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CORSIA Carbon Credit Prices, Demand, and Supply: What the Future Holds

The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), launched by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), plays a major role in helping airlines offset their emissions and meet climate goals.

International air travel is bouncing back after the pandemic. This drives a surge in demand for carbon credits under CORSIA. A new report by Allied Offsets forecasts strong growth in both demand and prices of eligible carbon credits from 2025 through 2035.

This article explores the latest trends, price scenarios, and what this means for airlines, project developers, and the broader voluntary carbon market.

Rising Demand: Airlines Set to Purchase More Credits

Industry estimates say that demand for CORSIA-eligible carbon credits will hit 101 to 148 million tonnes (MtCO₂e) during Phase I (2024–2026). Demand will rise quickly in Phase II (2027–2035).

Cumulative needs are expected to be between 502 and 1,299 MtCO₂e. This will depend on how much international air traffic grows and how CORSIA expands its coverage.

This big increase comes from the rebound in international air travel and the start of Phase II in 2027. During this phase, most ICAO member countries must take part.

By 2035, demand might exceed 1 billion tonnes in high-growth scenarios. That’s about the same as the yearly emissions of a major industrialized country.

To summarize projected cumulative demand:

  • Phase I (2024–2026): 101–148 MtCO₂e

  • Phase II (2027–2035): 502–1,299 MtCO₂e

This growth presents both challenges and opportunities. Airlines need enough credits to comply with regulations. At the same time, project developers and suppliers face pressure to increase the verified supply of eligible credits.

Price Outlook: A Wide Range with Upward Pressure

The report outlines three price scenarios for carbon credits based on different market dynamics:

  1. Low Scenario: Prices start at $14/tonne in a tight supply scenario and grow slowly to $25/tonne in under supply scenario.

  2. Medium Scenario: Prices rise from $15/tonne to $29/tonne.

  3. High Scenario: Prices climb sharply from $16/tonne to $34/tonne.

CORSIA carbon credit supply, demand, and prices
Source: Allied Offsets

Even in the conservative case, prices show modest growth. But in the high-demand scenario, prices could grow over the next decade.

On the other hand, MSCI outlines a range of price scenarios for CORSIA-eligible carbon credits as follows:

  • Phase I (2024–2026): $18–$51 per tonne

  • Phase II (2027–2035): $27–$91 per tonne (by 2033–2035)

Projected CORSIA prices for two of four modeled scenarios
Source: MSCI

This price rise shows that airlines face more pressure to secure high-quality credits. This is especially true as more projects focus on long-term removal instead of just temporary avoidance.

High prices might lead some airlines to invest in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or insets. These options help reduce emissions in their operations.

Supply Gaps and Quality Filters

CORSIA doesn’t allow just any carbon credit. ICAO has strict rules for what qualifies — including restrictions on project start dates, crediting periods, and approved methodologies. Only credits from approved programs (like Verra, Gold Standard, and ART TREES) that meet these standards are eligible.

The report estimates that:

  • Only about 543 MtCO₂e of eligible credits will be issued by 2027.

CORSIA carbon credits supply
Source: Allied Offsets

Supply is projected to lag behind demand. Reports suggest possible deficits of 12–43 MtCO₂e in Phase I. Phase II may face even larger shortfalls. This is likely if stricter quality filters are used. These filters include co-benefits, permanence, and additionality. The exact numbers for filtered supply aren’t given, but these criteria would greatly lower the usable pool.

CORSIA credits issued versus forecast supply
Source: AlliedOffsets

Currently, most eligible supply comes from avoided deforestation (REDD+) and renewable energy projects. As demand increases and quality standards get stricter, the market will likely move toward lasting carbon removal solutions. This includes methods like reforestation, biochar, and direct air capture (DAC).

Regional Insights: Where Supply Comes From

The current credit supply under CORSIA is heavily concentrated in a few countries:

  • India, China, and Brazil together account for over 50% of the available supply.

Africa has fewer CORSIA-eligible credits now. However, it is expected to grow. This growth will focus on nature-based solutions, such as afforestation and cookstove projects.

This geographic concentration means that any changes in policy, political stability, or project approvals in key countries could disrupt supply. For example, if India were to change its rules on carbon credit exports — as some officials have suggested — global supply could shrink quickly.

Interest is growing in boosting credit generation in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Many areas there have good land for reforestation and carbon farming.

Market Trends and Implications for Airlines

CORSIA credits are part of the larger voluntary carbon market. This market has attracted a lot of interest from companies and governments. According to MSCI report, voluntary carbon markets could reach $250 billion annually by 2050.

carbon credit market value 2050 MSCI
Source: MSCI

But today’s CORSIA credits are selling for far less than the cost of removing CO₂ using high-tech methods like DAC, which can exceed $300 per tonne. This price gap has raised questions about credit quality and how buyers can demonstrate real climate impact.

SEE MORE: CORSIA Credits Soaring Costs: How They Are Reshaping Aviation’s Future

Some key trends include:

  • Airlines such as Delta, United, and Lufthansa are now mixing credit purchases with investments in SAF. They also support offsets from reforestation or engineered removals.

  • Programs like SBTi (Science-Based Targets initiative) encourage firms to reduce emissions. They also promote high-quality removals instead of bulk offsetting.

For airlines, this means they may need to:

  • Budget more for compliance over time

  • Diversify carbon offset portfolios

  • Communicate clearly about the credibility of their offsets

The Bigger Picture: What Comes Next

The Allied Offsets report shows that corporate buyers, like airlines, play a key role in global carbon markets. Their large, long-term offtake agreements — such as Microsoft’s 18 MtCO₂e deal with Rubicon Carbon — are shaping demand signals for the next decade.

ICAO plans to tighten CORSIA rules in future reviews. This may mean more removals and limits on older avoidance projects. This could further reduce supply and raise prices.

Policymakers can boost support for in-sector measures. This includes increasing SAF production and encouraging new removal technologies.

Airlines face challenges now. They must deal with rising prices, new rules, and increased scrutiny on carbon offsetting. In the long run, using durable carbon removals could change aviation and the climate finance system.

CORSIA is entering a critical phase. Demand is set to rise sharply. Meanwhile, supply is tightening due to stricter quality controls. As the report shows, the window to build a balanced, credible carbon market is narrowing. The next few years will shape the cost and credibility of airline decarbonization for decades to come.

The post CORSIA Carbon Credit Prices, Demand, and Supply: What the Future Holds appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Hanwha Qcells Launches EcoRecycle for Solar Panel Recycling

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solar panel

Hanwha Qcells has launched a solar panel recycling program called EcoRecycle. The company aims to recycle up to 250 megawatts (MW) of solar panels each year. This effort will reduce waste and promote sustainable energy in the U.S. It meets the growing need for solar panel recycling as the industry expands.

Why Qcells Chose Georgia?

Qcells chose Georgia for its new recycling facility. The company already runs major solar projects in the state, which is a hub for solar energy. Expanding there allows Qcells to use existing infrastructure and a skilled local workforce.

This year, EcoRecycle will begin operations at a state-of-the-art facility in Cartersville, Georgia. At full capacity, it can recycle about 250 MW of solar panels each year—around 500,000 panels—recovering materials like aluminum, glass, silver, and copper. EcoRecycle plans to expand its centers across the U.S. to boost efficiency.

This move helps the local economy by creating jobs and promoting green technology. Georgia is key to U.S. solar growth. It’s an ideal place for a large-scale recycling program that can transform how the industry manages solar waste.

Jung-Kwon Hong, Head of Hanwha Qcells Manufacturing Group

“As the U.S. moves towards a more sustainable and self-reliant solar industry, EcoRecycle by Qcells is committed to pioneering innovative recycling technologies that not only reduce environmental impact but also create economic opportunities. Through strategic investments and cutting-edge solutions, we are positioning ourselves as a leader in the circular economy, ensuring that solar energy remains a truly renewable and responsible power source.”

What Makes EcoRecycle Important for Solar Waste?

Solar panels typically last 25 to 30 years. As older panels reach the end of their life, they create a waste problem. Currently, less than 10% of solar panels are recycled. Most end up in landfills, wasting valuable materials like glass, aluminum, silicon, and silver.

Qcells wants to change this with EcoRecycle. The goal is to recover key materials and reuse them in new products. By keeping these materials in circulation, Qcells helps reduce emissions tied to mining and production, which are crucial steps in fighting climate change.

Kelly Weger, Senior Director of Sustainability at Hanwha Qcells said,

“With this new business, Hanwha Qcells will emerge as the first-ever crystalline silicon (C-Si) solar panel producer to possess a full value chain, conducting both solar panel manufacturing and recycling on U.S. soil. Effectively managing solar waste is essential to ensure the long-term sustainability and resilience of the clean energy sector. We’re proud to be leading the charge with the launch of EcoRecycle by Qcells.”

To boost its recycling efforts, Qcells partnered with Solarcycle, a company that specializes in solar panel recycling. Solarcycle uses innovative technology to separate valuable components from old panels. These parts, like silicon and precious metals, can be reused to make new panels.

This partnership allows Qcells to recycle more efficiently. It also shows how collaboration can help the solar sector adopt greener practices.

Recycling Solar Waste and Its Impact on the Environment

As global demand for solar energy grows, solar panel installations are rapidly increasing. At the same time, concerns are rising about carbon emissions from panel production and how to manage solar waste.

Measuring Solar’s Life-Cycle Emissions 

Life-cycle emissions refer to the total greenhouse gases released throughout the entire process of producing energy, from mining raw materials and manufacturing to installation, maintenance, and final disposal.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), producing 1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity from rooftop solar panels results in about 41 grams of CO2 equivalents—the same weight as a medium-sized chicken egg.

While solar energy isn’t completely carbon-free, its emissions are significantly lower than those from fossil fuel-based electricity, making it a much cleaner alternative.

Recycling solar panels cuts the need for raw materials like mined aluminum, copper, and glass. By reusing these materials, Qcells reduces energy use and carbon emissions tied to production.

solar emissions
Source: Image taken from Solar.com

In 2023, the Qcells division took responsibility by launching an extended producer responsibility (EPR) program and setting up an eco-friendly system to recycle waste panels.

Additionally, Solarcycle’s advanced resource separation can recover up to 95% of materials in a panel. This means less waste in landfills and fewer carbon emissions from mining and transporting raw materials. With solar panel waste expected to reach 76 million tons globally by 2030, EcoRecycle helps ease that future burden.

Boosting the U.S. Solar Sector

The U.S. solar sector is rapidly growing, currently valued at $20 billion. It will continue to expand as more homes and businesses adopt solar. However, this growth also creates more waste unless recycling becomes standard.

By launching EcoRecycle, Qcells prepares for future regulations and market demands. Currently, there are no national laws for solar panel recycling, though some states are starting to discuss it. If these laws pass, Qcells will be well-positioned to start early.

Recycling also reduces the solar industry’s reliance on imports for key materials, protecting companies from price changes. This stability gives manufacturers reliable domestic supplies of materials.

Trends Driving Solar Panel Recycling

In the renewable energy sector, companies are focusing more on the entire product lifecycle. This means designing solar technology for both performance and end-of-life management. More firms invest in recycling to maximize the value of their materials.

Businesses and governments promote a circular economy in solar, where products are reused or remade instead of being discarded. This approach reduces waste and supports long-term sustainability goals. Initiatives like Qcells’ EcoRecycle show this strategy in action.

Industry experts agree that effective recycling will shape the next phase of solar growth. According to EIA’s latest forecast, the US expects 63GW of new utility-scale power projects in 2025, with solar PV leading the way. Utility-scale solar PV will contribute 32.5GW, making up 52% of the total.

US SOLAR

However, this growth brings increased waste. If recycling doesn’t keep pace, the solar boom could lead to major environmental challenges.

EcoRecycle addresses the urgent need for infrastructure to manage outdated and damaged panels. With Solarcycle’s advanced recovery technology, Qcells takes an early lead in a market with few large-scale recyclers. This offers both environmental and competitive advantages.

Public pressure is also growing. Consumers want to know what happens to products after they use them. They prefer brands that act responsibly. Qcells’ program meets this demand. It builds trust with an audience that cares about sustainable energy choices.

EcoRecycle Sets a New Standard in Solar Tech Management

EcoRecycle sets a new standard for responsible solar tech management. Growth is important, but the solar industry must handle its waste. If it doesn’t, it risks undermining its green mission. Hanwha Qcells is an example of this by its investment in recycling. They offer a roadmap for others to follow.

As technology advances and regulations change, recycling will likely become central to solar economics. Qcells’ proactive approach lets it shape the market while helping reduce emissions and landfill waste. It’s not just about solar power; it’s about building a sustainable future.

With EcoRecycle, Qcells has taken a significant step forward. It paves the way for a future where energy is clean, smart, and sustainable.

The post Hanwha Qcells Launches EcoRecycle for Solar Panel Recycling appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Global Investment in CCS Surges Toward $80 Billion as Climate Goals Drive Demand

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Governments and businesses are investing heavily in carbon capture and storage (CCS) to meet climate goals and decarbonize heavy industries. With nearly $80 billion in investment expected to flow into the sector in the coming years, carbon capture is becoming a central part of global climate strategies. Reports say global CCS capacity might grow four times by 2030. This shows big advances in technology, funding, and teamwork across countries.

Why Is CCS Gaining So Much Attention?

Carbon capture and storage is a process that captures carbon dioxide (CO₂) from industrial and energy-related sources before it reaches the atmosphere. It then stores the carbon underground in geological formations.

CCS works well in sectors like cement, steel, and fossil fuel plants. These areas are tough to decarbonize with just renewable energy.

CCS capacity additions 2030
Source: DNV Report

A notable example is a $500 million agreement between Occidental Petroleum and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). They will build a big direct air capture (DAC) facility in Texas.

The deal shows the growing global interest in CCS. It’s not just about cutting emissions; it’s also about creating carbon removal solutions that support other climate efforts.

Experts agree that CCS isn’t a complete solution. However, it plays a key role by tackling emissions that other technologies can’t remove. It is also one of the few methods available today for carbon dioxide removal, a crucial component for meeting long-term climate targets.

How Fast Is CCS Capacity Growing?

The global CCS capacity is expected to grow fourfold by 2030, according to the DNV report. From around 50 million tonnes of CO₂ captured annually today, capacity could rise to more than 550 million tonnes per year by the end of the decade. This would represent around 6% of today’s energy-related global emissions.

global carbon emissions captured with CCS
Source: DNV Report

This growth requires major investment in infrastructure, including new carbon pipelines, storage hubs, and large-scale capture facilities. North America and Europe are expected to lead the expansion. They could make up more than 80% of the expected CCS capacity by 2030. This is due to helpful climate policies, funding incentives, and established infrastructure.

CCS capacity additions by region
Source: DNV Report

In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act drives CCS growth. It offers tax credits up to $85 for each metric ton of CO₂ captured and stored permanently. Similarly, the European Union supports CCS through its Innovation Fund, with countries like Norway and the Netherlands building cross-border carbon storage networks in the North Sea.

Emerging markets are also entering the CCS space. In Asia, Japan and South Korea have begun planning domestic CCS facilities and exploring regional carbon storage partnerships.

Smart Tech, Lower Costs: CCS Innovation Takes Off

Technology is central to making CCS more effective and affordable. Current advancements include improved solvents for carbon capture, modular DAC units, and more efficient CO₂ transport and storage systems. These innovations help lower energy use and cut costs.

A 2023 report from the Energy Futures Initiative (EFI) says CCS costs might drop by 40% by 2050. This could happen because of better technology and larger production. New digital tools, like AI monitoring systems, are being tested. They track carbon storage performance in real time and help ensure long-term safety.

Data centers in the U.S. are beginning to integrate CCS into their sustainability efforts. For example, Microsoft is partnering with firms like Heirloom and CarbonCapture to buy permanent carbon removal credits backed by CCS. These partnerships show how CCS is moving beyond industrial use and into corporate sustainability strategies.

Hybrid projects, combining renewable energy with CCS, are also on the rise. These include bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), where biomass is used for power generation and the CO₂ is captured. This type of system can result in net-negative emissions—removing more carbon from the atmosphere than it emits.

CDR by sector 2050
Source: DNV Report

How Do Policy and Carbon Markets Influence CCS Growth?

Strong policy support is driving CCS development. In the U.S., the Section 45Q tax credit offers financial incentives for both point-source carbon capture and DAC projects. The Department of Energy also provides funding for demonstration and early-stage CCS projects.

Globally, carbon markets are beginning to recognize the role of CCS. The voluntary carbon market (VCM) and compliance markets in California and the EU Emissions Trading System are considering or already using CCS-based credits.

In 2024, the global carbon market was valued at around $1.4 billion according to MSCI, with voluntary carbon credit transaction volumes declining but demand remaining steady. Projections suggest it could grow significantly, reaching between $7 billion and $35 billion by 2030.

Longer-term forecasts estimate the market could expand to as much as $250 billion by 2050. This is driven by increasing corporate climate commitments and demand for high-quality carbon removal credits.

High-quality carbon credits from CCS projects could play a major role in this growth. Projects that use strict measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) protocols can attract higher prices. This applies in both voluntary and regulatory markets.

Wood Mackenzie estimates the U.S. CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage) sector could offer a $196 billion investment opportunity over the next 10 years. This is especially true for the oil, gas, chemical, and power industries.

CCUS government funding
Source: Wood Mackenzie

Meanwhile, countries like Canada, Australia, and the UK are developing shared CCS “hub” models—regional centers that link multiple emission sources to centralized storage facilities. These hubs lower costs and speed up development by pooling resources and infrastructure.

A Critical Piece of the Climate Puzzle

By 2030, global CCS projects could capture between 430 and 550 million tonnes of CO₂ each year. This is a big step forward, but it’s not enough. Experts say we need 1.3 billion tonnes per year by mid-century to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

Still, CCS plays a unique and necessary role in cutting emissions where alternatives are limited. The technology’s capture capacity will grow to 1,300 MtCO2/yr. It also supports the production of low-carbon hydrogen, decarbonized fuels, and sustainable building materials.

CCS growth 2050
Source: DNV Report

However, some environmental groups caution that CCS must be applied carefully. Using captured carbon for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) can hurt climate efforts. This happens if it isn’t combined with limits on fossil fuel use.

Clear governance, independent checks, and science-based standards are key to making sure CCS projects truly help climate goals. While it is not a silver bullet, CCS can buy time and cut emissions in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize with renewables alone.

As global capacity grows and costs drop, CCS will likely be key to climate strategies. This includes energy efficiency, clean fuels, and electrification. Continued collaboration among stakeholders, significant investment, and communities’ support will be key to making carbon capture and storage both scalable and sustainable.

The post Global Investment in CCS Surges Toward $80 Billion as Climate Goals Drive Demand appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Fervo Energy Secures $206 Million for U.S. Geothermal Ambitions

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Fervo Energy Secures $206 Million for U.S. Geothermal Ambitions

Fervo Energy, a U.S.-based startup focused on next-generation geothermal power, recently announced a $206 million fundraising round to progress its Cape Station project in southwest Utah. This financing includes venture capital and energy investors. It adds to Fervo’s earlier $556 million in equity and $220 million in debt. Now, their total capital is almost $1 billion.

Fracking for Heat: How Fervo’s EGS Breakthrough Works

Fervo employs Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), which borrow technology from oil and gas drilling. It uses deep, horizontal wells and hydraulic stimulation to create heat zones in dry rock—sometimes called “fracking for heat”.

enhanced geothermal systems
Source: Horne, R. et al. (2025). Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44359-024-00019-9

In Nevada, Fervo’s pilot “Project Red” previously generated 3.5 MW with steady flow rates of 60 L/s, validating the EGS model. Cape Station will stack multiple horizontal wells to boost output to 400 MW by 2028.

The Utah project aims to deliver 100 MW of power by 2026 and scale to 500 MW by 2028—enough to supply nearly 500,000 homes. Fervo has sales agreements, including one for 320 MW with Southern California Edison. They plan to build the largest enhanced geothermal system plant in the world.

To fund this growth, Fervo raised $100 million from Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, $60 million in loan upsizing from Mercuria, and $45.6 million in bridge debt from XRL-ALC. Chief Financial Officer David Ulrey remarked on this significant fund raise, noting:

“These investments demonstrate what we’ve known all along: Fervo’s combination of technical excellence, commercial readiness, and market opportunity makes us a natural partner for serious energy capital.”

Hot Commodity: Why Geothermal Is Gaining Global Ground

Geothermal energy is becoming popular globally because it offers steady power all day. In 2023, its capacity utilization was 75%. In comparison, wind energy was at 30%, and solar was at 15%.

The broader geothermal market (including heat pumps) topped $7.5 billion in 2023 and could reach $9.2 billion by 2030, growing at about 3.1% annually. By mid-century, geothermal could play a major role in the clean energy mix.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts 800 GW of added geothermal capacity by 2050, supplying 15% of new electricity. In the U.S. alone, Enhanced Geothermal Systems may fill 90 GW of firm, zero-carbon power needs by 2050—enough for 65 million homes.

EGS sits at the cutting edge of geothermal technology. A Market Research Future study shows more rapid expansion, projecting growth from $6.9 billion in 2024 to $14.1 billion by 2034, at a 7.4% growth rate.

EGS market 2032
Source: Market Research Future

Notably, governments, oil and gas firms, and utilities are increasingly investing in geothermal energy. If next-generation technologies achieve major cost reductions, cumulative global investment could reach $1 trillion by 2035 and $2.5 trillion by 2050.

Cumulative investment for next-generation geothermal
Source: IEA report

Annual investment may peak at $140 billion, surpassing today’s global spending on onshore wind. As a dispatchable and clean power source, geothermal is attracting interest beyond traditional energy players.

Tech companies, in particular, are eyeing geothermal to meet the rising electricity demands of data centers. These tech giants are also considering this clean energy source for their emission reductions and net-zero targets.

Geothermal Energy’s Role in Reducing Greenhouse Gases 

Geothermal power plays a significant role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to fossil fuels. Lifecycle studies, like those from the IPCC, show that geothermal electricity emits only 38–45 grams of CO₂ equivalent per kWh.

In comparison, coal emits 820 g CO₂/kWh, and natural gas emits 490 g CO₂/kWh. This means geothermal emits about 90% less CO₂ (or even up to 99%) than traditional power plants and ranks among the cleanest electricity sources.

Enhanced Geothermal Systems can reduce emissions over time. They may reach as low as 10 g CO₂/kWh. This is achieved by reinjecting geothermal fluids and reducing natural gas leakage.

With favorable global deployment, geothermal power could cut 500 million metric tons of CO₂ from electricity and 1.25 billion metric tons from heating and cooling by 2050. That’s like removing 26 million cars from the roads every year.

Geothermal energy is reliable 24/7. This means less dependence on carbon-heavy sources, like natural gas. That value rises as renewables like solar and wind grow because geothermal energy can smooth out fluctuations.

Moreover, geothermal energy has low emissions and reliable performance. It supports clean energy systems, reduces fossil fuel use, and helps countries meet climate goals. This makes it a strong ally in the battle against global warming.

High Stakes, High Rewards: The Economics Behind the Heat

Geothermal energy needs no fuel and offers stable costs, but initial development is expensive. Drilling accounts for over half its capital cost.

A typical geothermal well pair costs around $10 million for 4.5 MW, but EGS wells may exceed $4 million per MW. Studies show a 20% failure rate on wells—that means one in five dry holes.

However, costs are dropping. The U.S. aims for a capital cost of $3,700 per kW by 2035. This is a big drop from about $28,000 per kW in 2021. As a result, the LCOE could reach $45 per MWh. This would make it competitive with solar and wind-plus-storage. 

Congress and the Department of Energy support this shift, funding projects like Utah’s FORGE site, which de-risks new well and drilling methods and shares insights with startups like Fervo.

Geothermal also brings strong economic returns. Fervo estimates its Utah site will support 6,000 construction jobs and generate $437 million in local wages.

What’s Next for Fervo—and for the Future of Clean Baseload

While geothermal shows promise, Fervo and the broader industry face challenges. Each well costs tens of millions, and drilling carries technical risk and potential delays. EGS also faces regulatory hurdles and community concerns—especially in Southeast Asia, where rules and local engagement vary widely.

Globally, however, momentum is building. Governments aim for $1.7–2.9 trillion in nuclear and geothermal investment by 2050, with geothermal carving out a growing share. Private investors and tech firms are joining, and public research supports cost reductions and scalability.

Fervo’s upcoming Cape Station plant—with financing, off-take deals, and strong technology performance—could serve as a model for future geothermal development. If drilling costs fall and projects deliver on forecasts, geothermal may become a cornerstone of the clean-energy grid.

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