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Nickel Prices Fall to a 4-Year Low, What Causes The Plunge

Demand for battery-grade nickel is projected to grow significantly by the end of the decade due to rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption. However, the nickel market faced more volatility and uncertainty in November 2024, according to S&P Commodity Insights data. It is largely due to macroeconomic and political developments following Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory. 

Trump’s Victory Fuels Nickel Market Volatility

Nickel is vital for producing stainless steel and alloys used in equipment, transport, buildings, and power generation. Major nickel producers include Indonesia, the Philippines, Russia, and Australia, with Indonesia having the highest nickel reserves while Australia has the most active mining projects. 

Global nickel reserves and active mining projects
Source: S&P Global

Nickel futures are traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reflecting its global industrial importance. The LME three-month nickel price dropped to a four-year low of $15,540 per metric ton on November 15. 

nickel prices drop 4-year low LME

Concerns over Trump’s potential economic policies, particularly their implications for China, the industrial metals’ top consumer, have fueled investor caution. A stronger U.S. dollar and increased LME nickel inventories further worsen the downward pressure on prices as shown above. This highlights a risk-off sentiment across metals markets.

  • Nickel prices initially saw an uptick after Trump’s election win, rising from $16,007 per metric ton on November 4 to $16,587 per metric ton on November 7. 

This temporary boost mirrored gains in U.S. equity markets. However, optimism quickly faded as the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index climbed to a one-year high, fueled by market expectations that Trump’s policies—such as higher tariffs on Chinese imports—could revive U.S. inflation. 

The prospect of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve further strengthened the dollar. This makes nickel and other commodities more expensive for non-dollar investors.

Investor sentiment in the nickel market took another hit following China’s unveiling of a 10 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus package on November 8. The measures failed to meet market expectations for more aggressive economic support. This disappointment, coupled with rising nickel inventories and a nearly 4x increase in net short positions on LME nickel, accelerated the price decline. 

By mid-November, the LME three-month nickel price had plunged to levels not seen since November 2020, underscoring the market’s vulnerability to both economic and geopolitical developments. 

nickel futures prices Trading Economics

In late November, nickel rebounded to $16,040 per tonne amid Indonesia’s tighter mining policies. Approved quotas could drop 27% by 2026, while license fees for low-grade ore may be reduced.

According to the Indonesian mining minister, nickel ore imports surged 50-fold, as officials prioritized domestic reserves and warned of dwindling stocks to stabilize prices.

IRA Under Threat: What Trump’s Plans Mean for Nickel and EVs

The implications of Trump’s election for the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) add another layer of uncertainty to the global nickel market. 

Signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022, the IRA has been a key driver of clean energy initiatives. This includes a $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric vehicles

However, Trump’s transition team is reportedly considering repealing this tax credit as part of broader tax reform efforts. Such a move could slow the adoption of EVs in the U.S. This could undermine a major driver of global primary nickel demand over the next five years.

Additionally, Trump’s administration may tighten the IRA’s foreign entity of concern (FEOC) guidelines, which currently disqualify companies with significant Chinese ownership from benefiting from the EV tax credit. For instance, Indonesia—a leading producer of nickel—has been working to reduce China’s influence to qualify for IRA incentives. 

In a recent deal between PT Vale Indonesia and China’s GEM Co., GEM’s stake in a $1.42 billion nickel plant was capped at 25% to comply with the guidelines. However, stricter FEOC rules could make it even harder for such projects to qualify for U.S. tax incentives. This can potentially limit Indonesia’s ability to expand its nickel exports to the U.S.

China remains a dominant player in Indonesia’s nickel sector. Between January and September 2024, Indonesia exported 129,860 metric tons of nickel sulfate exclusively to China. 

Indonesia nickel export to China

If Indonesia faces challenges in accessing U.S. markets due to stricter IRA policies, its reliance on China is likely to deepen. This dynamic could reshape global nickel supply chains, with potential long-term implications for battery manufacturing and EV production.

Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain? Nickel’s Future Outlook

Beyond U.S. policy developments, other global factors are contributing to nickel market uncertainty. Escalations in the Russia-Ukraine war have dampened investor confidence, while concerns about slowing economic growth in China continue to weigh on demand projections. 

The interplay of these factors has led to reduced risk appetite among investors, as evidenced by the sharp rise in short positions on LME nickel.

Despite these challenges, S&P Global’s fundamental outlook for primary nickel supply and demand remains broadly unchanged from previous forecasts. However, the near-term trading environment is expected to remain difficult. 

Amid all these challenging market conditions, an emerging player is targeting U.S. nickel independence. Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (AEMC) is leading efforts to support the U.S. energy transition through its flagship Nikolai project in Alaska. The site holds a significant resource of nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals essential for renewable energy and electric vehicles.

The Canadian nickel junior’s dual focus on sustainability and critical mineral supply underscores its commitment to reducing U.S. reliance on imports.

With the nickel prices already at a multi-year low, the market’s recovery will depend on clearer policy signals and stronger demand drivers, particularly from the EV and clean energy sectors. 


Disclosure: Owners, members, directors, and employees of carboncredits.com have/may have stock or option positions in any of the companies mentioned: AEMC.

Carboncredits.com receives compensation for this publication and has a business relationship with any company whose stock(s) is/are mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: This communication serves the sole purpose of adding value to the research process and is for information only. Please do your own due diligence. Every investment in securities mentioned in publications of carboncredits.com involves risks that could lead to a total loss of the invested capital.

Please read our Full RISKS and DISCLOSURE here.

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Nestlé to Plant 11 Million Trees in Brazil to Generate Carbon Credits and Boost Sustainability

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Nestlé to Plant 11 Million Trees in Brazil to Generate Carbon Credits and Boost Sustainability

Nestlé, the Swiss food and drink giant, has committed to two major restoration projects in Brazil to generate carbon credits. The company is working with re.green, a Brazilian restoration company, and chocolatier Barry Callebaut on these projects.

They aim to cut down Nestlé’s carbon footprint. At the same time, they aim to restore degraded lands, plant native trees, and support more sustainable supply chains for cocoa and coffee.

Planting Millions: Nestlé’s Brazil Projects

Nestlé’s deal with re.green focuses on restoring roughly 2,000 hectares in Bahia’s Atlantic Forest. Over a 30-year period, the project plans to plant around 3.3 million native trees.

Re.green estimates this will create around 880,000 tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in carbon credits. This is based on a strong ARR (Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation) method.

In a second initiative, Nestlé and Barry Callebaut will work on 6,000 hectares across Bahia and Pará. This project will turn degraded land into a mixed agroforestry system—mainly cocoa trees plus native species.

The plan calls for planting 7.7 million seedlings over many years. This agroforestry system is expected to generate around 600,000 tonnes of carbon credits.

Altogether, Nestlé’s efforts in Brazil cover about 8,000 hectares and aim to plant roughly 11 million trees.

Nestle carbon credit deals Brazil

Why This Deal Matters for Climate and Business

This deal is strategically important for Nestlé on several fronts. First, it supports its climate goals. These project credits reduce carbon in the atmosphere. This helps Nestlé aim for net-zero emissions in the long run.

Second, the projects improve Nestlé’s supply chain resilience. Restoring landscapes where the company sources cocoa and coffee helps to keep these regions healthy.

Third, these are not just tree-planting projects. Restoration boosts biodiversity, enhances soil quality, safeguards water resources, and helps local communities. Using native species in the Atlantic Forest helps preserve one of Brazil’s most threatened biomes.

Finally, the deal is a signal of long-term commitment. Nestlé is more than just buying credits. It’s creating nature-based solutions that match its business and environmental goals.

Nestlé’s Roadmap to Net-Zero

  • Nestlé has set bold climate targets. The company aims to plant 200 million trees by 2030 and achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Nestlé GHG emission reductions 2023
Source: Nestlé

In its 2024 Non-Financial Statement, Nestlé clarifies that it will not use carbon credits outside its value chain to achieve its main net-zero goals. Instead, it invests in nature-based solutions tied directly to its sourcing regions.

Nestlé uses rigorous approaches to estimate greenhouse gas removals. It accounts for tree growth, species types, soil differences, and uses field data and science-based models. It also meets global standards, like those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the GHG Protocol. This helps ensure transparency and accuracy.

In addition to reforestation, Nestlé partners on regenerative agriculture. For instance, it has a global agroforestry initiative with OFI (Olam Food Ingredients). This program will help 25,000 farmers in Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, and Nigeria change their farms.

  • The plan includes planting 2.8 million trees and transforming more than 72,000 hectares into agroforestry systems over time.

These combined efforts show how Nestlé links carbon removal, biodiversity restoration, and sustainable farming to its broader climate strategy.

Nestlé’s Nescafé hit its 2025 target early by sourcing 32% of its coffee through regenerative agriculture in 2024. This gives it a strong lead toward the 2030 goal of 50%.

Nescafé 2025 sustainability goal
Source: Nescafé Plan 2030 Report

The company has invested over $1 billion. This supports more than 200,000 farmers on 400,000 hectares. They train these farmers in methods like shade trees, natural composting, and cover crops.

These practices help restore soil health and lower the need for chemicals. They have also cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20-40% per kilogram of green coffee. They also help Nestlé reach its goal of halving production-related emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2050.

Backing the Green: Funding and Market Momentum

These reforestation deals come amid strong momentum in Brazil’s nature-based carbon sector. The Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) approved an $85 million loan for ARR projects. These projects should create about 2.47 million carbon credits.

Meanwhile, re.green itself has won fresh financing. It secured 80 million reais (approx. US$14 million) from BNDES, with Bradesco as a financial partner. The deal helps re.green scale up restoration in key biomes.

Credits from ARR projects in Brazil, especially those using high-quality methods, should trade for around $55 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. This carbon price can vary based on deal structures.

This shows that both public and private resources are flowing into nature-based carbon solutions. For Nestlé, joining this trend offers both environmental benefits and strategic value.

Impact for Business and Nature

These contracted projects by Nestlé have a significant impact on business and nature:

  • Credible Carbon Removal:
    Nestlé is funding long-term restoration projects linked to its supply chain. This helps create high-integrity carbon credits instead of just buying generic ones.
  • Sustainable Sourcing:
    Restoring tree cover in cocoa and coffee regions strengthens the ecological base of Nestlé’s ingredient supply.
  • Corporate Climate Leadership:
    This move positions Nestlé as a leader in tying net-zero goals to meaningful, nature-based actions.
  • Market Signal:
    Big corporate deals like this could drive more investment in restoration. This would boost Brazil’s carbon credit market and increase the supply of high-quality nature credits.

What Could Go Wrong? Nestlé’s Bold Step in Carbon Leadership

While this initiative is ambitious, its success depends on several factors. Tree survival over decades is crucial: saplings must grow, persist, and avoid being lost to fires or land-use changes. Long-term monitoring is needed to make sure the credits represent real removal.

Also, the permanence and additionality of the credits matter. Observers will watch how re.green, Nestlé, and their auditors ensure that the forest does not revert and that the project would not have happened without this financing.

Finally, the social dimension is important. Local communities must benefit, and land rights and governance issues should be handled transparently. Without community support, restoration projects often struggle.

Nestlé’s carbon credit deal with re.green and Barry Callebaut marks a significant and strategic step in its climate journey. Its net-zero strategy focuses on nature-based solutions, backed by careful accounting and long-term commitments. Public and private investors in Brazil’s carbon market are also backing this shift.

If the projects succeed, they could show big companies how to scale regenerative landscapes. This approach can help not only to offset emissions but also to build stronger business foundations.

The post Nestlé to Plant 11 Million Trees in Brazil to Generate Carbon Credits and Boost Sustainability appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Silver’s New Role in the Clean Energy Era – and What It Means for Sierra Madre Investors

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Silver’s New Role in the Clean Energy Era - and What It Means for Sierra Madre Investors

Disseminated on behalf of Sierra Madre Gold & Silver Ltd.

Silver is prized for its beauty and use in jewellery, but its true value today lies in technology. Silver is now a key material as the world shifts to renewable energy, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics. Its high conductivity and reflectivity make it essential for solar panels, EV batteries, and 5G networks.

For investors, this shift marks a new chapter for the silver market – one driven less by fashion and more by function. Companies like Sierra Madre Gold & Silver are ready to meet this growing demand for industrial and investment needs.

Rising Demand from the Green Transition

The clean energy transition is rapidly changing how silver is used. The Silver Institute reports that global silver demand hit a record 1.2 billion ounces in 2024. More than 30 percent of this was for industrial uses, mainly in solar power and electronics. That figure is set to rise as countries expand renewable energy capacity.

In 2024, industrial silver use hit an all-time high of 680.5 million ounces, driven by solar manufacturing, electric vehicles, and electronics. Solar energy alone now accounts for more than 30 percent of industrial demand. 

silver demand from solar 2030

Each photovoltaic (PV) panel has 15–25 grams of silver. By 2030, solar installations may top 500 gigawatts each year. This could mean the sector needs 250 million ounces of silver annually.

Electric vehicles are another major source of growth. A single EV uses up to 50 grams of silver, roughly twice that of a traditional car. As production expands, the automotive sector’s silver demand could triple by 2030.

These trends are tightening the global silver market. Inventories are falling, and analysts warn of persistent supply deficits through the end of the decade.

The Supply Challenge: Falling Mine Output

While demand surges, mine output is not keeping pace. The Silver Institute estimates global silver production at about 819.7 million ounces in 2024, up less than 1 percent from the previous year. 

Even with this small rise, the world will have a 117.6 million-ounce supply deficit in 2025. This shows ongoing long-term shortages.

Silver Supply and Demand

Mexico remains the world’s largest silver producer, contributing about 23 percent of global output. But much of this comes from aging or polymetallic mines, where silver is a by-product. New producers like Sierra Madre Gold & Silver attract investors. They blend modern exploration with production. This is happening in one of the richest silver belts on Earth.

Sierra Madre’s Portfolio: Reviving Proven Silver Assets

Sierra Madre Gold & Silver Ltd. (TSXV: SM, OTCQX: SMDRF) is advancing two key projects in Mexico’s Sierra Madre mineral belt: La Guitarra and Tepic. Together, they represent a blend of production and exploration upside.

Sierra Madre Gold & Silver projects
Source: Sierra Madre Gold & Silver
  • La Guitarra Mine (State of Mexico):
    La Guitarra, acquired from First Majestic Silver Corp., is a fully permitted and producing underground operation. It already has processing infrastructure in place. The company reached commercial production at 500 tonnes per day in January 2025, with plans to expand to up to 1,500 tonnes per day by 2027. La Guitarra could restore one of Mexico’s best-known silver mines to its former prominence.
  • Tepic Project (Nayarit):
    Tepic is a high-grade epithermal gold-silver deposit. It has near-surface mineralization, which means there’s great exploration potential. This also allows for options for future growth.

Sierra Madre cuts costs and timeline risks by targeting assets with established infrastructure and clear development paths. This approach is safer than working with early-stage explorers.

Positioned for the New Industrial Cycle

The global shift to cleaner energy sources is reshaping the silver market into something closer to a strategic commodity. Governments and industries now view silver as vital to achieving energy-transition goals. As demand outpaces supply, producers with near-term restart potential stand to benefit most.

Sierra Madre fits neatly into that narrative. The La Guitarra project has restarted production much quicker than greenfield developments. Those often need years for permits and construction. At the same time, its exploration project adds scalability and long-term growth potential.

Mexico has a strong mining infrastructure and a skilled workforce. It’s also close to North American industrial hubs. This gives Sierra Madre a big logistical advantage. The U.S. is putting policies in place to secure supply chains for key materials. This makes Mexico a more important and reliable supplier.

Market Dynamics: Silver as a Strategic Metal

Silver’s 2025 price action underscores profound shifts in its role within both industrial and investment spheres. After climbing nearly 25 percent year-to-date, silver shattered previous records by reaching its all-time high of $54.24 per ounce in October before correcting and settling in the high-$40 range. 

Major analysts such as Metals Focus project that prices could breach the US$60 mark by late 2026 if current supply deficits and clean energy demand trends persist, citing strong industrial momentum – particularly in solar and electronics – as critical drivers.

Silver Spot Price
Source: Bloomberg

Supporting this rally, silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) absorbed 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, pushing global holdings to 1.13 billion ounces – just 7 percent below their all-time peak. 

According to data from the World Silver Survey 2025, industrial fabrication demand reached a new record of 680.5 million ounces in 2024, maintaining upward momentum through 2025. The supply side remains structurally tight: analysts project a market deficit of roughly 149 million ounces this year, marking five consecutive years where demand has outpaced annual mine production.

Why Sierra Madre Stands Out

  • Production: La Guitarra restart completed, targeting output ramp-up in 2026 and 2027.
  • High-Quality Assets: Two projects in Mexico’s most productive silver-gold belt.
  • Operational Readiness: A fully permitted plant and infrastructure at La Guitarra reduced start-up costs.
  • Strong Market Tailwinds: Silver demand from solar, EVs, and electronics continues to set records.
  • Experienced Leadership: Proven management team with expertise in Mexican mining operations.

These factors make Sierra Madre a unique mix of production, exploration, and expansion potential, and access to one of the fastest-growing industrial metals globally.

A New Chapter for Silver – and for Sierra Madre

Silver’s growing role in the clean-energy transition marks a turning point for the mining industry. Once seen mainly as a precious metal, it is now a cornerstone of the technologies driving global decarbonization.

Sierra Madre Gold & Silver is one of the few junior miners that successfully restarted a permitted mine in Mexico’s silver heartland and is planning a near-term expansion. This positions them well to benefit from the current structural shift. With rising demand and limited supply, the company is ready to continue with its strategy for La Guitarra. This move connects Mexico’s rich mining history with a clean-energy future.

DISCLAIMER 

New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com (“We” or “Us”) are not securities dealers or brokers, investment advisers, or financial advisers, and you should not rely on the information herein as investment advice. Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. (“Company”) made a one-time payment of $25,000 to provide marketing services for a term of one month. None of the owners, members, directors, or employees of New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com currently hold, or have any beneficial ownership in, any shares, stocks, or options of the companies mentioned.

This article is informational only and is solely for use by prospective investors in determining whether to seek additional information. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular issuer from one referenced date to another represent arbitrarily chosen time periods and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that issuer and are of no predictive value.

Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for your further investigation; they are not stock recommendations or an offer or sale of the referenced securities. The securities issued by the companies we profile should be considered high-risk; if you do invest despite these warnings, you may lose your entire investment. Please do your own research before investing, including reviewing the companies’ SEDAR+ and SEC filings, press releases, and risk disclosures.

It is our policy that the information contained in this profile was provided by the company, extracted from SEDAR+ and SEC filings, company websites, and other publicly available sources. We believe the sources and information are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee them.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT AND FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Certain statements contained in this news release may constitute “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking information generally can be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “plan,” and similar expressions suggesting future outcomes or events. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations of management; however, it is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

These factors include, without limitation, statements relating to the Company’s exploration and development plans, the potential of its mineral projects, financing activities, regulatory approvals, market conditions, and future objectives. Forward-looking information involves numerous risks and uncertainties, and actual results might differ materially from results suggested in any forward-looking information. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market volatility, the state of financial markets for the Company’s securities, fluctuations in commodity prices, operational challenges, and changes in business plans.

Forward-looking information is based on several key expectations and assumptions, including, without limitation, that the Company will continue with its stated business objectives and will be able to raise additional capital as required. Although management of the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated, or intended.

There can be no assurance that such forward-looking information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Additional information about risks and uncertainties is contained in the Company’s management’s discussion and analysis and annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2024, copies of which are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

The forward-looking information contained herein is expressly qualified in its entirety by this cautionary statement. Forward-looking information reflects management’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to the Company. The forward-looking information is made as of the date of this news release, and the Company assumes no obligation to update or revise such information to reflect new events or circumstances except as may be required by applicable law.

For more information on the Company, investors should review the Company’s continuous disclosure filings available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.


Disclosure: Owners, members, directors, and employees of carboncredits.com have/may have stock or option positions in any of the companies mentioned: None.

Carboncredits.com receives compensation for this publication and has a business relationship with any company whose stock(s) is/are mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: This communication serves the sole purpose of adding value to the research process and is for information only. Please do your own due diligence. Every investment in securities mentioned in publications of carboncredits.com involves risks that could lead to a total loss of the invested capital.

Please read our Full RISKS and DISCLOSURE here.

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Indonesia Aims to Sell $1B Carbon Credits at COP30, While Other Countries Step Up Their Carbon Plans

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Indonesia Aims to Sell $1B Carbon Credits at COP30, While Other Countries Step Up Their Carbon Plans

Indonesia is making one of the biggest moves at COP30 in Belém, Brazil. The government aims to reach about US$1 billion (Rp 16 trillion) in carbon credit deals during the summit. The plan includes around 90 million tonnes of carbon credits from forestry, energy, and industry projects.

This goal is part of a wider plan to grow Indonesia’s carbon trading system. It follows new rules under Presidential Regulation No. 110 of 2025 on carbon economic value. It also comes after the country allowed international carbon trading again, following a four-year pause. These steps show that Indonesia wants to become a major player in climate finance and green investment in Asia.

At COP30, other countries are also stepping up their climate plans and carbon market initiatives. Nations like Brazil, Iraq, Singapore, Kenya, and the United Kingdom unveiled new projects, partnerships, and rules to boost verified carbon trading and ensure benefits reach local communities.

Building Stronger Rules and Partnerships

Indonesia used COP30 to prove it can build a fair and trusted carbon market system. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry introduced four new rules to improve how projects are managed and approved. The changes aim to make sure that money from carbon sales reaches local people, including indigenous groups.

To raise global trust, Indonesia signed new partnerships with leading organizations. It formed a Mutual Recognition Agreement with Verra, one of the world’s biggest carbon credit certifiers. This deal allows up to 50 million tonnes of CO₂ credits to enter global markets.

Indonesia also signed a memorandum of understanding with the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM). This will help the country follow global standards for transparency and quality.

Indonesia is presenting 40 carbon projects at COP30. These include forest recovery work, renewable energy plants, and waste reduction programs. Together, they could generate more than 90 million credits once fully certified.

Officials see this as part of a long-term plan. The Forestry Ministry estimates that Indonesia’s carbon credit potential could reach 13.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ by 2050. That could bring yearly income of $2.8 billion to $8.6 billion, depending on carbon prices.

Indonesia’s carbon market potential
Source: PwC

Economic gains and environmental wins

Government estimates show that Indonesia can cut emissions by 31.8% on its own and by 43.2% with global support. Carbon trading could help meet these goals by linking domestic projects with international buyers.

Indonesia’s projects range from mangrove restoration to geothermal power and the low-carbon industry. This diversity makes the country one of Asia’s most promising suppliers of carbon credits. However, success will depend on good governance, fair profit-sharing, and public trust.

If Indonesia reaches its US$1 billion target, it would be one of the largest carbon trade achievements for a developing nation. It could also inspire other countries in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, to follow similar paths.

Global Carbon Moves at COP30: What Other Countries Are Doing

Indonesia is not alone in expanding carbon markets. At COP30, several other countries also announced new plans to link climate action with trade and investment.

Brazil, the host nation, launched an Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets. The group now includes 11 countries, such as China, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and members of the European Union.

The coalition wants to connect national markets and create shared standards for tracking and reporting emissions. It also aims to stop “double-counting” of credits and make global trading more transparent.

Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets overview
Source: COP30 website

Brazil is working on its own national cap-and-trade system that will cover energy, transport, and industry. Officials say the plan will help the country use its vast forests to generate high-quality credits. They also promise that indigenous and local communities will share in the profits from these projects.

In the Middle East, Iraq announced its first national carbon market during COP30. This is a big shift for a country still dependent on oil and gas. Iraq plans to use carbon market funds to support renewable energy, modernize infrastructure, and cut emissions from heavy industry. It hopes to attract international investors to help build new low-carbon projects.

  • Meanwhile, the United Kingdom, Kenya, and Singapore launched a joint campaign to grow corporate demand for trustworthy carbon credits. Their goal is to set clear rules for how companies buy carbon offsets and ensure that every credit represents a real emissions cut.

Singapore is already one of Asia’s key carbon market hubs. It runs the Climate Impact X exchange and has signed several carbon trade deals under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The country acts as a bridge between credit producers in Southeast Asia and buyers in major financial markets.

Kenya is focusing on fairness and inclusion. It wants to make sure that African countries and local communities get a fair share of income from carbon projects. The country is building its own carbon credit export system based on lessons from other African nations.

Together, these efforts show that countries are now moving from promises to action. Each one is shaping its carbon market plan based on its strengths—Brazil’s forests, Singapore’s financial networks, Iraq’s energy sector, and Indonesia’s vast natural resources.

A Growing Global Network, Despite Challenges

Even as interest grows, carbon markets face challenges. Some projects have been criticized for exaggerating their climate impact or failing to help local communities. These issues have raised doubts about the real value of some credits.

“High-integrity” carbon credits were a major topic at COP30. Many delegates agreed that only verified, transparent credits would attract global investors. But developing nations also want flexible rules so smaller projects can join the market more easily. Finding a balance between strong oversight and easy access will be crucial.

The nations’ various moves reflect a shift toward teamwork. Countries and companies are learning that trading carbon credits can support both climate goals and economic growth.

projected global carbon credit market 2050
Source: Data from MSCI Carbon Markets estimates

The chart above shows the projected global carbon credit market size from 2025 to 2050. The range shows lower and upper bounds for 2030 and 2050 only, reaching up to $250 billion by 2050 (in 2024 prices).

Growth depends on demand: high demand with loose supply drives the market upward, while low demand with loose supply results in the lower bound. The range widens significantly by 2050, reflecting uncertainty in future policy, technology, and corporate demand.

Indonesia’s $1 billion carbon-trade goal at COP30 shows how fast the global carbon market landscape is changing. The country’s mix of policy reforms, new partnerships, and project pipelines demonstrates leadership among developing nations.

At the same time, efforts by Brazil, Iraq, Singapore, Kenya, and the United Kingdom reveal a broader global trend. Carbon markets are no longer experimental—they are becoming a major part of climate finance.

If these systems stay transparent and fair, COP30 could mark the start of a new phase for global carbon trading, one where countries and companies work together to cut emissions and invest in carbon markets.

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