Recent years have seen a rapid succession of climate-related records broken.
To name just a few, the world has witnessed record warmth in the Atlantic, unprecedented glacier melt, all-time low Antarctic sea ice extent, the Amazon’s worst drought since observations began and UK temperatures soaring past 40C for the first time.
In a review article, published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, my coauthors and I look at how the frequency of weather records is changing as the planet warms.
We find that the number of hot temperature records observed around the world since 1950 far exceed what would be expected in a million years in a world without human-caused climate change.
Specifically, we show that “all-time” daily hot records on land were more than four times higher in 2016-24 than they would have been in a world without climate change.
Meanwhile, daily maximum rainfall records were up 40% over the same time period and record cold events were twice as rare.
A key finding of our research is that it is the pace of global warming that controls the occurrence of records.
We show that, if the pace of warming were to slow down, the frequency of record-breaking hot events would start to decline – even if global temperatures continue to rise.
Counting records
By definition, records are supposed to be rare events, at least in a system that is not changing.
Statistics of record occurrence are remarkably simple. They are expected to become rarer the longer a measurement series gets.
The chance of observing a new record after 20 years of measurement is one in 20, or 5%. And after 100 years of observations, the chances of a new record drops to 1%.
For example, this is why it becomes increasingly difficult to break records in athletics as time goes by, unless training methods or sports equipment improve.
Record-breaking weather events – for example, the highest windspeed, most intense rainfall or hot and cold temperatures – also face these odds in a climate that is “stationary”.
However, today’s climate is not stationary, but warming at a very high pace. This has significant implications for the record count.
The plot below shows how the frequency of all-time hot records (dashed red line) and record cold events (dashed blue line) has changed since the 1960s. This is compared to the probability that would be expected under a stationary climate (black line).
(The plot uses ERA5, a reanalysis dataset, which combines observations and models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).)
It illustrates how the frequency of hot events declined more slowly than would be expected in a stationary climate since 1950, before increasing in the last 15 years. Meanwhile, the frequency of record cold events is declining more quickly than expected.
The record ratio
Tracking the ratio between the measured number of records and the one theoretically expected in a stationary climate – the “record ratio” – reveals the fingerprint of climate change.
Analysis of ERA5 data and Berkeley Earth surface temperature observations finds that the record ratio over the last decade for hot records over global land regions is more than four. For cold records, it is between 0.2 and 0.5, showing that record-breaking cold has declined
In other words, there were more than four times as many hot record events and less than half as many cold record events than would be expected without global warming.
In 2023 and 2024, the record ratio for hot events reached 5.5 and 6.2, respectively.
Record ratios tend to be higher over global oceans than on land. They are also higher for monthly or seasonal record temperatures than all-time daily records.
This is because natural variability in the climate tends to be smaller over oceans and for longer averaging periods, such as months and seasons.
Record counts directly relate to the relationship between rates of warming and natural fluctuations in the climate. This is sometimes referred to as the “signal-to-noise ratio”. (The “signal” being the long-term trend of climate change and “noise” referring to short-term fluctuations of natural variability.)
As a result, event types and regions with a higher signal-to-noise ratio tend to see a greater number of records.
Another way of illustrating the signal of climate change is by counting the total number of records in a measurement series.
In a stationary climate, there should be about five records in 100 years of temperature measurements, 7.5 in 1,000 years and less than 10 in 10,000 years.
However, our analysis of records in two measurement series shows how the number of record-breaking events has become significantly higher as the climate has changed.
For example, as the figure on the left below illustrates, a new annual record for average global temperature has been set 25 times over the past 175 years.
Meanwhile, the figure on the right shows how, in the Pacific north-west, a new five-day average heat record has been set 14 times within the last 75 years. The spike in temperature in 2021 reflects the brutal heatwave that killed hundreds of people and brought devastating wildfires that almost entirely destroyed the Canadian village of Lytton.
(In both figures, the warm records are marked by pink circles.)
According to fundamental laws of statistics, 14 new records would not be expected in more than a million years in a climate that is not warming.
It is worth noting that some climate variables, including ocean heat content, sea level rise and minimum glacier or ice sheet volumes, are changing so relentlessly that new record levels are currently set every year.
Record-shattering events
Record-shattering events are a subset of record-breaking events whose magnitude exceeds the previous event by a large margin.
In our research, we define this as more than one standard deviation, which is a measure of how spread out data is from the average.
(The exact value of standard deviation varies for different parts of the world. For example, when it comes to year-to-year average temperatures, one standard deviation is typically 2-3C in the Arctic, but less than 0.5C over the ocean).
These events of unprecedented intensity are often very impactful as they strongly exceed the conditions that society or ecosystems have experienced in the past.
The 2021 heatwave in the Pacific north-west, mentioned above, is a forbidding example.
Our research finds that the large number of record-shattering events in the past three decades is the consequence of a very high warming rate.
Using a simple timeseries model, we illustrate why the pace of warming is the key factor explaining the occurrence of record-shattering events.
In the left-hand figure, we assume a 150-year period of no warming followed by some linear warming at three different rates, which is a very simplistic approximation of historical and future warming pathways.
The right-hand figure illustrates what happens to the probability of record-shattering events in the Pacific north-west region under these three simplified pathways. It shows that the probability of record-shattering events at first rapidly increases and then stabilises. And the level at which the probability stabilises is greater the higher the rate of warming.
We therefore conclude that the high frequency of record-shattering hot extremes in recent years is controlled by the very high rate of warming caused by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
This tight coupling of record counts to the rate or speed of warming implies that there will be early benefits of slowing down global warming.
In our research, we look at how the probability of hot and cold records changes under different emissions reduction scenarios. To do this, we analysed the occurrence of record hot and cold events in climate model projections in the CMIP6 archive.
The figure below shows how stabilising temperatures by achieving net-zero carbon emissions (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) will lead to a rapid decline of records, even if temperatures remain higher than in the historical period.
(It is worth noting that, while the number of records will decline under this lower-emissions scenario, the number of heatwaves would remain higher than today.)
Under intermediate (SSP2-4.5), high (SSP3-7.0) and very high emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, the number of records would continue to increase to levels much higher than today.
Rainfall records
We would also expect rainfall records to become progressively rarer in a stationary climate.
However, we find that record-breaking heavy precipitation occurred about 40% more often in 2015-24 than would be expected in a stationary climate. Many record-shattering heavy rainfall extremes occurred in the mid-latitudes and led to flooding which had large impacts.
(Calculating the frequency of records is more challenging for rainfall than for temperature, given small-scale variations and uncertainties in rainfall observations.)
The greater number of record-breaking rainfall events is due to an increase in precipitation intensity over most land regions as the atmosphere warms, as well as larger variations of rainfall intensity on a day-to-day, season-to-season and year-to-year basis .
We also find that the margin by which previous rainfall records are broken tends to become larger and larger in time. This is due to the “non-symmetric” distribution of rainfall – where there are many days with little precipitation, less with heavy precipitation and very few with very extreme precipitation.
It is therefore not surprising to see record-shattering precipitation events exceeding previous records by 20-50% in intensity, even if overall precipitation intensity increases by roughly 7% per degree of warming.
Preparing for the future
Efforts to adapt to climate change are typically informed by the worst events observed in recent generations.
This means that society is often underprepared for record-shattering events – which by their very definition are of unprecedented intensity.
Qualitative and quantitative storyline methods can offer insight into the many record-breaking events to come into the future – and, thus, help society prepare for escalating climate impacts.
These methods combine information from historical and paleoarchives, long measurement series, targeted climate model experiments, statistical and machine learning methods and weather forecasting systems.
Ultimately, these methods can improve society’s preparedness to climate change, so that the next record-shattering extreme does not come as a surprise.
The post Guest post: How climate change is fuelling record-breaking extreme weather appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: How climate change is fuelling record-breaking extreme weather
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A group of farmers plans to sue the developers of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) in a British court, claiming the project breaches the Ugandan constitution and climate and environment law.
In a previously unreported letter before action, sent to the developers’ UK-based arm in January, the farmers say they and their livelihoods risk being harmed by climate change which the pipeline will worsen by generating millions of tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.
Their law firm, London-based Leigh Day, plans to file a formal claim in the next few months, in which it will ask for construction of the pipeline – which will cost around $5.6 billion to build, spans Uganda and Tanzania and is four-fifths complete – to be halted.
The lawsuit has been crowdfunded by donations from over 40,000 people, coordinated by the Avaaz campaign group, which promote the case as “one final chance to stop one of the worst oil pipelines on the planet”.
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The pipeline is a joint venture led by French company TotalEnergies, with smaller stakes owned by Uganda, Tanzanian and Chinese national oil firms. But it is operated by EACOP Ltd, a company registered to an office in Canary Wharf, the tallest building in London’s financial district.
Leigh Day solicitor Joe Snape, who represents the group of farmers, said EACOP highlights how corporations in the Global North are profiting from fossil fuel extraction projects in the Global South which also suffer most from their worsening of climate change.
Ugandan law tested in UK court
The group of four farmers accuses EACOP Ltd of breaching their right to a clean and healthy environment under the Ugandan constitution, as well as its legal obligations under Uganda’s National Environment Act and National Climate Change Act.
Leigh Day solicitor Joe Snape, who represents the farmers, told Climate Home News that Ugandan law has novel clauses allowing people to make environmental claims without having to demonstrate a precise link to their own loss. They just have to show that the action complained of threatens, or is likely to threaten, efforts to reduce emissions or adapt to climate change, he said.
However, these clauses have not yet been tested in court, so it will be up to British judges, if they accept the case, to interpret how they apply in practice.
Leigh Day is keen to use the UK’s legal system because it perceives it as more impartial and efficient than that of Uganda, Snape said. A climate lawsuit filed in Uganda more than a decade ago by a group of young people has yet to conclude.
EACOP has been subject to repeated lawsuits in several countries, none of which have succeeded. A case at the East African Court of Justice, brought by campaign groups against Uganda and Tanzania, was rejected on procedural grounds last November.
A separate ongoing lawsuit in TotalEnergies’ home country of France – a refiled version of an earlier failed claim – cannot stop EACOP going ahead, but it does seek damages from TotalEnergies for affected communities.
Thousands already displaced
The pipeline, which will link Uganda’s Lake Albert oil fields to Africa’s east coast in Tanzania, is around 80% completed according to its developers, with first oil exports possible as early as October.
Thousands of people have already been displaced by the pipeline, with compensation paid and many training schemes – whose quality has been criticised – already completed.
Despite this progress, the farmers’ legal team say that a court could still stop the pipeline from being completed. Any contractual or compensation issues arising from the stoppage and the billions of dollars of sunk costs would have to be dealt with separately, said Snape.
Gerald Barekye, a farmer, researcher and campaigner, from the pipeline-affected Hoima district, will be one of the claimants. He said that Ugandan communities were already living with flooding, drought and food insecurity caused by climate change.
“Allowing these oil companies to complete the construction of the EACOP pipeline and extract millions of barrels of oil, which will produce millions of tonnes of emissions, will only make this situation in this region worse and deepen our suffering,” he said.
Agriculture, which makes up a fifth of Uganda’s GDP and employs two-thirds of its population, is likely to be affected by falling yields, rising plant pests and diseases, reduced suitable for crop growing and changes to growing seasons caused by climate change.
As well as the climate impacts, they will argue that the pipeline will have a significant impact on local nature and wildlife from possible oil spills, habitat fragmentation, noise pollution and new infrastructure, and poses a threat to major water resources.
Michel Forst, UN Special Rapporteur on environmental defenders under the Aarhus Convention, has raised further concerns about “serious allegations of persistent and widespread attacks and threats” against environmental defenders in Uganda over the project.
In 2022, Ugandan police arrested nine activists protesting against EACOP. One protester, Nabuyanda John Solomon, told Climate Home News at the time that police had broken one man’s arm and hit another in the eye with a baton.
EACOP Limited did not respond to a request for comment.
The post Ugandan farmers use British court to try to stop oil pipeline appeared first on Climate Home News.
Ugandan farmers use British court to try to stop oil pipeline
Pepukaye Bardouille is the Director of the Bridgetown Initiative and Special Advisor in the Prime Minister’s Office of Barbados. Kerrie Symmonds is Barbados’ Minister of Energy and Business and Senior Minister coordinating Productive Sectors.
When conflict erupts in one region, consequences can reverberate across the globe. Beyond the tragic human toll, the economic impact is palpable. In 2022, the war in Ukraine illustrated this clearly: fractured supply chains and soaring oil prices sent fuel import bills skyrocketing. And again, today, as oil prices spike amidst conflict in the Middle East, the stakes could not be higher, in particular for Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
For SIDS, resilience and energy have always been inseparable. When a hurricane hits, power lines fall. When shipments stall, oil dependence becomes a liability. Yet these countries also hold a strategic advantage in the form of abundant wind, sun, waves, and in many cases geothermal resources.
Harnessed effectively, these can power entire economies cost-effectively. With this in mind, SIDS have set some of the world’s most ambitious climate targets, with several pledging 100% renewable electricity within the next decade or two. And they have made progress: installed renewable capacity across SIDS tripled from 3.3 GW in 2014 to 9.4 GW in 2024.
But execution and financing still lag well behind ambition – and in the midst of an oil shock, closing that gap isn’t a policy preference for SIDS. It’s a matter of survival.
Lessons from Barbados
Barbados offers an example of what a credible pathway looks like. Its 50MW Lamberts and Castle project will be the country’s first utility-scale onshore wind farm and one of the largest in the Caribbean – building on a renewables base that already supplies 16% of power capacity.
Developed as a public-private partnership, it evolved from a 10MW concept into a utility-scale investment. That journey holds several lessons for other SIDS looking to accelerate their energy transition.
First, be honest about what is politically palatable and ensure the population shares in the upside. Many SIDS operate state utilities that view private power producers as threats to sovereignty or revenue. But private actors often bring the capital and expertise that large-scale projects require.
The answer is smart design. Barbados models this well, pairing private generation ownership with structures that ensure national benefit, including opportunities for citizens to invest directly.
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Second, ensure that the financials really work. Small islands face high per-megawatt costs, which logistics compound: transporting and installing large wind turbines can require port reinforcements, specialist cranes, and road widening.
These numbers rarely appear in headline budgets but can quietly kill a deal. Financing packages must therefore cover not just generation, but storage, grid upgrades, and the full logistics chain. These are too often treated as afterthoughts when they are, in practice, the difference between a project that gets built and one that doesn’t.
Collaboration required
Third, development partners must streamline energy transition support without compromising sustainability. Environmental and social studies, bird and bat surveys, community consultations, and grid analyses all take time, and rightly so. But their multiyear development timelines before a tender is issued are incompatible with 2030 or even 2035 energy targets.
SIDS need simplified processes with upfront permitting clarity, clearer regulatory pathways, and predefined safeguards. Development partners must move from project-by-project structuring to practical, time-sensitive and replicable models that reduce procedural drag while upholding environmental rigor.
Fourth, recognize that land access is critical to national energy security. In land-constrained countries, which most SIDS are, a handful of parcels can determine whether critical capacity is built. In Barbados, we expanded the Lamberts and Castle wind project site from 30MW to 50MW through careful planning and negotiation. These decisions can make or break a project’s financials, so landowners must be partners in the process, not obstacles to it.
Finally, mandate ‘all of government’ teams with the stamina to deliver. The Lamberts and Castle project advanced because the Ministry of Energy and Business, Barbados National Energy Company, Barbados Light and Power, community stakeholders and International Finance Corporation – the government’s transaction adviser – worked as a unified team.
Cheaper electricity and greater security
Energy transition projects need cross-agency partners empowered to make timely decisions, and a shared mission – all cemented by the ability to remove bottlenecks at the highest level. Institutional collaboration is not a nice-to-have, it is the engine of delivery.
Resilience cannot be outsourced, nor achieved through pledges alone. It must be built: panel by panel, battery by battery, turbine by turbine, grid by grid.
Building on the progress at Lamberts and Castle, Barbados is exploring the possibility of tripling its wind energy capacity through a public–private partnership model. Importantly, this expansion will not compromise food security. Wind turbines typically occupy less than 5% of the land area, allowing the remaining space to continue supporting agricultural production, another key resilience priority for Barbados.
In Barbados, new turbines will soon turn in the same trade winds that once powered sugar windmills, this time delivering cheaper electricity, greater economic security, and the ability to meet climate goals on our own terms. By putting renewables at the heart of resilience, SIDS can secure energy independence and lead the world in climate and economic security.
The post How small island states can make renewables the bedrock of resilience appeared first on Climate Home News.
How small island states can make renewables the bedrock of resilience
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