Despite coal-power output in the US falling to its lowest level in nearly 60 years, the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by just 0.2% in 2024, according to new research from the Rhodium Group.
Increases in electricity demand and continued growth in transport emissions led to US emissions remaining broadly “unchanged”, while the economy grew by 2.7%, the New York-based research group finds.
The US is the world’s second-largest annual emitter, has very high per-capita emissions and by far the greatest historical responsibility for current warming.
Even though emissions remained unchanged from a year earlier, they were still 8% below pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and remained about 20% below 2005 levels, Rhodium notes.
While the pace of decarbonisation slowed in 2024, after a reduction of 1.9% in 2023, new policies and regulations introduced under the Biden administration were expected to see this accelerate in the coming years, Rhodium says.
However, it notes that this progress could now be at risk from the incoming presidency of Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly pledged to roll back a range of environmental policies brought in by his predecessor Joe Biden.
Solar and wind overtake coal
Renewable energy in the US grew in 2024, with the combined output from solar and wind surpassing coal in the electricity mix for the first time ever, according to Rhodium.
Together, solar and wind made up 16% of the electricity mix in 2024, up nearly two percentage points from 2023. Solar generation grew by 32% and wind by 7%, both outpacing the 4% growth in gas generation, the report notes.
Solar had a record-setting year in 2024, accounting for 64% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the US grid in Q3, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association.
However, the rollout of wind generation was hit by notable challenges, including increased costs and project siting difficulties.
Gas-fired electricity generation remained the single-largest source in the US by far, producing a record 1,782 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024, some 43% of the total.
Nuclear was the second-largest, as shown in the figure below. It generated 781TWh, some 19% of the total, just ahead of the combined output of wind and solar, as well as coal.
The growth of wind and solar helped ensure that the generation mix was “slightly cleaner” in 2024, even though demand for electricity rose by 3%, says Rhodium.
Buildings represented the biggest increase in demand for electricity, where a 10% growth in “cooling degree days” – a measure of how hot the temperature is – drove up summer electricity use. (The US saw record-breaking heatwaves across the year, with the summer of 2024 the hottest on record, the Guardian reported.)
After buildings, industry ranked second and commercial buildings third as the biggest sources of increased electricity demand.
There has been a lot of media focus on artificial intelligence (AI) driving electricity demand growth. Moreover, a Department of Energy-commissioned study in December found that US data centre power demand could nearly triple within four years, consuming as much as 12% of the country’s electricity by 2028.
However, Rhodium notes that data centres were only a small source of demand growth in 2024, representing just a fraction of the third biggest source of electricity demand.
In 2024, the additional power demand was met by gas, wind and solar, while coal continued to decline, dropping one percentage point to 16% of the electricity mix.
In absolute terms, coal provided as much power in 2024 as it did in 1967 when Lyndon Baines Johnson was the 36th president of the US, the Vietnam War was raging and Elvis Presley married Priscilla Ann Beaulieu in Las Vegas.
Gas remained the single largest source of power in the US in 2024, accounting for 43% of the total (1 percentage point higher than in 2023), notes Rhodium.
This growth – to meet increased demand – offset the reduction in coal generation and emissions from the power sector increased by 0.2% (3m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, MtCO2e) in 2024.
Alongside the increase in renewable energy, the US saw record-high investment in the manufacturing and deployment of clean technologies last year, Rhodium says.
For example, investment in clean technologies accounted for 5% of total private investment in structures, equipment and durable consumer goods in the third quarter of last year, according to the latest data from the Clean Investment Monitor.
Crude oil production was up by 2.4% in 2024, while gas production fell by 0.6%, according to Rhodium. This was a slightly bigger drop in gas production than in 2020 when the Covid pandemic hit, as producers reacted to lower prices by drilling fewer new wells and curtailing production, it adds.
The research estimates that oil and gas systems released around 10% less methane per unit of output in 2024 than in 2022, due to cleaner production practices as well as state and federal regulations.
As such, cleaning up oil and gas production led to a 3.7% drop in emissions from the sector, some 11MtCOe relative to 2023.
Hurricanes hit industrial emissions
Industrial emissions fell in 2024 due to low manufacturing output, Rhodium finds. Across the year, the sector’s emissions fell by 1.8%, or 22MtCO2e, from 2023.
Chemicals, computers and electronics, and paper production grew in 2024, but declines in food and beverages, mining and machinery offset these gains, it says.
This included historically low coal mining activity, which fell by 12% in 2024 to its lowest level in decades due to demand falling, as coal power plants retire and are replaced by renewables and gas, as noted in the section above.
One factor in declining industrial output was extreme weather. Along with the impact of labour disruption on production, Hurricanes Beryl, Milton and Helene also all hit manufacturing output, notes Rhodium.
Transport remained the highest-emitting sector in the US, with a 0.8% increase in emissions driven by post-pandemic rebounds in jet fuel and petrol consumption, according to Rhodium.
Emissions from transport, industry and buildings have remained relatively steady in recent decades, whereas the power sector has seen steady declines, as shown in the figure below.
“Available seat miles” – a metric used to quantify air travel – set a new record in 2024, up 6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year, according to Rhodium.
There was also “record-high road activity” the report notes, with a 1% increase in road traffic volumes up to October. As such, petrol consumption increased, although diesel continued to fall, dropping close to 2020 levels.
Despite these increases in transportation activity, emissions from the sector still remain 2.%% below 2019 levels.
Building sector emissions increased by 0.4% due to elevated fuel use, Rhodium adds.
Looking ahead
The “modest 2024 decline underscores the urgency of accelerating decarbonisation in all sectors” concludes Rhodium, in particular with the imminent change in US government.
Currently, the US is not on track to meet either its 2030 Paris Agreement target of a 50-52% reduction in emissions relative to 2005 levels or its newly set 2035 goal of a 61-66% reduction.
To bridge the gap between the current US trajectory and its stated goals would require an average emissions reduction of 7.6% every year from 2025 through to 2030, says Rhodium. This would be more than two-thirds of the drop seen as a result of Covid lockdowns in 2020.
Analysts, including Rhodium, have predicted that the combined impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations on vehicles and power plants will increase the pace of emissions reductions in the future.
There is already some evidence of this, with the most recent data from Clean Investment Monitor suggesting that clean energy and transportation investment could reach a high of $71bn in the third quarter of 2024.
This would cap the “nearly unbroken streak of quarter-on-quarter growth since the IRA’s passage, with clean investment now accounting for a record 5% of total US private investment”, notes Rhodium.
However, whether the rate of emissions reduction actually accelerates is heavily dependent on the extent to which the incoming Trump administration and the Republican Congress rollback and repeal EPA regulations and energy and tax policies brought in or expanded through the IRA.
Trump has repeatedly promised to pull back climate policies, saying in September 2024 that “to further defeat inflation, my plan will terminate the Green New Deal, which I call the Green New Scam” in reference to the IRA, according to Politico.
In December, Rhoiodum published a separate piece of research dubbed: “Trump 2.0: What’s in Store for US Energy and Climate?” It explored a number of potential pathways the Trump administration could pursue when he takes office on 20 January, including one called “rollbacks and repeal”.
This pathway would see the pace of US decarbonisation slow significantly, leaving emissions at 24-40% below 2005 levels in 2035. This is equivalent to roughly an additional 1bn tonnes of CO2e in 2035 in each emissions scenario explored by Rhodium.
Rolling back regulations alone could lead to a 270-470MtCO2e increase in emissions by 2035, it adds. This would represent 25-50% of the total emissions increase under the full “rollbacks and repeal” pathway.
Analysis by Carbon Brief in March 2024 found that Trump winning November’s presidential election could lead to a cumulative additional 4bn tonnes of US emissions by 2030, compared to under Bidens’s plans.
Ben King, co-author of the preliminary emissions analysis and Trump 2.0 note, and an associate director in Rhodium Group’s energy and climate practice, tells Carbon Brief:
“It’s not clear what precise policy actions the Trump administration and Republican-controlled Congress will take, but we analysed the potential impacts of two major policy changes: rolling back major climate regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and repealing the energy and tax policies that were enhanced and expanded through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Rolling back EPA climate regulations alone – which the Trump administration could pursue unilaterally, though not immediately – could increase greenhouse gas emissions by 270-470MtCO2e in 2035.
“A more extreme policy pathway, rolling back EPA regulations and immediately repealing the energy and tax components of the IRA – which would require congressional approval – could increase emissions by nearly 1GtCO2e in 2035.”
Rhodium concludes its analysis of the US’s emissions in 2024 by noting that it will be watching developments around rolling back and repealing climate policies “closely”.
The post US emissions ‘unchanged’ in 2024 despite coal power at lowest level since 1967 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/us-emissions-unchanged-in-2024-despite-coal-power-at-lowest-level-since-1967/
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.
Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”
The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.
The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.
Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.
Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.
Green reconstruction of Gaza
Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.
While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.
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The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.
But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.
With occupation, targets conditional
In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.
Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.
Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.
That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.
To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.
In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.
To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.
The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.
The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.
The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.
The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.
Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.
This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.
Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.
June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.
It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.
In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.
According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.
Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.
June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.
As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.
The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.
In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.
(Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)
According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.
This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.
In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.
Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.
Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:
“[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.
Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.
* This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.
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The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.
Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.
This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.
Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.
In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.
French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.
The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.
Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.
Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.
This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:
“In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.
Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.
The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.
Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.
The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.
The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.
The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.
ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.
Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.
Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.
Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.
ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.
Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.
Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.
The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.
The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.
This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.
Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.
6. Declines in EU grains since 2025
Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.
Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.
Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.
Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.
The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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