Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
China’s new climate pledge
GUTERRES DEMANDS: UN secretary general António Guterres hosted a special climate action summit in New York on Wednesday, the Associated Press reported, alongside the closing day of the UN general assembly. It added that at the “marathon session”, where 121 world leaders were scheduled to speak, Guterres said: “The science demands action. The law commands it. The economics compel it. And people are calling for it.”
CHINA CUTS: First billing went to President Xi Jinping, who unexpectedly appeared via video to announce a target of cutting emissions – from all greenhouse gases and across China’s entire economy – to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, according to Bloomberg. This is a significant moment for global climate efforts, noted BBC News, as it is the first time that China has pledged to reduce its emissions in absolute terms.
CAUTIOUS RESPONSE: However, the pledge fell short of the “at least 30%” cut observers had said was needed, BBC News added. Carbon Brief has published a detailed Q&A on China’s new climate pledge and will host a free webinar on the topic. Sign up for free.
PLEDGE CONFUSION: The Guardian said “120 countries and the EU announced new goals” at the summit. However, Carbon Brief analysis of the speeches and official submissions found that only 11 countries offered new targets. Following the summit, countries representing half of global emissions have now announced or submitted their 2035 climate pledges, according to analysis just published by Carbon Brief.
Trump’s new climate sledge
‘CLIMATE CON’: The day before the Guterres summit, Donald Trump had used a nearly hour-long speech to the UN general assembly to deliver what the Bloomberg Green newsletter called a “blizzard” of “climate misinformation”. He attracted blanket coverage – and multiple factchecks – for false claims including that climate change was the “greatest con job ever” and that warming predictions were “wrong”.
FACTCHECK: Contrary to Trump’s claims, human-induced warming is an “established fact”, according to the IPCC, as is an increase in the strength and frequency of extreme weather events. Regarding climate models, Carbon Brief climate science contributor Dr Zeke Hausfather noted on Bluesky that projections of warming have been “pretty spot on”.
Around the world
- RENEWABLE RECORD: Global investment in renewable energy grew 10% year-on-year to a record $386bn in the first half of 2025, the Guardian said.
- CARBON CLUB: COP30 host Brazil is “trying to build a coalition of countries, including the EU and China, to unify carbon markets”, Bloomberg reported.
- FOSSILS OUT?: Colombia will host the first-ever international conference on phasing out fossil fuels in 2026, according to Climate Home News. Meanwhile, E&E News covered the latest UN “production gap” report saying, despite a COP28 pledge to transition away from fossil fuels, “many are planning for even more production”.
- SUPER TYPHOON: Ragasa, a category 5 “super typhoon” and the world’s most powerful tropical cyclone this year, killed 17 people in Taiwan, BBC News said. The storm, which was “intensified” by climate change according to the Hong Kong Free Press, caused nearly two million residents to be evacuated in China, added Xinhua,
- DEFORESTATION DELAY: The EU has delayed the start of its anti-deforestation law “by another year”, Reuters said, blaming “IT system concerns”.
- AIRPORT APPROVAL: The UK government approved a second runway at London’s Gatwick airport, said BBC News. The Sunday Times reported that it was also “poised to soften” its ban on new drilling in the North Sea.
62,700
The number of deaths in Europe linked to heat-related causes in 2024, the continent’s hottest year on record, according to new research covered by Reuters.
Latest climate research
- Extreme and “unprecedented” global water-scarcity events – or “day-zero droughts” – could happen in the 2020s and 2030s | Nature Communications
- The drying of the Ganga river, of great economic and cultural importance to millions of people in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, is “unprecedented in the last 1,300 years” | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- The likelihood of “severe bushfires danger” in Australia driven by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has increased by 16-32% due to climate change | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
China’s new climate pledge, outlined by President Xi Jinping, includes a target to reduce “economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions” to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035. But, as Carbon Brief explained in a detailed Q&A, this falls short of what would have been needed to contribute to limiting warming to 1.5C, according to experts.
Spotlight
Can COP30 respond to the 1.5C challenge?
With hopes fading of keeping global warming below 1.5C, despite new pledges at a UN summit in New York, this spotlight looks at the road to COP30 in Brazil and how the climate talks might respond.
After 2024 marked the hottest year on record and the first above 1.5C, 2025 was supposed to offer a chance to “course correct” through new, more ambitious national climate plans.
Instead, many countries have missed repeated deadlines for updated “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, setting out their plans to 2035.
Despite some new pledges in New York this week – including from China – collective efforts still “fall short” of limiting warming to the Paris goals of “well-below” 2C while “pursuing efforts” towards 1.5C.
Drumbeat of ‘disappointment’
This message is likely to be reinforced by a UN “synthesis report”, compiling the impact of new NDCs and due to be published on 24 October.
It will likely be reiterated in early November by the UN’s annual “emissions gap” report. Last year’s report had called for a “quantum leap” in ambition, which has yet to materialise.
This is all despite an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice in July, which said that 1.5C should be considered the “primary temperature goal” of global climate efforts – and that countries should make “adequate contributions” towards meeting it.
Meanwhile, amid oil and gas advocacy from the Trump administration, debate is raging over whether fossil fuels have peaked – and whether climate efforts need a “pragmatic” reset.
This is set to culminate with a battle to control the narrative around the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook for 2025, also due in early November.
Avantika Goswami, programme manager for climate change at India’s Centre for Science and Environment, told Carbon Brief that the global climate regime was at a “turning point”, where agreements had been signed and targets set, but action was “stalling”. She said:
“Implementation is weak, finance is undelivered and trust in the UN system is eroding, amid trade wars, militarism, debt crises and fractured multilateralism.”
Can COP30 respond?
Just days after the raft of new reports, on 6-7 November, heads of state and government will gather in the Brazilian city of Belém for a leaders summit ahead of the COP30 climate talks.
Views differ on how COP30 should respond to the current challenges.
The Brazilian presidency is pushing for a formal COP decision on any “disappoint[ment]” over NDCs falling short, collectively, of what is needed to avoid dangerous global warming.
During initial consultations, the EU said it wanted climate ambition to be added to the COP agenda, while the groups of least developed countries (LDCs), small island states and Latin American countries supported a formal COP decision on the matter. Others pushed back.
Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, told Carbon Brief that COP30 would need to respond in some way. She said:
“It’s clear that credibility at COP30 will require a response to the fact that countries’ climate pledges don’t add up to the level of ambition needed to tackle the crisis. The question after this week is, how will the COP outcomes enrich our definition of ambition beyond a headline emissions reduction goal?”
Abreu added that COP30 would need to address barriers, including “the equitable finance needed to implement goals and a lagging transition away from fossil fuels”.
Amid frustration over slow progress, calls for reform of the COP process are getting louder.
Goswami concluded: “The needs and ambitions of the global south must now shape the climate narrative – and COP30 must reckon with this new balance of power.”
Watch, read, listen
GAME OVER?: A feature in the Wall Street Journal said that, as Trump “doubles down on fossil fuels”, the US is “forfeiting the clean-energy race to China”.
POPULIST PUSHBACK: The Drilled podcast talked to a sociologist and a political scientist about “the intersection between the rise of rightwing populism and increasing resistance to acting on climate”.
ADULTS ONLY: For the New York Times, the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Li Shuo wrote that China was “the adult in the room on climate now”, despite its “modest” new pledge.
Coming up
- 22-26 September: Fifth world congress of biosphere reserves, Hangzhou, China
- 27 September: Seychelles elections
- 28 September: Moldova elections
- 30 September-1 October: 42nd UN water meeting, Geneva, Switzerland
Pick of the jobs
- Indigenous Climate Action, research coordinator | Salary: $55,000-$68,000. Location: Remote
- Greater London Authority, head of climate change | Salary: £91,268. Location: London
- Stockholm Environment Institute, research fellow: climate impact and climate finance | Salary: Unknown. Location: Nairobi, Kenya
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 26 September 2025: China leads new climate pledges; Trump calls warming a ‘con job’; What comes next appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
COP17 must settle who decides how Cali Fund money is disbursed
June Rubis is a steering group committee member for the Cali Fund, from Sarawak in Malaysian Borneo.
At COP16 in Cali, governments made a significant commitment: at least half of the funding from the new Cali Fund should support the self-identified needs of Indigenous Peoples and local communities, including women and youth. It was a watershed moment for multilateral benefit-sharing.
The challenge now is to translate that commitment into access arrangements that recognise the different institutions, priorities and decision-making processes of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
For generations, biodiversity and traditional Indigenous knowledge have provided significant value to companies who depend on nature’s genetic diversity to discover new drugs that fight diseases, create products that improve health, and grow crops resilient to extreme heat and flooding events. While some compounds are sampled directly from the source country, increasingly the digital blueprints are held in online public databases which are freely accessible to use for innovation and research.
Countries urged to ramp up “insufficient” nature policies at COP17
The Cali Fund was established at COP16 to encourage commercial users of Digital Sequence Information, or DSI, to share benefits arising from its use. Estimates suggest it could generate over $3.5 billion a year – a stark contrast to the modest $10,656 currently committed to the fund from just five SMEs, underlining how much progress must be made at COP17 over the next two weeks.
The COP16 decision that set up the fund offers two routes for money to reach Indigenous Peoples and local communities: through government authorities, and through direct payments to institutions identified by Indigenous Peoples and local communities themselves.
Varied ways of organising
Indigenous Peoples and local communities organise through a wide range of institutions. Some have national or regional organisations experienced in managing international grants. Others work through territorial organisations, customary institutions, community associations, cooperatives or networks. Some have professional finance teams and audited accounts; others have extensive experience governing territories, collective resources or conservation work without having been organised around international funding requirements.
For direct access, some questions are already apparent. Which institutions should be able to receive funds? How should they be identified? What fiduciary standards should apply? How should safeguards and accountability work where institutional capacities differ? What support may be needed where institutions have strong community mandates but less experience with international finance?
Comment: Protecting nature is a public duty, not a Wall Street profit opportunity
If access is designed mainly around institutions that already meet the expectations of large international finance mechanisms, early funding will tend to favour those already familiar to funders. They will gain further experience and become better positioned for future funding, while institutions with less administrative capacity may remain outside the system despite strong community mandates and long histories of stewardship.
These first decisions matter most, because they set the terms for everyone who follows.
The role of intermediaries requires care. Some Indigenous organisations may want a fiscal host to hold and manage funds on their behalf. Communities may choose to work through an NGO they trust. Government-facilitated arrangements may work well in particular national contexts.
What matters is the function an intermediary performs and the authority that comes with it. Providing administrative support is different from deciding which Indigenous organisations qualify, which priorities can receive support, or how success will be assessed. Direct access means communities keep that decision-making authority.
Decision-making power
The COP16 decision refers to institutions that Indigenous Peoples and local communities identify. But authority among Indigenous Peoples does not sit in one kind of body. It may sit with territorial organisations, customary institutions, community associations or combinations of these. Legal recognition and customary authority do not always align neatly.
Global deforestation slowed in 2025 but Brazil’s election could undo “fragile” gains
An important feature of the Cali Fund’s governance is that Indigenous Peoples and local communities participate as full members of the Steering Committee, rather than as observers. Seven Indigenous Peoples and local community representatives, one from each of the seven socio-cultural regions, participate in consensus-based decision-making alongside representatives of governments and UN entities. Six additional representatives from civil society, scientific institutions and the private sector participate as observers.
That representation carries responsibility. Institutional legitimacy, access and representation take different forms across the seven socio-cultural regions. Indigenous Peoples and local communities members therefore have an important role in bringing those differences into the Fund’s governance and in ensuring that arrangements developed for one context do not become the assumed model for everyone else.
Safeguards and clear responsibilities
COP17 can establish the core principles and direction, while allowing operational pathways to develop in ways that respond to different regional contexts. The decisions countries take in Yerevan will shape how that flexibility is realised in practice.
The choices made around access will influence which institutions are able to participate, which routes become established and which forms of authority are recognised within the funding architecture. The aim should be an architecture with enough structure to maintain confidence while allowing for different forms of Indigenous and community governance.
A credible direct-access pathway will need safeguards, financial oversight and clear responsibilities. This would give the 50% commitment a stronger institutional foundation.
The Cali Fund’s importance will ultimately depend not only on how much funding reaches Indigenous Peoples and local communities, but on whether they are able to determine how the money is accessed, governed and used. This requires access pathways that recognise their institutions, priorities and decision-making processes, rather than requiring them to conform to a single predetermined model.
The post COP17 must settle who decides how Cali Fund money is disbursed appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP17 must settle who decides how Cali Fund money is disbursed
Climate Change
UK approves gas drilling despite admitting blow to “climate leadership” status
The UK government has approved extraction at the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea, despite acknowledging that this decision could make it harder for Britain to convince other countries to move away from fossil fuel production.
UK energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh approved the drilling on Wednesday after months of high-profile debate, fuelled in part by interventions from US President Donald Trump. She argued that the project would boost energy security in the wake of the Middle East fossil fuel crisis, protect hundreds of jobs and add £2.9 billion ($3.88bn) to the UK economy.
She said Jackdaw’s gas would be cleaner than imported gas and would not prevent the UK from meeting its legally-binding carbon targets and its goal of net zero by 2050. As the field is already licensed, she said extraction was consistent with the Labour Party’s 2024 manifesto promise not to issue any new oil and gas licenses.
The same morning, the government announced a new Energy Wealth Fund to reinvest oil and gas revenues in the climate transition. It will start with £2 billion ($2.67bn) from the government and be topped up over time with tax revenues from offshore oil and gas production.

Climate campaigners in the UK and abroad were quick to condemn the decision, while a leading legal expert told Climate Home News it goes against the advice of the International Court of Justice. Meanwhile, the government’s own documents reveal that it recognises the drilling could damage the UK’s reputation and its ability to push forward the global transition away from fossil fuels.
“Climate leadership” blow
The 92-page decision document says Fahnbulleh “acknowledges that international standing on climate is important and accepts that a decision to grant consent may not further the UK’s international climate leadership.”
It adds: “She acknowledges concerns about the potential implications for the UK’s credibility and influence – including the difficulty inherent in encouraging other states to move away from fossil fuel production while the UK continues, in a limited and transitional way, to draw on its own domestic resources.”
While noting that Jackdaw has not been issued with a new license – just permission to extract gas – the document says Fahnbulleh “accepts this does not fully resolve the underlying tension in the UK’s position” but “considers this alongside the substance of the UK’s wider record [on emissions reduction], which remains significant”.
It continues that she accepts these concerns are “legitimate” and weigh against approving gas extraction, but only gives this argument a “moderate negative weight” set against the benefits of gas production.
“Huge” wrong signal
In international climate talks, the UK has long supported the transition away from fossil fuels and is one of very few major oil and gas producers to ban new licenses. Across the North Sea, the Norwegian government continues to make offshore areas available for oil and gas exploration through annual licensing rounds.
Climate experts and campaigners shared the concern, acknowledged in the decision document, that approving Jackdaw could set a precedent for fossil fuel production elsewhere. Sam Fankhauser, professor of climate change economics at Oxford University, said the direct climate impact of Jackdaw is “much smaller than the debate around it would suggest” but the “wrong signal it sends, however, is huge”.



