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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Energy priorities in 2025 

XI SPEAKS: President Xi Jinping underscored China’s low-carbon technology success in his new year’s address for 2025, mentioning that China “produced more than 10m new energy vehicles” (NEVs, including electric and plug-in hybrids) in 2024, the state-run newspaper China Daily said. On 1 January, the party’s leading magazine on ideology, Qiushi, published the transcript of one of Xi’s speeches, in which he called on China to “advance an ecology-first, resource-conserving and green and low-carbon approach to development”, adding that China must “actively yet prudently work towards” its “dual carbon” goal.

PRIORITY TASKS: The national energy work conference – in which the top planning body the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) set objectives for the next year – was held in mid-December, according to International Energy Net. At the same meeting, the NEA set “10 key energy priorities” for the new year, including “implementing the energy law”, the Communist party-sponsored People’s Daily said in its coverage of the conference. (Read more about China’s new energy law below.) International Energy Net’s coverage reported that 2025 priorities included to “accelerate” construction of an energy system based on the need for “security and abundance” and the “economic feasibility” of low-carbon energy, as well as to vigorously promote “development and utilisation” of renewables. In a separate NDRC work conference, the body pledged to “accelerate” the shifting towards “dual-control” of carbon and “push forward carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green expansion”, Shanghai Securities News said.

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GREEN AGENDAS: Elsewhere, the Ministry of Finance (MOF)’s annual work conference emphasised financial support for “green and low-carbon transformation”, International Energy Net reported. MOF may release a 3tn yuan ($411bn) stimulus package this year that, according to Reuters, will have a large portion dedicated to electric vehicles (EVs) and “green energy”. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) work conference highlighted the need for “innovation” to “cultivate and grow emerging industries”, a category that usually includes low-carbon technology, according to a state news agency Xinhua readout.

NATIONAL NETWORK: A recent policy document issued by the NDRC urged China to build a national unified market covering a number of economic and regulatory issues, BJX News reported, including calls to build a unified energy system. The policy added that China must ensure the construction of a unified power system, as well as establishing a “fair and open” national oil and gas market system. Bloomberg explained that the initiative has been in progess for years.

Landmark law now in force 

NEW YEAR’S REGULATION: On 1 January, China’s first energy law came into force, China News reported, saying the move “helps ensure national energy security and serves as a cornerstone for promoting a green and low-carbon transition”. The law, it added, “includes hydrogen energy in national legislation for the first time, defining its role as an energy source”. China Energy Net quoted an NEA official saying the law would promote both the “development of non-fossil energy” and the ”clean and efficient use of coal”.

EXPERT VOICES: Prof Alex Wang, faculty co-director of the Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, told Carbon Brief that, in general, Chinese law normally “consolidates” existing “successful” policy, rather than setting new policy directions. North China Electric Power University’s Prof Wang Peng wrote in China Power News Net that the law is a symbol supporting development of “explicit goals for carbon emissions and renewable energy use”, and will lead to the provision of “specific guidelines for developing” renewable energy and strengthening of “mechanisms for green energy consumption”. Industry news outlet BJX News republished a commentary by China Coal chairman Wang Shudong arguing that the law “strengthens the role of coal as a basic guarantor [of energy security]”.

Renewable energy buildout

SOLAR LEAP: China installed more than 200 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in 2024, according to industry newspaper China Energy Net. The country installed more than 300GW of renewable energy capacity in 2024, the party-affiliated People’s Daily reported, with China’s total solar and wind capacity now standing at 840GW and 510GW, respectively. A separate NDRC and NEA policy document called for China to add more than 200GW of “new energy” each year between 2025 and 2027, at a utilisation rate of 90%, said BJX News.

MISSED OPPORTUNITY: Despite the growth of renewables, China’s power generation from fossil fuels “inched up 1.9% year-on-year” between January and November, Reuters reported. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, wrote on Bluesky that this was likely due to a “major increase in curtailment” of wind and solar, and particularly a rise in unreported curtailment. This, he added, indicates that the “grid is struggling to integrate” new renewable capacity additions and that “official curtailment tracking seems to be prone to manipulation”.

HYDROGEN ‘AT SCALE’: Elsewhere, China Energy News reported, MIIT released a new plan for accelerating the use of hydrogen in China’s industry, calling for the country to have “clean and low-carbon hydrogen to be applied at scale” by 2027 in areas including certain metals and coal-chemical industries. It added that China will also aim to use hydrogen for “industrial green microgrids, ships, aviation [and] rail transport”.

MEGADAM: Separately, China has approved “construction of what will be the world’s largest hydropower dam” along a river in Tibet, according to Reuters. The newswire added that the project “could produce 300 terawatt hours of electricity annually” – equivalent to the UK’s total annual demand – but could also “affect millions downstream in India and Bangladesh”. A Bloomberg commentary by columnist David Fickling said that the dam, despite its size, would be “simply too small to move the needle” on China’s “insatiable appetite for coal”.

Driving the economy 

HOLIDAY SPLURGE: According to finance news outlet Yicai, Chinese EV giant BYD sold 4.3m vehicles in 2024. An end-of-year surge in EV purchases occurred in China due to the “nationwide buying spree” ahead of the end of a consumer goods trade-in policy that subsidised consumers’ replacement of petrol cars with EVs, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported. The January sales have already slowed down, said China Consumer Journal. Nevertheless, the Financial Times predicted that in 2025 EVs could, for the first time, “outsell” traditional fuel cars in China, with domestic EV sales expected to exceed 12m cars compared to less than 11m for petrol cars.

GROWTH SUPPORT: The government has subsequently “renewed a trade-in subsidy of up to 20,000 yuan ($2,730)” for EVs and hybrid cars, Bloomberg said. The People’s Daily reported that China will ensure that EVs make up “no less than 30%” of government car purchases “in principle”. Meanwhile, a draft proposal “restricting the export of technologies used in the production of lithium-ion batteries” has been issued, business newspaper Caixin said, which, if adopted, could “further cement China’s dominance” in the sector. A new discovery of large lithium reserves in Tibet has made China the “world’s second-largest holder” of the metal behind Chile, according to SCMP.

OVERCAPACITY: Separately, SCMP cited a prominent Chinese policymaker suggesting China should take action to abate “involution” – unnecessary internal competition – that is currently affecting several industries, including solar. The People’s Daily also carried a commentary on economic growth with the byline “benbao pinglunyuan” (本报评论员), meaning it was written by “top staff” and represents views at senior levels of the Communist party. It also asked local policymakers to stop “involution” by “not only focusing on the new three” of solar, batteries and EVs.

Captured

China emitted 11.6bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2021, according to the country’s first biennial transparency report, which was submitted to the UN in early January. The report follows new reporting rules under the Paris Agreement, which require more regular and more timely information on emissions and progress towards tackling them. China had previously only reported its greenhouse gas inventory up to 2017.

Spotlight 

Experts: What will 2025 bring for China’s energy and climate policy?

Last year was significant for energy and climate developments in China. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth hovered close to 2023 levels throughout the year, raising the possibility of China’s CO2 emissions peaking before 2030. On the global stage, China played a prominent role in getting to an agreement at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Entering 2025, China has pledged to accelerate its energy transition. In this issue, Carbon Brief asks leading experts what they are watching for from China over the year ahead. Their responses have been edited for length and clarity. A full-length version of the article is available on the Carbon Brief website.

Dr Muyi Yang, senior electricity policy analyst for China, Ember

In 2025, China will need to strike a delicate balance between sustaining economic growth and advancing its decarbonisation agenda. This balancing act will require more than just scaling up renewables such as wind, solar and energy storage – coal power, which has long been central to China’s energy security and economic activity, also requires a major transformation.

This is not simply about shuttering a handful of coal-fired power plants, but managing the broader tensions and conflicts arising from the decline of the coal-electricity ecosystem. The impacts will extend to power generators, logistics companies, mining firms, equipment manufacturers and the coal-chemical industry, along with the socio-economic systems built around them. As China approaches a critical turning point – envisioning the start of absolute coal consumption reductions during the next five-year plan period – it must begin planning for this transition now.

Prof Boqiang Lin, dean, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy

In 2025, China’s energy and climate developments will focus on advancing its “dual-carbon” goals through several key initiatives. The deployment of “new energy” will accelerate, with offshore wind power, distributed solar and decentralised wind power seeing significant growth…Efforts to promote the “clean and efficient use” of coal will also progress, with coal power continuing to support the significant growth in wind and solar power.

Energy storage technologies and the development of smart grids will expand, while development of virtual power plants and large-scale vehicle-to-grid pilots will enhance grid efficiency and energy interaction. The supporting infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) will also receive more attention to support the rapid increase in EV penetration.

Dr Ilaria Mazzocco, deputy director and senior fellow with the trustee chair in Chinese business and economics, Center for Strategic & International Studies

What I’m looking out for is how China manages its increasingly tense external commercial relations and the growing demand internationally for Chinese foreign direct investment. Clean technologies, particularly the “new three” of solar, lithium-ion batteries and EVs, are at the heart of this tension.

The brewing global conflict over the future of climate technology manufacturing and trade will depend in no small part on developments in the industries in China, including domestic demand and profitability of Chinese firms. Just as important are the types of trade-offs and deals that China’s trade partners, including the US, will lean towards [in their China policy going forward].

Dr Angel Hsu, associate professor of public policy and environment, ecology and energy, University of North Carolina

I am enthusiastic about the prospects for continued subnational cooperation between China and the US in climate and energy policies, especially following the strong interest shown at COP29. The numerous technical exchanges between states like Washington and the Chinese delegation…are promising developments. Plans are already in place to sustain this dialogue into 2025, building on the progress made this past year.

I am particularly eager to see how third-party countries and regions can serve as neutral grounds for collaboration. With the US likely stepping back from climate engagement, there’s a significant opportunity for increased alignment between China and ASEAN [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations], for example. China’s proactive approach at COP29, especially regarding voluntary climate financing, positions it well to lead in supporting south-east Asian nations in their decarbonisation efforts.

Dr Christoph Nedopil, director and professor of economics, Griffith Asia Institute

For 2025, China’s engagement in green energy will likely flourish in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), driven by the growing energy transition needs of partner countries. In Indonesia, for instance, president Prabowo’s accelerated green energy plan announced in December 2024 and newly signed agreements with China highlight the role of targeted collaboration with China in addressing local energy priorities. This includes investments not only in renewable energy, but also in critical technologies such as battery manufacturing.

I also hope we can make progress on three challenges: first, simultaneously accelerating investment in low-carbon energy and phase-down investment in fossil fuels; second, helping local employees benefit more from the green energy transition, particularly with more western trade restrictions; and, third, how can we accelerate greening of industrial and captive energy in the BRI.

Watch, read, listen

WHO’S NEXT?: A commentary in Jiemian listed the challenges various industries face when entering the national carbon market in China.

MUSHROOMING POWER: David Fishman, senior manager at the Lantau Group, spoke to the Odd Lots podcast about the levers behind China’s rapid buildout of nuclear power.

SHOW ME THE MONEY: A new report co-authored by Ma Jun, president of the Beijing-based Institute of Finance and Sustainability for the CFA Institute, examined how one Chinese city used innovative finance mechanisms to decarbonise its heavy industry.

DECEMBER DEBRIEF: Caixin published an English version of its interview with Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin, covering China’s view of the COP29 climate finance commitment, its future climate targets and China’s role in future climate negotiations.


10.92

In Celsius, the average temperature in China in 2024, which was the “warmest year on record, according to the China Meteorological Administration (CMA)”, China Daily reported. It added that “global warming is the primary reason for China recording above-average temperatures”, with China’s previous four years being the country’s “top four warmest years” since records began in 1961.


New science 

China’s current carbon inequality is predominantly determined by capital disparity
Ecological Economics

The top 20% of China’s urban residents by income, who account for nearly 10% of the country’s population, are responsible for 33% of the country’s investment-related carbon emissions, a new study has found. Meanwhile, the lowest 20% of rural residents, who comprise 8.6% of the total population, contribute only 2% of these emissions, it said. The authors stated that most existing literature on China’s carbon inequality has “primarily concentrated on the inequality of household consumption-related emissions” while overlooking emissions related to investment. The paper’s findings, they add, suggest that emissions reduction efforts “should focus on the capital/investment of high-income groups”.

Carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes and product use are a non-ignorable factor in China’s mitigation

Communications Earth & Environment 

China’s CO2 emissions from industrial processes and product use (IPPU) exceeded 1,600m tonnes in 2020, according to new research. This estimate is 3.0-6.5% higher than estimates from other studies, according to the authors. The figure was reached using statistics taken from “18 industrial productions and two product uses” between 2000 and 2020. The study also identified a number of areas that could be key to mitigating IPPU emissions in future.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 9 January 2025: 2025 government priorities; China’s first energy law; What to watch in year ahead appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 9 January 2025: 2025 government priorities; China’s first energy law; What to watch in year ahead

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Climate Change

Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change

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Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.

Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”

The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.

On beaches of Gaza and Tel Aviv, two tales of one heatwave

The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.

Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.

A displaced Palestinian child fills water containers on July 2, 2026 in Gaza City, Gaza. (Photo by Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images)

Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.

Green reconstruction of Gaza

Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.

While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.

    The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.

    But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.

    With occupation, targets conditional

    In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.

    Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.

    Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.

    That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.

    To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.

    In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.

    A bus rapid transit system in Sao Paulo (Flickr/EMBARQ BRASIL)

    To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.

    The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.

    The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.

    The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.

    The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Climate Change

    Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026

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    Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.

    Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.

    Line chart showing that UK solar generation reached an all-time high during record-hot summer 2026

    Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.

    This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.

    Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.

    June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.

    It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.

    In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.

    According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.

    Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

    While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.

    June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.

    As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.

    The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.

    In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.

    (Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)

    According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.

    This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.

    In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.

    Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.

    Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:

    “[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.

    Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.

    * This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.

    The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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    Climate Change

    How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts

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    Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.

    Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.

    This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.

    Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

    Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.

    In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.

    1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

    2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields

    3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave

    4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026

    5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low

    6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

    Article Contents

    1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

    Bar chart showing that France is due to see the largest drops in cereal production in the EU in 2026. The bar chart shows that France's cereal production in 2026 has dropped -7.7 Mt of followed by Germany (-3.5 Mt), Poland (-3.2 Mt), Spain (-2.9 Mt), and Hungary (-2.6)
    Changes in cereal production in 26 EU countries between 2025 and 2026. Malta is excluded due to a lack of available data. Source: European Commission.

    France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.

    French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.

    The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.

    Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.

    Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.

    This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:

    “In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”

    2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields

    Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.

    Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.

    The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.

    Bar chart showing that Slovakia and Austria are due to see the largest cereal yield declines in 2026. The bar chart shows that both Slovakia and Austria have seen their cereal yields drop -1.3 tonnes per hectare over 2025-26.
    Changes in cereal yields in 26 EU countries between 2025 and 2026. Malta is excluded due to a lack of available data. Source: European Commission.

    Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.

    The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.

    3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave

    The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.

    Bar chart showing that the June heatwave in 2026 led to around €2bn in cereal production losses in Europe. The bar chart shows that France is the EU country that lost the most revenue, with an estimated loss of €891 million, followed by Hungary (with an estimated loss of €444 million) and Spain (with an estimated loss of €276)
    Estimates of revenue lost due to changes in production forecasts between June and July 2026. Source: ECIU.

    The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.

    The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.

    ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.

    Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.

    Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.

    4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026

    If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.

    Line chart showing that UK cereal yields could hit lowest levels since at least 1990 this year.
    Yields of cereals and oilseed rape in the UK over 1990-2026. Source: Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.

    Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.

    ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.

    Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.

    Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.

    5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low

    France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.

    The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.

    The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.

    Line chart showing that maize production in France is due to reach lowest levels since 1980
    Maize production in France over 1980-2026. Source: Agreste.

    This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.

    Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.

    6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

    Chart showing that EU cereal production is set to reduce by 9% in 2026.
    Production of cereal crops in Europe over 1993-2026. The “other” category includes oats, rye, sorghum, millet and buckwheat. Source: European Commission.

    Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.

    Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.

    Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.

    Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.

    The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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