Published

1 year ago

January 9, 2025

Alice Rush

Last year was significant for energy and climate developments in China. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth hovered close to 2023 levels throughout the year, raising the possibility of China’s CO2 emissions peaking before 2030.

China’s renewable energy buildout pushed coal to a record low share of electricity generation, while steps were taken to expand the number of industries covered by the national carbon market.

On the global stage, China played a prominent role at the COP29 UN climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan. However, the US-China alignment that had previously boosted global climate ambition was imperiled by growing tensions over trade.

With US influence in climate negotiations expected to wane under the incoming Trump administration, China’s statements on climate ambition – such as the international climate pledge it is due to publish in 2025 – will be an important determinant of the pace of decarbonisation, both domestically and internationally.

Carbon Brief asked nine leading experts what they are watching for from China over the year ahead. Their responses have been edited for length and clarity.

Dr Muyi Yang
Senior electricity policy analyst for China
Ember

In 2025, China will need to strike a delicate balance between sustaining economic growth and advancing its decarbonisation agenda. This balancing act will require more than just scaling up renewables such as wind, solar and energy storage – coal power, which has long been central to China’s energy security and economic activity, also requires a major transformation.

This is not simply about shuttering a handful of coal-fired power plants, but managing the broader tensions and conflicts arising from the decline of the coal-electricity ecosystem. The impacts will extend to power generators, logistics companies, mining firms, equipment manufacturers and the coal-chemical industry, along with the socio-economic systems built around them.

As China approaches a critical turning point – envisioning the start of absolute coal consumption reductions during the next five-year plan period (beginning in 2026) – it must begin planning for this transition now. Successfully navigating this complex process while safeguarding economic stability, ensuring energy security and delivering on climate commitments will be key to China’s success in 2025 and beyond.

Prof Boqiang Lin
Dean
China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy

In 2025, China’s energy and climate developments will focus on advancing its “dual-carbon” goals through several key initiatives. The deployment of “new energy” will accelerate, with offshore wind power, distributed solar and decentralised wind power seeing significant growth. New wind and solar installations are expected to reach at least 200 gigawatts (GW). [Installations topped 300GW last year.] Nuclear power will be steadily advanced, with operational nuclear capacity projected to reach 65GW by the end of 2025. Efforts to promote the “clean and efficient use” of coal will also progress, with cleaner and more flexible coal power systems continuing to support the significant growth in wind and solar power.

Energy storage technologies and the development of smart grids will expand, facilitating large-scale integration of renewable energy into the grid, while development of virtual power plants and large-scale vehicle-to-grid pilots will enhance grid efficiency and energy interaction. The supporting infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) will also receive more attention to support the rapid increase in EV penetration. The carbon market is expected to expand to include more sectors, with carbon prices gradually increasing.

Zhe Yao

Global policy advisor
Greenpeace East Asia

This year will be an important milestone. As the last year of the 14th “five-year” plan period, we will see if China can get back on track to meet its existing energy and carbon intensity targets. China’s climate plan for the next 10 years (its new nationally determined contribution), will be released and its ambition will be tested.

It is also a year in which we may confirm a structural shift in China’s energy consumption, signifying a peak in emissions. The key indicator of this trend will be whether renewable energy can meet all new electricity demand.

An even tougher test will be whether and how the climate imperative can survive geopolitical challenges. China will have to deal with a new president in the White House and growing competition from the EU in clean industries, so the relationship between China and its conventional climate partners will need to take a new shape. Hopefully, by 2025, a new climate relationship will emerge that is suited to a changing economic and geopolitical context.

Zhibin Chen

Senior manager for carbon markets and pricing
Adelphi

Looking ahead to 2025, I see several promising aspects of the development of China’s carbon market. These include:

Significantly expanding the coverage of the national emissions trading scheme (ETS) to officially include the steel, cement and aluminium sectors.

Starting the issuance, trading and use of China certified emissions reduction (CCER) certificates [in the voluntary carbon market] to meet compliance obligations.

Transitioning the structure of the national ETS from an intensity-based cap on emissions [per unit of production] to an absolute cap [in tonnes of CO2].

Allowing traders and investors to participate in China emission allowances (CEA) market trading [within the national ETS].

Of these, the first two points are certain to occur next year and I hope they will be implemented smoothly. The latter two have been mentioned previously by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment policymakers, and I hope the government will establish a concrete timeline and implementation roadmap for them.

Dr Ilaria Mazzocco
Deputy director and senior fellow with the trustee chair in Chinese business and economics

Center for Strategic & International Studies

What I’m looking out for is how China manages its increasingly tense external commercial relations and the growing demand internationally for Chinese foreign direct investment. Clean technologies, particularly the “new three” of solar, lithium-ion batteries and EVs, are at the heart of this tension.

The brewing global conflict over the future of climate technology manufacturing and trade will depend in no small part on developments in the industries in China, including domestic demand and profitability of Chinese firms. Just as important are the types of trade-offs and deals that China’s trade partners, including the US, will lean towards [in their China policy going forward].

Kyle Chan

Postdoctoral researcher
Princeton University

This will be a pivotal year for Chinese EVs. Fierce competition within China’s domestic market will drive down prices, spur further innovation in features, such as advanced driver-assistance systems, and continue China’s transition from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) to EVs. It will be interesting to see whether emerging trends within China will presage broader global trends, such as the popularity of extended-range [hybrid] EVs and improving battery-swapping technology.

Internationally, Chinese EV and battery makers are expanding to new markets and responding to rising trade barriers by investing heavily in overseas factories from Europe to southeast Asia. One big question is whether these bets will pay off or whether demand for EVs in these markets will be constrained by other factors, such as limited local charging infrastructure. Another big question is to what extent other countries will try to integrate with Chinese EV supply chains – or try to build around them.

Dr Angel Hsu
Associate professor of public policy and environment, ecology and energy
University of North Carolina

I am enthusiastic about the prospects for continued subnational cooperation between China and the US in climate and energy policies, especially following the strong interest shown at COP29. The numerous technical exchanges between states such as Washington and the Chinese delegation…are promising developments. Plans are already in place to sustain this dialogue into 2025, building on the progress made this past year.

I am particularly eager to see how third-party countries and regions can serve as neutral grounds for collaboration. With the US likely stepping back from climate engagement, there’s a significant opportunity for increased alignment between China and ASEAN [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations], for example. China’s proactive approach at COP29, especially regarding voluntary climate financing, positions it well to lead in supporting south-east Asian nations in their decarbonisation efforts, creating a win-win scenario for regional sustainability.

Shuang Liu

China finance director
World Resources Institute

With the “new collective quantified goal” on climate finance set at COP29 in Baku, China could continue its support to developing countries on their low-carbon and resilient transitions through south-south cooperation. Our research shows that China is already a significant climate-finance provider, averaging almost $4.5bn per year between 2013 and 2022.

Data shows China’s climate finance abroad dropped following the pandemic, but has been picking up slowly over the past three years. One big driver of future growth in climate finance could be how China and Chinese stakeholders sustain investment in the clean energy transition in developing countries – with a recent example being deals signed between China and Indonesia on clean energy manufacturing and infrastructure during president Prabowo Subianto’s visit to Beijing in November. Such deals can support the energy transition, create more job opportunities and help achieve other sustainable and development goals in the global south.

Dr Christoph Nedopil
Director and professor of economics
Griffith Asia Institute

For 2025, China’s engagement in green energy will likely flourish in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), driven by the growing energy transition needs of partner countries. In Indonesia, for instance, president Prabowo’s accelerated green energy plan announced at the G20 meeting in December 2024 and newly signed cooperation agreements with China highlight the role of targeted collaboration [with China] in addressing local energy priorities. This includes investments not only in renewable energy systems, such as solar and wind power, but also in critical technologies such as battery manufacturing to support energy storage and grid stability.

I also hope we can make progress on three challenges: first, how can we simultaneously accelerate investment in green [energy] and phase-down of brown energy (fossil fuels); second, how can local employees benefit more from the green energy transition, particularly with more western trade restrictions on Chinese green tech products; and, third, how can we accelerate greening of industrial and captive energy in the BRI. A particular opportunity for the years ahead lies in sharing lessons from Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the power sector to the many other energy SOEs in Asia.

The post Experts: What to expect from China on energy and climate action in 2025? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Experts: What to expect from China on energy and climate action in 2025?

Climate Change

Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances

Published

1 day ago

June 21, 2026

Alice Rush

But a $345 million U.S. verdict against the environmental group hangs over the case.

By Dana Drugmand

A lawsuit filed by Greenpeace International against the U.S.-based fossil fuel company Energy Transfer in the Netherlands is moving forward after a Dutch court recently ruled in favor of the environmental organization in rejecting the company’s bid to toss out the case.

Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances

Climate Change

The Search for Super Reefs

Published

1 day ago

June 21, 2026

Alice Rush

Go behind the scenes with executive editor Vernon Loeb and oceans correspondent Teresa Tomassoni as they discuss the search for heat-resilient coral reefs that are somehow defying the odds to survive a warming planet.

By Teresa Tomassoni

The world has already lost more than half of its coral reefs, and most of what remains is at risk of disappearing in the next 25 years.

The Search for Super Reefs

Climate Change

DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations

Published

2 days ago

June 20, 2026

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Bonn talks close

‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.

JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.

‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.

US-Iran deal

PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.

‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.

‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.

Around the world

OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.

1.1 billion

The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.

Latest climate research

Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.

Spotlight

Oceans rising at UN climate talks

The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.

Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.

They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.

At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.

These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.

‘Elevate action’

Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.

The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.

COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.

In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:

“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”

Ocean dialogue breakout group. Credit: IISD/ENB, Maja Schmidt-Thomé.

Strategies and finance

The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.

One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).

Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)

Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.

(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)

Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.

‘Political momentum’

With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.

Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:

“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”

Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.

Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.

More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.

“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.

Watch, read, listen

‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.

NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.

ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.

Coming up

20-28 June: London climate action week
21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament

Pick of the jobs

Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

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