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The rise in global temperatures is a concern that many are taking seriously. Governments, big companies, small businesses, and everyday people are looking for ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to lessen climate change risks. One method that’s gaining a lot of attention is using carbon credits. This idea helps provide financial rewards for those who cut down on emissions and support the growth of clean energy sources. This article is the 5th part of our new series based on our 2023 Climate Change and Carbon Markets Annual Report. The series so far includes:

In this post, we’re going to explore the journey of carbon credits from the start with the Kyoto Protocol to now with the Paris Agreement. We’ll look at how global agreements on climate have evolved and how carbon credits play a crucial part in these. Through this discussion, we hope to give a clear picture of how the world is working together to create a sustainable environment for the future.

The Kyoto Protocol: Setting the Stage for Carbon Credits

The Kyoto Protocol, established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1997, marked the inception of formalized global efforts to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This landmark treaty set forth binding emissions reduction targets for 37 industrialized nations and the European Union, aiming to reduce emissions to 5% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. A subsequent amendment in 2012 extended these targets to 2013-2020. Central to the Kyoto Protocol was the innovative concept of carbon credits, designed to provide economic incentives for emissions reductions. The Protocol introduced Emissions Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI), laying the foundation for the global carbon credit framework (see: https://unfccc.int/news/kyoto-protocol-paves-the-way-for-greater-ambition-under-paris-agreement#:~:text=,like%20Germany%20by%2030%20percent).

Key facts:

  • The Kyoto Protocol committed developed countries to emissions reduction targets of 5% below 1990 levels between 2008-2012. This was later extended to 2013-2020 with an amended treaty.
  • The innovative mechanisms introduced included Emissions Trading, CDM, and JI which provided the blueprint for carbon credits trading.

Paris Agreement: A New Dawn in Global Climate Cooperation

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, emerged as a robust successor to the Kyoto Protocol, reflecting a global shift towards more inclusive and ambitious climate action. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, which placed binding targets on developed countries alone, the Paris Agreement encourages all nations to contribute towards global emissions reduction. This inclusive framework aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with an ambition of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The Paris Agreement introduced the Sustainable Development Mechanism (SDM), poised to replace the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), signifying a transformation in the realm of carbon credits and setting a new trajectory for global environmental strategies (see: https://greencoast.org/kyoto-protocol-vs-paris-agreement).

Key facts:

  • The Paris Agreement set a more ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to the Kyoto Protocol’s 2°C target.
  • It has a universal framework encouraging all countries to contribute, unlike the Kyoto Protocol’s binding targets just for developed nations.
  • Introduced the SDM to replace the CDM, reflecting an evolution in carbon credits post-Kyoto.

Why Some Countries Opted Out: Economic and Strategic Considerations

The Kyoto Protocol faced resistance from some major emitting countries due to concerns surrounding economic competitiveness and equity. The U.S., citing potential economic drawbacks and the lack of binding commitments on developing countries, chose not to ratify the Protocol. Canada withdrew in 2011, expressing concerns over the Protocol’s ability to effectively address global emissions without the participation of major emitters like the U.S. and China. These decisions underscored the complex interplay of economic, strategic, and environmental considerations that influence international climate agreements and the operationalization of carbon credits (see: https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/news-insights/lessons-learned-from-kyoto-to-paris).

Key facts:

  • The U.S. and Canada opted out due to concerns over economic impacts and equity without developing nations’ commitments.
  • Highlights the strategic considerations alongside environmental ones in climate agreements.

Carbon Credits – A Mechanism to Meet Targets

The Kyoto Protocol introduced pioneering mechanisms like Emissions Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI) to help nations meet their emissions reduction targets. These mechanisms provided the blueprint for the evolution of the carbon credit system, allowing for the trading of emission allowances and fostering international collaboration on carbon sequestration projects. The Paris Agreement further refined these mechanisms, introducing the Sustainable Development Mechanism (SDM) to build upon the successes and lessons learned from the Kyoto-era mechanisms, thereby enhancing the global carbon credit framework.

Key facts:

  • Emissions Trading, CDM, and JI were introduced under Kyoto as innovative ways to meet reduction targets.
  • Paris Agreement’s SDM builds on these mechanisms to further improve the carbon credits system.

The Decline of the CDM: Transitioning to a New Era

With the advent of the Paris Agreement, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) saw a decline in prominence as the Sustainable Development Mechanism (SDM) emerged. This transition reflects the global community’s adaptive approach to evolving environmental challenges. The SDM, with its broader scope and enhanced flexibility, aims to address the shortcomings of the CDM, offering a more robust framework for carbon credit initiatives. The shift from CDM to SDM signifies a continued evolution in the mechanisms governing carbon credits, aligning with the ambitious global climate goals set forth by the Paris Agreement.

Key facts:

  • The CDM is being replaced by the more robust SDM under Paris reflecting an adaptive approach.
  • SDM has a wider scope and flexibility compared to CDM.

Challenges in Participation: Navigating Global Climate Dynamics

The participation challenges faced by the Kyoto Protocol highlight the complexities inherent in global climate agreements. Major emitters like the U.S. and China’s reluctance to commit to binding emissions reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol underscored the need for a more inclusive approach. The Paris Agreement, with its universal framework for climate action, addresses some of these challenges by encouraging all nations, regardless of their economic status, to contribute towards global emissions reduction. However, the nuances of national and global priorities continue to influence the level of participation and commitment to carbon credit initiatives.

Key facts:

  • Universal participation under Paris was designed to address the lack of major emitters’ commitment under Kyoto.
  • National interests still impact countries’ levels of commitment to climate agreements.

The Role of the International Transaction Log (ITL): Ensuring Transparency and Accountability

The International Transaction Log (ITL) plays a crucial role in the operationalization of carbon credits by ensuring transparency, accountability, and efficiency in carbon credit transactions. Established by the Secretariat of the Conference of Parties, the ITL meticulously records carbon credit transactions, preventing potential issues like double-counting of reductions or the sale of identical credits multiple times. The ITL, by bridging national emissions trading registries and the UNFCCC, exemplifies the global commitment to a transparent and accountable carbon credit system, underpinning the credibility of international emissions trading initiatives.

Key facts:

  • The ITL prevents double-counting and ensures transparency in carbon credits trading.
  • It bridges national registries and UNFCCC to enable international cooperation.

Risks and Mitigation in Carbon Credit Projects: Ensuring Viability and Sustainability

Carbon credit projects, inherent with regulatory and market risks, necessitate robust mitigation strategies to ensure their viability and sustainability. The complexities of regulatory approvals, monitoring actual emissions, and navigating volatile market dynamics pose challenges to carbon credit projects. Leveraging approved CDM technologies and entering into long-term fixed-price contracts can significantly reduce these risks. The evolving carbon credit framework, transitioning from CDM to SDM under the Paris Agreement, reflects a continued effort to address these risks and enhance the sustainability of carbon credit projects.

Key facts:

  • Regulatory and market risks pose viability challenges for carbon credit projects.
  • CDM methodologies and long-term contracts help mitigate risks.

Controversies in Land Use Projects: Navigating Carbon Sequestration Challenges

Land use projects under the Kyoto Protocol aimed at GHG removals and emissions reductions through activities like afforestation and reforestation. However, they faced resistance due to challenges in estimating and tracking GHG removals over extended periods. The complexities of measuring carbon sequestration, particularly in vast forested areas, underscore the controversies and challenges inherent in the carbon credits domain. The Paris Agreement, with its enhanced framework for carbon credit initiatives, offers avenues to address some of these challenges, promoting a more robust and transparent approach to land use projects within the carbon credits framework.

Key facts:

  • Estimating and monitoring carbon sequestration from land use projects is complex.
  • Caused controversies under Kyoto but Paris Agreement provides scope to improve.

Conclusion – Carbon Credits and the Evolution of Global Climate Strategy

The journey of carbon credits, from the early days of the Kyoto Protocol to the transformative era of the Paris Agreement, offers a window into the world’s evolving approach to climate change mitigation. The innovative mechanisms introduced under these agreements have played a pivotal role in shaping the global carbon credit framework. As nations continue to navigate the complex landscape of global climate cooperation, understanding the intricacies of carbon credits remains pivotal in the collective quest for a sustainable future. Through the lens of carbon credits, we witness the global community’s adaptive strategies in the face of evolving environmental challenges, charting a course towards a more sustainable and resilient global climate framework.

Sources and References:

Image credit:

Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash

Carbon Footprint

Google Invests in First Carbon Capture to Power AI and Cut Emissions

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Google Invests in First Carbon Capture to Power AI and Cut Emissions

Google announced a major new project: it will support a U.S. power plant outfitted with carbon-capture and storage (CCS) technology. The plant, owned by Broadwing Energy in Decatur, Illinois, will capture about 90% of its CO₂ emissions. The tech giant agreed to buy most of the electricity the plant produces.  

By backing this plant, Google aims to help build a reliable, low-carbon power source for its data centers in the U.S. Midwest. It also hopes to speed up the use of CCS technology globally.

The Science of Trapping Carbon: How CCS Works

CCS stands for carbon capture and storage. It involves three main steps:

  • Capture: Pulling CO₂ from a power plant or factory.
  • Transport: Moving the CO₂, often via pipelines.
  • Store: Injecting the CO₂ deep underground where it can’t escape.

This technology is especially important for power plants that burn natural gas or coal. It is also key for factories in heavy industries, like steel and cement, which produce large emissions.

Global experts such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say CCS will play a major role in reaching climate goals.

CCS operational and planned capacity IEA
Source: IEA

Google’s deal highlights this role. By linking a power plant deal to its own data center needs, the company is showing how big tech can strengthen the clean energy transition.

Inside Google’s Illinois CCS Project

The Illinois plant will be a natural 5gas power facility built by Broadwing Energy. It will capture up to 90% of the CO₂ it produces. Google will buy the bulk of its electricity output.

The plant is sized at more than 400 megawatts (MW). It will include advanced equipment and a large carbon-capture unit. The deal was announced by Google and infrastructure partner I Squared Capital (through its affiliate Low Carbon Infrastructure).

Google said the project will feed power to its data centers in the region, help reduce emissions, and make clean “firm power” (power available around the clock) more affordable. This is important because many renewable sources like wind and solar have variable output.

Google stated:

“Today we’re excited to announce a first-of-its-kind corporate agreement to support a gas power plant with CCS. Broadwing Energy, located in Decatur, Illinois, will capture and permanently store approximately 90% of its CO2 emissions. We hope it will accelerate the path for CCS technology to become more accessible and affordable globally, helping to increase generating capacity while enabling emission reductions.”

How Big is the CCS Market?

The CCS market has grown rapidly. One estimate values it at $8.6 billion in 2024, with a projected annual rate of 16% through 2034. At that pace, the market could reach $51.5 billion by 2034.

CCS market size, by technology 2034

Another estimate places the market size in 2024 at $3.68 billion, with growth to $5.61 billion by 2030. The power generation sector is a major part of the market. One report says 37% of the market was from power generation in 2024.

For data centers and tech companies like Google, CCS offers reliable low-carbon power. Given that global data center emissions may reach 2.5 billion tons of CO₂ through 2030, major tech firms are under pressure to decarbonize.

Experts also project that global CCS capacity will quadruple, reaching around 430 million tonnes of CO₂ per year from today’s 50 million tonnes. Investments of about $80 billion are expected over the next five years. North America and Europe currently lead, holding roughly 80% of growth projects, while China and other regions also scale up.

DNV_CCS_forecast_2050_CCS_uptake_in_selected_regions
Source: DNV

CCS currently addresses only 6% of the emissions needed for net-zero by mid-century. Experts still see it as key for hard-to-decarbonize industries like cement, steel, and hydrogen production.

Breaking New Ground in Clean Firm Power

This is the first time a major tech company has agreed to buy electricity from a power plant using CCS at this commercial scale in the U.S.

The deal brings several important benefits:

  • Google secures “firm” power for its data centers, reducing risks from intermittent renewable supply.
  • CCS gives a path to cut emissions from fossil fuel plants rather than shutting them down entirely.
  • It creates a business model for future CCS deals, making the technology more accessible and scalable.

For Google, the deal advances its goal of running on clean energy and especially 24/7 carbon-free power by 2030. For the broader industry, it sends a signal that large corporations support CCS and are willing to back it financially.

Hurdles Ahead for Carbon Capture

Despite the promise, CCS still faces hurdles. The upfront cost is high, and many projects require government incentives or strong contracts to make economic sense.

Another challenge is scale. According to a 2024 study, CCS capacity by 2030 may reach only 0.07–0.37 gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂ per year, which is just a small part of what’s needed to meet climate goals.

CCS capacity additions 2030
Source: DNV Report

For Google’s project and others like it to succeed, they will need strong regulation, clear carbon pricing, and reliable storage sites. Also, transparency and long-term monitoring are critical to ensure the CO₂ stays underground.

The Illinois plant is a start. If it runs successfully, it could spawn many more projects in power generation and industry. Corporations, utilities, and governments may replicate the model.

The Big Picture: From Data Centers to Decarbonization

Tech companies are building ever-larger data centers to fuel artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and global connectivity. This drives huge electricity demand. Google’s CCS deal shows one way to manage that demand while cutting carbon.

CCS combined with clean power can help sectors that cannot easily switch to renewables. Power plants that run on natural gas or industries like cement and steel may use CCS to reduce emissions.

For Google, the new deal helps it reach its sustainability targets, supports its data-center operations, and sets an example for other firms. The chart below shows the company’s emission reduction progress. For the climate, it offers a template for building low-carbon power systems at scale.

Google carbon emissions 2024
Source: Google

Final Thoughts: A Pivotal Moment for Clean Power

Google’s agreement signals a shift: clean, firm power is becoming a business reality, not just a promise. By backing a CCS-enabled gas power plant, Google is aligning business needs with carbon reduction goals.

The global CCS market is expanding fast. Estimates show billions of dollars flowing into the technology. But scaling remains challenging — cost, policy, and geology all play a role.

If the Illinois plant succeeds, it may influence how corporations, utilities, and governments design power systems in the future. It could help unlock CCS as one of the tools in the broader energy transition toolbox.

The post Google Invests in First Carbon Capture to Power AI and Cut Emissions appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Bitcoin Mining Stocks Hit New Highs on AI Pivot with CleanSpark Leading the Pack

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Bitcoin Mining Stocks Hit New Highs on AI Pivot with CleanSpark Leading the Pack

Bitcoin mining stocks jumped sharply this week after several big companies said they will expand into artificial intelligence (AI). Many miners now plan to use their computers and power systems for AI data centers, not just for Bitcoin.

CleanSpark led the rally after announcing its move into AI. The shift shows how fast the mining industry is changing as companies look for new ways to earn money.

CleanSpark Ignites the Rally

Las Vegas–based CleanSpark saw its shares rise as much as 13% on October 21, 2025. The company said it will build and run data centers made for AI computing, in addition to mining Bitcoin.

CleanSpark stock AI

CleanSpark also hired Jeffrey Thomas, a veteran with more than 40 years of experience, as Senior Vice President of AI Data Centers. Thomas once led Saudi Arabia’s multi-billion-dollar AI data center program. He has helped create about $12 billion in shareholder value across 19 companies.

Thomas remarked:

“CleanSpark is at a pivotal moment in its journey. Together, we have a tremendous opportunity to deliver exceptional solutions for our customers while creating long-term value for shareholders and positioning CleanSpark at the center of the AI and intelligent computing revolution.”

The company already secured land and extra power in College Park, Georgia, near Atlanta, to build its first AI sites. It is also studying more possible locations in other U.S. states.

The news came as Bitcoin prices climbed back above $110,000, recovering from earlier drops when the price fell from highs above $126,000 in early October.

bitcoin price

More Miners Follow the Same Path

CleanSpark is not alone. Many mining companies are now trying to grow beyond Bitcoin. The reason is clear: mining rewards have fallen, and energy costs are rising.

After Bitcoin’s 2024 halving, rewards for miners dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This made mining less profitable, pushing companies to look for other income sources.

Companies like Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Platforms, Canaan, Core Scientific, Bitdeer Technologies, Hut 8, Cipher Mining, and TeraWulf have all announced similar plans. Their stocks also rose:

  • Marathon Digital gained 7.97% to $21.13.
  • Riot Platforms jumped 11.21% to $22.28.
  • Canaan, a hardware maker in China, surged about 28%.

Publicly traded Bitcoin miners raised more than $4.6 billion through loans and convertible notes in late 2024 and early 2025 to fund their AI projects.

The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF, which tracks the sector, has soared 160% this year. Investors are clearly excited about the shift toward AI.

Why Miners Are Betting on AI

The move to AI computing makes sense for miners. They already own powerful hardware, data centers, and energy contracts. These can easily be used for AI instead of crypto.

AI systems need large amounts of electricity and fast processors to train and run models. Bitcoin miners already have this setup. By shifting to AI workloads, they can earn money even when Bitcoin prices are low.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for AI data centers could reach over 1,000 terawatt-hours per year by 2030 — about the same as all of Japan’s electricity use today.

data center electricity use 2035
Source: IEA

The global AI infrastructure market could be worth $1.3 trillion by 2032, growing around 25% each year. That makes it one of the fastest-growing industries in the world.

For miners, the message is simple: if Bitcoin mining is less profitable, AI computing can fill the gap and create steady revenue.

From Mining Rigs to AI Powerhouses

AI computing and Bitcoin mining use similar technology. Both rely on high-performance processors to handle huge amounts of data.

Miners already operate powerful chips, cooling systems, and strong electricity connections. They can reuse all these to run AI and high-performance computing (HPC) jobs.

CleanSpark plans to build hybrid data centers — some for Bitcoin, others for AI workloads. Likewise, Core Scientific said it will set aside part of its 1.3-gigawatt capacity for AI clients. Other companies are exploring similar plans.

This model could change the industry. Instead of just mining coins, these firms could become “compute providers” — selling power and computing to AI companies, research labs, and cloud platforms.

Investors See Opportunity Beyond Bitcoin

Investors like this new direction. It means miners no longer depend only on Bitcoin’s price swings. They can earn a steady income from long-term contracts with AI firms.

The IEA says global electricity use from data centers could double by 2030, largely because of AI. The U.S. has about 40% of the world’s data center capacity, but new projects face delays due to power and permitting issues.

data center electricity demand due AI 2030

Bitcoin miners already have access to large power sources. This gives them an edge when building new AI sites. They can repurpose their existing energy deals for AI computing, cutting startup time and costs.

Still, experts warn that running AI data centers is not easy. It needs new software, specialized equipment, and skilled workers. It also takes longer to make a profit compared to Bitcoin mining, which can adjust quickly to market prices.

Energy Use and the ESG Equation

Energy use remains a key concern for both AI and Bitcoin mining. The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance estimates Bitcoin mining uses about 120 terawatt-hours of electricity each year, roughly equal to Argentina’s total use.

bitcoin electricity consumption 2025
Source: Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance

Mining companies are trying to improve their environmental impact. CleanSpark says it sources most of its electricity from renewable or low-carbon energy. It plans to apply the same approach to its AI expansion.

Switching to AI could also make mining more efficient. Many AI centers use advanced cooling systems and can run on renewable energy more easily than older mining farms.

This could help miners meet environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals while supporting the growth of clean digital infrastructure.

A New Era of Digital Infrastructure

The rise of AI has opened a new chapter for Bitcoin miners. What began as a niche focused on crypto now looks more like a digital infrastructure industry that powers AI, data analytics, and renewable energy systems.

If the transition succeeds, mining companies could become important players in the global computing market. They would supply power and servers for everything from AI model training to smart grid management.

For investors, this change offers both opportunity and risk. It provides exposure to two fast-growing industries — crypto and AI — but also depends on how well miners adapt.

Analysts say the key will be execution. Building AI centers takes time and money, and not all miners will succeed. But those who manage the shift well could become leaders in clean, high-tech energy and computing. They will shape the next phase of digital infrastructure — one that connects blockchain, AI, and sustainable power.

The post Bitcoin Mining Stocks Hit New Highs on AI Pivot with CleanSpark Leading the Pack appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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UN Endorses First Article 6.4 Carbon Credit Methodology, Unlocking Billions for Global Carbon Markets

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UN Endorses First Article 6.4 Carbon Credit Methodology, Unlocking Billions for Global Carbon Markets

The United Nations has taken a major step in global carbon markets. A UN panel has approved the first methodology under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. This marks the start of a new era in international carbon trading. The system will help countries and companies offset emissions under one global standard.

A New Chapter for Global Carbon Markets

Article 6.4, also known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM), aims to build a global market where countries can trade verified emission reductions. It replaces the old Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the Kyoto Protocol, which registered more than 7,800 projects between 2006 and 2020. This new system makes sure carbon credits come from real and measurable emission cuts.

The UNFCCC Supervisory Body met in mid-October 2025 to review new market methods. Their approval of the first one marks a major step for climate finance projects around the world.

The first approved method supports renewable energy projects, especially small wind and solar developments in developing countries. These projects are key to reducing emissions and expanding access to clean energy.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says renewable energy in developing economies must triple by 2030 to reach global net-zero goals.

What Article 6.4 Means

Article 6.4 is part of the Paris Agreement’s cooperation plan. It lets one country fund emission reduction projects in another country and count those reductions toward its own climate goals. The system aims to:

  • Stop double-counting of emission reductions.
  • Improve transparency through strict monitoring.
  • Build trust between developing and developed nations. 
article 6.4 PACM
Source: UNFCCC

This system will help countries meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) faster. The World Bank estimates that NDC cooperation could cut up to 5 billion tonnes of emissions annually by 2030. It could also unlock around $250 billion in climate finance each year, giving investors a clear way to support credible carbon projects.

At COP29 in Baku, world governments agreed on a new global climate finance goal for after 2025. They pledged to scale up funding for developing countries to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 from public and private sources.

Developed nations will lead by mobilizing $300 billion annually, expanding on the earlier $100 billion target. The agreement allows developing countries to count their own contributions voluntarily. It also includes all multilateral development bank (MDB) climate finance. This aligns with expert estimates that developing nations need $3.1–3.5 trillion yearly by 2035 to meet climate investment and adaptation goals.

300 billion climate finance goal
Source: NRDC

From Rules to Real Markets

Until now, discussions around Article 6.4 have focused mainly on rules and design. The panel’s decision moves the system from theory to action. It shows that global carbon trading is ready to begin.

Experts predict global demand for carbon credits could reach 2 billion tonnes by 2030, and as high as 13 billion tonnes by 2050. The UN wants to make sure only verified, high-quality credits enter this fast-growing market.

Developing nations stand to benefit the most. Many have strong potential for renewable energy, reforestation, and methane reduction projects. Africa alone could supply up to 30% of the world’s high-quality carbon credits by 2030. These projects could create billions in new revenue for clean growth.

The new methodology allows these projects to earn credits that can be sold internationally, helping communities build clean energy and adapt to climate change.

Ensuring Integrity and Transparency

Old carbon markets faced criticism for weak integrity and unclear reporting. Article 6.4 aims to fix that. Every project must pass strict checks by independent auditors before earning credits. Credits will only be issued if real emission cuts are proven.

The Supervisory Body’s framework includes steps for:

  • Setting clear baselines for emissions.
  • Measuring reductions over time.
  • Monitoring performance using standard tools.

This process will help rebuild trust and attract new investors. Each credit will have a digital record, allowing buyers to trace where it came from and what impact it had.

Countries and companies with net-zero targets will finally have a credible tool to meet their goals. Over 160 nations now have net-zero pledges. Around 60% of global companies already use or plan to use carbon credits to reach their climate goals.

How Business and Finance Are Responding

The approval of the first methodology will draw major interest from the energy and finance sectors. Many firms have been waiting for a reliable, UN-backed system.

The voluntary carbon market was worth about $2 billion in 2023, according to McKinsey. It could grow to more than $100 billion by 2030 as Article 6.4 trading begins. The new system will also pressure companies to buy only verified and transparent credits, cutting down on “greenwashing.”

voluntary carbon credit demand growth
Source: McKinsey & Company

Regional exchanges and carbon registries are preparing to include Article 6.4 credits once the market launches. Exchanges in Asia, Europe, and Latin America are already aligning with UN rules. This will help stabilize global carbon prices, which currently range from under $5 per tonne in voluntary markets to more than $90 per tonne in the EU system.

More stable prices could encourage long-term investments in clean energy and climate projects. Experts expect Article 6.4 credits to trade at a premium once investors recognize their higher quality.

ESG and Environmental Impact

The new UN system supports Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) goals worldwide. Companies that buy Article 6.4 credits can cut their carbon footprint while funding sustainable projects in vulnerable regions.

Renewable energy projects such as solar and wind farms in Africa and Asia create jobs, cleaner air, and better access to power. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reports that renewable energy jobs reached 13.7 million in 2024, with strong growth expected in developing countries. These social benefits align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for clean energy and climate action.

With stronger oversight, the UN aims to stop misuse and deliver real results. As carbon markets expand, credit integrity will define success. A 2024 study found that up to 40% of older offset credits lacked verifiable emission savings. Article 6.4 aims to close that gap.

Toward a Fair, Transparent, and Unified Carbon Future

Challenges remain before the new system reaches full scale. The next step is to approve more methods for areas like forestry, agriculture, and industry. These sectors are complex and need careful rules to avoid overstating emission cuts.

Negotiations between countries will also continue. Some worry that carbon trading may let others delay domestic cuts. Others believe it will open new funding for clean energy and climate adaptation.

The UN says developing countries will need about $4.3 trillion each year by 2030 to meet climate and energy goals. Article 6.4 could help fill that funding gap.

The Supervisory Body will meet again before COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where it may approve more methodologies. Governments and investors are watching closely as the system expands.

The UN system promises a fair and transparent market for everyone. As carbon prices become more consistent, the focus will shift to ensuring projects deliver real benefits for people and the planet.

The post UN Endorses First Article 6.4 Carbon Credit Methodology, Unlocking Billions for Global Carbon Markets appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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