More than half of the 27 million carbon credits produced by one of the world’s largest offsetting projects did not correspond to actual emission reductions, leading carbon registry Verra has said following a two-year review of Zimbabwe’s Kariba forest protection initiative.
Verra is now seeking compensation for the millions of “excess” credits from Carbon Green Investments (CGI) – the project’s developer – after the registry’s technical analysis found the threat to the forest had been overstated in the project’s original forecast.
The Kariba REDD+ project, which aims to protect an area 10 times the size of New York City, has long faced accusations by several media outlets and carbon market analysts of exaggerating its climate credentials through flawed carbon accounting and of failing to provide promised benefits to local communities.
The conservation project stretches across national parks, forest reserves and wildlife corridors along the southern shore of Lake Kariba in the Zambezi River basin in northern Zimbabwe.
Dozens of big companies, including Gucci, Volkswagen, Nestlé and Dutch electricity firm Greenchoice, bought millions of Kariba’s credits and used them to offset part of their own emissions and back up various green assertions.
Overstated deforestation risk
According to a report by Bloomberg, the project generated more than $100 million in revenue after being set up over a decade ago by South Pole, a major Swiss carbon credits broker, and CGI, which is run by a Zimbabwean businessman. South Pole walked away from Kariba in late 2023 when Verra suspended the project and began an internal review following an investigation by The New Yorker magazine.
Nearly two years later, Verra announced last week that its review had found 57% of Kariba’s nearly 27 million credits were issued “in excess”. That is because the actual deforestation observed in a reference area chosen by Kariba’s project developers to predict how much CO2 the scheme would conserve was “significantly lower” than initially estimated, Verra said.
This calculation is known as the baseline against which a project’s performance is assessed. Critics have repeatedly questioned the accounting method and said flawed methodologies compromise the integrity of carbon offsets. Previous studies by independent rating agencies suggested Kariba may have produced as many as 30 times more credits than it should have done by exaggerating the threat to forests that were never really at risk.
Compensation process
Verra said last week that, despite finding them worthless, the millions of “excess” credits already used by buyers would remain valid. But, at the same time, the carbon registry has requested CGI to compensate for them by buying and cancelling an equivalent number of credits from other projects.
Verra “received a positive response related to this process” from CGI, a spokesperson subsequently told Climate Home News, without giving further details.
CGI’s founder, Zimbabwean tycoon Steve Wentzel, did not reply to a request for comment. In an online statement, CGI said it remains dedicated to Kariba’s “mission of forest conservation” and “committed to continue working toward resolutions that uphold the highest standards”.
The company also said it had asked Verra for a “moratorium” on the compensation process until it reviews the registry’s carbon assessment.
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Separately, Verra also invited the holders of nearly 5 million Kariba credits that have been purchased but not yet used for offsetting to “voluntarily” eliminate those credits, which in that case would be counted towards the compensation.
South Pole, CGI’s former partner in the scheme, said last week it had asked Verra to cancel 2.5 million credits it still held “to help address the discrepancies in issued credits and uphold the environmental integrity of the project”.
‘Big concerns’ remain
But Jonathan Crook, at the nonprofit Carbon Market Watch (CMW), said Verra’s handling of the Kariba case leaves many questions unanswered and raises big concerns.
“It is not clear what, if anything concrete, will happen if CGI refuses this request [for compensation], thereby raising real questions over whether anyone will actually be held liable, which would be a shockingly inappropriate outcome to this scandal,” he added.
Verra has a patchy track record in obtaining compensation from discredited projects. Nearly 2 million phantom credits linked to failed methane-cutting rice cultivation projects in China have yet to be paid back more than a year since Verra shut down the schemes and sought recompense from their developers.
As Climate Home revealed last year, energy giant Shell was directly involved in the projects and used the majority of the credits to offset – on paper – real greenhouse gas emissions created by its vast fossil fuel operations.
Climate Home understands that Verra is still pursuing compensation for the excess credits from the companies involved in the rice cultivation projects, but there is no fixed timeline for the process to be completed.
Questions over permanence
CMW’s Crook also raised concerns over the future integrity of the remaining 11.6 million Kariba credits deemed by Verra’s review to be of good quality. An underlying principle of REDD+ projects is that carbon stored in forests must be maintained over a long period of time – up to a century – to reliably offset the release of fossil carbon.
But, with the Kariba project no longer registered with Verra, any carbon supposedly conserved through the scheme now “faces a significant risk of being re-released into the atmosphere over the coming years and decades without any clear solution to remedy the situation”, Crook added.
More than 5 million credits from the Kariba project had been kept in a so-called buffer pool, an insurance fund with credits set aside for unexpected losses in stored carbon.
Verra said it had decided to “take pre-emptive action” and cancel all those credits. Additionally, a monitoring system will track deforestation in the project area in the years ahead and extra credits will be cancelled if observed forest loss goes beyond Kariba’s contributions to the buffer pool, the registry said.
“We are following our processes to ensure integrity and deliver what is right for the climate and communities,” the Verra spokesperson added.
The post Zimbabwe forest carbon megaproject generated millions of junk credits appeared first on Climate Home News.
Zimbabwe forest carbon megaproject generated millions of junk credits
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New data shows rich nations likely missed 2025 goal to double adaptation finance
New data on international climate finance for 2023 and 2024 suggests that wealthy countries are highly unlikely to have met their pledge to double funding for adaptation in developing nations to around $40 billion a year by 2025 amid cuts to their overseas aid budgets.
At the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021, all countries agreed to “urge” developed nations to at least double their funding for adaptation in developing countries from 2019 levels of around $20 billion by 2025. Funding for adaptation has lagged behind money to help reduce emissions and remains the dark spot even as the data showed overall climate finance rose to a record $136.7 billion in 2024.
A United Nations Environment Programme report warned last year that wealthy nations were likely to miss the adaptation finance target and the data released on Thursday by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows that in 2024 adaptation finance was just under $35 billion.
The OECD, an intergovernmental policy forum for wealthy countries, said the increase between 2022 and 2024 was “modest”, adding that meeting the doubling target would require “strong growth” of close to 20% in 2025.
More cuts likely
The OECD’s figures do not go up to 2025, but several nations announced cuts to climate finance last year. The most notable was the abandonment of US pledges to international climate funds by the new Trump administration but the UK, France, Germany and other wealthy European countries also pared back their contributions.
Joe Thwaites, international finance director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said developed countries were “not on track” to meet the adaptation funding goal.
Power Shift Africa director Mohamed Adow said adaptation finance is needed to expand flood defences, drought-resistant crops, early warning systems and resilient health services as the world warms, bringing more extreme weather and rising seas. “When that money fails to arrive, people lose homes, harvests and livelihoods – and in the worst cases, their lives,” he warned.
Imane Saidi, a senior researcher at the North Africa-based Imal Initiative, called the $35 billion in adaptation finance in 2024 “a drop in the ocean”, considering that the United Nations estimates the annual adaptation needs of developing countries at between $215 billion and $387 billion.
If confirmed, a failure to meet the goal is likely to further strain relations between developed and developing countries within the UN climate process. A previous pledge to provide $100 billion a year of total climate finance by 2020 was only met two years late, a failure labelled “dismal” by the UAE’s COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber and many other Global South diplomats.
Missing that goal would also raise doubts about donor governments’ commitment to meeting their new post-2025 adaptation finance goal. At COP30 last year, governments agreed to urge developed countries to triple adaptation finance – without defining the baseline – by 2035.
African and other developing countries have pointed to lack of funding as a key flaw in ongoing attempts to set indicators to measure progress on adapting to climate change.
Speaking to climate ministers from around the world in Copenhagen on Wednesday, Turkish COP31 President Murat Kurum stressed the importance of climate finance. “It is easy to say we support global climate action,” he said, “but promises must be kept.”
He said the COP31 Presidency will use the new Global Implementation Accelerator and recommendations in the Baku-to-Belem roadmap, published last year, to scale up climate finance – and will hold donors accountable for their collective finance goals.
He noted that developed countries should this year submit their first reports showing how they will deliver their “fair share” of the new broader finance goal set at COP29 in 2024, to deliver $300 billion a year in climate finance by 2035. They are due to report on this once every two years.
Broader climate finance
The OECD data shows that the overall amount of climate finance – including funding for emissions cuts – provided by developed countries grew fast in 2023 before declining in 2024. In contrast, the amount of private finance developed countries say they “mobilised” increased in both 2023 and 2024, pushing the top-line figure to a record high.
While the OECD does not say which countries provided what amounts, data from the ODI Global think-tank suggests that the 2024 cuts to bilateral climate finance were spread broadly among wealthy nations.
Thwaites of NRDC welcomed the fact that overall climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries exceeded $130 billion in both 2023 and 2024. He said that this was “well above earlier projections” and “shows that when rich countries work together, they can over-achieve on climate finance goals”.
But Sehr Raheja, programme officer at the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment, said these figures are “modest” when set against the new $300-billion goal.
“While the headline total figure of climate finance remains alright,” she said, “declining bilateral climate spending raises important questions about the predictability of high-quality, concessional public finance, which has consistently been a key demand of the Global South.”
She also lamented that loans continue to dominate public climate finance and that mobilised private finance is concentrated in middle-income countries and on emissions-reduction measures rather than adaptation projects. “Private capital continues to follow bankability rather than climate vulnerability or need,” she added.
Ritu Bharadwaj, climate finance and resilience researcher at the International Institute for Environment and Development, said the figures painted an outdated picture as climate finance has since declined as rich countries shrink their overseas aid budgets and increase spending on defence.
Last month, the OECD published figures showing that international aid – which includes climate finance – fell by nearly a quarter in 2025. The US was responsible for three-quarters of this decline. The OECD projects a further decline in 2026.
With Thursday’s climate finance report, the OECD is “publishing a victory lap for 2023 and 2024 at almost the same moment its own aid statistics show the funding base eroding underneath it,” Bharadwaj said.
The post New data shows rich nations likely missed 2025 goal to double adaptation finance appeared first on Climate Home News.
New data shows rich nations likely missed 2025 goal to double adaptation finance
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