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The copper market is seeing big changes lately. A short-term trade truce between the US and China has helped push copper prices up, giving investors some relief. At the same time, China is producing more refined copper than ever before.

But there’s a problem, there isn’t enough copper ore to meet demand. Even with record imports, supply is still tight. With inflation and global growth concerns still hanging around, the market remains on edge.

Let’s study deeper…

Copper Prices Rally on Eased Trump’s Tariff Tensions

COMEX July Futures: Copper futures for July delivery are trading at approximately $4.68 per pound (or $10,296 per tonne), reflecting a 1.3% increase following the recent US-China trade truce.

This boost came after a temporary easing in trade tensions between the US and China. Investors welcomed the news, anticipating smoother trade flows and fewer disruptions in global commodity markets.

copper prices
Source: Bloomberg

What’s Driving the Copper Price Surge?

Elaborating further, both countries have rolled back tariffs for the next 90 days. US tariffs on Chinese goods dropped to 30%, while China cut its tariffs on US imports to 10%. This move has created a positive ripple effect across commodities, stocks, and currencies.

According to media sources, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the agreement as a “very good framework” and stressed that the US is not seeking full economic decoupling from China. This statement helped further calm market fears.

Another significant factor that pushed up copper prices was China’s record-high imports in April. The world’s largest copper consumer imported nearly 3 million tonnes of copper concentrate last month. Experts predict that this increase could ease supply tightness and help local smelters, which have been struggling with low ore availability.

Challenges Still Persist for Chinese Copper Smelters

While China’s copper imports have surged, its smelters remain under pressure. According to Discovery Alert, spot treatment charges turned negative in December and fell further to -$57.50 per tonne by early May. Smelters are now paying to process ore, which is a sign of tight supply and intense competition.

China’s refined copper production has hit all-time highs, even though copper ore remains in short supply. The situation worsened due to a two-month export halt at Indonesia’s PT Freeport mine and a smelter shutdown in the Philippines. Both events tightened global supply but later helped China when ore flow resumed.

According to Mysteel Global analyst Li Chengbin, Chinese plants are better prepared this year, securing long-term contracts and benefiting from resumed exports out of Indonesia.

A Look Back: The Copper Price Shakeup

Just days before the trade truce, copper prices took a hit. On April 4, Bloomberg reported a sharp decline in both copper and global equity markets. On the London Metal Exchange, prices dropped as much as 7.7%, briefly reaching $8,735 per tonne before rebounding slightly.

Earlier, traders had rushed to ship copper into the US to avoid rising tariffs. Premiums surged to $500 per tonne. Major firms like Mercuria and Trafigura had predicted copper prices could hit $12,000 per tonne. But when the US unexpectedly shortened the tariff deadline, buyers were caught off guard, and stockpiles began piling up outside US ports.

copper

Copper Market Outlook 2025–2026

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shared its latest copper forecast during a meeting held on April 25, 2025, in Lisbon. Both mine and refined copper production are expected to see solid growth through 2026.

ICSG expects a surplus of about 289,000 tonnes for 2025, slightly higher than the surplus of 194,000 tonnes forecast last September. It’s a surplus of about 209,000 tonnes is currently expected for 2026. This is attributed to weak global demand, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policies.

Mine Production on the Rise

In 2025, global copper mine production is projected to increase by 2.3%, reaching around 23.5 million tons. This growth will be driven mainly by the continued ramp-up of major projects like Kamoa in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, along with the commissioning of the new Malmyz mine in Russia.

However, some of these gains will be partially offset by expected output declines in Australia, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan.

For 2026, the ICSG expects a slightly higher growth rate of 2.5%. This will be supported by ongoing capacity expansion, particularly in China, as well as an expected recovery in Indonesia and improved output from Chile and Zambia.

Additionally, several smaller mining operations and mid-sized projects in countries like Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola, and Morocco will contribute to the overall production increase.

copper mine production
Source: International Copper Study Group (ICSG)

Refined Copper Output Expanding

Refined copper production is forecast to rise by about 2.9% in 2025. The increase will be fueled by continued capacity expansion in China and new refining operations starting in Indonesia, India, and the DRC.

Growth in 2026 is expected to slow slightly to 1.5%, but output will still benefit from ongoing upgrades and new capacity additions across several countries.

In short, the global copper market is on a growth path, with new projects and recovering output in key regions setting the stage for steady production gains through 2026.

copper
Source: International Copper Study Group (ICSG)

Other Forecasts

  • Long-Term Price Predictions: According to LongForecast, copper prices are expected to average around $4.535 per pound in May 2025, with potential fluctuations ranging from $4.180 to $4.896.

  • Goldman Sachs has revised its copper price forecast for Q2 2025 to $9,330 per tonne, up from the previous estimate of $8,620, citing shifts in the global metals market.

The US-China trade truce has breathed new life into the copper market, lifting prices and calming investor nerves. China’s record copper imports have also helped support global demand. But the road ahead is still uncertain. All in all, inflation, interest rates, and economic growth will all play a role in copper’s next move.

The post Copper Prices Surge to $10,296/Tonne as US-China Truce Sparks Market Rally appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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