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The rise in global temperatures is a concern that many are taking seriously. Governments, big companies, small businesses, and everyday people are looking for ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to lessen climate change risks. One method that’s gaining a lot of attention is using carbon credits. This idea helps provide financial rewards for those who cut down on emissions and support the growth of clean energy sources. This article is the 5th part of our new series based on our 2023 Climate Change and Carbon Markets Annual Report. The series so far includes:

In this post, we’re going to explore the journey of carbon credits from the start with the Kyoto Protocol to now with the Paris Agreement. We’ll look at how global agreements on climate have evolved and how carbon credits play a crucial part in these. Through this discussion, we hope to give a clear picture of how the world is working together to create a sustainable environment for the future.

The Kyoto Protocol: Setting the Stage for Carbon Credits

The Kyoto Protocol, established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1997, marked the inception of formalized global efforts to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This landmark treaty set forth binding emissions reduction targets for 37 industrialized nations and the European Union, aiming to reduce emissions to 5% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. A subsequent amendment in 2012 extended these targets to 2013-2020. Central to the Kyoto Protocol was the innovative concept of carbon credits, designed to provide economic incentives for emissions reductions. The Protocol introduced Emissions Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI), laying the foundation for the global carbon credit framework (see: https://unfccc.int/news/kyoto-protocol-paves-the-way-for-greater-ambition-under-paris-agreement#:~:text=,like%20Germany%20by%2030%20percent).

Key facts:

  • The Kyoto Protocol committed developed countries to emissions reduction targets of 5% below 1990 levels between 2008-2012. This was later extended to 2013-2020 with an amended treaty.
  • The innovative mechanisms introduced included Emissions Trading, CDM, and JI which provided the blueprint for carbon credits trading.

Paris Agreement: A New Dawn in Global Climate Cooperation

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, emerged as a robust successor to the Kyoto Protocol, reflecting a global shift towards more inclusive and ambitious climate action. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, which placed binding targets on developed countries alone, the Paris Agreement encourages all nations to contribute towards global emissions reduction. This inclusive framework aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with an ambition of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The Paris Agreement introduced the Sustainable Development Mechanism (SDM), poised to replace the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), signifying a transformation in the realm of carbon credits and setting a new trajectory for global environmental strategies (see: https://greencoast.org/kyoto-protocol-vs-paris-agreement).

Key facts:

  • The Paris Agreement set a more ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to the Kyoto Protocol’s 2°C target.
  • It has a universal framework encouraging all countries to contribute, unlike the Kyoto Protocol’s binding targets just for developed nations.
  • Introduced the SDM to replace the CDM, reflecting an evolution in carbon credits post-Kyoto.

Why Some Countries Opted Out: Economic and Strategic Considerations

The Kyoto Protocol faced resistance from some major emitting countries due to concerns surrounding economic competitiveness and equity. The U.S., citing potential economic drawbacks and the lack of binding commitments on developing countries, chose not to ratify the Protocol. Canada withdrew in 2011, expressing concerns over the Protocol’s ability to effectively address global emissions without the participation of major emitters like the U.S. and China. These decisions underscored the complex interplay of economic, strategic, and environmental considerations that influence international climate agreements and the operationalization of carbon credits (see: https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/news-insights/lessons-learned-from-kyoto-to-paris).

Key facts:

  • The U.S. and Canada opted out due to concerns over economic impacts and equity without developing nations’ commitments.
  • Highlights the strategic considerations alongside environmental ones in climate agreements.

Carbon Credits – A Mechanism to Meet Targets

The Kyoto Protocol introduced pioneering mechanisms like Emissions Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI) to help nations meet their emissions reduction targets. These mechanisms provided the blueprint for the evolution of the carbon credit system, allowing for the trading of emission allowances and fostering international collaboration on carbon sequestration projects. The Paris Agreement further refined these mechanisms, introducing the Sustainable Development Mechanism (SDM) to build upon the successes and lessons learned from the Kyoto-era mechanisms, thereby enhancing the global carbon credit framework.

Key facts:

  • Emissions Trading, CDM, and JI were introduced under Kyoto as innovative ways to meet reduction targets.
  • Paris Agreement’s SDM builds on these mechanisms to further improve the carbon credits system.

The Decline of the CDM: Transitioning to a New Era

With the advent of the Paris Agreement, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) saw a decline in prominence as the Sustainable Development Mechanism (SDM) emerged. This transition reflects the global community’s adaptive approach to evolving environmental challenges. The SDM, with its broader scope and enhanced flexibility, aims to address the shortcomings of the CDM, offering a more robust framework for carbon credit initiatives. The shift from CDM to SDM signifies a continued evolution in the mechanisms governing carbon credits, aligning with the ambitious global climate goals set forth by the Paris Agreement.

Key facts:

  • The CDM is being replaced by the more robust SDM under Paris reflecting an adaptive approach.
  • SDM has a wider scope and flexibility compared to CDM.

Challenges in Participation: Navigating Global Climate Dynamics

The participation challenges faced by the Kyoto Protocol highlight the complexities inherent in global climate agreements. Major emitters like the U.S. and China’s reluctance to commit to binding emissions reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol underscored the need for a more inclusive approach. The Paris Agreement, with its universal framework for climate action, addresses some of these challenges by encouraging all nations, regardless of their economic status, to contribute towards global emissions reduction. However, the nuances of national and global priorities continue to influence the level of participation and commitment to carbon credit initiatives.

Key facts:

  • Universal participation under Paris was designed to address the lack of major emitters’ commitment under Kyoto.
  • National interests still impact countries’ levels of commitment to climate agreements.

The Role of the International Transaction Log (ITL): Ensuring Transparency and Accountability

The International Transaction Log (ITL) plays a crucial role in the operationalization of carbon credits by ensuring transparency, accountability, and efficiency in carbon credit transactions. Established by the Secretariat of the Conference of Parties, the ITL meticulously records carbon credit transactions, preventing potential issues like double-counting of reductions or the sale of identical credits multiple times. The ITL, by bridging national emissions trading registries and the UNFCCC, exemplifies the global commitment to a transparent and accountable carbon credit system, underpinning the credibility of international emissions trading initiatives.

Key facts:

  • The ITL prevents double-counting and ensures transparency in carbon credits trading.
  • It bridges national registries and UNFCCC to enable international cooperation.

Risks and Mitigation in Carbon Credit Projects: Ensuring Viability and Sustainability

Carbon credit projects, inherent with regulatory and market risks, necessitate robust mitigation strategies to ensure their viability and sustainability. The complexities of regulatory approvals, monitoring actual emissions, and navigating volatile market dynamics pose challenges to carbon credit projects. Leveraging approved CDM technologies and entering into long-term fixed-price contracts can significantly reduce these risks. The evolving carbon credit framework, transitioning from CDM to SDM under the Paris Agreement, reflects a continued effort to address these risks and enhance the sustainability of carbon credit projects.

Key facts:

  • Regulatory and market risks pose viability challenges for carbon credit projects.
  • CDM methodologies and long-term contracts help mitigate risks.

Controversies in Land Use Projects: Navigating Carbon Sequestration Challenges

Land use projects under the Kyoto Protocol aimed at GHG removals and emissions reductions through activities like afforestation and reforestation. However, they faced resistance due to challenges in estimating and tracking GHG removals over extended periods. The complexities of measuring carbon sequestration, particularly in vast forested areas, underscore the controversies and challenges inherent in the carbon credits domain. The Paris Agreement, with its enhanced framework for carbon credit initiatives, offers avenues to address some of these challenges, promoting a more robust and transparent approach to land use projects within the carbon credits framework.

Key facts:

  • Estimating and monitoring carbon sequestration from land use projects is complex.
  • Caused controversies under Kyoto but Paris Agreement provides scope to improve.

Conclusion – Carbon Credits and the Evolution of Global Climate Strategy

The journey of carbon credits, from the early days of the Kyoto Protocol to the transformative era of the Paris Agreement, offers a window into the world’s evolving approach to climate change mitigation. The innovative mechanisms introduced under these agreements have played a pivotal role in shaping the global carbon credit framework. As nations continue to navigate the complex landscape of global climate cooperation, understanding the intricacies of carbon credits remains pivotal in the collective quest for a sustainable future. Through the lens of carbon credits, we witness the global community’s adaptive strategies in the face of evolving environmental challenges, charting a course towards a more sustainable and resilient global climate framework.

Sources and References:

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Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash

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Nuclear’s Next Chapter: newcleo Raises $88M to Scale SMR Powered by Nuclear Waste

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Nuclear’s Next Chapter: newcleo Raises $88M to Scale SMR Powered by Nuclear Waste

newcleo, a European nuclear technology company, announced that it has raised €75 million (about USD $88 million) in a new funding round. The cash will help the company build and develop advanced small nuclear reactors powered by recycled nuclear waste. The financing is a sign of growing investor interest in clean and low-carbon energy solutions.

Newcleo also said that it has now raised more than $124 million in total for 2025. The company was founded in September 2021 and is based in Paris, France. The nuclear energy developer also operates in Italy, the UK, Belgium, and Slovakia, with roughly 1,000 employees.

What newcleo’s Technology Does: Turning Nuclear Waste into Usable Fuel

newcleo develops a type of advanced nuclear technology known as lead-cooled fast reactors (LFRs). These reactors are a form of small modular reactor (SMR).

Unlike traditional nuclear reactors that use fresh uranium fuel, newcleo’s design aims to use reprocessed nuclear waste as fuel. This means existing waste from older reactors could become a power source.

Using nuclear waste as fuel is intended to have two benefits:

  • It could reduce long-term waste storage needs.
  • It may help lower the carbon footprint of nuclear power.

Lead-cooled fast reactors also use liquid lead to transfer heat out of the core. The liquid lead acts as a coolant and enables the reactor to operate at high temperatures without high pressure.

This reactor type is still under development and not yet in wide commercial operation. But companies like newcleo believe it could play a role in future clean energy systems.

Heavy Industry and Investors Double Down

The €75 million funding round brought in both new and existing investors. New industrial backers included heavy industry groups such as:

  • Danieli & C, a steel mill manufacturer
  • Cementir Holding, a cement and concrete producer
  • Orion Valves, an industrial valve maker
  • NextChem, an energy engineering firm

Existing financial backers also participated. These included Kairos, Indaco Ventures, Azimut Investments, the CERN pension fund, and Walter Tosto (industrial engineering).

The mix of industrial and financial investors shows that newcleo’s technology draws interest from companies looking for reliable, low-carbon power and firms focused on clean energy investments.

Scaling from Design to Deployment

newcleo said the fresh funding will support several key parts of its business. The company highlighted progress in:

  • Licensing and regulatory approval processes
  • Research and development (R&D) of reactors and fuel systems
  • Vertical integration of technology and manufacturing
  • Geographic expansion in key markets like Europe and the United States

This means newcleo is working not just on reactor design, but on building the skills and facilities needed to support production, testing, and commercial deployment. The company also has partnerships and projects in multiple countries, including France, Italy, Slovakia, and the U.S. These collaborations relate to licensing and siting work, research facilities, and future commercial reactor projects.

Closing the Nuclear Fuel Loop

Nuclear power is often seen as a low-carbon energy source because it produces virtually no direct CO₂ emissions during operation. However, it leaves behind radioactive waste that can remain hazardous for thousands of years.

nuclear carbon emission
Carbon Footprint of Various Energy Sources

Traditional reactors use uranium fuel once and store the resulting waste. newcleo’s approach aims to reuse existing waste as reactor fuel. This could potentially reduce the volume and hazard of waste that needs long-term storage.

Lead-cooled fast reactors are one class of Generation IV nuclear technology. These designs are intended to be safer and more efficient than older reactors. They can run on fuels that traditional reactors cannot and may help make nuclear energy more sustainable in the long term.

Using recycled radioactive fuel helps close the nuclear fuel cycle. This means sourcing more energy from mined uranium, which leaves less waste behind.

Building a Cross-Border Nuclear Footprint

newcleo has stated that it plans to roll out its technology in several countries with active regulatory frameworks for advanced nuclear projects. The company has started licensing and planning partnerships in Europe and the U.S. These moves aim to make it a major supplier of advanced nuclear power systems.

In France, newcleo is preparing regulatory filings for both fuel and reactor projects. In Italy, it is building R&D infrastructure and test systems, while in Slovakia, it has formed a joint venture to deploy multiple reactors at a nuclear site. And in the U.S., it is engaging in collaborations to build fuel manufacturing and fabrication capabilities.

The company’s CEO, Stefano Buono, said investors view newcleo’s progress in licensing, R&D, and global expansion as a key advantage. He further added,

“Our ability to deliver impactful low-carbon energy solutions for energy-intensive firms is proving an attractive investment rationale for both industrial and financial investors. Our tangible progress in licensing, R&D, vertical integration, and geographic expansion is seen by investors as a key differentiator in the race to deliver clean, safe, and affordable nuclear energy.”

Small Modular Reactors Gain Global Traction

Interest in small modular reactors is rising as countries look for reliable, low-carbon power. Governments and industry groups also track SMRs more closely than before.

One sign is the growing number of designs in development. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) reported that its latest SMR Dashboard found 98 SMR technologies globally. It detailed 56 of these SMRs in its dashboard set.

A separate NEA summary shows a larger count of designs tracked over editions. This highlights how quickly the pipeline is expanding.

  • Forecasts also show wider deployment in the coming decades. The International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes scenario data on global SMR capacity from 2025 to 2050.

In its analysis, SMR capacity rises from near-zero today to tens of gigawatts by 2050 in its main scenarios (39 GW), and it grows even higher in its “high SMR” case (190 GW). This suggests that SMRs could move from pilot projects to meaningful scale if costs fall and licensing speeds up.

SMR Global Installed Capacity by Scenario and Case, 2025-2050 IEA data
Data from the IEA; STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario; APS = Announced Pledges Scenario; NZE = Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.

International institutions also expect nuclear growth overall, with SMRs playing a bigger role. In September 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it raised its long-term nuclear outlook again.

In its best-case scenario, the IAEA predicts that global nuclear capacity could grow to 2.6 times the 2024 level by 2050. It also noted that SMRs will be key to this growth.

Policy signals further support this direction. The NEA reports that over 20 countries at COP28 pledged to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050.

These forecasts do not guarantee fast deployment. SMRs still face key hurdles such as licensing timelines, supply chains, fuel availability, and first-of-a-kind costs. 

SMRs are increasingly central to global nuclear talks. The NEA tracks more designs, and the IEA outlines new deployment pathways. And interest from investors and policymakers has grown as countries look for reliable low-carbon baseload power.

The €75 million funding round adds to newcleo’s growing capital base. It boosts the company’s ability to advance its technology and work toward deployment. As of early 2026, newcleo has raised more than $124 million over the past year, with total funding since 2021 likely exceeding €645 million.

Private Capital Signals a Nuclear Comeback

The investment in newcleo highlights a broader trend: private capital is moving into advanced nuclear technologies.

Investors in heavy industry and finance are now seeing nuclear power as key to global decarbonization efforts. Some countries have recently updated their policies. This supports nuclear research and licensing. It shows a focus on energy security and climate goals.

Lead-cooled fast reactors and similar designs remain in early stages of testing and regulatory review. Newcleo and similar companies think their technologies can provide clean, reliable power. They also believe these systems create less waste over their life cycles compared to older reactors.

If successful, this approach could expand the role of nuclear power in the energy transition. But much work remains in testing, licensing, manufacturing, and cost reduction before commercial deployment at scale.

The post Nuclear’s Next Chapter: newcleo Raises $88M to Scale SMR Powered by Nuclear Waste appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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TotalEnergies and Google’s 1 GW Solar Deal Signals a New Phase in the Data Center Energy Race

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TotalEnergies has signed two long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Google to deliver 1 gigawatt (GW) of solar capacity in Texas. Over 15 years, the projects are expected to generate around 28 terawatt-hours (TWh) of renewable electricity.

The deal reflects a deeper shift in how the tech sector secures power for artificial intelligence, cloud services, and digital infrastructure. As AI workloads surge, electricity has become a strategic resource, and companies like Google are moving early to lock in supply.

The projects will be developed at two TotalEnergies-owned sites—Wichita and Mustang Creek—with construction scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2026. Once operational, they will directly support Google’s growing data center footprint in Texas.

Texas: A Crucial Hub for Big Tech Power Demand

Texas has emerged as one of the world’s most important regions for data center expansion. Its abundant land, strong solar resources, and deregulated power market make it attractive for hyperscale data centers. However, demand is rising rapidly, and the grid is under pressure from AI-driven electricity loads, industrial expansion, and extreme weather events.

texas data centres
Source: AXIOS

The Wichita solar farm, with a capacity of 805 megawatts (MW), and the Mustang Creek project, with 195 MW, together form one of TotalEnergies’ largest U.S. renewable commitments to a single corporate buyer. These projects will add new generation capacity rather than simply reallocating existing renewable energy credits, which is critical for grid stability.

By building new supply, TotalEnergies and Google are addressing a major challenge facing the power sector: ensuring that clean electricity growth keeps pace with surging demand.

Corporate PPAs Are Now Shaping America’s Power Grid

Power purchase agreements were once seen as a financial tool for companies to claim renewable energy use. Today, they are becoming a core driver of grid expansion. Large corporate buyers are effectively acting as anchor investors for new energy infrastructure.

In this case, the 1 GW of solar PPAs complement another 1.2 GW of agreements recently secured by Clearway, a renewables developer half-owned by TotalEnergies. These deals span multiple U.S. grid regions, including ERCOT in Texas, PJM in the Northeast, and SPP in the Central U.S.

Together, these agreements illustrate how tech firms are diversifying their energy supply across regions to manage risk, hedge against price volatility, and ensure reliability.

Local Economic Impact and Community Benefits

Beyond climate goals, large-scale solar projects bring tangible economic benefits to local communities. The Wichita and Mustang Creek developments are expected to create several hundred construction jobs and generate significant tax revenues over their operating lifetimes.

For rural counties, utility-scale solar projects often become a long-term source of public funding for schools, infrastructure, and emergency services. As data centers expand into smaller communities, energy projects linked to them can transform local economies.

TotalEnergies’ Strategy: Tailored Power for High-Load Customers

TotalEnergies is positioning itself as a key energy partner for industries with massive and growing electricity needs. Its customer portfolio already includes major industrial and technology players such as Amazon, Microsoft, Airbus, Air Liquide, STMicroelectronics, Saint-Gobain, and Sasol.

The company’s approach goes beyond simple renewable supply. It combines solar, wind, battery storage, and flexible gas generation to deliver what it calls “clean firm power.” This hybrid model is increasingly important for data centers, which require 24/7 electricity with minimal interruptions.

Marc-Antoine Pignon, TotalEnergies’ Vice President for Renewables in the U.S., highlighted that the Google deal is the company’s largest renewable PPA volume ever signed in the country. He also pointed to the challenges of land availability and power supply for data centers, noting that large-scale colocation opportunities are becoming essential as AI infrastructure expands.

A Growing U.S. and Global Renewable Portfolio

TotalEnergies has been steadily expanding its renewable footprint. In the United States, it holds around 10 GW of onshore solar, wind, and storage capacity, with roughly 5 GW located in Texas. Globally, the company had more than 32 GW of installed renewable capacity by late 2025 and aims to produce over 100 TWh of net electricity by 2030.

total energies renewable portfolio
Source: TotalEnergies

This growth reflects a broader strategy to transition from a traditional oil and gas company into a diversified energy producer. By investing heavily in renewables and flexible assets, TotalEnergies is positioning itself for a future where electricity plays a central role in the global energy mix.

EARLIER: 

Google’s Aggressive Clean Energy Procurement Drive

Google is one of the world’s largest corporate buyers of renewable energy, and its procurement strategy has accelerated dramatically in recent years. Since 2010, the company has signed more than 170 clean energy agreements totaling over 22 GW of capacity. These deals span North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Latin America.

google data centre electricity consumption
Source: Google

In 2024 alone, Google contracted more than 8 GW of additional clean energy—twice the volume of the previous year and the largest annual total in its history. These agreements are designed to stay ahead of the company’s rapid load growth, particularly from AI and cloud services.

google data center emissions
Source: Google

Despite a 27% year-on-year increase in data center electricity consumption in 2024, Google reported a 12% reduction in data center energy emissions.

  • It estimates that its clean energy purchases avoided more than 8.2 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2024 and over 44 million tonnes cumulatively since 2011.

This shows that large-scale procurement can decouple emissions growth from electricity demand, at least in the near term.

Data Centers Are Reshaping Electricity Demand

The International Energy Agency (IEA )’s latest electricity report has highlighted data centers as a major driver of electricity demand growth in the United States. Electricity consumption rose by 2.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, with data centers expected to account for nearly half of future growth.

Industrial sectors such as semiconductor manufacturing and battery production will also contribute significantly, but digital infrastructure is among the fastest-growing loads.

AI workloads are particularly energy-intensive. Training large models requires massive, continuously running computing clusters, while inference workloads scale with user demand. This creates a constant, high-load electricity profile that challenges traditional grid planning.

2026 US Renewable Outlook and Policy Headwinds

The IEA also forecasts that nearly 250 GW of renewable energy capacity will be deployed in the U.S. between 2026 and 2030, with utility-scale solar accounting for around 70% of additions. Wind and distributed solar will make up the remainder.

However, recent policy changes and the phase-out of certain tax incentives have led to a downward revision of deployment forecasts. This underscores the growing importance of corporate buyers in sustaining renewable development.

When government support weakens, long-term PPAs from companies like Google provide the financial certainty developers need to build projects. In this sense, tech firms are becoming critical enablers of the energy transition.

iea 2026 us electricty demand

A New Power Paradigm for the Digital Age

The TotalEnergies and Google solar agreement states that electricity is no longer just an operating expense. It is a strategic asset that determines the scalability and sustainability of digital infrastructure.

For TotalEnergies, the deal reinforces its role as a key supplier of tailored renewable power to high-load customers. For Google, it ensures reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity for its expanding AI and cloud operations.

More broadly, the partnership reflects a new phase in the global energy transition, where private companies play a central role in financing and building clean power infrastructure. As AI, cloud computing, and digital services continue to expand, similar mega-scale PPAs are likely to become standard practice.

Lastly, but not least, Texas is becoming a global test case for high-growth, low-carbon grids. Its rapid demand growth, combined with large renewable deployment, will offer lessons for other regions facing similar challenges.

The post TotalEnergies and Google’s 1 GW Solar Deal Signals a New Phase in the Data Center Energy Race appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Nigeria Aims for 80 Million Clean Cookstoves and a $5 Billion Carbon Credit Revenue

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Nigeria Aims for 80 Million Clean Cookstoves and a $5 Billion Carbon Credit Revenue

Nigeria is planning a large clean cooking program that aims to distribute 80 million efficient cookstoves to households. Project backers say the rollout could help reduce smoke from cooking, cut pressure on forests, and create a new stream of carbon credits.

Recent reporting in Nigeria says the project is also tied to a revenue target. A senior finance executive at project developer GreenPlinth Africa said the Federal Government could earn up to $5 billion each year from “verified carbon credit revenues” when the program reaches full scale.

Lagos State has also described itself as an early “anchor” for the program. Lagos State Government announced it will lead the way in providing 6 million free cookstoves. Distribution in the state has started in June 2025, beginning in Makoko.

Mr. Tunde Lemo, former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, commented:

“This is not a pilot. It is not a promise. It is a nationally endorsed, structured, and scalable intervention…This is one of the most ambitious clean cooking and household energy transition programmes ever undertaken globally.”

An 80 Million Stove Rollout With National Ambitions

Lagos State’s climate office describes the initiative as a nationwide effort to deploy 80 million efficient cookstoves free of charge. It says the goal is to sharply reduce traditional firewood use for women and low-income households.

Large stove programs usually try to replace or improve traditional cooking methods that produce heavy smoke indoors. In many households, cooking uses wood, charcoal, or other solid fuels. These fuels can release fine particles and other pollutants, especially in kitchens with poor airflow.

The Clean Cooking Alliance’s Nigeria dashboard uses official sources like the World Bank. It estimates that over 167 million people, or 73.8%, in Nigeria did not have access to clean cooking in 2023.

That gap is wider outside cities. The same dashboard reports that 26.2% of Nigeria’s population had access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking in 2023. It also reports 48.7% access in urban areas versus 9.7% in rural areas in 2023.

Cooking Smoke as a Public Health Crisis

Global health agencies link household smoke from cooking to major health harms. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that household air pollution led to around 2.9 million deaths in 2021. This includes more than 309,000 children under age 5.

WHO also estimates that household air pollution caused about 95 million DALYs in 2021. This measure combines years lost to early death and disability. The organization notes that the health burden is tied to diseases such as heart disease, stroke, and lung disease.

Moreover, a WHO technical page shows how household air pollution causes deaths. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Ischaemic heart disease: 32%
  • Stroke: 23%
  • Lower respiratory infections: 21%
  • COPD: 19%
  • Lung cancer: 6%

Global energy data also shows the scale of the challenge. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates 2.3 billion people worldwide still cook using open fires or basic stoves that create harmful smoke.

In Nigeria, a large stove program could affect health most in communities that rely heavily on fuelwood or charcoal. It could also change how much time families spend collecting fuel. It could lower daily smoke exposure for cooks and nearby children when stoves are used correctly and consistently.

From Kitchen Emissions to Carbon Markets

The project narrative links emissions cuts from cleaner cooking to carbon markets. Carbon crediting usually relies on measuring and verifying how much a project cuts greenhouse gas emissions compared to a baseline.

International rules also matter if the project aims to generate credits for compliance uses under the Paris Agreement. Under Article 6, countries can cooperate to meet climate targets, including through carbon credits created from verified emission reductions.

Within Article 6, the Article 6.4 mechanism (also called the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism) has a UN-backed governance structure. UNFCCC explains that an Article 6.4 Supervisory Body develops and supervises requirements to run the mechanism. This includes approving methodologies, registering activities, accrediting verification bodies, and managing a registry.

This matters because cookstove projects often face scrutiny over real-world use. Carbon credit quality can depend on factors like whether households actually use the new stove, how long they keep using it, and whether old stoves stay in use at the same time. Credible monitoring and verification are central to project integrity under any crediting pathway.

IEA clean cooking projection 2030
Source: IEA

The IEA predicts that clean cooking access will hit around 85% by 2030. This means over 350 million people, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, will still lack safe cooking options. They will continue to rely on polluting open fires and basic stoves.

To achieve universal access by 2030, there’s a need to connect 160 million people each year. However, funding shortages and infrastructure issues make this unlikely. That requires about $2 billion a year just for Africa to make it happen.

The IEA believes full access by 2040 is more realistic. This will come from increased use of LPG, which will cover about 60% of new connections. It will also involve electric cooking, advanced biomass stoves, and various financing options such as carbon credits. And Nigeria is heading in that direction.

What a $5 Billion Carbon Claim Would Require

Nigeria already has experience with cookstove carbon projects on a smaller scale. The Clean Cooking Alliance’s Nigeria dashboard says the country has 18 registered cookstove projects that have generated 3.4 million carbon credits to date.

The credits from 9 developers are verified by Verra’s VCS and Gold Standard, as seen:

Nigeria cookstove project carbon credit summary
Source: Clean Cooking Alliance

The proposed 80 million-stove rollout is far larger than typical programs. Supporters argue that scale could also mean large volumes of credited emission reductions, especially if adoption remains high over many years.

The $5 billion per year figure has drawn attention because it implies both a large credit volume and a strong credit price. The figure cited in Nigerian reporting was presented as a projection tied to “verified” carbon credit revenues once the project is fully deployed.

Still, projected revenue is not the same as guaranteed income. Real outcomes depend on several conditions, including:

  • The number of stoves actually delivered and used,
  • The verified emissions reductions per household,
  • Approval under the chosen crediting pathway,
  • Market demand, and
  • The price and transaction costs for credits.

Lagos State’s official post highlights a key milestone: 6 million stoves in Lagos. However, it does not confirm future credit volumes or prices.

Delivery, Use, and Verification Will Decide the Outcome

Several signals will help observers judge the program’s progress and credibility.

First is delivery at scale. A plan for 80 million stoves requires large manufacturing or import capacity, distribution logistics, and after-sales support. Maintenance matters because stoves can fail or be abandoned if they do not meet cooking needs.

Second is sustained use. Clean cooking benefits and emissions cuts depend on households consistently using the new stove. Programs often track usage through surveys, sensors, or fuel consumption checks. Strong monitoring also supports more credible carbon claims.

Third is alignment with recognized rules. If the project aims to issue credits under Paris Agreement pathways, it must follow the requirements of Article 6.4 Supervisory Body. This includes using accepted methodologies and verification practices.

Finally, there is the public data baseline. Nigeria’s clean cooking access is still low overall. The Clean Cooking Alliance dashboard, using World Bank data, reported 26.2% access in 2023, with much lower access in rural areas. A well-run program could shift those numbers over time, but it will require steady funding and coordination across states.

For now, the story combines a large public health goal with a climate finance goal, and the scale is ambitious. The key question is whether implementation, monitoring, and market demand can match the size of the revenue promise.

The post Nigeria Aims for 80 Million Clean Cookstoves and a $5 Billion Carbon Credit Revenue appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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