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Lithium prices have dropped to their lowest in three years, raising key questions about the future of EVs and batteries. What’s behind the slide? As China tightens its lead in battery production, the U.S. faces roadblocks, tariffs, policy shifts, and import dependence. Can the U.S. close the gap? Will cheaper lithium help or hurt the industry? The answers could shape the next wave of the global clean energy shift.

Lithium Prices Hit 3-Year Lows Amid Oversupply and Trade Tensions

In April 2025, lithium prices plunged to their lowest in over three years due to an oversupplied market and escalating trade tensions.

In the latest quarter lithium report, S&P Global highlighted,

  • By April 16, lithium carbonate prices in China fell 5.4% to 70,000 yuan per tonne. It’s the lowest since January 2021.
  • Similarly, prices for lithium carbonate shipped to Asia dropped 5.3% to $9,000 per tonne, the weakest since February 2021, according to Platts data.

Lithium price

China’s Battery Boom Pushes Supply Higher

China’s lithium production surged in March 2025 as refiners ramped up post-Lunar New Year and new plants began operations. This influx of supply intensified the downward pressure on prices.

At the same time, China’s traction battery output soared 55.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, underscoring the country’s dominance in the EV battery market.

In March alone, 56.6 GWh of power battery installations happened in China, a 61.8% jump from 2024, driven by rapid EV adoption.

Major firms like CATL and BYD now hold over 65% of the domestic market, further reinforcing China’s position as the global leader in battery innovation and supply.

Technology Gains and Falling Battery Costs Drive Growth

Rapid advances in battery technology, including improved lithium-ion and solid-state batteries, are boosting energy density, safety, and charging speed. These upgrades are making electric vehicles more appealing to drivers and fleet operators alike.

At the same time, battery prices are dropping fast. In 2023, lithium-ion battery costs averaged $139/kWh and are projected to fall to $113/kWh by 2025, driven by larger economies, innovation, and smarter manufacturing.

china EV sales lithium

US Still Relies on Lithium Imports Despite Push for Domestic Supply

Despite growing demand, the US continues to rely heavily on imported lithium. Most direct imports come from Chile and Argentina, but the majority enter indirectly through electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and parts like cathodes.

The S&P Global report further revealed that last year, 69% of US EV imports came from Japan, South Korea, and the EU regions still tied to China’s battery supply chain, especially for cathodes and LFP batteries.

Can Trump’s Tariff Encourage Domestic Lithium Production?

To reduce reliance on foreign sources, the US is stepping up efforts to increase domestic lithium production. On March 20, former President Donald Trump signed an executive order to accelerate mineral production by improving funding, streamlining permits, and expanding federal land access.

Additionally, the US launched a critical minerals investigation on April 15, which may result in tariffs. If enacted, these tariffs could incentivize local mining and refining of lithium and cobalt.

Global EV Sales Soar But U.S. Struggles

Electric vehicle (EV) sales posted strong gains in March and Q1 2024. Globally, passenger plug-in EV sales rose 33.5% in March and 31.1% in the first quarter compared to last year.

Once again, China dominated, while the US struggled with growing uncertainty due to trade tensions.

ev sales

Battery Manufacturing and EV Growth

In the US, there’s a clear divide between support for raw material mining and EV battery manufacturing. The upstream sector, i.e., mining and refining, has gained momentum from recent policy support.

However, downstream manufacturing is under pressure. Rising costs, funding freezes, and reduced demand fueled by tariff concerns have led to project cancellations:

  • T1 Energy Inc. scrapped a $2.6 billion battery plant in Georgia.
  • KORE Power Inc. canceled its $1.25 billion project in Arizona.

These facilities were initially backed by former President Joe Biden’s clean energy incentives, now paused under the Trump administration. If tariffs persist, more EV battery projects may be delayed or shelved.

Automakers Shift Strategy Amid US Tariffs

As tariff impacts intensify, carmakers are shifting production strategies to avoid added costs:

  • General Motors is increasing US output and cutting production in Mexico.
  • Nissan has paused US orders for some Mexico-built cars and may move manufacturing entirely to the US.
  • Stellantis has temporarily halted operations in both Mexico and Canada.
  • Jaguar Land Rover has suspended US shipments for a month to assess tariff implications.
  • Tesla is also affected, as it relies heavily on China-based suppliers for key components.

us pev sales

UK and EU Ease EV Targets in Response to Trade Pressure

In response to the US tariffs, the UK has aligned with the EU in relaxing short-term EV adoption targets. Automakers can now use future sales to meet current quotas. The UK’s 2025 target of 28% BEV (battery electric vehicle) sales remains unchanged, rising to 80% by 2030.

However, penalties for missing emission targets have been pushed from 2026 to 2029, and fines have been reduced from £15,000 to £12,000 per vehicle. Additionally, EU carmakers can now pool EV sales to meet joint goals, easing near-term sales pressure.

Lithium Price Forecast Beyond 2025: Rebound Expected After 2035 Supply Crunch

Between 2024 and 2026, the lithium will remain oversupplied, with 2025 marking the steepest surplus. As seen, this trend pushed prices to their lowest point in years.

S&P Global forecasts that although the market will gradually move toward balance after that, prices will stay relatively low through 2030–2034. Even as demand starts to exceed supply.

  • Notably, it’s only by 2035, when a significant shortage of 406,000 tonnes is expected, that lithium prices finally begin to rebound. Study the chart below:

lithium prices

Overall, the global EV market remains strong, but falling lithium prices, policy shifts, and rising trade tensions are reshaping the landscape. While China strengthens its hold on battery production, the US is struggling to build a fully domestic battery supply chain. With EV demand rising and tariffs looming, the road ahead for US manufacturers will depend on how quickly they can secure local resources and revive clean energy investments.

The post Lithium Prices Hit 3-Year Lows in Q1 2025 as Supply Surges and Global Trade Risks Rise appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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