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CORSIA Carbon Credit Prices, Demand, and Supply: What the Future Holds

The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), launched by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), plays a major role in helping airlines offset their emissions and meet climate goals.

International air travel is bouncing back after the pandemic. This drives a surge in demand for carbon credits under CORSIA. A new report by Allied Offsets forecasts strong growth in both demand and prices of eligible carbon credits from 2025 through 2035.

This article explores the latest trends, price scenarios, and what this means for airlines, project developers, and the broader voluntary carbon market.

Rising Demand: Airlines Set to Purchase More Credits

Industry estimates say that demand for CORSIA-eligible carbon credits will hit 101 to 148 million tonnes (MtCO₂e) during Phase I (2024–2026). Demand will rise quickly in Phase II (2027–2035).

Cumulative needs are expected to be between 502 and 1,299 MtCO₂e. This will depend on how much international air traffic grows and how CORSIA expands its coverage.

This big increase comes from the rebound in international air travel and the start of Phase II in 2027. During this phase, most ICAO member countries must take part.

By 2035, demand might exceed 1 billion tonnes in high-growth scenarios. That’s about the same as the yearly emissions of a major industrialized country.

To summarize projected cumulative demand:

  • Phase I (2024–2026): 101–148 MtCO₂e

  • Phase II (2027–2035): 502–1,299 MtCO₂e

This growth presents both challenges and opportunities. Airlines need enough credits to comply with regulations. At the same time, project developers and suppliers face pressure to increase the verified supply of eligible credits.

Price Outlook: A Wide Range with Upward Pressure

The report outlines three price scenarios for carbon credits based on different market dynamics:

  1. Low Scenario: Prices start at $14/tonne in a tight supply scenario and grow slowly to $25/tonne in under supply scenario.

  2. Medium Scenario: Prices rise from $15/tonne to $29/tonne.

  3. High Scenario: Prices climb sharply from $16/tonne to $34/tonne.

CORSIA carbon credit supply, demand, and prices
Source: Allied Offsets

Even in the conservative case, prices show modest growth. But in the high-demand scenario, prices could grow over the next decade.

On the other hand, MSCI outlines a range of price scenarios for CORSIA-eligible carbon credits as follows:

  • Phase I (2024–2026): $18–$51 per tonne

  • Phase II (2027–2035): $27–$91 per tonne (by 2033–2035)

Projected CORSIA prices for two of four modeled scenarios
Source: MSCI

This price rise shows that airlines face more pressure to secure high-quality credits. This is especially true as more projects focus on long-term removal instead of just temporary avoidance.

High prices might lead some airlines to invest in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or insets. These options help reduce emissions in their operations.

Supply Gaps and Quality Filters

CORSIA doesn’t allow just any carbon credit. ICAO has strict rules for what qualifies — including restrictions on project start dates, crediting periods, and approved methodologies. Only credits from approved programs (like Verra, Gold Standard, and ART TREES) that meet these standards are eligible.

The report estimates that:

  • Only about 543 MtCO₂e of eligible credits will be issued by 2027.

CORSIA carbon credits supply
Source: Allied Offsets

Supply is projected to lag behind demand. Reports suggest possible deficits of 12–43 MtCO₂e in Phase I. Phase II may face even larger shortfalls. This is likely if stricter quality filters are used. These filters include co-benefits, permanence, and additionality. The exact numbers for filtered supply aren’t given, but these criteria would greatly lower the usable pool.

CORSIA credits issued versus forecast supply
Source: AlliedOffsets

Currently, most eligible supply comes from avoided deforestation (REDD+) and renewable energy projects. As demand increases and quality standards get stricter, the market will likely move toward lasting carbon removal solutions. This includes methods like reforestation, biochar, and direct air capture (DAC).

Regional Insights: Where Supply Comes From

The current credit supply under CORSIA is heavily concentrated in a few countries:

  • India, China, and Brazil together account for over 50% of the available supply.

Africa has fewer CORSIA-eligible credits now. However, it is expected to grow. This growth will focus on nature-based solutions, such as afforestation and cookstove projects.

This geographic concentration means that any changes in policy, political stability, or project approvals in key countries could disrupt supply. For example, if India were to change its rules on carbon credit exports — as some officials have suggested — global supply could shrink quickly.

Interest is growing in boosting credit generation in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Many areas there have good land for reforestation and carbon farming.

Market Trends and Implications for Airlines

CORSIA credits are part of the larger voluntary carbon market. This market has attracted a lot of interest from companies and governments. According to MSCI report, voluntary carbon markets could reach $250 billion annually by 2050.

carbon credit market value 2050 MSCI
Source: MSCI

But today’s CORSIA credits are selling for far less than the cost of removing CO₂ using high-tech methods like DAC, which can exceed $300 per tonne. This price gap has raised questions about credit quality and how buyers can demonstrate real climate impact.

SEE MORE: CORSIA Credits Soaring Costs: How They Are Reshaping Aviation’s Future

Some key trends include:

  • Airlines such as Delta, United, and Lufthansa are now mixing credit purchases with investments in SAF. They also support offsets from reforestation or engineered removals.

  • Programs like SBTi (Science-Based Targets initiative) encourage firms to reduce emissions. They also promote high-quality removals instead of bulk offsetting.

For airlines, this means they may need to:

  • Budget more for compliance over time

  • Diversify carbon offset portfolios

  • Communicate clearly about the credibility of their offsets

The Bigger Picture: What Comes Next

The Allied Offsets report shows that corporate buyers, like airlines, play a key role in global carbon markets. Their large, long-term offtake agreements — such as Microsoft’s 18 MtCO₂e deal with Rubicon Carbon — are shaping demand signals for the next decade.

ICAO plans to tighten CORSIA rules in future reviews. This may mean more removals and limits on older avoidance projects. This could further reduce supply and raise prices.

Policymakers can boost support for in-sector measures. This includes increasing SAF production and encouraging new removal technologies.

Airlines face challenges now. They must deal with rising prices, new rules, and increased scrutiny on carbon offsetting. In the long run, using durable carbon removals could change aviation and the climate finance system.

CORSIA is entering a critical phase. Demand is set to rise sharply. Meanwhile, supply is tightening due to stricter quality controls. As the report shows, the window to build a balanced, credible carbon market is narrowing. The next few years will shape the cost and credibility of airline decarbonization for decades to come.

The post CORSIA Carbon Credit Prices, Demand, and Supply: What the Future Holds appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD

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For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.

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How community stewardship makes carbon credits durable

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A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?

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Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility

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What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.

Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.

Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.

What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working

The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.

Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.

The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.

The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.

The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.

The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.

What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign

The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.

  • What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
  • What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
  • What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
  • What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
  • What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.

If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.

Where this leaves your near-term commitments

You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.

You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.

Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.

If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.

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