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nature based carbon offset NGEO prices plummeted down to lowest level ever

Voluntary carbon credits have faced a significant downturn in prices, casting the market under increased scrutiny. But compliance prices are set to soar, with Germany raising it to 50 euros while Canada also plans to increase in 2024. 

Expectations were high that the recent COP28 conference would address concerns on carbon credit reliability by establishing regulatory measures. Yet, the attempt fell short, leading to carbon prices dropping to their lowest levels, particularly Nature Based Carbon Offsets (NGEO).

The Meltdown of NGEO Carbon Prices

Amid rising commitments to reach net zero emissions, companies have been purchasing carbon credits to offset their emissions. However, the market is currently experiencing a breakdown. 

NGEO prices plummeted to a massive 81% in trading to its lowest level ever, at just $0.07.

nature based carbon offset price

Over the last 2 years, there has been a drastic drop in demand for credits, causing a sharp decline in prices. 

The diminishing demand is attributed to the absence of standardized regulations governing carbon markets. Recent news and studies have raised concerns about the reliability of the system, emphasizing the lack of rules.

Carbon markets essentially enable the offsetting of carbon emissions through tradable entities – carbon credits. Each credit represents the removal or reduction of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, achieved through actions like tree planting.

There are two types of carbon markets: mandatory and voluntary. 

Mandatory or compliance markets are regulated by governments or international bodies using instruments like carbon taxes to regulate energy-intensive industries. On the other hand, voluntary markets allow companies and individuals to trade credits without compulsion. It is this voluntary sector that is currently under scrutiny.

Compliance Prices Set to Surge

Things in the compliance sector are taking a different turn. Germany, in particular, recently approved their aim to increase carbon prices by more than previously planned. 


The country voted to raise a carbon levy on fossil fuels used in housing and transportation. The German government initially agreed to raise prices to 40 euros a ton in 2024. But the price is now set to reach 45 euros beginning next month, a 50% jump from its current price. 

That figure will further rise to 50 euros in 2025. This new carbon price is part of the German’s nation deal to mitigate a budget crisis. It will also help fund Germany’s climate and transformation fund. 

Over in Canada, the federal government also decided to bring up the carbon tax from $65 per tonne this 2023 to $75 in 2024. 

Canada’s carbon price jumped by the most this year, going from $50 to $65 a tonne of carbon emissions. And this will continue at the rate of $10 a year increase until it reaches $170 per tonne in 2030. 

Last month, the House of Commons was in a debate over an issue whether to ax the tax or not. 

Canada’s NDP moved to scrape the carbon tax from all forms of home heating. The debate between the political parties on carving-out the carbon tax will impact the country in achieving its climate goals.

Where Hope for Voluntary Carbon Market Lies

A BloombergNEF report projected that the total value of carbon credits issued and sold for companies to achieve their decarbonization goals could reach $1 trillion by 2037. Under stricter supervision, where companies can only purchase vetted carbon credits, offset prices could surge to over $250 a ton.

Some key players cautioned about the voluntary market’s reliance on bilateral transactions for inexpensive credits, which may jeopardize its future.

They stressed the need for transparency, clear quality definitions, and easier access to high-quality supply, warning that upcoming years could mirror the challenges seen in 2022.

Hopes were pinned on a resolution in this regard during the COP28 conference. The climate summit was intended to address the issue, yet it proved unsuccessful. 

The Paris Agreement’s Article 6, outlining rules for carbon trading, was anticipated to provide a solution. But countries failed to adopt these standards at the recent COP28 conference in Dubai.

As compliance prices set to surge in the near term, voluntary carbon credits, particularly the NGEO, face a crisis due to plummeting prices and lacking regulations. The COP28 conference failed to provide resolutions, leaving uncertainties around market reliability. Hopes are now betted on clearer regulations and greater transparency to stabilize these crucial markets amid mounting climate commitments.

The post Is it the End of Nature Based Carbon Offsets? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Two Solar Stories, Two Different Directions: Why China Builds Faster as the U.S. Hits Pause

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Two Solar Stories, Two Different Directions: Why China Builds Faster as the U.S. Hits Pause

Two very different headlines on solar hit the industry. In the United States, federal officials cancelled a proposed mega-solar project in Nevada that would have been among the nation’s largest. In China, state planners and companies finished a vast solar cluster on the Tibetan Plateau that will power millions of homes.

These moves show how policy choices shape where clean energy grows, and how fast the world decarbonizes.

A Giant U.S. Project Goes Dark

U.S. officials have formally stopped the environmental review of the Esmeralda 7 solar project. The plan bundled seven utility-scale sites in Nevada into one program.

Developers had proposed as much as 6.2 gigawatts of solar capacity. At full size, that output would have been enough to power roughly 2 million homes.

The project covered a very large area of public land and drew both praise and criticism. Supporters claimed it would create thousands of construction jobs. It could also lower power costs and provide unmatched clean energy for a quickly electrifying economy. Critics raised concerns about the impacts on local ecosystems, cultural sites, and rural communities.

The Bureau of Land Management marked the project’s programmatic review as “cancelled.” The Department of the Interior has also ordered heightened review for all solar and wind projects on federal land.

That new review process, policymakers say, is intended to improve oversight and protect sensitive areas. Industry groups and renewable advocates say it introduces long delays and uncertainty.

The timing matters. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects record power capacity additions in 2025. They project about 64 gigawatts total, with solar providing over 30 gigawatts.

US electric capacity additions 2025

Canceling a 6-gigawatt project cuts off a key source of new clean power. This is especially important in the West, where transmission and land are already tight.

China Builds at High Altitude and High Speed

Meanwhile, China completed a massive solar buildout on the Tibetan Plateau. The complex spans about 162 square miles (420 square kilometers) and has millions of photovoltaic panels. These panels can generate around 20 gigawatts (GW) of electricity. That’s roughly three times more capacity than the Hoover Dam’s output.

This huge project can supply power to about 7 million homes. It will also reduce CO₂ emissions by over 15 million tonnes every year, as stated by China’s National Energy Administration (NEA). It reflects how quickly the country can mobilize resources for large-scale clean energy builds.

To balance power output, the site connects to battery storage and nearby hydropower dams, part of China’s “solar-hydro hybrid” model. This combination stabilizes the electricity supply during cloudy or nighttime hours.

China’s solar expansion has grown at record speed.

In 2024 alone, the country added more than 216 GW of new solar capacity — more than the entire installed solar capacity of the U.S. and Europe combined. China now hosts over 50% of global solar capacity and manufactures nearly 80% of the world’s solar panels.

Monthly solar PV and wind capacity additions in China

These investments are part of Beijing’s plan to reach 1,200 GW of combined solar and wind power by 2030. The International Energy Agency says China might hit this target five years early. The Tibetan Plateau cluster marks a milestone in this race.

Why the Two Stories Matter Together

Taken alone, each story is local. Together, they reveal a strategic divergence. Policy choices matter. Where governments enable big projects, industry responds by building big systems. Where governments slow approvals or restrict land use, projects stall.

This divergence has three key effects:

Supply and scale: 

Large projects require long lead times, major financing, and clear permits. China’s approach of centralized planning and direct support helps deliver very large arrays quickly. In the U.S., a shift to stricter review raises the risk that big projects will be fragmented or moved to private land, which costs more and takes longer to permit.

Grid and reliability:

Both countries face grid challenges. China pairs solar with storage and other generation to stabilize supply. In the U.S., many planned projects were meant to serve the growing load from data centers, electrification, and industry. Canceling megaprojects raises questions about where the new generation will come from as demand grows.

Jobs and industry:

Large builds create local employment and supply-chain work. China’s build supports domestic manufacturers and exporters. U.S. cancellations slow job creation tied to utility-scale construction and long-run operations.

The numbers behind the divide:

The table below compares the two major countries’ solar achievements.

solar power US vs. China

What industry leaders say

Renewable developers and industry groups warn that regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. will raise costs. When approvals take longer, financing becomes pricier, and contracts get riskier. That often shifts projects to smaller or more expensive sites or pauses them altogether.

Chinese state planners argue that their model supports rapid scaling at low cost. They deploy centralized planning, preferential financing, and coordinated transmission development to speed builds. Critics cite environmental trade-offs and questions about long-term sustainability, including impacts on fragile high-altitude ecosystems and local communities.

What It Means for the Global Energy Race

The contrast between China’s rapid expansion and the U.S. cancellation highlights how clean energy progress depends on stable rules and consistent incentives.

To reach global net-zero targets by 2050, the world needs to add around 1,000 GW of solar power every year starting in 2030, according to the IEA. Current growth rates fall short of that pace, especially in countries where permitting and financing slow development.

If the U.S. tightens rules on public land projects, developers might look to private land, offshore wind, or rooftop solar. Each option has trade-offs: higher costs, slower scale-up, or smaller output per site.

On the other hand, still leads in manufacturing. In 2024, it invested over $100 billion in solar manufacturing capacity. If this trend continues, China could supply two-thirds of all new solar capacity worldwide by 2030. That would give it both economic leverage and a stronger position in global clean-tech exports.

share of global renewable capacity additions 2030 IEA 2025 report
Data source: IEA Report

Two headlines show how quickly the global picture can change. One nation canceled a project that would have been among its largest. Another completed a massive solar cluster that will serve millions. Both decisions grew out of domestic politics, planning choices, and local concerns. Also, both will affect how quickly the world cuts emissions.

The lesson is simple. To win the race to low-carbon power, countries need clear rules, reliable permitting, and sustained investment. When that policy mix is present, large projects get built. When it is not, they stall. The future of the green energy transition depends on which path more governments choose.

The post Two Solar Stories, Two Different Directions: Why China Builds Faster as the U.S. Hits Pause appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Forest Finance Hits Record Growth in 2025: Investment Doubles for Nature-Based Climate Action

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Forest Finance Hits Record Growth in 2025: Investment Doubles for Nature-Based Climate Action

Forests are regaining global financial attention. According to the UNEP State of Finance for Forests 2025 report, investment in sustainable forest management, restoration, and conservation is increasing after years of underfunding. Governments, private firms, and international institutions are now channeling more capital into nature-based solutions as part of global climate strategies.

The report highlights an encouraging shift: while current funding still falls short of what’s needed to halt deforestation, the pace of growth in forest finance has accelerated sharply since 2020. If the trend continues, forests could play a stronger role in both climate mitigation and green economic recovery.

A Rising Wave of Forest Investment

Between 2020 and 2024, global finance flowing toward forests and nature-based climate solutions nearly doubled. The report estimates that around $23.5 billion per year is now directed toward protecting and restoring forests worldwide, up from less than $12 billion annually just five years ago.

Public finance remains the largest source, accounting for roughly 60% of total flows. Governments and development banks fund reforestation, community forest management, and sustainable agriculture programs.

However, private capital is catching up fast. Private investments now represent 40% of forest-related finance, compared to about 25% in 2020.

Public and private finance flows to forests in 2023
Source: UNEP Report

Key drivers include growing corporate commitments to net-zero emissions and the expansion of carbon markets. The demand for verified forest carbon credits has encouraged companies to back reforestation and avoided-deforestation projects in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

At the same time, emerging “blended finance” models — which combine public risk guarantees with private investment — have made nature projects more bankable. This mix has become crucial for attracting institutional investors who traditionally avoided forestry due to long payback periods and perceived risks.

Nature as an Economic Engine

The economic case for forest investment is becoming clearer. Forests absorb about 7.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ every year, roughly one-fifth of global emissions. Yet they receive less than 2% of total climate finance, according to UNEP data.

The 2025 report argues that increasing forest investment could deliver major returns. Every dollar spent on forest restoration can yield up to $30 in ecosystem services, such as water regulation, soil protection, and biodiversity conservation.

Moreover, the jobs generated by sustainable forestry are rising. Forest-related sectors already employ over 30 million people worldwide, many in rural areas. Expanding restoration and reforestation could create an additional 15 million green jobs by 2030, based on projections from the International Labour Organization.

Several countries have made measurable progress. Brazil and Indonesia, once deforestation hotspots, are now expanding conservation incentives and attracting foreign funding for forest protection.

In Africa, Ghana and Gabon are scaling up REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) programs, linking carbon revenue directly to forest governance improvements.

Countries with highest public domestic expenditure on forests in 2023

Private Capital Steps Up

Private investment in forests has grown from niche to mainstream in recent years. Asset managers, corporations, and impact investors are increasingly allocating funds to forestry and land-use projects that deliver both profit and carbon benefits.

The State of Finance for Forests 2025 report notes that private flows reached nearly $9 billion in 2024, led by large climate funds, corporate carbon credit purchases, and green bonds.

Notably, sustainability-linked bonds and loans are emerging as key financial tools. These instruments tie interest rates or repayment terms to measurable sustainability outcomes, such as reforestation acreage or emissions reduction.

Some of the largest moves include:

  • Sovereign green bonds issued by countries like Indonesia and Chile, raising billions for forest protection.
  • Corporate reforestation partnerships, such as Nestlé’s and Unilever’s investments in agroforestry supply chains.
  • Investment funds like Mirova, Climate Asset Management, and the &Green Fund, which collectively manage more than $5 billion in nature-based assets.

Private actors are also entering carbon markets more actively. Voluntary carbon credit demand reached an estimated 250 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2024, with forestry projects representing nearly 50% of total credits traded.

VCM Transaction Volumes, Values, and Prices by Forestry and Land Use Project Types

The Global Funding Gap

Despite progress, the funding gap remains wide. To meet global forest and land-use goals by 2030, annual investments need to reach $460 billion, the report finds. That is nearly 20 times current levels.

Forest finance flows and investment needed

The shortfall reflects structural barriers: unclear land tenure, lack of local project pipelines, and limited data on returns. In many regions, smallholders lack access to affordable finance for sustainable farming and reforestation.

However, international climate finance mechanisms are helping bridge the gap. The Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility have both expanded forest-related programs. Since 2020, more than $6 billion has been committed through multilateral channels, supporting over 50 countries in their efforts to protect and restore forests.

The report also highlights that emerging markets — particularly in Africa and Latin America — could attract much larger investments if credit risks were reduced. Blended finance remains one of the most promising tools to make this possible.

Integrity and Innovation Take Root

A key focus of the 2025 report is ensuring that forest finance delivers real, measurable impact. This means improving transparency and strengthening safeguards against greenwashing.

New global standards are now being applied to forest projects. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) and the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) are working to align certification systems with climate integrity principles. This includes satellite-based monitoring, standardized carbon accounting, and stronger community engagement.

More than 70% of new private forest projects launched in 2024 adopted third-party verification standards, showing a growing shift toward credibility. These frameworks are helping investors gain confidence that their money is delivering genuine environmental and social benefits.

Technology also plays a growing role. Digital tools such as remote sensing, AI-powered forest monitoring, and blockchain-based traceability systems are improving project tracking and investor reporting.

From Billions to Trillions: The Next Frontier

The overall tone of the State of Finance for Forests 2025 report is optimistic. It finds that forest finance has entered a period of acceleration, with stronger collaboration between governments, investors, and communities.

If growth continues at the current pace, total annual forest finance could exceed $50 billion by 2030 — more than four times the 2020 level. However, the report stresses that this is still below what’s needed to achieve global forest protection targets.

UNEP and the World Bank project that scaling up nature-based investment to the trillion-dollar range will require systemic changes:

  • Embedding forests in national climate plans and green recovery packages.
  • Expanding carbon pricing and nature credit markets.
  • Strengthening transparency and local governance.

As deforestation pressures persist, the momentum around forest finance offers hope. The sector is no longer seen as an environmental niche but as a pillar of global climate and economic strategy.

Forests store carbon, support livelihoods, and protect biodiversity. Mobilizing finance at scale can help unlock their full potential — transforming them from victims of climate change into powerful drivers of climate resilience.

The post Forest Finance Hits Record Growth in 2025: Investment Doubles for Nature-Based Climate Action appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Tesla Rides High Before Q3 Earnings With (TSLA) Stock Rising, Record Deliveries, Gigafactory Growth, and Green Goals

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Tesla Rides High Before Q3 Earnings With (TSLA) Stock Rising, Record Deliveries, Gigafactory Growth, and Green Goals

Tesla, Inc. continues to show strong performance in 2025. In the third quarter alone, the company delivered 497,099 vehicles, close to half a million units. This figure is one of Tesla’s highest quarterly delivery totals on record. At the same time, its Austin Gigafactory reached a key production milestone — more than 500,000 vehicles built since opening in 2022.

These achievements confirm Tesla’s steady expansion of its manufacturing network. The company now runs major factories in California, Texas, Nevada, Germany, and China. Each plant contributes to a growing global supply chain that supports its Model Y, Model 3, and the new Cybertruck.

Tesla’s steady ramp-up shows how far it has come since its early production struggles. The company aims to reach 20 million vehicles a year by 2030. This plan is ambitious, but this quarter’s numbers show steady progress toward that goal.

Gigafactory Texas Reaches a Key Milestone

Gigafactory Texas, near Austin, is Tesla’s biggest and most advanced U.S. facility. It makes the Model Y and is ramping up Cybertruck production. Hitting 500,000 vehicles in roughly three and a half years shows faster growth compared to Tesla’s earlier plants.

Reports say around 100,000 vehicles were made from April to mid-October 2025. This strong pace helps meet annual growth targets. The plant uses Giga Presses, which are massive casting machines that replace dozens of smaller parts. This automation speeds up production, reduces costs, and minimizes material waste.

The Texas facility also plays a central role in Tesla’s sustainability strategy. Much of its electricity comes from renewable energy, and its design reduces water use and waste. Over time, Tesla aims for all Gigafactories to operate with 100% clean energy.

Q3 Earnings Outlook: Revenue Growth, Margin Pressure

Analysts expect Tesla to post around $26.3 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, up about 4–5% year-over-year. However, earnings per share (EPS) are projected to fall about 24%, to roughly $0.55 per share from $0.72 in the same quarter last year.

The decline is mainly due to lower vehicle prices and smaller contributions from carbon redit sales. These credits have been providing a huge revenue stream to the EV giant by selling it to its peers that don’t meet regulatory emission reductions.

Also, Tesla has cut prices on its main models in several markets to stay competitive, especially against Chinese EV makers. Those price cuts attract new buyers but reduce profit margins.

Tesla’s operating margin averaged 9.2% in Q2 2025, down from 11.4% a year earlier. Automotive gross margin, excluding credits, was about 18%, compared to over 25% in 2022. Even with tighter margins, Tesla continues to benefit from software revenue through Full Self-Driving (FSD) packages and connectivity subscriptions.

The company’s results will likely depend on several key factors:

  • Vehicle deliveries – nearly half a million this quarter.
  • Energy storage deployments – reaching a new record of 12.5 GWh.
  • Software and services – providing recurring, higher-margin income.
  • Production costs – influenced by logistics and raw material expenses.

Despite margin pressure, Tesla’s growth in energy storage and software could offset some of the decline in car profits.

The Global EV Race Accelerates

The global electric vehicle (EV) market continues to expand rapidly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global EV sales rose over 30% in 2024. They reached almost 14 million units. In 2025, sales could hit 17 million. Electric cars could represent about 22% of all vehicle sales globally by the end of this year.

global EV sales 2030 BNEF

Tesla remains a market leader, holding around 16% of global EV market share, but it faces rising competition. Chinese brands like BYD, NIO, and XPeng are growing in Asia and Europe. At the same time, Volkswagen, Ford, GM, and Hyundai are speeding up EV production.

Elon Musk’s company defends its position by improving efficiency and cutting costs. Its 4680 battery cells are key, aiming to lower production costs by up to 50%. They also enhance range and durability.

The company also benefits from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which offers tax credits for EV buyers and incentives for battery production. However, these credits will gradually phase out, which could affect demand after 2026.

According to BloombergNEF, the average price of lithium-ion batteries dropped to $115 per kWh in 2024, down 20% from 2023. This decline helps Tesla maintain affordability while protecting margins.

battery grade lithium prices

Wall Street Takes the Wheel: Tesla Stock Gains on Big Deliveries

Tesla’s stock rose modestly after its Q3 delivery report. On Monday, shares gained, surpassing $444, which doubled in six months. The rise reflects investor confidence in Tesla’s production capacity and delivery strength, even with profit pressure.

Tesla TSLA stock price

Analysts remain split: some expect stronger earnings in 2026 as new models roll out, while others warn that price cuts and competition could slow growth.

Still, Tesla’s ability to maintain high output while scaling its energy business supports its long-term outlook. The company is a top choice for big investors like BlackRock and Vanguard. They both focus on sustainability in their investment strategies.

Driving Clean: Tesla’s Growing Role in a Net-Zero World

Tesla’s business model directly supports global emission-reduction goals. Tesla’s 2024 Impact Report shows that customers avoided almost 32 million metric tons of CO₂e emissions. This is a 60% increase from last year. This figure includes emissions avoided by Tesla’s vehicles as well as its solar and energy storage products globally.

Since 2012, Tesla’s fleet has avoided many millions of metric tons of CO₂e. Each vehicle saves about 52 metric tons of CO₂e compared to similar gasoline cars over an average lifespan of 17 years.

lifecycle emissions of gas cars vs EV

Tesla also focuses on sustainable manufacturing:

  • Gigafactory Nevada recycles more than 92% of production waste and reduces its water use intensity by 12% year-over-year.
  • The company sources lithium and aluminum from suppliers following responsible mining and low-carbon standards.
  • Its battery recycling program recovers up to 95% of nickel, cobalt, and lithium for reuse.

Beyond vehicles, Tesla’s energy business is expanding fast. In 2024, the company deployed 15 GWh of energy storage through its Megapack and Powerwall systems — enough to power over 4 million homes for one hour. These systems help utilities store renewable energy, stabilize grids, and reduce fossil fuel reliance.

Tesla aims to reach net-zero emissions across its value chain by 2040, covering factories, logistics, and product lifecycles. Investments in solar, wind, and carbon reduction projects are key to that goal.

Roadblocks and Roadmaps: What’s Next for Tesla

Amid its strong momentum, Tesla still faces several challenges that could affect future growth:

  • Competition: Rivals are narrowing the gap in technology and cost.
  • Price pressure: Discounts to boost demand reduce profitability.
  • Regulatory risks: Autopilot and FSD remain under scrutiny in some markets.
  • Supply chain: Securing critical minerals like lithium and nickel remains essential.

To adapt, Tesla is diversifying. The company plans to launch a low-cost compact vehicle, often referred to as the Model 2, expected to be priced under $27,000 and launched in late 2026.

It’s also developing a robotaxi platform, codenamed CyberCab, expected to begin pilot operations in 2026 with Level 4 autonomy. Plus, Tesla Energy could exceed $10 billion in annual revenue by 2026, supported by growing Megapack demand in the U.S. and Europe.

Tesla’s Q3 2025 milestones highlight both progress and pressure. Delivering nearly 500,000 vehicles and producing 500,000 at its Texas plant shows major strides in sustainable mobility. Revenue continues to grow even as profits tighten.

As Tesla prepares to announce its Q3 earnings, investors will look for signs of balance — growth, profitability, and sustainability. If the company keeps expanding responsibly and investing in cleaner technologies, it will remain a central player in the global transition toward a zero-emission economy.

The post Tesla Rides High Before Q3 Earnings With (TSLA) Stock Rising, Record Deliveries, Gigafactory Growth, and Green Goals appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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