Donald Trump’s designs on Venezuela and Greenland have sent shock waves around the world. Canadian premier Mark Carney said they have created a “rupture in the world order”, as political alliances that have held for over 80 years are thrown aside.
And as the US seeks to carve out a Western Hemispheric sphere of influence, questions about the dollar’s future as the lynchpin of the global economy are growing louder. Many other parts of the world are switching to green energy sources as renewable energy becomes cheaper than fossil fuels, and countries forced to pay back loans in dollars are eyeing alternative currency options to free themselves from the penalty of fluctuating exchange rates amid unpredictable policy shifts.
As a result, the continued relevance of the petrodollar system – in which oil is traded in dollars and guarantees demand for US currency – may be less than assured.
What is the petrodollar system?
The petrodollar system was established in the 1970s following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and is one of the most consequential monetary arrangements in modern history.
In 1944, the Bretton Woods agreement made the US dollar the anchor of the global monetary system, pegged to gold and with other currencies fixed to the dollar. The framework aimed to provide global financial stability following the economic fragmentation of the Second World War and cemented the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
US President Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1971 to curb inflation after foreign central banks – increasingly reluctant to hold depreciating dollars – began converting their dollar reserves into gold. The petrodollar system emerged as an alternative means of keeping the dollar as the backbone of international transactions.
The petrodollar system refers to the pact that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states – including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia – made with the US, agreeing to price oil in dollars and to recycle revenues into US Treasury securities in return for military protection and sales of advanced weaponry.
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Andrés Arauz, former Ecuadorian minister and central bank director, told Green Central Banking that ramifications for the global economy were immense: “So oil and gas [are traded in dollars], but then also downstream with all the derivatives, but then also all the chemical elements derived from the oil industry and petrochemical industry. And then likewise, upstream with all the technology and inputs required to extract the oil, [it] created a dollar-denominated value chain with global and international repercussions.”
Arauz also notes that international accounting standards set by institutions like the IMF reinforce the system by requiring central banks and organisations to report reserves in dollars, solidifying the greenback as the default unit of account.
For decades, this system delivered guaranteed demand for dollars, recycled oil revenues into safe-haven US debt markets, and provided outsized geopolitical leverage to the US Federal Reserve given the need of other countries to accumulate dollars to conduct global transactions.
Fadhel Kaboub, associate professor in economics at Denison University, explains how this “exorbitant privilege” distorted the global economy in the US’s favour. “All countries operate … within a system where they have to accumulate reserves not in gold anymore but in dollars and countries that have debt, their debt is denominated in dollars. So that created a locked-in system that gives the US dollar a privilege as the dominant payment system and gives the opportunity to weaponise this system.”
The petrodollar system has also encouraged and amplified US consumption of fossil fuels and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Kaboub, who is also a member of the United Nations High-Level Advisory Board on Economic and Social Affairs, says the system has “rewired” the global economy into an extractive model that promotes environmentally destructive industries.
But as decarbonisation accelerates and renewable energy displaces fossil fuel value chains, the petro-lynchpin of dollar dominance faces unprecedented strain.
Is the petrodollar in decline?
Signs of discontent are increasing, placing the dollar’s decades-long dominance under unprecedented pressure.
BRICS countries are discussing new financial mechanisms that will make trading within the bloc easier but may also reduce reliance on existing dollar-dominated channels. Both India and Brazil have denied that linking BRICS digital currencies is part of moves towards de-dollarisation, but such a move will likely cause concern in the US.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde made headlines in May 2025 with her blunt assessment that the current global landscape presents a significant opportunity for a “global euro moment”, as investors “unsettled by unpredictable US economic strategies” increasingly reduce their exposure to dollar-denominated assets.
These developments reflect deeper structural shifts. The dollar’s share of global reserves has declined from 71% to 56.3% since 2008, with central banks purchasing over 1,000 metric tons of gold annually for three consecutive years. China slashed its US Treasury holdings from US$1.3tn in 2013 to just $682bn by November 2025, while simultaneously expanding yuan-based trade across Asia.
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This shift was triggered by what Arauz describes as “eroding trust” in US financial systems.
“Perhaps the most serious element that has accelerated this diversification has been the weaponisation of the hegemonic banking system,” Arauz said. “[Through] sanctions, through asset freezes, through confiscation of international reserves in many countries … [these] have definitely stirred things up and made countries reflect about the reliance on this previously thought of neutral system that is now, on the other hand a threat, to their national sovereignty and economic policies.”
The climate crisis is also acting as a catalyst. As the world transitions away from fossil fuels, structural strain is placed on the demand for dollars, and the more the US clings to fossil fuel dependency in order to maintain monetary dominance, the deeper the cracks become.
Gulf states have long-term plans to diversify away from oil and reinvest a substantial portion of their oil revenues in green value chains, challenging the core pact which upholds the petrodollar system that US currency dominance has long depended on.
And while economists expect the dollar to remain the primary reserve currency in the near term, it has also been noted that once transitions to a new system are underway, they can happen very quickly. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Jeffry Frieden, political science professor at Columbia University, warned of “an erosion of confidence in the dollar” amid mounting doubts about the safety of US Treasuries as “the most important financial asset in the world”.
‘US pulling itself out of the picture’
The Trump administration’s response to a shift away from the dollar has been to double down on arms sales and fossil fuel infrastructure – what Kaboub calls a “long-term strategic failure” that fundamentally misreads the changing dynamics of global power.
Trump’s recent $142bn arms deal with Saudi Arabia aims to tether Gulf revenues to the dollar through military exports. However, economists like Maya Senussi at Oxford Economics and John Sfakianakis of the Gulf Research Centre warn that financing such deals alongside decarbonisation projects will strain GCC budgets, and Bloomberg estimates it will require oil prices to be at least $96 a barrel just to break even. Brent oil prices currently hover around $67-68.
And in the Global South, higher oil prices may inadvertently threaten dollar dominance by exacerbating debt burdens by increasing repayment costs, pushing countries towards cheaper (and greener) energy systems. America’s transition to net fossil fuel exporter status means higher oil prices now strengthen rather than weaken the dollar, creating a triple blow for dollar-indebted countries in Latin America and Africa: higher energy costs, escalating debt servicing and constrained fiscal space.
The very mechanism designed to strengthen dollar ties – expensive arms deals premised on elevated oil prices – accelerates the search for alternatives among countries holding critical transition minerals like lithium, copper and cobalt. This pushes the US further from the green value chains of the future.
“The US is pulling itself out of the picture, it’s divesting from the green technologies and green industries. Which means it’s moving away from its interest in critical minerals,” says Kaboub. “So the remaining big player is China, and it’s a friend of the Global South.”
Today, China controls 85-90% of global rare earth processing and offers renewable energy equipment that remains attractive to the GCC despite US and EU tariffs. This is thanks to competitive pricing and comprehensive infrastructure approaches that western competitors have largely failed to match.
‘America needs you’: US seeks trade alliance to break China’s critical mineral dominance
Kaboub says that Trump’s minerals-for-security deals, such as in Greenland and elsewhere, may secure short-term market access but erode global trust in US foreign policy, a cornerstone of confidence in the dollar. “The isolated backwards technology bloc is going to be the United States,” he says.
As Lagarde observed, investors increasingly seek “geopolitical assurance in another form” by directing investments toward regions perceived as “dependable security allies” – but this no longer automatically defaults to the US as its government criticises its one-time allies and jeopardises the future of NATO.
Yet the petrodollar system faces challenges that extend far beyond the geopolitics of sanctions; climate change has introduced structural pressures making the core foundations of dollar dominance increasingly untenable.
However, given Trump’s bellicose stance on Venezuela and Greenland, there is a risk that American policymakers will not recognise this new reality until it is too late.
This article was originally published by Green Central Banking.
The post Explainer: What is the petrodollar and why is it under pressure? appeared first on Climate Home News.
Explainer: What is the petrodollar and why is it under pressure?
If the green economy—defined as the group of companies heavily involved in environmental business—were its own industry, it would be the third-largest in the world.
The group of companies that derive significant revenue from environmental solutions, known as the green economy, has topped $10 trillion in market value, a new report found.
After two weeks of climate negotiations riven by arguments over finance and science, the UN climate chief expressed disappointment and denounced governments for “cherry-picking” commitments they have already made and waiting for others to move first.
In their final hours on Thursday evening, the talks tried – and failed – to reach a deal that would have balanced developing countries’ demands for reassurance on finance to help them adapt to climate impacts with richer nations’ desire to move forward with work on speeding up emissions reductions in line with science.
Simon Stiell, the head of the UN climate body, released a statement as the Bonn talks wound up, saying that “in some negotiating rooms, we’ve heard a familiar tendency towards you-first-ism – groups refusing to deliver commitments or allow the process to move forward unless others go first”.
“This is a recipe for gridlock when we need all negotiating tracks to be moving in the fast lane,” he added.
Gridlock is where the talks ended, with countries unable to agree conclusions on at least three major areas of climate action, including adaptation and mitigation, invoking “Rule 16”. That means they will be taken up again at COP31 in Türkiye in November.
Bonn Bulletin: Finance row threatens to scupper work on adaptation goal
On the emissions reduction (mitigation) work programme, pushback – primarily from fossil-fuel producing nations – has prevented any meaningful progress since its creation at COP27, as countries have been unable to come up with a united vision for its scope and purpose.
Despite many countries expressing disappointment at the end of Bonn, China argued that some common ground had been found that could serve as positive elements to build on at COP31, including that “no one is against mitigation implementation and ambition”.
Adaptation “salt in our wounds”
Small island states and developing nations spoke bitterly of the lack of progress on the global goal on adaptation, which had been expected to launch technical work on putting into practice indicators agreed at COP30 in Brazil, and said it had destroyed trust between countries.
Fiji’s delegate described the need to adapt to evolving climate risk as a “daily burden”, which he said is a question of water and food security and, in some cases, forcing people to face relocation on the Pacific islands.
“Some of us will now travel more than 30 hours home to report that one of the most fundamental issues we sought progress on here for vulnerable countries has stalled at a time when we need guidance and outcomes the most. In light of overshoot [of 1.5C of warming] and attacks on the science, this is simply further salt in our wounds,” he told the closing plenary as the clock ticked towards midnight local time.
On Wednesday, a coalition of European and climate-vulnerable developing countries accused fossil fuel interests and the “usual suspects” of mounting ”coordinated attacks” on science, as arguments erupted over the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C warming limit and its overshoot and when the next UN climate science reports should be published.
Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks
Stiell urged the Turkish and Australian COP31 co-presidencies to get ministers working “as soon as possible” on the “thorniest issues” in the UN climate process so that negotiations can move into the “fast lane”. The presidencies are under pressure to appoint pairs of ministers to resolve these issues earlier than usual, so that they are well-briefed and know their counterparts ahead of COP31.
Alden Meyer, senior associate for climate diplomacy and geopolitics with E3G, lamented the “limited progress in most of the negotiating rooms” over the past fortnight. “As people across the world suffer the twin crises of mounting climate impacts as well as the sharply higher energy and food prices resulting from the war in the… Gulf, there was no sense of urgency at the Bonn climate talks.”
Electrification bright spot
Meyer and others observers did, however, welcome a new goal on electrification proposed by COP31 host Turkiye outside of the formal talks under the Global Climate Action Agenda, which also brings in the private sector and cities.
The electrification target would strive to ramp up the share of final energy consumption provided by electricity to 35% by 2035 from about 20% today by accelerating the switch to technologies such as heat pumps, electric vehicles (EVs) and electric cookers.
COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification
Nonetheless, some analysts said such goals lack significance without a global plan to transition away from fossil fuels. Brazil is now working on one, with inputs from countries and civil society, but it is unclear how this will be incorporated into the UN climate process, if at all.
Jasper Inventor, deputy programme director at Greenpeace International, said the stalled talks around climate finance for developing countries and a repeated deadlock on mitigation “took some of the shine off the emergence of a coalition of countries supporting a transition away from fossil fuels at a time where the climate and energy crisis is set to be supercharged” by an emerging El Niño pattern.
Bonn paves way for new just transition mechanism
One key topic that advanced more calmly at the Bonn talks and even achieved some promising consensus was just transition – how to achieve a green economic and social shift that is fair from the global to the local level. Countries approved the terms of reference under which the just transition work programme (JTWP), which began in 2023, will be reviewed.
And following up on a COP30 decision to develop a mechanism to guide and enable support for just transition initiatives, which was hailed by civil society as a big win, countries in Bonn provided a first set of options on its structure and other elements of how it will operate, with a view to it being launched at COP31.
Comment: The UN climate process was built for negotiation – now it must support implementation
Anabella Rosemberg, senior advisor on just transition at Climate Action Network International, which represents hundreds of green groups, noted that “it will require a bit of work between now and COP31 to have an agreement”. Informal discussions could take place, for example, during Regional Climate Week in Baku in October, or at the invitation of the COP31 presidency in Australia, she added.
Key considerations for the new mechanism are to include ways to provide the resources for just transition, to provide technical support, and include communities and workers, she said.
“Civil society is going to continue working. This is the legitimate space to bring the fight for just transition,” she told journalists in Bonn on Thursday.
The post Bonn climate talks end in “gridlock” on adaptation and emissions-cutting appeared first on Climate Home News.
Bonn climate talks end in “gridlock” on adaptation and emissions-cutting
Climate Change
The UN climate process was built for negotiation – now it must support implementation
By Paul Watkinson, Stefan Ruchti-Crowley, Anju Sharma, Ovais Sarmad and Benito Müller.
In the corridors of the World Conference Centre in Bonn, where the June Climate Meetings (SB64) will conclude on Thursday, the need for change is palpable.
Delegates are grappling once again with overcrowded agendas, growing demands on limited negotiating time, external geopolitical pressures that reverberate internally to test the limits of a consensus-based process, and concerns over its future financial sustainability.
Bonn Bulletin: Finance row threatens to scupper work on adaptation goal
There is growing frustration with a process that consumes vast amounts of time to produce outcomes that are often too incremental to match the accelerating reality of the climate crisis.
The climate regime has delivered. But it is in danger of not delivering enough.
More effective multilateralism
There is no denying the successes of the UN climate process. Over three decades, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement established a universal framework for climate action, created transparency and accountability mechanisms, and sent powerful signals to governments, businesses and investors.
Thanks in large part to this framework, the world is no longer on a trajectory of more than 4°C of warming, clean technology costs have fallen dramatically, and participation in the global climate effort remains nearly universal.
Yet, global temperatures continue to break records. Climate impacts are intensifying across every region. The world remains far off track to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. As warming approaches – and may exceed – 1.5°C, every additional fraction of a degree brings greater losses of lives, livelihoods and ecosystems, with the greatest burdens falling on the most vulnerable countries and communities.
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We remain convinced that the answer to the climate crisis is not less multilateralism, but more effective multilateralism.
The hard truth is that the UNFCCC remains largely organised around the logic of treaty-making, while the central challenge of climate action has shifted to implementation. A process designed to negotiate agreements and deliver decision text as the outcome is now required to support implementation on the ground—and it is struggling.
There is a structural mismatch between what the climate process was designed to do, and what it needs to do now.
Consultations on reforms
Discussions on the urgency of reform are widespread and no longer confined to the margins. Formally, the Arrangements for Intergovernmental Meetings (AIM) process is exploring ways of improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the process.
The UNFCCC Executive Secretary has also convened a High-Level Informal Consultative Roundtable for strategic reflection on how to strengthen the complementarity between the intergovernmental process and action in the real economy.
Defending multilateralism today requires adapting it.
The good news is that meaningful reform does not require reopening treaties, renegotiating the Paris Agreement, or indeed even resolving long-standing differences on the Rules of Procedure to change the consensus rule. Stefan Ruchti-Crowley and Paul Watkinson’s recent paper for ecbi (European Capacity Building Initiative), Quo Vadis COP? Reforming UNFCCC Sessions to Improve Negotiations and Support Implementation, outlines a practical toolbox of four reforms that can be pursued within the existing institutional framework.
First, the process must improve its agendas.
The formal process is burdened by crowded agendas and overlapping workstreams. Consolidating agenda items under broader thematic pillars (such as mitigation, adaptation, finance and transparency); developing good practices for agenda adoption; removing legacy “ghost” items; and concluding outstanding business on the Kyoto Protocol will create more space for substantive discussions and implementation.
Second, the process must organise its work more strategically.
The climate process currently attempts to address nearly every issue at every session. A more strategic approach would use thematic multi-year programmes of work; better align review cycles and timelines; improve coherence across the many bodies and processes that have accumulated over time, often to the extent that even insiders have lost oversight; and also make better use of inter-sessional and pre-sessional meetings.
Third, the process must focus more deliberately on implementation.
Critically, not every challenge requires a negotiated outcome. Negotiations should focus on issues that genuinely require collective decision-making. Other discussions should prioritise learning, cooperation and practical problem-solving.
Existing formats such as Talanoa Dialogues, roundtables and other facilitative approaches should be expanded. Likewise, the Enhanced Transparency Framework should become a stronger mechanism for mutual learning and accountability rather than a largely procedural reporting and “box-ticking” exercise.
Fourth, the process must make structural changes and broaden participation.
National delegations should include a broader range of practitioners and policymakers, including a Head of Implementation. The process should strengthen engagement with sectoral ministers, investors, technology providers, scientists, local authorities and non-Party stakeholders.
Stronger links are necessary between science policy and implementation, and with international institutions that shape the enabling conditions for climate action, particularly finance and development. Platforms to address systemic barriers along with AI-enabled learning by doing will equally support strengthened action.
Delivering commitments with limited resources
The case for reform is becoming even stronger as financial pressures intensify.
Improving efficiency is not simply desirable; it has become unavoidable. The UNFCCC faces growing budgetary constraints arising from delayed contributions, uncertainty surrounding major donors, and broader reductions across the UN system.
A process that is better organised, more implementation-focused and less encumbered by procedural overload will be far better equipped to navigate a future of tighter resources.
Leadership will be crucial.
Panama environment minister backs calls for reform of UN climate process
COP presidencies have an important role to play, as do the Chairs of the Subsidiary Bodies. The UNFCCC Executive Secretary and Secretariat must take a bold approach to work in coordination with the COP Bureau to implement urgent changes.
Careful diplomacy will, of course, be essential. Parties must be reassured that reform is intended to strengthen the effectiveness of the regime, not weaken its governance. The objective is not to replace mandates, but to ensure that mandates can be fulfilled more effectively. It is to ensure that negotiation is used where negotiation is needed, while other forms of cooperation are used where they can deliver better results.
The UNFCCC remains the cornerstone of international climate cooperation. No other forum combines its legitimacy, universality and legal authority. But the multilateral climate process must evolve from a system primarily designed to negotiate commitments into one that is equally capable of supporting their delivery.
The post The UN climate process was built for negotiation – now it must support implementation appeared first on Climate Home News.
The UN climate process was built for negotiation – now it must support implementation
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