OPENING SUMMARY:
Upon the completion of writing my own climate story, I found a sudden interest in learning more about my father’s story. In an era where the effects of climate change are becoming increasingly evident, taking a step back to hear the experiences of others and reflect on the past becomes crucial. Made possible through my Talk Climate internship with Climate Generation, I was able to ask Ramil Villarama, whom I like to call “Dad,” a set of questions to understand his early years that were spent on a family farm. He shared his unique perspectives on how the environment he knew as a child has evolved, the lessons he learned from the land, and his thoughts on the urgent issue of climate change that affects us all today. As we delved into these cherished memories and insightful anecdotes, we uncovered not only the joys and challenges of growing up on a farm but also the stark contrasts between then and now in the context of climate change. Thank you for tuning in and enjoy the interview segment!
INTERVIEW:
Ramier: Hello Dad!
Dad: Hey, how are you son?
Ramier: Good! So we’re gonna start with the first part of the questions…so this one is kind of the section about your farm childhood, then we’ll move on to one more focused on climate change, then one more focused on the future and future goals.
Dad: That sounds good, I like that!
Farm childhood
Ramier: First question is, can you share your experiences of growing up on a family farm? How long did you grow up on the farm, what were some of your earliest memories of farming practices…What are some of the things you planted or did on the farm?
Dad: I’m really that you are having interests as far as my childhood…me growing up on a farm, it’s really a rewarding experience. I had so many wonderful memories and experiences growing up on a family farm. I used to help my dad plant various vegetables like eggplants, tomatoes, corn, bitter gourd or we call it ampalaya in Tagalog, and of course, rice. Apart from these vegetables, we would plant and grow melons and watermelons as well. It’s been an amazing and rewarding to say the least, given all those experiences that I had and seeing these plants grow and bear fruits. I grew up and lived in the farm for almost 22 years…in terms of the farming practices, I can remember that we would rely on rains apart from irrigation in making sure the plants, vegetables, fruits get enough water. Given the nature of the plants that we grow and the type of the soil/land, we will grow them alternately, which means some plants are best grown during wet or rainy season while others are in dry season. You know, I also helped my dad raise cattles and carabaos…I remembered that we will gather cow manure to be used as fertilizers and it actually helps improve the quality of the soil which is essential to growing healthy vegetables, plants, and fruits.
Ramier: Kind of to follow up on that question, how did you learn life in a different way by living on a farm…let’s say compared to someone I guess who grew up in a city…but also, how did it teach you responsibility at a young age?
Dad: That’s really a good question…living on a farm actually taught me to appreciate the simple things. It has taught me to be humble, the value of working hard, be respectful and persevere, and be patient cause I’ve really admired and respected my parents, particularly my day, as he’s been working really hard to provide our daily needs and that’s all coming from the farm. It actually taught me, you know, responsibility and compassion at a young age since I’ve always helped my parents, particularly my dad, with the planting and nourishing i.e., watering and applying fertilizers to the plants/vegetables we grow. I will always offer help and ensure that I, you know, make contributions with the daily tasks in growing our vegetables and fruits, feeding our cattles, etc.
Ramier: Cool, cool! So, I kinda took this question from something I read, from a book that also kinda talked about someone’s experiences growing up on a family and basically the question is, how did you have to work with and not against nature to make sure the farm succeeds?
Dad: Ya, that’s an awesome question! Again, you know, being a farmer or being a child or a kid of a farmer who grew up on a farm, we would rely heavily on nature to make sure that the farm or the farming succeeds right. Rain is very vital and a significant source of water for healthy soil and to grow the plants…so occasionally we would rely on heavy rains because that’s really good for the plants…and in the same manner, equally important is the heat of the sun, given that once you do the harvest, you need to dry the crops, especially rice, before it goes to milling. So nature plays an important role for the farm, for the planting to succeed. So we should take care of the nature, our nature, given that this provides, I would say, help, various help, regarding making sure the farming or the planting succeeds.
Ramier: That’s very interesting, especially in the book that I read, he talked about like…kind of all four seasons because he was from California, so kind of comparing that to the Philippines where it is only a lot of heat and rain, not really a spring or winter season is very interesting.
Dad: That’s very true! So in the Philippines, it’s either, it’s like there’s two seasons, right? When compared to the, to the States or the US, there’s like four seasons, but in the Philippines, sometimes I would joke around cause in terms of the weather or the temperature, it’s like hot or hotter, but during rainy season obviously there’s like rains and a lot of rains…you know, which as you can imagine, excessive rains don’t really help, cause it causes flooding.
Ramier: Ya so it’s kind of like both the positives and negatives of the seasons…so kind of to go off that, like as a child growing up on a family farm, did you have any experiences or realizations that made you more aware of the importance of addressing climate change? In other words, like how has your childhood shaped your understanding of the environment and climate…and I ask, I ask this because like I know back then people weren’t really thinking about climate change…it’s kind of more present knowledge and thought that people think more about now, but in the past, I feel like it is more something that just happened and people were kind of just farming to make a living and not really thinking about climate change.
Dad: Ya, I kinda find this question interesting, to say the least. Definitely! My response to that is definitely…growing up on a family farm, my experiences and realizations have really taught and made me more aware of the importance of addressing climate change. As a matter of fact and as I mentioned earlier, you know, rains, the heat of the sun are very important in terms of making sure that the plants grow healthy, right…but there are plants that are really suitable growing during the rainy season, while others are better during, or better suited, planting during dry season. As you can imagine, given the shifts and changes in weather patterns, this can really or tremendously impact the way we do farming or the growing of the plants.
Ramier: Kind of to follow up on that last part, like, can you explain more of the specific challenges you and your family faced due to the changing weather conditions?
Dad: Sure, ya there were specific challenges, you know we faced due to changing weather conditions that I can remember. As an example would be, when there’s drought and less rain, farmers or my dad will be heavily dependent on irrigation systems, which you would know becomes costly because you would have to buy fuel or gas to power the pumps…so obviously you know that’s an extra expense right, which kinda affects the profitable of farming. Then, the quality of soil diminishes, which means you can’t really expect good harvest. On the other hand, when you need to dry your crops right, like rice or corn, you’ll heavily rely on sufficient amount of sunlight to make sure the crops are totally dry and ready for milling.
Climate Change
Ramier: Cool! So we’re gonna move on to kind of this climate change and more specifics about climate change. So the question I have is how has climate change impacted your family farm over the years, and what are some specific changes you have observed? Then, to add on to that, how has the climate in the Philippines changed, if so, since your childhood?
Dad: Ya, again that is another good question…so I can say that climate change definitely impacted our family farm over the years. It’s been, as we go, harder to grow plants as you couldn’t really predict the weather due to climate change wherein, as I said, there’s change or shifts in weather patterns right…so, some specific changes that I’ve observed were obviously that we need to exercise crop rotation, the rotation of crops…wherein, let’s say this season, you’re just gonna grow rice, then the following season, you grow watermelon, so that’s what I’ve seen thus far. It actually became harder for other crops to grow due to shifts in weather patterns hence, you know, we would look into growing a different plant to really cope with the ever-changing weather patterns and given that the climate in the Philippines became, I would say, unpredictable given the climate change, however, for matter I’ve seen it’s getting worse nowadays, because of industrialization, pollution, and people not being cognisant right…they don’t really, I would say for a lack of a better word, take care of nature. Back in the day, when I was still living on our farm, we could still manage and cope up with the shift in weather patterns because before it’s not that worse, it’s manageable.
Ramier: Ya for sure! So I could tell that you guys as a family and as yourself, had to adjust farming practices in response to climate change and I think, of course, that’s really important…so, like you said, due to the changing weather you resorted to crop rotation, kind of to add to that, have you guys done any other adaptations or do you know what kind of is happening on that farm right now and what you’re family is doing to ensure the sustainability of the farm moving forward?
Dad: Ya, I mean like I said earlier, we had to make adjustments as far as farming practices in response to the ever-changing climate. Obviously, given the ever-changing weather, one of the things we’ve done was we resorted to crop rotation, that’s one…and the second, my dad actually built some irrigation well, given that, you know, you can’t really rely on rains, meaning that before you can actually predict when it’s raining and obviously crops would need to be watered and in order to do that, you would need another source and that’s the reason why, we would do or my dad would build irrigation wells just to cope up and be able to water the plants.
Future
Ramier: Wow that’s awesome! Now we are going to move on the future and future goals of the farm and yourself I gues. Kind of looking ahead, what do you envision for the future of farming, not only in your farm, but I guess your region, considering, like you said, the ongoing challenges of climate change? And another question is like, what role does the Philippine government play in supporting climate-resilient farming practices…are there any policy gaps that need to be addressed?
Dad: This is really a profound question…I would say looking ahead, what I envision for the future of farming in our region, considering the ongoing challenges of climate change are farmers should have access to better farm irrigation systems. Farmers should be able to explore and plant different rice seed variants or rice varieties to help breed improved crops with higher resilience to climate change. So you know, before, in the absence of good rice varients, you can’t really expect good harvest, given that the plants may not receive enough sunlight, may not receive enough water or sustenance…that’s the reason why I would think going forward, farmers should be more vigilant in thinking out of the box, like trying various or rice seed variants, which could really help improve or kind of cope up with the ever-changing climate change. The second question you asked about the Philippine government…obviously the Philippine government should play a vital role in supporting climate-resilient farming practices by building better irrigation systems. Another important thing is research and coming up with rice seed variants that are resilient to weather change. The Philippine government should also continue to educate its people regarding climate change as this truly impacts farming in the Philippines. As for the policy gaps that need to be addressed, the Philippine government should really enhance leadership and I would say accountability through monitoring, evaluation, and review of climate change policies and activities cause again this is very important right. As you would know, the Philippines is like a major source of you know, when it comes to rice, and there’s a lot of farmers there and it’s really important that the government should take part or do its role in making sure that farmers are able to cope up and navigate this ever-changing climate.
Ramier: Yes, I agree. The Philippines is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, so I think, obviously the government who has a lot of power should do more, in terms of helping the communities and people.
Dad: I couldn’t agree more. Again, coming from or growing up on a farm, it’s very important that the government should show the farmers that they’re doing, making sure that they provide support and in the same manner, educate the people…cause as you would know, farmers are from rural areas and they need to get this information and in the same manner, spread the news if there are new rice seed variants that they can utilize in making sure that those are resilient from climate change.
Ramier: Ya, so the next question is considering the challenges posed by climate change, do you have any advice or what message would you give to the younger generation growing up on family farms today?
Dad: I do, I sincerely do. As you would know…I mean, you, I can see that you are very particular with climate change and as you can imagine, climate change poses a real threat to farmers around the world and as you would know, farming is highly dependent on good weather and can really influence the harvest. In this regard, my pieces of advice that I’d give the younger generation growing up on a family farm today are they need to learn and they should learn how to adapt and think out of the box and also, be more cognizant and assertive in understanding what truly causes climate change. The younger generation growing up on family farms need to be more informed and I would think there are means right…they seminars or workshops and climate change has been an ongoing topic and younger generations should realize or I would say, be more keen in understanding the effects.
Ramier: What I got out of that was education is a big part, then like you mentioned like, the government can play a big part in educating it’s people, especially people who may not have these resources to learn about climate change. So kind of to end this, last question, is…so recently, I wrote my climate story and I wrote in it that I want to learn more about my identites, and one of them is my Filipino identity and I wanted to learn specifically your stories about growing up on the farm and that connection to climate change. So, what were some stories your father told you about the farm when you were younger?
Dad: I actually, specifically, gravitate to this particular question cause…you know…I can imagine like, I really like listening to my dad, my father and he’s always told me a lot of stories about our farm when I was younger and one of stories I can recall and I would say I will never forget is when Dad would tell me that, hey, you and I will go to our farm and he’ll bring me to the actual field and for me to actually see the size of the tomatoes and also the watermelons that we grow and then we observed and I’ll always tell my dad, hey can we pick up some tomatoes or watermelons…that’s how he’s told me the stories cause obviously I was a little young back then so I couldn’t really recall the full story, but my dad told me that we’ll pick the ripe ones and we will eat them and share them with the entire family and friends. He would always remind me that in life you actually need to persevere in order to be successful regardless whether I become a farmer or follow any other profession. He also kind of reminded me to respect nature and everyone around me cause again nature being vital to farmers and it was a lowkey life, but I can always feel happiness you know or like fully contented, meaning there’s food on the table right…my dad is always able to provide food for us and in the same manner, our farm, again, that’s main source of income for them…I kind of get teary when we’re talking about farm and particularly my experiences and the stories that my dad told me cause he’s been very passionate in regard to farming and he has a sense of, he’s very responsible to say the least. Imagine, my parents main source of income back then was farming and you know, they didn’t get higher education, but they were able to provide for their family and my dad was able to think outside of the box as well…he didn’t just rely on planting vegetables, he also took care of cattles. Up until now, we have cattles…he raised cattles, which was another source of income. It’s a cycle, like you plant rice and then the hay, the hay becomes the food of the cattle. Like you can imagine it’s like homestead, everything’s there. And I would say, climate, like weather, played a really important role, like rains, obviously the heat of the sun, so again, we should respect nature and take care of Mother Earth.
Ramier: Ya so one more thing is, now talking about your stories that your father told you, why do you think it’s important for you to share your own story and kind of, I guess right now like what we’re doing, talk about your life on the farm and be appreciative of that part of your life…and, why do you think it’s important for me and my other siblings to kind of, visit the farm and experience the farm whenever we travel to the Philippines?
Dad: You actually hit the nail on the head when you say the word appreciate. Me sharing these stories to you guys, for me, is very important to know your roots and in the same manner, you know, making sure that…cause there’s life out there right, I mean you probably think that its simple, but in essence, it’s kind of lowkey, but very rewarding for you guys to experience that, meaning it’s so simple, living is simple there and everything is provided by nature, and to me, I like you guys to, when we have the opportunity to visit the farm, to kind of experience what I’ve experienced cause I do cherish that. For me, I’m not the person I am today if I had, you know again those experiences taught me to be a better person and living on a farm man, I mean its been great and I would say you know, I’ll encourage you to, when we have the opportunity, to see and understand your roots as well.
Ramier: Ya, wow thank you dad!
Dad: I hope that answers all the questions, but if in anyway or any case you would like to have another conversation regarding me growing up on a farm, feel free and I love, I enjoy talking about my childhood and living on a farm obviously.
Ramier: Thank you!
Dad: You’re very welcome, anak!

Ramier Villarama (he/him) was born in the Philippines, but moved to New Jersey with his family at a young age. He is a current rising third-year student at Macalester College in St. Paul, MN. In addition to being a part of the Men’s Swimming and Diving team, he is a double major in Environmental Studies and Studio Art, with a minor in Asian Studies and a concentration in Food, Agriculture, and Society. He has been recently learning more about his Filipino culture and his relationship with nature, and has been connecting both with his art and the work that he creates.
The post Full Interview: Buhay Bukid, A Conversation with My Father on His Childhood Farm Adventures and Climate Change appeared first on Climate Generation.
Climate Change
What Is the Economic Impact of Data Centers? It’s a Secret.
N.C. Gov. Josh Stein wants state lawmakers to rethink tax breaks for data centers. The industry’s opacity makes it difficult to evaluate costs and benefits.
Tax breaks for data centers in North Carolina keep as much as $57 million each year into from state and local government coffers, state figures show, an amount that could balloon to billions of dollars if all the proposed projects are built.
Climate Change
GEF raises $3.9bn ahead of funding deadline, $1bn below previous budget
The Global Environment Facility (GEF), a multilateral fund that provides climate and nature finance to developing countries, has raised $3.9 billion from donor governments in its last pledging session ahead of a key fundraising deadline at the end of May.
The amount, which is meant to cover the fund’s activities for the next four years (July 2026-June 2030), falls significantly short of the previous four-year cycle for which the GEF managed to raise $5.3bn from governments. Since then, military and other political priorities have squeezed rich nations’ budgets for climate and development aid.
The facility said in a statement that it expects more pledges ahead of the final replenishment package, which is set for approval at the next GEF Council meeting from May 31 to June 3.
Claude Gascon, interim CEO of the GEF, said that “donor countries have risen to the challenge and made bold commitments towards a more positive future for the planet”. He added that the pledges send a message that “the world is not giving up on nature even in a time of competing priorities”.
Donors under pressure
But Brian O’Donnell, director of the environmental non-profit Campaign for Nature, said the announcement shows “an alarming trend” of donor governments cutting public finance for climate and nature.
“Wealthy nations pledged to increase international nature finance, and yet we are seeing cuts and lower contributions. Investing in nature prevents extinctions and supports livelihoods, security, health, food, clean water and climate,” he said. “Failing to safeguard nature now will result in much larger costs later.”
At COP29 in Baku, developed countries pledged to mobilise $300bn a year in public climate finance by 2035, while at UN biodiversity talks they have also pledged to raise $30bn per year by 2030. Yet several wealthy governments have announced cuts to green finance to increase defense spending, among them most recently the UK.
As for the US, despite Trump’s cuts to international climate finance, Congress approved a $150 million increase in its contribution to the GEF after what was described as the organisation’s “refocus on non-climate priorities like biodiversity, plastics and ocean ecosystems, per US Treasury guidance”.
The facility will only reveal how much each country has pledged when its assembly of 186 member countries meets in early June. The last period’s largest donors were Germany ($575 million), Japan ($451 million), and the US ($425 million).
The GEF has also gone through a change in leadership halfway through its fundraising cycle. Last December, the GEF Council asked former CEO Carlos Manuel Rodriguez to step down effective immediately and appointed Gascon as interim CEO.
Santa Marta conference: fossil fuel transition in an unstable world
New guidelines
As part of the upcoming funding cycle, the GEF has approved a set of guidelines for spending the $3.9bn raised so far, which include allocating 35% of resources for least developed countries and small island states, as well as 20% of the money going to Indigenous people and communities.
Its programs will help countries shift five key systems – nature, food, urban, energy and health – from models that drive degradation to alternatives that protect the planet and support human well-being by integrating the value of nature into production and consumption systems.
The new priorities also include a target to allocate 25% of the GEF’s budget for mobilising private funds through blended finance. This aligns with efforts by wealthy countries to increase contributions from the private sector to international climate finance.
Niels Annen, Germany’s State Secretary for Economic Cooperation and Development, said in a statement that the country’s priorities are “very well reflected” in the GEF’s new spending guidelines, including on “innovative finance for nature and people, better cooperation with the private sector, and stable resources for the most vulnerable countries”.
Aliou Mustafa, of the GEF Indigenous Peoples Advisory Group (IPAG), also welcomed the announcement, adding that “the GEF is strengthening trust and meaningful partnerships with Indigenous Peoples and local communities” by placing them at the “centre of decision-making”.
The post GEF raises $3.9bn ahead of funding deadline, $1bn below previous budget appeared first on Climate Home News.
GEF raises $3.9bn ahead of funding deadline, $1bn below previous budget
Climate Change
Marine heatwaves ‘nearly double’ the economic damage caused by tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify when passing over marine heatwaves can become “supercharged”, increasing the likelihood of high economic losses, a new study finds.
Such storms also have higher rates of rainfall and higher maximum windspeeds, according to the research.
The study, published in Science Advances, looks at the economic damages caused by nearly 800 tropical cyclones that occurred around the world between 1981 and 2023.
It finds that rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones that pass near abnormally warm parts of the ocean produce nearly double – 93% – the economic damages as storms that do not, even when levels of coastal development are taken into account.
One researcher, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the new analysis is a “step forward in understanding how we can better refine our predictions of what might happen in the future” in an increasingly warm world.
As marine heatwaves are projected to become more frequent under future climate change, the authors say that the interactions between storms and these heatwaves “should be given greater consideration in future strategies for climate adaptation and climate preparedness”.
‘Rapid intensification’
Tropical cyclones are rapidly rotating storm systems that form over warm ocean waters, characterised by low pressure at their cores and sustained winds that can reach more than 120 kilometres per hour.
The term “tropical cyclones” encompasses hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, which are named as such depending on which ocean basin they occur in.
When they make landfall, these storms can cause major damage. They accounted for six of the top 10 disasters between 1900 and 2024 in terms of economic loss, according to the insurance company Aon’s 2025 climate catastrophe insight report.
These economic losses are largely caused by high wind speeds, large amounts of rainfall and damaging storm surges.
Storms can become particularly dangerous through a process called “rapid intensification”.
Rapid intensification is when a storm strengthens considerably in a short period of time. It is defined as an increase in sustained wind speed of at least 30 knots (around 55 kilometres per hour) in a 24-hour period.
There are several factors that can lead to rapid intensification, including warm ocean temperatures, high humidity and low vertical “wind shear” – meaning that the wind speeds higher up in the atmosphere are very similar to the wind speeds near the surface.
Rapid intensification has become more common since the 1980s and is projected to become even more frequent in the future with continued warming. (Although there is uncertainty as to how climate change will impact the frequency of tropical cyclones, the increase in strength and intensification is more clear.)
Marine heatwaves are another type of extreme event that are becoming more frequent due to recent warming. Like their atmospheric counterparts, marine heatwaves are periods of abnormally high ocean temperatures.
Previous research has shown that these marine heatwaves can contribute to a cyclone undergoing rapid intensification. This is because the warm ocean water acts as a “fuel” for a storm, says Dr Hamed Moftakhari, an associate professor of civil engineering at the University of Alabama who was one of the authors of the new study. He explains:
“The entire strength of the tropical cyclone [depends on] how hot the [ocean] surface is. Marine heatwave means we have an abundance of hot water that is like a gas [petrol] station. As you move over that, it’s going to supercharge you.”
However, the authors say, there is no global assessment of how rapid intensification and marine heatwaves interact – or how they contribute to economic damages.
Using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) – a database of tropical cyclone paths and intensities – the researchers identify 1,600 storms that made landfall during the 1981-2023 period, out of a total of 3,464 events.
Of these 1,600 storms, they were able to match 789 individual, land-falling cyclones with economic loss data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and other official sources.
Then, using the IBTrACS storm data and ocean-temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the researchers classify each cyclone by whether or not it underwent rapid intensification and if it passed near a recent marine heatwave event before making landfall.
The researchers find that there is a “modest” rise in the number of marine heatwave-influenced tropical cyclones globally since 1981, but with significant regional variations. In particular, they say, there are “clear” upward trends in the north Atlantic Ocean, the north Indian Ocean and the northern hemisphere basin of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
‘Storm characteristics’
The researchers find substantial differences in the characteristics of tropical cyclones that experience rapid intensification and those that do not, as well as between rapidly intensifying storms that occur with marine heatwaves and those that occur without them.
For example, tropical cyclones that do not experience rapid intensification have, on average, maximum wind speeds of around 40 knots (74km/hr), whereas storms that rapidly intensify have an average maximum wind speed of nearly 80 knots (148km/hr).
Of the rapidly intensifying storms, those that are influenced by marine heatwaves maintain higher wind speeds during the days leading up to landfall.
Although the wind speeds are very similar between the two groups once the storms make landfall, the pre-landfall difference still has an impact on a storm’s destructiveness, says Dr Soheil Radfar, a hurricane-hazard modeller at Princeton University. Radfar, who is the lead author of the new study, tells Carbon Brief:
“Hurricane damage starts days before the landfall…Four or five days before a hurricane making landfall, we expect to have high wind speeds and, because of that high wind speed, we expect to have storm surges that impact coastal communities.”
They also find that rapidly intensifying storms have higher peak rainfall than non-rapidly intensifying storms, with marine heatwave-influenced, rapidly intensifying storms exhibiting the highest average rainfall at landfall.
The charts below show the mean sustained wind speed in knots (top) and the mean rainfall in millimetres per hour (bottom) for the tropical cyclones analysed in the study in the five days leading up to and two days following a storm making landfall.
The four lines show storms that: rapidly intensified with the influence of marine heatwaves (red); those that rapidly intensified without marine heatwaves (purple); those that experienced marine heatwaves, but did not rapidly intensify (orange); and those that neither rapidly intensified nor experienced a marine heatwave (blue).

Dr Daneeja Mawren, an ocean and climate consultant at the Mauritius-based Mascarene Environmental Consulting who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the new study “helps clarify how marine heatwaves amplify storm characteristics”, such as stronger winds and heavier rainfall. She notes that this “has not been done on a global scale before”.
However, Mawren adds that other factors not considered in the analysis can “make a huge difference” in the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones, including subsurface marine heatwaves and eddies – circular, spinning ocean currents that can trap warm water.
Dr Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University who was also not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that, while the intensification found by the study “makes physical sense”, it is inherently limited by the relatively small number of storms that occur. He adds:
“There’s not that many storms, to tease out the physical mechanisms and observational data. So being able to reproduce this kind of work in a physical model would be really important.”
Economic costs
Storm intensity is not the only factor that determines how destructive a given cyclone can be – the economic damages also depend strongly on the population density and the amount of infrastructure development where a storm hits. The study explains:
“A high storm surge in a sparsely populated area may cause less economic damage than a smaller surge in a densely populated, economically important region.”
To account for the differences in development, the researchers use a type of data called “built-up volume”, from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Built-up volume is a quantity derived from satellite data and other high-resolution imagery that combines measurements of building area and average building height in a given area. This can be used as a proxy for the level of development, the authors explain.
By comparing different cyclones that impacted areas with similar built-up volumes, the researchers can analyse how rapid intensification and marine heatwaves contribute to the overall economic damages of a storm.
They find that, even when controlling for levels of coastal development, storms that pass through a marine heatwave during their rapid intensification cause 93% higher economic damages than storms that do not.
They identify 71 marine heatwave-influenced storms that cause more than $1bn (inflation-adjusted across the dataset) in damages, compared to 45 storms that cause those levels of damage without the influence of marine heatwaves.
This quantification of the cyclones’ economic impact is one of the study’s most “important contributions”, says Mawren.
The authors also note that the continued development in coastal regions may increase the likelihood of tropical cyclone damages over time.
Towards forecasting
The study notes that the increased damages caused by marine heatwave-influenced tropical cyclones, along with the projected increases in marine heatwaves, means such storms “should be given greater consideration” in planning for future climate change.
For Radfar and Moftakhari, the new study emphasises the importance of understanding the interactions between extreme events, such as tropical cyclones and marine heatwaves.
Moftakhari notes that extreme events in the future are expected to become both more intense and more complex. This becomes a problem for climate resilience because “we basically design in the future based on what we’ve observed in the past”, he says. This may lead to underestimating potential hazards, he adds.
Mawren agrees, telling Carbon Brief that, in order to “fully capture the intensification potential”, future forecasts and risk assessments must account for marine heatwaves and other ocean phenomena, such as subsurface heat.
Lin adds that the actions needed to reduce storm damages “take on the order of decades to do right”. He tells Carbon Brief:
“All these [planning] decisions have to come by understanding the future uncertainty and so this research is a step forward in understanding how we can better refine our predictions of what might happen in the future.”
The post Marine heatwaves ‘nearly double’ the economic damage caused by tropical cyclones appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Marine heatwaves ‘nearly double’ the economic damage caused by tropical cyclones
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