In an increasingly unstable world of “strong arms and trade wars”, climate action is the “not-so-secret weapon” that can deliver security, the UN climate chief said in his first speech of the year.
Speaking in Istanbul alongside Turkiye’s COP31 president on Thursday, Simon Stiell warned that, while security is on most leaders’ lips at the moment, “many cling to a definition that is dangerously narrow”.
“For any leader who is serious about security, climate action is mission critical, as climate impacts wreak havoc on every population and economy,” he added. “Climate cooperation is an antidote to the chaos and coercion of this moment, and clean energy is the obvious solution to spiralling fossil fuel costs, both human and economic.”
Stiell’s remarks aim to reframe the global security debate at a time when climate change has slipped down the global political agenda.
Climate dropping down priority list
In much of the Western world, governments’ attention has shifted towards geopolitical tensions and spending redirected towards defence build-up following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, US President Donald Trump’s military action in Venezuela and renewed pursuit of Greenland.
Climate change has also fallen sharply in public risk perception among advanced economies, according to the Munich Security Conference’s annual survey on national threats, released ahead of the annual gathering of leaders – including those of most European nations – which starts on Friday.
In 2021, respondents in the G7 industrialised nations ranked climate change as the top risk facing their countries. This year, it has slipped to sixth place, overtaken by worries about cyberattacks, financial crises and disinformation.
By contrast, climate-related threats continue to dominate risk perceptions in major emerging economies. In China, India, Brazil and South Africa, respondents consistently rank climate change, extreme weather and forest fires among the most serious dangers facing their countries, the survey found.
“Antidote to the chaos”
The shift in sentiment comes as global temperatures are on course to breach the 1.5C warming threshold widely regarded as a critical guardrail. Scientists warn surpassing that limit would significantly increase the likelihood of more frequent and severe climate impacts worldwide, from droughts to floods and storms.
“Growing greenhouse gas pollution means escalating climate extremes fuelling famine, displacement and war,” said Stiell on Thursday, adding that “climate adaptation is the only path to securing billions of human lives, as climate impacts get rapidly worse”.
Clean energy, meanwhile, is the best way to protect energy supplies and communities from fossil fuels’ volatile costs, he added.
“The fact is renewables are the clearest, cheapest path to energy security and sovereignty – shielding countries and economies from shocks unleashed by wars, trade turmoil and the might-is-right politics that leave every nation poorer,” the UN climate chief said.
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Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, energy analysts are warning that Europe should be wary of its reliance on US gas, which has become a growing energy source across the continent following restrictions on supplies from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
Chris Aylett, research fellow at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre, said Trump’s pursuit of geopolitical energy dominance seeks to lock countries, including EU member states, into long-term oil and gas dependencies.
“During peace, this vulnerability to an unreliable – if not actively hostile – supplier would be a major constraint on Europe’s strategic autonomy,” he added. “During war it would be catastrophic”.
What role for climate diplomacy?
UN climate head Stiell met this week with officials from the Turkish and Australian governments – co-hosts of this year’s COP31 summit in Antalya – as well as Brazil’s COP30 presidency to kick-start climate diplomacy efforts for the year ahead.
The ability of UN climate negotiations to keep up with the urgency of the climate crisis is coming under increasing question. The deepening divisions seen in Belém last November have stalled meaningful progress on key issues such as the transition away from fossil fuels and climate finance.
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In his speech, Stiell acknowledged that climate cooperation is “under unprecedented threat” from those determined to use their power to increase dependency on polluting coal, oil and gas.
But climate action needs to enter a new “era of implementation” with the UN process moving closer to the real economy and countries deepening cooperation with businesses, investors and regional leaders, he added. Stiell noted he has convened experts to advise on this, and will say more about it in the months ahead.
Stiell’s remarks on the evolving UN climate regime echo the words of COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago. In a letter last month, he said climate multilateralism needs to “mature” and called for a shift to a two-speed system, where new coalitions lead fast, practical action alongside the slower, consensus-based decision-making of the annual COP climate summits.
The post Climate action is “weapon” for security in unstable world, UN climate chief says appeared first on Climate Home News.
Climate action is “weapon” for security in unstable world, UN climate chief says
Europe has been hit by a searing heatwave, which has shattered temperature records across France, Spain and the UK.
In London, for example, the mercury hit a record high for May of 35.1C at Kew Gardens on Tuesday 26 May, breaking the former record-high May temperature by more than 2C.
Multiple people have died as a result of the high temperatures, including 14 people across the UK and France who drowned.
The heatwave was driven by a “heat dome”, in which warm air moving up from northern Africa has become trapped under a high-pressure system over western Europe.
Experts have been quick to point out the link between extreme heat and global warming, with one saying it was “beyond a shadow of a doubt” that climate change was making such events “more likely and more severe”.
In this article, Carbon Brief examines the impacts of the heatwave and the role of climate change.
- What is happening with the May heatwave in Europe?
- What is driving the record-shattering heat?
- What are the impacts of the extreme heat?
- How has the media responded?
What is happening with the May heatwave in Europe?
Europe has been hit by “mind-bogglingly crazy” temperature records in May, according to the Financial Times, quoting Peter Thorne, director of the ICARUS Climate Research Centre at Maynooth University in Ireland.
In London, on Tuesday 26 May, temperatures hit a record high for May of 35.1C at Kew Gardens – breaking the previous record of 34.8C, set just the day before.
This was more than 2C above the previous May temperature high of 32.8C recorded in 1922 and again in 1944, reported the Times.
The Associated Press added that the UK capital also recorded a rare “tropical night”, when temperatures did not fall below 20C overnight.
The Daily Telegraph reported that Wales and Northern Ireland also saw record-high temperatures, of 27.4C in Cardiff and 23.4C in Armagh, on Sunday.
As with the UK record, these were quickly surpassed. BBC News reported that temperatures hit 32.9C in Bute Park, Cardiff and 24.5C in Thomastown, County Fermanagh, on Tuesday.
BBC News quoted a spokesperson from the Met Office, who said:
“This heat would be exceptional in the UK even in mid-summer, let alone in May.”
The broadcaster added that the average temperature in the UK at the end of May is usually 14-20C.
The Associated Press reported that temperature records have also fallen across Europe.
This includes in France, where temperatures reached 36C on Monday in the country’s south-west and remained above 20C at night across much of the country. The newspaper Libération declared that “it has never been so hot, so early, in France”.
The Guardian reported that the weather agency Météo France said the heatwave could last through the week and bring temperatures as high as 39C in some areas in the country.
As well as the UK and France, other nations have been seeing temperatures soar. France24 reported that temperatures in Spain were expected to reach 38C, with Italy also facing high temperatures.
The Irish Times reported that the May high-temperature record was broken twice in Ireland on the same day, with 29.7C recorded in Carlow and then 30.5C at Shannon Airport on Tuesday.
Le Monde explained that a “heat dome” of warm air from northern Africa is behind the high temperatures across Europe. (See: What is driving the record-breaking heat?)
The Financial Times quoted ICARUS’s Thorne saying that the records being set in Europe, “particularly in the UK and France, are mind-bogglingly crazy”. He added:
“We have more than 100 years of observational records. To break the all-time May record by more than 2C…is hard to comprehend.”
What is driving the record-shattering heat?
The immediate driver of the extreme heat seen over Europe this week is a “heat dome”, according to Politico.
The outlet explained that the phenomenon is driven by “warm air moving up from northern Africa [that] has become trapped under a high-pressure system over western Europe”. It added:
“The effect is similar to that of a lid on a pot, with warm air forced downward and baking affected regions with prolonged, blistering heat.”
Spain’s El Correo explained that the phenomenon is “not a simple heatwave”, adding that such “high-pressure systems trapped over Europe are not usually seen before summer”.
However, many publications have linked the severity of the extreme heat to climate change. The Associated Press quoted ICARUS’s Thorne, who said:
“We know beyond a shadow of a doubt that heatwave events such as this have been made more likely and more severe due to climate change arising from our emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.”
The Guardian quoted Dr Chloe Brimicombe, a researcher at the University of Oxford, who said:
“The record-breaking heat is a reminder of how climate change is impacting our lives in the UK. It highlights the urgency of recent calls for heat adaptation.”
France’s Le Figaro described the event as an “unequivocal sign of global warming”.
The Independent reported that the heatwave “has the fingerprints of climate change all over it”. Other outlets, including Inside Climate News and Scientific American, also covered the links between extreme heat and climate change.
BBC News noted that over the last 30 years, Europe has been warming by 0.56C per decade – more than twice the global average.
The outlet quoted Prof Erich Fischer, professor at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich in Switzerland, who compared the record-breaking temperatures to setting a new record in sports.
He explained that “if someone beats a world record in high jump, you would expect them to beat it by one centimetre and not suddenly by 20, 30 centimetres”. Similarly, he said that in the case of temperature, you would expect new records to be broken by a fraction of a degree, rather than 2 or 3C.
However, the broadcaster explained that “when a relatively rare weather system, such as this week’s heat dome, comes around in a warming climate, the margin of record can be huge”.
Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of UN Climate Change, called the heatwave a “brutal reminder of the cost of global warming”, according to Politico.
The Guardian also quotes Stiell, who said:
“The science is clear that human-induced climate change is making these heatwaves more frequent and extreme”.
What are the impacts of the extreme heat?
The heatwave has already been linked to multiple deaths.
This included seven people in France, five of whom died by drowning and two who suffered heat-related deaths while competing in sporting events, said the Guardian.
Separately, the Guardian reported that at least nine people have died in the UK from “water-related incidents” during the heatwave.
France24 reported that “restrictions on outdoor work were imposed in parts of Italy” and that “farmers reported accelerated harvests as temperatures went beyond 30C across [south-west France]”.
The Guardian reported that tennis players at the French Open were “forced to adjust their games while trying to find their best level through obvious discomfort”, amid 33C temperatures in Boulogne-Billancourt, Paris, on Monday.
CNN added that, in the UK, “a wildfire broke out near Arthur’s Seat, a hill in Edinburgh, Scotland, and hundreds of properties in south-east England were left without water as demand spiked”.
BBC News reported on a warning from a chief nurse that hospitals in the south-west of England were busier than usual amid the heatwave.
BBC News reported that the UK saw a surge in emergency calls on Tuesday. The Daily Telegraph added that “Britain’s roads started melting and rail commuters were left stranded for hours”.
Meanwhile, the Guardian reported on a warning from climate campaigners that the government “urgently” needs to start installing air conditioning units in schools and care homes.
The extreme heat has also affected Europe’s renewable energy generation. Bloomberg said that “the heat dome has blocked clouds and fueled booming solar generation”, but added that “by clearing clouds and calming the atmosphere, the heat dome has had the opposite effect on wind speeds”.
How has the media responded?
The unseasonably high temperatures have caught the attention of news outlets in the UK, France and other affected nations.
Often, news stories were accompanied by photos of people relaxing at the beach, eating ice cream and swimming in the sea.
Such images of “fun in the sun” have often drawn criticism from climate researchers for “misrepresenting” the risks of heatwaves.
This choice of imagery – and the way right-leaning newspapers in the UK tend to focus on the positive aspects of hot weather – was highlighted by journalist and media critic Mic Wright in a Substack post. He wrote:
“Most British newspapers write about extremely hot weather with the tone of a frog in a boiling pot pretending it’s a jacuzzi.”
Despite blanket news coverage of the record heat in media outlets across western Europe, there has been relatively little commentary from their opinion pages.
No major UK newspapers have published editorials about the heat and there has been no space dedicated to it in the comment sections of the largest French and Spanish newspapers.
One exception in UK media was the Daily Mail’s climate-sceptic columnist Richard Littlejohn writing an article mocking heat-safety measures and warnings issued by the Met Office and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
In contrast, the Guardian published an article by Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, warning of the dangers facing the UK as extreme heat becomes “the norm”. He wrote:
“We need, then, to face the fact that life in the 2050s is going to be very different from today, and act now. The sooner we recognise this and begin – as a nation – to prepare and adapt accordingly, the better we will be able to meet these enormous challenges to our everyday lives.”
Oliver Duff, editor-in-chief of the i newspaper, wrote that the UK is “emotionally underprepared”, as a nation, for the heat:
“Worries about climate change are forgotten in the giddy determination to enjoy our brief, unreliable summers, whichever month of the year they deign to visit.”
Writing in the Independent, journalist Kat Brown reflected on the Climate Change Committee’s recent advice to the UK government on adapting to climate change. She stressed the need to “take heatwaves seriously”.
James Wallace, chief executive of the charity River Action, was given a guest column in the Daily Express in which he wrote: “As the nation swelters in record-breaking temperatures, England is sleepwalking into a water crisis.”
In reference to water shortages and increasingly extreme weather, Wallace also emphasised that “this is climate breakdown in real time”.
The post Media reaction: UK and Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May heat and climate change appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Media reaction: UK and Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May heat and climate change
The odds of a new global temperature record being set within the next five years have increased further, as the return of the El Niño weather pattern could make 2027 the hottest year ever, the UN’s weather agency has warned.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s annual update predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record – up from 80% in last year’s forecast.
Global average temperatures reached 1.55C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, when the last El Niño event supercharged human-made warming primarily caused by the greenhouse gas emissions generated through burning fossil fuels.
El Niño to supercharge heat in 2027
Meteorologists expect El Niño – the natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean – to start developing as early as this month. Some forecasters say that this time around the event could become particularly powerful.
Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the WMO report, said the prediction of El Niño for the second half of 2026 “increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year”.
Researchers warn that a strong El Niño risks supercharging extreme weather conditions, contributing to more severe wildfires and droughts in some regions and storms and floods in others.
Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026
The UN agency says there is a 91% chance that the key 1.5C warming threshold will be temporarily exceeded again for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. An overshoot in a single year does not mean that the most ambitious global warming goal enshrined in the Paris Agreement has been lost. But the UN conceded last year that a “multi-decadal” breach is very likely to happen within the next decade.
‘Astonishing’ early heatwave in Europe
Western Europe has already been gripped by an early-season heatwave this month, with countries including the UK, France and Ireland recording their hottest May temperatures ever.
“Temperatures on this scale were once exceptional even at the height of summer,” said Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London. “Seeing 35C in the UK during spring is absolutely astonishing, but the science is very clear – climate change makes these heatwaves hotter, longer, and far more frequent”.
She added that “temperature records will continue to tumble until we fundamentally halt global emissions and reach net zero”.
In India, extreme heat in recent weeks has also threatened mango and other crops and pushed up power demand to an all-time high as people switch on air-conditioning, while pilgrims in Mecca have conducted their rituals during the annual Hajj pilgrimage in scorching temperatures.
The post El Niño expected to bring next record-hot year as soon as 2027 appeared first on Climate Home News.
El Niño expected to bring next record-hot year as soon as 2027
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