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LM Wind Power Cuts 60% of Denmark Staff
The crew discusses LM Wind Power’s dramatic layoff of 60% of remaining Danish staff, dropping from 90 to just 31 workers. What does this mean for thousands of wind farms with LM blades? Is government intervention possible? Who might acquire the struggling blade manufacturer? Plus, a preview of the Wind Energy O&M Australia 2026 conference in Melbourne this February.
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If you haven’t downloaded your latest edition of PES Wind Magazine, now’s the time issue four for 2025. It’s the last issue for 2025 is out and I just received mine in the Royal Mail. I had a brief time to review some of the articles inside of this issue. Tremendous content, uh, for the end of the year.
Uh, you wanna sit down and take a good long read. There’s plenty of articles that affect what you’re doing in your wind business, so it’s been a few moments. Go to peswind.com Download your free copy and read it today. You’re listening to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast, brought to you by build turbines.com.
Learn, train, and be a part of the Clean Energy Revolution. Visit build turbines.com today. Now here’s your hosts, Alan Hall, Joel Saxon, Phil Totaro, and Rosemary Barnes. Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy [00:01:00]Podcast. I’m your host, Alan Hall in the Queen city of Charlotte, North Carolina. I’ve got Yolanda Padron in Texas.
Joel Saxon up in Wisconsin and Rosemary Barnes down under in Australia, and it has been a, a really odd Newsweek. There is a slow down happening in wind. Latest news from Ella Wind Power is they’re gonna lay off about 60% of their staff in Denmark. They’ve only have about 90 employees there at the moment.
Which is a dramatic reduction of what that company once was. Uh, so they’re planning to lay off about 59 of the 90 workers that are still there. Uh, the Danish media is reporting. There’s a lot of Danish media reporting on this at the moment. Uh, there’s a letter that was put out by Ellen Windpower and it discusses that customers have canceled orders and are moving, uh, their blade production to internal factories.
And I, I assume. That’s a [00:02:00] GE slash Siemens effort that is happening, uh, that’s affecting lm and customers are willing to pay prices that make it possible to run the LM business profitably. Uh, the company has also abandoned all efforts on large blades because I, I assume just because they don’t see a future in it for the time being now, everybody is wondering.
How GE Renova is involved in this because they still do own LM wind power. It does seem like there’s two pieces to LM at the minute. One that serves GE Renova and then the another portion of the company that’s just serving outside customers. Uh, so far, if, if you look at what GE Renova paid for the company and what revenue has been brought in, GE Renova has lost about 8.3 billion croner, which is a little over a billion dollars since buying the company in 2017.
So it’s never really been. Hugely profitable over that time. And remember a few months ago, maybe a month ago now, or two months ago, the CEO of LM [00:03:00] Windpower left the company. Uh, and I now everyone, I’m not sure what the future is for LM Windpower, uh, because it’s, it has really dramatically shrunk. It’s down to what, like 3000 total employees?
I think they were up at one point to a little over when Rosie was there, about 14,000 employees. What has happened? Maybe Rosemary, you should start since you were working there at one point.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I dunno. It always makes me really sad and there’s still a few people that I used to work with that were there when I went to Denmark in May and caught up with a bunch of, um, my old colleagues and most of them had moved on because a lot of firing had already happened by that point.
But there were still a few there, but the mood was pretty despondent and I think that they guessed that this was coming. But I just find it really hard to see how with the number, just the pure number of people that are left there. I, I find it really hard to see how they can even support what they’ve still [00:04:00] got in the field.
Um. Let alone like obviously they cut way back on manufacturing. Okay. Cut Way back on developing new products. Okay. But you still do need some capabilities to work through warranty claims and um, you know, and any kind of serial issues. Yeah, I would be worried about things like, um, you know, from time to time you need a new, a new blade or a new set of blades produced.
Maybe a lot of them, you know, if you discover an issue, there’s a serial defect that doesn’t, um, become obvious until 10 years into the turbine’s lifetime. You might need to replace a whole bunch of blades and are you gonna be able to, like, what’s, what is gonna happen to this huge number of assets that are out there with LM blades on there?
Uh, I, yeah, I, I would really like to see some announcements about what they’re keeping, you know, what functionality they’re planning to keep and what they’re planning to excise.
Joel Saxum: But I mean, at the end of the day, if it’s, if [00:05:00] the business is not profitable to run that they have no. Legal standing to have to stay open?
Rosemary Barnes: No, no, of course not. We all know that there, there’s, you know, especially like you go through California, there’s all sorts of coast turbines there that nobody knows how to maintain them anymore. Right. And, um, yeah, and, and around there was one in, um, in Texas as well with some weird kind of gearbox. I can’t remember what exactly, but yeah, like the company went bankrupt, no one knew what to do with them, so they just, you know, like fell into disrepair and couldn’t be used anymore.
’cause if you can’t. Operate them safely, then you can’t let no one, the government is not gonna let you just, you know, just. Try your luck, operate them until rotors start flying off. You know, like that’s not really how it works. So yeah, I do think that like you, you can’t just stay silent about, um, what you expect to happen because you know, like maybe I have just done some, a bit of catastrophizing and, you know, finding worst case scenarios, but that is where your mind naturally goes.
And the absence of information about what you can expect, [00:06:00] then that’s what. People are naturally gonna do what I’ve just done and just think through, oh, you know, what, what could this mean for me? It might be really bad. So, um, yeah, it is a little bit, a little bit interesting.
Allen Hall: Delamination and bottom line, failures and blades are difficult problems to detect early.
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Miss C-I-C-N-D-T Maps. Every critical defect delivers actionable reports and provides support to get your blades. Back in service, so visit cic ndt.com because catching blade problems early will save you millions. Yolanda, what are asset managers [00:07:00] thinking about the LM changes as they proceed with orders and think about managing their LM Blade fleet over the next couple of years, knowing that LM is getting much smaller Quicker?
Yolanda Padron: Yeah, and this all comes at a time when. A lot of projects are reaching the end of the full service agreements that they had with some of these OEMs, right? So you already know that your risk profile is increasing. You already know. I mean, like Rosie, you said worst case scenario, you have a few years left before you don’t know what to do with some of the issues that are being presented.
Uh, because you don’t count with that first line of support that you typically would in this industry. It’s really important to be able to get a good mix of the technical and the commercial. Right? We’ve all seen it, and of course, we’re all a little bit biased because we’re all engineers, right? So we, to us it makes a lot of sense to go over the engineering route.
But the pendulum swung, swung so [00:08:00] far towards the commercial for Ella, the ge, that it just, it. They were always thinking about, or it seemed from an outsider’s point of view, right, that they were always thinking about, how can I get the easiest dollar today without really thinking about, okay, five 10 steps in the future, what’s going to happen to my business model?
Like, will this be sustainable? It did Just, I don’t know, it seems to me like just letting go of so many engineers and just going, I know Rosie, you mentioned a couple of podcasts ago about how they just kept on going from like Gen A to Gen B, to Gen C, D, and then it just, without really solving any problems initially.
Like, it, it, it was just. It’s difficult for me to think that nobody in those leadership positions thought about what was gonna happen in the [00:09:00]future.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. I think it was about day-to-day survival. ’cause I was definitely there like saying, you know, there’s too many, um, technical problems that Yeah. When I was saying that a hundred, a hundred of versions of me were all saying that, a lot of us were saying it.
Just in the cafeteria amongst ourselves. And a lot of us, uh, you know, a bit more outspoken Danish people don’t really believe a lot in a strict hierarchy. So certainly people were saying it to directors and VPs and CEOs, but, um, yeah, it was, uh, I think it was more about like the commercial reality of today is that there won’t be a commercial.
Tomorrow to experience these engineering problems if we don’t make these, um, decisions. Now, if, if that makes sense. As a really complicated way of saying we need to be able to sell this product, otherwise we’re not gonna sell anything. And then no one will be, no one will have a job in 10 years regardless.
So. We’ll solve, you know, whatever quality problems that arise from doing too many new technologies at once, at [00:10:00] least we’ll be, the company will still exist to be able to have a go at solving them if we, you know, make these sales. Um, which it won’t if we don’t. So I think that that would be the, like the other point of view, like it’s really easy to say now, oh yeah, we should have, um, we shouldn’t have done that, but yeah, I, I’m pretty sure management’s gonna tell you why they did it is for the sales.
Joel Saxum: This is an odd case being lm an ex Danish company now owned by GE Renova, which is a US based company.
Allen Hall: Global.
Joel Saxum: Global really. But yeah, but when we get into this, too big to fail type thing, right? So like Siemens cesa, having the German government back them up with a note, um, when they were having troubles a year and a half ago.
Uh. Is there a award like the too big to fail in the United States where the government bailed out the auto worker or the auto manufacturers and stuff like that. I don’t see that happening here because the company’s too small. But at what level do governments [00:11:00] intervene? Right? So it’s, I know every government’s gonna be different and every, but there’s have their own criteria and there’s not a hard set, probably line or metric of like, oh, you have this much impact on society, so we must support you to make sure you survive.
Well, when Rosemary, when you say like in, when you were there, you were there five years ago, 2020, right before COVID. Right. At that point in time, 20% of the world’s blades were LM blades of the global fleet. Well, if that’s was true still, that would be a hundred thousand plus turbines in the global fleet.
That would be LM blades. And if we have. Issues with them and we can’t solve them. I think one, one of the, one of the things that we’re, that we’re probably thankful for is there is that many, so there has been a lot of independent engineering expertise that’s been able to fix some of them. A lot of independent ISPs, you know, out there, service companies, blade repair companies that have been able to figure out how to make these things even, you know, regardless of getting the layup pattern or layup designs or any kind of engineering information from, from Malam [00:12:00] or from the OEMs.
Um, we have been able to maintain them, so that’s good. But is there a level where, I know Alan, you were shaking your head, but is there a level where anybody steps in from a government standpoint to save lm?
Allen Hall: I would almost bet that Renova has talked to the Danish government. Somebody at LM has, I would have to think that they have already.
And has been, at least in the press, no response. And with this latest announcement, it doesn’t seem like the Danish government wants to be involved. So my, my take on it is they have an American stamp on ’em right now, and Denmark and the United States are not playing nice to one another. So why would I help ge?
Why would I do that? And that’s not a bad response.
Rosemary Barnes: Potentially it wouldn’t even have to be necessarily the US or the Danish government that might have to get involved, because I know in Australia, and I’m, I can’t believe it’s different anywhere else. You have to be able to safely operate, uh, an asset like a, a wind turbine.
And that’s, um, some, [00:13:00] a responsibility of both the asset owner and the operator, but also the manufacturer and so they can compel to provide the information that you need to operate safely. I’ve always wondered how, um, ’cause you know, all the OEMs not talking, uh, LM or GE specifically here, they, they don’t really give away enough information to, um, operate assets safely, in my opinion.
So that is the key thing that you just, you can’t lose otherwise. You’re going to end up with blades that have to be scrapped or that you have to, you know, guess that it’s probably okay and then see how it goes. And, you know, that’s. Good a lot of the time, but it’s, it’s gonna make things less safe into the future.
You would expect to see more blade failures if you saw that happening a lot. So, you know, I would at least wanna make sure that you’re keeping, keeping people, keeping those models and keeping the people that know how to run them. Enough of them around. [00:14:00] Or making them publicly available.
Allen Hall: Don’t miss the UK Offshore Wind Supply Chain Spotlight 2025 in Edinburg on December 11th.
Over 550 delegates and 100 exhibitors will be at this game changing event. Connect with decision makers, explore market ready innovations and secure the partnerships to accelerate your growth. Register now and take your place at the center of the UK’s offshore Wind future. Just visit supply chain spotlight.co.uk and register today.
How soon before ING Yang puts in an offer to buy LM and or TPI? That’s gonna happen in the next six months. It has to.
Joel Saxum: What about instead of buying the factory, what if someone rises from the ashes and just buys the molds?
Allen Hall: I think you have to eat the workers. I think that’s gonna be the trouble,
Joel Saxum: but I don’t think you want them.
Allen Hall: Wow. That’s a hot take.
Joel Saxum: But honestly, like the quality coming out now, and I’ll, and I will caveat this as well, the [00:15:00] quality is not their, the quality is not all their fault. The quality of some respects is the way it was designed for manufacturing. But there is issues that we have seen and has been, have been uncovered that have been in the news, in the, in the free press that show that stuff happening in factories that shouldn’t be happening.
So do you actually want that or do you, this is why I say someone rises from the ashes and, and or, and creates something with a bunch of inco, you know, like knowing the pitfalls and the, the, the things that have happened that are bad, the things that can go well that are good. You know, when we talk to some of the people in the industry that have been around blade manufacturing, and they, and they have told us, man, we’ve seen.
Quality, uh, control mechanisms thrown on the shelves, even though we know they work just because people, defactor didn’t wanna use them for whatever reason. I don’t, you know, you don’t know, um, whether it’s inspection, whether it’s, you know, robotics this, or whether it’s [00:16:00] this solution here. Like there’s a possibility that we could do this way better.
Maybe there’s this case right now where someone is like, you know what, robotics, let’s do this. Let’s try to make it happen. Let’s get rid of this incumbent knowledge of automated blades and start fresh from a. Scratch
Allen Hall: my other hot take was GE sells their wind business,
Joel Saxum: the entire wind business.
Allen Hall: Yeah.
Joel Saxum: To who
Allen Hall: Ing Yang or somebody?
Anybody,
Rosemary Barnes: if they wanna do that, I’d recommend doing it in the, um, current administration would probably be the most likely to allow that to happen because I would imagine that, uh, another time that people might not be so happy that, uh, the US has therefore no wind turbine manufacturer.
Allen Hall: Does anybody else not think so that that’s a possibility.
They’re not listening to offers right now.
Joel Saxum: I would say Mitsubishi maybe. I don’t think Ming Yang. I don’t think some, I don’t think a Chinese, no, but I do think a Korea and a Japanese, a German
Allen Hall: could do it.
Joel Saxum: Yeah. Well, that would entertain the offer. [00:17:00]
Rosemary Barnes: What about one of the large ISPs buying, you know, the ability to, you know.
Properly, properly service blades for, you know, many, many, many manufacturers. There’s a lot of knowledge that you’d get there. Um, the ability to replace blades, maybe it splits into two and there’s, you know, one company takes it for manufacturing into the future, and which case they’re probably just buying factories and not really worried about much else.
And then somebody else buys molds and, um, knowledge. Models, those sorts of things
Joel Saxum: as a pitch for what exactly what you’re saying. So now let’s go back to, um, was it Larry Fink who said that they’re in investing in infrastructure, big time in the future, energy infrastructure is the future, da, da, da. And they, or like BlackRock’s been throwing money at everything, right?
They’ve been just buying, buying, buying, buying, buying. If some, someone came to them with the right [00:18:00] plan, there’s where your capital could come from. Who is it? Right? You know, that there’s players out there that may not be in the ISP world, I think is, p is interesting, Rosemary, but like a, a next era that’s like this with GEs,
Allen Hall: Adani,
Joel Saxum: a Donny’s in too much hot water to to, to make a deal with that, to let the SEC allow that.
Rosemary Barnes: Here’s my hot take. So LM started at the lm, it stands for lco Mills Fabric, which means, um, furniture manufacturer, right? So they started out making furniture, then they were making, um, caravans, I believe, and then there were, so that was all wood. Then they started making caravans outta fiberglass. Then they started making boats because those are also fiberglass and wood kind of things.
Then they moved into wind turbine blades and became LM glass fiber. So now they’re only doing fiberglass things. And then it was LM wind power. They only were doing wind power. Maybe, you know, [00:19:00] are they gonna go into, I don’t know, making airplanes next, or, or rockets, or are they gonna take a step backwards and, you know, go back into furniture?
Allen Hall: How do you put a value on a company that’s losing money?
Joel Saxum: That’s where I was going, Mr. Hall, October of 2016 when GE bought them, they paid one point. Six, 5 billion US dollars. I don’t think that that’s was probably a too wild of a price back then, but there’s no way that they’re worth that much now with what has has happened.
That being said, say they’re worth, I don’t know, I’m just gonna throw a number out there. Say they’re worth 800 million, half of that. I don’t see that as like a crazy amount for someone else, like Rosemary said, that may be crossing industry silos to pick up. Some factories, some, some composites knowledge, some other things as well, as long as they get, get into it.
With the understanding that this is a fire sale and [00:20:00] things need to be fixed,
Rosemary Barnes: isn’t, um, ozempic Danish? So there must be some, build, some Danish billionaires. Maybe there’s gonna be some national pride that that kicks in and makes somebody want to, you know, like Denmark is quite known for wind power. Um, if you combine, you know, the demise of LM with vest also.
Announcing a whole lot of job cuts. I, it’s not such a fast stretch to think that some Danish billionaire is gonna be like, you know what, Denmark should still have wind industry and I’m gonna make sure it happens.
Allen Hall: No shot. I don’t see it. I, it would be awesome if they did
Joel Saxum: Maersk, lm,
Allen Hall: but Meers doesn’t wanna lose money.
Why you, why would you invest in something that’s going to lose money for the next five years? Who’s doing that today?
Joel Saxum: Let’s just do a little comparison. So TPI claiming bankruptcy the other day when we looked at the Val, the market cap of them, they’re publicly traded. They were a hundred million, weren’t they?
Like a couple, six months ago,
Allen Hall: [00:21:00] $1.5 million.
Joel Saxum: Oh my God. It’s 1.5 million. Do you mean you could buy TPI over 1.5 million?
Allen Hall: I can get a second mortgage and have a pretty good take of that business. It has no value because it’s not making money. You, you’ve, it’s EBITDA times X.
Yolanda Padron: It’d be really interesting to see like an is like them turning into an ISB.
Like I will fix everything that I manufactured, gear, the molds, or like I will replace the parts.
Rosemary Barnes: It’s hard as well. I just make a few blades here or there. Um, because they only get cheap when you make thousands of them. But that said like sometimes people have to pay, at least in Australia, like it’s not uncommon that you need a new blade.
You have to pay a million dollars for it. So in that case, you know, like that’s apparently, you know, TPI, you buy TPI for one and a half and you make two blades in your first year. Then you know,
Yolanda Padron: you make a blade set, you’re done.
Joel Saxum: Yeah. So they were worth a hundred million in market cap a year ago today. [00:22:00] So it’s like a 99.6% decrease since last year.
Allen Hall: When you file bankruptcy, stuff like that happens. Here’s gonna be the rub. Whoever decides to do whatever with it, they’re gonna have to have a lot of cash because I guarantee you vendors have not been paid or. Or vendors are asking for money upfront before they make a delivery, and that’s not the way that GE likes to operate.
GE likes to operate. I buy this thing and then six months later I pay you half and another six months later, I may pay the remaining half. They don’t like to pay things upfront and. It’s gonna be a problem.
Joel Saxum: Net 180, and then on day 179, they’re gonna find a magic error in your invoice and it resets the clock.
Allen Hall: Australia’s wind farms are growing fast, but are your operations keeping up? Join us February 17th and 18th at Melbourne’s Poolman on the park for Wind Energy o and m Australia 2026, where you’ll connect with the [00:23:00] experts solving real problems in maintenance asset management and OEM relations. Walk away with practical strategies to cut costs and boost uptime that you can use the moment you’re back on site.
Register now at WM a 2020 six.com. Wind Energy o and m Australia is created by Wind professionals for wind professionals because this industry needs solutions, not speeches. So looking for something to do in February while America is in the middle of a winter snowstorm. You wanna go to Australia for?
Wind O and M Australia 2026 and it is going to be February, what, Joel?
Joel Saxum: 17th and 18th at the Pullman on the park in sunny. Melbourne
Allen Hall: and Rosemary, what’s on the schedule for the event in Sunny Australia?
Rosemary Barnes: Well, it’s, uh, agenda just full of the topics that Australian operators are talking about at the moment.
Um, there’s, you are gonna be [00:24:00] topics on compliance. Um, also training is a, a big thing. Training and resources to get workforce up to speed. Um, also some on big data and ai, they’re catchy. Uh, yeah, hyped up terms. But can you actually do something useful with it? I mean, you definitely can, but how do you, um, and then just heaps of stuff about just specific asset management problems that people are having be a lot of talking about problems.
And there’s also gonna be a lot of talking about solutions. So that’s kind of the point. It’s the, it’s the place where you can get. Both sides. ’cause I think, yeah, both sides are very important.
Joel Saxum: I think one, one of the things that is was good about the event last year and we’re excited about this year as well, is we tried to fit in as many networking opportunities as we could.
We’ve got a lot of coffee breaks. We’ve got breakfast, we’ve got a cocktail hour, we’ve got lunches, we’ve got all these things, and it’s kind of designed around keeping the whole crew together in one spot. So we’re able to share information, have those conversations. Oh, you have this asset. Oh, I [00:25:00] know this one.
Um, operators, speaking to operators, speaking to ISPs about specialties fixes. What are you doing? Could we implement that in our fleet? Those kind of things, right? And that’s about the, we, we talk on the podcast and in our daily lives regularly. Everybody here in the podcast is about collaboration and sharing information and sharing knowledge, and that’s the way that we’re gonna forward the, uh, industry.
So we’re really excited. Again, again, this is round two. We’re bringing this event down to Australia. Last year was great. I think we had basically every major operator represented, uh, at the event. And we’re gonna repeat that again this year.
Rosemary Barnes: I really like the size of it. Last year, I think we were about 170 or 180, which was our limit for that, that event, we did sell out this year.
We, uh, increased that a little bit to 250. Um, but it’s a good size. It’s not like, I don’t know if there’s any other, um, introverts out there, but usually when I go to an event, I get so exhausted from just. Uh, I don’t know the, the pressure of if there’s [00:26:00] an exhibition hole that you’re supposed to wander around and, you know, like the last conference I went to had like probably 20 parallel streams and it’s just like, what am I supposed to see?
Oh, these sessions all sound similar, which is gonna be the good one. Um, and then you’re trying to meet up with people as well. This event, it’s targeted enough. It’s one session. You’re gonna find probably at least 95% of the sessions interesting if you are working in wind energy, o and m in Australia. So you just go there, you sit down, you watch the interesting information, and every single person that you run into when you at lunch or coffee or whatever, every every single person is gonna be someone you can have an interesting conversation with.
So it’s just. It’s a lot, uh, it’s a lot easier for someone who, I mean, you, Americans, you’re all, uh, it’s like national law, right? That you have to be extroverted. It’s not allowed to be any kind of other personality type in America. But in Australia, there’s a lot of, uh, a lot of introverts. And, uh, I would say that this is a much, much more introvert friendly event than [00:27:00] your typical big, big, broad conference.
Allen Hall: Well, you won’t want to miss Wilma 2026. In order to get, what are those 250 seats, you need to register and you need to register now. So visit wma w om a 2020 six.com and. Get signed in, get registered, and we’ll see you in Australia in February. That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast.
Thanks for joining us as we explore the latest in wind energy technology and industry insights. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Just reach out to us on LinkedIn and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. And if you found value in today’s conversation.
Please leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show and we’ll catch you here next week on the Uptime Wind Energy [00:28:00] Podcast.
https://weatherguardwind.com/lm-wind-denmark/
Renewable Energy
Small, Vertical-Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs)
In preparation for my first book, “Renewable Energy – Facts and Fantasies,” I interviewed Ray Lane, then managing partner of Kleiner Perkins, one of the world’s great venture capital firms, who told me about his stance with his prospects, “You build the first one. I’ll invest in the next 20. Then we’ll take the thing public and use that cash to build the next 5000.”
I’m 99+% sure that the “first one” of these will never be built, i,e., installing these VAWTs at the base of functioning wind farms. The concept is asinine, as it defies the laws of fluid dynamics.

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Renewable Energy
WindQuest Advisors on Managing TSA & FSA Negotiations
WindQuest Advisors on Managing TSA & FSA Negotiations
Allen and Joel sit down with Dan Fesenmeyer of Windquest Advisors to discuss turbine supply agreement fundamentals, negotiation leverage, and how tariff uncertainty is reshaping contract terms. Dan also explains why operators should maximize warranty claims before service agreements take over.
Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!
Welcome to Uptime Spotlight, shining Light on Wind. Energy’s brightest innovators. This is the Progress Powering tomorrow.
Allen Hall: Dan, welcome to the program. Great to be here. Thanks for having me, guys. Well, we’ve been looking forward to this for several weeks now because. We’re trying to learn some of the ins and outs of turbine supply agreements, FSAs, because everybody’s talking about them now. Uh, and there’s a lot of assets being exchanged.
A lot of turbine farms up for sale. A lot of acquisitions on the other side, on the investment side coming in and. As engineers, we don’t deal a lot with TSAs. It’s just not something that we typically see until, unless there’s a huge problem and then we sort of get involved a little bit. I wanna understand, first off, and you have a a ton of experience doing this, that’s why we [00:01:00] love having you.
What are some of the fundamentals of turbine supply agreements? Like what? What is their function? How do they operate? Because I think a lot of engineers and technicians don’t understand the basic fundamentals of these TSAs.
Dan Fesenmeyer: The TSA is a turbine supply agreement and it’s for the purchase and delivery of the wind turbines for your wind farm.
Um, typically they are negotiated maybe over a 12 ish month period and typically they’re signed at least 12 months before you need, or you want your deliveries for the wind turbines.
Joel Saxum: We talk with people all over the world. Um, you know, GE Americas is different than GE in Spain and GE in Australia and Nordics here, and everybody’s a little bit different.
Um, but what we, we regularly see, and this is always an odd thing to me, is you talked about like negotiating. It starts 12 months ahead of time stuff, but we see that [00:02:00] the agreements a lot of times are very boilerplate. They’re very much like we’re trying to structure this in a certain way, and at the end of the day, well, as from an operator standpoint, from the the person buying them, we would like this and we would like this and we would like this, but at the end of the day, they don’t really seem to get that much negotiation in ’em.
It’s kind of like, this is what the agreement you’re gonna take and this is how we sell them. That’s it. Is, is that your experience? I mean, you’re at GE for a long time, one of the leading OEMs, but is that what you’re seeing now or is there a little bit more flexibility or kind of what’s your take on that?
Dan Fesenmeyer: I think generally it depends, and of course the, the OEMs in the, and I’ll focus more on the us, they’ll start with their standard template and it’s up to the purchaser, uh, to develop what they want as their wishlist and start negotiations and do their, let’s say, markup. So, uh, and then there’s a bit of leverage involved.
If you’re buying two units, it’s hard to get a lot of interest. [00:03:00] If you’re buying 200 units, then you have a lot more leverage, uh, to negotiate terms and conditions in those agreements. I was with GE for 12 years on the sales and commercial side and now doing advisory services for four years. Uh, some of these negotiations can go for a long time and can get very, very red.
Others can go pretty quick. It really depends on what your priorities are. How hard you want to push for what you need.
Allen Hall: So how much detail goes into a TSA then are, are they getting very prescriptive, the operators coming with a, a list of things they would like to see? Or is it more negotiating on the price side and the delivery time and the specifics of the turbine?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Generally speaking, you start kind of with the proposal stage and. First thing I always tell people is, let’s understand what you have in your proposal. Let’s understand, you know, what are the delivery [00:04:00] rates and times and does that fit with your project? Does the price work with respect to your PPA, what does it say about tariffs?
That’s a huge one right now. Where is the risk going to land? What’s in, what’s out? Um. Is the price firm or is there indexation, whether it’s tied to commodities or different currencies. So in my view, there’s some pre-negotiations or at least really understanding what the offer is before you start getting into red lines and, and generally it’s good to sit down with the purchasing team and then ultimately with the OEM and walk through that proposal.
Make sure you have everything you need. Make sure you understand what’s included, what’s not. Scope of supply is also a big one. Um, less in less in terms of the turbine itself, but more about the options, like does it have the control features you need for Ercot, for example. Uh, does it have leading [00:05:00]edge protection on your blades?
Does it have low noise trailing edge? Do we even need lo low noise trailing edges? Uh, you know, those
Joel Saxum: sorts
Dan Fesenmeyer: of things.
Joel Saxum: Do you see the more of the red lining in the commercial phase or like the technical phase? Because, and why I ask this question is when we talk, ’cause we’re regularly in the o and m world, right?
Talking with engineers and asset managers, how do you manage your assets? And they really complain a lot that a lot of their input in that, that feedback loop from operations doesn’t make it to the developers when they’re signing TSAs. Um, so that’s a big complaint of theirs. And so my question is like, kind of like.
All right. Are there wishes being heard or is it more general on the technical side and more focused on the commercial
Dan Fesenmeyer: side? Where do you see that it comes down to making sure that your negotiation team has all the different voices and constituents at the table? Uh, my approach and our, our team’s approach is you have the legal piece, a technical piece, and we’re in between.
We’re [00:06:00] the commercial piece. So when you’re talking TSAs, we’re talking price delivery terms. Determination, warranty, you know, kind of the, the big ticket items, liquidated damages, contract caps, all those big ticket commercial items. When you move over to the operations agreement, which generally gets negotiated at the same time or immediately after, I recommend doing them at the same time because you have more leverage and you wanna make sure terms go from TSA.
They look the same in the. Services agreement. And that’s where it’s really important to have your operations people involved. Right? And, and we all learn by mistakes. So people that have operated assets for a long time, they always have their list of five or 10 things that they want in their o and m agreement.
And, um, from a process standpoint, before we get into red lines, we usually do kind of a high [00:07:00] level walkthrough of here’s what we think is important. Um. For the TSA and for the SMA or the operations and maintenance agreement, let’s get on the same page as a team on what’s important, what’s our priority, and what do we want to see as the outcome.
Allen Hall: And the weird thing right now is the tariffs in the United States that they are a hundred percent, 200%, then they’re 10%. They are bouncing. Like a pinball or a pong ping pong ball at the moment. How are you writing in adjustments for tariffs right now? Because some of the components may enter the country when there’s a tariff or the park the same park enter a week later and not be under that tariff.
How does that even get written into a contract right now?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, that’s a fluid, it’s a fluid environment with terrorists obviously, and. It seems, and I’ll speak mostly from the two large OEMs in the US market. Um, [00:08:00] basically what you’re seeing is you have a proposal and tariffs, it includes a tariff adder based on tariffs as in as they were in effect in August.
And each one may have a different date. And this is fairly recent, right? So as of August, here’s what the dates, you know, here’s a tariff table with the different countries and the amounts. Here’s what it translates into a dollar amount. And it’ll also say, well, what we’re going to do is when, uh, these units ship, or they’re delivered X works, that’s when we come back and say, here’s what the tariffs are now.
And that difference is on the developer or the purchaser typically.
Allen Hall: So at the end of the day. The OEM is not going to eat all the tariffs. They’re gonna pass that on. It’s just basically a price increase at the end. So the, are the, are the buyers of turbines then [00:09:00] really conscious of where components are coming from to try to minimize those tariffs?
Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s
Allen Hall: difficult.
Dan Fesenmeyer: I mean, I would say that’s the starting point of the negotiation. Um, I’ve seen things go different ways depending on, you know, if an off, if a developer can pass through their tariffs to the, on their PPA. They can handle more. If they can’t, then they may come back and say, you know what, we can only handle this much tariff risk or amount in our, in our PPA.
The rest we need to figure out a way to share between the OEM or maybe and the developer. Uh, so let’s not assume, you know, not one, one size doesn’t fit all.
Joel Saxum: The scary thing there is it sound, it sounds like you’re, like, as a developer when you’re signing a TSA, you’re almost signing a pro forma invoice.
Right. That that could, that could go up 25% depending on the, the mood on, in Capitol Hill that day, which is, it’s a scary thought and I, I would think in my mind, hard to really get to [00:10:00] FID with that hanging over your head.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. It it’s a tough situation right now for sure. Yeah. And, and we haven’t really seen what section 2 32, which is another round of potential tariffs out there, and I think that’s what.
At least in the last month or two. People are comfortable with what tariffs are currently, but there’s this risk of section 2 32, uh, and who’s going to take that risk
Allen Hall: moving forward? Because the 2 32 risk is, is not set in stone as when it will apply yet or if it even
Dan Fesenmeyer: will happen and the amount, right. So three ifs, three big ifs there, Alan.
Allen Hall: Yeah. And I, maybe that’s designed on purpose to be that way because it does seem. A little bit of chaos in the system will slow down wind and solar development. That’s one way you do. We just have a, a tariff. It’s sort of a tariff that just hangs out there forever. And you, are there ways to avoid that? Is it just getting the contract in [00:11:00] place ahead of time that you can avoid like the 2 32 thing or is it just luck of the draw right now?
It’s always
Dan Fesenmeyer: up to the situation and what your project delivery. Is looking at what your PPA, what can go in, what can go out. Um, it’s tough to avoid because the OEMs certainly don’t want to take that risk. And, uh, and I don’t blame them. Uh, and separately you were asking about, well, gee, do you start worrying about where your components are sourced from?
Of course you are. However, you’re going to see that in the price and in the tariff table. Uh, typically. I would say from that may impact your, your, uh, sort of which, which OEM or which manufacturer you go with, depending on where their supply chain is. Although frankly, a lot of components come from China.
Plain and simple,
Allen Hall: right?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Same place. If you are [00:12:00] subject to these tariffs, then you want to be more on a, you know, what I would say a fleet wide basis. So, uh, meaning. Blades can come from two places. We don’t want to have, you know, an OEM select place number one because it’s subject to tariff and we have to pay for it.
You want it more on a fleet basis, so you’re not, so the OEM’s not necessarily picking and choosing who gets covered or who has to pay for a tariff or not.
Joel Saxum: And I wonder that, going back to your first statement there, like if you have the power, the leverage, if you can influence that, right? Like.
Immediately. My mind goes to, of course, like one of the big operators that has like 10, 12, 15,000 turbines and deals exclusively with ge. They probably have a lot of, they might have the, the stroke to be able to say, no, we want our components to come from here. We want our blades to come from TPI Mexico, or whatever it may be, because we don’t want to make sure they’re coming from overseas.
And, and, and if that happens in, in [00:13:00] the, let’s take like the market as a whole, the macro environment. If you’re not that big player. You kind of get the shaft, like you, you would get the leftovers basically.
Dan Fesenmeyer: You could, and that makes for a very interesting discussion when you’re negotiating the contract and, and figuring out something that could work for both.
It also gets tricky with, you know, there could be maybe three different gearbox suppliers, right? And some of those. So this is when things really get, you know, peeling back an onion level. It’s difficult and I’ll be nice to the OEMs. It’s very tough for them to say, oh, we’re only a source these gearbox, because they avoid the tariffs.
Right? That’s why I get more to this fleet cost basis, which I think is a fair way for both sides to, to handle the the issue.
Allen Hall: What’s a turbine backlog right now? If I sign a TSA today, what’s the earliest I would see a turbine? Delivered.
Dan Fesenmeyer: You know, I, I really don’t know the answer to that. I would say [00:14:00] generally speaking, it would be 12 months is generally the response you would get.
Uh, in terms of if I sign today, we get delivery in 12 months,
Allen Hall: anywhere less than two years, I think is a really short turnaround period. Because if you’re going for a, uh, gas turbine, you know, something that GE or Siemens would provide, Mitsubishi would provide. You’re talking about. Five or six years out before we ever see that turbine on site.
But wind turbines are a year, maybe two years out. That seems like a no brainer for a lot of operators.
Dan Fesenmeyer: I would say a year to two is safe. Um, my experience has been things, things really get serious 12 months out. It’s hard to get something quicker. Um, that suppliers would like to sign something two years in advance, but somewhere in between the 12 months and 24 months is generally what you can expect.
Now, I haven’t seen and been close to a lot of recent turbine supply [00:15:00]deals and, and with delivery, so I, I, I can’t quote me on any of this. And obviously different safe harbor, PTC, windows are going to be more and more important. 20 eights preferred over 29. 29 will be preferred over 30. Um, and how quick can you act and how quick can you get in line?
Allen Hall: Yeah, it’s gonna make a big difference. There’s gonna be a rush to the end. Wouldn’t you think? There’s must be operators putting in orders just because of the end of the IRA bill to try to get some production tax credits or any tax credits out of it.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Absolutely. And you know. June of 2028 is a hell of a lot better than fall of 2028 if you want a COD in 2 28.
Right. And then you just work backwards from there. Yeah. And that’s, that’s, we’ve seen that in the past as well, uh, with, with the different PTC cliffs that we’ve [00:16:00] seen.
Allen Hall: Let’s talk service agreements for a moment when after you have a TSA signed and. The next thing on the list usually is a service agreement, and there are some OEMs that are really hard pushing their service agreements.
25, 30, 35 years. Joel, I think 35 is the longest one I have seen. That’s a long time.
Joel Saxum: Mostly in the Nordics though. We’ve seen like see like, uh, there are Vestas in the Nordic countries. We’ve seen some 35 year ones, but that’s, to me, that’s. That’s crazy. That’s, that’s a marriage. 35 years. The crazy thing is, is some of them are with mo models that we know have issues.
Right? That’s the one that’s always crazy to me when I watch and, and so then maybe this is a service, maybe this is a com a question is in a service level agreement, like I, I, I know people that are installing specific turbines that we’ve been staring at for five, six years that we know have problems now.
They’ve addressed a lot of the problems and different components, bearings and drive, train and [00:17:00] blades and all these different things. Um, but as an, as an operator, you’d think that you have, okay, I have my turbine supply agreement, so there’s some warranty stuff in there that’s protecting me. There is definitely some serial defect clauses that are protecting me.
Now I have a service level agreement or a service agreement that we’re signing that should protect me for from some more things. So I’m reducing my risk a little more. I also have insurance and stuff in built into this whole thing. But when, when you start crossing that gap between. These three, four different types of contracts, how do people ensure that when they get to that service level contract, that’s kind of in my mind, the last level of protection from the OEM.
How do they make sure they don’t end up in a, uh, a really weird Swiss cheese moment where something fell through the cracks, serial defects, or something like that? You know?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. It, it comes down to, I, I think it’s good to negotiate both at the same time. Um, it sometimes that’s not practical. It’s good.
And [00:18:00] part of it is the, the simple, once your TSA is signed, you, you don’t have that leverage over that seller to negotiate terms in the services agreement, right? Because you’ve already signed a t to supply agreement. Uh, the other piece I think is really important is making sure the defect language, for example, and the warranty language in the TSA.
Pretty much gets pulled over into the service agreement, so we don’t have different definitions of what a defect is or a failed part, uh, that’s important from an execution standpoint. My view has always been in the TSA, do as much on a warranty claim as you possibly can at that end of the warranty term.
The caps and the coverages. And the warranty is much higher than under the services agreement. Services agreement [00:19:00] will end up, you know, warranty or extended warranty brackets, right? ’cause that’s not what it is. It becomes unscheduled maintenance or unplanned maintenance. So you do have that coverage, but then you’re subject to, potentially subject to CAPS or mews, annual or per event.
Um. Maybe the standard of a defect is different. Again, that’s why it’s important to keep defect in the TSAs the same as an SMA, and do your warranty claim first. Get as much fixed under the warranty before you get into that service contract.
Joel Saxum: So with Windquest, do you go, do you regularly engage at that as farms are coming up to that warranty period?
Do you help people with that process as well? As far as end of warranty claims? Contract review and those things before they get into that next phase, you know, at the end of that two year or three years.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. We try to be soup to nuts, meaning we’re there from the proposal to helping [00:20:00] negotiate and close the supply agreement and the services agreement.
Then once you move into the services agreement or into the operation period, we can help out with, uh, filing warranty claims. Right. Do we, do you have a serial defect, for example, or. That, that’s usually a big one. Do you have something that gets to that level to at least start that process with an root cause analysis?
Um, that’s, that’s obviously big ones, so we help with warranty claims and then if things aren’t getting fixed on time or if you’re in a service agreement and you’re unhappy, we try to step in and help out with, uh, that process as well.
Joel Saxum: In taking on those projects, what is your most common component that you deal with for seald?
Defects,
Dan Fesenmeyer: gearboxes seem to always be a problem. Um, more recently, blade issues, um, main bearing issues. Uh, those are [00:21:00] some of the bigger ones. And then, yeah, and we can be main bearings. Also. Pitch bearings often an issue as well.
Joel Saxum: Yeah, no, nothing surprising there. I think if you, if you listen to the podcast at all, you’ve heard us talk about all of those components.
Fairly regularly. We’re not, we’re not to lightening the world on firing new information on that one.
Allen Hall: Do a lot of operators and developers miss out on that end of warranty period? It does sound like when we talk to them like they know it’s coming, but they haven’t necessarily prepared to have the data and the information ready to go till they can file anything with the OEM it.
It’s like they haven’t, they know it’s approaching, right? It’s just, it’s just like, um, you know, tax day is coming, you know, April 15th, you’re gonna write a check for to somebody, but you’re not gonna start thinking about it until April 14th. And that’s the wrong approach. And are you getting more because things are getting tighter?
Are you getting more requests to look at that and to help? Operators and developers engage that part of their agreements. I think it’s an
Dan Fesenmeyer: [00:22:00] oppor opportunity area for owner operators. I think in the past, a lot of folks have just thought, oh, well, you know, the, the, the service agreement kicks in and it’ll be covered under unscheduled or unplanned maintenance, which is true.
But, uh, again, response time might be slower. You might be subject to caps, or in the very least, an overall contract level. Cap or limitation, let’s say. Uh, so I, I do think it’s an opportunity area. And then similarly, when you’re negotiating these upfront to put in language that, well, I don’t wanna say too much, but you wanna make sure, Hey, if I, if I file a claim during warranty and you don’t fix it, that doesn’t count against, let’s say your unplanned cap or unplanned maintenance.
Joel Saxum: That’s a good point. I was actually, Alan, this is, I was surprised the other day. You and I were on a call with someone and they had mentioned that they were coming up on end of warranty and they were just kinda like, eh, [00:23:00] we’ve got a service agreement, so like we’re not gonna do anything about it. And I was like, really?
Like that day? Like, yeah, that deadline’s passed, or it’s like too close. It wasn’t even passed. It was like, it’s coming up and a month or two. And they’re like, yeah, it’s too close. We’re not gonna do anything about it. We’ll just kind of deal with it as it comes. And I was thinking, man, that’s a weird way to.
To manage a, you know, a wind farm that’s worth 300 million bucks.
Dan Fesenmeyer: And then the other thing is sometimes, uh, the dates are based on individual turbine CDs. So your farm may have a December 31 COD, but some of the units may have an October, uh, date. Yeah, we heard a weird one the other day that was
Joel Saxum: like the entire wind farm warranty period started when the first turbine in the wind farm was COD.
And so there was some turbines that had only been running for a year and a half and they were at the end of warranty already. Someone didn’t do their due diligence on that contract. They should have called Dan Meyer.
Dan Fesenmeyer: And thing is, I come back is when you know red lines are full of things that people learned [00:24:00] by something going wrong or by something they missed.
And that’s a great example of, oh yeah, we missed that when we signed this contract.
Joel Saxum: That’s one of the reasons why Alan and I, a lot, a lot of people we talk to, it’s like consult the SMEs in the space, right? You’re, you may be at tasked with being a do it all person and you may be really good at that, but someone that deals in these contracts every day and has 20 years of experience in it, that’s the person you talk to.
Just like you may be able to figure out some things, enlight. Call Allen. The guy’s been doing lightning his whole career as a subject matter expert, or call a, you know, a on our team and the podcast team is the blade expert or like some of the people we have on our network. Like if you’re going to dive into this thing, like just consult, even if it’s a, a small part of a contract, give someone a day to look through your contract real quick just to make sure that you’re not missing anything.
’cause the insights from SMEs are. Priceless. Really.
Dan Fesenmeyer: I couldn’t agree more. And that’s kind of how I got the idea of starting Windquest advisors to begin with. [00:25:00] Um, I used to sit across the table with very smart people, but GE would con, you know, we would negotiate a hundred contracts a year. The purchaser made one or two.
And again, this isn’t, you know, to beat up the manufacturers, right? They do a good job. They, they really work with their, their customers to. Find solutions that work for both. So this is not a beat up the OEM, uh, from my perspective, but having another set of eyes and experience can help a lot.
Allen Hall: I think it’s really important that anybody listening to this podcast understand how much risk they’re taking on and that they do need help, and that’s what Windquest Advisors is all about.
And getting ahold of Dan. Dan, how do people get ahold of you? www.win advisors.com. If you need to get it to Dan or reach out to win advisors, check out LinkedIn, go to the website, learn more about it. Give Dan a phone call because I think [00:26:00] you’re missing out probably on millions of dollars of opportunity that probably didn’t even know existed.
Uh, so it’s, it’s a good contact and a good resource. And Dan, thank you so much for being on the podcast. We appreciate having you and. We’d like to have you back again.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I’d love to come back and talk about, maybe we can talk more about Lightning. That’s a
Joel Saxum: couple of episodes.
Dan Fesenmeyer: I like watching your podcast.
I always find them. Informative and also casual. It’s like you can sit and listen to a discussion and, and pick up a few things, so please continue doing what you’re doing well, thanks Dan.
Allen Hall: Thanks Dan.
https://weatherguardwind.com/windquest-advisors-tsa/
Renewable Energy
Disturb the World Around You
The website A Word a Day features “A Thought for Today,” normally from a notable author born on this date.
Here’s one from writer Ann Patchett (pictured), born 2 Dec 1963: The question is whether or not you choose to disturb the world around you, or if you choose to let it go on as if you had never arrived.
Patchett uses the word “disturb” in the sense of interfering with the normal arrangement or functioning of something. And Lord knows there are plenty of things in the world around us that need to be disturbed.
To take the two most obvious examples:
If left to proceed in a business-as-usual manner, we’ll soon live on a planet that is greatly compromised in its ability to support life, and
We Americans will live in an authoritarian state.
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Climate Change2 years ago
Why airlines are perfect targets for anti-greenwashing legal action
