United Airlines is taking a bold step toward cutting its carbon footprint by investing in Twelve, a California-based company that makes Power-to-Liquid (PtL) fuels. This move is part of United’s Sustainable Flight Fund, and it supports the airline’s goal of cutting aviation emissions by 90% by 2050. The fund is designed to back new ideas that can make air travel cleaner.
Turning CO2 into Jet Fuel: How Twelve’s Tech Works
Twelve has built a new way to make jet fuel that doesn’t rely on crops, waste oils, or fossil fuels. Their patented process takes carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from the air or factories and mixes it with renewable electricity (like solar or wind power). The result is a liquid fuel that works like regular jet fuel but with much lower emissions.
This carbon transformation method creates a closed-loop carbon cycle. That means the CO2 used to make the fuel is the same CO2 released when planes burn it — no extra carbon is added to the atmosphere. By closing this loop, Twelve’s process helps slow climate change and reduces the need to pump new fossil fuels from the ground.
It also fixes another problem. Many traditional types of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) use materials like used cooking oil, animal fats, or crops such as corn and sugarcane. These feedstocks are limited and can be hard to get in large amounts. They also raise ethical questions about using farmland for fuel instead of food.
Twelve’s technology skips these issues entirely, making it easier to grow the SAF supply in the long run.
United’s investment comes after Twelve raised $83 million in its recent Series C funding round. The company is also building its first commercial facility, called AirPlant™ One, in Moses Lake, Washington. The plant will start operating this year and will produce 50,000 gallons of sustainable aviation fuel each year.
Backing the Future: United’s Sustainable Flight Fund
United Airlines is serious about finding new ways to make flying greener. The airline launched the Sustainable Flight Fund in 2023, raising over $200 million so far. Partners in the fund include Air Canada, Boeing, JPMorgan Chase, and other major companies.
The goal of the fund is to help new SAF projects grow faster. By putting money into companies like Twelve, United hopes to build up the supply of cleaner fuels and cut emissions without relying heavily on buying carbon offsets.
United is also unique among U.S. airlines for its long-term SAF focus. The company has invested in over 5 different SAF developers, including Fulcrum BioEnergy and Cemvita Factory. With these moves, United aims to secure steady supplies of SAF for its future flights.
Andrew Chang, head of United Airlines Ventures, noted:
“Scaling the SAF industry is the major hurdle air travel needs to clear in order to increase the supply and reduce the price of lower carbon fuels. Twelve has differentiated themselves through the capital they have raised and the SAF contracts they have secured.”
The aviation industry is under pressure to cut emissions. Planes account for about 2.5% of global CO2 emissions today, and demand for flights is still growing.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says airlines used only 300 million liters of SAF in 2022, but demand could grow to 7 billion liters by 2030.
That’s a huge jump, showing just how important SAF is becoming. Some key facts to know about this jet fuel:
Today, SAF makes up less than 1% of all jet fuel used globally.
Experts think the SAF market could be worth over $15 billion by 2030.
SAF can lower lifecycle emissions by up to 80% compared to fossil jet fuel.
Annual SAF demand range over the main and accelerated cases compared with capacity potential, 2020-2026
Source: IEA
Even though SAF is good for the planet, it still costs 3 to 5x more than regular jet fuel. That’s why government policies are helping. For example, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offers tax credits for low-carbon fuels, making SAF cheaper to buy. The European Union also passed rules requiring airlines to use increasing amounts of SAF starting in 2025.
Many believe that as technology improves and more SAF is made, costs will drop to match regular fuel prices by the early 2030s.
How Twelve Fits into the Bigger Picture
Twelve is one of the few companies working on Power-to-Liquid (PtL) SAF, which uses only CO2 and clean energy instead of crops or oils. This means their fuel can be scaled up faster without competing for food or farmland.
In 2023, Twelve opened its first demonstration plant in Moses Lake, Washington, to show that the technology works. Their long-term plan is to build bigger facilities that can produce millions of gallons of PtL SAF each year.
The U.S. Department of Energy has recognized PtL as a promising option for deep decarbonization. Studies show PtL fuels could cut aviation emissions by up to 90%, depending on how clean the electricity source is.
For United, working with Twelve is more than just cutting emissions — it’s about staying ahead of competitors. Many airlines still depend on buying carbon offsets to meet their climate goals. United wants to lead with direct emission cuts, which experts say is a stronger, more reliable strategy.
Delta Air Lines partnered with Gevo to buy 385 million gallons of SAF over seven years.
American Airlines signed a deal with Aemetis for 350 million gallons over 10 years.
Lufthansa, KLM, and British Airways are also working with SAF producers like Neste and Velocys.
However, most of these deals are focused on SAF made from used cooking oil, fats, and biomass — not PtL. United’s early and large investment in Power-to-Liquid SAF sets it apart from airlines still relying mostly on crop-based or waste oil SAF.
What’s Next? A Greener Future for Aviation
The future of flight is changing fast. Analysts predict that investments like United’s could speed up a major shift in aviation. As governments around the world set stricter rules on emissions and offer more support for low-carbon technologies, SAF use is expected to soar.
If SAF production grows as hoped, airlines could shrink their carbon footprints by 40% to 70% in the next 20 years.
United’s investment in Twelve and other clean fuel companies shows it’s not just following the trend — it’s trying to shape the future of sustainable travel. The airline’s plan is to use a mix of SAF sources, from waste oils to PtL fuels, to make sure it can meet rising demand.
China is backing a Beijing-based startup called Orbital Chenguang with about 57.7 billion yuan ($8.4 billion) in credit lines to build space-based data centers, according to media reports. The funding comes from major state-linked banks and signals one of the largest known investments in orbital computing infrastructure.
The move highlights a growing global race to build computing systems in space. It also puts China in direct competition with companies like SpaceX, which is exploring space-based data infrastructure, too.
Orbital Chenguang Builds State-Backed Space Computing System
Orbital Chenguang is a startup in Beijing supported by the Beijing Astro-future Institute of Space Technology. This institute works with the city’s science and technology authorities.
The company has received credit line support from major Chinese financial institutions, including:
Bank of China,
Agricultural Bank of China,
Bank of Communications,
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and
CITIC Bank.
These are credit lines, not fully deployed cash. But the scale shows strong institutional backing.
The project is part of a wider national strategy focused on commercial space, AI infrastructure, and advanced computing systems.
China’s state space contractor, CASC (China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation), has shared plans under its 15th Five-Year Plan. These include ideas for large-scale space computing systems, aiming for gigawatt power.
Space Data Center Plan Targets 2035 Gigawatt Capacity
According to Chinese media reports, Orbital Chenguang plans to build a constellation in a dawn-dusk sun-synchronous orbit at 700–800 km altitude. The long-term target is a gigawatt-scale space data center by 2035.
The development plan is divided into phases:
2025–2027: Launch early computing satellites and solve technical barriers.
2028–2030: Link space-based systems with Earth-based data centers.
2030–2035: Scale toward large orbital computing infrastructure.
The design relies on continuous solar energy and natural cooling in space. These features could reduce reliance on land-based power grids and cooling systems.
China has proposed two satellite constellations to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). These plans include a total of 96,714 satellites. This shows China’s long-term goals for space infrastructure and spectrum control.
The AI Energy Crunch Pushing Computing Into Orbit
The push into orbital data centers is closely linked to rising AI demand. Global data centers consumed about 415–460 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2024, equal to roughly 1.5%–2% of global power use. This figure is rising quickly due to AI workloads.
Some industry projections show demand could exceed 1,000 TWh by 2026, nearly equal to Japan’s total electricity consumption.
AI systems require massive computing power, which increases energy use and cooling needs. In many regions, electricity supply—not hardware—is now the main constraint on AI expansion.
China’s strategy aims to address this by moving part of the computing load into space, where solar energy is more stable and continuous.
Data centers already create a large carbon footprint. In 2024, they emitted about 182 million tonnes of CO₂, based on global electricity use of roughly 460 TWh and an average carbon intensity of 396 grams of CO₂ per kWh. This is according to the International Energy Agency report, as shown in the chart below.
Source: IEA
Future projections show even faster growth. The sector could generate up to 2.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions by 2030, driven by AI expansion. This is where orbital systems come in. They aim to reduce emissions during operation by using:
However, space systems also introduce new emissions. Rocket launches used about 63,000 tonnes of propellant in 2022, producing CO₂ and atmospheric pollutants. Lifecycle studies suggest that over 70% of emissions from space systems typically come from manufacturing and launch activities.
In addition, hardware in orbit often has a lifespan of only 5–6 years, which increases replacement cycles and launch frequency. This creates a key trade-off:
Lower operational emissions in space, and
Higher lifecycle emissions from launches and manufacturing.
Research suggests that, in some scenarios, orbital computing could produce up to 10 times higher total carbon emissions than terrestrial systems when full lifecycle impacts are included.
China’s Expanding Space-Tech Ecosystem
Orbital Chenguang is not operating alone. Several Chinese companies are working on similar in-orbit computing systems, including ADA Space, Zhejiang Lab, Shanghai Bailing Aerospace, and Zhongke Tiansuan.
These firms are developing satellite-based computing and AI processing systems. This shows that orbital computing is not a single project. It is part of a broader national push across government, industry, and research institutions.
China’s space strategy combines commercial space growth with national technology planning. It aims to build integrated systems that connect satellites, cloud computing, and terrestrial networks.
The Space-AI Arms Race: China vs SpaceX vs Google
China is not alone in exploring space-based computing. Companies in the United States are also developing orbital data infrastructure concepts. These include early-stage research and private sector projects by firms such as SpaceX and Google.
SpaceX is building one of the largest satellite networks through its Starlink constellation, with thousands of satellites already in orbit. While its main goal is global internet coverage, the network also creates a foundation for future edge computing in space. The company’s reusable rockets, including Starship, are designed to lower launch costs, which is a key barrier to scaling orbital data infrastructure.
Google, through its cloud division, has been investing in space data and satellite analytics. It partners with Earth observation firms to process large volumes of data using cloud-based AI tools. This work could extend to hybrid systems where data is processed closer to where it is generated, including in orbit.
Other players are also entering the field. Amazonis developing Project Kuiper, a satellite internet network that could support future space-based computing layers. Microsoft has launched Azure Space, which connects satellites directly to cloud computing services and supports real-time data processing.
Government agencies are also involved. NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense are funding research into orbital computing, edge processing, and secure data transmission in space. These efforts aim to reduce latency, improve data security, and enable faster decision-making for both civilian and defense applications.
Together, these developments show that space-based computing is moving beyond theory. While still early-stage, both public and private sector efforts are building the foundation for future data centers and processing systems in orbit.
However, these systems face major challenges:
High launch costs,
Heat and thermal control issues,
Limited data transmission bandwidth, and
Hardware durability in space.
Despite these challenges, interest is growing because AI demand is rising faster than Earth-based infrastructure can scale. The competition is now moving toward who can solve energy and computing limits first—on Earth or in space.
Market Outlook: AI, Energy, and Space Infrastructure Converge
The global data center industry is entering a period of rapid expansion. Electricity demand from data centers could double by 2030, driven mainly by AI workloads and cloud computing growth. Power supply is becoming a limiting factor in many regions.
At the same time, the global space economy is expanding into a multi-hundred-billion-dollar industry, supported by satellites, communications, and emerging technologies like orbital computing.
Orbital data centers sit at the intersection of three major trends: rapid AI growth, rising energy constraints, and expansion of space infrastructure.
China’s $8.4 billion credit-backed push through Orbital Chenguang signals confidence in this convergence. However, key barriers remain, such as high cost of launches, engineering complexity, short satellite lifespans (5-6 years), and regulatory uncertainty in orbital systems.
Because of these limits, orbital data centers are unlikely to replace Earth-based systems in the near term. Instead, they may form a hybrid system where some workloads move to space while most remain on Earth.
Space Is Becoming the Next Data Center Frontier
China’s investment in Orbital Chenguang marks one of the most significant moves yet in the emerging field of space-based computing. Backed by major Chinese banks, municipal science institutions, and national space contractors like CASC, the project shows how seriously China is treating orbital infrastructure.
The strategy connects AI growth, energy demand, and climate pressures into a single long-term vision. But the trade-offs are complex. Orbital data centers may reduce operational emissions, but they also introduce high lifecycle carbon costs and major technical challenges.
The global race is now underway. With companies like SpaceX, Google, and Chinese tech firms exploring similar ideas, space is becoming a new frontier for digital infrastructure. The outcome will depend on whether orbital systems can scale efficiently—and whether their carbon benefits can outweigh the emissions cost of building them.
When General Motors (GM) committed $625 million to develop Thacker Pass in Nevada, it did more than fund a lithium project. It established a new model for how automakers secure critical minerals, and in doing so, it reshaped how investors should evaluate the next generation of U.S. lithium assets.
This was not a passive investment. It was a fully structured supply chain partnership, combining equity, long-term offtake, and pricing strategy into a single agreement.
For investors watching Nevada’s clay lithium sector, the implication is clear: the first project has been validated – now the market is looking for what comes next.
A Landmark Deal and a New Partnership Model
GM’s $625 million investment in Lithium Americas remains one of the largest commitments by an automaker into upstream battery materials. The structure of the deal matters as much as its size.
GM secured exclusive access to Phase 1 production, locking in long-term supply from Thacker Pass, which is expected to produce around 40,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate. That output alone could support hundreds of thousands to up to 1 million EVs annually.
More importantly, the agreement evolved into a joint venture structure, with GM ultimately taking a 38% ownership stake in the project while securing long-term offtake rights. This started as a TopCo equity investment but changed into a JV.
John Evans, LAC CEO, said in an interview on the GM agreement:
“They view this as an investment as much as they do a hedge to ensure that they get low-cost lithium. They want to run this JV as a business.”
A key highlight of the Thacker Pass deal is GM’s offtake agreement, which now serves as a template for a world-class OEM arrangement. GM must purchase at least 20% of its North American lithium demand, with the option to increase to 100%.
The floor price is “meaningfully above” the August 2024 low (~$10,000/t) but below current prices (~$21,000/t), as noted by Evans. GM was given an effective discount at higher price levels, lightly structured when prices at that time were at ~$60,000/t.
GM provides rolling three-year forecasts, with the next year’s volume fixed, allowing Lithium Americas to commit remaining volume to third parties. The agreement covers up to three years of contracted volume at a time.
GM Moves Upstream: From Automaker to Lithium Investor
The GM–Thacker Pass agreement highlights a shift in the lithium market. Automakers are moving upstream, directly into mining, to secure supply, manage costs, and reduce geopolitical risk. This approach is driven by both market forces and policy, with the U.S. pushing for domestic sourcing of critical minerals to support EV supply chains.
Key elements of this emerging model include:
Equity participation in the mining project,
Long-term offtake agreements tied to production, and
Structured pricing mechanisms to manage volatility.
Thacker Pass sits at the center of that strategy. It is widely recognized as the largest known lithium resource in the United States, and with construction underway, it is moving from concept to execution.
Breaking the Clay Lithium Barrier
For years, sedimentary clay lithium has carried a persistent discount in the market. Unlike brine operations in South America or hard-rock mining in Australia, clay deposits had never been proven at a commercial scale. The uncertainty around processing, recovery rates, and operating costs limited investor confidence.
Thacker Pass is now changing that, with construction underway, production targeted later this decade, and processing planned using sulfuric acid leaching at an industrial scale. Once operational, it will mark the first large-scale commercial validation of clay lithium extraction.
In resource markets, once a new extraction method is proven, capital follows. Financing improves, development timelines accelerate, and the entire category begins to reprice. This is exactly what happened in Chile’s brine sector decades ago. Clay lithium in Nevada may now be entering a similar phase.
GM’s investment provides a real-world benchmark for what a bankable lithium project looks like in today’s market. It demonstrates that:
OEMs are willing to invest upstream
Long-term offtake agreements can anchor financing
Domestic lithium supply is now a strategic priority
It also answers a key question that has held back the sector: Will major industrial players commit to clay lithium at scale? The answer is now yes.
The Next Project in the Queue: NNLP
With Thacker Pass moving forward, investor focus naturally shifts to the next project capable of attracting similar strategic interest. That brings attention to Surge Battery Metals’ Nevada North Lithium Project (NNLP), a structurally aligned next-tier candidate.
NNLP is not competing with Thacker Pass as a first mover; it is emerging as a next-generation project within a now-validated category.
NNLP stands out based on core project metrics that directly impact economics. Its average lithium grade of 3,010 ppm is significantly higher than Thacker Pass Phase 1 material, which ranges from 1,500 to 2,500 ppm. Higher grades typically translate into more efficient recovery and lower processing intensity per tonne.
The project also benefits from near-surface mineralization and a low strip ratio of approximately 1.16:1. This may reduce mining complexity and indicate efficient material movement.
From a cost perspective, NNLP’s estimated operating cost of around $5,243 per tonne LCE compares favorably to LAC’s Thacker Pass guidance of roughly $6,200 per tonne.
Beyond geology, NNLP aligns with the same development framework that defines Thacker Pass. The project has secured a strategic partnership with Evolution Mining, funding up to C$10 million toward the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS), while Fluor Corporation, the engineering firm involved in Thacker Pass, is leading the PFS at NNLP.
Leadership expertise also matters: Steffen Ball, a key member of the team, previously led battery raw material sourcing strategies at major automakers. These include Nissan North America and Ford Motor Company, aligning with the type of OEM agreements now seen in GM–Thacker Pass.
Scale, Market Tailwinds, and Second-Wave Opportunities
Scale is critical to attract major OEM partners. NNLP outlines a 42-year mine life with average annual production of approximately 86,300 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. That output positions it to support long-term anchor offtake agreements, similar in structure to what GM secured at Thacker Pass.
Market fundamentals continue to support these developments:
Global lithium demand is projected to more than double by 2030.
EV production is scaling rapidly across major markets.
Governments are prioritizing domestic supply chains for critical minerals.
Even with recent lithium price volatility, long-term fundamentals remain intact. GM’s investment reflects a forward-looking strategy: secure supply today to avoid constraints tomorrow.
Thacker Pass carries the burden of being first, proving the process, building infrastructure, and validating the economics of clay lithium. This creates opportunities for projects that follow, like NNLP, which benefit from reduced technical uncertainty, clearer financing pathways, and a market that now understands clay lithium.
First Project Validated, Next Project Poised to Follow
GM’s $625 million investment was not just a bet on one project. It was a commitment to a new supply chain model for lithium—one that integrates mining, manufacturing, and long-term demand into a single structure. Thacker Pass is now proving that model, and NNLP is positioned to fit within it.
With higher grades, favorable mining characteristics, strong development partners, and the right scale, NNLP aligns with the criteria that attracted one of the world’s largest automakers to Nevada clay lithium in the first place.
For investors, the takeaway is straightforward: the first project is being built, the template is established, and the next project in the queue is becoming easier to identify.
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Amazon has signed a long-term carbon credit agreement with Bayer-backed The Good Rice Alliance (TGRA), aiming to cut methane emissions from rice farming across India. The move reflects a growing push toward agriculture-based climate solutions that deliver both environmental and economic value.
Rice cultivation remains a major source of methane emissions globally. The problem comes from traditional farming methods, where paddy fields stay flooded for long periods. These waterlogged conditions create an oxygen-free environment that allows methane-producing bacteria to thrive. As a result, rice farming contributes roughly 8–10% of global methane emissions, making it one of the largest sources after livestock.
India’s Rice Fields: A Major Methane Hotspot
India is at the center of this issue. It has one of the largest rice-growing areas in the world, with around 42–44 million hectares under cultivation. This massive scale makes the country a key contributor to agricultural methane emissions.
Estimates suggest that globally rice fields release anywhere between 20 and 60 teragrams (Tg) of methane each year, depending on how emissions are measured.
Some national-level studies also point to the amount of CH4 emitted from paddy fields of India is 3.396 teragram (1teragram = 109 kilograms) per year or 71.32 MMT CO2 equivalent.
Together, these figures highlight how rice farming accounts for a meaningful share of India’s overall methane footprint and a notable portion of global emissions.
Certain regions, especially the Indo-Gangetic Plain, show even higher emission levels. Warm temperatures, heavy flooding, and high organic matter in soils create ideal conditions for methane generation. This makes India not just a large emitter, but also a high-impact opportunity for methane reduction.
The Good Rice Alliance (TGRA): Turning Farming Practices into Climate Solutions
TGRA’s program focuses on simple but effective changes in how rice is grown. Farmers are encouraged to adopt techniques such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) and Direct Seeded Rice (DSR). These methods reduce continuous flooding, which directly cuts methane production.
The impact can be significant. Studies show that improved water management and better nutrient practices can reduce methane emissions from rice fields by 30–50%. At the same time, these changes reduce irrigation water use by up to 30%.
Advancing sustainable rice farming through precision GHG estimation
Source: TGRA
The benefits go beyond emissions. Farmers often see lower input costs, better yields, and improved resilience to climate stress. TGRA currently works with over 13,000 smallholder farmers across multiple states, covering more than 35,000 hectares. The program provides training, financial incentives, and regular on-ground support to ensure long-term adoption.
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Amazon Leans on High-Quality Credits Amid Rising Emissions
Amazon continues to face challenges in reducing emissions. The company reported 68.25 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent emissions in 2024, marking a 6% increase from the previous year. Growth in data centers for AI and rising fuel use in logistics were the main drivers.
This highlights the complexity of balancing rapid business growth with climate commitments. Still, Amazon remains focused on its goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2040 under the Climate Pledge.
Carbon credits play a supporting role in this journey. The company emphasizes high-quality, science-based credits that meet strict standards for transparency and impact.
Driving Verified Methane Reductions
Most significantly, the retail giant plays a central role in scaling this initiative. The company has committed to purchasing more than 685,000 metric tons of CO₂ equivalent carbon credits during the project’s initial phase. This makes it the primary buyer and a major supporter of methane reduction in Indian agriculture.
These credits represent verified emission reductions. They are measured directly in the field, supported by satellite data, and validated under global carbon standards. This focus on quality is critical as companies face increasing scrutiny over carbon offset claims.
Thus, for Amazon, the deal boosts its broader climate strategy. The company follows a “reduce first, then neutralize” approach. It prioritizes cutting emissions through renewable energy, electrification, and logistics improvements. However, some emissions remain difficult to eliminate, especially across its vast supply chain.
Carbon credits help bridge that gap. Methane-focused credits are particularly valuable because they deliver faster climate benefits in the near term compared to carbon dioxide reductions.
Science, Data, and Trust in Carbon Markets
A key strength of TGRA’s program lies in its strong measurement system. Emissions are tracked using direct, field-based methane measurements in collaboration with the International Rice Research Institute. This data is backed by satellite monitoring and digital tools.
Each carbon credit is supported by multiple layers of verification. Field data is cross-checked with remote sensing records, ensuring accuracy and transparency. This approach addresses concerns around over-crediting and builds confidence in the voluntary carbon market.
It has also received an ex-ante A rating from BeZero Carbon, reflecting strong confidence in its design and integrity.
Why Methane Cuts Matter Right Now
Methane is often called a “super pollutant” because it traps over 27 times more heat than carbon dioxide over 100 years. More importantly, it has a shorter atmospheric life, which means cutting methane can slow warming more quickly in the near term.
Given India’s large rice footprint and high emission intensity, even small changes per hectare can lead to massive reductions at scale. This makes projects like TGRA’s highly strategic for companies like Amazon looking to close their short-term emissions gap.
Beyond emissions reduction, the program delivers strong social and economic benefits. Farmers receive hands-on support, including field visits, training, and financial incentives. Lower water use reduces costs, while improved practices can increase productivity.
This combination of climate and livelihood benefits is key to long-term success. It ensures that farmers remain at the center of the transition to sustainable agriculture.
Amazon also extends the impact through its Sustainability Exchange and Carbon Credit Service. These platforms allow suppliers and partners to access similar agricultural carbon projects, spreading climate action across their broader ecosystem.
Source: IEA
Overall, the partnership between Amazon and TGRA shows how global companies can support large-scale climate solutions at the grassroots level. By creating demand for high-integrity carbon credits, they help finance sustainable farming practices.
