Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
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This week
Offshore wind off track
EMPIRE WIND 2: Energy majors BP and Equinor have terminated their power agreement with the state of New York to build a 1.26 gigawatt offshore wind farm, according to Bloomberg. The deal for the 147 turbine wind farm, 15 miles south of New York’s Long Island was signed in 2022, for a strike price of $107.50 per megawatt-hour, the Financial Times noted.
WIND WOES: BP and Equinor pointed to the “unforeseeable economic forces” – including inflation stemming from the war in Ukraine and Covid-19, supply chain bottlenecks and interest rate increases, along with permitting delays – which affected the “financial attractiveness” of the project, the FT added. Offshore wind developers have cancelled contracts to sell power in Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey, as well as threatening to cancel agreements in other states, as project costs rise, Reuters reported.
VINEYARD WIND: Meanwhile, the first turbine in the Vineyard offshore wind development began generating power this week, delivering around 5 megawatts of power to the New England grid, the Guardian reported. Vineyard Wind is the first US large-scale offshore wind project, and is expected to have 62 turbines in total when complete.
UK’s second-warmest year
SECOND WARMEST: Data from the Met Office shows that 2023 was the UK’s second-warmest year of record, and the warmest year on record for Wales and Northern Ireland, BBC News reported. The average absolute temperature for last year was 9.97C, only slightly lower than the 10.02C recorded in 2022 – the warmest year on record for the UK – according to the Guardian.
TOP 10: The UK’s 10 warmest years have all occurred since 2003, the Guardian noted, with Met Office scientists emphasising that “such a warm year would have occurred only once in 500 years without human-caused global heating”. The news comes as heavy flooding driven by Storm Henk has hit the UK, with more than 550 flood warnings and alerts in place in England and Wales and hundreds of homes flooded, the Guardian reported.
REPEAT RECORDS: While 2023 is expected to be announced as the warmest on record in the coming weeks, the contributing factors that made it so warm will likely “push the dial even further in 2024”, New Scientist reported. The El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean is expected to reach its full strength – on top of warming driven by greenhouse gases – next year, it noted.
Around the world
- GERMAN EMISSIONS: Germany’s carbon dioxide emissions fell to their lowest level since the 1950s in 2023, due to less coal-fired power and a reduced output by energy-intensive industries, reported Reuters, but the decline is “unsustainable without climate policy changes”.
- OVERTAKING TESLA: Chinese firm BYD has knocked Elon Musk’s company “off the top spot” to become the world’s best-selling electric vehicle manufacturer for the first time, according to the Financial Times.
- COP29 PRESIDENT: Azerbaijan has appointed environmental minister Mukhtar Babayez as president of the COP29 climate talks, reported Climate Home News. Babayez is the former head of the country’s state-owned oil and gas company Socar.
- LOW-CARBON HYDROGEN: The US government has unveiled a new framework to support the production of low-carbon hydrogen, offering tax credits based on the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from the power source used in hydrogen production, according to Reuters.
- ‘POSTCODE LOTTERY’: Analysis of the 20 costliest climate disasters of 2023 has shown that “countries less able to rebuild or who have contributed least to climate crisis suffer worst”, reported the Guardian.
- PIPELINE PRACTICES: French energy giant TotalEnergies has launched a review of its land acquisition practices for the controversial $10bn East African crude oil pipeline in Uganda and Tanzania, Agence France-Presse reported.
324tn yuan
China will need to spend around 324tn yuan ($45.5tn), roughly 2.7 times its GDP in 2022, to realise its climate targets of peaking CO2 emissions before 2030 and going carbon neutral before 2060, reported China Daily.
Latest climate research
- Diversifying agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa towards more micronutrient-rich foods is “necessary” to provide an adequate nutrient supply under increasing climate risks and population growth, according to a new study published in Nature Food.
- Using a large-scale experiment on Facebook, a new paper in Climatic Change found “little to no support” for the fear that attention on solar radiation management or carbon dioxide removal “might crowd out the desire to cut emissions”.
- The genes of an Antarctic octopus provide “empirical evidence” that the West Antarctic ice sheet previously “collapsed when the global mean temperature was similar to that of today”, warned a new study in Science, suggesting “the tipping point of future WAIS collapse is close”.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Last year, the UK’s electricity from fossil fuels dropped to its lowest level since 1957, new analysis from Carbon Brief reveals. The amount of electricity from fossil fuels fell 22% year-on-year in 2023, to 104 terawatt hours (TWh), its lowest level in 66 years. Back then, Harold Macmillan was the UK prime minister and the Beatles’ John Lennon and Paul McCartney had just met for the first time. The chart above shows the fall of fossil fuels in the electricity mix, to meet just 33% of electricity needs in 2023, while renewable energy generation continues to surge.
Spotlight
Carbon Brief’s top five articles of 2023
Carbon Brief takes a look at its top five most-read stories published in 2023.
Factcheck: 21 misleading myths about electric vehicles
Carbon Brief’s most-read new article of 2023 was a factcheck by deputy editor Dr Simon Evans of 21 of the most common misleading myths about electric vehicles (EVs). The article explored claims often seen in the press, such as EVs having to travel more than 50,000 miles for their emissions to break even with a conventional car, EVs having little or no CO2 advantage over a car someone already drives, and sales of EVs appearing to be slowing.
As Evans explained, the sales of EVs have continued to surge in the UK and globally, as the vehicles become cheaper, charging infrastructure more widespread and bans on combustion engines loom closer. Despite this growth, EVs are still subject to “relentless hostile reporting across mainstream media in many major economies, including the UK”, Evans noted.
COP28: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Dubai
At COP28 in Dubai, nearly every country in the world agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels” within the global stocktake – the first time fossil fuels have been explicitly mentioned in the 28 years of international climate negotiations.
Ten of Carbon Brief’s journalists attended the two-week event and pulled together this mammoth summary – covering everything from the significant loss-and-damage fund on the first day to the gritty negotiations around Article 6 and a just transition.
Analysis: Which countries have sent the most delegates to COP28?
More than 97,000 badges were issued for COP28 in Dubai, almost twice the number of participants that travelled to Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt in 2022. In Carbon Brief’s third most-read article of 2023, senior science editor Robert McSweeney detailed who registered for COP28, including 24,488 delegates representing parties, 14,338 observers from NGOs and 3,972 media delegates.
Analysis: China’s emissions set to fall in 2024 after record growth in clean energy
China’s carbon dioxide emissions are set to fall in 2024, according to analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst and co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Myllyvirta explained how China’s emissions “could now be facing structural decline due to record growth in the installation of new low-carbon energy sources”. This came despite CO2 emissions rising 4.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023 as they continued to rebound following China’s “zero-Covid” period.
Analysis: How low-sulphur shipping rules are affecting global warming
Rounding out the list of Carbon Brief’s top five most-read articles of 2023, is an analysis of how new international rules to reduce air pollution from shipping could affect the climate. The article – by Dr Zeke Hausfather, climate science contributor for Carbon Brief, and Prof Piers Forster, professor of climate physics at the University of Leeds – found that the new regulations, imposed in 2020, will likely add 0.05C to global temperatures by 2050.
Watch, read, listen
DOCUMENTING DROUGHT: A Guardian article explored the images Maasai photographers Claire Metito and Irene Naneu have been using to chronicle the everyday experiences of two elderly women in Esiteti in southern Kenya, where a prolonged drought has made life more challenging for women in pastoralist communities.
WITNESSING A WARMING WORLD: BBC’s Future Planet’s team of climate reporters have written from across five continents to share their thoughts on what they have witnessed as the world warmed in 2023.
PRESCIENT POSTERS: An article in the New York Times explored some of the most arresting images on display at a new exhibition at Poster House in Manhattan that highlights the differing approaches – “bright, witty, sombre, blunt, even sexy” – the environmental movement has taken in an effort to “save the world”.
Coming up
- 4-5 January: Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference 2024, Miami, Florida
- 10 January: Winter school on “Dealing Professionally with Climate Change Issues”, online event
- 17 January: Climate change adaptation: evaluating Scottish Marine Protected Area resilience, webinar
Pick of the jobs
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, research officer | Salary: £40,229-£48,456. Location: London, UK
- European Geosciences Union, media and communications officer | Salary: €53,000-€58,000. Location: Munich, Germany
- Rewilding Britain, chair and trustees | Salary: unknown. Location: UK
- ODI, communications collaborators | Salary: unknown. Location: unknown
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org
The post DeBriefed 5 January 2024: US offshore wind; UK’s second warmest year; Carbon Brief’s top articles of 2023 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
COP31 has finally kicked off in the sunny seaside resort of Antalya – at least for those lucky enough to have made it through the long queues snaking around the sprawling expo centre where the UN climate conference is taking place.
The joint COP presidents, Türkiye’s Murat Kurum and Australia’s Chris Bowen, have presented their priorities to fellow diplomats – including a new goal on electrification, the establishment of a just transition mechanism and better access to climate finance – before the negotiations begin in earnest.
Kurum announced that issues around the summit’s agenda had been resolved over the weekend. African countries had pushed for additional items on adaptation finance and trade, while Nepal wanted formal discussions on mountain issues in the wake of the devastating flooding disaster that struck the country.
Agreement was reached to drop the African request after late-night talks, with a view to continuing discussions on finance elsewhere such as in a dedicated work programme. Mountains and climate change will become a regular agenda item in the UN climate process with fresh dialogues planned on the topic.
COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
In his speech to the opening plenary, Australia’s environment minister Chris Bowen, who will preside over the negotiations in Antalya, outlined the COP co-presidents’ expectations for the cover decision that will offer a summary of the talks’ main achievements.
“There will be no surprises. This is not about duplicating negotiations. It will not be a lengthy political declaration, but a focused, practical, concrete response to the challenges and opportunities before us,” Bowen said.
It will be “a decision that reflects the urgency of the climate challenge and the enormous opportunities created by the global transition. One that gives confidence to governments, investors, businesses, communities that the world is moving faster and working together,” he added.
UN: El Niño unleashing heat from hottest oceans ever measured
As diplomats gather in Antalya, a new sobering update on the state of the Earth’s climate from the UN’s weather agency should focus minds.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the world’s oceans now hold more heat than ever measured. A rapidly strengthening El Niño is releasing some of that heat into the atmosphere, pushing temperatures higher on a planet already baked by human-caused climate change.
“El Niño and indeed the state of the global climate in 2026 gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts,” said the WMO’s Secretary General Celeste Saulo. “El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release.”
The UN agency says 2026 is on track to be one of the four warmest years on record globally. That would make 2023 to 2026 the four hottest years in 177 years of observations. The global average temperature from January to September was 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, just below 2024’s record of 1.55°C. The agency expects the final figure for the year to be higher as one of the strongest El Niños on record takes hold.
The current El Niño – a naturally occurring climate pattern – is expected to peak in December and continue until at least February 2027. As a result, the WMO expects global average temperatures to remain “exceptionally” high through late 2026 and into early 2027.
-
National climate plans now promise half the emission cuts expected by UN
The US exit from the Paris Agreement and weak new pledges leave 2035 emissions just 6% below 2019 levels, against 12% projected last year -
Tensions set to flare over trade at COP31 as China makes it a priority
After difficult talks in Belém last year, trade is likely to remain a sticking point at COP31 despite Brazil’s efforts to contain the issue to a series of dialogues
Bill Hare, CEO of the global science and policy institute Climate Analytics, said that while El Niño will command the headlines, “no one should be in any doubt that the bigger villain is man-made climate change”.
According to the WMO, El Niño typically adds around 0.1–0.2°C to annual global average temperatures. That is a fraction of the warming of more than 1.4°C recorded last year, which is primarily caused by greenhouse gas emissions mainly from burning fossil fuels.
UN boss António Guterres said a “supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change”.
“Leaders must get serious by cutting emissions faster, accelerating a just transition from fossil fuels and delivering the finance and protection vulnerable countries need, “ he added.
At the COP31 opening ceremony, a Turkish promotional video struck a suitably apocalyptic note, implying that while nature and life on the planet will continue, humanity may not be a part of it unless countries choose to step up action to curb global warming.
IPCC chief urges governments to decide on report timeline
The chair of the world’s top climate science body has urged governments to take a long-delayed decision on when its next reports should be published so that they can steer climate action.
“Climate action without climate science is rather like a ship without a rudder,” said Jim Skea, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
He told the opening session of COP31 that the IPCC “faces operational challenges and reputational risks from the current impasse on the timeline for our three working group reports”.
Since 2024, governments have been unable to agree on whether the AR7 set of reports should be published before or after the next Global Stocktake (GST) of national climate plans in late 2028.
If the flagship reports are published before, they can feed into the agreed response to the second GST. At COP28, the first GST outcome included the landmark commitment to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.
Europe, small islands and the least developed countries, plus many Latin American and developed nations, want the IPCC to meet the deadline to inform the second GST.
But around a dozen developing countries plus Russia – led by India and Saudi Arabia – have argued that the reports should come later in order to allow for greater research input from the Global South.
After talks failed and were suspended last month, governments and IPCC scientists will try again to resolve the issue in virtual talks beginning on December 1.
Despite this disagreement among governments, Skea said the IPCC’s “scientific engine room is humming with activity” as scientists continue their work. But, as they are unpaid for their IPCC work, they are finding it increasingly difficult to find time for it alongside their “busy professional and personal lives”.
“In my early days in IPCC, we could plan our meetings literally years ahead. Now our authors don’t know what is expected of them in the early months of 2027,” he lamented.
The post COP31 Bulletin Day 1: Australia says cover decision won’t bring “surprises” appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP31 Bulletin Day 1: Australia says cover decision won’t bring “surprises”
Climate Change
FLIP OFF WOODSIDE TO SAVE SCOTT REEF: Greenpeace, Michael Caton, Thinkerbell mobilise Australia to challenge gas project at Scott Reef
6 November 2026
Greenpeace Australia Pacific has joined forces with Thinkerbell and iconic Australian actor Michael Caton on a major public movement and behaviour change initiative to save Scott Reef, calling on Australians to “flip off” gas corporation Woodside. The company plans to drill for gas at Australia’s largest oceanic reef, home to vulnerable green sea turtles, endangered pygmy blue whales, and thousands of marine species, off the coast of Western Australia.
WATCH THE FULL VIDEO HERE
At the heart of the collaboration is somebody who knows a thing or two about fighting off corporations to protect a home: Michael Caton. Set in a courtroom, Caton gives his voice to a voiceless inhabitant, a g