Have you heard the saying, “the only constant is change?” Whether or not the Greek philosopher Heraclitus actually said this, it’s become a hallmark response to people expressing uncomfortableness with change and uncertainty. When confronted with change, responses can happen along a spectrum; from digging in our heels and flat out denying that change is happening to taking action to usher in the change we want for ourselves and for our communities. At this year’s Summer Institute for Climate Change Education we dove deeply into the idea of change.
As an older millennial, I have found a way to live with the uncertainty of life. I’ll admit, sometimes it’s through apathy or defensiveness, but mostly it’s with acceptance and an eagerness to learn. I’m interested in going beyond merely acknowledging that change is happening, let’s explore the variables that help people find their agency within a changing environment.
So what’s the recipe for meeting change with openness? How can we remain permeable to the uncertainty that we are all faced with?
This year, the overarching theme at the Institute was Changemakers in Action. Originally coined by Ashoka’s founder in 1980 and later put into the public consciousness by Bill Clinton during the 2016 presidential race, the term changemaker has been a name that refers to a person that sees themselves as capable of creating large-scale positive change. Since then the term has taken on many different meanings, all unique to their own contexts.
The key phrase here being “sees themselves as capable”; that’s where agency comes in. Agency, or the sense of control that you feel in your life and the faith you have in your ability to handle a wide range of situations, is crucial for people to find their niche for stewarding the change they want to see. At the Summer Institute, participants engaged in a number of events aimed at increasing their confidence, competence, and agency in teaching climate change and creating opportunities for action within their communities. Read on to learn more about the 5 components of building agency in the climate change movement.
- Accepting the Urgency
We once talked about climate change as something that would harm future generations, but we can no longer ignore that we are all experiencing the impacts right now, while some of us have been for much longer. Climate change affects our day to day lives. Whether its extreme heat or smaller, seemling unnoticeable changes in the relationships between plants and animals. Summer Institute attendees explored the science behind climate change and how Indigenous peoples have been adapting to changes, including climate change, for millennia. When we see examples of other people and living creatures taking action to adapt, we know that we can also take action.
- Feeling the Connection
When asked if they feel personally impacted by climate change, the majority of U.S. Americans say no. This is unfortunate, because we know that climate change affects the food we eat, the air we breathe, the water we drink, and the places that provide us with shelter. Climate change also impacts people’s mental and physical health. At the Summer Institute we explored the connection between these impacts to better understand the deep connection between our lives and the changing environment. Feeling the gravity of climate change’s impacts on our day to day lives can be overwhelming, but it can also create a spark for action. If we can accept that people and other living things that we love are being harmed by climate change, we are more likely to do something about it.
- Building Relationships
It can be challenging to see the direct connection between our lives and climate change, especially when most of us don’t talk about climate on a regular basis and we don’t hear about it in the media. It is even harder when we live in communities that are actively dissuading us from acknowledging the climate crises. Developing relationships with people who know and care about the issue is vital to inspiring climate action. Attendees at the Summer Institute were connected with an international community of like-minded educators seeking to learn more about what they can do to increase their climate literacy and bring it back to their communities. In workshops, the online discussion forum, and in-person events, attendees built connections that will sustain them beyond the Summer Institute.
- Understanding the Levers for Change
The climate crisis is a systemic issue that requires systemic change. Not all solutions to climate change are equally impactful, and not all are available to everyone. At Climate Generation, we believe education is the most important systemic climate solution; it is how we prepare ourselves and our future generations to thrive. At the Summer Institute, we explored this complex topic through a series of workshops from experts across many disciplines, including politics, economics, and education. Educating ourselves and others can better prepare us to actively participate in a green economy, help us understand political decision-making, open our eyes to the disinformation campaigns working against us, and invigorate solutions in our communities. Education is a climate change solution.
- Taking Action
We get it. It’s hard to see the road to a just, sustainable future without a clear path to get there. That’s why we need to work in relationship with one another and build bridges across differences so we can hear stories of success. This year at the Summer Institute, we highlighted five groups who created climate change solutions for their communities. Through thoughtful, exploratory discussion, educators learned of the problem they were hoping to solve and the steps they took to get there. Presenters shared about the nuts and bolts of the projects, including who they worked with, what hurdles they came across, and what types of support made the work successful.
Educators left with a better vision for possibilities in their own local context.
At Climate Generation, we view changemakers as people who understand that they can be agents of change in the world, and work to make a difference through inclusive and collaborative problem solving. From youth advocating to their local policy makers in the capitol to the teachers who helped them coordinate rides to get there, we are all changemakers in our own way. We encourage you to see opportunities to build your own agency for taking climate action this year.
Interested in attending the Summer Institute for Climate Change Education? View the full Summer Institute Agenda and keep an eye on our plans for next year. Educators will be engaging with climate change education throughout the year through our online Teach Climate Network. Are you in the network? Check it out and sign up!
Lindsey Kirkland supports on-going climate change education programs for K-12 educators and public audiences. As the Education Manager, she also develops a vision for and provides strategic coordination for programs focusing primarily on professional development for teachers and informal educators. Lindsey is adjunct faculty at Hamline University and supported the development of their Climate Literacy Certificate, a contributing author of NSTA’s Connect Science Learning journal, and an active member of Climate Literacy and the Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) and the North American Association of Environmental Education (NAAEE) Guidelines for Excellence writing team. Lindsey has served as an environmental educator with the AmeriCorps program the NJ Watershed Ambassadors, worked as a naturalist and education program coordinator for the NJ Audubon Society, and assisted in program development for museums, universities, and new nonprofit organizations in the United States and Australia. Lindsey holds a BS in Environment, Conservation and Fisheries Sciences from the University of Washington in Seattle, WA and a MEd in Science Education from Rutgers University in New Brunswick, NJ. In her spare time, Lindsey enjoys spending time with her husband and her son.
The post Reflections: 2024 Summer Institute for Climate Change Education appeared first on Climate Generation.
Reflections: 2024 Summer Institute for Climate Change Education
Pacific governments say an official UN report shows their push for a levy on all shipping emissions – with the revenues redistributed to poorer nations – is fairer, cheaper and more effective than other green options under consideration.
The report, overseen by a steering committee of 32 governments and published by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), found that a levy would do less damage to the global economy than a standard for cleaner fuels and, if designed right, could help reduce global economic inequality.
Marshall Islands shipping negotiator Albon Ishoda said the analysis showed that a direct levy on emissions “is the fastest, cheapest and most equitable way” to decarbonise shipping, a sector that accounts for 3% of the world’s greenhouse gas pollution.
A levy would force ship owners to pay for every tonne of greenhouse gases their vessels emit, making the use of more-polluting fuels – like today’s oil-based bunker fuel – more expensive. It would incentive the use of lower-emitting fuels like ammonia, biofuels, methanol and hydrogen.
Ishoda said he now expects to see countries coalesce around an emissions levy, adding that “alternatives such as relying solely on a fuel standard could be up to twice as damaging for global GDP by 2050, with the poorest countries hit hardest”.
IPCC’s input into key UN climate review at risk as countries clash over timeline
But written comments on the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report show that Brazil, Argentina and China disputed its findings. Latin American nations have long led opposition to an emissions levy, fearing it will harm their trade-dependent economies.
Argentinian officials noted that they were “surprised” at the conclusion that levies would lead to less economic damage in the long term while Brazil wrote that this was “nonsensical”.
Argentina said it was “policy-prescriptive and therefore unacceptable” for the report to suggest that disbursing the revenues would help developing countries more than developed ones, while China argued this aspect should not have been factored in as “the impact assessment should focus on the impact of the measure, rather than the impact after revenue distribution”.
Levy or fuel standard?
Governments have already agreed to put a price on shipping emissions as a way to reach net zero “by or around, i.e. close to 2050”. But they have not settled on exactly how to do that, instead tasking experts to study the impacts of various proposals.
One proposal – which most countries support – is a fuel standard that would see ship owners pay for emissions only above a certain level. Owners of ships emitting below this level could potentially sell licenses to those emitting above it, enabling them to continue polluting. This would incentivise shipowners to use cleaner fuels or to save fuel by sailing slower.
Some countries – like the Pacific island states and many European nations – want to combine this fuel standard with a levy, where ship owners would have to pay varying amounts based on their vessels’ total annual greenhouse gas emissions.
Renewable-energy carbon credits rejected by high-integrity scheme
Under the direction of governments, experts from UNCTAD, the World Maritime University, DNV and Starcrest Consulting Group produced four separate reports, modelling dozens of different scenarios.
UNCTAD found that any emissions-cutting scenario would push up the cost of shipping, damaging the global economy by around 0.1-0.2% by 2050. It did not model the economic benefits of how the measures would help curb climate change.
Comparing a levy to a fuel standard, the UNCTAD report concluded that “in the long run (2050), scenarios that envisage a levy have a smaller impact” on economic growth.
University College of London academic Tristan Smith, who worked on the paper, explained that the levies modelled lead to greater subsidies for zero-emission fuels and higher incentives for fuel efficiency than the proposed fuel standard. He told Climate Home that this lowers the cost of the transition and therefore the damage to economic growth.
Fairer and faster?
The report found that a fuel standard without a levy would damage the economies of developing countries – particularly small islands (SIDs) and least developed countries (LDCs) – more than developed countries because any increase in shipping costs hits the poorest hardest.
A high emissions levy of $150-300 per tonne of CO2 equivalent would be fairer, it found, broadly damaging developing countries’ economies less than developed ones, assuming that the revenues were distributed to poorer nations. Such a levy would actually boost the economies of most LDCs, it found, and damage SIDs less than the alternatives.
Consultants from Starcrest interviewed representatives of governments and business in various countries and heard concerns that economies exporting cheap, bulky goods over long distances would be badly hit by an increase in the cost of shipping. It cited Tonga’s exports of the medicinal kava plant and the US’s exports of wood chips as examples.
If green measures drive ships to slow down to save fuel, then countries that rely on exporting perishable goods to faraway destinations would suffer, Starcrest was told. Argentina’s beef and Chile’s cherry industries could be vulnerable.
As first airline drops goal, are aviation’s 2030 targets achievable without carbon offsets?
University of Sao Paulo economist Paula Pereda told Climate Home that a levy would “quickly reduce emissions”, but warned against its “potential regressive impacts, which more negatively affect poorer countries and poorer families in all countries”.
While revenue redistribution could help tackle this unfairness, it could also increase emissions from the compensated households and increase the complexity of the mechanism, she added.
“Balancing environmental benefits with social equity remains a key challenge in the implementation of carbon tax policies,” she said.
Governments will debate whether to pursue a levy or fuel standard at the next set of IMO talks in London, starting on September 30. They are aiming to have a measure in place by 2027, which means they will need to agree it at talks in April 2025.
(Reporting by Joe Lo; editing by Megan Rowling)
The post Key UN report lends weight to Pacific plan for shipping emissions levy appeared first on Climate Home News.
Key UN report lends weight to Pacific plan for shipping emissions levy
Climate Change
China Briefing 8 August: Record extreme weather; First quarterly CO2 fall since Covid; ‘Dual control’ of carbon emissions
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Hottest month in history
RECORD HEAT: July 2024 was China’s “hottest month in observed modern history” (since records began in 1961), in a record coinciding with the world experiencing its hottest day on 22 July, Reuters reported. Every province across the country saw average temperatures for July rise year-on-year, with Guizhou, Yunnan, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang ranking highest, it said, adding that the record were unusual because “the El Nino climate pattern…ended in April, but temperatures have not abated”. State broadcaster CCTV said on 4 August that several provinces had experienced temperatures between 40-43.9C, warning residents to “reduce” time spent outdoors. Reuters also said that rising temperatures “sharply pushed up demand for power to cool homes and offices” and “stoked fears of damage to rice crops”, adding that the city of Hangzhou “banned all non-essential outdoor lighting and light shows this week to conserve energy”.
-
Sign up to Carbon Brief’s free “China Briefing” email newsletter. All you need to know about the latest developments relating to China and climate change. Sent to your inbox every Thursday.
RECORD FLOODS: According to the state-supporting Global Times, China has “experienced 25 numbered flood events” this year, the highest number since records began in 1998. The newspaper said that, according to Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, “[due to] global climate change, extreme weather events are increasing, which increases the difficulty of forecasting [rainfall and floods]”. Another CCTV report cited the China Meteorological Administration saying that the country experienced two typhoons and recorded “13.3% higher than average” rainfall in July. Typhoon Gaemi killed 30 people and left 35 missing in Zixing, Hunan province, Reuters said. State news agency Xinhua stated that the typhoon also caused “damage” in the coastal provinces of Fujian and Liaoning, affecting 766,900 and 60,000 residents, respectively. Xinhua reported the Chinese government called for “proactive” flood control and for “disaster relief funds [to] be allocated promptly”. The state-sponsored outlet China News said the Ministry of Water Resources issued 649m yuan ($90m) to support “flood relief” in 14 affected provinces.
New renewable energy targets and ‘green electricity’ trading policy
NEW RENEWABLE TARGETS: Regulators published provincial targets for 2024-25 under China’s renewable portfolio standards (RPS) on 2 August, reported China Power. The targets, for the renewable share of electricity supply, increased by more than 3 percentage points year-on-year in most provinces, according to analysis published by financial outlet Yicai, “compared with a 1 to 2 points jump in previous years”.
NEW ALUMINIUM TARGETS: In order to help meet the targets, regulators also issued renewable-energy goals for the aluminium industry in each province for the first time, China Power said. Reuters reported that Shandong, China’s biggest aluminium producer, is “set a target for renewables to account for 21% of the energy used to produce the metal”. The targets in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan province, which are also major aluminium producers, are set at 29% and 70%, respectively, added the newswire. China Power said that the “green electricity consumption” in the aluminium industry will be “calculated based on ‘green electricity certificates’ (GECs)” – a scheme that allows electricity generated by non-fossil fuels to be traded between producers and buyers. (See Carbon Brief’s China Briefing of 24 August 2023 for background on China’s GECs.)
‘GREEN ELECTRICITY’ TRADING: While announcing this year’s targets, the government also issued new rules for trading “green electricity” for the “medium to long term”, BJX News reported. The document says the trade via GECs should not be subject to price limits or set prices and, instead, work as a market-based system, unless “clearly stipulated by the state”. Trading should take place “mainly within provinces” with strong wind and solar resources, and can “gradually expand to other qualified renewable energy sources” when “conditions are ripe”, added the outlet.
CARBON MARKET INCLUSION: Despite an announcement in 2023 that GECs may be included in the carbon market in the future, China Power Enterprise Management magazine said that, currently, the GECs “have almost no impact on the national carbon market”, because GECs “is limited to low indirect emissions from electricity”. If energy-intensive industries are included in the carbon market, GECs can cover around 19% of carbon emissions in China, added the magazine.
No mention of reform in new power system plan
UPGRADING THE SYSTEM: BJX News reported that China has issued a plan to upgrade its power system to “promote the construction of a new type of power system” between now and 2027. The outlet said the new system should be “safe, stable, cost-effective, flexible” and support the addition of more “clean and low-carbon” resources. A “key effect” of the plan, according to the National Energy Administration, is to improve the transmission of renewable energy from the remote desert bases to cities “at a large scale”, added the outlet.
‘NEW-GENERATION’ OF COAL: Another BJX News article stated that the plan also proposes to “carry out experimental demonstrations of new-generation coal power” and explore a development path for coal “that is compatible with the development of a ‘new type’ power system”. Economic news outlet Jiemian also noted that the call to guarantee stable power supply “ranked at the top of the nine special actions outlined by the action plan”. (A new report by Ember, covered by Carbon Brief, stated that increasing investments in low-carbon energy by state-owned enterprises is pushing coal into “decline”.)
REFORM OMITTED: Reuters quoted Xuewan Chen, energy transition analyst at LSEG, saying the plan “focuses on building a more flexible power grid to better manage the [energy] transition”, but that the document did not mention “power market reform and the creation of a competitive power market to more effectively allocate resources”.
Solar industry woes continue
‘UPHEAVAL’: China’s domestic solar industry is in “upheaval” with wholesale prices falling by another 25% so far this year, after falling by almost half in 2023, the New York Times reported. It quoted Frank Haugwitz, a solar industry consultant, saying efforts by the Chinese government to rein in the industry’s expansion have been “too small to reduce China’s overcapacity”. Bloomberg said that an increasing number of Chinese solar manufacturers “are falling into restructuring or bankruptcy”, adding that “while bigger players like Longi have so far survived billions of yuan in losses by imposing production halts and layoffs, smaller companies have fewer ways to plug financial gaps”.
‘SEVERE OVERCAPACITY’: In a meeting of China’s Politburo at the end of July, state-run newspaper China Daily said, president Xi Jinping called for “strengthening industry self-regulation and preventing ‘involutional’ vicious competition”, adding that China should “strengthen the market mechanisms” to help with “inefficient production capacity”. The outlet did not report that any particular sectors were named during the meeting. Several days earlier, Bloomberg stated that Wang Bohua, head of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, had called for “struggling solar manufacturers [to be pushed] to exit the market as soon as possible to reduce severe overcapacity”.
SOLAR SURGE: Elsewhere, BJX News reported that China added 134 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable capacity in the first six months of 2024, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA) – an increase of 24% year-on-year. It added that solar made up 102GW of the total. (Total US solar capacity stood at 139GW at the end of 2023.)
51.1%
The share of sales of “new energy vehicles” (NEVs) – which includes both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids – in China in July, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The trade body added that NEV performance beat manufacturers’ expectations, which it attributed to a trade-in policy encouraging consumers to replace old cars.
Spotlight
China moves towards ‘dual-control of carbon’ with new work plan
China has released a plan that will set an absolute limit on its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the first time, shifting to “dual control” of total CO2 emissions and carbon intensity instead of total energy use and energy intensity.
The document, outlining a timeline for China to construct this new system for carbon “dual-control”, will be a key element of the country’s strategy to meet its climate goals.
In this issue, Carbon Brief assesses the document’s implications for China’s future emissions targets.
Switching to dual-control of carbon
In 2016, Beijing established a set of targets for energy intensity – its energy consumption per unit of GDP – and total energy consumption, in a system known as the “dual-control of energy”.
Since 2021, the central government has called for replacing the “dual-control of energy” with “dual-control of carbon”, which would be comprised of targets for both carbon intensity and total carbon emissions. China has only ever set targets for CO2 intensity, not for total CO2 emissions.
This shift began taking shape on 2 August when the State Council, China’s top administrative body, released a “work plan” outlining the first concrete design of the new system.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s primary economic planning body, told reporters at a press conference that the plan “establishes a clear direction” for developing renewable energy and “focusing on control of fossil-fuel energy consumption”.
Anticipating a 2030 peak?
According to the new plan, China aims to establish a “completed” statistics and accounting system for CO2 emissions by 2025. Components of this system include carbon footprint standards, a national database of greenhouse gas emission factors and other measurement and monitoring capabilities.
Between 2026 and 2030 – the period of the 15th five-year plan – China will replace current targets under “dual-control” of energy with a policy on “dual-control” of carbon that places “[carbon] intensity control as the main focus and control of the total amount [of carbon] as a supplement”.
This means that, under the new system, carbon intensity targets will remain binding and the cap on China’s total CO2 emissions will initially be a non-binding “supplement”.
In subsequent five-year plan periods, China will set a binding cap for total CO2 emissions, which will become the “key target” once China’s carbon peak is reached, with carbon intensity as a secondary target.
“The timeline here indicates policymakers still only aim to peak emissions by 2030, despite the clear likelihood that emissions will…peak much sooner,” Yao Zhe, global policy analyst for Greenpeace East Asia, said in a statement, adding that this shows China is still “underpromising”.
Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China climate hub, told Carbon Brief that the ambiguity is intentional to allow policymakers “to further clarify when and how they want to make that switch [to an absolute cap]” after a peak is confirmed.
He added that policymakers’ “intrinsic inability” to predict the exact peaking timeline is the reason for setting two targets under the [new] dual-control system, as, once it happens, China “can just switch to the other [metric]”.
‘Rolling up its sleeves’
The shift from focusing on “dual-control of energy” to “dual-control of carbon” is a “change from process control to results-oriented management that will compel industries to adopt green technologies”, according to Qi Qin, China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
China is falling short of its existing carbon intensity target, she said, making it important to “accelerate” its energy transition and clean energy buildout – priorities that are emphasised in the work plan.
Local governments are tasked with developing more specific targets, taking “local conditions” into account. Actions are also outlined for central government departments, industry associations and enterprises.
The central government subsequently released a related action plan to issue 70 national standards in areas including carbon footprints, CO2 emissions reduction, energy efficiency and carbon capture, utilisation and storage.
When formulating targets, the document urges policymakers to consider “economic development, energy security [and] normal production”, pointing to existing anxieties around maintaining stable access to power, which the country currently mostly relies on fossil fuels to provide.
Li told Carbon Brief:
“This is the Chinese government rolling up its sleeves and trying to make quite an important switch…Folks have been advocating for China to really reduce its emissions in absolute terms for almost two decades. This is the mechanics of how this will happen – them actually making this switch and trying to make sure this is done in the right way by, for example, disaggregating [targets] to the local level, getting the private sector involved and trying to build up the carbon accounting system from the bottom up.”
Implications for China’s NDC targets
As well as meeting domestic policy needs, the NDRC said, a dual-carbon control system is “conducive” to setting the country’s new international climate pledge (nationally determined contribution, NDC), and supports the image of China as “a responsible large country that is actively responding to global climate change”.
Yao said Greenpeace expects that China’s next NDC will include a carbon emission reduction goal for 2035.
Li told Carbon Brief that China’s international pledge will then drive domestic targets, due to “how the timeline works”. He added: “The NDC [target] for 2035 has to be communicated in 2025, [looking] 10 years into the future…The job of the five-year plans for the next two five-year periods [will then be] to align with that international pledge.”
Watch, read, listen
DRIVING FORCE: A report released today by Ember found that global wind capacity will double by 2030, with the majority of additions being installed in China.
SUPPORTING INNOVATION: Huang Kunming, governor of Guangdong province, wrote in the People’s Daily about the need to boost innovation to meet China’s development needs, including to “accelerate the green transformation of development”.
SUPPLY CHAINS: A Boston University Global Development Policy Center study found commercial ties between China and Latin American and Caribbean countries have broadened from solely minerals and agriculture to include the automotive, energy and transport sectors.
TACKLING METHANE: The California-China Climate Institute hosted a webinar on the state of agricultural methane emissions and bilateral cooperation between the US and China, building on a recently released report.
Captured
CO2 emissions in China fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2024, the first quarterly fall since the country re-opened from “zero-Covid” lockdowns, new analysis for Carbon Brief found. The reduction was driven by the surge in clean energy additions, which is pushing fossil fuel power into reverse – although the shift is being somewhat diluted by rapid energy demand growth in the coal-to-chemicals sector.
New science
The dominant warming season shifted from winter to spring in the arid region of Northwest China
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
A new paper investigated the “seasonal asymmetry” in warming in the arid region of northwest China – which has experienced “significantly higher” warming than the global average, according to the paper. The authors used station and reanalysis data to investigate seasonal temperature changes in the region. They found that “the dominant season of temperature increase shifted from winter to spring”. The paper added that the main reason for warming in spring was a decrease in cloud cover, while a strengthening Siberian High was mainly responsible for driving winter cooling.
Carbon emissions from urban takeaway delivery in China
npj Urban Sustainability
Transport-related emissions from food deliveries in Chinese cities “surged” from 0.31m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2014 to 2.74MtCO2e in 2021, a new study found. The authors analysed the rise in emissions from food deliveries and explored possible policies to mitigate these emissions in the future. They estimated that by 2035, transport-related emissions from food deliveries will rise to 5.94MtCO2e. However, if motorcycles were replaced with electric bikes and traffic routes were optimised, “it is possible to mitigate such GHG emissions by 4.39-10.97MtCO2e between 2023 and 2035,” they said.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 8 August: Record extreme weather; First quarterly CO2 fall since Covid; ‘Dual control’ of carbon emissions appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Human-caused climate change made the “unprecedented” wildfires that spread across Brazil’s Pantanal wetlands in June 2024 between four and five times more likely, according to a new rapid attribution study.
South America’s Pantanal – the world’s largest tropical wetland – experienced exceptionally hot, dry and windy conditions in June, causing blazes in the region to soar.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA) service finds that the month was the hottest, driest and windiest year in the 45-year record.
The team conducted an attribution study to find the “fingerprint” of climate change on these weather conditions.
They find that, in a world without climate change, these conditions would be very rare – occurring only once every 161 years.
In today’s climate, which has already warmed by 1.2C above pre-industrial temperatures as a result of human-caused warming, these conditions are a one-in-35 year event.
The authors also explore how wildfires in the region could continue to worsen as the planet warms.
They find that if that planet reaches warming levels of 2C, the likelihood of these conditions could double, to once every 18 years.
Soaring fires
The vast Pantanal wetland extends across Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay.
It is one of the most biodiverse places on earth, home to more than 4,700 plant and animal species.
Every year, hot and dry weather conditions make the wetland prone to wildfires – usually between July and September.
By June this year, intense wildfires were already soaring. The number of Pantanal fires increased by 1,500% in the first half of this year compared to the same period in 2023, according to data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research reported by the Brasil de Fato newspaper.
This amounts to more than 1.3m hectares of the wetland burned so far this year – an area around eight times the size of London.
Around 2,500 fires were identified in June, which is the highest number since 1998 and more than six times the level reported in 2020, which was “known as the ‘year of flames,’ when wildfires ravaged the area and sparked widespread outcry”, the Associated Press said.
The region is currently experiencing its worst drought in 70 years, which Brazil’s government has said is being “intensified by climate change and one of the strongest El Niño phenomena in history”.
Prolonged dry periods, high temperatures and land-use change all contribute to wildfire conditions, says Dr Maria Lucia Barbosa, a postdoctoral researcher at the Federal University of São Carlos in Brazil, who was not involved in the attribution study. She tells Carbon Brief:
“While fires are a natural part of the Pantanal ecosystem, the recurrence of extreme fire seasons – such as the current one, shortly after the devastating 2020 fires – suggests that, alongside climate change, a new fire regime may be emerging in the ecosystem, characterised by increased severity and frequency.”
Hot, dry and windy
Wildfire intensity and duration are influenced by a wide range of factors, including weather, vegetation and fire management strategies.
The authors of the new study focus on a metric called the “daily severity rating” (DSR), which combines information on maximum temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation. Dr Clair Barnes – a research associate at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute and author on the study – told a press briefing that this metric “indicates how difficult it is likely to be to control the fire once it starts”.
High temperatures and wind speeds, as well as low humidity and rainfall, are very conducive to wildfires spreading and, therefore, produce a high DSR.
The map below shows the average DSR in the Pantanal in June 2024. It reveals that most of the Pantanal was experiencing wildfire risk above the 1990-2020 average over that month.
The weather conditions in the Pantanal in June 2024 were “really unusual for the time of year”, Barnes said.
To investigate how atypical the weather conditions in June 2024 were, the authors analysed temperature, windiness, rainfall and humidity data from the past 45 years.
The chart below depicts annual average rainfall and annual average daily maximum temperature in the Pantanal over 1979-2024. It shows that over the past 45 years, the average temperature in the Pantanal has been steadily increasing and total rainfall has been decreasing.
The authors find that June 2024 was the hottest, least rainy and windiest June since records began. They also find that the relative humidity was the second lowest on record.
Annual rainfall across the Pantanal has been decreasing over the past 40 years, the authors note. They point out that natural variability and deforestation are known to impact rainfall patterns across South America, but add that climate change “may also be influencing the drying trend”.
Attribution
Attribution is a fast-growing field of climate science that aims to identify the “fingerprint” of climate change on extreme-weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts.
To conduct attribution studies, scientists use models to compare the world as it is today to a “counterfactual” world without human-caused climate change. In this study, the authors investigated the impact of climate change on DSR in the Pantanal region.
They find that in today’s climate – which has already warmed by 1.2C as a result of human activity – fire weather conditions like the ones that drove the wildfires in the Brazilian Pantanal during June 2024 are a “relatively rare event”, and would be expected to occur roughly once every 35 years.
However, they say, if the planet continues to warm, these events could become more likely. If the climate warms to 2C above pre-industrial levels, the likelihood of these fire conditions will double compared to today.
The graphic below shows how often June fire weather conditions, such as those seen in the Brazilian Pantanal in June 2024, could be expected under different warming levels.
The square on the left shows a world without climate change, in which these DSR levels would happen once every 161 years. The middle square shows that in today’s climate, the DSR is a one-in-35 year event. And the square on the right shows that in a 2C world, a June DSR like that of 2024 could be expected once every 18 years.
The authors also investigate how climate change affected DSR “intensity”. They find that human-induced warming from burning fossil fuels increased the June 2024 DSR by about 40%.
The authors add that as the climate continues to warm, this trend is likely to worsen. The authors warn that if warming reaches 2C above pre-industrial temperatures, similar June fire weather conditions will become 17% “more impactful”.
(These findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in previous attribution studies.)
Fire impacts
Wildfires have wide-ranging impacts on people and nature in the Pantanal. In one example, a 2021 study found that around 17m vertebrates were “killed immediately” by the fires in 2020.
Wildfires can “devastate [the] livelihoods” of people living in the Pantanal and “pose significant health risks” from the resulting smoke, Barbosa says.
She notes that wildfires release CO2 into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change, and they “lead to widespread loss of habitat, endanger wildlife and disrupt ecological balances”. She tells Carbon Brief:
“Species that are already threatened or have limited ranges are particularly vulnerable to habitat destruction caused by fires.
“Repeated fires can push fire-sensitive vegetation into a state of permanent degradation, further threatening the ecological integrity of the region.”
Some fires are permitted for agricultural purposes – such as to burn degraded pasture – during the rainy season, from around November to April. This practice is banned in the drier summer months, but a 2020 piece from Mongabay notes that “in reality, the ban is not always respected and enforcement is haphazard”.
Filippe Santos, a researcher at Portugal’s University of Évora and one of the authors of the study, told a press briefing that “fire is part of the dynamics” of the Pantanal – when it is controlled.
Low-intensity fires allow animals “time to leave” the area, he said, adding:
“What we see with wildfires, is that this does not happen, because the fire is so intense and on such a large scale that animals don’t have time to run away.”
The “highly intense” wildfires also “don’t give nature enough time to recover”, Santos says.
In June, Brazil’s environment minister, Marina Silva, told the government news agency Agencia Brasil that the country is “facing one of the worst situations ever seen in the Pantanal”, adding that the fires are heightened by climate extremes and criminal activities.
Most Pantanal fires are caused by human activity, a 2022 study found. Police in Brazil are investigating the “possible culprits” behind 18 fire outbreaks in the region, Silva said last month.
In recent weeks, a law to improve coordination on tackling fires took effect in Brazil.
A statement from the Institute for Society, Population and Nature, a Brazilian NGO, says this new policy is a “significant milestone” and will establish “guidelines for the practice of integrated fire management across all biomes and territories in the country”.
Barbosa says it will be a “challenge” to implement this policy. She would like to see a “comprehensive national early warning system for multiple hazards to ensure risk reduction” for a range of threats – including wildfires. She tells Carbon Brief:
“Collaboration with local communities, firefighters and brigades is crucial for prevention and response efforts…A coordinated approach that integrates all stakeholders, along with the establishment of a national fund dedicated to fire management, is essential for mitigating the impacts of future fire seasons.”
The post Climate change made the ‘supercharged’ 2024 Pantanal wildfires 40% more intense appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate change made the ‘supercharged’ 2024 Pantanal wildfires 40% more intense
Reflections: 2024 Summer Institute for Climate Change Education
Carbon Credits vs. Carbon Offsets
Warmest Sea Surface Temperatures in 400 Years Present ‘Existential Threat’ to Great Barrier Reef, Study Finds
Spanish-language misinformation on renewable energy spreads online, report shows
Clouds now contains plastic, contaminating ‘everything we eat and drink’
Why airlines are perfect targets for anti-greenwashing legal action
-
Climate Change10 months ago
Spanish-language misinformation on renewable energy spreads online, report shows
-
Climate Change10 months agoClouds now contains plastic, contaminating ‘everything we eat and drink’
-
Climate Change10 months ago
Why airlines are perfect targets for anti-greenwashing legal action
-
Climate Change Videos9 months ago
The toxic gas flares fuelling Nigeria’s climate change – BBC News
-
Greenhouse Gases10 months agoHow Climate Change Endangers Wildlife and Ecosystems
-
Climate Change10 months agoFarmers turn to tech as bees struggle to pollinate
-
Climate Change Videos9 months ago
-
Green Living8 months ago5 Reasons to Love Lomi + How to Use It