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There are days when the sulphur-like, toxic smell coming from the nearby oil facilities is so potent that Azuh Chinenye struggles to go outside her house early in the morning. “When you inhale, you as a person, your body system, and every other thing will change… you can’t stand the odour,” she said.

Chinenye lives in Oyigbo, a town less than 20 miles (32 km) from Port Harcourt, in the Niger Delta, the heart of Nigeria’s main oil-producing region.

Signs of the industry are everywhere in Oyigbo. Active flare stacks stand just metres from homes and businesses, whose walls are caked in soot. Close to a primary school, Climate Home News saw oil spilling from a corroded underground pipe.

The local oil field here was for many years owned and operated by Shell, until it was sold to a Nigerian firm for $533 million in early 2021. Since the sale, gas flaring has increased dramatically at Oyigbo, despite the new operator’s promise to “protect our planet” and the health of communities.

A local doctor and residents told Climate Home News that the opposite is happening in reality, as people struggle with the effects of noxious pollutants released by flaring at production facilities close to their homes.

Flaring worsens climate crisis

Fifteen times more gas was burned at the Oyigbo field in 2024 compared to 2020, according to an analysis of satellite data prepared for Climate Home News by SkyTruth, an environmental watchdog. This pattern is repeated at other fields previously owned by Shell across the Niger Delta, the data shows.

Flaring occurs when gas produced during oil drilling is burned off, instead of being utilised. The process releases vast amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, a potent planet-heating greenhouse gas, alongside toxic chemicals.

Failure to tackle gas flaring pushes global climate goals further out of reach, as cutting methane emissions from the oil and gas industry is widely seen by climate and energy experts as a quick win to slow global warming in the short term.

Shell claims to have significantly reduced its emissions and says it achieved zero routine flaring last year, but our analysis reveals that this was driven primarily by selling off high-emission assets – from the US to Nigeria – which are then free to continue polluting, albeit under different management.

After Shell divestments, flaring on the rise

A spokesperson for Shell told Climate Home News by email that, when the energy giant selects buyers for divestments, it assesses “a number of factors such as their financial strength, operating culture and environmental performance” and shares emissions reduction plans for the assets, where relevant.

But Shell does not monitor the performance of those assets once it has handed over control to the buyer, the spokesperson said, adding that regulation of operations by the new owner is carried out by governments.

After years of staying flat at the global level, flaring has risen again since 2023, including in Nigeria, where smaller home-grown firms have been ramping up production seeking to maximise oil revenues while lacking the expertise to prevent flaring, according to a World Bank report.

To understand more about how this wasteful and dangerous process continues to harm people’s lives, Climate Home News went to the Niger Delta, a part of the world unique for how many residents are forced to live in close proximity to flare stacks.

New owner promised sustainable production

Rising gas flaring in Oyigbo is harming the wellbeing of the local community. Photo: Vivian Chime

Chief Maduabuchi Felix Achiele at his home in Oyigbo. Photo: Vivian Chime

Rising gas flaring in Oyigbo is harming the wellbeing of the local community. Photo: Vivian Chime

Chief Maduabuchi Felix Achiele at his home in Oyigbo. Photo: Vivian Chime

“Gas flaring has increased in the years since Shell left,” said Chief Maduabuchi Felix Achiele, a community leader in Oyigbo. “In a week, we can observe two, three, four instances of flaring but when Shell was here, it was just once in a while.”

The field has been owned by Trans-Niger Oil and Gas (TNOG) since January 2021, along with the rest of the assets within the OML 17 oil block. The company that runs operations in the block – Lagos-based Heirs Energies – has boasted about turning an “underperforming asset” into an economic success after taking it over from Shell.

Heirs Energies said it has doubled production at OML 17 without that coming at the expense of environmental and climate integrity. “We can create a symmetry, a symbiotic relationship between oil and gas, the environment and people […] sustainability is infused in what we are doing,” its CEO Osayande Igiehon said in an interview late last year.

    Heirs Energies announced an agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to capture and monetise gas from OML 17 in December, though the company did not give a timeframe for when this project would be completed. Heirs failed to respond to questions sent by Climate Home News for this story.

    On its website, the company says it is “committed to eliminating routine flaring and greenhouse gas emissions by 2025”. But the emissions figures and experience of the local community tell a radically different story.

    Jump in flaring volumes

    In OML 17, the vast oil block that covers much of the urban area of Port Harcourt and its surrounding towns like Oyigbo, gas flaring volumes grew sevenfold between 2020 – the last year of Shell’s involvement – and 2024, according to data presented to Climate Home News by SkyTruth.

    To conduct this analysis, we tracked sales of onshore Nigerian assets, determined the location of each site using open source data, and then worked with SkyTruth to monitor flaring from these locations using data from the Earth Observation Group at the Colorado School of Mines.

    Within OML 17, at Agbada, about a 30-minute drive north of Port Harcourt city centre, flaring doubled immediately after the sale in 2021. The following year, it almost doubled again and has remained close to that mark since. In Nkali, another asset within OML 17, flaring was nearly four times higher in the year after the sale.

    While SkyTruth’s analysis was only able to use figures up to 2024, flaring remained high at these oil blocks throughout 2025, according to publicly available data from the NNPC.

    This pattern can be seen in other oil blocks. Shell lost its right to operate OML 11 in August 2021, a block that spans the Ogoniland region. This helped the company to record a drop in emissions from both greenhouse gases and volatile organic compounds, while flaring went up under the block’s new operator, a subsidiary of the government-owned NNPC.

    “Catastrophic” for communities

    Communities in Ogoniland are seeking reparations for the decades-long environmental devastation caused by oil drilling. When it took control of the assets in 2021, the NNPC said the firm’s operations would be driven by “a social contract that would put the people and environment of the Niger Delta above pecuniary considerations”. Nonetheless, gas flaring tripled between 2021 and 2024 across all OML 11 fields, according to the analysis prepared by SkyTruth.

    It was a similar story at Nembe Creek, part of the OML 29 block sold by Shell to Nigerian firm Aiteo for $1.7bn in March 2015. That year, flaring rose by around a quarter and then doubled in 2016.

    For blighted Niger Delta communities, oil spill clean-ups are another broken promise

    Production at the facility fell dramatically following a huge oil spill in 2021 that dumped 20,000 barrels of oil per day into local creeks for a month. Gas flaring at Nembe Creek spiked again in 2024, to an annual volume 54% higher than in 2014, when Shell still ran the field. In June 2024, another spill forced Aiteo to halt production.

    Andrew Baxter, senior director for business and energy transition at the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), told Climate Home News: “Flaring and spills harm human health. Flaring is not just a climate menace, it’s catastrophic to the communities that live around these facilities.”

    It also wastes energy, he said. “This is a depressing waste of resources when there are still significant challenges around energy access,” he added.

    Q&A: “False” climate solutions help keep fossil fuel firms in business

    Given the need to address climate change, it’s important that when majors sell fossil fuel assets, buyers have comparable green targets and operating standards, according to organisations like EDF.

    Baxter argued that the way Shell managed its troubled oil operations in the Niger Delta over decades had limited its options when selling them on.

    “When operators have a poor environmental record and substandard record of community engagement, it should come as little surprise when they cannot attract many interested buyers for those assets. This rule applies globally,” he said.

    Big Oil’s “paper decarbonisation”

    Between 2016 and 2023, more than 60% of Shell’s emissions reductions came from divestments. That matters because, despite these emissions no longer being Shell’s responsibility, they are still heating up the Earth’s climate.

    Krista Halttunen, a visiting researcher at Imperial College London who focuses on the future of the oil industry, told Climate Home News that companies like Shell are practising “paper decarbonisation”, reducing emissions in their annual reports rather than the real world.

    “This story shows the limits of company-driven emissions reduction,” she said. “Very few companies are reducing real-world emissions. Fossil fuel companies can’t meaningfully decarbonise without changing their business model, because their whole reason for being is digging up material that will add more carbon to the atmosphere.”

    Shell did not reply to Climate Home News’ questions about how it had achieved its emission reductions.

    It also appears that Shell’s achievement of reaching zero routine flaring in 2025 was achieved in large part through the sale of its Nigerian assets. In March of that year Shell sold its onshore Nigerian assets to a consortium of companies called Renaissance Africa. Earlier, in 2023, Shell had stated that its remaining Nigerian assets accounted for around half of total routine and non-routine flaring in its integrated gas and upstream facilities.

    Removing Nigerian assets from its portfolio, whether in the Renaissance deal or earlier transactions, may have helped transform Shell’s flaring emissions, but for people living in the Niger Delta life has stayed the same.

    Active flaring at an oil production facility in Oyigbo seen in January 2026. Photo: Vivian Chime

    An oil puddle near a community path in Oyigbo. The local chief said oil often spills from corroded underground pipelines. Photo: Vivian Chime

    Active flaring at an oil production facility in Oyigbo seen in January 2026. Photo: Vivian Chime

    An oil puddle near a community path in Oyigbo. The local chief said oil often spills from corroded underground pipelines. Photo: Vivian Chime

    “Flaring is not new in this community,” explained Theodore Ike Ogu, a 60-year-old smallholder farmer who lives in Oyigbo. “We are suffering and flaring is increasing.”

    Here, temperatures regularly hover around 35 degrees Celsius during the day, with humidity often exceeding 50%. When the flares are going full blast, the heat for those living and working nearby can be unbearable, locals said. At night, when the town is quiet, the noise from the flares keeps people awake.

    Chief Maduabuchi recalled that residents used to collect water during the rainy season to drink and wash. “You can’t even use it to wash because, as it comes down, it is dirty because of the smoke,” he complained.

    Health risks from toxic chemicals

    Gas flaring releases harmful chemicals, and numerous studies, including some conducted in the Niger Delta, have linked living close to flares with being more likely to contract forms of cancer and respiratory illnesses.

    Complaints from local communities about health issues and unexplained deaths have been rising in oil-producing communities such as Oyigbo as gas flaring intensifies, according to Dr Bieye Renner Briggs, a Port Harcourt-based public health physician and environmental advocate.

    While he cautions that a direct link has not yet been scientifically proven in the Niger Delta, Dr Briggs says the connection is “probable”, given similar findings in other oil regions worldwide. He recommended performing routine autopsies in the local communities to establish clear evidence of whether deaths are caused by gas flaring or oil pollution.

    In Oyigbo, flames can be seen rising from flare stacks located near homes and businesses. Source: Airbus / Google Earth – Image from 30/05/2025

    In Oyigbo, flames can be seen rising from flare stacks located near homes and businesses. Source: Airbus / Google Earth – Image from 30/05/2025

    Dr Briggs warned that people living near flare sites face a wide range of serious health hazards, from hypertension and cardiomyopathy, which can increase the risk of heart failure, to asthma, chronic bronchitis and kidney disease.

    Soot particles released by flaring represent a particularly acute health risk, he warned. These are small enough to bypass the body’s natural defences and enter the bloodstream, increasing the risk of cancers and other conditions, he told Climate Home News. “Everything a smoker will suffer and more is what somebody that is exposed to soot will suffer,” he said, noting that, unlike smokers, residents can do little to limit their constant exposure.

    The oil companies contacted by Climate Home News for this article, including Shell, did not respond to requests for comment on the health effects of flaring.

    “I have different health issues: incessant lung pains, at times a cough, all those things, catarrh,” said Theodore Ike Ogu, adding there are “so many things that we notice health-wise which we believe are due to flaring”.

    Azuh Chinenye’s husband, Kelechi Prince Azuh, died in May last year after suffering from breathing difficulties and frequent asthma attacks. “He was 49 years old,” she said, fighting back tears. “You see his poster outside there and three of the children are in university. He didn’t even see them complete their first year.”

    Azuh Chinenye said gas flaring has had a major impact on her life. Photo: Vivian Chime

    A poster commemorating Kelechi Prince Azuh who died last year after suffering from breathing difficulties. Photo: Vivian Chime

    Azuh Chinenye said gas flaring has had a major impact on her life. Photo: Vivian Chime

    A poster commemorating Kelechi Prince Azuh who died last year after suffering from breathing difficulties. Photo: Vivian Chime

    “Nowhere else to go”

    Oil production, meanwhile, has increased at former Shell fields. Extracting oil from mature fields like those in Nigeria produces a significant amount of associated gas and, in the absence of funding and infrastructure to make use of this, it is often flared.

    Last May, Heirs Energies CEO Igiehon told the Financial Times that Nigerian firms could build better relationships with locals, after years of tension with oil majors over frequent spills and the destruction of local livelihoods. “We’re able to move around unfettered because we have a robust relationship with the communities,” he argued.

    The increase in flaring in blocks like OML 17 has tested that idea.

    Colombia aims to launch fossil fuel transition platform at first global conference

    “Shell was great,” said Chief Maduabuchi, who explained that the company provided healthcare and food to the local community. The new operator, he says, “only gives us a small amount of rice, unlike Shell which used to give us each 50kg”.

    Asked why she has chosen to stay in Oyigbo after her husband’s death, Azuh Chinenye explains that it’s much cheaper to live here than in the centre of Port Harcourt. She uses her inhaler when she struggles to breathe and tries not to go outside when the soot gets bad.

    “I can easily pack up, but this is my compound, this is my community, and there is nowhere else I will go,” she said.

    Cover photo: A woman empties a plastic bowl filled with tapioca, which is derived from cassava paste, on sewn sacks laid on the ground close to a gas flaring furnace in Ughelli, Delta State, Nigeria September 17, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde)

    The post Gas flaring soars in Niger Delta post-Shell, afflicting communities   appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Gas flaring soars in Niger Delta post-Shell, afflicting communities  

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    Climate Change

    Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change

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    Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.

    Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”

    The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.

    On beaches of Gaza and Tel Aviv, two tales of one heatwave

    The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.

    Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.

    A displaced Palestinian child fills water containers on July 2, 2026 in Gaza City, Gaza. (Photo by Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images)

    Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.

    Green reconstruction of Gaza

    Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.

    While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.

      The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.

      But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.

      With occupation, targets conditional

      In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.

      Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.

      Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.

      That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.

      To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.

      In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.

      A bus rapid transit system in Sao Paulo (Flickr/EMBARQ BRASIL)

      To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.

      The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.

      The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.

      The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.

      The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change

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      Climate Change

      Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026

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      Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.

      Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.

      Line chart showing that UK solar generation reached an all-time high during record-hot summer 2026

      Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.

      This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.

      Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.

      June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.

      It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.

      In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.

      According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.

      Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

      While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.

      June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.

      As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.

      The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.

      In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.

      (Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)

      According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.

      This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.

      In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.

      Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.

      Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:

      “[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.

      Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.

      * This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.

      The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

      Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026

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      Climate Change

      How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts

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      Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.

      Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.

      This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.

      Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

      Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.

      In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.

      1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

      2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields

      3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave

      4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026

      5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low

      6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

      Article Contents

      1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

      Bar chart showing that France is due to see the largest drops in cereal production in the EU in 2026. The bar chart shows that France's cereal production in 2026 has dropped -7.7 Mt of followed by Germany (-3.5 Mt), Poland (-3.2 Mt), Spain (-2.9 Mt), and Hungary (-2.6)
      Changes in cereal production in 26 EU countries between 2025 and 2026. Malta is excluded due to a lack of available data. Source: European Commission.

      France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.

      French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.

      The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.

      Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.

      Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.

      This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:

      “In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”

      2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields

      Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.

      Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.

      The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.

      Bar chart showing that Slovakia and Austria are due to see the largest cereal yield declines in 2026. The bar chart shows that both Slovakia and Austria have seen their cereal yields drop -1.3 tonnes per hectare over 2025-26.
      Changes in cereal yields in 26 EU countries between 2025 and 2026. Malta is excluded due to a lack of available data. Source: European Commission.

      Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.

      The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.

      3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave

      The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.

      Bar chart showing that the June heatwave in 2026 led to around €2bn in cereal production losses in Europe. The bar chart shows that France is the EU country that lost the most revenue, with an estimated loss of €891 million, followed by Hungary (with an estimated loss of €444 million) and Spain (with an estimated loss of €276)
      Estimates of revenue lost due to changes in production forecasts between June and July 2026. Source: ECIU.

      The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.

      The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.

      ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.

      Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.

      Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.

      4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026

      If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.

      Line chart showing that UK cereal yields could hit lowest levels since at least 1990 this year.
      Yields of cereals and oilseed rape in the UK over 1990-2026. Source: Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.

      Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.

      ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.

      Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.

      Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.

      5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low

      France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.

      The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.

      The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.

      Line chart showing that maize production in France is due to reach lowest levels since 1980
      Maize production in France over 1980-2026. Source: Agreste.

      This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.

      Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.

      6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

      Chart showing that EU cereal production is set to reduce by 9% in 2026.
      Production of cereal crops in Europe over 1993-2026. The “other” category includes oats, rye, sorghum, millet and buckwheat. Source: European Commission.

      Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.

      Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.

      Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.

      Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.

      The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.

      How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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