Connect with us

Published

on

Weather Guard Lightning Tech

ECO TLP Brings Concrete Foundations to Floating Wind

Nicole Johnson Murphy, CEO of ECO TLP, and Gordon Jackson join to discuss concrete floating wind foundations, production-line construction, and markets from Hawaii to Japan.

Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly newsletter on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on YouTube, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

Welcome to Uptime Spotlight, shining Light on Wind. Energy’s brightest innovators. This is the progress powering tomorrow.

Allen Hall: Offshore wind obviously is a big deal right now. There’s a lot of, uh, countries looking at it and investigating it, doing it, uh, but not really at scale yet. And this is where ECO TLP comes in and. Nicole, let’s just start there with a background. What problem were you trying to solve when you started Eco TLP?

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: Yeah, so, so we were designing for, uh, a site off of Hawaii in 2011, uh, for the Hico RFP. And so we were designing for 300 meter water depth from the beginning. Um, so we were always trying to find a way to work with the ports, with the vessel, with the infrastructure that was existing off Hawaii. And with, and that worked with Jones Act vessels.

So we were always trying to meet that [00:01:00] requirement with, you know, and meet the cost, try to, we saw there were much tighter margins in offshore wind than in oil and gas, for example, at that water depth. So we’re trying to find something that was cost effective.

Allen Hall: Next question, obviously is what makes those deep water foundations so difficult?

Gordon Jackson: Well, it’s the water depth, uh, primarily, um, you know, uh, you need to put foundations down in, uh, extremely deep water. Um, and they’re gonna be pretty flexible. Um, so you’re trying to control the, the amount of motion that you get at the surface through your, uh, uh, you know, your deep water, uh, facility. So, um, it’s really.

Really that challenge, you know, and, uh, you know, the weight of components through the water depth, like, um, you know, likes of chain would be completely impossible. Um, in 300 meters of water. Uh, you need to use something that’s a little bit lighter. Yeah, to mow you to the, uh, to the seabed

Allen Hall: [00:02:00] because it does seem a little odd just not to make the foundations taller, basically.

More steel drive it down in, we know that process, we understand that process. It works offshore, uh, near shore in a, in a lot of locations. But once you get to what depth as it becomes financially or engineering wise, impossible

Gordon Jackson: for offshore wind, fixed, fixed structures in, I mean, maybe a hundred meters of water are gonna be.

Economic. Um, but you know, they’ll be costly compared to what’s been done now because, uh, you know, of all the extra structure you need for the, uh, for the deeper water. But, uh, I think you’ll see, you know, a crossover between fixed and floating, you know, around the, um, you know, 70 to a hundred meter water mark.

You know, that’s sort the range.

Allen Hall: Well, and that leads to the next question, which is. It’s all financial, right? At some point, the numbers [00:03:00] don’t work. If the cost of foundations don’t come down, especially in fixed bottom offshore or floating offshore, we lose a lot of offshore wind resource. Uh, Nicole can, can you gimme a scale at what we’re missing if we don’t get to a more economical solution for floating offshore?

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: So we’ve estimated for our market for, um, a very deep water market. So we, we now actually have a, a solution that goes across all water depths. So we’re starting with, um, you know, this, this gravity based structure now with, and, and Gordon’s team has been really involved in that, uh, development. And then now we can take that same slip form, concrete cylinder.

Format and take it across all the water depths. So, so we basically can hit every water depth now for a very low cost. It’s a very simple, just, you know, local, regionally designed and built, uh, system. We, we crowdsource the labor and the inputs. Um, and so we [00:04:00] try to, and we also try to give the procurement team of our clients their, you know, an ability to do their job and, and be able to bid out aspects of our design, um, across.

Different vendors. So you always wanna give, in construction, you always wanna give, uh, the procurement team a job to do so they can actually get that price, keep that price down on the installation.

Allen Hall: Yeah, that’s a unique look that eco TOP is putting to this problem. Which is moving away from steel, which is expensive obviously, and it’s sort of difficult to transport at times to a more localized solution, which is concrete.

And thinking about the problem a little bit differently, does that open up a number of doors then in terms of the countries that can get involved in, in floating or near shore, uh, wind projects, but just because you’re driving the cost down?

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: Absolutely. And I’ll let Gordon speak to the ax. He’s worked. His whole career in offshore concrete.

But I think it’s, I think it’s a, it’s a great, it’s the only way we would do it. We actually have shipyards in our companies, our partners own [00:05:00]shipyards, and we, we just would never probably ex try to try to create this many units across the world and scale and steel. We’d only do concrete.

Gordon Jackson: Yeah. My first concrete project sort of broke the mold of how you do, uh, construction of concrete offshore structures.

Uh, it was entirely built within a dry dock and, uh. After we’d gone on and delivered that project, um, that was in the late eighties. I spent the next 10 years, uh, working on projects all around the world, looking at doing the same sort of thing in different countries. Um, because you, you only needed, you know, 10, 12 meters of water, um, at the shore and you could, um, build a structure and um, you know, get it out there in the water.

Um. It really opened up the market for, for offshore concrete structures that, uh, that, uh, first project that we did.

Allen Hall: So using that first project as leverage and knowledge of how to do these things, how much advantage [00:06:00] does concrete give you over steel?

Gordon Jackson: It, it’s difficult to say because it bends country to country.

Um, and, um, you know, quite often you’re competing against, um, you know, steel built in some, uh, very low cost fabrication countries. Um, so if you’re in a high cost, you know, high labor cost country, like, you know, I worked in Australia, um, and um, you know, the labor cost there was extremely high. So concrete wasn’t particularly cheap, but the overall solutions that we came up with, um, were cheap.

You know?

Allen Hall: So does that involve basically like slip forms or how are you, how are you thinking about that problem? Because it’s a huge engineering task and you only learn. By doing it on some level because all great plans, uh, always run into trouble as soon as you try to implement them. So you took all that previous knowledge and then applied it to this problem, and now you have, uh, uh, basically [00:07:00] trimmed or, or slimmed, uh, the design down into, you have a, a very economical model, even in more uneconomical economies because of labor laws and cost of labor and access and those kind of things.

What does that look like now? And what’s your thought process on, Hey, this is what it’s gonna look like? Can we get, uh, keyside, how do we do this and how do we keep this thing simple?

Gordon Jackson: Uh, well the key thing is we’re looking at, uh, a production line approach, which has been, you know, it’s tried and tested for, um, for marine, for marine concrete construction, you know, construction of key walls and um, and you know, the like, um, we’re using exactly that same system.

We’ve just been tried and tested to create a production line of, um, eco TLP units or eco GBS units where we’re building, you know, onshore and where we’re going from station to station, doing a task at each station. [00:08:00] So it’s exactly like a production line, um, you know, that you’re be familiar with and, you know, you load out the completed structure onto a, a barge, um, and then you.

Submerge that barge and your structure floats off and that’s, that’s the real key to getting the, uh, the economy from the, the concrete basis.

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: Yeah, and I’ll say that the opex is really something we focus a lot on because it’s, it’s not just what you’re doing on the CapEx and the development and the port, it’s actually that 30 year lifetime maintenance.

And this is a, when you, we fully submerge our floater, which is basically inert in the ocean. It’s, it’s very eco-friendly with the ocean. There’s no paint, there’s no, you know, maintenance on the floater over the lifespan. You’re, you’re monitoring those, the moorings and the, the weight of any marine, you know, buildup on those moorings and things like that.

But generally it’s a very low maintenance solution and it’s very heavy and kind of like a comfortable car [00:09:00] ride for the turbine. It, it really has slow motions. It, it’s, um, almost like a, you know, a high skyscraper in the water. You know, you’re just the top of that skyscraper is moving a little bit. But you’re, um, you’re really giving it that comfortable, slow ride over its lifetime.

It’s not hitting a lot of turbulence, like a, a different type of odor.

Allen Hall: Yeah. It is a different concept, really, right? That you have this mass at the bottom and you have this mass at the top, which is the, the cell on the wind turbine. And if you can design it just right, everything dampens becomes stable.

Even in turbulent water. How long did it take you to figure out that aspect of the design? Because it does seem like a lot of projects hit a, an end point right there because the motion of the turbine is not good for the lifetime of the turbine.

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: We, we look at it as a, a kind of hybrid spar, CLP, so, so the original design came from my late father who was, who had designed echo fis for children’s [00:10:00] petroleum in the early.

Uh, late sixties, I guess. And, um, so he’d come from oil and gas and he’d come from that concrete, uh, construction background. And, and he is very comfortable with it. And I think, um, Gordon, that’s part of why I like working with Gordon. ’cause Gordon has that same, uh, sort of long-term view on, on these construction principles.

Um,

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: and I think that, that what we saw though is the margins are so different from oil and gas, and so you have to have almost a poor man’s TLP is what we would call it because it’s. It’s gotta be a very simple version of A TLP that can roll out in mass quantities. And, and as you know, coming up with a company that, you know, business plan, you’d wanna be able to, to really scale the business.

And so we had to come up with something that you can make. In different parts of the world at the same time, you’re not tied to one shipyard or one construction.

Allen Hall: Well, even in terms of ship usage, you’re going to reduce the size of the ship considerably. You’re not using big dedicated ships that are really [00:11:00] expensive to operate or to keep in the area, even just to have them there as a lot of money.

You’re thinking about, uh, a different design in terms of. Simple ships that you can find locally. How much does that really lower the cost of deployment?

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: Quite a lot actually. I, I mean, it depends on, you know, so the other, there’s this other, other aspect of installing the wind turbine on the foundation. So we have this fixed to fixed platform concept where you come further, a little bit further offshore and, and give you that, that draft depth that we need.

And then we have a fixed platform that just stays in place and, and we bring the turbines to it and, and float them out. It’s all a self floating. Unit, whether it’s the GBS that, um, Gordon’s been working with us and or the eco TLP. So we, so we we’re really independent of those large vessels. Um, for the most part, you know, we’re, we’re really try and then you, once you install the turbine, you can tow the entire unit out with two tugs.

Two to three tugs.

Allen Hall: That’s remarkable. So essentially because you [00:12:00] used, uh, a basic. Uh, Henry Ford type process to, to create these foundations and to think about the problem differently. Not only can you deploy it, uh, easier than a lot of things we’re doing right now on top of it, it works over a variety of depths and I think that’s a the hard thing for people to grasp because when we talk about offshore particularly start getting off the continental shelves here, you’re talking about.

More than a hundred meters typically of water. But you also have a, the gravity based system and the TLP system are all sort of interconnected into the basic philosophy. Can you, can you explain like the, the, the backbone of how that engineering works?

Gordon Jackson: Uh, well it’s essentially, it’s, um, we’re using the same structural form in both, both fixed and floating.

It’s, it’s basically, it’s two cylinders, uh, you know, one inside the other. A little bit of structure, which joins the two cylinders together. Um, that’s it.

Allen Hall: Gord, you make it sound so simple, but the, the [00:13:00]engineering is complicated to get to that point. And once you get to that level of, oh, that design actually works in a variety of depths, that opens up your customer base quite a bit.

Have you had inquiries from sort of nearshore people? Or fixed bottom people thinking like, whoa, I could actually save myself a bunch of time and money, which is the, the real limiting factor on offshore wind at the moment. Are you starting to see some momentum there that, uh, operators, developers are starting to rethink this problem and not just do what they did last week?

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: Absolutely. I mean, one of the ways we came about the g you know, taking the Ecot P and transforming it to the eco GBS was, was recommended by a client, was, you know, that was their, their ask actions. That’s, that’s always the best way to start. A product development cycle because, you know, somebody’s interested.

Um, and I think, you know, and part of the reason I found Gordon to work with early on in our, um, the life of our company is, is his background in, in GBS development. He did, he developed the gravitas, uh, GBS [00:14:00] 10 years ago. So I think we, we got lucky that our, uh, civil structural engineering partner with AUP was, was already really comfortable with, you know, looking at this.

Allen Hall: Um,

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: so I think that’s, that’s part of, you know, you always want the clients to be interested, you know, before you start investing. You know, you don’t wanna design a product that’s in your head or your, you know, in your, in your company lunchroom without a real ask for it.

Allen Hall: Right? And I, I think also you have a, once you have the engineering pretty well done and.

Obviously do now you’re trying to touch a number of countries and every culture has its own way of, of one of the construction business to do it slightly differently. South Korea does it different than Scotland, for example. You are working across cultures and trying to make the the same design. Uh, apply to all those different areas.

Are, have you learned [00:15:00] some things from that? Is it, are you able to basically set the same assembly line in every place? Or, or are there different, different kinds of concrete, different kinds of access, different kinds of ports that you have to deal with? What are those variables there that, that change the way you do business?

Gordon Jackson: All the characteristics, ports are, uh, you know, obviously different. Um, but you know, really you just need space. Um. And access to reasonably deep water. Um, you know, from, from that, uh, from that space. And, uh, you know, it can get surprisingly difficult to find that, um, certainly in the UK and, uh, you know, in Northern Europe, people wanna build marines and, uh, waterfront living, uh, rather than having, uh, you know, an industrial facility, uh, you know, on the doorsteps.

So, you know, in, you know, developed countries. Um. It can be hard to find that space. But, um, you know, in some, some parts of the world, you know, there’s lots of [00:16:00] space, um, available. Um, some good port facilities that can be, can be utilized. Uh, and then it’s just in, in all civil engineering works, you know, um, you go to do the job, you go wherever the job is, you mobilize there.

Um. You know, you put in the systems, uh, and equipment that you need to build, build a structure, and then normally you go away at the end of the job, you know, you hand it over to the client. Um, you know what, what, um, what would be good here is if we could set up some regional centers where you’ve done the, done the investment in the yard, um, and then you can, uh, you can amortize those costs of development over a number of projects.

Then you should start to see, uh, you know, real, real good cost savings.

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: Just one thing, you know, our footprint of our, of our cylinders is about a third of the footprint of a semi sub, for example. So, [00:17:00] so our footprint on the land port is very small.

Allen Hall: Well, I think that makes sense because if you watch the fixed bottom projects, particularly in the United States.

The first thing they had to do is rebuild the ports. The ports weren’t set for the scale and so they needed to expand the ports. That means you have to acquire land, you’ve gotta develop it. There’s a lot of processes involved. ’cause you’re talking about city, state, and federal government being involved.

Obviously federal in the United States is a problem. Uh, so just getting the port developed was a huge process for. Fixed bottom. You’re thinking about that differently though, because the, the reduced amount of space, the, uh, you don’t have to be in a huge industrial area, but all obviously it would be nice, but you do run against that problem.

Are you thinking, uh, when you talk about regional centers, are you thinking kind of Mediterranean, west Coast, us, Australia, one in Japan? How do you think about that problem? Because. [00:18:00] Once you get a a site established, it does seem like because of the, how fast you can move these things around that it’ll become a pretty good job center for a lot of people.

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: Yeah. There’s a long-term maintenance, you know, crew that needs to be developed while we build these. Um, yeah, I think, I think, you know, it’s been a moving target of what’s really gonna develop in offshore wind. It’s like Lucy and Charlie Brown with football. I think we, we constantly try to, you know, get lined up to, to kick football and then it falls.

It’s more of the developers I, I feel for on that ’cause they’re these investing tremendous amount of money for these, these development sites. Um, so, you know, we are open to any, you know, we’ve been, we’ve looked at, um, some developers are looking at steel production and concrete production, you know, two different reports servicing.

An array and we’re really flexible. It doesn’t, doesn’t matter. When we first started on that Hawaii project, we were gonna do floating pla, you know, floating, um, [00:19:00] barges to slipform. And, and we talked about that with Arab. Some still this floating dock idea and, and submerging that dock. And it’s just a matter of finding the right, uh, a large enough, um, dock for that type of, so then you’re not even using the land base port.

You’re learn, you’re using kind of just to. Maybe a 400 foot frontage on the, on the, along the port.

Allen Hall: Well, that’s amazingly small, right? Because if you look at some of these ports right now that are doing, uh, fixed bottom offshore, they’re massive, they’re huge sites. You’re talking about something roughly a 10th of the scale to get the same end result, which is turbines in the water

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: for our part of it.

I mean, we still, you still have the components and, and those are, that’s a, it’s another logistical challenge, and so I understand why the ports are. Looking at a lot more lay down space and things, but you know, maybe at a certain point these components are so large that they just stay on a vessel and they, and we, we take them off of a vessel directly and load them in.

Allen Hall: Yeah, I think that’s one of the, the considerations [00:20:00] is do you really tie it to land in, in terms of needing a, a massive amount of space, acres of space, thousands of square meters of space. Do you need that or is this, or can you do it much more efficiently because that overhead adds up over time. Not only are you trying to save on, on the ships and the, especially the dedicated ships, you’re also looking at smaller footprints on shore and doing it a lot more economically.

What does that future look like now, because it does seem like we’re at a precipice where floating wind is no longer just being discussed. In theory, it’s, it’s going to be implemented. What are those next steps here for Eco TLP?

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: So next week we’re headed to Tokyo, to Japan for the wind. Expo and, um, Eric is also presenting at the Asia Wind Offshore Show.

Um, I think we’re, you know, we’re, we’re good to learn. I mean, there’s just so much to learn about each culture, and I think this is something that, you know, Gordon and I’ve talked about in terms of these international [00:21:00] projects, you’ve, you’ve gotta understand your culture that you’re moving into and you’ve gotta understand how to mediate across those different companies that come in.

Our company has seven different. Countries represented in our team. So right now, so, so we’re, we’re a US company, but we’re barely, you know, we’re just kind of by name, but I think most of our team members are, are not in the us and, and that’s international collaboration is something, um, I, I really, I really loved working on it.

And I think, so when we go to Japan next week, it’s really mainly just to learn. You know, we don’t. We have a lot to learn about Japan, and, and that’s what’s fun about each of these, these regions.

Gordon Jackson: And that’s where we can help because, uh, you know, we’ve got a presence in Japan. We’ve been doing offshore wind in Japan, so we’re there, we’re there to help eight to eco TLP with our, those little contacts and uh, you know, h do business, uh, uh, in Japan and things like that.

So, you know, [00:22:00] we have a big international network, so you know, it can help. Some, uh, in some areas, you know, open some doors and, uh, forge some, uh, some friendships between, uh, count companies.

Allen Hall: Courtney did a big project out in Perth, Australia, which is a difficult place, right. Australia is a very difficult place to manufacture things.

What are some of the lessons learned and and what was that process like?

Gordon Jackson: So he had a, a client, uh, a very small client who was prepared to. Seed responsibility for delivering his project to a, to a team, an alliance team. Uh, and he just, um, interviewed a number of teams and, uh, we were lucky enough to be selected, uh, as the team to deliver their project.

There was no tendering, uh, it was just done on, you know, how the, how the client felt about the, the individuals that he met. Um, and that, that was [00:23:00] very new to me. Um, and, um, the whole project was delivered, uh, by companies from the uk, from from Australia, from Singapore, uh, from be Netherlands, you know, the Marine, uh, the marine, uh, vessels.

You know, a lot of ’em are coming from, uh, from, uh, Northern Europe, uh, even though you’re in Australia. Um, and, um, you know, every company wants to do things differently and they all want to look after their interests, but the big thing about this alliance project was that, uh, you were, you were focused on one particular project and we were, um, we were coached and, and facilitated, and trained to, um, to throw away our, you know, our company affiliations and work together.

And, uh, you know, to collaborate together. And, um, [00:24:00] you know, we’re all working towards the, the end goal of delivering a particular product. And I think that’s, I think it’s got a lot of, um, lot of potential to be used in the offshore wind sector. This, this was, uh, you know, uh, an oil platform that we were gonna build on the, uh, the northwest shelf of Australia, um, which happened to be built in concrete, um, because the client.

The client came to us with a, with a, a notion of, of doing something in concrete, um, which we, we took his idea, uh, decided we could do something a little bit cheaper and more straightforward and, um, you know, went on to deliver it. We were given the opportunity to deliver it. And, uh, yeah, I, it was my best project.

Uh, it was a tremendous experience for all the companies involved. And you know, everyone made money so everyone’s happy.

Allen Hall: That is difficult, right? You, you do see on these offshore projects, people coming from around the world to [00:25:00] work on this one big effort, a lot of money, and at times, thousands of people involved.

You see companies stu stumble there, uh, obviously because you’re trying to tie cultures, you’re trying to tie companies together, but at the end of the day, you have to get this project done. Are, are there some top level lessons learned from that of, of how to bridge those differences?

Gordon Jackson: Well, I did another project, uh, this was a, a steel project, um, where we had a, a US oil company.

Uh, and, um. The successful contractor was Hyundai in Korea. And they said to, said to me over the course of the project,

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: uh,

Gordon Jackson: we always lose money with, um, with American oil companies. You know, why, why are we doing business with them? Uh, and it, and it all came down to the, you know, the, the approach to the [00:26:00]contract.

You know, um, Hyundai used to. Working in a more collaborative way with our clients, whereas, you know, this project, you know, this is what the contract says, this is what you’ve taken on to do, you know, there’s no negotiation, you know, you’ll do it and that’s how much money you’re getting. And, uh, you know, um, but they find that very difficult.

And, uh, it was at the time when they were sort of opening up their business more internationally. Um, and I think it was a big learning experience for them. Um. So, yeah. Um, I think a lot of the offshore wind tried to follow the same path and, um, yeah, I think more collaborative working is to be encouraged for me.

Um, you know, more talking to each other and negotiating rather than, uh, you know, imposs.

Allen Hall: Where should developers go to find out more about Eco TLP? [00:27:00] Because you have a gravity based system. You got attention lake platform, there’s a, there’s a lot inside of the company. What’s the first stop? Should they visit your website?

Should they connect with you on LinkedIn? Where do they go?

Nicole Johnson-Murphy: The LinkedIn where website is great.

Allen Hall: So go visit Eco TLP. It’s E-C-O-T-L-P. Com, Nicole and Gordon, this has been a great discussion. I’ve learned a lot. It’s very exciting because I think you’re on the precipice of something great. So thank you for joining me today.

Gordon Jackson: Thank you. Thank you.

ECO TLP Brings Concrete Foundations to Floating Wind

Continue Reading

Renewable Energy

Offshore Turbine Prices Jump, Data Centers Squeeze US Grids

Published

on

Weather Guard Lightning Tech

Offshore Turbine Prices Jump, Data Centers Squeeze US Grids

Rystad reports offshore turbine prices have jumped 45% since 2020, plus data centers squeeze US grids, Fortescue chases real zero by 2030, and GE Vernova battles Vineyard Wind in court.

Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly newsletter on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on YouTubeLinkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast, brought to you by StrikeTape, protecting thousands of wind turbines from lightning damage worldwide. Visit striketape.com. And now, your hosts. 

Allen Hall 2025: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall, and I’m here with Rosemary Barnes, who’s been busy in Australia up in Sydney at a energy conference.

Rosemary, what happened this past week?

Rosemary Barnes: Oh, yeah. I’ve been up in Sydney for the Smart Energy Conference and Exhibition. It’s a big… I don’t know if it’s the biggest. I think they get about 12,000 people or something through the doors. So yeah, it’s, it’s one of the big, maybe the biggest, um, energy conference in Australia.

It’s really focused on distributed energy households. So in the past, it was, like, nearly all solar, um, like rooftop solar. There used to be lots of installers that were there and, yeah, there’s heaps of solar [00:01:00] panels around in the exhibition hall. And over the last few years it’s been a mix of batteries and solar, and then now this year it was basically 99% batteries, 1% EV chargers, and almost not a solar panel to be seen.

I didn’t actually spend that much time in the exhibition this year. I mostly was, um, attending sessions. Andrew Forrest from Fortescue headlined, and that was really good. I haven’t seen him speak live before. Y- you know, he, he told about all the, like, good plans that Fortescue’s doing to get to real zero by 2030.

So he’s on a real rampage at the moment to try and get rid of the diesel rebate that we pay at the moment. We pay diesel users a, a, yeah, a fuel, fuel rebate. It was just cool to hear about y- you know, all of Fortescue’s plans, why they’ve got this big green grid that they’re building out in the Pilbara.

Um, I really liked when he said, you know, it’s not, it’s not magic, it’s, um, it’s just, what did he say? Like, maths, physics, engineering, and [00:02:00]economics, and a bit of courageous leadership. That’s what you need to make a green, a green electricity grid. So I really like that the, you know, engineering was mentioned, was mentioned there.

I did actually get the chance to ask him a question, too. Wanted to know, um, you know, like, Fortescue is, is really one of the most interesting things about the company is that they are using brand-new technologies or even not quite there yet technologies. I asked, uh, Andrew Forrest, I asked him, you know, like, how you make these bold, bold decisions, does it ever, you know, worry you that it’s not gonna work out?

And I was assuming he would say, “It doesn’t worry me,” um, because, you know, he has that kind of brash, confident personality. So I, you know, my follow-up was, what, what steps do you take so that you aren’t worried by it? And he said it does worry him, and he s- stays awake every night worrying, worrying about if these technologies aren’t going to work.

And that, uh, basically they try and have a really, really solid plan B that isn’t a [00:03:00] brand-new technology. So, um, you can, you know, infer from that, that if the– I mean, first of all, he said, “We don’t invest in the technology until they have demons- demonstrated with a good prototype that it’s likely to work.”

Um, but I guess that, you know, assuming that they’ve ran into problems in the rollout of all of these Naberebo towers, that, um, they have a backup of some conventional towers.

Speaker 2: Yeah, uh, the, the Fortescue people, when we talked to them about, pfoof, probably six months ago, maybe a little bit longer, we were helping to build a farm out in Western Australia.

It was a small team, much smaller than anything you would see in the US, and it does sort of align with the Australian approach to it, is that you don’t need a massive team of people to do these projects. You just need to know what you’re doing, and that was really remarkable. So e- I’m not surprised that Fortescue is continuing on in, in different aspects.

It does seem like they’re pretty bold about their engineering approach and taking on massive projects that otherwise wouldn’t be [00:04:00] done and-

Rosemary Barnes: It, it’s also really cool to hear, uh, Andrew Forrest or anyone from Fortescue talk because they’re talking about things that they’ve done. You know, like we have so much when you’re at these, uh, events and, you know, everyone’s doing these inspiring talks, it’s always about, “Oh, this is the possibility for the future.”

But Fortescue has actually, has actually done it. Yeah, there was a lot of, like, actual progress discussed at this conference. It wasn’t, “This is what we could do if we all joined hands and sang Kumbaya.” It wasn’t like that, you know? It’s like, this is what’s happening when the engineering is there, the economics are there, and the government isn’t standing in the way.

Um, y- you know, you can make a lot of, a lot of progress. And you know what? Like now we’ve got so much distributed energy in Australia. It’s the rooftop solar that we’ve been building for, you know, 20 years by now. Um, and it’s the, the batteries especially. Like it is a- starting to have a noticeable impact on electricity prices, and co- coal and gas are both reducing in the grid.

I think the last quarter of gas use in Australia was the lowest it’s [00:05:00] been since 1999. Like, um, yeah, so it’s, yeah, it’s, it, it’s dropping, you know? And so I think that that’s a really unique story for Australia is that households can actually really change the dial.

Speaker 2: Well, can I ask you about that? Because the data center issue is popping up again in the United States, and one of the things about data centers is they feel like you, you’re gonna need a good amount of batteries to support if the grid hops on or turns off, that they wanna be able to support this data center, so having a buffer and batteries would make a lot of sense.

However, there’s not a lot of battery storage in the US at the minute versus a place like Australia where there’s a lot of it. Doesn’t it make a lot of sense to start putting data centers in Australia? I still don’t understand Why that hasn’t been done? Because electricity prices are cheaper, the land is available, the infrastructure’s there.

It’s going [00:06:00] to be, you would think, easier to build in Australia than it would be in the United States. What’s the dilemma there?

Rosemary Barnes: I think certainly there are plenty of plans to build big data centers in Australia. Um, and now I’m gonna go, like, move a little bit outside my expertise, but I think that one of the issues is that at the moment, a lot of the data centers need to be quite close to where the work is happening.

So I mean, you’re always gonna need data centers close to any big city where people are, are using the internet. Um, but aside from that, you know, like, the tech sector in the US is much bigger, so the people actually developing, um, you know, training, um, uh, yeah, training AI models, um, are more likely to be sitting in the US and, you know, need a large amount…

Not all of their compute needs to happen nearby, but a fair chunk of it. And so I think that that is one reason why so far that’s where it is. Um, but it also doesn’t mean… I mean, there’s [00:07:00] plenty of smart, um smart computer types in Australia as well as the US, so you could start to see more companies moving, um, moving to where electricity is cheap.

I think that– And grid connections are fast.

Speaker 2: The one thing you notice about using any of the AI platforms today is, like, there’s a built-in delay. Unlike when you’re on Amazon or any other s- active site, when you click, you want something to happen immediately. With AI, they, they build in a little wait process, which means you can have a data center anywhere, because you’re not expecting an instantaneous response from it.

That means, in a sense, they’re setting it up to be a global industry. There is more of a delay now than there was a month ago. And I assume that has to do with usage, and they’re trying to manage all the data usage, right? So electricity is one of the limitations in the United States. That’s evident right now.

The amount of data centers is a problem, so they’re trying to spread out the usage, and they are definitely… At least Anthropic is slowing it down. [00:08:00] I’d imagine all the other ones are doing the same thing. So it does open up the world to cheaper electricity.

Rosemary Barnes: There’s heaps of really interesting work happening in trying to get, um, AI and data centers to be better grid citizens, not probably primarily out of the goodness of their heart, but because of two things.

One, grid connections are really slow, and so there’s a strong incentive that you can save, in some places, years off your development time if you can just bring in enough batteries, enough smart tech to make sure that you’re never going to, um, you know, add to peak, peak load in the grid, then you can- You know, change how things go.

It’s also a matter of, like, social license as well, because at the moment it’s probably not too bad. People don’t realize too much. But if people’s electricity prices start going up because, you know, grid had to be built out because of da- data centers, they’re gonna start getting pissed as soon as they realize what that is.

So I think [00:09:00] that, um, you know, these big companies, what do they call them? Hyperscalers. I think that they’re aware that that is gonna come and that that is a really strong incentive to do the right thing before they are made to do the right thing. Because, you know, like, if people got really upset then, um, you could easily have the rug pulled out from underneath a project that you thought was all set to go ahead, you know, could very easily be delayed indefinitely.

I mean, we’ve definitely seen in the US that-

Speaker 2: Right. In 30 states in the US have already put prohibitions or limitations on data centers. That means there’s only 20 states left. Alaska is probably not a prime choice, Hawaii is not either, so you even have fewer. It does seem odd that when these limitations pop up that the discussion doesn’t move to other countries.

Australia being an easy one, because electricity there is practically free. It seems like a smart move, but they haven’t made it yet.

Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I mean, it’s not, it’s not [00:10:00] practically free in Australia yet, but I think that the, um, horizon, um, like the, you know, the outlook is it’s, it’s getting cheap. We… And we are finally seeing wholesale prices actually start to come down.

But there’s this really awkward middle period though, you know, like, because, um, at the moment we’ve still got all of the… nearly all of the coal generation there, nearly all of the gas generation is there, and you need to have it there until you build out the other stuff. But it’s like prices drop and drop and drop when you’ve got this oversupply problem.

But you’re gonna have the oversupply problem until you’ve got enough to start turning off, you know, gigawatt, two gigawatt, um, thermal generators. So it is a really weird middle, um, mid- mid-transition, I think is the term for it. You need planning. You know, you need… You actually do need… At some point you need a plan, and you need to execute it and expect that, like, every step you take is not gonna be better.

Y- you know, like [00:11:00] some steps you’re gonna take that are gonna make it, um, economically worse for the short term. But, you know, like, if you’ve got a mountain range in between you and your destination, then yeah, like it’s, it’s really hard going for a while. But you’ve gotta climb that mountain if you wanna get to the other side and, um, you, and you, you can’t do that without a plan.

Speaker 2: Well, what other place on the planet has or will have shortly unused gigawatts of old generation? I don’t think I know of one. It, it’s gonna be Australia So th-those gigawatt plants that were thermal plants that won’t be needed ’cause the price of electricity is so low, it does seem like a smart person would put a data center right next door to it.

Rosemary Barnes: No, but we wanna turn ’em off. I

Speaker 2: don’t think you’re gonna be able to, Rosemary. I’m just saying, the world needs, uh, AI and it’s coming.

Rosemary Barnes: We’ll see. I think that, um, you know, I did get quite energized by the event, the, um, SSE event that I was at this week because it’s like there are a few things that [00:12:00] Australia, um, you know, really has, like, an opportunity to be world leaders in.

And when you get to be the leader, then it means that the technologies that you invent to solve the problems that, you know, the early adopters have, you have the headstart on that. And, you know, as other countries follow in your footsteps, you have the opportunity to lead, lead those technologies.

Speaker 2: As wind energy professionals, staying informed is crucial, and let’s face it, difficult.

That’s why “The Uptime Podcast” recommends PES Wind Magazine. PES Wind offers a diverse range of in-depth articles and expert insights that dive into the most pressing issues facing our energy future. Whether you’re an industry veteran or new to wind, PES Wind has the high-quality content you need. Don’t miss out.

Visit peswind.com today. So if you want to build an offshore wind farm in Europe right now, you had better be ready to pay. A new analysis from Rystad Energy shows that the turbine selling prices have jumped between 40% and 45% [00:13:00] since 2020. And here’s the thing, manufacturing costs only went up about 20% to 25% over the same period.

The difference is pure pricing power. And with GE Vernova out of the new offshore order book and only Siemens Gamesa and Vestas left to supply Western markets, developers are facing a seller’s market in the most critical of components. Nacelles and blades are where the bottleneck hits hardest, and there is no quick fix in sight.

So Rosemary, Siemens Gamesa and Vestas are leveraging the, the lack of com- competition, particularly from China at the moment, to gather market share and to raise prices, which I think everybody would agree if you’re on the engineering side of wind turbines, the prices needed to come up because there’s some work that needs to be done, and the engineering side has been pretty thin.

To make these turbines more resilient, [00:14:00] you’re gonna need more engineering, it can be a little bit more on the manufacturing side. That takes money So prices had to come up

Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I mean, I, I, I agree. It’s definitely n- not the case that everyone would agree. Anybody who has a spreadsheet and they’re trying to get the number, number right so that they can develop a new project is gonna say that it’s a bad thing, and it will also probably slow down development a little bit.

Although, I guess if there was a supply constraint, then that was already a natural, um, handbrake, so maybe there’s no difference. But I do think that, um, you know, and I’ve said it a lot of times, like, you know, wind power reduced, it had a really steep cost reduction curve through the 20-teens, and I think that it was just artificial.

You know, like it was driven by competition rather than true cost reductions in the technology. I think we undershot the price level that it needed to go for, and there just wasn’t enough money to do proper engineering, and, you know, w- we see that. Y- you know, you and I work in O&M, and we deal ev- every day with, with things where it’s like how did, [00:15:00] uh, how, how did they think that this technology was ready when they went and sold thousands of turbines with it?

And I know that the answer is not that, um, engineers were lazy or stupid or just didn’t s- see the problems coming up. It was just too, too fast a pace of technology, um, rollout, like new technologies combined with just relentless focus on, on cost. You know, like all of my projects, it’s just like you just have to reduce cost and reduce it and reduce it and reduce it and, you know, to the point where you’re making changes that you don’t have time to fully check.

Um, and, you know, then you have quality problems in the field.

Speaker 2: What’s the effect of an Indian manufacturing company in Europe on the offshore marketplace? If like an Adani or one of the other, Suzlon, one of the, one of the big manufacturers in India decides to make offshore wind turbines at scale, [00:16:00] wouldn’t that dramatically shift the marketplace in Europe?

Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I guess if you’ve got a new player, it’s always gonna shift things a bit. I don’t think it matters specifically that it’s Indian. Um, but a new player is gonna wanna be making sales and probably, you know, setting their price at the point that, that they need to, to, um, get those sales, maybe not initially worried so much about profits.

If we were talking about Chinese manufacturers in Europe, and we have in the past, if we’re talking about that, then I think that that is a bit more relevant which, which country it is because China, you know, has just like essentially infinite money to put behind it and can keep on going long enough. You know, like they don’t need to make a, a profit every single year or every single five-year period even.

They can think longer term. I, I, as far as I know, India is not quite the same as that, so I would expect it to be a bit more short-lived, but that’s always the risk that, you know, someone comes in and [00:17:00] undercuts, um, undercuts for long enough that it- causes the local local, uh, manufacturers to not be able to compete and shut down

Speaker 2: Well, just knowing some of the operators that were doing offshore wind projects and their desire to bring in a alternative to keep prices to the level that they could accept, with Mingyang being shut out at the minute, they’re gonna have to look somewhere else.

So I think the only place they can find an alternative lower price competitor is gonna be India. Although the turbines aren’t at scale yet, I, I think you’ll see somebody make noise about it in the next six months on the operations side.

Rosemary Barnes: I think the European manufacturer is a probably better place to just scale up.

Speaker 2: Well, let’s talk about GE Vernova for a minute, because the legal fight over America’s first large off-scale wind farm just got more complicated because Vineyard Wind reached commercial operations on April 24th, about a week or [00:18:00] two ago, and activated its purchase power agreement. Well, uh, now GE Vernova is using those very milestones against Vineyard Wind in court.

GE Vernova filed an emergency motion arguing that the activation of those contracts undermines Vineyard Wind’s claims of irreparable harm. But Vineyard Wind’s attorney says the project is generating at less than half of its 806 megawatts capacity, and GE Vernova’s work is still needed to get it there.

The next court hearing is set for this week. This little battle continues, and it’s– Although it seems fairly quiet, you don’t hear a lot of news reports about it in, uh, particularly the mainstream press, not too much about it, it– this has huge ramifications because as we talked about offshore wind over in Europe, if, if GE is truly getting out, and particularly if they’re in a fight with one of their largest purchasers of turbines, it’s gonna [00:19:00] disincentivize Europeans from even considering GE.

In my opinion, I don’t know how you would think that GE would be one of the options. Although you would like to have three competitors bidding on every project in Europe, I think GE’s taken itself out of the marketplace because of this, this lawsuit.

Rosemary Barnes: Mm. You know what it reminds me of? It, um, it reminds me of the Justin Baldoni versus Blake Lively lawsuit that’s ongoing at the moment, where it’s just, like, mutually assured destruction.

Speaker 2: But at least they settled, Rosemary. They’re, they’re not fighting anymore.

Rosemary Barnes: They settled, but they didn’t settle all aspects of it.

Speaker 2: The only reason I know about that is because you keep mentioning it. So when I see it pop up, I would normally just let it go. But I figured Rosemary’s focused on this, I should probably at least dabble in it briefly.

That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you Reach out to us [00:20:00] on LinkedIn, and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. And if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review.

It helps other wind energy professionals follow the show. For Rosie, I’m Allen Hall, and we’ll see you next week on the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast.

Offshore Turbine Prices Jump, Data Centers Squeeze US Grids

Continue Reading

Renewable Energy

Eric Trump as U.S. Presidential Candidate

Published

on

The reader who sent me this writes, “Son of Satan.”

Yes. I think of him as Donald Trump, but without the intelligence, honesty, and charm.

Eric Trump as a U.S. Presidential Candidate

Continue Reading

Renewable Energy

How Not to Provide Valuable Information

Published

on

At left is a graph of the expected temperatures here at 2GreenEnergy headquarters here on the central coast of California.

As you can see, the temperature in Fahrenheit is extremely unlikely to exceed 300 degrees, nor fall below zero.  We won’t be baking turkeys in our backyards, nor will we be making ice.

As a guy who presented numeric data to clients all over the world for three decades, I always tried to make my graphics carry more informational content.

How Not to Provide Valuable Information

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com