The impacts of climate change are already being felt by both humans and ecosystems, with extreme weather events and record-high temperatures becoming increasingly frequent and intense.
Established in the Paris Agreement, the global goal on adaptation (GGA) is designed to “ensure an adequate adaptation response” to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems as the world aims to keep warming “well below” 2C or even to 1.5C.
However, intergovernmental negotiations on implementing the GGA have been bumpy and slow going.
Areas of disagreement include the setting of ambitious and measurable adaptation targets, how to track adaptation progress and support for increased adaptation.
In a recent policy brief article, we set out the need for robust, ambitious and time-bound targets for adaptation actions. These targets could cover adaptation planning, support and implementation for key sectors and systems, including food, health, water, ecosystems, infrastructure, cities and livelihoods.
The COP28 summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), is crucial for achieving consensus on putting the GGA into action, as the Glasgow-Sharm El Sheikh work programme on operationalising the GGA is expected to conclude at the talks with establishment of a GGA framework.
Already, the issue has proven contentious in negotiations, with developing countries pushing for greater focus on climate adaptation finance as part of the goal.
Putting the GGA into operation would set a clear signal for increased ambition and action on adaptation support and implementation.
Operationalising the GGA
The first step in tackling climate change impacts through the GGA is achieving political consensus on adaptation targets and the finance, technology and capacity-building support for achieving them.
Our research suggests this process should draw on recent scientific assessments, such as the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, UN Adaptation Gap reports and national-level submissions to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), such as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), national adaptation plans (NAPs) and adaptation communications (AdComs).
Targets could have quantitative or qualitative elements, or both, but need to be measurable, time-bound and ambitious, given the acceleration of adaptation actions required this decade to minimise loss and damage.
A second step is a further programme of work to develop metrics and indicators for tracking progress against the targets. Political progress on establishing targets better enables technical work for tracking adaptation progress, through monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions. Progress towards the global goal through further work could then be collectively captured and reviewed under the global stocktake (GST) process to track progress together with other goals under the GST globally.
A similar programme of first establishing political agreement on targets and then requesting further technical work on indicators to track progress has been followed by other multilateral target-setting processes, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction.
To initiate development of the GGA framework and to guide its achievement, countries that were signatories to the Paris Agreement created the Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh work programme on the GGA at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. It will consider a structured framework, including different “dimensions” of an iterative adaptation cycle – shown below.
Support in terms of finance, capacity-building and technology transfer should be a consideration under each dimension with a view to enhancing adaptation action and support.
Governments have also agreed to consider targets for key systems and sectors – called “themes” in the GGA negotiations – where increased adaptation action is urgently needed.
The figure below shows the themes under which GGA targets can be implemented.
Other considerations of the framework include fully transparent approaches that are able to capture the issues – highlighted below – which cut across the dimensions and themes of the framework.
Setting ambitious targets
A key part of the GGA framework will be establishing ambitious and measurable targets.
An overarching target for the GGA, for instance, could provide clarity for guiding adaptation investment globally by focusing on reducing climate impacts and risks – the outcome of effective adaptation.
Our policy brief outlines a series of factors to consider when setting an overarching target, as well as individual targets for each of the four “dimensions” mentioned earlier.
These suggestions – shown in the table below – focus on key elements of the GGA framework and are global in nature.
They have been informed by the latest scientific assessments and reports of adaptation needs, including the IPCC, UN Adaptation Gap reports, academic literature and national adaptation documents such as NDCs and NAPs for Africa, as well as other multilaterally agreed targets such as the SDGs and the Sendai Framework.
| Overarching target | Impact, risk and vulnerability target | Planning target | Implementation target | Monitoring and evaluation target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guide adaptation action and support | Identify climate risks and hazards to reduce exposure | As of 2022, 84% of countries have at least one national-level adaptation planning instrument in place (AGR 2022) | Increase implementation that aligns with priorities to effectively reduce climate vulnerability, exposure, impacts and risks, and avoids maladaptation | Design, set up, or improve and/or implement MEL processes and systems in light of climate risk including integration of local and Indigenous knowledge, traditional and other vulnerable groups knowledge to enhance buy-in and ownership |
| Reduce climate risk | Assess vulnerability to existing and future climate hazards as basis for early warning system | Ensure all parties have developed national adaptation plans, strategies and policy instrument | Close the adaptation gap | Developing countries having equitable access to MOIs for MEL |
| Scale up adequate support for adaptation | Parties to use identified information to prioritise sectors for adaptation measure and develop a comprehensive adaptation plan | Increase inclusive planning and enhanced implementation of plans | ||
| Should inform the underlying premise of the framework – thus, reduce risk, plan better, enhance implementation and finance adaptation | Access to MOI to prepare and implement plans, including investment and integration across levels and sectors | |||
| Move towards resilience, improving adaptive capacity and reducing vulnerability related to long-term temperature goal |
Factors to consider in developing targets for the GGA dimensions. Source: ACDI (2023)
Theme targets
Of the adaptation “themes” set out in GGA negotiations, we suggest targets for six of them, as published in our recent policy brief and below:
Health: Achieve universal health coverage by 2030 and eliminate global climate-related mortality and morbidity by 2040.
Ecosystem and biodiversity: By 2040 maintain the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystems services at the global scale by achieving effective and equitable conservation of 50% of Earth’s land, freshwater, and ocean areas, including near-natural ecosystems, substantially increase restoration and effective ecosystem-based adaptation, and avoid mitigation measures that damage ecosystems.
Food and agriculture: Achieve food security and end malnutrition in all forms by 2030, despite climate change, and substantially reduce adverse climate impacts on food and agricultural production and productivity, and the entire agriculture value chain by 2040.
Cities, settlements and infrastructure: Ensure resilience of cities, settlements and key infrastructure to climate change by 2040, including by considering climate change impacts and risks in the design and planning of all human settlements and infrastructure, and substantially increasing deployment of integrated social, ecological and grey/physical infrastructure that reduces vulnerability of people, especially in informal settlements and coastal settlements.
Water: Achieve universal access to safe and affordable drinking water by 2030 and substantially reduce climate-induced water scarcity by 2040 including improving water use efficiency and reducing exposure and vulnerability of water and sanitation systems to climate hazards.
Poverty and livelihoods: Increase resilience and substantially reduce adverse climate impacts on livelihoods as a share of a country’s total population by 2040, including through integrating climate change adaptation into social protection programmes supported by basic services and infrastructure.
These proposed targets are global in nature and could set the course for increased adaptation actions while allowing countries to align actions with nationally identified adaptation priorities.
Setting time-bound and measurable targets would further strengthen calls to support implementation and enhance tracking of progress to sustain adaptation actions.
What next for the GGA?
Developing countries are already experiencing widespread loss and damage from climate change underscoring the vital importance of the GGA.
Key considerations that will make the GGA relevant include the ability of a strong GGA framework to catalyse adaptation finance and actions; the potential of the GGA to close the existing adaptation gap that so far is widening for the global-south regions; and, finally, a GGA that avoids maladaptation.
At COP28, a meaningful outcome for the GGA would include agreement on ambitious, measurable and time-bound targets for the dimensions and themes, as well as the finance, technology transfer and capacity building as appropriate means of implementation for the GGA.
A GGA with a strong focus on reducing climate change impacts and risks is all the more pressing considering that the window of opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5C is closing fast and risks may emerge earlier than projected.
Decisions made at COP28 would, hopefully, launch further work on indicators and methodologies for tracking progress on achieving the targets and the means of implementation.
Our recommendations include support for the evaluation of how much adaptation finance each developing country needs. This could help to ensure sufficient financial support from developed countries for adaptation – something that has been insufficient up to this point.
We also suggest that more global climate funds could be set aside to plan, implement and assess adaptation progress.
Other recommendations include reducing the reporting burden for developing countries, establishing the need for comprehensive datasets and providing technical support for developing countries from bodies such as the IPCC.
The post Guest post: What would an ambitious ‘global goal on adaptation’ look like at COP28? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: What would an ambitious ‘global goal on adaptation’ look like at COP28?
Antarctic sea ice has recorded its third-smallest winter peak extent since satellite records began 48 years ago, new data reveals.
Provisional data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that Antarctic sea ice hit its annual winter peak on 14 September, with an extent of 17.59m square kilometres (km2).
The organisation notes that the data is still preliminary, adding that “large fluctuations in extent are typical of Antarctic sea ice near the seasonal maximum”.
One expert tells Carbon Brief that it is “concerning to see these low values persisting”, but says that scientists need more time to determine whether this represents a “structural shift” in Antarctic sea ice extent.
Meanwhile, at the Earth’s other pole, Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum on 12 September, ranking as the joint-10th lowest in the satellite record.
The NSIDC notes that the last 20 years have seen the lowest 20 Arctic sea ice extents in the satellite record.
Antarctic peak
Dr Lettie Roach, a polar climate scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, tells Carbon Brief that this year’s Antarctic sea ice maximum was “well below average for the season”. She warns that, “after several decades of stable or increasing winter Antarctic sea ice conditions, it is concerning to see these low values persisting”.
She adds:
“Compared with the Arctic, it’s less clear how recent changes in Antarctic sea ice are attributable to human-caused warming vs natural variability. We need more years of observations to better understand whether this is truly a structural shift.”
Dr Clare Eayrs, a postdoctoral researcher at the Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI), tells Carbon Brief that, since recording a “near-average February minimum” extent, Antarctic sea ice has “returned to unusually low winter coverage”.
She notes that Antarctic sea ice extent in July and August this year were the fifth and fourth lowest on record, respectively, adding that “all five of the lowest July extents have occurred since 2022 and all four of the lowest August extents since 2023”.
The chart below shows Antarctic sea ice extent in 2025 (dark blue) and 2026 (red) so far. For comparison, the chart shows decadal averages (dotted lines) as well as 2023 (mid blue), the year of the smallest winter sea-ice maximum on record.
Eayrs tells Carbon Brief that the regional pattern of Antarctic sea ice cover “changed substantially during the growth season”.
For example, she says that “in April, the Bellingshausen Sea remained almost entirely ice-free, while the neighbouring Amundsen Sea had more ice than usual”.
However, by late August, changes in atmospheric pressure and wind meant that “the Bellingshausen deficit had largely recovered, while ice was unusually scarce in the Amundsen Sea and across much of East Antarctica”.
Arctic minimum
Meanwhile, the Arctic recorded its minimum summer sea ice extent on 12 September. At 4.60m km2, this year ties with 2025, 2010 and 2008 as the 10th-lowest sea ice extent on record.
The chart below shows Arctic sea ice extent in 2025 (dark blue) and 2026 (red) so far. For comparison, the chart shows decadal averages (dotted lines) as well as 2012 (mid blue), the year of the smallest summer sea-ice minimum on record.
Roach tells Carbon Brief that although this minimum is not “record setting”, it is still “lower than any sea ice minimum before 2007”. She adds:
“Human-caused climate change has reduced Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, so the region is fundamentally different compared to a few decades ago.”
Scientists have been tracking Arctic sea ice thickness using a reanalysis produced called the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) since 1979.
In March 2026, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) terminated a global dataset of air pressure that scientists relied upon to produce PIOMAS, forcing both datasets to stop publishing updates.
The PIOMAS website says it will take “considerable effort and time” to find alternative data to use in their reanalysis. It adds that “we don’t yet have a good sense if that’s possible with available funds and if so, when we will be able to resume production of a new PIOMAS timeseries”.
Roach also notes that August saw record-breaking heat sweep across much of the world, explaining that high temperatures “extended into Arctic coastal regions, close to regions with substantial sea ice loss – particularly the Barents-Kara and East Siberian seas”.
Dr Zack Labe, a scientist at Climate Central, tells Carbon Brief that the absence of a new record does not mean that ice cover is becoming more “resilient”. He says:
“Local weather patterns across the Arctic play a really important role in year-to-year sea-ice extent, even as the long-term trend is clearly downward.”
Labe tells Carbon Brief that weather in the Arctic this summer was “influenced mainly by lower pressure toward the central Arctic, which brought cloudier and cooler conditions that limited surface melt and delayed the start of the melt season”.
He explains that this “was most obvious across parts of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, where the melt season didn’t really kick off until after early July, which was more than two weeks later than normal”.
In contrast, he says, the Atlantic side of the Arctic “had a much more extreme summer”, with sea ice in the Barents Sea recording its “earliest melt-out on record”.
This was partly due to “unusually warm air and ocean temperatures”, Labe says. He notes, for example, that parts of western Siberia saw unusually persistent temperatures more than 5C above the 1981-2010 average for much of the summer, which extended out over the Kara Sea and contributed to substantial ice melt in this area”.
Labe tells Carbon Brief that, going forward, scientists need “more data and observations of other sea-ice metrics, like ice thickness, which may give us better insight into the overall condition of the ice pack, especially during years like 2026 when it is very fragmented”.
(In March 2026, Arctic sea ice reached its peak extent for this winter, clocking in as the joint-smallest in a satellite record going back almost half a century.)
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The post ‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak appeared first on Carbon Brief.
‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak
Participants at COP31 in Antalya will have a “duty” not to interfere in Türkiye’s internal affairs under the country’s hosting deal with the UN, reviving a clause dropped for last year’s climate summit in Brazil that human rights groups warn could put activists at risk.
Türkiye has faced growing criticism from human rights groups over the jailing of opposition figures, journalists and activists and imposed a blanket protest ban around July’s summit of the NATO military alliance in Ankara.
The contested provision is included in the binding agreement between the UN climate secretariat and the Turkish government that sets out responsibilities over logistical arrangements and details participants’ rights and obligations.
The document, signed in June but only made public on Wednesday, gives accredited COP31 attendees immunity from legal action over what they say, write or do in connection with the conference. Climate Home News understands that this safeguard can be applied to what takes place both inside and, in certain circumstances, outside of the UN-controlled COP “Blue Zone”. For the first time, this protection explicitly continues after the summit ends.
But participants enjoying these “privileges and immunities” also have a duty to respect Türkiye’s laws and regulations and not to interfere in its internal affairs, the agreement states. Rights groups fear its wide-ranging formulation could be used to discourage criticism of the host government.
Climate Home News understands that whether an action is covered by the immunity or infringes on the host’s internal affairs would be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, with close coordination between the country’s authorities and the UN climate change body.
A separate provision states that immunity shall be waived where the UN believes it would “impede the course of justice”.
‘Chilling effect’
Those same provisions featured in the host country agreements for COP28 in the United Arab Emirates and COP29 in Azerbaijan, both regarded as authoritarian regimes, before being dropped for COP30 in Brazil.
Ann Harrison, climate justice policy advisor at Amnesty International, said it is “extremely disappointing” that the COP31 agreement re-introduced clauses that could “hinder the ability of human rights defenders and civil society organisations to conduct their work safely”.
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She added the provisions could have a “wider chilling effect” on rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, given concerns over the human rights situation in Türkiye, including laws that “have shrunk civic space” and their “abusive” implementation by authorities.
The UN climate change body declined to comment.
Rights groups have documented blanket protest bans, unlawful use of force by the police and prosecutions of journalists, human rights defenders and lawyers across Türkiye in the last year.
Arrests and protest bans
Last July, environmental activist Esra Işık was sentenced to more than two years for “resisting” a public official over what Amnesty International described as a peaceful protest against an urgent expropriation order linked to the expansion of coal mining in south-western Türkiye. She is appealing the conviction.
Ahead of a summit of the NATO alliance in the capital Ankara in July, authorities put in place a 13-day blanket ban on demonstrations, citing “national security”, and arrested over 200 people. Human Rights Watch said the crackdown showed Türkiye’s “ruthless intolerance of freedom of speech and assembly”.
Earlier this month, Turkish police detained dozens of people as part of what rights groups described as the government’s widening crackdown on LGBTQ+ activists and venues.
Questioned by media as to how he would guarantee the right to protest at COP31, Kurum said earlier in September that his team would “try to meet” any request they receive from civil society and give them “a free space to express themselves”.
“Don’t worry, thinking you will not be able to voice your opinions or really share your thoughts,” he said in an attempt to reassure campaigners, adding that he had put former deputy environment minister Mehmet Birpinar in charge of liaising with civil society.
Civic space needed
Camilla Pollera, human rights and climate change campaigner at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), said meaningful participation at COP31 is fundamental to the legitimacy of climate action.
“At a climate summit, civil society participation necessarily includes being present, speaking out, scrutinising governments’ decisions and climate policies, and advocating for communities most vulnerable to climate change,” she added.
At last year’s COP30 summit, thousands of Indigenous people and climate activists peacefully marched through the Amazonian city of Belém in the first major demonstration outside the UN venue in four years. Smaller-scale demonstrations were largely confined to the “Blue Zone” at COP27 in Egypt, COP28 in the UAE and COP29 in Azerbaijan.
In two other separate incidents in Belém, members of the Munduruku tribe blocked access to the conference centre for hours, demanding an end to development projects in their ancestral land, and protesters stormed through the venue clashing with UN security officials.
The COP31 hosting agreement keeps some of the safeguards previously hailed by civil society groups. The government and the UN secretariat commit to upholding “the fundamental human rights” of all participants in the agreement’s preamble.
Under the deal, Türkiye also needs to ensure that security personnel follow “the highest ethical and professional standards and are expected to behave with integrity and respect”.
The post COP31 attendees told not to interfere in Türkiye’s “internal affairs” appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP31 attendees told not to interfere in Türkiye’s “internal affairs”
As rising seas submerge growing swathes of land, countries that lose territory should still keep their national boundaries, sovereign rights and UN membership, according to a political declaration adopted at the UN General Assembly in New York on Thursday.
The declaration, which was championed by climate-vulnerable small island states, affirms “the presumption in favour of continued statehood” in the face of sea level rise fuelled by climate change, and urges countries to work together to assist communities affected by encroaching oceans.
Speaking at a high-level UN meeting to address the existential threats posed by sea level rise, Cabo Verde’s Prime Minister Francisco Carvalho, one of the initiative’s co-facilitators along with Australia, said the adoption of the text by consensus sends “a message of hope”.
“This declaration has a very special meaning. For us, sea level rise is neither a distant threat nor a theoretical concern,” he said, adding that rising seas put at risk key infrastructure, water resources and economic growth in small island states.
In the Pacific, sea levels have risen at twice the global rate, dramatically increasing coastal flooding events from two to 20 a year in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and from zero to 102 events per year in American Samoa, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Surangel Whipps Jr., president of the Pacific island of Palau, said the summit in New York represents a “moment of international solidarity”, and highlighted that small island states will remain permanent members of the UN.
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Declaration recognises statehood
An advisory opinion by the world’s top maritime court, the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), first upheld in 2024 that countries do not have to shrink their maritime borders even if they lose land territory due to sea level rise. This was reiterated by the International Court of Justice in last year’s landmark ruling on the climate obligations of states.
The new declaration endorsed by all governments at the UN General Assembly stresses that sea level rise “is not a distant scenario but a real and lived experience for many”, and notes that international law must be implemented in global responses to rising seas.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the “milestone must now be translated into action”, adding that the declaration should encourage an “ongoing dialogue” at the “highest possible level” leading to practical outcomes. Pacific islands have proposed an international treaty on sea level rise that would provide more legal certainty.
“Those on the frontlines must be front and centre on every decision. We cannot allow countries and cultures to vanish beneath the waves,” he said. “The SOS has gone out. The world must answer.”
At regional summit, Pacific islands ask for COP31 support for clean energy and finance
Goodwin Friday, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, said measures to protect vulnerable states will require adequate finance. “Investing in resilience now is more cost-effective than paying the far greater price for loss and damage later,” he added.
Championed by Australia’s COP31 co-presidency, Pacific islands have sought to put adaptation to sea level rise and ocean conservation at the top of the political agenda by inviting world leaders to attend the pre-COP31 summit co-hosted by Fiji and Tuvalu in October.
Tuvalu will also host the second global fossil fuel phase-out summit in April 2027, after around 60 governments met this year in Santa Marta, Colombia, to discuss ending their dependence on coal, oil and gas.
“Our coastlines, our reefs and our communities are living with the consequences of fossil fuel dependence every day, and our people have earned the right to help shape the way forward,” Lynda Tabuya, Fiji’s climate minister, said in a statement announcing details of the conference.
Ocean monitoring gets a boost in New York
Amid record-breaking marine heat and seas rising at unprecedented speed, governments in New York announced new commitments to protect the world’s ocean, as efforts to bolster marine ecosystems and coastal communities rise up the political agenda.
On Wednesday, the EU and Canada announced more funding for a new Europe-led ocean monitoring system called OceanEye, launched in the aftermath of a failed attempt by the Trump administration to dismantle the largest existing network of deep-sea observatories.
During an event at UN headquarters in New York, EU President Ursula von der Leyen and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced around $163 million in new funding for the initiative, with the EU pledging €92 million ($105m) on top of existing seed funding and Canada pledging C$82 million (US$58m) over five years.
According to an EU statement, while OceanEye will collaborate with the Global Ocean Observing System, that network “remains vulnerable to financial shortfalls and geopolitical disruptions”. A group of 30 countries from Europe, Africa and the Americas joined an international initiative in support of OceanEye, including large coastal nations like Brazil, Namibia and Mexico.
Von der Leyen said OceanEye “can make us the leading ocean data provider in a matter of years”, including by launching new satellites and installing new observatories in the deep ocean. “From outer space to the deepest ocean, our funding helps us keep watch beneath the waves,” she added.
Carney said the initiative would help protect Canada’s Arctic region with real-time monitoring operating year-round. “We can’t protect what we can’t see,” he said, also highlighting that Canada had expanded conservation of its ocean territory from 1% a decade ago to 15% now.
In New York, a group of 19 countries said they are either developing or implementing plans to sustainably manage all of their ocean territory, with 12 new nations joining the initiative. In a joint communiqué, they called on more countries to sign up ahead of COP31.
Warnings of El Niño-fuelled extreme heat
Scientists and world leaders have raised the alarm over this year’s record-breaking marine temperatures, which have persisted above historical peaks for more than 100 days as the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon intensifies in the Pacific.
Extreme ocean heat could become a threat to coastal ecosystems and communities, experts fear. Water temperatures 1.5C above normal levels have also rapidly fuelled a strong hurricane in the Pacific in recent days.
Despite scientific calls for additional ocean conservation efforts, a report launched this week in New York warned that efforts to protect ocean ecosystems are lagging behind, with only 10% of the global ocean covered by conservation areas and just 3.5% designated as “effectively protected”.
The post Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood appeared first on Climate Home News.
Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood
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