Catherine Abreu is the Director of the International Climate Politics Hub

In a move straight out of the movies, the UN Secretary-General’s High Level Climate Event in September put the two prospective hosts for the 2026 global climate talks, Türkiye and Australia, back-to-back in the speaking order.

Both President Erdogan and Prime Minister Albanese confidently welcomed the world to their countries for COP31. Here at COP30, the drama continues, with the Australian and Turkish Pavilions sitting side-by-side while neither country seems prepared to step back from their bid. Get your popcorn.

Except this isn’t the movies, it’s the UN-led, multilateral process charged with helping us save ourselves from runaway climate change. And, thus far, what has been conspicuously missing from the pseudo-dramatic showdown between these two potential hosts is any meaningful discussion about how either country would aim to use its presidency of the climate talks to accelerate action on climate change, in their own country or globally. The drama, it would seem, has been misplaced.

Any country wanting to host the annual UN summit on climate change should be making the case for doing so based on their climate credentials – and their climate ambition.

While some past COPs may have made us forget this, the energy and intent of current COP President Brazil, and the conversation Brazil’s COP presidency has generated at home about the country’s climate action, serve as useful reminders of what we should be striving for in the host of the climate talks.

It would be disappointing not to have a solid plan in place for COP31 and risk losing the momentum Brazil will hopefully have generated by the end of COP30.

COP host criteria

So, what should we be looking for in a COP host? First, we need a prospective presidency to be clear about the conversations they envisage mediating in the run-up to and during their summit and how those will help us advance a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy and energy efficiency, within the framework of the Paris Agreement.

We need a COP presidency focused on the question of how they can use their platform to help improve countries’ abilities to respond to the impacts of climate change and address the losses and damages they are experiencing.

We need a presidency fully engaged with using their platform to secure commitments to provide the finance countries need to take climate action and respond to climate impacts, while advancing the need to transform global financial systems so that we are tackling the problem of climate change at its core, rather than deepening it.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we need a host ready to commit their COP to being an effective space for negotiating, deliberation and decision making that is free from the undue influence of actors who are there to slow us down.

In other words, is the potential host ready to commit to a COP led by science and traditional and Indigenous knowledge? Are they prepared to ensure transparent accreditation processes that will expose conflicts of interest? And are they prepared and competent to facilitate an effective COP structure so that parties are given the opportunity to have the conversations they need to have, and to land the outcomes they need to achieve, without the influence of anticlimate lobbyists in their midst? If the answers to all of these questions are not a resounding yes, this is not the Presidency we need.

Moreover, a potential COP host should be prepared to use their global platform to substantially advance climate action on the domestic level.

In the case of Australia, that should involve being steered by the wider Pacific leadership on just and equitable transitions away from fossil fuels. As the second largest coal exporter in the world and with a domestic energy mix that includes both fossil fuels and booming renewable energy growth, Australia can and should be aiming to credibly lead conversations on export market transformation and power system transitions to ethical renewable energy and improving energy efficiency.

For Türkiye, affirming a direction of travel away from coal dependency is key. So far Türkiye has been opposed to this both domestically and internationally; indeed, it did not sign up to the tripling renewables pledge at COP28, even though that target was aligned with Türkiye’s own renewable targets, because the text referred to “coal phase-down”. Türkiye moving past its opposition and opening up to a dialogue on a just transition away from coal would be a significant victory for the climate.

There are many reasons a country may want to host the UN climate summit. Foremost among those reasons, and at the heart of the UN process that decides COP hosts, should be the drive to lead national and global conversations that make a real difference in tackling the climate crisis.

The post Climate is MIA in Australia and Turkiye’s bids to host COP31 appeared first on Climate Home News.

Climate is MIA in Australia and Türkiye’s bids to host COP31

Two days into COP30, the world’s most populous country and third-biggest emitter – India – has yet to announce its 2035 NDC emissions target. Of the G20 major economies, only India and Saudi Arabia have still not done so.

The delay has confounded the pre-summit expectations of the UN and Indian media. Citing government sources, the Indian Express and The Hindu separately reported back in September that it would be announced “during, or just ahead of” COP30.

The government of India – which was enraged by the ending of the last COP where it fiercely rejected the new climate finance goal – has so far had a low-profile at this one.

With local elections going on in Bihar, the country’s speech at the leaders’ summit was delivered not by the prime minister or even a minister but by the country’s ambassador to Brazil.

He announced nothing new of substance – other than joining the Tropical Forest Forever Facility as an observer – but criticised developed countries for depleting the carbon budget while developing countries lead the way in taking “decisive climate action”.

…but Mexico and Korea land new goals

In contrast, Mexico’s environment minister announced in Belém that the country will aim to cut emissions by up to 50% by 2035 compared to a business-as-usual scenario.

For the first time, the oil-producing nation has set a limit on absolute emissions of 365 million-404 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2035. It also targets – conditional on international support – a lower level of 332-363 million tonnes by the same year.

According to a recent UN report, the country’s current policies will keep emissions rising and Mexico’s 2030 target allows them to do so until at least 2030 before they start coming down to reach net zero by 2050.

In South Korea, the government on Tuesday announced a target to reduce emissions 53-61% from 2018 levels by 2035. The country’s emissions peaked around 2018 and have started heading slowly downward. It had earlier promised a 40% cut by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050.

The new 2035 target is more ambitious than two scenarios proposed just a few days ago by the environment ministry. However, sectoral targets for industry are less ambitious than the total, which is seen as a response to pressure from energy-intensive industries.

Climate minister Kim Sung-whan told a press briefing that higher ambition for manufacturing was not possible “as too few investments have been made in the past to suddenly decarbonise manufacturing industries by a significant amount”.

Gahee Han, from Korean NGO Solutions For Our Climate, said the government would aim for the lower end of the range – 53% – which “falls far short of what is needed”. She called for the government to target at least the upper level of 61%.

The post COP30 Bulletin Day 2: India’s targets missing but Korea and Mexico make pledges appeared first on Climate Home News.

COP30 Bulletin Day 2: India’s targets missing but Korea and Mexico make pledges

For the first time in the history of COP climate summits, the US – the world’s largest historical emitter – has not sent a delegation to the talks.

Back in January, newly inaugurated US president Donald Trump signed a letter to the UN to trigger the start of a US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for a second time.

Although this process is not yet complete, the White House confirmed earlier this month that no “high-level officials” would be attending COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

The US joins Afghanistan, Myanmar and San Marino as the only countries not registering a delegation for the summit, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis of the provisional lists of delegates published by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Despite these absences, more than 56,000 delegates have signed up to COP30, provisionally placing the summit as one of the largest in COP history.

This is despite the run-up to the negotiations being dogged by reports of a shortage of beds and “sky-high” accommodation costs.

Brazil even offered free cabins on cruise ships moored in Belém to delegations from low-income nations who were otherwise unable to attend.

According to the provisional figures, 193 countries, plus the European Union, have registered a delegation for the summit.

Unsurprisingly, the largest delegation comes from COP30 hosts Brazil, with 3,805 people registered.

This is followed, in order, by China, Nigeria, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

This year also sees the largest number of “virtual” delegates, with more than 5,000 people signed up to attend the talks online.

Party delegations

With 56,118 delegates registered, COP30 is provisionally the second-largest COP in history, behind only COP28 in Dubai, which was attended by more than 80,000 people.

This is the provisional total, based on the delegates that have registered to be at the summit in person. At recent COPs, the final total is at least 10,000 lower, which would drop COP30 down to the fourth largest.

(The UNFCCC releases the final figures – based on participants collecting a physical badge at the venue – after the summit has closed.)

The chart below shows how the provisional figures for COP30 compare to the final totals in past COPs – going back to COP1 in Berlin in 1995.

The participant lists provided by the UNFCCC are divided between the different types of groups and organisations attending the summit. The largest group at COP30 is for delegates representing parties. These are nation states, plus the European Union, that have ratified the convention and play a full part in negotiations.

This group adds up to 11,519 delegates – the fourth largest behind the past three COPs.

(In keeping with recent COPs, the UNFCCC has published spreadsheets that name every single person that has registered for the summit – excluding support staff. Previously, COPs have typically included thousands of “overflow” participants in which countries and UN agencies could nominate delegates without their names appearing on their official lists.)

For consistency with Carbon Brief’s analysis of previous COPs, the above chart includes overflow delegates as a single group. However, the participant lists do divide the overflow delegates between parties and observer groups. Including the overflow numbers approximately doubles the total for party representatives to 23,509.

US no-show

Overall, of the 198 parties to the UNFCCC, 194 have registered delegations for COP30.

The most notable absentee is the US, which has been present at every other COP in history – even throughout Donald Trump’s first presidency.

On average, the US sends a delegation of around 100 people, typically making it one of the larger groups at the talks.

The absent parties – Afghanistan, Myanmar and San Marino – have been more sporadic attendees at past COPs.

Despite reports of a “logistical nightmare” hosting a COP summit in the Amazon, there has been no drop-off in the number of countries registering delegations for COP30.

In addition to hotel rooms and rental properties in Belém, beds have been made available on cruise ships, in converted shipping containers and in motels that Reuters primly described as being typically “aimed at amorous couples”.

Reports suggested that many developing nations considered scaling back their presence at COP30, with smaller delegations or attendees only coming for a few days.

While the average party delegation size of 59 (excluding overflows) is lower than the previous two COPs, it is similar to the average in COP26 in Glasgow and COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh.

The map and table below present the delegation size – split between party and overflow badges – for all the countries registered for COP30. The darker the shading, the more delegates that country has signed up. Use the search box to find the data for a specific party.

The largest delegation comes from host country Brazil, with 3,805 people registered. China (789) and Nigeria (749) follow with the second- and third-largest, respectively.

Making up the rest of the top 10 are Indonesia (566), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (556), France (530), Chad (528), Australia (494), Tanzania (465) and Japan (461).

The UK comes someway down the list with a delegation of 210.

(It is worth noting that some countries – such as Brazil – allocate some of their party badges to NGOs, which can artificially inflate the size of their official delegation.)

The smallest delegation is the one person registered to represent Nicaragua. There are five delegations of two people (North Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Slovakia).

Ahead of COP30, Latvia's climate minister, told Reuters that the country had asked if its negotiators could dial into the summit by video call. However, Latvia does not appear to have registered any delegates to attend virtually.

In total, 40 parties registered virtual delegates. Party totals are all in single figures apart from the Philippines (31), Costa Rica (21) and Turkey (16).

Changing gender balance

The UNFCCC’s participant lists typically provide a title – such as Mr, Ms, Sr or Sra – for each registered delegate. In the past, this has allowed Carbon Brief to work out the balance of men to women in the delegations that each country has sent to a COP.

(This analysis always carries the caveat that the titles are designated by UNFCCC and not by Carbon Brief. In addition, Carbon Brief recognises that gender is not best categorised using a binary “man” or “woman” label and appreciates that the UNFCCC’s lists may not be wholly accurate.)

Overall, the COP30 provisional list suggests an average gender balance of party delegations of 57% men to 43% women.

As the chart below shows, this makes COP29 the most balanced COP in history. For consistency, the COP28, COP29 and COP30 figures only include those on party badges, not overflow ones.

(Note: Since COP28 last year, the UNFCCC has also used titles that do not indicate gender – such as Dr, Prof, Ambassador and Honourable. Therefore, for this analysis, these non-gendered titles – which make up 1% of all the people at COP30, for example – have not been included.)

There are four party delegations this year that are all men – Tuvalu (three delegates), Niger (three), North Korea (two) and Nicaragua (one) – and one that is all women (Nauru, with five delegates).

The full list of COP30 party delegation sizes can be found here.

(For previous COPs, see Carbon Brief’s delegate analysis for COP21, COP23, COP24, COP25, COP26, COP27, COP28, COP29)

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The post Analysis: Which countries have sent the most delegates to COP30? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: Which countries have sent the most delegates to COP30?