Last year was significant for energy and climate developments in China. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth hovered close to 2023 levels throughout the year, raising the possibility of China’s CO2 emissions peaking before 2030.
China’s renewable energy buildout pushed coal to a record low share of electricity generation, while steps were taken to expand the number of industries covered by the national carbon market.
On the global stage, China played a prominent role at the COP29 UN climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan. However, the US-China alignment that had previously boosted global climate ambition was imperiled by growing tensions over trade.
With US influence in climate negotiations expected to wane under the incoming Trump administration, China’s statements on climate ambition – such as the international climate pledge it is due to publish in 2025 – will be an important determinant of the pace of decarbonisation, both domestically and internationally.
Carbon Brief asked nine leading experts what they are watching for from China over the year ahead. Their responses have been edited for length and clarity.
Dr Muyi Yang
Senior electricity policy analyst for China
Ember
In 2025, China will need to strike a delicate balance between sustaining economic growth and advancing its decarbonisation agenda. This balancing act will require more than just scaling up renewables such as wind, solar and energy storage – coal power, which has long been central to China’s energy security and economic activity, also requires a major transformation.
This is not simply about shuttering a handful of coal-fired power plants, but managing the broader tensions and conflicts arising from the decline of the coal-electricity ecosystem. The impacts will extend to power generators, logistics companies, mining firms, equipment manufacturers and the coal-chemical industry, along with the socio-economic systems built around them.
As China approaches a critical turning point – envisioning the start of absolute coal consumption reductions during the next five-year plan period (beginning in 2026) – it must begin planning for this transition now. Successfully navigating this complex process while safeguarding economic stability, ensuring energy security and delivering on climate commitments will be key to China’s success in 2025 and beyond.
Prof Boqiang Lin
Dean
China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy
In 2025, China’s energy and climate developments will focus on advancing its “dual-carbon” goals through several key initiatives. The deployment of “new energy” will accelerate, with offshore wind power, distributed solar and decentralised wind power seeing significant growth. New wind and solar installations are expected to reach at least 200 gigawatts (GW). [Installations topped 300GW last year.] Nuclear power will be steadily advanced, with operational nuclear capacity projected to reach 65GW by the end of 2025. Efforts to promote the “clean and efficient use” of coal will also progress, with cleaner and more flexible coal power systems continuing to support the significant growth in wind and solar power.
Energy storage technologies and the development of smart grids will expand, facilitating large-scale integration of renewable energy into the grid, while development of virtual power plants and large-scale vehicle-to-grid pilots will enhance grid efficiency and energy interaction. The supporting infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) will also receive more attention to support the rapid increase in EV penetration. The carbon market is expected to expand to include more sectors, with carbon prices gradually increasing.
Zhe Yao
Global policy advisor
Greenpeace East Asia
This year will be an important milestone. As the last year of the 14th “five-year” plan period, we will see if China can get back on track to meet its existing energy and carbon intensity targets. China’s climate plan for the next 10 years (its new nationally determined contribution), will be released and its ambition will be tested.
It is also a year in which we may confirm a structural shift in China’s energy consumption, signifying a peak in emissions. The key indicator of this trend will be whether renewable energy can meet all new electricity demand.
An even tougher test will be whether and how the climate imperative can survive geopolitical challenges. China will have to deal with a new president in the White House and growing competition from the EU in clean industries, so the relationship between China and its conventional climate partners will need to take a new shape. Hopefully, by 2025, a new climate relationship will emerge that is suited to a changing economic and geopolitical context.
Zhibin Chen
Senior manager for carbon markets and pricing
Adelphi
Looking ahead to 2025, I see several promising aspects of the development of China’s carbon market. These include:
- Significantly expanding the coverage of the national emissions trading scheme (ETS) to officially include the steel, cement and aluminium sectors.
- Starting the issuance, trading and use of China certified emissions reduction (CCER) certificates [in the voluntary carbon market] to meet compliance obligations.
- Transitioning the structure of the national ETS from an intensity-based cap on emissions [per unit of production] to an absolute cap [in tonnes of CO2].
- Allowing traders and investors to participate in China emission allowances (CEA) market trading [within the national ETS].
Of these, the first two points are certain to occur next year and I hope they will be implemented smoothly. The latter two have been mentioned previously by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment policymakers, and I hope the government will establish a concrete timeline and implementation roadmap for them.
Dr Ilaria Mazzocco
Deputy director and senior fellow with the trustee chair in Chinese business and economics
Center for Strategic & International Studies
What I’m looking out for is how China manages its increasingly tense external commercial relations and the growing demand internationally for Chinese foreign direct investment. Clean technologies, particularly the “new three” of solar, lithium-ion batteries and EVs, are at the heart of this tension.
The brewing global conflict over the future of climate technology manufacturing and trade will depend in no small part on developments in the industries in China, including domestic demand and profitability of Chinese firms. Just as important are the types of trade-offs and deals that China’s trade partners, including the US, will lean towards [in their China policy going forward].
Kyle Chan
Postdoctoral researcher
Princeton University
This will be a pivotal year for Chinese EVs. Fierce competition within China’s domestic market will drive down prices, spur further innovation in features, such as advanced driver-assistance systems, and continue China’s transition from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) to EVs. It will be interesting to see whether emerging trends within China will presage broader global trends, such as the popularity of extended-range [hybrid] EVs and improving battery-swapping technology.
Internationally, Chinese EV and battery makers are expanding to new markets and responding to rising trade barriers by investing heavily in overseas factories from Europe to southeast Asia. One big question is whether these bets will pay off or whether demand for EVs in these markets will be constrained by other factors, such as limited local charging infrastructure. Another big question is to what extent other countries will try to integrate with Chinese EV supply chains – or try to build around them.
Dr Angel Hsu
Associate professor of public policy and environment, ecology and energy
University of North Carolina
I am enthusiastic about the prospects for continued subnational cooperation between China and the US in climate and energy policies, especially following the strong interest shown at COP29. The numerous technical exchanges between states such as Washington and the Chinese delegation…are promising developments. Plans are already in place to sustain this dialogue into 2025, building on the progress made this past year.
I am particularly eager to see how third-party countries and regions can serve as neutral grounds for collaboration. With the US likely stepping back from climate engagement, there’s a significant opportunity for increased alignment between China and ASEAN [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations], for example. China’s proactive approach at COP29, especially regarding voluntary climate financing, positions it well to lead in supporting south-east Asian nations in their decarbonisation efforts, creating a win-win scenario for regional sustainability.
Shuang Liu
China finance director
World Resources Institute
With the “new collective quantified goal” on climate finance set at COP29 in Baku, China could continue its support to developing countries on their low-carbon and resilient transitions through south-south cooperation. Our research shows that China is already a significant climate-finance provider, averaging almost $4.5bn per year between 2013 and 2022.
Data shows China’s climate finance abroad dropped following the pandemic, but has been picking up slowly over the past three years. One big driver of future growth in climate finance could be how China and Chinese stakeholders sustain investment in the clean energy transition in developing countries – with a recent example being deals signed between China and Indonesia on clean energy manufacturing and infrastructure during president Prabowo Subianto’s visit to Beijing in November. Such deals can support the energy transition, create more job opportunities and help achieve other sustainable and development goals in the global south.
Dr Christoph Nedopil
Director and professor of economics
Griffith Asia Institute
For 2025, China’s engagement in green energy will likely flourish in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), driven by the growing energy transition needs of partner countries. In Indonesia, for instance, president Prabowo’s accelerated green energy plan announced at the G20 meeting in December 2024 and newly signed cooperation agreements with China highlight the role of targeted collaboration [with China] in addressing local energy priorities. This includes investments not only in renewable energy systems, such as solar and wind power, but also in critical technologies such as battery manufacturing to support energy storage and grid stability.
I also hope we can make progress on three challenges: first, how can we simultaneously accelerate investment in green [energy] and phase-down of brown energy (fossil fuels); second, how can local employees benefit more from the green energy transition, particularly with more western trade restrictions on Chinese green tech products; and, third, how can we accelerate greening of industrial and captive energy in the BRI. A particular opportunity for the years ahead lies in sharing lessons from Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the power sector to the many other energy SOEs in Asia.
The post Experts: What to expect from China on energy and climate action in 2025? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Experts: What to expect from China on energy and climate action in 2025?
Climate Change
GREENPEACE GAS PROTEST DAY TWO: Activists spend first night on Woodside’s Scarborough gas platform, “in this for the long haul”
- NEW footage and photos available here and on Instagram – more being uploaded today.
- Interviews available with campaigners on board the Rainbow Warrior on request.
Greenpeace Australia Pacific activists have slept overnight on Woodside’s Floating Production Unit and dropped a massive 12×14-metre banner reading “Stop Woodside’s Dirty Gas. Save Scott Reef”.
Two activists have set up temporary hanging tents on the South East pillar, while the other two returned to the Rainbow Warrior late yesterday afternoon, after fulfilling their initial role. The activists will occupy the platform for as long as possible.
The environmental advocacy group is peacefully protesting Woodside’s plans to drill for oil and gas at Scott Reef as part of its Browse proposal.
Sakyo Noda, one of the Greenpeace Australia Pacific activists, said: “As a Japanese person living in Australia, I feel incredibly passionate about stopping Australia’s gas exports to Asia.
“Despite what the gas industry tells us, Australia’s gas is not helping to decarbonise Asia. It is simply not true. We shouldn’t be allowing fossil fuel companies like Woodside to extract new fossil fuels, let alone at extraordinary places like Scott Reef”.
Aboard the Rainbow Warrior, Geoff Bice, WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, added, “Everyone is in good spirits. We’re in it for the long haul.”
Links:
Photos and video of Scott Reef here
Audio and footage of yesterday’s press conference here
Content and live updates will be uploaded to a live blog and Instagram
In-person interviews in Perth with David Ritter, CEO of Greenpeace Australia Pacific, can be organised. Dial-in, SimSat and Zoom interviews with Geoff Bice, WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, currently aboard the Rainbow Warrior, can be organised.
Saturday, 17 October 2026
7.18 AM AWST
Hi folks! We’re joining you live from the Rainbow Warrior where we will be providing you with updates as our four activists continue scaling and occupying Woodside’s gas platform. The activists are peacefully protesting against Woodside’s latest gas expansion plans, the Browse project, which would see up to 57 toxic wells drilled at Scott Reef.
“Right now our activists are scaling Woodside’s massive Floating Production Unit. They are scaling the South-East pillar and the underside of the Helideck. They’ll be setting up camp soon and have plenty of provisions with them – so stick around!”
5:45 AM AWST
Our RHIBS are in the water! We’ve deployed our four activists and our ship crew on our small fast boats, headed to the gas platform. We’re carrying crew and equipment, plenty of food, all of our safety climbing gear, some big banners, cameras and a whole lot of heart… someone even has something to read after they get settled in.
5:26 AM AWST
Before sunrise activists prepared to launch RHIBS from the Rainbow Warrior.
Looking for a front seat view?
You can follow along with the Live Rainbow Warrior bow cam here!
Looking for more?
Follow us on Instagram for a peek behind the scenes and hear from our Rainbow Warrior crew.
Live blog: Greenpeace activists occupy Woodside gas project to save Scott Reef
Climate Change
Greenpeace activists climb and occupy Woodside’s Scarborough gas project calling on the Australian government to “Stop Woodside’s Dirty Gas” and “Save Scott Reef”
PERTH, Saturday 17 October 2026 — Four Greenpeace Australia Pacific activists are scaling and occupying a Floating Production Unit at Woodside’s Scarborough gas project off the coast of Western Australia, displaying banners reading: “Stop Woodside’s Dirty Gas. Save Scott Reef.”
- Photos and video available here and here. More will be uploaded throughout the day.
- Content and live updates will be uploaded to a live blog and to Instagram
Early this morning at 05:45 AWST, Greenpeace Australia Pacific activists launched from the Rainbow Warrior, Greenpeace’s flagship vessel, scaling and attaching themselves to a Floating Production Unit (FPU), a key piece of gas processing infrastructure at the Scarborough gas field over 200km off the coast of Exmouth.
Woodside has since confirmed it has initiated a temporary shut down of the FPU.
Greenpeace Australia Pacific is occupying the gas platform in peaceful protest of Woodside’s plans to drill for oil and gas at Scott Reef as part of its Browse proposal.
David Ritter, CEO at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Greenpeace Australia Pacific is taking action today to expose the unacceptable risk to Scott Reef posed by Woodside’s plans.
“Australians love our oceans. Woodside’s reckless Browse gas proposal would turn the magnificent Scott Reef into an industrial gas zone. Woodside wants to drill up to 57 toxic wells around Scott Reef, Australia’s largest oceanic reef, home to nesting green sea turtles, and endangered species like pygmy blue whales and the dusky sea snake; it is a place like nowhere else on Earth.
“Woodside has an alarming track record of oil spills, incidents and environmental neglect, and can’t be trusted with our oceans. From whaling in Albany in the seventies, to Woodside’s threat to Scott Reef today, there’s more than fifty years of history, of Greenpeace taking action off WA’s coasts to protect our oceans.
“There’s no future in new gas projects. Our future is in secure homegrown renewable energy, green industry and exports, where communities and places like Scott Reef are protected — there’s no future in dirty gas shipped offshore.
“The prospect of drilling for oil or gas on the Great Barrier Reef would be considered absolute madness today, but that is exactly the decision before the government: save Scott Reef or risk its destruction at the hands of a gas corporation.”
From aboard the Floating Production Unit, Dr Chris Holden, Greenpeace Australia Pacific activist said: “As a doctor, when I see new fossil fuel projects like Woodside’s Browse project being put forward, I can’t help but think about the impact this is going to have on the health of our communities and planet, and feel a sense of duty to act.
“Not only will this project do irrevocable harm to nature at Scott Reef, it will have a terrible impact on our climate, putting all of our lives at risk.
“On the Rainbow Warrior I’m carrying a copy of the 2025 Lancet countdown report, which warns that health impacts of climate change are worsening, with millions dying needlessly each year due to fossil fuel dependence, growing emissions, and failure to adequately adapt.
“With warnings like this from the leading global health professionals, our government simply can’t allow fossil fuel projects like Woodside’s Browse project to go ahead. It is their duty to do what is in the best interest of our communities.”
Almost half a million people have signed a petition calling on the government to Save Scott Reef and Woodside’s Browse gas project.
-ENDS-
Notes:
- Dial-in, SimSat and Zoom interviews with Geoff Bice, WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, currently aboard the Rainbow Warrior