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Fernanda Ballesteros leads the Natural Resource Governance Institute’s work in Mexico and is part of the organization’s energy transition coordination group. 

Last week, Claudia Sheinbaum started her six-year term as Mexico’s president. Among great expectations for change, many are puzzling over how she might honour her background as a climate scientist while also upholding the legacy of her predecessor and ally Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

His administration doubled down on fossil fuel production and unconditionally picked up the tab for Pemex – Mexico’s national oil company – despite its debts exceeding $100 billion dollars, about 6% of Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product.

In her inauguration speech to Congress on Tuesday, Sheinbaum said: “National consumption will continue to be the fundamental objective of Pemex’s oil production, limited to production of 1.8 million barrels per day. We will promote energy efficiency and the transition to renewable energy sources to meet the growth in energy demand.” Can she and Mexico have their cake and eat it too?   

Sheinbaum has pledged to make Mexico a global leader in the fight against climate change and a champion of the energy transition. But her green ambitions are possibly at odds with some of her election promises.

Japan backs fossil fuels in Southeast Asian “zero emission” initiative

One of them was making Mexico self-sufficient in gasoline, which would require major investments in Pemex’s refining capacity. To date, this has not been a fruitful pursuit: Pemex’s Deer Park and Olmeca refineries represent over 90% of Pemex infrastructure spending from 2019 to 2024, and it is uncertain when Olmeca will begin to operate at full capacity.

Considering that Pemex is the world’s most indebted national oil company and that its financial woes are well known among investors and the Mexican public, Sheinbaum and her officials must explain as soon as possible their plans and demonstrate that they are viable. Justified scepticism abounds.   

In her favour, Sheinbaum has appointed an energy team including experts with a strong track-record of public service and good knowledge of the sector, such as the new energy minister and the CEOs of Pemex and the electricity commission.  Here are three steps she and her team should take now to ensure that Mexico improves its fiscal health and embarks on a meaningful energy transition.  

1.Reassess Pemex’s future production and business plans

According to our analysis, Pemex ranks 11th among the 58 national oil companiesin terms of financial risk from oil and gas assets that will lose value as the world transitions away from fossil fuels.

We found that approximately $10 billion in Pemex’s production assets would not break even under the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario.  Pemex must recognise this risk, come up with a solid plan to mitigate it, and publish it widely. 

Production has been dropping progressively since 2010 while also becoming more and more costly. Pemex has not been meeting its emission reduction targets and this is costing the company dearly in terms of access to finance and investor confidence.  

Diversifying Pemex’s business can be a solution. But how and where to diversify must be technically and financially viable. For example, if Pemex eyes petrochemicals as an option, it must consider that only 12% of current hydrocarbons demand goes to this sector and many companies are already pursuing it.   

2.Reduce Pemex’s operational greenhouse gas emissions

Despite a decline in overall production, emissions continue to rise significantly: 58% from 2012 to 2016 and 51% from 2018 to 2022. These spikes correlate with sharp rises in direct methane emissions, which tripled from 2012 to 2016 and nearly doubled from 2018 to 2022. These spikes correlate with sharp rises in direct methane emissions, which tripled from 2012 to 2016 and nearly doubled from 2018 to 2022.

Recent analysis from the Natural Resources Governance Institute (NRGI) suggests that accountability and governance are critical to achieve methane reductions. But the agencies that regulate Pemex have not had enough power to rein in the company. The new Government must empower the energy regulators to stand up to Pemex, have sufficient autonomy, capacity and budget to enforce the rules.

3. Develop and publish a full-scale energy transition plan

While her non-specific aspirations for a greener future seemed to resonate with voters, now that she is in office Sheinbaum must take a much more tactical and detailed position.

To achieve her climate and energy objectives, Sheinbaum will have to devise a credible and actionable strategy that phases out fossil fuels in Mexico, in a way that responds to the climate agenda and prioritizes the public purse.

Her plan must have Pemex at its core and address the company’s dire financial situation. She must also assign clear roles and responsibilities for Pemex and for the electricity commission, so their actions advance the energy transition based on a coordinated, integrated vision.  

Civil society organizations have been working on proposals to achieve a just energy transition that addresses national challenges. Through the México Resiliente coalition, of which NRGI is part, more than 30 organizations have developed the National Plan for Decarbonization and Climate Resilience 2024-2030, with specific recommendations for the new government. We hope Sheinbaum will take these on board and release Mexico from its dependency on its sputtering state oil company and fossil fuels.  

Pemex extracts 95% of the oil and gas in the country and 64% of Mexico’s emissions are tied to the energy sector. The bottom line for Sheinbaum’s climate ambitions is what happens at Pemex. 

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French court rules Total must revise climate plan to account for all emissions

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Amid an unprecedented European heatwave, a Paris court ruled today that France’s biggest fossil fuel firm TotalEnergies has not fully accounted for its contribution to climate change or identified all the ways it could limit it.

A group of non-profit organisations and local authorities filed the claim in 2020 under France’s then-new duty of vigilance law. This requires all large businesses headquartered in France and international corporations with a significant presence there to set out a clear plan to prevent human rights violations and environmental damage – even among their subsidiaries.

“It’s a very big win for the whole climate movement,” said Justine Ripoll, head of campaigns for Notre Affaire à Tous, one of the NGOs that brought the claim.

She said the judges made clear that companies have climate obligations reflecting their impact on global emissions, and added that the ruling shows “lobbying to undermine legislation won’t have the impact corporations could expect.”

The ruling marks another legal victory for climate activists, after the International Court of Justice issued a landmark advisory opinion last year finding that countries can be held responsible under international law for breaching their climate obligations, including by expanding fossil fuel production. In May, the UN General Assembly backed the ruling and called on countries to comply with it.

    Total’s climate lawsuit

    As part of their claim, climate activists and local authorities wanted the court to force TotalEnergies to take stronger action aligning with the 1.5°C warming threshold in the Paris Agreement, including by stopping new fossil fuel projects and reducing production levels.

    The lawsuit claim was ruled inadmissible in 2023, but this was overturned the following year. However no public bodies except the city of Paris were allowed to join. A court in Paris finally heard the claim on its merits in March.

    Two weeks before the hearing, the French public prosecutor’s office said it agreed with TotalEnergies that the scope of duty of vigilance law did not extend to climate change. But the court had a different view, saying climate risks and impacts do fall within the law’s scope.

    As Nigeria rails at loss and damage “mirage”, fund boss assures money is coming

    Coming two days after France recorded its hottest-ever day, the court said the law is not intended to make the companies concerned responsible for all climate risks – resulting from all human activity since the industrial revolution – but they must “act according to their situation”.

    In TotalEnergies’ case, its oil and gas activities release greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere with resulting negative climate impacts, which must be properly identified in its vigilance plan.

    The court also explicitly said that the plan must include scope 3 emissions from the use of products and services by customers, “due in particular to the inherent link between oil and gas production and the combustion of products by users”. This is in line with domestic and international court rulings across the world in recent years.

    TotalEnergies was given six months to update the plan. After that, the court will scrutinise whether the measures are adequate, with a hearing already scheduled for 21 January 2027.

    Milestone for climate accountability

    Théa Bonfour, senior advocacy and litigation officer at NGO Sherpa, which was also involved in the case, said it was a “first important milestone” but she warned that the tribunal will still have to exercise its power to analyse the plan’s details.

    However, the court did not agree to a request by the NGOs and the City of Paris for TotalEnergies to completely stop all of its new fossil fuel projects or to cut production by 37% for oil and 25% for gas by 2030.

    TotalEnergies was approached for comment but did not respond by the time of publication.

    The company could still appeal the decision but, even if it does, it still has to comply with the ruling while the process is ongoing.

    COP31 presidency ‘open’ to reflecting Santa Marta in UN climate process, ministers say

    Sébastien Duyck, senior attorney at the Center for International Environmental Law, said the ruling is a “key step towards stronger corporate climate accountability”.

    “The inclusion of the whole range of emissions attributable to TotalEnergies’ activities in the sphere of responsibility of the company is a critical legal step validating other recent judicial decisions,” said Duyck. “This constitutes a stringent rebuttal of the argument that the responsibility lies solely with consumers.”

    Christina Eckes, professor of European law at the University of Amsterdam, said the ruling had increased pressure on polluting companies to justify their business decisions.

    “It’s not just TotalEnergies. When you look at the sustainability plans of fossil fuel industries in Europe, they’re mostly scope 1 and 2; you can’t claim to have a sustainability plan if you’re only talking about 10% of your emissions.”

    Influential ruling

    The Total decision has significant implications for other ongoing lawsuits. 

    The most important is that brought by a Belgian farmer who is bringing a climate damages claim against TotalEnergies. A decision on the merits was postponed until 9 September so that judges could see the outcome of the French ruling.

    A separate duty of vigilance case against TotalEnergies in relation to the East African Crude Oil Pipeline in Uganda is still ongoing at the Paris Judicial Court, after a similar earlier claim was dismissed in 2023. The $4-billion project has been controversial due to its social and environmental impacts.

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    As Nigeria rails at loss and damage “mirage”, fund boss assures money is coming

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    After a four-year set up period, a fund to help vulnerable countries respond to climate impacts is facing criticism from Nigeria’s environment minister over delays in delivering aid, while its chief executive says the first disbursements will be made by the end of the year.

    At an event at London Climate Action Week on Tuesday, Nigerian environment minister Balarabe Abbas Lawal said that whenever he goes to UN climate summits “we talk about loss and damage funds, and all these years nothing has been translated into action”.

    He added that the fund currently “looks like a mirage”, and said that “a number of our governments are beginning to believe that COPs are just talk shops”.

    The idea of addressing the loss and damage caused by climate change was first discussed at COP13 in 2007. A fund was agreed to at COP27 in 2022 to help vulnerable countries respond to climate emergencies, and it was officially set up the next year. Since then, the fund’s board and management have been working out the details of how it will work.

    Ibrahima Cheikh Diong, a banker from Senegal, was appointed CEO in 2024. Referring to Lawal’s frustration, Diong told Climate Home News on Thursday that the fund is “moving according to plan”.

      A call for funding requests, launched at COP30, closed on June 15. Projects – including those to strengthen responses to floods in Bangladesh and Lagos and improve water infrastructure in Jamaica – bid for a combined $250 million. Diong said that the fund’s board would decide which projects to fund at its next board meeting in the Philippines, starting on July 8.

      “We hope that by the end of the year we can begin then to make the decision and see the funds going, so hopefully the frustration for Nigeria will be reduced”, he said, adding that “every time wasted, when it comes to loss and damage, is lives not saved”.

      Funding concerns

      While climate campaigners have called for tens of billion of dollars of funding a year, wealthy nations have promised the fund $822 million and delivered just $449 million – with countries like Italy, France and Luxembourg failing to pay in full.

      A briefing paper prepared by the fund’s secretariat earlier this year warned that, unless fresh contributions are secured, the fund could run out of resources by the end of 2027.

      New loss and damage fund boss urged to keep costs down
      Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage Executive Director Ibrahima Cheikh Diong at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 12, 2024 (Photo: IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis)

      Diong said that the fund intends to hold a replenishment round, where governments promise money, next year. In the meantime, as public finance “is being very difficult to mobilise”, the fund is looking at other sources of funding.

      “What exactly that source of funding will be, we have to look at the potential, look at the feasibility and so on”, he said, so the fund can keep up with demand.

      In an open letter in April, a group of climate campaigners called for developed countries to increase contributions to the Loss and Damage fund and introduce taxes on fossil fuel companies, financial transactions, luxury air travel and wealth to help finance it.

      “Rich countries must be held strictly accountable for the devastation they have caused,” said Climate Action Network International head Tasneem Essop. “Their failure to fulfill their responsibility to the loss and damage fund is not just an oversight; it is a shameful betrayal of humanity.”

      The post As Nigeria rails at loss and damage “mirage”, fund boss assures money is coming appeared first on Climate Home News.

      As Nigeria rails at loss and damage “mirage”, fund boss assures money is coming

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      China Briefing 25 June 2026: Five-year plans passed | Critical-mineral tensions | Industrial decarbonisation plan

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      Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

      China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

      Key developments

      New five-year plans

      GENERATION TARGET: China today released its 15th five-year plan for building a “new-type energy system”, according to finance news outlet Cailianshe. It said the plan covered topics including energy sources, power-market reform and China’s role in clean-energy supply chains and climate governance. The plan, published by the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that China will aim for clean energy to constitute 30% of power generation by 2030 – up from approximately 22% today. It also stated that wind and solar will become the “mainstay” of China’s power mix. The government will work to increase clean-energy consumption, such as by upgrading the grid to “accommodate” 900 gigawatts of distributed energy and promoting emerging solutions such as virtual power plants and hydrogen. The plan also urged the “strengthening” of coal’s role as a “bottom-line guarantee”.

      IN THE WORKS: At a meeting on 11 June, China’s State Council approved the “15th five-year plan for building a beautiful China”, reported industry news outlet BJX News. The meeting readout noted the importance of “actively address[ing] climate change” and developing “green production and lifestyles”, it added. The next day, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) approved a series of environment-related five-year plans, including the “15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change”, said business news outlet 21st Century Business Herald article. The full text of the plans is not yet available.

      JOBS AND GOVERNANCE: A separate five-year plan on employment included calls to “unlock employment potential” by developing “new energy system” projects, according to current affairs outlet China News. The government also published a white paper on global governance that said the “general public truly feels that nations are taking action and that unity can overcome any obstacle” to address climate change, reported state news agency Xinhua. It added that the paper called on developed countries to “honor their commitments” on climate finance. Foreign minister Wang Yi said in a press conference that China aims to “innovate governance mechanisms” to address issues such as how countries can “achieve” a global low-carbon transition, Xinhua also reported.

      Critical mineral barbs

      REDUCE DEPENDENCIES: The Group of Seven (G7) major economies have stated that “no single country should supply more than 60% of their imports of rare earths”, reported Bloomberg, in “an effort to reduce their reliance on China”. The full communique, which does not mention China by name, said that diversifying supply chains was “urgen[t]”, due to “market concentration”, the “growing use of arbitrary trade restrictions” and the need to “reduce vulnerabilities”. In response, China’s foreign ministry urged the G7 to “stop disrupting the international trade order” with “self-made rules”.

      EXPORTS BLOCKED: The Indonesian government’s new nickel production quotas and pricing rules could put $50bn of Chinese investment at risk, Chinese diplomats argued in a letter covered by the Financial Times. Lithium miners in Zimbabwe, including Chinese firms, are asking for more time to build local processing facilities ahead of a 2027 lithium concentrate export ban, said Reuters. Meanwhile, China restricted trade with two US rare-earth companies, in response to the US adding companies including CATL and BYD to a “blacklist”, said the Financial Times. China’s exports to Japan of rare earths used to make permanent magnets remain “negligible”, reported Reuters.

      DIALOGUE URGED: EU member states have asked the European Commission to develop new trade instruments to deal with the “economic threat” posed by China, reported the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. Despite “combative rhetoric” ahead of the summit, the Financial Times reported that the 27 leaders opted for dialogue rather than immediate action to address “global macroeconomic imbalances”. Separately, the European Commission plans to impose tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, reported German business newspaper Handelsblatt.

      CLIMATE MINISTERIAL: The EU, China and Canada held a climate ministerial, in which Chinese environment minister Huang Runqiu said countries “must strengthen cooperation rather than retreat from it”, said Euronews. Climate outlet Tanpaifang reported that Huang also said COP31 should address “insufficient emission reduction efforts and financial support from developed countries”. According to a European Commission transcript, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said: “We need to act for climate, but also for competitiveness and independence. We cannot afford to depend on third countries.”

      Mandatory targets for energy users

      NEW TARGETS: From August, the Chinese government will “set binding targets” for companies on how much low-carbon power and non-electric energy they must consume, said Bloomberg. It added that targets will be set for how much low-carbon power provinces must absorb into their grids. Provinces and “key energy-consuming industries” will see their uptake of clean energy monitored on a quarterly basis and be subject to annual assessments by the State Council, said industry news outlet International Energy Net.

      END-USER PRESSURE: The announcement marks the first time that China has established targets for non-fossil energy consumption at the “end-user level”, reported economic news outlet Jiemian. It added that the previous system, which only covered power, placed the responsibility for absorbing renewable energy into the grid “primarily” onto local governments and power grid companies.

      SUPPORTING THE MARKET: The new measures will “help address grid integration challenges and promote better utilisation of renewable energy”, an official at the National Energy Administration told reporters, according to Xinhua. The official said it would also help boost demand for other low-carbon industries, such as “green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol”. Liu Guobin, vice-president of the China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute said in an “explanation” posted on International Energy Net that the measures would also “convey clear…expectations to the market” for the long-term outlook for renewable energy, “guiding the rational allocation of investment”.

      More China news

      • BECALMED: China’s thermal power generation rose 2.1% year-on-year in May, as “lower wind speeds curbed renewable energy growth”, reported Reuters.
      • TRUCK TARGET: The government issued a new plan for developing “new-energy heavy duty trucks (HDTs)” that aims to have sales of electric, hydrogen and other low-carbon HDTs account for 40% of new truck sales by 2030, said Xinhua.
      • SUPERMASSIVE SYSTEM: China’s total power capacity reached 4,000 gigawatts in May, reported BJX News, larger than that of the US, EU, India, Russia and Japan combined. Coal’s share of the capacity mix fell to 32%, while the non-fossil share rose to 62%.
      • EXPORT DRIVER: China’s exports of electric vehicles (EVs) rose 54% year-on-year in May to $10bn by value and lithium-battery exports “rose 37% to $8bn”, but solar cell exports fell 7% by value to $2bn, said Caixin. The thinktank Ember found that Chinese EV exports to south-east Asia, particularly Thailand and the Philippines, reached an “all-time high” of $1.2bn.
      • ONGOING RISK: The heavy rainfall seen throughout June, as well as drought, is likely to continue during China’s flood season, said the Ministry of Emergency Management in comments covered by Jiemian
      • PROJECTION PUSHBACK: The China Energy Research Society’s Wang Weiquan described projections by BloombergNEF of China’s emissions reduction and share of coal in the power mix as “overly optimistic” and “even radical”, according to the state-run newspaper China Daily.

      Spotlight 

      What is in China’s new three-year action plan for industry?

      China has issued a new action plan for energy conservation and reducing carbon emissions across nine heavy industries.

      In this issue, Carbon Brief examines how the plan will impact China’s industrial development and decarbonisation.

      China will conduct an “intensive campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades” across heavy industry between 2026 and 2028.

      The plan targets nine key industries: steel; electrolytic aluminum; cement; flat glass; oil refining; ethylene; synthetic ammonia; methanol; and coal-fired power.

      After 2028, it said that production capacity that does not meet efficiency standards will be phased out and that efforts will be broadened to other industries.

      Combined, power and industry make up the vast majority of China’s emissions profile.

      Emissions in some of these sectors – notably, steel and cement – have been falling. However, chemical-industry emissions have experienced double-digit growth.

      China’s power sector, which generates the majority of its electricity through coal, is responsible for around 40% of the country’s total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

      Focused on efficiency

      The plan outlined several measures for companies to take to reduce their energy use and emissions profile.

      According to a Carbon Brief count, the majority are focused on energy efficiency, such as promoting high-efficiency industrial processes and upgrading energy-consuming equipment.

      More than 70% of China’s steel, aluminium, cement and flat glass capacity does not meet energy efficiency benchmarks, said a government official in a Q&A published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

      Yang Zhou, senior advisor China at Agora Energiewende, told Carbon Brief that the policy will “pick the last lowest hanging fruit” in terms of eliminating low-efficiency capacity. After this, she said, the focus will turn to entering a “deep-water” phase of decarbonising industrial capacity, as well as making it more efficient.

      Some of the measures that companies are encouraged to take in the plan do directly link to decarbonisation. These include developing “hydrogen metallurgy” and sourcing low-carbon materials and fuels, as well as increasing electrification and renewable power usage.

      The coal-power industry should improve flexibility, decouple combined heat and power operations and integrate biomass and renewable energy into their operations, it said.

      Coal plants are expected to reduce coal consumption per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity by “at least five grams of standard coal” and carbon emissions per kWh by 10%-20%, if not more.

      The document said that the share of coal-fired power capacity that meets energy efficiency benchmarks should improve by 15 percentage points by 2028. This rises to 20 percentage points for the other eight industries.

      By 2028, according to the NDRC, the plan aims to cut energy use by more than 100m tonnes of standard coal per year and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 200m tonnes.

      Supporting business

      Companies will receive support from the central government, which will subsidise 20% of the total investment that “approved” projects require.

      Provinces should “fully leverage” pricing mechanisms to encourage retrofitting, said the policy.

      Local policymakers can now add a surcharge of up to 0.1 yuan ($0.15) per kWh to market-traded electricity prices for non-compliant producers – which finance outlet Caixin said was a “central” tool for enforcement.

      The South China Morning Post quoted an unnamed analyst, however, saying the policy may not “deliver its intended effects”, as some industries still receive subsidised electricity from local governments.

      Companies will also be able to use verified CO2 emission reductions from approved projects to “offset” emissions from “new, renovated or expanded” dual-high projects. For industries covered by China’s carbon market, this may be formalised in their emissions allowances.

      The NDRC official said that support should be provided to “ensure they receive reasonable returns on their carbon emission allowances”.

      The policy “seeks to strike a balance” between energy security and climate goals, rejecting the “radical thinking of ‘one-size-fits-all shutdowns and phase-outs’”, according to a widely-read commentary by Sprinting Power Worker, a “self-media” WeChat account.

      “For industries such as coal power, steel and cement, a gradual capacity reduction is expected due to market forces,” said Yang. She added:

      “For growing sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals, China’s strategy is to expand capacity, [albeit] increasingly concentrated, scaled-up and efficient. Continued decarbonisation will require large-scale deployment of solutions like electrification, green power-green hydrogen coupling and circular economy.”

      Watch, read, listen

      SULPHURIC SLOWDOWN: Rhodium Group published an analysis of how China’s efforts to restrict exports of sulphuric acid could impact global electrification efforts.

      ARCTIC ACTIVITY: The Circumpolar podcast explored the variety of interests, including energy and the environment, driving China’s actions in the Arctic.

      TRANSITION IN NUMBERS: Thinktank Agora Energiewende hosted a webinar on its new report, which outlined key trends in China’s energy transition.

      CARBON TAX: The Center for Strategic and International Studies looked into how China is responding to the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism.


      4.9%

      The amount by which China’s oil consumption is expected to fall in 2026 compared to the year before, according to a report by a thinktank under oil giant PetroChina, covered by Reuters. It said the decline is due to the “pivot to new energy and high ​oil prices due to the Iran war”, according to the report.


      New science

      • Economically developed Chinese cities “transferred” 42% of their greenhouse gas emissions related to plug-in electric vehicles to less developed cities in 2020, “substantially increasing” the recipients’ climate mitigation costs | Nature Cities
      • Renewable energy development “significantly reduces” urban-rural income inequality in Chinese cities | World Development
      • Grain trading between Chinese provinces increased more than fivefold between 1980 and 2020 and production shifted northward, driving a more than 217% increase in “embodied nitrogen losses and greenhouse gas emissions” | Nature Food

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      China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu. It is edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

      The post China Briefing 25 June 2026: Five-year plans passed | Critical-mineral tensions | Industrial decarbonisation plan appeared first on Carbon Brief.

      China Briefing 25 June 2026: Five-year plans passed | Critical-mineral tensions | Industrial decarbonisation plan

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