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EmpathCMS: Fast, Non-Invasive Fault Detection for Wind Turbines
Allen Hall interviews Dr. Howard Penrose, president and founder of MotorDoc LLC, about the groundbreaking EmpathCMS electrical signature analysis system. Dr. Penrose explains how the technology can quickly and non-invasively detect developing faults in wind turbine components like generators, gearboxes, and bearings, helping to optimize maintenance and prevent unplanned downtime.
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Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall. Our guest today is Dr. Howard Penrose, the president and founder of MotorDoc LLC, and the creator of the groundbreaking EnPath electrical signature analysis system. Dr. Penrose has over 30 years of experience in the field, authoring books, presenting at conferences worldwide, and providing training and consulting services to numerous industries, including wind energy.
The Empath system Dr. Penrose developed is a cutting edge tool for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance of electrical assets like motors, generators, and transformers. By analyzing the unique electrical signatures of equipment, Empath can detect developing faults early, preventing unplanned downtime, optimizing maintenance, and extending equipment life.
Howard, welcome to the program.
Howard Penrose: Thank you very much. And I just have to correct you on one thing. And that’s the Empath system was actually originally developed at Oak Ridge National Labs and is is, construct, is basically built and maintained by Framatome ANP, which is International Nuclear Power Company.
We are their non nuclear distributor and researcher. Large portion of what we do at MotorDoc is research the applications for electrical signature analysis and develop the algorithms.
Allen Hall: So this is, we have a magician here today, so to speak, because the whole thing about wind energy and when you talk to the engineers is the vast majority of them are mechanical engineers.
Drivetrain, blades, right? They know a lot about how the turbine works mechanically. But it is an electrical machine. It’s there to produce electricity. And that means there’s a lot of electric motors and obviously one big generator on the turbine. And that’s the heart of the system. And that’s the part that we really need to work.
What? I think you guys have done is interesting because you’re using the generator to diagnose things that are happening onside the turbine that are not only electrical, but mechanical. You want to explain how that works a little bit?
Howard Penrose: Okay. Well, with vibration analysis, for instance, I will use an accelerometer with a piezoelectric cell or some of the newer technologies that involve etching and certain other things of materials. And you put that on the casing of a machine, and you generate an electrical signal signal in that component, that accelerometer, for instance, or whatever other type of device it is for vibration. So you have to read all the movement of all the components inside the machine through the material.
through that transducer into something else that then translates that data in, either as a rules based system using squiggly lines or a machine learning based system, that kind of thing. Electrical signature analysis is exactly the same thing, except we use the air gap of the machine, whether it’s a generator or a motor or a transformer, as our transducers, the little magnetic field.
In between the components, not the rotor, not the stator. And we gather that information through just straight voltage and current. So the voltage and current comes out we use that and translate it in exactly the same manner we do with vibration. Matter of fact, most vibration analysts will recognize most of the signatures we look at when we’re looking at squiggly lines.
The difference is you have to cross your eyes and stand on your head, but that’s about it.
Allen Hall: So the Empath system, from what I’ve seen online, it measures a couple of voltages and some currents on some wires, which maybe you can describe what you’re actually measuring there.
Howard Penrose: If we’re doing the generator in a wind turbine we’re measuring the voltage and current directly off the stator.
If we’re doing the generator in a wind turbine we’re measuring the voltage and current directly off the stator. So if my transformer is uptower, that data has to come from uptower. If the data, if the transformer is downtower, say in a GE or some of the other machines, I can take that data downtower, which I prefer, to be perfectly honest.
But the idea is you go in you clamp on to three phases of current and three phases of voltage for optimal voltage. analysis. Really, if I’m just analyzing the components, I just need one good phase, right? One, one sinusoidal phase. There’s a lot of things that happen electrically in a machine, in a wind turbine, that are odd as compared to other types of generators.
So we have to work with that. And of course, whether I’m looking at a DFIG I like to call certain designs S FIG. Where I don’t have a feed to the rotor, I just have a switching system, such as in the old Suzlons. Or whether it’s an induction machine or a permanent magnet machine, each one is handled just a little differently, although the signatures are the same.
Allen Hall: So you’re measuring three voltages, three currents. On those signals is the power that’s coming from the generator, basically. But there’s other things on top of that. What electrical signals are on top of that, those power signals?
Howard Penrose: Every movement, every torsional issue, every component from the transformer to the blades.
In a defig even in some of the newer ones and one or two older designs that have the dual planetary gear set. We just added this as a matter of fact, in American clean power, we just add the, into the gearbox playbook, electrical signature analysis is one of the prognostics for the gearbox.
Through the air gap, we get to see. The transformer, we get to see all of the components in the generator that includes the bearings the Y rings and the rotor, which that’s, I think that’s one of the most popular reasons that were used is to define fracturing Y rings, and we’ll see those 14 months out.
And then even wedge issues of either vibrating or missing wedges in certain stator designs. Then we’ll see coupling issues. We’ll see all of the bearings in the gearbox, including the planetary bearings. We will see all the gears in the gearbox. I can’t tell you if it’s broken, cracked, or whatever, but I can tell you that there’s something wrong.
And not only that, I can tell you how much energy is being lost across that defect. And then the main bearings, we’ll even see when we have lubrication issues. One of the most common is when the lubrication is not changed out properly and you get dried grease at the bottom. We’ll read that as an outer race signature.
And then finally, if the blades aren’t aligned right, they don’t, they’re not turned correctly within a couple of degrees. We will see that as a blade pass as the impulse as it, as each blade passes the tower. You’ll see that variation, which can get tricky because certain designs now start to turn the blade a little bit based upon wind gusts and what LIDAR picks up coming at the wind tower.
Just by the way, what we didn’t include is the fact that I’m the chair of standards for ACP for wind. In the United States. So yeah, I have a little idea of what’s going on with the turbines.
Allen Hall: Just a tiny bit. Now, let me give a little, just talk about your background just for a second here, because I think it’s important.
You’re you started in the Navy. You’re from, originally from Canada, right? You came to the States and then you enlisted in the Navy.
Howard Penrose: I’m dual. So I was born in Michigan while my dad was finishing his doctorate at University of Michigan. Then he headed up the fisheries department in St.
John’s, Newfoundland, which makes me an official Newfie. So I joined the Navy. My worst class in A school was electric motors and generators. So I decided it was going to be my best subject. As I was one of the first hundred on board the Theodore Roosevelt, an aircraft carrier, and they said, what do you want to do?
And I said, I want motors. And generators. I was a a conventional electrician, not a nuclear power electrician. So they put me down there and, um, basically being one of the first hundred, I knew everybody. As a matter of fact, the nickname MotorDoc came from the captain of the ship back when I was 19 years old.
He authorized me to become the youngest electric motor repair journeyman in the Navy ever. I think to this day, so you have to sign up for six more years to get it. I didn’t have to I went to motor rewind school. I went to all the theoretical schools. I was enlisted. I got meritoriously advanced through E5 by the time I was 20.
So I spent two years in a chief’s position running a motor repair shop as a journeyman on an aircraft carrier.
Allen Hall: It takes a person like you that has the hand on hands on experience. Plus, a little bit of book knowledge, plus some education, and then have that kind of percolate for several years to go, okay, there is something to electrical signature analysis, and it’s real and to decode it.
I think that’s the hardest part, is decoding what’s there.
Howard Penrose: That, that is exactly the most challenging part, and the part, and the reason why most companies that have attempted to do it have failed is two parts. One is they’re trying to do it with current signature. I’m sorry, but a generator does not produce current.
It produces voltage. Wind is definitely different in that it’s both. There’s times when it acts because of the rotor, it’ll act as a load, times when it’ll act as a generator. And then with all of the controls for VAR correction, voltage correction, things like that. It will do different.
Wild things. The good news is I don’t care. What I do care about is that is that, for those who attempted the technology, not understanding that the technology measures the speed of the magnetic field, not the physical speed of the rotor. I don’t care. So if I’m a vibration analyst, I need feedback as to how fast the rotor is turning.
If I’m doing electrical signature, I need to know how fast the field is turning. Because in order to, in a defig, to get 60 hertz out, my field, if it’s a six pole machine, which a majority are six pole, others are four pole, that’ll be 1200 or 1800 rpm. If it’s a, if it’s a 1200 rpm, it’s going to be running slightly over 1200 rpm, which is why you don’t get exactly 60 hertz, right?
Because if you ran it exactly, then it becomes unstable, so you have to have it, yeah, you have to have it over speed just a little bit. That 1200 RPM motor, I’m just, I’m actually working on 320 turbines before we got on the call. The actual physical speed might hit as high as 1500 RPM, right? But if it did, and I didn’t compensate for that speed, I would have something like 80 Hertz.
Okay. Yeah, coming off, and it would fly all over the place. Then I would have to control it. But one of the, one of the, magical bits about D Fig is the VFD that runs in parallel and feeds the rotor changes either if it falls under that 1, 200 RPM, speeds it up, and if it’s over, slows it down.
One of the things we had discovered because of industrial work in active front end drives, which don’t have a DC bus, we can read through it. A motor that’s running at 35 hertz, on the incoming side, we discovered that all the signatures would be as if it were running at 60 hertz. If it was running as if it was on just a regular power source.
So I applied that to electrical signature. I applied that with electrical signature analysis to wind turbines. And suddenly we were seeing everything.
Allen Hall: So with that, you can see a lot of. noise or frequencies inside of that. You sampled it high enough now that you can start investigating, look inside of that data and you don’t need a lot of data.
You don’t need a lot of time. You don’t have to sit there and analyze data for hours. One set of data. Exactly. And that’s part of the key.
Howard Penrose: Now, this is a rules based system, right? Now we will, if we’re doing continuous monitoring, because we have that capability and we’re working on a capability with some of the OEMs to be able to just take data right from their towers, so we don’t have to have hardware.
to do the analysis. But we need a sample rate of a minimum of 10 kilohertz in order to be able to separate things out. And when we fall below that, the load has to be way up on the machine. The prognostic machines that are at that take data at 7, 500 hertz or less, they have to have wind speeds of at least 10 meters per second to be able to see anything.
We’re seeing it right at cut it. Which is bad. really interesting.
Allen Hall: A lot of machines take data faster than that. 15 kilohertz is what I’m here. Some of them are doing at the minute. So there’s enough data there.
Howard Penrose: But when they do 1500 kilohertz, they had, they only have very small data sets. So they switched that frequency so that we can get a longer data set.
The length of time combined with that that sampling rate is what gives us the resolution. And then because we’re doing 12 kHz, that also gives us a 6 kHz FMAX. That means we can see out to 360, 000 CPM. And most everything on a wind turbine happens under 3, 000 Hz.
Allen Hall: Oh, easy. Yeah. So that’s, and there’s your magic, right?
Now you’ve sampled the data fast enough and long enough to analyze essentially anything that’s happening on the wind turbine. What you’re measuring voltage wise and current wise all that data comes in. You then, I’m going to use some fancy terminology and I promised myself I wasn’t going to do this, but here we go.
They basically take a Fourier transform, right? So you’re looking at it in the frequency spectrum versus the time spectrum. And what that does, you start looking at rotating machines. They’ll start having peaks at certain frequencies based upon the mechanical principles in which they were designed. And then Howard, you come in and go.
That is a bearing, or a gearbox, right?
Howard Penrose: Yeah, and the nice thing is, the formulas are exactly the same. The multipliers for a bearing are the same as what I’d use in vibration. For instance, our technology we have a library of bearings in there with everything preset, so I don’t have to sit there and calculate out all the angles and number of balls and what the cage looks like and all that other crazy stuff that we learned in, in vibration school I just pull it out of a, out of a thing and the same thing that you do for, the multiplier time one RPM is the same multiplier times one Hertz.
Yeah, so we, you get the one time multiplier and you plug it in and you can identify inner race, outer race, ball, or cage. The nice thing about ESA is I don’t get harmonics. I just look at the one time. For that value, just like if I have a rotor related issue, like for instance, somebody asked me, could I detect a failing Y ring with vibration?
I said, absolutely. But you don’t have the bandwidth to do it. It would take too much memory because you would have to look out at four times the four times the. Slot frequency for the rotor, for certain aspects of the failure. Yeah, you’d have to in vibration. You might get lucky and see some pole pass frequency sidebands, which are twice the slip frequency.
But that would be mechanically related versus electrically related. So that’s going to constantly vary.
Allen Hall: So let’s talk about the wiring for a moment. So a wiring is, from simplistic terms, is how a connection internal to a motor that makes the thing spin.
Howard Penrose: Wound rotor generator.
Most wound rotor motors just have a connection made. they don’t have a ring. So in, in defigs, they normally have an actual ring like a hoop, and that goes around, and then they’ll have tabs that connect into it. Some will have direct connections. We’re working on some of those now. But what we discovered first off, we were asked by Chris Petrola from Axiona, and he did a whole presentation on this.
So I dare throw him into the weeds. He’s now with the now and he’ll appreciate it. But he had us go up to Calgary. He called me one day and I happened to be when he called on an overhead crane and a steel bell testing a wound rotor motor for failing slip rims. So we were testing, while everything’s moving, we’re over the pit of steel, a hundred feet up, staring down into molten, whatever, and he calls.
Of course, he called, so I had to answer. And he goes Hey, have you ever detected failing connections in the rotor of a defig generator? And I go, No, but I have a theory . So we go, we went up to Calgary to an to an Axion site, tested 40 turbines. He produced this at awe at the time, now a CP in 2018.
Because we did it in 2016, and then the repair shop out of Quebec went there Dallon, went there and and replaced the Y rings and took pictures of all of them. Now, of the 40 turbines, we detected 20 of them with fractured Y rings, and one, I said, I had a questionable reading. And that turned out to be a partial fracture.
They detected this, and then one year later, after we had detected them, Wind through the machines and pulled out the Y rings and replaced them up tower.
Allen Hall: Okay, so this is the key here. So not only are you able to detect problems in mechanical equipment and electrical equipment, for that matter, early, and diagnose, like, where it is health wise, it can be done so quickly, you can do most of a farm in a day.
Howard Penrose: So from 2017 to present, and wind is only about 20 percent of our work. I personally have been on over 4, 000 turbines collecting data, mostly in the US, some Canada. However, the technology is being used right now heavily in Brazil, Mexico, Canada, US. Asia and just a little bit right now in Europe, definitely in the Middle East too.
Allen Hall: Sure. Anywhere there’s a motor or a generator, you’re there.
Howard Penrose: I’m just talking about wind turbines. As far as the technology goes, it’s being used globally. The Empath system is one of the best kept secrets out there. We’re replacing vibration equipment in the industrial side, all over the place.
Monday, I’m dropping off. enough to for Reynolds aluminum to finish replacing all their vibration equipment with over 400 of our systems.
Allen Hall: Okay. See, this is where I first ran across you. I was on a wind site talking to a site manager. And I was saying, Hey, what’s cool. What’s the cool thing you’ve seen?
And the response back was, have you seen MotorDoc? Those, that equipment came in and they diagnosed every motor generator problem, gearbox problem, bearing problem. We had on each of the turbines and a couple of minutes, literally a couple of minutes, and we started to dig. We thought okay. Maybe? So we dug into them and they were 100 percent right.
Howard Penrose: I like hearing 100%. I usually tell people 85 to 90%. Even though the EPRI study that was done, looking at the technology and Empath was top. We were seen as well over 90. Closer to 95%.
Allen Hall: I think if you guys is one of the, I don’t know, one of the best kept secret, cause you’re not a secret. You’re out there doing tremendous work and OEMs know of you, operators, some operators know you very well.
Howard Penrose: OEMs, Almost all of the OEMs use us, meaning have, they have our equipment but we don’t put the names of our customers on our website to brag. We’ve actually been word of mouth for, 10 years. Really? I’ve been using the technology on wind. For over 20, since I think 2003 was my first set of towers in the Mojave desert
Allen Hall: But that’s that’s an amazing piece to this I think your story Is that you’ve done your homework and you’ve been in industry a long time you understand The physics i’ll call it associated with wind turbines motors generators that electrical machines that then You can then used to happen 40, 50 years ago, when I was a kid that those people were around all the time.
You could walk into a motor or a winding shop and people knew how these things worked and we’ve lost some of that. So you’re the part of that architecture of your, that kind of carryover into, hey we already know this stuff. Now we just need to apply some common sense to it and use it to our advantage, which is what you’ve done.
Howard Penrose: Yeah and we continue to do it. People go why aren’t you worrying about how many you sell? It’s I have no overheads. I don’t have a hundred people that I have to pay. I just, there’s only a handful of us. And with all the systems we have in the field what we do is we work ourselves out of work by building all the rules into the software.
We know that intrusive maintenance introduces faults. So everything we do, we try to do as non intrusively as possible.
Allen Hall: This is why you’re on the podcast, because I want to make sure that the select portion of the world that doesn’t know you exist then finds you. Because it’s a quick diagnostic tool, and that’s, and that was the input I got from the O& M people.
People operation maintenance people is that it’s a huge help. It’s such a simple device. They plug in you get the data it analyzes it doesn’t take a lot of Hand holding there Usually as soon as the data pops up it tells you exactly what it sees Right and you always have Howard to call if you get confused, but basically that thing tells you what’s wrong Quickly, and then you can go debug your turbine, or at least have a health status on your turbine, a real health status on your turbine without a lot of work.
That’s genius.
Howard Penrose: It reduces the wear and tear on the technician, right? They’re not climbing to to do other things. One of my good friends now from, the engineer from from H& N, Hank he got up and he explained how boroscope testing for the detection of the wiring issue is only about 50 to 60 percent accurate because you’re looking to see if something’s broken, like the insulation is broken, plus you can’t see the tabs and everything else.
We’re seeing partial fractures long before that occurs. And like I said, Up to 12 to 14 months out. So I’ll usually give it an A through F. Nobody gets an A, but a B through F I’m a horrible professor, but no, no waiting. Those grades. No, B just means continue monitoring. I don’t want people to not check because we have seen like Brazil they’re now just so you’re aware of the wiring issue and everything else.
We were the ones who discovered that was, along with Shermco and H& N, it was a joint project that it was actually fatigue, it’s not a problem with the design of the wiring. It has to do with a a subsynchronous resonance that exists on the grid. So the windings are constantly moving. They’re constantly flexing ring.
Shermco had taken sections of a ring and had a metallurgist look at it. And we could see all of the fatigue points.
Allen Hall: People don’t think of electric machines having fatigue, right? They just think them as just a bunch of coppers spinning around.
Howard Penrose: Everybody since the dawn of time thought that all of these mechanical issues were strictly mechanical.
And we’re finding that there’s electrical reasons for a lot of the mechanical conditions and there’s possible solutions to them. In fact, some of those solutions have already been worked on. But not for this reason.
Allen Hall: And that’s what I think that’s the point, right? Is that we’re in some measure, we have old technology, proven technology, but we’re changing it drastically in the way that we feed it.
Howard Penrose: From both directions, it’s not just the power generation, but we spend a lot of time on in the industrial side is what the heck they’re putting back in the system and utilities, we’ll go in, we’ll see these horrible harmonic conditions in power. ground and neutral. And we’re trying to correct it and the utilities are all going we don’t care about that.
It means nothing. We don’t bill on that. No joke. It’s wait a minute, this is actually consuming a ton of energy. Plus it’s really dumping a lot of garbage back into the system that works its way all the way back because While the transformers and certain filters take some of it out, I can go onto the bulk grid and see some of those oscillations.
Allen Hall: And that’s if you’re a wind turbine operator and you’re living with these conditions, you wouldn’t, your first thought is there’s something wrong with the OEM equipment that I purchased. I need to go debug this thing. But the mere fact that it’s connected to the grid may be driving the problem on the turbine.
And we don’t think about it that way. We think about turbine out, not grid in.
Howard Penrose: Yeah. And then a combination of, Some of the sites will do VAR correction or voltage correction and they’ll be correcting for their site next door. You know what I mean? So one site won’t be doing it, the other site will depending on the controls.
And you find that one side or the other has a higher rate of failure of all their components because of the oscillation that occurs as a direct result.
Allen Hall: Create a tank circuit. Yeah. But those, again this is, as we were talking about earlier the number of electrical engineers on staff at some of these operators is like a 1%, maybe?
2 percent of the staff? 2 percent if you’re lucky. Which there are electrical machines. That’s what they do. We need to have, we need to be a little bit I don’t want to say smarter about it, but we have tools. And this is where Empath come in and where you come in and MotorDoc comes in, you have the tools.
They’re here.
Howard Penrose: And what’s really funny about it is it’s mechanical types like vibration analysts and mechanical engineers that understand the signature they’re looking at. But they hear electrical signature analysis and all of a sudden everybody’s afraid. Or they go, oh no, that’s an electrical issue, that’s for the electricians.
No, actually, the technology was originally developed to look for bearing and gear issues in motor operated valves in the nuclear power industry. It was never meant to look at rotors. It was never meant to look at all this other stuff. It was just incidental that it did it. And, um, it’s, what’s, it’s, what’s fascinating about, the technology and its application.
Allen Hall: It’s wonderful. It’s wonderful. And for those who haven’t seen the system, how do they get onto your website? How do they find you?
Howard Penrose: They can, they can go straight. The easiest way to go is motordoc. com motordoc.com and then they can go to EmpathCMS which i have some videos of wind turbine stuff or MotorDoc ai where i have a little you know podcast of maybe 50 people if i’m lucky where i talk about a lot of this and show how it works and so on so i’m trying to get the information out i published a book on it Practical Electrical and Current Signature Analysis of Electric Machinery and Systems, which includes a chapter on wind turbines.
Allen Hall: I really appreciate you being on this podcast. I like talking to electrical people that are knowledgeable and have had experience in industry for a long time because you’re such a huge resource to everybody and we need to be using you more than we probably are. But, and it’s good to get the word out, right?
Because there’s some parts of the world and some parts of America that may not have heard of you. So let’s get the word out. Hey, go check out Motordoc and get ahold of Howard because he’s a resource. Howard, thank you so much for being on the podcast.
Howard Penrose: Absolutely. Thank you.
https://weatherguardwind.com/empathcms-fast-fault-detection-wind-turbines/
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LM Wind Power Cuts 60% of Denmark Staff
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LM Wind Power Cuts 60% of Denmark Staff
The crew discusses LM Wind Power’s dramatic layoff of 60% of remaining Danish staff, dropping from 90 to just 31 workers. What does this mean for thousands of wind farms with LM blades? Is government intervention possible? Who might acquire the struggling blade manufacturer? Plus, a preview of the Wind Energy O&M Australia 2026 conference in Melbourne this February.
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Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!
If you haven’t downloaded your latest edition of PES Wind Magazine, now’s the time issue four for 2025. It’s the last issue for 2025 is out and I just received mine in the Royal Mail. I had a brief time to review some of the articles inside of this issue. Tremendous content, uh, for the end of the year.
Uh, you wanna sit down and take a good long read. There’s plenty of articles that affect what you’re doing in your wind business, so it’s been a few moments. Go to peswind.com Download your free copy and read it today. You’re listening to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast, brought to you by build turbines.com.
Learn, train, and be a part of the Clean Energy Revolution. Visit build turbines.com today. Now here’s your hosts, Alan Hall, Joel Saxon, Phil Totaro, and Rosemary Barnes. Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy [00:01:00]Podcast. I’m your host, Alan Hall in the Queen city of Charlotte, North Carolina. I’ve got Yolanda Padron in Texas.
Joel Saxon up in Wisconsin and Rosemary Barnes down under in Australia, and it has been a, a really odd Newsweek. There is a slow down happening in wind. Latest news from Ella Wind Power is they’re gonna lay off about 60% of their staff in Denmark. They’ve only have about 90 employees there at the moment.
Which is a dramatic reduction of what that company once was. Uh, so they’re planning to lay off about 59 of the 90 workers that are still there. Uh, the Danish media is reporting. There’s a lot of Danish media reporting on this at the moment. Uh, there’s a letter that was put out by Ellen Windpower and it discusses that customers have canceled orders and are moving, uh, their blade production to internal factories.
And I, I assume. That’s a [00:02:00] GE slash Siemens effort that is happening, uh, that’s affecting lm and customers are willing to pay prices that make it possible to run the LM business profitably. Uh, the company has also abandoned all efforts on large blades because I, I assume just because they don’t see a future in it for the time being now, everybody is wondering.
How GE Renova is involved in this because they still do own LM wind power. It does seem like there’s two pieces to LM at the minute. One that serves GE Renova and then the another portion of the company that’s just serving outside customers. Uh, so far, if, if you look at what GE Renova paid for the company and what revenue has been brought in, GE Renova has lost about 8.3 billion croner, which is a little over a billion dollars since buying the company in 2017.
So it’s never really been. Hugely profitable over that time. And remember a few months ago, maybe a month ago now, or two months ago, the CEO of LM [00:03:00] Windpower left the company. Uh, and I now everyone, I’m not sure what the future is for LM Windpower, uh, because it’s, it has really dramatically shrunk. It’s down to what, like 3000 total employees?
I think they were up at one point to a little over when Rosie was there, about 14,000 employees. What has happened? Maybe Rosemary, you should start since you were working there at one point.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I dunno. It always makes me really sad and there’s still a few people that I used to work with that were there when I went to Denmark in May and caught up with a bunch of, um, my old colleagues and most of them had moved on because a lot of firing had already happened by that point.
But there were still a few there, but the mood was pretty despondent and I think that they guessed that this was coming. But I just find it really hard to see how with the number, just the pure number of people that are left there. I, I find it really hard to see how they can even support what they’ve still [00:04:00] got in the field.
Um. Let alone like obviously they cut way back on manufacturing. Okay. Cut Way back on developing new products. Okay. But you still do need some capabilities to work through warranty claims and um, you know, and any kind of serial issues. Yeah, I would be worried about things like, um, you know, from time to time you need a new, a new blade or a new set of blades produced.
Maybe a lot of them, you know, if you discover an issue, there’s a serial defect that doesn’t, um, become obvious until 10 years into the turbine’s lifetime. You might need to replace a whole bunch of blades and are you gonna be able to, like, what’s, what is gonna happen to this huge number of assets that are out there with LM blades on there?
Uh, I, yeah, I, I would really like to see some announcements about what they’re keeping, you know, what functionality they’re planning to keep and what they’re planning to excise.
Joel Saxum: But I mean, at the end of the day, if it’s, if [00:05:00] the business is not profitable to run that they have no. Legal standing to have to stay open?
Rosemary Barnes: No, no, of course not. We all know that there, there’s, you know, especially like you go through California, there’s all sorts of coast turbines there that nobody knows how to maintain them anymore. Right. And, um, yeah, and, and around there was one in, um, in Texas as well with some weird kind of gearbox. I can’t remember what exactly, but yeah, like the company went bankrupt, no one knew what to do with them, so they just, you know, like fell into disrepair and couldn’t be used anymore.
’cause if you can’t. Operate them safely, then you can’t let no one, the government is not gonna let you just, you know, just. Try your luck, operate them until rotors start flying off. You know, like that’s not really how it works. So yeah, I do think that like you, you can’t just stay silent about, um, what you expect to happen because you know, like maybe I have just done some, a bit of catastrophizing and, you know, finding worst case scenarios, but that is where your mind naturally goes.
And the absence of information about what you can expect, [00:06:00] then that’s what. People are naturally gonna do what I’ve just done and just think through, oh, you know, what, what could this mean for me? It might be really bad. So, um, yeah, it is a little bit, a little bit interesting.
Allen Hall: Delamination and bottom line, failures and blades are difficult problems to detect early.
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Miss C-I-C-N-D-T Maps. Every critical defect delivers actionable reports and provides support to get your blades. Back in service, so visit cic ndt.com because catching blade problems early will save you millions. Yolanda, what are asset managers [00:07:00] thinking about the LM changes as they proceed with orders and think about managing their LM Blade fleet over the next couple of years, knowing that LM is getting much smaller Quicker?
Yolanda Padron: Yeah, and this all comes at a time when. A lot of projects are reaching the end of the full service agreements that they had with some of these OEMs, right? So you already know that your risk profile is increasing. You already know. I mean, like Rosie, you said worst case scenario, you have a few years left before you don’t know what to do with some of the issues that are being presented.
Uh, because you don’t count with that first line of support that you typically would in this industry. It’s really important to be able to get a good mix of the technical and the commercial. Right? We’ve all seen it, and of course, we’re all a little bit biased because we’re all engineers, right? So we, to us it makes a lot of sense to go over the engineering route.
But the pendulum swung, swung so [00:08:00] far towards the commercial for Ella, the ge, that it just, it. They were always thinking about, or it seemed from an outsider’s point of view, right, that they were always thinking about, how can I get the easiest dollar today without really thinking about, okay, five 10 steps in the future, what’s going to happen to my business model?
Like, will this be sustainable? It did Just, I don’t know, it seems to me like just letting go of so many engineers and just going, I know Rosie, you mentioned a couple of podcasts ago about how they just kept on going from like Gen A to Gen B, to Gen C, D, and then it just, without really solving any problems initially.
Like, it, it, it was just. It’s difficult for me to think that nobody in those leadership positions thought about what was gonna happen in the [00:09:00]future.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. I think it was about day-to-day survival. ’cause I was definitely there like saying, you know, there’s too many, um, technical problems that Yeah. When I was saying that a hundred, a hundred of versions of me were all saying that, a lot of us were saying it.
Just in the cafeteria amongst ourselves. And a lot of us, uh, you know, a bit more outspoken Danish people don’t really believe a lot in a strict hierarchy. So certainly people were saying it to directors and VPs and CEOs, but, um, yeah, it was, uh, I think it was more about like the commercial reality of today is that there won’t be a commercial.
Tomorrow to experience these engineering problems if we don’t make these, um, decisions. Now, if, if that makes sense. As a really complicated way of saying we need to be able to sell this product, otherwise we’re not gonna sell anything. And then no one will be, no one will have a job in 10 years regardless.
So. We’ll solve, you know, whatever quality problems that arise from doing too many new technologies at once, at [00:10:00] least we’ll be, the company will still exist to be able to have a go at solving them if we, you know, make these sales. Um, which it won’t if we don’t. So I think that that would be the, like the other point of view, like it’s really easy to say now, oh yeah, we should have, um, we shouldn’t have done that, but yeah, I, I’m pretty sure management’s gonna tell you why they did it is for the sales.
Joel Saxum: This is an odd case being lm an ex Danish company now owned by GE Renova, which is a US based company.
Allen Hall: Global.
Joel Saxum: Global really. But yeah, but when we get into this, too big to fail type thing, right? So like Siemens cesa, having the German government back them up with a note, um, when they were having troubles a year and a half ago.
Uh. Is there a award like the too big to fail in the United States where the government bailed out the auto worker or the auto manufacturers and stuff like that. I don’t see that happening here because the company’s too small. But at what level do governments [00:11:00] intervene? Right? So it’s, I know every government’s gonna be different and every, but there’s have their own criteria and there’s not a hard set, probably line or metric of like, oh, you have this much impact on society, so we must support you to make sure you survive.
Well, when Rosemary, when you say like in, when you were there, you were there five years ago, 2020, right before COVID. Right. At that point in time, 20% of the world’s blades were LM blades of the global fleet. Well, if that’s was true still, that would be a hundred thousand plus turbines in the global fleet.
That would be LM blades. And if we have. Issues with them and we can’t solve them. I think one, one of the, one of the things that we’re, that we’re probably thankful for is there is that many, so there has been a lot of independent engineering expertise that’s been able to fix some of them. A lot of independent ISPs, you know, out there, service companies, blade repair companies that have been able to figure out how to make these things even, you know, regardless of getting the layup pattern or layup designs or any kind of engineering information from, from Malam [00:12:00] or from the OEMs.
Um, we have been able to maintain them, so that’s good. But is there a level where, I know Alan, you were shaking your head, but is there a level where anybody steps in from a government standpoint to save lm?
Allen Hall: I would almost bet that Renova has talked to the Danish government. Somebody at LM has, I would have to think that they have already.
And has been, at least in the press, no response. And with this latest announcement, it doesn’t seem like the Danish government wants to be involved. So my, my take on it is they have an American stamp on ’em right now, and Denmark and the United States are not playing nice to one another. So why would I help ge?
Why would I do that? And that’s not a bad response.
Rosemary Barnes: Potentially it wouldn’t even have to be necessarily the US or the Danish government that might have to get involved, because I know in Australia, and I’m, I can’t believe it’s different anywhere else. You have to be able to safely operate, uh, an asset like a, a wind turbine.
And that’s, um, some, [00:13:00] a responsibility of both the asset owner and the operator, but also the manufacturer and so they can compel to provide the information that you need to operate safely. I’ve always wondered how, um, ’cause you know, all the OEMs not talking, uh, LM or GE specifically here, they, they don’t really give away enough information to, um, operate assets safely, in my opinion.
So that is the key thing that you just, you can’t lose otherwise. You’re going to end up with blades that have to be scrapped or that you have to, you know, guess that it’s probably okay and then see how it goes. And, you know, that’s. Good a lot of the time, but it’s, it’s gonna make things less safe into the future.
You would expect to see more blade failures if you saw that happening a lot. So, you know, I would at least wanna make sure that you’re keeping, keeping people, keeping those models and keeping the people that know how to run them. Enough of them around. [00:14:00] Or making them publicly available.
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Over 550 delegates and 100 exhibitors will be at this game changing event. Connect with decision makers, explore market ready innovations and secure the partnerships to accelerate your growth. Register now and take your place at the center of the UK’s offshore Wind future. Just visit supply chain spotlight.co.uk and register today.
How soon before ING Yang puts in an offer to buy LM and or TPI? That’s gonna happen in the next six months. It has to.
Joel Saxum: What about instead of buying the factory, what if someone rises from the ashes and just buys the molds?
Allen Hall: I think you have to eat the workers. I think that’s gonna be the trouble,
Joel Saxum: but I don’t think you want them.
Allen Hall: Wow. That’s a hot take.
Joel Saxum: But honestly, like the quality coming out now, and I’ll, and I will caveat this as well, the [00:15:00] quality is not their, the quality is not all their fault. The quality of some respects is the way it was designed for manufacturing. But there is issues that we have seen and has been, have been uncovered that have been in the news, in the, in the free press that show that stuff happening in factories that shouldn’t be happening.
So do you actually want that or do you, this is why I say someone rises from the ashes and, and or, and creates something with a bunch of inco, you know, like knowing the pitfalls and the, the, the things that have happened that are bad, the things that can go well that are good. You know, when we talk to some of the people in the industry that have been around blade manufacturing, and they, and they have told us, man, we’ve seen.
Quality, uh, control mechanisms thrown on the shelves, even though we know they work just because people, defactor didn’t wanna use them for whatever reason. I don’t, you know, you don’t know, um, whether it’s inspection, whether it’s, you know, robotics this, or whether it’s [00:16:00] this solution here. Like there’s a possibility that we could do this way better.
Maybe there’s this case right now where someone is like, you know what, robotics, let’s do this. Let’s try to make it happen. Let’s get rid of this incumbent knowledge of automated blades and start fresh from a. Scratch
Allen Hall: my other hot take was GE sells their wind business,
Joel Saxum: the entire wind business.
Allen Hall: Yeah.
Joel Saxum: To who
Allen Hall: Ing Yang or somebody?
Anybody,
Rosemary Barnes: if they wanna do that, I’d recommend doing it in the, um, current administration would probably be the most likely to allow that to happen because I would imagine that, uh, another time that people might not be so happy that, uh, the US has therefore no wind turbine manufacturer.
Allen Hall: Does anybody else not think so that that’s a possibility.
They’re not listening to offers right now.
Joel Saxum: I would say Mitsubishi maybe. I don’t think Ming Yang. I don’t think some, I don’t think a Chinese, no, but I do think a Korea and a Japanese, a German
Allen Hall: could do it.
Joel Saxum: Yeah. Well, that would entertain the offer. [00:17:00]
Rosemary Barnes: What about one of the large ISPs buying, you know, the ability to, you know.
Properly, properly service blades for, you know, many, many, many manufacturers. There’s a lot of knowledge that you’d get there. Um, the ability to replace blades, maybe it splits into two and there’s, you know, one company takes it for manufacturing into the future, and which case they’re probably just buying factories and not really worried about much else.
And then somebody else buys molds and, um, knowledge. Models, those sorts of things
Joel Saxum: as a pitch for what exactly what you’re saying. So now let’s go back to, um, was it Larry Fink who said that they’re in investing in infrastructure, big time in the future, energy infrastructure is the future, da, da, da. And they, or like BlackRock’s been throwing money at everything, right?
They’ve been just buying, buying, buying, buying, buying. If some, someone came to them with the right [00:18:00] plan, there’s where your capital could come from. Who is it? Right? You know, that there’s players out there that may not be in the ISP world, I think is, p is interesting, Rosemary, but like a, a next era that’s like this with GEs,
Allen Hall: Adani,
Joel Saxum: a Donny’s in too much hot water to to, to make a deal with that, to let the SEC allow that.
Rosemary Barnes: Here’s my hot take. So LM started at the lm, it stands for lco Mills Fabric, which means, um, furniture manufacturer, right? So they started out making furniture, then they were making, um, caravans, I believe, and then there were, so that was all wood. Then they started making caravans outta fiberglass. Then they started making boats because those are also fiberglass and wood kind of things.
Then they moved into wind turbine blades and became LM glass fiber. So now they’re only doing fiberglass things. And then it was LM wind power. They only were doing wind power. Maybe, you know, [00:19:00] are they gonna go into, I don’t know, making airplanes next, or, or rockets, or are they gonna take a step backwards and, you know, go back into furniture?
Allen Hall: How do you put a value on a company that’s losing money?
Joel Saxum: That’s where I was going, Mr. Hall, October of 2016 when GE bought them, they paid one point. Six, 5 billion US dollars. I don’t think that that’s was probably a too wild of a price back then, but there’s no way that they’re worth that much now with what has has happened.
That being said, say they’re worth, I don’t know, I’m just gonna throw a number out there. Say they’re worth 800 million, half of that. I don’t see that as like a crazy amount for someone else, like Rosemary said, that may be crossing industry silos to pick up. Some factories, some, some composites knowledge, some other things as well, as long as they get, get into it.
With the understanding that this is a fire sale and [00:20:00] things need to be fixed,
Rosemary Barnes: isn’t, um, ozempic Danish? So there must be some, build, some Danish billionaires. Maybe there’s gonna be some national pride that that kicks in and makes somebody want to, you know, like Denmark is quite known for wind power. Um, if you combine, you know, the demise of LM with vest also.
Announcing a whole lot of job cuts. I, it’s not such a fast stretch to think that some Danish billionaire is gonna be like, you know what, Denmark should still have wind industry and I’m gonna make sure it happens.
Allen Hall: No shot. I don’t see it. I, it would be awesome if they did
Joel Saxum: Maersk, lm,
Allen Hall: but Meers doesn’t wanna lose money.
Why you, why would you invest in something that’s going to lose money for the next five years? Who’s doing that today?
Joel Saxum: Let’s just do a little comparison. So TPI claiming bankruptcy the other day when we looked at the Val, the market cap of them, they’re publicly traded. They were a hundred million, weren’t they?
Like a couple, six months ago,
Allen Hall: [00:21:00] $1.5 million.
Joel Saxum: Oh my God. It’s 1.5 million. Do you mean you could buy TPI over 1.5 million?
Allen Hall: I can get a second mortgage and have a pretty good take of that business. It has no value because it’s not making money. You, you’ve, it’s EBITDA times X.
Yolanda Padron: It’d be really interesting to see like an is like them turning into an ISB.
Like I will fix everything that I manufactured, gear, the molds, or like I will replace the parts.
Rosemary Barnes: It’s hard as well. I just make a few blades here or there. Um, because they only get cheap when you make thousands of them. But that said like sometimes people have to pay, at least in Australia, like it’s not uncommon that you need a new blade.
You have to pay a million dollars for it. So in that case, you know, like that’s apparently, you know, TPI, you buy TPI for one and a half and you make two blades in your first year. Then you know,
Yolanda Padron: you make a blade set, you’re done.
Joel Saxum: Yeah. So they were worth a hundred million in market cap a year ago today. [00:22:00] So it’s like a 99.6% decrease since last year.
Allen Hall: When you file bankruptcy, stuff like that happens. Here’s gonna be the rub. Whoever decides to do whatever with it, they’re gonna have to have a lot of cash because I guarantee you vendors have not been paid or. Or vendors are asking for money upfront before they make a delivery, and that’s not the way that GE likes to operate.
GE likes to operate. I buy this thing and then six months later I pay you half and another six months later, I may pay the remaining half. They don’t like to pay things upfront and. It’s gonna be a problem.
Joel Saxum: Net 180, and then on day 179, they’re gonna find a magic error in your invoice and it resets the clock.
Allen Hall: Australia’s wind farms are growing fast, but are your operations keeping up? Join us February 17th and 18th at Melbourne’s Poolman on the park for Wind Energy o and m Australia 2026, where you’ll connect with the [00:23:00] experts solving real problems in maintenance asset management and OEM relations. Walk away with practical strategies to cut costs and boost uptime that you can use the moment you’re back on site.
Register now at WM a 2020 six.com. Wind Energy o and m Australia is created by Wind professionals for wind professionals because this industry needs solutions, not speeches. So looking for something to do in February while America is in the middle of a winter snowstorm. You wanna go to Australia for?
Wind O and M Australia 2026 and it is going to be February, what, Joel?
Joel Saxum: 17th and 18th at the Pullman on the park in sunny. Melbourne
Allen Hall: and Rosemary, what’s on the schedule for the event in Sunny Australia?
Rosemary Barnes: Well, it’s, uh, agenda just full of the topics that Australian operators are talking about at the moment.
Um, there’s, you are gonna be [00:24:00] topics on compliance. Um, also training is a, a big thing. Training and resources to get workforce up to speed. Um, also some on big data and ai, they’re catchy. Uh, yeah, hyped up terms. But can you actually do something useful with it? I mean, you definitely can, but how do you, um, and then just heaps of stuff about just specific asset management problems that people are having be a lot of talking about problems.
And there’s also gonna be a lot of talking about solutions. So that’s kind of the point. It’s the, it’s the place where you can get. Both sides. ’cause I think, yeah, both sides are very important.
Joel Saxum: I think one, one of the things that is was good about the event last year and we’re excited about this year as well, is we tried to fit in as many networking opportunities as we could.
We’ve got a lot of coffee breaks. We’ve got breakfast, we’ve got a cocktail hour, we’ve got lunches, we’ve got all these things, and it’s kind of designed around keeping the whole crew together in one spot. So we’re able to share information, have those conversations. Oh, you have this asset. Oh, I [00:25:00] know this one.
Um, operators, speaking to operators, speaking to ISPs about specialties fixes. What are you doing? Could we implement that in our fleet? Those kind of things, right? And that’s about the, we, we talk on the podcast and in our daily lives regularly. Everybody here in the podcast is about collaboration and sharing information and sharing knowledge, and that’s the way that we’re gonna forward the, uh, industry.
So we’re really excited. Again, again, this is round two. We’re bringing this event down to Australia. Last year was great. I think we had basically every major operator represented, uh, at the event. And we’re gonna repeat that again this year.
Rosemary Barnes: I really like the size of it. Last year, I think we were about 170 or 180, which was our limit for that, that event, we did sell out this year.
We, uh, increased that a little bit to 250. Um, but it’s a good size. It’s not like, I don’t know if there’s any other, um, introverts out there, but usually when I go to an event, I get so exhausted from just. Uh, I don’t know the, the pressure of if there’s [00:26:00] an exhibition hole that you’re supposed to wander around and, you know, like the last conference I went to had like probably 20 parallel streams and it’s just like, what am I supposed to see?
Oh, these sessions all sound similar, which is gonna be the good one. Um, and then you’re trying to meet up with people as well. This event, it’s targeted enough. It’s one session. You’re gonna find probably at least 95% of the sessions interesting if you are working in wind energy, o and m in Australia. So you just go there, you sit down, you watch the interesting information, and every single person that you run into when you at lunch or coffee or whatever, every every single person is gonna be someone you can have an interesting conversation with.
So it’s just. It’s a lot, uh, it’s a lot easier for someone who, I mean, you, Americans, you’re all, uh, it’s like national law, right? That you have to be extroverted. It’s not allowed to be any kind of other personality type in America. But in Australia, there’s a lot of, uh, a lot of introverts. And, uh, I would say that this is a much, much more introvert friendly event than [00:27:00] your typical big, big, broad conference.
Allen Hall: Well, you won’t want to miss Wilma 2026. In order to get, what are those 250 seats, you need to register and you need to register now. So visit wma w om a 2020 six.com and. Get signed in, get registered, and we’ll see you in Australia in February. That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast.
Thanks for joining us as we explore the latest in wind energy technology and industry insights. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Just reach out to us on LinkedIn and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. And if you found value in today’s conversation.
Please leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show and we’ll catch you here next week on the Uptime Wind Energy [00:28:00] Podcast.
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