Lithium prices have dropped to their lowest in three years, raising key questions about the future of EVs and batteries. What’s behind the slide? As China tightens its lead in battery production, the U.S. faces roadblocks, tariffs, policy shifts, and import dependence. Can the U.S. close the gap? Will cheaper lithium help or hurt the industry? The answers could shape the next wave of the global clean energy shift.
Lithium Prices Hit 3-Year Lows Amid Oversupply and Trade Tensions
In April 2025, lithium prices plunged to their lowest in over three years due to an oversupplied market and escalating trade tensions.
In the latest quarter lithium report, S&P Global highlighted,
- By April 16, lithium carbonate prices in China fell 5.4% to 70,000 yuan per tonne. It’s the lowest since January 2021.
- Similarly, prices for lithium carbonate shipped to Asia dropped 5.3% to $9,000 per tonne, the weakest since February 2021, according to Platts data.

China’s Battery Boom Pushes Supply Higher
China’s lithium production surged in March 2025 as refiners ramped up post-Lunar New Year and new plants began operations. This influx of supply intensified the downward pressure on prices.
At the same time, China’s traction battery output soared 55.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, underscoring the country’s dominance in the EV battery market.
In March alone, 56.6 GWh of power battery installations happened in China, a 61.8% jump from 2024, driven by rapid EV adoption.
Major firms like CATL and BYD now hold over 65% of the domestic market, further reinforcing China’s position as the global leader in battery innovation and supply.
Technology Gains and Falling Battery Costs Drive Growth
Rapid advances in battery technology, including improved lithium-ion and solid-state batteries, are boosting energy density, safety, and charging speed. These upgrades are making electric vehicles more appealing to drivers and fleet operators alike.
At the same time, battery prices are dropping fast. In 2023, lithium-ion battery costs averaged $139/kWh and are projected to fall to $113/kWh by 2025, driven by larger economies, innovation, and smarter manufacturing.

US Still Relies on Lithium Imports Despite Push for Domestic Supply
Despite growing demand, the US continues to rely heavily on imported lithium. Most direct imports come from Chile and Argentina, but the majority enter indirectly through electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and parts like cathodes.
The S&P Global report further revealed that last year, 69% of US EV imports came from Japan, South Korea, and the EU regions still tied to China’s battery supply chain, especially for cathodes and LFP batteries.
Can Trump’s Tariff Encourage Domestic Lithium Production?
To reduce reliance on foreign sources, the US is stepping up efforts to increase domestic lithium production. On March 20, former President Donald Trump signed an executive order to accelerate mineral production by improving funding, streamlining permits, and expanding federal land access.
Additionally, the US launched a critical minerals investigation on April 15, which may result in tariffs. If enacted, these tariffs could incentivize local mining and refining of lithium and cobalt.
Global EV Sales Soar But U.S. Struggles
Electric vehicle (EV) sales posted strong gains in March and Q1 2024. Globally, passenger plug-in EV sales rose 33.5% in March and 31.1% in the first quarter compared to last year.
Once again, China dominated, while the US struggled with growing uncertainty due to trade tensions.

Battery Manufacturing and EV Growth
In the US, there’s a clear divide between support for raw material mining and EV battery manufacturing. The upstream sector, i.e., mining and refining, has gained momentum from recent policy support.
However, downstream manufacturing is under pressure. Rising costs, funding freezes, and reduced demand fueled by tariff concerns have led to project cancellations:
- T1 Energy Inc. scrapped a $2.6 billion battery plant in Georgia.
- KORE Power Inc. canceled its $1.25 billion project in Arizona.
These facilities were initially backed by former President Joe Biden’s clean energy incentives, now paused under the Trump administration. If tariffs persist, more EV battery projects may be delayed or shelved.
Automakers Shift Strategy Amid US Tariffs
As tariff impacts intensify, carmakers are shifting production strategies to avoid added costs:
- General Motors is increasing US output and cutting production in Mexico.
- Nissan has paused US orders for some Mexico-built cars and may move manufacturing entirely to the US.
- Stellantis has temporarily halted operations in both Mexico and Canada.
- Jaguar Land Rover has suspended US shipments for a month to assess tariff implications.
- Tesla is also affected, as it relies heavily on China-based suppliers for key components.

UK and EU Ease EV Targets in Response to Trade Pressure
In response to the US tariffs, the UK has aligned with the EU in relaxing short-term EV adoption targets. Automakers can now use future sales to meet current quotas. The UK’s 2025 target of 28% BEV (battery electric vehicle) sales remains unchanged, rising to 80% by 2030.
However, penalties for missing emission targets have been pushed from 2026 to 2029, and fines have been reduced from £15,000 to £12,000 per vehicle. Additionally, EU carmakers can now pool EV sales to meet joint goals, easing near-term sales pressure.
Overall, the global EV market remains strong, but falling lithium prices, policy shifts, and rising trade tensions are reshaping the landscape. While China strengthens its hold on battery production, the US is struggling to build a fully domestic battery supply chain. With EV demand rising and tariffs looming, the road ahead for US manufacturers will depend on how quickly they can secure local resources and revive clean energy investments.
The post Lithium Prices Hit 3-Year Lows in Q1 2025 as Supply Surges and Global Trade Risks Rise appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD
For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.
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Carbon Footprint
How community stewardship makes carbon credits durable
A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?
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Carbon Footprint
Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility
What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.
Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.
Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.
What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working
The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.
Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.
The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.
The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.
The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.
The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.
What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign
The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.
- What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
- What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
- What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
- What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
- What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.
If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.
Where this leaves your near-term commitments
You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.
You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.
Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.
If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.
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