Two days after the COP28 climate summit concluded on 13 December, Carbon Brief convened its team of specialist journalists to discuss the key outcomes of the two-week event in Dubai.
More than 1,300 people joined the webinar to hear about how issues such as the global stocktake, finance and adaptation featured at the talks, as well as how major nations such as China, India and the US approached the negotiations.
Carbon Brief published its detailed summary of the key outcomes hours after COP28 ended, outlining everything that happened both inside and outside the negotiating rooms.
A second in-depth piece zooming in on the outcomes for food, forests, land and nature at COP28 was published later in the week.
Eight Carbon Brief journalists and editors were on the ground throughout the summit and they all featured in the webinar.
A recording of the webinar (below) is now available to watch on YouTube.
The webinar was moderated by Carbon Brief’s editor and director, Leo Hickman, and featured the following Carbon Brief journalists:
- Dr Simon Evans, senior policy editor and deputy editor
- Daisy Dunne, special correspondent
- Josh Gabbatiss, policy correspondent
- Molly Lempriere, section editor for policy
- Dr Giuliana Viglione, section editor for food, land and nature
- Aruna Chandrasekhar, land, food systems and nature reporter
- Orla Dwyer, land, food systems and nature reporter
- Anika Patel, China analyst
Dr Simon Evans explained the “global stocktake” and, in particular, what it said about fossil fuels.
Daisy Dunne discussed the controversies around COP28 being held in a petrostate and the presidency being held by Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
Josh Gabbatiss spoke about the role of finance at this year’s COP – including the launch of the loss-and-damage fund. He also detailed the “global goal on adaptation”, which was given the green light in Dubai.
Molly Lempriere discussed a pledge by 130 countries to triple renewables by 2030. She also delved into the mitigation work programme.
Anika Patel followed China’s role in Dubai and analysed the country’s priorities at COP28 talks.
Aruna Chandrasekhar detailed India’s approach at COP28, looking ahead to the role the country will play at COP29 in Azerbaijan next year.
Orla Dwyer discussed the dynamics around civil society and activists in Dubai where protests are banned.
Dr Giuliana Viglione talked about how food was brought to the table in Dubai in a more significant way than at previous COPs.
Q&A
The Carbon Brief team also fielded questions from the audience and, where possible, answered them in writing within the webinar’s Q&A panel.
Below is an unedited copy of those questions and answers. The questioners’ names have been initialised, as have those of the Carbon Brief journalists:
PG: Isn’t what was agreed massively short of what is needed? The Saudi’s agreed to the wording because it allowed them to continue on a ‘business as usual’ basis, didn’t they?
SE: As we wrote in our summary, the wording on fossil fuels was probably as ambitious as it could have been – barring significant movement on new finance. More importantly, only countries themselves can implement action on the ground – the COP can’t do that. So the key test comes when countries submit their next climate pledges, by the end of 2025.
ML: Do the petrostates condemn all future COPs to achieving no more than incremental progress?
SE: I would say it’s important to note that there are 195 parties at the COP, each with their own priorities, red lines and compromises to make. So while individual countries or groups can veto decisions, there is rarely a single villain, due to the wide range of decisions being taken.
CBM: Could a COP ever be in a low lying island? Seychelles?
SE: The host rotates through five world regions. Fiji held the presidency in 2017 at COP23, but the summit was held in Bonn, Germany.
ME: With FT reporting ‘Big oil welcomes COP28 call to move away from fossil fuels in ‘orderly’ way’ – should cutting FF subsidies be the focus for the next COP?
SE: The stocktake does call on countries to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not support energy poverty “as soon as possible”, and this topic has come up repeatedly eg it was in the COP26 outcome, but I’m sure the focus on subsidies will continue – and for good reason.
EW: Like others, I am a bit surprised that people are pretending to be impressed by a statement of the obvious. With a different chair do you think we could have got something stronger.
SE: The presidency does play a big role at the COP but ultimately it’s a party-led process and if enough countries say they want something on the agenda, it’s hard for the presidency to stop that happening. (Last year at COP27 was a big different because attempts to address fossil fuels were in the “cover text”, which isn’t formally on the agenda and so the presidency has a bigger say on what’s in it)
MA: How close or how far will this deal land us in 1,5C?
SE: “IEA, ETC and CAT (sorry for acroynms) released analysis of COP28 pledges during the summit, see our summary. The tripling renewables and doubling efficiency one is the most significant, see this analysis we published before the COP to see why.
I think the CAT analysis said COP28 pledges closed around 1/3 of the gap to 1.5C, but it’s hard to quantify the “transitioning away from FF” part until we see the next country pledges.
EG: Is it not much better to focus on national government action and largely ignore the COP process which has never created a binding agreement at the level needed to ensure survival. At every COP we slip backwards again. The annual COP jamboree also distracts attention from the desperately urgent action we need on a national basis immediately. Ed Gemmell, Leader, the Climate Party in UK
AC: The Paris Agreement is in fact ALL about national government action, which is why they’re called NDCs or nationally determined contributions. After 2020, countries were supposed to start implementing their national pledges and will have to set new ones for 2025. COPs are where countries come together to set targets, review pledges and any binding commitments (including on finance), reflect on collective progress or the lack of it, and share knowledge and support and experiences. If you separate “jamboreee” from the actual negotiations, it is the one space, where once-a-year, ALL countries have a seat at the table to discuss climate actions and decisions are arrived at multilaterally.
TY: Did the global stocktake reveal which countries are particularly behind and what progress has been made in Europe? The implementation of the Global Stocktake has been reported by a lot of news papers, but I don’t think much detail has been reported.
SE: The stocktake was not really focused on national-level progress (or lack thereof) because countries didn’t want to be put in the spotlight / have their homework marked.
TM: Did the UK make any useful or significant contribution to COP28?
SE: The UK’s lead negotiator Alison Campbell was the co-chair of the stocktake negotiations, so she played a big role in the outcome (though the presidency took over the task into week two)
BM: As the phrase on transitioning away from foossil fuels has an extension, saying “so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;” doesn’t that make this statement more meaningful? Net zero CO2 is needed for limiting warming to 1,5 C, so the whole sentence actually says that the transition away of fossil fuel should be realised by 2050, which is exactly what is needed. I know the “call upon Parties” context makes this whole statement rather weak, but nevertheless
SE: Thanks for the question Bert, yes you are correct, but nevertheless the key test will come with next country pledges.
EW: One of the main reactions I am getting from lay-friends is that the jamboree of thousands of people using carbon to fly to the COP is a terrible look. Is there any prospect of the COP being reformed so that it still achieves its goals but with 10-100 times fewer participants?
SE: This is definitely a very live question about how the COP is run. However, it’s worth emphasising that the amount of carbon associated with flights to the summit is not even a rounding error compared with annual global emissions (I think I worked it out as thousandths of a percent). Given the role of Paris and COPs generally in helping bend the curve on emissions, even small impacts on future warming would easily make all those flights worth it.
SC: Having documentation on exactly which countries were initially willing to sign up for “fossil fuel phase out” would be politically useful. Is that information available somewhere?
SE: “Yes, check out these pieces…
- COP28 DeBriefed 8 December: The fight over fossil fuels; Al Jaber defends ‘respect’ for science; Has COP ever finished on time?
- Q&A: Why defining the ‘phaseout’ of ‘unabated’ fossil fuels is so important at COP28
ML: What is the US rationale for its low $ commitment to the L&D fund relative to rich peers? Are they committing more elsewhere as an alternative for example?
SE: Republicans control the House, which holds the purse strings…
IR: do you think the outcomes would have been different if the president had not been distracted by having to defend himself agnst allegations of side deals etc? it did look as if he was getting somewhere at first.
SE: I would say the initial progress early on opened out space for the fight on fossil fuels. There are always big ups and downs in terms of progress at the COP so I wouldn’t read too much into this specific presidency on that.
NG: Why are developing countries not content with the L&D fund being held at the World Bank, and why would they prefer the UN?
SE: check out our Q&A here: Q&A: The fight over the ‘loss-and-damage fund’ for climate change
CP: John Kerry, the US climate envoy, is 80 and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, will be retiring next year. Who would take their place when these two people are no longer around and what could this mean for US-Chinese climate relations movng forward?
SE: I don’t think we know wrt Kerry but Liu Zhenmin is due to replace Xie Zhenhua, per our summary…COP28: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Dubai
FM: Did (any) actions/speeches/etc. by the UK COP delegates give us any new insight as to the future approach of the UK to domestic climate action?
SE: I am not we gained any particular insights into the current government’s plans on climate, to be honest.
RE: If you have time, would you please talk about the issues blocking decisions related to the market mechanisms (A6.2 and 6.4)? Thank you.
SE: Thanks Ricardo, we addressed this briefly in our summary. For 6.2 it’s about whether to have process or control over how countries trade carbon with each other. The US was pushing for few rules while the EU, AILAC and others wanted the opposite. Some parties say attempting to put limits on the process goes against the mandate in this area. Big divides. Hard to see a way forward. On 6.4, the key stumbling block was on rules around carbon removals. I would expect those to be sorted out at COP29. Here’s a direct link to the relevant bit of our summary: COP28: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Dubai – Article 6
AL: How will the doubling of energy efficiency be measured?
SE: The IEA already tracks the rate of improvement of efficiency, so I assume it’d be similar. I believe it’s an energy intensity measure. Q&A: Why deals at COP28 to ‘triple renewables’ and ‘double efficiency’ are crucial for 1.5C
CV: Do you actually feel we see a reduction in burning of fossil fuels as a direct outcome from this COP?
SE: It’s hard to judge until we see the next round of climate pledges, but narratives definitely matter because investors, markets, etc are people too and so they are influenced by what other people are saying.
CM: Whicvh are the ‘pressure points’ that climate justice action and campaign groups should be aiming at now post COP 28?
SE: The next round of NDCs (national climate pledges) due by end of 2025 are key. So – every natoinal govt is a pressure point.
VP: Is it so automatic that “triplicating renewables means move away from fossil fuels”? I am afraid that maybe fossil fuels will continue to be used as usual, while triplicating renewables (that today are not very important globally) will allow to continue being a highly energy consuming civilization worldwide. Can you comment on this?
SE: The IEA sees tripling renewables as a key lever. While you are correct that one does not automatically follow the other, we’d not be likely to see cuts in fossil fuel use unless alternative energy sources rapidly scale up. Q&A: Why deals at COP28 to ‘triple renewables’ and ‘double efficiency’ are crucial for 1.5C
JR: Doesn’t the tripling of world nuclear capacity fit in this section, not only RE
SE: We did cover this pledge, but it was explicitly aspirational and only signed up to by a small number of countries
JK: How important are the ‘side-deals’ at COP? Often multi-lateral deals are made on specific issues between groups of nations, like sustainable agricultural practices, water table monitoring frameworks, etc?
SE: The key issue with the side deals is the lack of accountability. Obv even national pledges lack binding accountability, but they are at least tied to some sort of process and monitoring. So – that’s why the next national pledges due in 2025 are key. They’re supposed to be informed by the stocktake and they have to explain how they are informed by it.
PN: How “visible” were the lobbyists from the oil companies at COP28? Was their presence/influence rather obvious or did they keep more in the back/quiet?
SE: I doubt they interacted directly with the negotiations/negotiators, which take place in their own specific bubble at the COP. But other attendees do influence the general vibes / what people are talking about.
SO: Good afternoon, thanks for organizing this webinar. Just hearing Leo in the introduction highlight that this was the first time that ‘fossil fuels’ were mentioned in a COP outcome, and we’ve heard others highlighting this too over the last 2 days. Actually looking through last year’s Sharm el-Sheikh COP27 cover decision (https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cop27_auv_2_cover%20decision.pdf) it looks like ‘fossil fuels’ were mentioned (section IV. Mitigation, para 13) “Calls upon Parties … to phase-out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies…” This year the Dubai’s COP28 Global Stocktake Outcome (https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf) mentions (para 28 (h)) “Further recognizes the need … phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies…” So given this sounds quite similar just interested in your views in how far we can call the mentioning of fossil fuels new. Thanks!
SE: The difference / significance is about this year’s decision targeting fossil fuels themselves, as a group collectively, as being a problem, which has never happened before.
JC: what is the sense of the role of the market in climate action? Since quality is at stake and market results have failed to deliver integrity, what is the result in the absence of a meaningful decision on Article 6?
SE: Hi Jacobo, this is an interesting tension…Article 6.4 is supposed to drive high quality markets but the longer it takes to get started, the more other market initiaves continue to grow in prominence. So far, I think there is more heat than light around voluntary carbon markets and I would be surprised to see that change dramatically even once ARticle 6.4 starts working.
EG: Sorry they did not agree to ‘double energy efficiency’. In fact the exact words are “doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030” – they only agreed to double the RATE of annual IMPROVEMENTS to energy efficiency. If the average annual rate of “improvement” is 1% currently then this should be 2% by 2030 – overall energy efficiency is not being doubled. Or have I missed something?
SE: Hi Ed, yes it’s the rate of improvement, hopefully that is clear in all our coverage – sorry if that wasn’t clear in our brief spoken summaries just now. See eg: Q&A: Why deals at COP28 to ‘triple renewables’ and ‘double efficiency’ are crucial for 1.5
BW: Is there any chance for the COPs to adopt a majority (say at least 75%) instead of unanimous vote rule? Right now, one country is enough to block progress for everybody else and it would be good if there’d be a way around that.
SE: Hopefully covered in my answer just now…short answer, seems unlikely!
DO: In what ways (if any) is the phrase “transitioning away” different from “phasing-down”?
SE: I mean ultlimately it’s all wordsmithing, the key point is does it take us in the direction we need to go – see the chart in this piece: Q&A: Why defining the ‘phaseout’ of ‘unabated’ fossil fuels is so important at COP28
SS: Folks, please keep in mind, that this all is a volunatary commitment. No independent monitoring, verification. No 2030 goal. No money for enhanded adaptation and mitigation for poorer countries, bread crumps for L&D. And last but not least, based on US, Japan and others pressure, the baseyear for tripling/doubling renewables capacity and energy efficiency got lost – so allowing for significant gaming. I couled go on. So, what is the hype on this “monumental” outcome?
SE: Hi Stephan, you’re not wrong. To be fair, I don’t think we called it monumental, but despite all the shortcomings, it’s hard not to see it as historic to finally name the elephant in the room (fossil fuels), no matter how mealy-mouthed the language was.
GS: A question to Anika: Anika, thanks! You mentioned that while China didn’t contribute to L&D this year, China is contributing to adaptation through other channels. Could you talk more about the nature of those channels (for example: private vs public?, how can we know the investments are adaptation-related, where can we find the data/evidence)
AP: Thanks for the question Georgia! The data is all quite disparate and it’s quite complicated for a chat box, but I’d point you to this article we published recently on this topic: Guest post: Why some ‘developing’ countries are already among largest climate-finance contributors
HBP: ‘@orla and others – How are you tracking the announcements/commitments made for food and agriculture? What can civil society and journalists do to better verify claims are new/have real climate impact and not greenwashing?
OD: Hi Hope, you can find a lot of these announcements and detail on whether they are new or updated in our key outcomes piece published this afternoon… COP28: Key outcomes for food, forests, land and nature at the UN climate talks in Dubai
KH: Were there any new commitments made on implementation of the Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) framework?
OD: Hi Kate, we have a section on what happened with ACE at this year’s COP in our main key outcomes piece – COP28: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Dubai
KM: Do we think that China will eventually pay into the L&D fund?
AP: It’s not impossible, but I think there are a lot of outstanding issues that would first need to be changed (e.g. the World Bank’s oversight, developed countries meeting their existing obligations, ramping down trade tensions with the West) before China would be comfortable joining. China has other platforms (like the south-south cooperation fund, the Africa Climate Summit, etc) that it would be happier using to achieve the same thing.
The post Webinar: Carbon Brief journalists discuss COP28’s key outcomes appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Webinar: Carbon Brief journalists discuss COP28’s key outcomes
Brazil’s environment minister says he is “very optimistic” that the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) – a new rainforest fund to channel private and public finance to developing nations – can meet a key $10 billion funding target this year, and is not at risk from his country’s elections next month.
The TFFF, launched by Brazil at COP30 in the Amazon last November and co-led by Norway, is intended as an alternative to traditional grant-based forest finance. The fund aims to raise $125bn in public and private capital, invest it in bond markets, and then pay countries that keep their forests standing from the annual returns. Donor contributions needed to get it going have tailed off after an initial burst.
Speaking to Climate Home News on the sidelines of Climate Week in New York, Brazilian environment minister João Paulo Capobianco pointed out that in less than a year since its official launch, the TFFF has already secured $7.3bn from governments.
“How many other initiatives can say that?” he asked. “Of course, if you have $7 billion, it’s easier for more countries to consider their own contribution. And not just countries – non-governmental organisations also. We are expecting even more support.”
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As its initial target, the TFFF aims to raise $10bn in seed capital from governments by the end of 2026, and still needs to fill a gap of $2.7bn. Its backers say that for each dollar in public funding, they can secure $4 from the private sector. Critics say the $10bn goal barely covers the fund’s expenses and would not allow it to make any significant payments to forest countries.
Because setting up its financial architecture, raising the starting capital and making the first investments will take time, experts say the TFFF is unlikely to generate any payments for developing countries before 2028.
Seeking new pledges
Capobianco told Climate Home News that Brazil is still in talks with potential new contributors to the fund, among them China, Korea and Japan, and said he hoped to see more pledges announced at the upcoming biodiversity and climate COPs in October and November. The Netherlands is expected to up its first small contribution and Canada may also come in, according to other sources close to the TFFF.
Because the fund was not created as part of the UN climate talks and is hosted by the World Bank, developing countries can contribute without taking on wider donor responsibilities for climate finance. Brazil and Indonesia – both large emerging rainforest nations – have each pledged $1bn to the TFFF.
Earlier in September, the UK became the latest country to pledge funding – promising a loan of £400 million (about $540 million). Capobianco welcomed the contribution and noted that Britain has also said it will keep “under review” the possibility of putting in more.
Currently the largest donor is Norway, which announced a $3bn pledge last year at COP30 in Belém. However, that pledge came with conditions, among them that the fund must reach $10bn in sponsor capital by 2026, and that Norway’s contribution can’t make up more than 20% of that total. Over the longer term, this means the fund must raise $15bn from governments to unlock Norway’s full investment.
Comment: UK’s budget juggling trick with rainforest loan for bus-fare cap needs transparency
Speaking at a forest finance event in New York, Norway’s environment minister Sigrun Aasland said the country’s pledge was made not “only out of solidarity but because of shared interests”, adding that protecting rainforests is critical for climate and biodiversity goals as well as for national security.
“Tropical deforestation matters to people in the Amazon and in the Congo. But let’s not forget that it also matters to global food production and to the cost of living in Oslo or in London,” she said.
At the event, Guyana’s minister of natural resources Vickram Bharrat said the TFFF is “one in a menu of options” to finance forest protection in developing countries. He added that to boost its capital “maybe we should put some amount of pressure on oil companies to contribute to the fund”.
Upcoming election “not a risk”
Brazil, which has been pivotal to getting the fund off the ground, is now heading into a national election that could see the country swing back to an anti-climate stance if right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro beats current left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Capobianco, however, said the election result does not pose a risk to the TFFF.
“It’s a global initiative, not a Brazilian initiative. We proposed the first idea, but nowadays it’s a global initiative,” he said. “We believe the investor countries and the tropical countries together have the possibility to continue this process.”
In Brazil, the first round of voting is scheduled for Sunday, October 4. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, a run-off ballot will take place on October 25.
COP30 roadmap to end deforestation will invite countries to draft domestic plans
In July, the TFFF board adopted a charter, which outlines the instrument’s objectives and values, including that 20% of the payments made to tropical countries will go directly to Indigenous people and local communities.
The charter also says the TFFF board may comprise up to 12 member countries during the initial phase. Currently, seven seats are filled by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Germany, Brazil, France, the Netherlands, Norway and Indonesia.
The board has also formally incorporated the Tropical Forest Investment Fund (TFIF) – the TFFF’s investment arm that will trade bonds in financial markets – hosted in Luxembourg.
The post Brazil confident new rainforest fund will reach $10bn donor milestone appeared first on Climate Home News.
Brazil confident new rainforest fund will reach $10bn donor milestone
Patrick Schröder is a senior research fellow at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre.
A climate summit serious about implementation cannot afford to leave major emissions reductions off the table. Yet, that is the risk COP31 faces unless it makes reducing raw material use central to the way countries decarbonise their economies.
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York last week, COP31 host Türkiye laid out proposals to accelerate emissions cuts in the next decade. Its plans include global goals to increase the share of recycled products in material use to at least 15% (up from 6.9% in 2025) and halve waste generation by 2035.
COP31 offers an opportunity to connect efforts to improve material circularity with stronger national climate commitments and mitigation pathways. But these targets could be a lot more ambitious.
The case for circularity
The Paris Agreement cannot be delivered through cleaner electricity alone. We must also reduce the emissions that are embedded in the way we extract resources, manufacture products, build infrastructure and dispose of waste.
Circularity principles are pivotal to credible mitigation pathways: designing technologies and products to last, repairing and reusing them, and reducing demand for virgin resources.
The scale of the opportunity is striking. A recent European Environment Agency review found that adopting such principles could deliver average global emissions reductions potential of 52% in the waste sector against a business-as-usual scenario, 48% in construction and buildings, 28% in transport and mobility, 26% in industry and 24% in agriculture.
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These figures make a compelling case for raising circularity ambitions across the economy, offering the promise of far more than better recycling bins.
In fact, recycling minerals used in cleantech equipment, for example, illustrate the extent of the emissions savings available. The carbon footprint of minerals and metals recovered from secondary sources is up to 80% lower than those produced from new mining and processing, according to the International Energy Agency.
A major EU-funded project estimates that recovered materials could substitute up to 56% of Europe’s primary critical raw material requirements by 2050, provided they achieve the necessary quality. The main takeaway goes beyond Europe: yesterday’s products can become tomorrow’s strategic resources while mitigating climate change.
In this light, a target to increase the share of recovered material use to 15% isn’t enough.
The evidence-based Circularity Gap Report found a 17% target by 2032 is possible and could unlock additional emissions reductions amounting to several gigatonnes of CO2.
Reducing material demand
A higher circularity metric is only part of the answer, however. An economy can increase its recycling rate at the same time as extracting more primary materials if total material demand keeps growing.
The tougher issue governments need to address is identifying what reductions in primary material use are needed.
The Circularity Gap Report uses an indicative benchmark of eight tonnes of virgin materials consumed per person annually. This is already being translated into policy: Germany’s 2024 circular economy strategy aims to reduce primary resource consumption, with the German Federal Environment Agency identifying six to eight tonnes per person as an ambitious target.
Reducing primary material demand will require a closer integration of energy and resource policies. Efficient EVs charged with solar power can complement better public transport and walkable cities, while batteries designed to be repaired and reused for stationary energy storage before being recycled will reduce the materials footprint of transport and clean energy services.
Coordinated infrastructure development and urban planning can prevent unnecessary overbuild, while renovating existing building stock reduces demand for new steel, cement and aluminium, which are emissions-intensive to produce. Connecting industrial waste heat to district heating networks can further reduce energy demand and emissions.
What governments should agree at COP31
COP31 can translate this approach into three concrete commitments.
First, governments should agree a stronger circularity ambition, supported by material-footprint indicators and milestones. The presidency should seek recognition of these priorities in negotiated outcomes, alongside concrete delivery partnerships under its COP31 Action Agenda.
Second, countries should include quantified circular economy measures in their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and implementation plans. Such measures should include reuse, material efficiency and circularity targets, as well as transparent estimates of emissions savings that avoid double counting across sectors. By the end of 2025, countries had developed 101 national circular economy roadmaps and action plans, yet these often remained disconnected from their NDCs.
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Third, climate finance should support the delivery of circular solutions such as material recovery at scale, investments into circular critical mineral value chains beyond mining, developing a circular plastics economy, and designing buildings and cities that support material reuse. Developing countries need technology, affordable finance and support to deliver these ambitions, including for the informal workers whose livelihoods depend on recovering and recycling materials.
The test for COP31 is to reach an agreement that can start the transformation of our production and consumption systems and how they are financed.
A headline circularity target will achieve little without policies that address absolute resource demand and deliver measurable emissions cuts. But COP31 offers an opportunity to make circularity a central element of climate policy, with targets strong enough to matter and institutions equipped to deliver them.
The post COP31 must aim higher to cut emissions from the use of materials appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP31 must aim higher to cut emissions from the use of materials
An exceptional El Niño is building. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says it has intensified to very strong levels and is likely to last at least through February 2027. If its current trajectory holds, it could become stronger than anything seen since WMO monitoring began four decades ago.
That is bad news for agriculture. El Niño – a naturally occurring weather phenomenon – can scramble rainfall patterns across the world, bringing drought to some regions and floods to others. And this time it is unfolding against the backdrop of a significantly hotter climate, with farmers already contending with unreliable growing seasons, extreme heat and less predictable rainfall because of global warming.
El Niño expected to bring next record-hot year as soon as 2027
We are seeing the consequences already. In Sri Lanka, drought linked to El Niño has dried wells and reservoirs and cut into crops and farmer incomes. Indonesia is experiencing its worst wildfire season in 11 years, with prolonged drought and extreme heat exacerbated by El Niño. And in Peru, authorities are preparing for the opposite extreme: intense rains, flooding and landslides which the national civil-defence agency says could affect around 1.2 million people.
These impacts will multiply as El Niño intensifies.
And yet, just as the risks to food production are rising, the money available to help farmers withstand them is shrinking.
10% funding decline in 2024
A forthcoming analysis from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that climate-related development finance for agrifood systems is moving in the wrong direction. In 2024, the latest year for which data is available, it fell by 10 percent compared with a 2 percent overall decline. The sectors that put food on our tables — crops, livestock, forestry and fisheries — received just 5 percent.
Yet this is precisely the moment when climate investment in agriculture needs to grow, not shrink. It can help communities adapt, build resilience and protect food security, while unlocking larger flows of public and private finance. Agriculture feeds us, supports the livelihoods of well over a billion people, and is often the first sector hit by drought, floods and extreme heat. Cutting that investment now is a false economy.
One failed harvest can plant the seed for the next crisis, forcing farmers to eat the seed they have saved for planting, sell livestock or tools, or take on debt. It can also deepen food insecurity, disrupt supply chains and drive up prices, showing up months later in supermarket aisles far away.
The Central American Dry Corridor, stretching through much of the region, shows both how exposed farmers are, and what investment can do. Based on an analysis of 41 years of satellite observations, FAO finds that some crop and pasture areas there face more than a 50 percent chance of agricultural drought over the coming months.
About half of Central America’s 1.9 million producers of maize, beans and other basic grains live in the Dry Corridor. Many grow food both for sale and for their own families. When a harvest fails, they lose both income and dinner.
El Salvador project conserves water and soil
In El Salvador, which lies within the Dry Corridor, more than 50,000 farmers have adopted practices to better withstand drought and increasingly unreliable rainfall through RECLIMA, a project financed by the Green Climate Fund and implemented by FAO in partnership with the government of El Salvador. It has substantial national co-financing, including from the country’s Environmental Investment Fund.
El Niño can intensify El Salvador’s annual mid-season dry spell, known as the canícula, turning it into a longer, harsher drought just as maize needs water most.
For María Cristina Corvera de López, a second-generation farmer in rural Nahualapa, adapting means changing how every drop of rain is captured and used. She plants trees alongside her crops to provide shade and minimise evaporation and uses simple irrigation channels and a homemade drip system to conserve water. Instead of burning stalks, leaves and husks after harvest, as generations before her did, she turns them into mulch to hold moisture in the soil.
“The effects of climate change are a constant challenge,” she says. But the new techniques have made her farm more resilient to El Niño as well. Where she once harvested about 50 bags of maize per acre, she now gets around 80, even during droughts. It’s enough to feed her family and sell the surplus.
Managing risk now cuts future costs
Together, these adaptations can mean the difference between losing a crop and getting through a dry season with enough food, seed and income to plant again. They are also the result of climate finance invested before disaster strikes.
RECLIMA shows what that kind of adaptation investment can buy. Adaptation accounted for 45 percent of climate-related development finance to agrifood systems in 2024, and multilateral development banks are directing more agricultural finance towards resilience. That shift reflects a growing recognition that adaptation is a form of risk management, not just a development cost.
We need much more of it. The same investments that help farmers withstand El Niño also enable them to adapt to a hotter, more unpredictable future. Cutting investment in the people who produce our food just as climate risks intensify does not save money. It simply pushes a much larger bill into the next harvest, the next food crisis, and the next El Niño.
The post As El Niño intensifies, we should be investing more in the world’s farmers appeared first on Climate Home News.
As El Niño intensifies, we should be investing more in the world’s farmers
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