find a way to agree on PPA prices that facilitate good news for developers and cool for the rate payers, which might not be the same then this, these problems start to eliminate themselves.
Allen Hall: So which states are going to make changes based upon this Vestas document?
Philip Totaro: Certainly not New York. Allen, let me read you a headline from a Danish newspaper. It’s it’s called Energy Watch. It says, Industry wishes have been accommodated in 40 billion euro tender conditions reveal. That’s in Denmark.
Do you ever in your friggin life think that the state of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, or anybody else is going to accommodate this? It’s it’s a wish list. This is a wish list from Vestas. However, what I will say is two things on this. Number one, yes, we can compliment Vestas for having the foresight to be able to put something like this together, put it out there, etc.
Fine. It is a wish list, and so the other comment is, it would have been better for them, especially having released it at this Oceanic Network event. Where is the engagement from ACP, the Oceanic Network, the other OEMs, to, you know what, let’s work together to put out a roadmap that everybody in the industry is behind, as opposed to just one company.
Let’s do something here. Because this one company putting out their wish list is never going to get anything done, engaging the industry trade associations and lobby groups that are supposed to be championing the industry. Maybe that’ll get something accomplished. I don’t know.
Usually doesn’t.
Allen Hall: But anyway, what technical knowledge is ACP? Bring to the table. What system knowledge is ACP bring to the table to help New York? None, right? They don’t have any, or at least I haven’t seen it, but it has to come from a committee. If it comes from a committee, you have the people on it, right?
Joel Saxum: If you’ve got a committee, that’s full of people from Orsted and Ekenor and Shell and whoever else is a developer. Then you can bring that committee forward.
Allen Hall: But you have to create the systems at the state level. You have to have people in seats knowing what their job is and an expectation of completing that task in a timely manner.
Joel Saxum: And you just don’t have that right now. What you have is a lot of, I wish, I want, it would be nice to have, written down on a piece of paper. Rather than action. Companies like Orsted have to take all the burden onto themselves and then eventually the OEM of the turbine have to take all this burden upon themselves.
And they’re saying, we’re not going to do it. If that has not become evident over the last six months, then the states are just not paying attention.
Philip Totaro: That, and this comes back to the inevitable disconnect that I have talked about on the show a couple of times where, okay, If the states don’t have the expertise, the industry, trade, and lobby groups don’t have the expertise Leverage the expertise.
That’s what I keep friggin saying. The expertise exists. Whether it’s my company, somebody else’s company that’s had experience in Europe, going back, more than a decade. Whether it’s, bring in the Europeans to advise. There are plenty of European based consultancies if that’s what it’s gonna take.
But at least utilize the friggin resources that we’ve got. And we can actually move things forward in a time efficient manner, because we’ll be able to tell you whether or not something passes the sniff test in about ten seconds.
Joel Saxum: Here’ll be a difference. Watch when offshore wind comes to the Gulf Coast.
It’ll be a completely different matter. It’s gonna get done like that, compared to what’s happening on the East Coast. Or even this one. If you want to get offshore wind done on the East Coast, Move it down to the Carolinas.
Allen Hall: You’re
Joel Saxum: better off.
Allen Hall: Yeah, you’re more likely to get them done sooner because there are systems in place to build things down there in Louisiana and Texas where there’s, hasn’t been in a long time in Massachusetts.
Joel Saxum: And the people, and the government agencies aren’t gonna, if you’re in the state of Texas and you wanted to connect some more energy resources, and somebody’s standing in your way, Greg Abbott will go to that person personally and tell them, Stop this. Let’s get this done. That’s how it works down here.
It’s the same thing in Louisiana. You want stuff done, you talk to the Louisiana, the parish mafia that you’re working out of and it’ll get done. But Vestas is seeing
Allen Hall: this, right? I think the key is, now, you shouldn’t see GE do this. Maybe GE is wondering how this is going to play out, and it seems Gamesis is so tied up in other problems that they’re going to, I’m sure, stay out of this one.
But do you feel like Vestas? Because they are now projecting themselves as the leader, we’ll get more bids that they will be involved in more projects because they are a systems company. They look at things quasi logically, that why wouldn’t you want to choose a Vestas over a Siemens?
Joel Saxum: I think there’s, I think if I’m an offshore wind developer right now, Vestas, to be honest with you, Vestas is the turbines I’m looking at, and here’s why.
Siemens has got its own problems right now. Whether it’s technical or financial or commercial, I don’t want to get into that mess. GE right now, just spinning off. They look to be on the rise, right? Everything looks to be, the GE thing has gone great, but I’m still looking at it going I might just for this first wind farm, I’m going to go with something that’s more.
That’s more safe. The safe one for me is Vestas right now.
Allen Hall: So Phil, what are our next steps here? What do you think happens next? Now that Vestas has made a little video, put this out on the street, what happens now? Do we see somebody act on it? Do you think ACP will act on it? Do you think Oceanic Network’s gonna act on it?
Or will it just wither away and be ignored? Because it’s
Philip Totaro: too logical. The latter, yes. Dore Doreen Harris, who’s the head of NYSERDA, is not gonna take any of this into consideration. She has, to her credit, at least, acknowledged that for Round 5, which they’ve just announced they’re gonna start the procurement there in New York, that she’s gonna be a little more flexible.
I don’t know what that means, but apparently we can expect them to be more flexible. There you go. That’s as much as we’re gonna get in the industry as far as what government’s willing to do to work together in a collaborative fashion with the people who are trying to bring billions, if not trillions of dollars in investment to their
Joel Saxum: state.
If you’re interested in furthering this conversation or any other conversation we have on the podcast, Booth 434 ACP Clean Power in Minneapolis. We will be there all next week. I think this is going to come out on Thursday and we’re all traveling over the weekend, right Allen? Yes. So if you’re interested in any of these topics, come and see us.
We’ll be on the show floor.
Allen Hall: Stay tuned to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast because we’re going to bring you the latest Investus news, offshore news, OEM news, so you know what’s happening out there on these projects that need to be put into the water and do need to be completed in a timely manner.
What will we be following yet? So stay tuned!
https://weatherguardwind.com/vestas-states-this-is-not-a-wind-farm/
Renewable Energy
Vestas Shares Jump 20%, UK Blocks Ming Yang Factory
Weather Guard Lightning Tech

Vestas Shares Jump 20%, UK Blocks Ming Yang Factory
Vestas doubles second quarter profit and adds €4.7 billion in market value overnight. Plus EnBW finishes He Dreiht after a V236 blade break, the UK blocks Ming Yang’s Scottish factory, and India rules turbines are movable goods.
The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast is brought to you by Weather Guard Lightning Tech, creators of the StrikeTape Ultra LPS retrofit. Subscribe to Uptime’s Substack newsletter. And check out Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” Youtube channel. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!
The Uptime Wind Energy podcast, brought to you by StrikeTape. Protecting thousands of wind turbines from lightning damage worldwide. Visit StrikeTape.com. And now, your hosts
Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall, and I’m here with Rosemary Barnes, Matthew Stead, and Yolanda Padron. And three out of the four of us will be in Melbourne Australia talking to a number of operators and interested parties about WOMA 2027. Matthew, where will we be the couple of days we’re in Melbourne?
Matthew Stead: So, um, first of all, we’ve got the Pullman, uh, East Melbourne, which is, uh, where the venue will be for, for 2027. Um, so that’ll be our home base. Um, we’ve got around about eight meetings planned already. So what we’re doing is we’re talking to the operators and a few other industry, um, players about [00:01:00] what we need to talk about, how we’re gonna move the industry forward in Australia.
Uh, so it’s gonna be jam-packed, but there’s a little bit of time left on the Friday afternoon if there’s any late-minute, um, people that wanna get in contact and catch up with us, um, for next Thursday, Friday, or actually Friday. Uh, so yeah, it’s gonna be a, a jam-packed time. I think we’re gonna be tired, too many coffees, and talking to all the key, all the key operators, uh, about what they wanna hear about and how we can move the, the industry forward.
Allen Hall: And if someone wants to put an input into the WOMA panel about what will be discussed at WOMA 2027, Matthew, how would they do that? How do they get ahold of you?
Matthew Stead: Well, we have a wonderful website, and that’s got all the details you could ever want. Um, you can also register on the website, so please register.
Otherwise, um, I’m sure we’re gonna be a sellout this year for sure. So woma2027.com.
Rosemary Barnes: I just wanna add that when people talk to [00:02:00] me about the event, they always say how they love that the topics are so relevant, and the reason why that they’re so relevant is because we make sure to go around to operators and find out what are the issues that they’re really dealing with.
So anybody that’s thinking of attending, even if you can’t, you know, meet us up, meet up with us in Melbourne, get in touch and tell us what are the, yeah, what are the topics that you’re struggling with that you’re not, um, you’re having trouble finding enough information, having trouble finding the people that can help you.
And y- yeah, like we take all of that information, and that’s how we come up with our agenda each year. And yeah, I mean, for us, that’s the, the main thing is that this has to be really relevant, up-to-date information for the industry, and we need your help to make sure it stays that way. I
Matthew Stead: mean, that’s what we’ve done the last two years, so this is– we’re just repeating the formula, um, listening to the operators and getting the good topics and the good speakers.
Allen Hall: Well, Vestas has had a good quarter. Uh, the, for the last couple of years, honestly, s- [00:03:00] Vestas has been really thin on margins. There was questions about it continuing on. Rising costs mostly, uh, supply chains, especially during COVID, were bad. Uh, and, uh, but for the most part, the shareholders stayed attached.
Well, that story is changing rapidly. The world’s largest turbine maker posted second quarter operating profits of $400- €46 million, more than double what the analysts had expected, and it’s raised its full-year margin guidance alongside half-year results for the first time in a decade. The shares climbed about 20% in Copenhagen, adding roughly €4.7 billion of market value in a single session.
Now, the chief executive, uh, Henrik Andersen, ha- put it plainly to, uh, uh, in a couple of news sources that something much bigger is happening and Vestas is gonna be the, the leader in wind. That’s how I read it, that everybody [00:04:00]at Vestas was super happy with the, the change in direction and things were moving up steadily.
But a 20% jump in a day is remarkable. You don’t see that in large industrial businesses like wind energy. Matthew, this has real implications on what happens next for Vestas because success like this usually means more orders.
Matthew Stead: Yeah, I wonder what’s going on under the hood there. Um, I mean, Vestas is a quality company, although, although can I just do a quick segue?
How many turbines were installed in Denmark in the last, uh, two years? Like last year and the year before?
Allen Hall: I don’t know. How many?
Matthew Stead: I believe it was eight turbines installed onshore in Denmark last year, and the year before it was 12. So, you know, maybe, maybe Vestas needs to focus on their own backyard a little bit as well.
Allen Hall: I’m not sure there’s a lot of opportunity there. Yeah, onshore.
Matthew Stead: How can you ever be full? I mean, there’s always, um, [00:05:00] uh, you know, um, you know, resiting or, um, you know, upgrades and-
Rosemary Barnes: You know what? Allen and I are probably gonna get some time in Jutland, uh, later this year, um, and that area and the old wind turbines there was actually the inspiration for my whole YouTube channel.
It just, ’cause there’s, you know, there’s turbines there from, the earliest one is, um, from the ’70s and still going. I think it’s one and a half megawatts, actually huge for, for that time. Um, and it was like community made, um, at Tvind. But anyway, I’m interested to revisit the site and have a look and see are these, you know, all these old turbines still there.
It’s only, like six years since I went through and did the experience but for the most part, they don’t seem to be yet pulling down the, the small old ones and putting up big ones. There’s a lot of, a lot of them are community owned. Um, and yeah, I mean, Danish people love wind turbines, but there’s only so many that you can have onshore.
Like, people are happy to live near them by, you know, the standards of people in other countries, but you don’t want [00:06:00] one in your literal backyard. I think that there is, there, there is a, a limit to how many more onshore wind turbines that you can get in that area and offshore expansion is the more likely way to go.
Um, and also I think it’s, it’s, it’s good to recognize that if you have a domestic only or a domestic first strategy, that will only get you so far and then you have to expand, and I think Denmark did that really well. I think Germany a little bit less. I think that Enercon were a bit surprised, um, by their strategy.
It, uh, they had a real hard time anyway when they had to transition away from mostly Germany to getting overseas. And obviously, like if you look at China, they have most of their installations are in China. They are trying so hard to get outside of China because it’s not, like even a market as big as China, it’s got decades to go before it will be full.
Um, you can still recognize that that’s not your, like long-term strategy for growth has to involve expansion, I think.
Allen Hall: I think Vestas, regardless of what happens in Denmark, is making a play for the United States. That seems to be [00:07:00] where a significant effort is happening at the moment and on offshore. Their– Vestas seems very excited about the offshore opportunities.
Of course, there’s a ton of wind turbines gonna be installed in the UK and, and all around Northern Europe. Offshore, the opportunities to buy turbines, there’s only a couple that you could get today. Uh, uh, the GE Vernova offerings I, I don’t think are gonna fit the mold, and I don’t know if GE’s even actively selling.
So their competitor realistically is Siemens Gamesa, which does seem like the smaller player at the minute versus Vestas, which is heavily pushing the V236 and will fill order books like crazy, I think, uh, just based upon the, the history they’ve had and everybody knowing who they are. So Also on the move in Australia, right?
Vestas is huge in Australia right now.
Rosemary Barnes: I think it’s really good that their, um, yeah, finances, uh, are [00:08:00] looking a bit better ’cause it’s been funny. Like, I tried early on in my wind career to invest in, you know, wind turbine manufacturers knowing that there would be immense growth, and I was right. There, there was immense growth.
Not that that was so hard to figure out that there would be, but it did not lead to any kind of, um, return on, on anything, you know. Like, that did not keep pace with the just general market. Um, so I, I stopped trying to, stopped trying to invest to that. But it has been really, really hard for the companies to, you know, raise money or y- you know, do any of the things that they need to do because they’ve always, like, they’re growing, growing, growing, but finances has been so tight that it has been a real constraint on the amount of engineering that they could do, and I really hope that Vestas are gonna take this opportunity that they’ve got compared to, you know, a lot of the other manufacturers.
Vestas do have really strong, um, innovation and, yeah, engineering capabilities for doing– you know, developing new technologies and improving them, and I really hope that they’re taking this opportunity to build that up. There are a lot [00:09:00] of very good engineers with a lot of experience in the industry in that area that are working in other fields at the moment because, you know, there’s been a lot of contraction in Denmark.
So I don’t know, it seems like a really good time to hire back some of that really in-depth knowledge and, yeah, get a- get ahead of, you know, some of the future quality problems. We’re going through such a hard time at the moment from the fast development that happened in the 20-teens when there wasn’t a whole lot of money around.
We’re dealing with quality problems now, so, you know, maybe we can get ahead and not have the next round of them if we can invest in just a lot more, uh, engineering capacity.
Allen Hall: When you have success like Vestas has, usually the upper level management and some of the executive team starts getting pilfered, that they’ll get offers to repeat that success at another company, and it sounds like that process has started already.
There’s a couple of executives that have recently departing or are in the midst of departing from Vestas. [00:10:00] I would see that continuing f- at least for the next six months, uh, because everybody wants to repeat that, right? If you can get a 20% increase in your valuation overnight, uh, I can, I can list a number of companies, regardless of industry, that would love to participate.
Even in a 5% increase, that would be remarkable. So, um, Vestas is gonna have a hard time holding onto this. That’s just the nature of the business where things are successful, people will wander. And Rosemary, I, I think they’re– And Yolanda In, in my book, Vestas should sort of s-stand down and just make quality products.
I’m not sure you sh-should tinker too much at the time being and just make the good stuff better. That seems like a way to really increase profits.
Yolanda Padron: Yeah, I mean, solving a lot of the issues that– And, and that’s not just a Vestas exclusive thing, right? All of these OEMs have some sort of issue that maybe– I know Rosie’s touched a lot on, on it, where [00:11:00] you build this version A and then version B solves one of the small little issues, but now it creates another little problem, and then you have version C, and then everything just kinda has its own niche little issue, um, that really expands over time.
So if they could solidify what they already have in, in a, in a model that, that would help them just even keep a lot of their customers, I think that’d be great, and it would help, certainly help them, um, not continuously, like, rotate around the customers, ’cause it almost feels like, at least in the States, right, you, you get GE to be really, really strong and have a huge market share, and then GE starts focusing more on gas turbines, so then they all go onto Vestas, and then they all go onto Ontara now.
Um, and then just, you know, just kind of everybody starts cycling through them because they just kind of want something that’s better quality than what they’re getting in the long haul.
Matthew Stead: Allen, you, you talked about you think there’s something big under the hood. I think you, you [00:12:00] thought that maybe Vestas was angling towards something or being quite bullish.
Do you think that they might take over GE Vernova?
Allen Hall: I don’t think they’re gonna grab Vernova, and I don’t think Vernova is for sale at the minute, but I wonder if Siemens Gamesa is, or Nordex. I mean, Nordex has done terrific the last couple of quarters and is making inroads in places that I didn’t think possible three, four years ago.
Uh, the European marketplace is be- becoming really unique in that sense that there’s a lot of money being put out. But is there a sole perfect solution for Europe? Not at the minute, ’cause you got two competitors there, and then China trying to, to work its way in. Will the Europeans come together and form something more united, even if it’s just a partnership, a loose partnership, versus letting China on the shores?
We’ll see. 64 of the largest machines that Vestas has builds are standing off the German coast, but one blade is missing a [00:13:00] piece. We’ll talk about that when we come back.
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Allen Hall: Well, Germany’s largest offshore wind farm is now fully installed, and EnBW confirmed this, uh, past week that all 64 of the Vestas V236 15-megawatt turbines are s- standing at the He Dreiht wind farm about 85 kilometers northwest of Borkum. Uh, 960 megawatts, [00:14:00] 2.4 billion euros invested. Man, these offshore projects are expensive to get installed.
Uh, so it’s power for roughly 1.1 million households, and there’s no state subsidy behind any of it. And so this is a little bit of a u- unique situation. Uh, th- well, the one footnote about the wind farm is they had a V236 blade break and fall into the North Sea, and they had fished it out and I think I passed along s- pictures that I saw online of, uh, one of the police boats pulling the shear web out of the water I don’t know what to think anymore about some of these offshore blade issues.
Obviously, Vestas is very conscientious about it and will be doing RCAs and engineering reviews and all the above to go identify what the problem is. But it does just lead to a little bit of a pause of do– what is going on for some of these offshore [00:15:00] wind blade installations or, or whatever’s causing these blades to break?
Do we have a good handle on it? Yolanda, is– are we following up on all the design details so that we can prevent these things in the future?
Yolanda Padron: I mean, I’d, I’d hope you’d be following up on the design, right? Like, and, um, but I think there is still a little bit of a disconnect from, from what we’ve seen, and again, not just Vestas exclusive, um, between the people who are designing and the people who are manufacturing, the people who are in operations, right?
So, uh- The, from what we’ve heard, uh, this could have potentially been a, um, partially because of a transportation issue, which is what happens a lot in onshore. It’s a lot more common than we would like it to be. Um, and so that even goes beyond what would go on in the design studio and what would go on in the manufacturing and what would [00:16:00] go on even just for the people that are running the site, right?
So, so some sort of, um, in between, uh, EPC error. Um, but yeah, I just think that, like in a lot of industries, there should be a lot more communication between all of these teams on the lower level, so that way a lot of these problems can, can be avoided.
Allen Hall: I’m wondering if it’s actually an issue on the, the testing side.
And, uh, the one question that just popped up, and we saw from the ORE Catapult, uh, survey that’s being conducted at the moment, and if you haven’t participated in that, you just visit ORE Catapult and answer some of the survey questions. But torsion on a blade, which is very difficult to test for, and it really isn’t tested for today, but does happen during the move and the transportation of these big offshore blades.
Is it one area that we need to do a little more work in or maybe spend some more time focusing on it to see what is happening as blades are [00:17:00]moved?
Rosemary Barnes: The thing about te- torsion is that it is much more significant as blades get longer. I can’t, I can’t remember the equation off the top of my head, which is, um, bothering me.
But I think it scales with, like, the fourth power or something of, of length. And so whilst it was always a bit of a problem, it’s much more of a problem as it gets, as blades get bigger. I mean, they’ve never, like, fully tested a blade, and there was always a lot of reliance on, hey, y- you know, like we’ve tested certain things that is possible to test in a test facility on the ground.
But they also rely on their decades of experience of how blades actually behave in the field. But, you know, remember, that’s a real lagging, lagging indicator because y- you know, their decades of experience is mostly with lots smaller blades. Now, blades are really different because they’re longer and different effects are, are taking over.
It’s not just, uh, torsion, but it’s also the laminates get much thicker, and then y- you know, you, you have issues with the way that they’re curing, [00:18:00] and there’s a lot more just space for, um, defects to be present in a really thick laminate All of those things add up. Oh, yeah, then add in addition, like new materials, carbon fiber is new, and then new ways of producing it, you know, pultrusions, um, all kinds of different materials like balsa’s being replaced with foams and, um, like, you know, 10 times that number of what sounds like a small innovation, but all of these things have the potential for damage and don’t have a really long track record in the field to be able to kind of calibrate.
We do need to remember that, like, when you do something new, things are gonna break, uh, sometimes, they’re gonna fail sometimes. If they don’t, then you’re definitely being too conservative, and your product is costing more than it should, and nobody wants more expensive wind energy, right?
Matthew Stead: Rosie, Rosie, I, I know you’re doing some, some excellent work on, um, industry studies around erosion and temperature and so forth.
Um, I just wanted to let a little secret out of the bag that, um, in the future there will also be some [00:19:00] other studies on torsion and blade twist and blade dynamics. So, um, just a few things are in, in train at the moment, which I can’t share, share, but, uh, watch this space around better understanding blade twist.
Allen Hall: The Hydride wind farm runs on European turbines, but the next one might not. Two governments with two very different answers on who gets to build Europe’s wind fleet.
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CIC NDT maps every critical defect, delivers actionable [00:20:00] reports, and provides support to get your blades back in service. So visit cicndt.com because catching blade problems early will save you millions
Well, two countries and two decisions, one question. In Scotland, the UK government blocked plans for the Chinese manufacturer Mingyang to build a turbine factory, uh, near Inverness on national security grounds. 1.5 billion pounds of investment, up to about 1,500 jobs. And First Minister John Swinney has asked the new prime minister to reconsider.
And the UK energy secretary minister called that request irresponsible. Meanwhile, up in Denmark, Vattenfall has just won two offshore wind farms and will not say whether it will buy European turbines. Danish suppliers are not taking that quietly. So [00:21:00] the Scotland question about the Mingyang factory is at least being discussed again with the new prime minister in the UK.
It does seem like there’s a lot to do and get the government formed and make all this stuff happen. But I don’t see a Burnham administration changing the outcome for Mingyang, but I could be wrong. At the, the same time, Vestas is pushing for a more Eurocentric focus and to really keep out the Chinese.
Uh, something has to give here pretty soon.
Matthew Stead: I actually think Mingyang should, um, set up a factory in Scotland. I, I mean, what’s wrong with that? I mean, uh, why is that a security issue?
Rosemary Barnes: Set up the factory and put the, like, whatever you’re worried about, put protections in place for it, require it to be a local joint venture or whatever.
You know, we’ve seen the blueprint in many of what used to be, you know, less rich countries. That’s how they, you know, got a head start on some of these technologies. It’s not like, I don’t think that China [00:22:00] has a head start on wind, wind turbine technology, but they certainly have different ways of doing things that, um, yeah, we could, we could learn from.
But I think across the board, wind turbines, batteries, solar panels, whatever, let them set up factories, put the rules in place that mean that your country benefits from it and you’re getting the, you know, the information transfer.
Yolanda Padron: Do you think that’ll, like, impulse a lot of these more established European companies to maybe start fixing some of the issues that they’ve known about for, for a while, um, particularly regarding the blades and everything that we’ve talked about earlier?
Like, there’s enough competition there, so maybe they need to start looking a little bit more deeply into their problems.
Allen Hall: Do we think that Chinese operations have been out front, forward, honest, I’ll even use, about their blade issues?
Rosemary Barnes: No, but this is a good way to find out, isn’t it?
Allen Hall: Governments decide who is allowed to build a turbine after a discussion on Scotland.
Uh, but, but [00:23:00] occasionally, a court decides what a turbine legally is. India has just settled that question, and the reasoning should be of interest to anybody who ships machines across a border right after this. As wind energy professionals, staying informed is crucial and let’s face it, difficult. That’s why the Uptime Podcast recommends PES Wind Magazine.
PES Wind offers a diverse range of in-depth articles and expert insights that dive into the most pressing issues facing our energy future. Whether you’re an industry veteran or new to wind, PES Wind has the high-quality content you need. Don’t miss out. Visit peswind.com today. A tax fight in India has produced a definition every turbine supplier should read.
Is a wind turbine bolted to a concrete foundation movable goods, or is it immovable property? State tax authorities argued immovable, which would have [00:24:00] taxed erection and commissioning contracts at 18% instead of 5%. The Andhra Pradesh, uh, High Court disagreed, and on the 12th of August, the Supreme Court declined to interfere.
The reasoning rests on something this whole industry takes for granted. A turbine can be taken down, moved, and put back up. So a turbine is a movable object, and it has less taxation. Bonus. So this is a really interesting discussion that’s happening in India because it’s probably symptomatic of things we’re seeing elsewhere across the world about taxation for wind turbines, right?
That, um, if there’s a way to tax a wind turbine, we’re gonna try to do it. This is a unique way, uh, that happens in India where depending on if it’s permanent or movable, the tax rates are different. I, I guess that would apply to a lot of components inside a wind turbine too, Matthew, don’t you? Like the, the generator, the, the big heavy things, [00:25:00] gearbox, generator, blades, rotors, tower sections, would be taxed at a, a lesser rate.
Matthew Stead: I agree with the court case that it’s all movable and, uh, you can actually buy turbines on the secondhand market, can’t you? I mean, if I wanted to buy, yeah, whatever, whatever, I could buy one and, and put it up in my backyard if I had a bigger backyard. Um, so yeah, I vote for movable. I vote for lower taxes.
Yolanda Padron: The way that it would work a lot of times in the US is, I mean, it’s, you pay, the company itself pays a lot less than they would’ve over time, right? Just by pure, the, the regular kind of tax laws. Um, but the community, there’d be just direct donations to the community, so then they’d get, uh, like money would actually come into the community where the turbines were being built instead of just distributed around the state, which I mean, in a state as big as Texas, it gets, um, but easier for that c- um, that county to get a lot more, uh, funding than they would typically get if it was [00:26:00] through a big enough area.
Um, but yeah, no, I agr- I completely agree with you guys that, that this should be a movable good. I mean, how many times have we seen, uh, even just a blade, um, that it looks like it’s, uh, just a, a failed blade that they have to go in and replace, and then they take it out, fix it, and then just bring it back to the same site or take it to another site across the country.
And, and to that point, like if you were to h- judge it as something that’s immovable, would then any blade replacement just not be taxed? Because then it’s, you’re moving that one component and two, but it’s essentially the same turbine. Like, I don’t know how that all would make sense.
Allen Hall: I think the Uptime Supreme Court agrees with the Indian Supreme Court that wind turbines are movable, and that’s good.
Well, that wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. [00:27:00] Reach out to us on LinkedIn. And if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show.
And don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. For Rosa, Yolanda, and Matthew, I’m Allen Hall. We’ll see you here next week on the Uptime Wind Energy podcast.
Renewable Energy
Vermont and Florida: A Key Difference
Can’t swear that the story here is authentic, but it sure rings true.
Vermont is a somewhat quirky state, but it protects its citizens very well. FWIW, this is where I want MY tax dollars going too.
Florida is a deeply red state that, true to form, wants as much ignorance as it can possibly produce. Educated people aren’t voting for people like Ron Desantis.
Renewable Energy
Republicans: Will This Work?
The GOP is asking American voters to believe that “radical left Democrat extremists” are leading the country into socialism/communism. They’re hoping that this fear will outweigh the electorate’s understanding of the damage that Trump, with help of congressional Republicans, is inflicting on this nation in the form of the war in Iran, destroyed relations with allies, inflation, shoddy education, environmental collapse, and threats to Social Security and Medicare.
As we all know, the rate at which a lie becomes accepted as true is a function of the frequency that it is repeated. And God knows, we see this crap about communism every time we turn around.
But this looks like an unwinnable battle. Virtually no one wants to abandon free enterprise. Moreover, Trump’s abysmal polling numbers reflect the fact that is largely despised as a criminal–the most corrupt figure in U.S. history.
How would you like to be campaigning to retired baby boomers on the platform that we cannot afford Social Security any longer, because we’ve siphoned off huge amounts of money, like our president’s “vanity war,” with only further downside in sight, that is costing $1 billion a day?
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