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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
China pushes back on US and EU ‘overcapacity’ complaints
‘FAIR’ COMPETITION: German chancellor Olaf Scholz and US treasury secretary Janet Yellen have visited China in the past fortnight, amid concerns regarding China’s dominance in clean-technology supply chains. Scholz commented in Shanghai that “competition must be fair” and, “in other words, that there is no dumping, that there is no overproduction, that copyrights are not infringed”, Reuters reported. Similarly, in response to a question on whether the US would place tariffs on Chinese exports, Yellen told CNBC that she “wouldn’t rule out anything at this point. We need to keep everything on the table.” Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the US-based Peterson Institute thinktank, told the Financial Times that Yellen’s visit to China seemed “like the best indicator yet that new tariffs on China will be coming, no matter who wins” the upcoming US presidential election.
WIND INVESTIGATION: Chinese premier Li Qiang told Yellen that China’s clean-technology industries “make an important contribution” to the global energy transition, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post said. Commerce minister Wang Wentao echoed this during a visit to Europe, saying that he does not understand “how the European Commission carries the banner of sustainable and green development and then takes protectionist actions”, Reuters reported. This comes as the EU opened another subsidy investigation into Chinese wind turbine companies, which will focus on windfarms in Spain, Greece, France, Romania and Bulgaria, the Financial Times said. An analysis by Reuters noted that “the supply of Chinese wind turbines for EU projects is relatively small and the European market is still dominated by domestic players”.
REACTION FROM CHINA: State news agency Xinhua reports that foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a press conference that “the notion that China’s overcapacity harms the global market is a complete fallacy”, adding “China’s leading edge in new energy is gained through strong performance and full-on market competition, not government subsidies” and “we hope relevant countries will keep an open mind, embrace fair competition”. State-run newspaper Global Times published an opinion piece by Huo Jianguo, vice chairman of the China Society for World Trade Organization Studies, saying the “rhetoric lacks logic, aimed at stymieing China’s development”. The state-run China Daily quoted Zhang Xiang, researcher at North China University of Technology, saying that the problem has been “exaggerated” and that China “should not be blamed for offering cost-effective new energy technologies”.
ANALYST REACTIONS: Nicholas Lardy, fellow at the Peterson Institute, told Reuters that he was “sceptical” about the “overcapacity” concerns, adding “if you think about it, it means every country should only produce what it consume[s] itself. That means no trade.” On Twitter, Chucheng Feng, partner at Beijing-based Hutong Research, said that China sees overcapacity arguments “as an attempt to undermine China’s ambition to be a global leader in the green transition”, meaning that they carry “more significant…implications than any previous such calls”.
China to build a ‘green financial’ system and more support for goods trade-in
‘GREEN FINANCE’: China’s central bank and six other ministries jointly issued “guiding opinions” to build a “world-leading” financial support system within five years, promoting “green and low-carbon developments”, reported Beijing News. The document calls for establishing unified standards, including “carbon accounting” methods.
EXPERT VIEWS: Luyue Tan, senior carbon analyst at LSEG, told Carbon Brief that the policy is a delayed update aimed at redesigning China’s financial policies to facilitate its “dual carbon goals”. Tan added: “This guideline connects two previously separate markets in China – green finance and carbon market – which are led by different government entities and bodies with varied focus.” The integration of the two markets will also contribute to new developments in the field, Guoqiang Qian, general manager of Chinese thinktank Sinocarbon, told Carbon Brief. He said: “The biggest problem in the Chinese carbon market is the lack of standards. The financial market could provide examples.”
TRADE-IN STANDARDS: The Chinese government announced a goal on 10 April to raise 294 environmental standards by 2025, including standards on goods trade-in and recycling, reported Xinhua. The announcement came after the release of an action plan to “promote the large-scale renewal of equipment and the trading-in of consumer goods” last month. (Read more in China Briefing from 21 March). China Daily quoted Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, saying China “will leverage central investment and central fiscal funds to offer financial support for [the policy]”. Zhao was also quoted by state-run newspaper People’s Daily where he said the promotion of equipment renewals and trade-in is the overarching policy in a new “1+N” policy grouping.
MORE TO COME: State news agency Xinhua reported that the premier Li Qiang approved the “energy saving and carbon reduction action plan for 2024-2025”, the details of which have yet to be publicly disclosed. The news agency said the plan recommends combining energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas and also emphasises the promotion of equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-ins.
Mass new coal constructed in 2023 and 300m tonnes to be reserved
NEW COAL: China accounted for 95% of the world’s newly started coal power construction activity in 2023, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM). Construction began on 70 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in China, up four-fold since 2019, compared with less than 4GW of new coal power construction starting in the rest of the world – the lowest since 2014, the report said. In addition, the construction of coal-fired power plants globally – excluding China – declined for the second year in a row. However, coal power plant retirements were also at the lowest level since 2011, the report added. Carbon Brief published an in-depth summary of the report.
RESERVE COAL: China announced plans to establish a coal production reserve system by 2027 to guarantee “supplies of [coal] to power plants” and “stabilise thermal coal prices”, according to a joint document released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA), Chinese economic outlet Yicai reported. Science and Technology Daily said that the document aims to achieve annual production of 300m tonnes of coal by 2030 for China’s reserves and to facilitate the role of coal as “a bottom-line guarantee in energy supply”. Industry outlet BJX News said that coal reserve production capacity could be used for “extreme” circumstances, such as “drastic uncertainties in the international energy market, extreme weather or sudden changes in the supply and demand situation”.
Spotlight
Interview: China Photovoltaic Industry Association on EU trade
Earlier this month, the European Commission launched investigations into two Chinese solar firms, saying “there are sufficient indications that both have been granted foreign subsidies that distort the [EU’s] internal market”.
Carbon Brief interviews Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general and spokesperson of China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), and gathers his views on the future for Chinese solar in Europe. The interview is edited for clarity and length.
CB: How important is the European market for Chinese solar firms?
Liu Yiyang: Europe is a very important solar market. According to Politico, more than 80% (about 45GW) of the newly added solar installations in Europe last year came from China. In addition, over the past year, Europe’s mainstream solar panel module prices fell from €0.3 per watt in March 2023 to €0.14/watt in April 2024. In terms of power prices, it can be said that Chinese modules have significantly reduced the cost of solar systems as well as the overall energy cost in Europe.
The European solar market and China’s solar manufacturing industry are complementary and mutually beneficial. Under the backdrop of the green energy transition, there is great potential for more solar cooperation between China and Europe.
CB: The European Commission says state subsidies may have given the Chinese solar firms an “unfair advantage” over their competitors. Do you agree? What are your thoughts on Chinese subsidies in the solar sector?
LY: In China, the central government provides no subsidies for the solar market or the solar manufacturing sector. There is a small amount of research and development funding with a modest purpose to support pilot testing and industrialisation, and technological advancement of the global solar industry. This is commonly practised across the world.
For example, in 2017, the US Department of Energy provided $46.2m in funding for 48 solar projects under its SunShot program. In August 2022, the US passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to invest more than $300bn to support renewable energy. Since then, many companies suspended their investments in Europe and instead relocated their production plans to the US. On 8 January 2024, the EU approved Germany a state aid of €902m to support a Swedish company Northvolt to establish an EV battery plant in Germany. The EU also uses subsidies to enhance its global product competitiveness.
Reuters reported that EU countries are concerned that their companies will lose out because of IRA tax credits, arguing that this violates the World Trade Organization’s principle of non-discrimination. The European Parliament explicitly stated that the IRA has been criticised for its “Buy American” style.
In summary, it is not the state subsidies in China that have given enterprises an unfair competitive edge, but rather the US through the IRA and its implementation details causes a world race for industrial policy, in breach of WTO rules.
CB: How damaging do you think the investigations will be for trade between China and the EU?
LY: We suggest that the investigation should be based on the principles of objectivity, fairness and must be supported by sufficient evidence. Groundless speculation can only harm the Sino-European trade relations and may even expand to non-solar areas.
Ungrounded countervailing investigation will also slow down the pace of Europe’s future green energy transition and even affect the realisation of the net-zero emissions target of the global energy industries.
CB: The idea of “de-risking” supply chains and “decoupling” from China has been circulating in the EU for a while now. What would it mean for global solar expansion – and efforts to tackle climate change – if decoupling succeeds?
LY: There has been plenty of talk of “de-risking” or “decoupling”. The argument is highly dubious and unclear where the so-called risks come from. China has never taken any actions, nor have we verbally sought to prevent European customers from buying Chinese solar products. The so-called risk does not make sense.
Energy, with solar as one source, is fundamental to all manufacturers. The lower the cost of energy, the greater the competitive advantage of the European manufacturing industry. China’s solar products have made a great contribution to reducing European energy costs over the past decades and we are willing to provide more help.
If “decoupling” or “derisking” is forcibly induced by external agitation, disregarding objective economic laws, the ones who stand to suffer will not only be Chinese businesses, but also European citizens and the broader European manufacturing sector. Europe has suffered from rising energy prices and inadequate energy supply for a long time. Similarly, if China and Europe cannot maintain close cooperation in the solar sector, both will face tremendous challenges in addressing climate change.
CB: In general, what do you think the future will be for the Chinese solar industry in the EU?
LY: We believe that, without unnecessary interference, the prospects for Sino-European cooperation in the solar industry are enormous. Europe can leverage its advantages in capital and technology, and China can utilise its large-scale manufacturing and industrialisation, continuously developing more efficient and more cost-effective solar products.
At the same time, as Europe has considerable experience in constructing large-scale grid with high renewable energy penetration, the two sides can cooperate on innovative power systems and virtual power plants. Sino-European cooperation in the solar industry is not only expected to benefit our two regions, but the whole world.
Watch, read, listen
CLIMATE AND FOOD PRICE: Research centre the Manchester China InstItute released a video on YouTube of Prof Tim Brook from British Columbia University, discussing how climate change affected food prices in China in the pre-industrial age.
DECARBONISATION UPDATES: David Roberts on his Volts Substack invited Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst from Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (and frequent Carbon Brief contributor), to talk about China’s recent efforts on decarbonisation.
CHINESE EV VS TESLA: The Daily podcast of the New York Times spoke to investigative reporter Mara Hvistendahl about how Elon Musk may have given Chinese EV firms the tools to “beat Tesla at its own game”.
‘STEVE JOBS’ OF CHINA: The Financial Times profiled Lei Jun, founder of Xiaomi, “an Apple copycat”. Xiaomi recently joined the EV market and launched its SU7 model, which closely resembles the Porsche Taycan, the newspaper said.
Chinese loans to African nations have declined steadily from a peak of $23bn in 2016, according to a report by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center and the African Economic Research Consortium. Around one-third of all Chinese loans between 2000 and 2022 – some $134bn – were in the energy sector, the report adds, with $26bn during this period going to fossil fuel projects. However, no new fossil fuel loans have been issued since 2019.
New science
Carbon emissions trading policy and climate injustice: A study on economic distributional impacts
Energy
A new study analysed the impact of China’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) on the distribution of “benefits and responsibilities” among the local economies of different Chinese cities. It concluded that the implementation of the ETS improves GDP, on average, but can also harm innovation and foreign investments in cities. In addition, the researchers noted that the policy has the potential to “enlarge the gap between developed and developing areas”.
Forest carbon storage and sink estimates under different management scenarios in China from 2020 to 2100
Science of the Total Environment
A new study employed three tree-growth models – the Richard, Hossfeld and Korf models – to evaluate the carbon sink potential of existing forests and afforestation in China from 2020 to 2100. The study estimated that in 2020, the carbon stored in China’s forests reached 7.62bn tonnes of carbon, equivalent to 28bn tonnes of carbon dioxide. It further suggests that by 2100, 19.59bn tonnes of carbon could be stored.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 18 April: Clean-tech ‘overcapacity’; New coal construction; Interview with China Photovoltaic Industry Association appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Claver Gatete is Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa. Jason Veysey is Energy Modeling Program Director and Senior Scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute. Lisa Sachs is Director of the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment at Columbia University.
The case for global energy transition has rarely been clearer. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year exposed the cost of unplanned, fossil-dependent systems, while the falling cost of renewables, the rising penetration of electric vehicles, and the growing value of demand flexibility have made the direction of travel obvious. The benefits of a clean, secure, integrated system are no longer in dispute. What remains unclear is how to build it.
Countries around the world have called for faster renewable energy deployment and alternative energy arrangements. A secure, affordable, resilient, decarbonised system requires specific investments in specific places in a specific sequence, optimised across sectors and borders. But very few governments have the analytical foundation to translate those imperatives into investment.
The two instruments that are supposed to determine investment priorities for decarbonisation – Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and country platforms – cannot answer the most basic question facing any country undertaking an energy transition: what should the energy system look like?
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New coal mine openings slow as East Asian demand plateaus
China and Australia drove global decline in new capacity additions in 2025, but planned production kept growing
To close this gap, every country needs a bankable, economy-wide optimisation model for its energy system. A model is not a plan, but it can help answer the critical question of what the future energy system should look like. It shows how optimal scenarios vary as assumptions and policies are adjusted, calculates investment requirements and sequencing, and quantifies how system costs are affected by assumptions, policies, and exogenous variables like trade policy and financing terms.
Tool for efficient investment
Optimisation is a simplified way of simulating an energy system, but it can be an extremely powerful tool for moving energy planning from reactive (how do we manage the disparate actions in the energy system?) to intentional (what energy system underpins our national objectives?). A model can show how optimal scenarios vary as assumptions and policies are adjusted, and how investment requirements are quantified and sequenced.
Optimisation models can treat the energy system and the sectors it serves as an integrated whole, optimising across sectors and projects in ways that can be mutually reinforcing. If considered independently, growth in industrial demand, transport electrification, and digital infrastructure can add stress to the energy system. But an optimised plan can arrange these and other changes in an efficient, synergistic way.
Two to tango: How governments can unlock private investment for national climate goals
New load can be added where low-cost power is available; industrial customers can ensure the viability of investments in energy supply; electric vehicle charging policy can smooth load curves and reduce costs for all consumers.
Additionally, optimisation modeling can also change the financeability of investments. Taken alone, each project faces uncertainty about the rest of the system, which raises the cost of capital and causes projects to stall or unwind after contracts are signed. A coherent, optimised plan makes visible the coordination that private capital would otherwise have to bet on: identified offtake, sequenced and committed transmission, contracted power supply, and so on.
What COP31 and COP32 should do
The upcoming COPs in Turkey and Ethiopia can shift the center of gravity of international climate cooperation from fragmented commitments to planning. Three moves are urgently needed.
First, optimised, economy-wide, long-term energy system planning must be the foundation on which any meaningful NDC, country platform, or finance commitment rests. NDCs are typically drafted by environment or single-line ministries, with limited cross-sectoral input from ministries of energy, finance, and planning. They contain targets, derived from sectoral strategies or national commitments, not from an analytically grounded picture of what the energy system should look like and what investments would make it work. Country platforms are generally a portfolio of investments assembled from existing project pipelines, rather than derived from a system-level analysis of what an optimised, decarbonised energy system would require.
Second, recognise regions as a key planning unit. Modern integrated energy systems are inherently regional. Renewable endowments are unevenly distributed; balancing variable supply across borders lowers aggregate cost, reduces redundant backup capacity, and unlocks economies of scale no individual nation can achieve. Many energy investments in Southeast Asia, East Africa, Southern Africa and Central Asia may only be financeable in a regional context. Assessing domestic infrastructure without regional optimisation perpetuates the perception that decarbonisation is more expensive than it is.
COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification
Third, finance the planning capacity. A coordinated commitment by multilateral development banks, bilateral donors, and philanthropic partners to help every region and its constituent countries develop and maintain their own modelling capability, with open-source tools and regional analytical hubs, would close the most consequential gap in the current architecture. The cost is small relative to current spending on country platforms, failed project preparation, and misallocated infrastructure investment.
This includes supporting regional institutions such as the ASEAN Centre for Energy, the African Energy Commission, regional power pools, and the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Organization to determine what optimised regional systems require. Country-by-country pledging, repeated at every COP, will not deliver what meaningfully integrated systems can.
The 2026 energy crisis made the cost of unplanned, fossil-dependent systems newly visible. That window of clarity will close. The international community should seize the moment to build the planning foundation that has been missing for thirty years, rather than commissioning another round of NDCs or pledges, striving for outcomes neither was designed to deliver.
The post Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition
The world is currently experiencing what is expected to become the strongest El Niño on record – dubbed a “super El Niño” by many.
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere.
This temporarily raises global temperatures and reshapes rainfall and extreme weather around the world – impacting the lives of billions of people.
The current El Niño event began in June and is expected to last into 2027.
El Niño is part of a wider climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
The ENSO cycle also has a cool phase, known as La Niña, as well as a “neutral” phase. El Niño and La Niña events typically last between nine and 12 months, but can go on longer.
Below, Carbon Brief explains how the ENSO cycle works, its impacts on extreme weather and global temperatures and why this El Niño event is projected to be the most intense since records began.
The post Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-explainer/index.html
The second-largest reservoir in the US reached a record-low water height on Saturday – just days after the country’s largest reservoir broke its own record.
Both Lake Mead and Lake Powell are located on the Colorado River.
They provide water for populations across seven US states in the south-western US, with around 40 million people getting some or all of their municipal water from the Colorado River.
The river also provides water for around 5.5m acres (22,258 square kilometres) of farmland across Colorado, Arizona, California and the other states in the river basin.
Experts tell Carbon Brief that climate change, population growth and over-consumption are all contributing to the current record-low levels of the reservoirs.
Record lows
At full capacity, Lakes Mead and Powell can hold a combined 68 cubic kilometres of water – enough to supply all household consumption in the contiguous US for nearly 1.5 years. However, the water level in both reservoirs has been declining for decades.
The chart below shows the water level of Lake Mead, in metres above mean sea level. The reservoir, which began to fill in 1935 following the construction of the Hoover Dam, has a “full pool” maximum capacity of 347.60 metres. The water level in Lake Mead reached a record low of 317.11 metres on 7 August.
The following chart shows the water level of Lake Powell, in metres above mean sea level. Lake Powell’s full-pool level is 1,127.76 metres.
While the reservoir reached its maximum capacity several times in the 1980s, it has not done so since. On 15 August, the water level in Lake Powell was recorded at a new record-low of 1,072.87 metres.
Both reservoirs have continued to decline in the days since breaking their respective records. The downward trend will largely continue in both lakes until next spring, when the snowpack in the mountains of the Upper Colorado River Basin begins to melt, says Dr Jack Schmidt, a senior research scientist at Utah State University’s Center for Colorado River Studies. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The big dilemma of the moment is that we’re only in the middle of August, and we have no assurance of what the coming winter will be. The only thing we can be sure of is that we will be depleting overall total basin reservoir storage from now until, roughly, early April.”
Compounding factors
The record lows across the two reservoirs are the result of several compounding factors, experts tell Carbon Brief.
Since the turn of the 20th century, the amount of water flowing along the Upper Colorado River has declined by about 20%. Research suggests that half of this decline can be attributed to human-induced climate change.
Most of the river’s streamflow comes from the snowpack of the Upper Colorado River Basin, which stretches across five western US states but is primarily located in Colorado and Utah.
This region has been gripped by a historic “megadrought” for more than a quarter of a century. Nearly half of the megadrought’s intensity over 2000-18 is attributable to climate change, according to a 2020 study.
At the same time, the increasing population in the US south-west has put added pressure on the Colorado River’s water supply. The number of people obtaining some or all of their water from the Colorado system has grown by 15 million (around 60%) since 1992.
Schmidt tells Carbon Brief:
“There’s an ultimate cause of the present water crisis, and there’s a proximate cause. The ultimate cause is a warming climate, a warming planet and a pretty clear correlation between warming conditions and decreased runoff in the Colorado River Basin.
“The proximate cause is that in this messy democratic republic of ours, big policy decisions that match the variability of the climate occur painfully slowly – with intense political negotiations – and only incrementally.”
On 31 July, the US Bureau of Reclamation, which manages water resources in the western US, released an environmental impact statement on its proposed post-2026 strategy for managing Lakes Powell and Mead. The strategy itself has not been released yet.
Schmidt notes that the statement does appear to give the Bureau flexibility to “respond to crisis” by reducing the delivery of water to several states. However, he adds:
“They acknowledge it won’t work if we just stay critically dry, and of course every climate model for the 21st century, especially with a continually warming planet, says that that’s exactly what’s going to happen.”
The post Analysis: The two largest reservoirs in the US have hit record-low levels appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: The two largest reservoirs in the US have hit record-low levels
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