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UK Bans Ming Yang, Vestas Plans Scotland Factory
The UK bars Ming Yang on security grounds while Vestas announces a €250M nacelle factory in Scotland. Also, Nordex reaches a 199-meter hub height milestone and male bats use turbines as courtship song perches.
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[00:00:00] The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast brought to you by Strike Tape, protecting thousands of wind turbines from lightning damage worldwide. Visit strike tape.com. And now your hosts.
Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host Allen Hall, and I’m here with Rosemary Barnes, Matthew Stead, and Yolanda Padron. And. The hot news this week is Scotland, and Scotland is gonna be a major hub for manufacturing for all the offshore wind that is happening in the UK and around Europe.
Well, the UK government ruled that Chinese turbine maker Ming Yang poses a national security threat and blocked its products from UK offshore wind projects, which in turn killed a plan for a one and a half billion pound Scottish factory. And then a couple of hours later, Dana Danish Giant Vestus announced plans to build its own cell [00:01:00] and hub factory in Scotland with an investment of about 250 million euros and up to about 500 jobs.
Uh, but there is still a catch. Vestus is only going to move forward if it wins enough orders from the UK’s offshore wind. Auction program and allocation round eight was announced recently, so that’s gonna happen. So obviously Vestus would like to win a number of turbine orders from that, but that’s a pretty major announcement by the UK and by Vestus.
It does seem like Vestus will be the leader in offshore winds in the uk. Is that the long term play now? Is that there’ll be a primary. Wind turbine source for the uk and that would be Vestas.
Rosemary Barnes: Weren’t we just covering, didn’t we just cover last week about another Danish manufacturer who just closed in a cell, uh, manufacturing facility in Denmark?
Allen Hall: Siemens did.
Rosemary Barnes: So yeah, one week [00:02:00] Siemens is closing a factory in Denmark and the next week. As Bestus is opening similar factory in the uk. So that’s a interesting little geographic, uh, bit of information,
Matthew Stead: isn’t it? Thanks to our friends, the royal family in the uk, that they’re really promoting offshore wind.
Matthew Stead: Uh, my understanding is they own the rights to the offshore water.
Uh, well, obviously the offshore, offshore area, and they, they have promoted, um, the use of leases. And I, I understand, I might be cor incorrect, that the royal family is the one that may gain the, the benefit from the leases.
Allen Hall: It’s the crown of state in the UK that. Manages the royal family’s holdings. [00:03:00] Some part of the awarded amount or the, the leases are going to go to the royal family.
I forget what that number is. Maybe 10% of ’em. And the rest basically are the treasury of the uk.
Matthew Stead: Oh, not all of it.
Allen Hall: Yeah, not all of it. But yeah, I mean it definitely benefits the royal family.
Matthew Stead: Yeah. So kiosk to the royal family for promoting it.
Allen Hall: Well, the price of petroleum in oil products recently has skyrocketed, of course.
And, uh. The push to get renewables as the leading source of electricity generation in the UK is a massive move, which will. Promulgate all through Europe, everybody’s gonna be on that same pathway, I would think. Right now, the, the, the unique part about the UK and these, these Scottish efforts is that the speed at which the UK and Scotland in particular are going after it, you see some commitment by the Scandinavians in Germany to get to some of these numbers.
But, uh, the UK is putting in an action. And they have a in, uh, industrial growth plan, which [00:04:00] is a little bit unique that this is part of the growth strategy of the UK is they’re trying to grow jobs, they’re trying to get higher paying jobs into the uk and this is the, the one way they’re trying to accomplish it.
I was listening to a podcast today talking about this. It was someone representing, I think it was great British energy, but they are at least the, as the discussion points, they were trying to show comparisons. To what will happen and when to What has happened in the past with aerospace that the UK realized it’s good at composites, manufacturing wings, doing power plants, rolls Royce is there, right?
So there’s a number of parallel. Tracks that the UK is going to to try to do through, um, their knowledge of aerospace into the wind turbine market. We’ll see if that comes to fruition. I’m not sure where these vestus turbine blades are gonna be built. They’re gonna be V 2 36 turbines, 15 megawatt machines out in the water.
I, I assume that the turbine blades are gonna be coming from outside the [00:05:00] uk, but maybe the UK is working on something with Vestus about that.
Rosemary Barnes: I don’t know, but, but the UK government with their auctions has definitely laid the framework that would enable manufacturers to make that sort of investment or that, that sort of investment decision.
So it wouldn’t, wouldn’t surprise me if we saw more manufacturing there. They’ve got, you know, the most secure, uh, and long, long term pipeline, more the most visibility around. Future projects. So if I was a company looking for, you know, where am I gonna open another factory, that would probably be quite appealing.
That security really helps when you’re planning out a factory to know that you’re highly likely to have orders filling it for, you know, the lifetime of the factory. Even if costs are a little bit higher, I think that it would be, you know, you can offset a certain amount of cost by. The certainty.
Allen Hall: What are the short term ramifications for Chinese wind turbine manufacturers in Europe?
Are you gonna see [00:06:00] more of these type of moves like the UK just did today, where they’re gonna put some prohibitions in? Or will there be some places that, uh, Chinese manufacturers can set up base?
Rosemary Barnes: To me, it’s really strange because it’s, it’s like you’re worried about security, so you don’t let them come bring their technology to your country.
It’s. Like the, to me, the obvious thing is the other way around. If they’re worried about, um, technology transfer and IP theft, that they, um, should have prevented European wind turbine manufacturers from sitting up factories in China, because surely that’s how the big transfer of knowledge happened. Now China, you know that that’s where, that’s where they learn how to make win winter turbines 10, 20 years ago.
Um, and what they’re doing today in China is, is not, it’s not like static from that. They have also developed their own, you know, their own ideas and taken the technology in a different direction. Why don’t we take the opportunity to learn from that? I, I find it a bit, [00:07:00] a bit funny that, um. Yeah, that you would ban a manufacturer from coming to your country because you’re concerned that they have, um, you know, copied or stolen your technology in the past and can’t see how they’re gonna do that by bringing their tech to your country.
Matthew Stead: And how does that tie in with the discussion we had the other week about the tariffs and removal of tariffs on certain components? Um, Alan, do you know if that’s linked at all?
Allen Hall: I don’t think it’s linked. There hasn’t been any news articles about it. However, there’s gonna be a lot of hard choices made about where components do come from.
That does seem like the UK government is thinking about what components can be made in the uk where UK engineering and technology can be applied to, to change the marketplace and where they want to go buy components. Uh, are they gonna buy them from China or are they gonna buy them from Poland or somewhere in Eastern Europe or somewhere in South America?
There’s a lot of places to buy components today. Or India. I think India is obviously, uh, one of the top choices, [00:08:00] right? Just because it was a colony years ago. And there’s a relationship there between the UK and India. Is that where the technology transfer begins? Uh, instead of it with China? Probably so
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Alright, how tall is too tall? Well, for onshore wind, the answer keeps changing with. Nordics group just receiving its first order for a turbine with a hub height of. Drum roll please. 199 meters. So there must be some sort of limitation at 200 meters is where the limit is. So they came in one meter below it.
It’s what it smells like.
Rosemary Barnes: The limitation would be on the tip height, not the hub height.
Matthew Stead: Should have been 200,
Allen Hall: just routed up to 200. See?
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. But this is Germany, right? Where it’s like you, the number is what engineering says it should be, not what looks nice on a marketing brochure or in a press release.
You know, if, if the tower should be 199.2 meters, then that’s what it will be.
Allen Hall: Well, three of these 199 meter towers rise up in a project in the North Rhine with Flia area of Germany, and it’s gonna drink power in a very [00:10:00] low wind speed region. Uh, the. Towers are gonna be constructed in typical Nordic fashion, and the, the top portion of the tower will be steel.
The, the lower portion will be concrete. So you may be talking about what height for concrete are you talking about a 50 or a hundred meters of a concrete tower? That seems amazingly high because Nordex does a unique thing where they, they kind of jigsaw piece together and erected that way. I don’t. I think I’ve seen them do anything nearly that high.
But, uh, there are other ways to get to that hub height, but it does seem like concrete and steel are gonna be the pathway. Are we gonna see more of this? Uh, as wind turbines move off the prime spots where the wind speeds are high, that instead of looking, putting more turbines where the wind speeds are high, you’re just gonna put.
Really, really tall turbines up with massive rotor diameters to keep them spinning.
Rosemary Barnes: [00:11:00] Yeah. But I think it kind of makes sense in Europe, like this project, it’s three turbines, right? So if you had smaller turbines, like a smaller turbine might be cheaper per megawatt. Um, in terms of like if you have a really large wind farm with just a lot of them.
But this site, you know, imagine they’ve got a triangular plot and they can put one turbine at each corner. They’ve really, really wanna maximize the amount of power that they can get from each, each turbine because it, you know, like on a small site, the area it’s capturing, it kind of extends past the, the edges of the land footprint, right?
Because they’ve got, you know, such huge, huge turbines. So for those really small projects, I think that it is a different, um, equation that they’re calculating. For what the optimal turbine size is. And it, it does make sense to really go after every what that you can get from that site. Since you, you’ve got so few turbines that you can work with.
Allen Hall: Well, they need unique construction methods to get the [00:12:00]blades that high and to get them the cell on top of the tower.
Rosemary Barnes: I guess a crane, a specialized crane will be the, a tricky thing.
Matthew Stead: And then how do you repair it? You know when, when you need to change a blade out, how you gonna get it? That crane bag. Uh, how, how, how are you gonna get up and down?
I mean, it’s gonna take you half an hour to, in a little lift to get up. And what if you need to go to the toilet?
Allen Hall: Let’s get to the heart of the matter.
Yolanda Padron: Yeah. I mean, at least it’s only three, right?
Allen Hall: But it’s gonna take you how long to get up that tower if you’re in the lift. Those lifts don’t move that fast.
And it isn’t like you’re in, you know, a modern office building where the elevators move very quickly. It’s gonna take a little bit of time. Uh, I guess things, things we’re gonna have to figure out, uh, because we have seen a number of technologies that, they talked about installing blades, using cables, and you see some of that more recently, but 200, roughly 200 meters high is a long way to go.
So they must have a plan on how they’re going to do it.
Rosemary Barnes: So a co Google says that wind turbine [00:13:00] lifts slash elevators range from 0.3 meters per second to one meters per second. Um, I guess at your fast
Allen Hall: 200 seconds.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. So at at best, it’ll take you three and a half minutes to get up there and at worst. 10 minutes.
Matthew Stead: So definitely a toilet up
Rosemary Barnes: there. There’s no way there’s a toilet up there. Kept real, Matt, they put toilets up in wind turbines, you hold it or you know, if you’re a gross man, then you just, you, you go off the side and they will tell you, you know, like when you. When you’re doing site, your site inductions, it’s like, oh, don’t park in this location because people pee there.
Allen Hall: Are you downwind?
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, your car could get hit.
Allen Hall: Do they have a wind sock at the bottom of each of the towers? Is that what’s going on?
Yolanda Padron: I mean, at least like 10 minutes isn’t too bad compared to like when you’re free climbing the smaller towers that didn’t have the lifts in them yet. Like that take, I mean, I might be slow.
It took me like half an hour at least
Rosemary Barnes: Last [00:14:00] time I was on site, some of the team were climbing. ’cause that’s just the exercise that they get. And they climbed the same speed as the um, as the lift roughly. Um, but I don’t think they would do that over 200 meters. You know, I think, you know, there’s a difference at a hundred meters versus 200 meters of, of climbing like that.
I mean, it makes sense. You don’t need a gym membership, you don’t need to go for a run after work ’cause you’ve got your exercise during the day.
Yolanda Padron: That’s after that.
Matthew Stead: I’m just wondering about how much it would actually be moving around, like when it’s, when it’s under maintenance, how much, um, horizontal sway you’d actually get.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. I mean, already when you stand at the top of a, um, a wind turbine tower, you definitely feel it.
Matthew Stead: You’re getting sway.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. So. More than that, but it is, I mean, it’s, it’s evolution not revolution, right? Like, we’ve already got towers that are 160, 180 meters tall, so it’s a, a little bit more than that.
It’s let’s not, let’s not get too crazy. It’s not changing the world, it’s just, [00:15:00] you know, we, we know all the bad problems for tall towers and these are a little bit worse,
Yolanda Padron: but it’s only pre, so it’s not a hundred big, big, big towers, right?
Allen Hall: I think you gotta be careful because it, when you get to these hub heights.
Everybody on the ground in the neighborhood can see it forever. Uh, it does raise concerns. I know it will in the states. I don’t think you’ll ever see a hub height that high. It could be wrong on shore, but it, it wouldn’t seem like that would be a smart move for a lot of operators. ’cause there’s a lot more ground.
Right. And the winds are pretty good in America, so you can just spread it out. But making taller turbines would be a big pushback I think, from society.
Rosemary Barnes: Then, which who, whose record are they breaking? I thought that they, this, yeah, this is the tallest hub height on shore.
Allen Hall: Their own.
Rosemary Barnes: But don’t we also have that announced project from Fortescue?
What are their Tower Heights gonna be using the NRA lift technology a hundred, 180. Those are in the absolute middle of nowhere. There’s definitely no neighbors there that are [00:16:00] complaining about heights, but there’s also absolutely no shortage of land there. You know, have as many turbines as you want, so they’re.
Doing it. Yeah. Like a totally different calculation to figure out what’s the optimal tower height. And they’ve come to similar conclusions. So that’s kind of interesting.
Yolanda Padron: Going back to the, the, you know, people complaining issue. I know of some communities who have benefited a lot from wind turbines in the states and like seeing them just because they know like, oh.
Every time that’s spinning, like, I’m getting more this quarter. You know, like that, that’ll be my nice little bonus. It’s like, it’s a nice passive income. ’cause all they have to do is just have him there. Um, and so I think it, I mean it really depends on what the community is like over there and with regards to.
How they would like, like whether or not they would like to see these huge things in their backyards or to Rosie’s point, if they’ll see them in their backyards. Right. Like it’s, it could just be like the middle of nowhere. [00:17:00]
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. I know in some parts of Europe people don’t mind too much. Like in Denmark, you’re never very far away.
Or in Jutland, at least where I live, you’re never very far away from wind turbine. Like, I couldn’t see them. I probably could see one old one from my house, but, um, you know, like they’re, they’re not like looming over you. But people aren’t, aren’t so bothered as they would be in Australian suburbs or in parts of the us and also other parts of, like, Southern Germany is not so fond on wind turbines.
So, you know, I think it, it just totally depends on where the area is as to how, how, how happy people are gonna be to, to see them in their daily life
Matthew Stead: or offshore Japan.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I think the key is that you make them, you don’t want ’em to be so tall that someone can look at it, that isn’t benefiting from it.
So. Like in the us if people are getting payments for the turbines, I’m sure they’re happy to look at them and just see dollar signs. But if you are the neighbor whose site was supposed to have a turbine and then they redrew the wind farm and now it doesn’t have a turbine, if you can still see them, they’re gonna piss you off every time you, you [00:18:00] see them.
I think so probably really depends.
Allen Hall: The Tavis billing in Germany is the Commerce Bank at 259 meters. So these turbines will be bigger than that, or taller than that? Yeah,
Matthew Stead: the whole of Germany. Wow.
Allen Hall: As wind energy professionals staying informed is crucial and let’s face it difficult. That’s why the Uptime podcast recommends PES Wind Magazine.
PES Wind offers a diverse range of in-depth articles and expert insights that dive into the most pressing issues facing our energy future. Whether you’re an industry veteran or new to wind, PES Wind has the high quality content you need. Don’t miss out. Visit PS win.com today. While wind turbines and bats have always had an uneasy relationship, now researchers in Germany have found a surprising reason why bats keep flying into the danger zone.
Male bats are using wind turbines as song purs, circling the the cells while [00:19:00] singing courtship calls to attract female bats. A study from the Museum of Nature and in Germany analyze more than. 80,000 audio recordings from its six German turbine sites and found bat songs right in the rotor web zone. The songs draw females tore the turbines, which helps explain why more females than males are found hurt underneath the turbines.
During mating season, uh, researchers say smarter curtailment strategies based on the behavior. It could reduce fatalities and without sacrificing too much energy production. So this is a unique, uh, aspect of bats. I guess there’s a mating process that happens where the bats are chirping and the females come together, but the, the, it’s not a very successful strategy if you run your mate into a winter turbine plate that’s not really accomplishing the goal.
[00:20:00] However, the, the turbine curtailment. Period would actually be limited. Right. So you would know when the bats are out doing this little disco dance or whatever they’re going doing out in Germany. What kind of, what kind of dance does Germany do right now?
What, what’s, what’s the end dance in Germany? Rosemary must know,
Rosemary Barnes: I think it’s still, still pretty, pretty electronic and um, in Berlin the last time I was there anyway,
Allen Hall: so electronic music. Okay. Well, maybe they can play some electronic music and push the male bats away ’cause that’s probably what it’ll do.
But the, this leads back to a lot of discussions about birds and bats in the United States and around the world where there’s just different things happening in every site and we, we tend to wanna have one engineering answer for the worldwide bat and bird community. And that’s not going to be the answer.
You’re gonna have to do a little bit of homework. And Rosemary has pointed this out numbers of times in regards to painting one blade. Black and that that was one experiment and one place, and it’s not transferrable. This could als this, uh, [00:21:00] bat dance span song issue. Could be very local.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, that’s right.
I, I think it’s a, at least a second project with the one blade black thing. But thanks for. Preemptively raising that? I guess so. No, I see everywhere. All over social media. Oh, all you need to do is paint one blade black. Anyway, moving on from that. I, I think you’re right that it’s gonna be highly localized.
It’s gonna depend on the specific kind of bat. Um, and, you know, probably a specific population of bat as well. I know, um, in the US at least, and it’s probably true around the world. There has been a, a massive increase in the amount of funding available for bat scientists, uh, since wind farms started being built and people realized that they affect bats.
So I bet that there’s some, some bat scientists who is just, you know, geeking out over. Just, you know, this new information that they have about the way that, um, bat mating rituals happen. So that’s pretty interesting. It does make me [00:22:00] sad though that, um, yeah, these, these poor bats just trying to fall in love and find a partner and.
Make baby bats and instead they’re getting whacked by a wind turbine. That, yeah, that, that’s not great. I hope that they’re able to pretty, pretty promptly learn enough to be able to at least, you know, stop the turbines and then, you know, they can work on refining it so that they reduce the, um, the losses, um, in order to do that over time.
Allen Hall: Yolanda, you live in one of the back capitals of the world?
Yolanda Padron: I do, yeah.
Allen Hall: I mean.
Yolanda Padron: I’m, I’m not, I cannot say I’m a bad expert at all, but I am really curious to see exactly like. Whether these bats would, or this type of bat would do a similar thing to other tall structures, or if it’s just dependent on structures that move like turbines or have some component that moves.
Or is it just a turbine specific thing? Because I mean, we have bat season right now [00:23:00] in Austin, so like you have all the bats coming out at Sunset, and it’s this huge. Thing and you’ll see them in like tall buildings, but they’ve, not one bat has ever hit my window in my apartment in the whole like four years that I’ve been here.
And a lot of birds have hit it because, I mean, I think birds are slightly dumber than bats, some of them at least.
Allen Hall: Whoa, easy
Rosemary Barnes: bats are amazing though. Like, think, think about it. They have developed sonar capabilities. They’re mammals just like us. They can fly. We had to develop fighter jets, basically like billions of dollars spent on defense programs to develop the capabilities that bats have just evolved for themselves.
So I think that you do have to give bats a whole lot of credit. I think you have to give birds a lot of credit too. There’s a lot of very smart birds, but birds do fly into stationary things in a way. Bats don’t seem as likely to. What you do see in Australia is a lot of bats, um, electrocute themselves on power [00:24:00] lines if they, ’cause our bats are quite big here.
Matthew Stead: Um, but I was thinking, um, you know, like, uh, a way of keeping away males from shopping malls is to play elevator music, so maybe they could change the sound that. Around the turbine, and maybe they could play like elevator music rather than disco music.
Allen Hall: I, I, I, I like you a lot. This question like, why are they there?
Like what’s, what’s attracting the bats to the turbines to begin with? Why are the male bats there? What’s their echolocation something?
Rosemary Barnes: But I mean, these are questions, I’m sure bat scientists asking these questions, and now they’ll probably have funding open up to them to know the answer. So I like, I, I think.
There’s, there’s pluses and minuses. There’s obviously minuses for the bats that are being affected right now, but in the long term I think that it’s, you know, it’s good for the field of bat science. I’m sure that there’s like some, um, technical name for a bat scientist, and I’m sorry, I dunno it. Chiro neurologist.
Chiro neurologist. [00:25:00] I.
Allen Hall: If that another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Reach out to us on LinkedIn, and if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show For Rosie, Yolanda and Matthew, I’m Allen Hall and we’ll see you here next week on the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast.
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In the case of Trump, it serves several purposes. Not only does it silence an opposing voice, but it also a) explains (to idiots) why life here is so painful and chaotic, b) distracts the public from the Epstein files, gas prices, and the senseless and illegal war, and c) accuses the enemy of the crime that Trump himself is guilty of.
“C” above is absolutely key to the success of a dictator. It’s like blocking and tackling is to football.
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Here’s an interview with a man in a suit and tie who claims that the energy that goes into building solar and wind will never be exceeded by the energy generated by these devices in their lifetimes. As the average freshman in college aiming for a degree in science can tell you, this is a bald-faced lie.
The EROI (Energy Return on Investment) on renewables is somewhere between 10 and 30, meaning that if you put a kilowatt-hour of energy into solar or wind, you’ll get at least 10 kwhrs out on the worst of conditions, and 30 on the best.
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Offshore Turbine Prices Jump, Data Centers Squeeze US Grids
Weather Guard Lightning Tech
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Offshore Turbine Prices Jump, Data Centers Squeeze US Grids
Rystad reports offshore turbine prices have jumped 45% since 2020, plus data centers squeeze US grids, Fortescue chases real zero by 2030, and GE Vernova battles Vineyard Wind in court.
Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly newsletter on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on YouTube, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!
The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast, brought to you by StrikeTape, protecting thousands of wind turbines from lightning damage worldwide. Visit striketape.com. And now, your hosts.
Allen Hall 2025: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall, and I’m here with Rosemary Barnes, who’s been busy in Australia up in Sydney at a energy conference.
Rosemary, what happened this past week?
Rosemary Barnes: Oh, yeah. I’ve been up in Sydney for the Smart Energy Conference and Exhibition. It’s a big… I don’t know if it’s the biggest. I think they get about 12,000 people or something through the doors. So yeah, it’s, it’s one of the big, maybe the biggest, um, energy conference in Australia.
It’s really focused on distributed energy households. So in the past, it was, like, nearly all solar, um, like rooftop solar. There used to be lots of installers that were there and, yeah, there’s heaps of solar [00:01:00] panels around in the exhibition hall. And over the last few years it’s been a mix of batteries and solar, and then now this year it was basically 99% batteries, 1% EV chargers, and almost not a solar panel to be seen.
I didn’t actually spend that much time in the exhibition this year. I mostly was, um, attending sessions. Andrew Forrest from Fortescue headlined, and that was really good. I haven’t seen him speak live before. Y- you know, he, he told about all the, like, good plans that Fortescue’s doing to get to real zero by 2030.
So he’s on a real rampage at the moment to try and get rid of the diesel rebate that we pay at the moment. We pay diesel users a, a, yeah, a fuel, fuel rebate. It was just cool to hear about y- you know, all of Fortescue’s plans, why they’ve got this big green grid that they’re building out in the Pilbara.
Um, I really liked when he said, you know, it’s not, it’s not magic, it’s, um, it’s just, what did he say? Like, maths, physics, engineering, and [00:02:00]economics, and a bit of courageous leadership. That’s what you need to make a green, a green electricity grid. So I really like that the, you know, engineering was mentioned, was mentioned there.
I did actually get the chance to ask him a question, too. Wanted to know, um, you know, like, Fortescue is, is really one of the most interesting things about the company is that they are using brand-new technologies or even not quite there yet technologies. I asked, uh, Andrew Forrest, I asked him, you know, like, how you make these bold, bold decisions, does it ever, you know, worry you that it’s not gonna work out?
And I was assuming he would say, “It doesn’t worry me,” um, because, you know, he has that kind of brash, confident personality. So I, you know, my follow-up was, what, what steps do you take so that you aren’t worried by it? And he said it does worry him, and he s- stays awake every night worrying, worrying about if these technologies aren’t going to work.
And that, uh, basically they try and have a really, really solid plan B that isn’t a [00:03:00] brand-new technology. So, um, you can, you know, infer from that, that if the– I mean, first of all, he said, “We don’t invest in the technology until they have demons- demonstrated with a good prototype that it’s likely to work.”
Um, but I guess that, you know, assuming that they’ve ran into problems in the rollout of all of these Naberebo towers, that, um, they have a backup of some conventional towers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, uh, the, the Fortescue people, when we talked to them about, pfoof, probably six months ago, maybe a little bit longer, we were helping to build a farm out in Western Australia.
It was a small team, much smaller than anything you would see in the US, and it does sort of align with the Australian approach to it, is that you don’t need a massive team of people to do these projects. You just need to know what you’re doing, and that was really remarkable. So e- I’m not surprised that Fortescue is continuing on in, in different aspects.
It does seem like they’re pretty bold about their engineering approach and taking on massive projects that otherwise wouldn’t be [00:04:00] done and-
Rosemary Barnes: It, it’s also really cool to hear, uh, Andrew Forrest or anyone from Fortescue talk because they’re talking about things that they’ve done. You know, like we have so much when you’re at these, uh, events and, you know, everyone’s doing these inspiring talks, it’s always about, “Oh, this is the possibility for the future.”
But Fortescue has actually, has actually done it. Yeah, there was a lot of, like, actual progress discussed at this conference. It wasn’t, “This is what we could do if we all joined hands and sang Kumbaya.” It wasn’t like that, you know? It’s like, this is what’s happening when the engineering is there, the economics are there, and the government isn’t standing in the way.
Um, y- you know, you can make a lot of, a lot of progress. And you know what? Like now we’ve got so much distributed energy in Australia. It’s the rooftop solar that we’ve been building for, you know, 20 years by now. Um, and it’s the, the batteries especially. Like it is a- starting to have a noticeable impact on electricity prices, and co- coal and gas are both reducing in the grid.
I think the last quarter of gas use in Australia was the lowest it’s [00:05:00] been since 1999. Like, um, yeah, so it’s, yeah, it’s, it, it’s dropping, you know? And so I think that that’s a really unique story for Australia is that households can actually really change the dial.
Speaker 2: Well, can I ask you about that? Because the data center issue is popping up again in the United States, and one of the things about data centers is they feel like you, you’re gonna need a good amount of batteries to support if the grid hops on or turns off, that they wanna be able to support this data center, so having a buffer and batteries would make a lot of sense.
However, there’s not a lot of battery storage in the US at the minute versus a place like Australia where there’s a lot of it. Doesn’t it make a lot of sense to start putting data centers in Australia? I still don’t understand Why that hasn’t been done? Because electricity prices are cheaper, the land is available, the infrastructure’s there.
It’s going [00:06:00] to be, you would think, easier to build in Australia than it would be in the United States. What’s the dilemma there?
Rosemary Barnes: I think certainly there are plenty of plans to build big data centers in Australia. Um, and now I’m gonna go, like, move a little bit outside my expertise, but I think that one of the issues is that at the moment, a lot of the data centers need to be quite close to where the work is happening.
So I mean, you’re always gonna need data centers close to any big city where people are, are using the internet. Um, but aside from that, you know, like, the tech sector in the US is much bigger, so the people actually developing, um, you know, training, um, uh, yeah, training AI models, um, are more likely to be sitting in the US and, you know, need a large amount…
Not all of their compute needs to happen nearby, but a fair chunk of it. And so I think that that is one reason why so far that’s where it is. Um, but it also doesn’t mean… I mean, there’s [00:07:00] plenty of smart, um smart computer types in Australia as well as the US, so you could start to see more companies moving, um, moving to where electricity is cheap.
I think that– And grid connections are fast.
Speaker 2: The one thing you notice about using any of the AI platforms today is, like, there’s a built-in delay. Unlike when you’re on Amazon or any other s- active site, when you click, you want something to happen immediately. With AI, they, they build in a little wait process, which means you can have a data center anywhere, because you’re not expecting an instantaneous response from it.
That means, in a sense, they’re setting it up to be a global industry. There is more of a delay now than there was a month ago. And I assume that has to do with usage, and they’re trying to manage all the data usage, right? So electricity is one of the limitations in the United States. That’s evident right now.
The amount of data centers is a problem, so they’re trying to spread out the usage, and they are definitely… At least Anthropic is slowing it down. [00:08:00] I’d imagine all the other ones are doing the same thing. So it does open up the world to cheaper electricity.
Rosemary Barnes: There’s heaps of really interesting work happening in trying to get, um, AI and data centers to be better grid citizens, not probably primarily out of the goodness of their heart, but because of two things.
One, grid connections are really slow, and so there’s a strong incentive that you can save, in some places, years off your development time if you can just bring in enough batteries, enough smart tech to make sure that you’re never going to, um, you know, add to peak, peak load in the grid, then you can- You know, change how things go.
It’s also a matter of, like, social license as well, because at the moment it’s probably not too bad. People don’t realize too much. But if people’s electricity prices start going up because, you know, grid had to be built out because of da- data centers, they’re gonna start getting pissed as soon as they realize what that is.
So I think [00:09:00] that, um, you know, these big companies, what do they call them? Hyperscalers. I think that they’re aware that that is gonna come and that that is a really strong incentive to do the right thing before they are made to do the right thing. Because, you know, like, if people got really upset then, um, you could easily have the rug pulled out from underneath a project that you thought was all set to go ahead, you know, could very easily be delayed indefinitely.
I mean, we’ve definitely seen in the US that-
Speaker 2: Right. In 30 states in the US have already put prohibitions or limitations on data centers. That means there’s only 20 states left. Alaska is probably not a prime choice, Hawaii is not either, so you even have fewer. It does seem odd that when these limitations pop up that the discussion doesn’t move to other countries.
Australia being an easy one, because electricity there is practically free. It seems like a smart move, but they haven’t made it yet.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I mean, it’s not, it’s not [00:10:00] practically free in Australia yet, but I think that the, um, horizon, um, like the, you know, the outlook is it’s, it’s getting cheap. We… And we are finally seeing wholesale prices actually start to come down.
But there’s this really awkward middle period though, you know, like, because, um, at the moment we’ve still got all of the… nearly all of the coal generation there, nearly all of the gas generation is there, and you need to have it there until you build out the other stuff. But it’s like prices drop and drop and drop when you’ve got this oversupply problem.
But you’re gonna have the oversupply problem until you’ve got enough to start turning off, you know, gigawatt, two gigawatt, um, thermal generators. So it is a really weird middle, um, mid- mid-transition, I think is the term for it. You need planning. You know, you need… You actually do need… At some point you need a plan, and you need to execute it and expect that, like, every step you take is not gonna be better.
Y- you know, like [00:11:00] some steps you’re gonna take that are gonna make it, um, economically worse for the short term. But, you know, like, if you’ve got a mountain range in between you and your destination, then yeah, like it’s, it’s really hard going for a while. But you’ve gotta climb that mountain if you wanna get to the other side and, um, you, and you, you can’t do that without a plan.
Speaker 2: Well, what other place on the planet has or will have shortly unused gigawatts of old generation? I don’t think I know of one. It, it’s gonna be Australia So th-those gigawatt plants that were thermal plants that won’t be needed ’cause the price of electricity is so low, it does seem like a smart person would put a data center right next door to it.
Rosemary Barnes: No, but we wanna turn ’em off. I
Speaker 2: don’t think you’re gonna be able to, Rosemary. I’m just saying, the world needs, uh, AI and it’s coming.
Rosemary Barnes: We’ll see. I think that, um, you know, I did get quite energized by the event, the, um, SSE event that I was at this week because it’s like there are a few things that [00:12:00] Australia, um, you know, really has, like, an opportunity to be world leaders in.
And when you get to be the leader, then it means that the technologies that you invent to solve the problems that, you know, the early adopters have, you have the headstart on that. And, you know, as other countries follow in your footsteps, you have the opportunity to lead, lead those technologies.
Speaker 2: As wind energy professionals, staying informed is crucial, and let’s face it, difficult.
That’s why “The Uptime Podcast” recommends PES Wind Magazine. PES Wind offers a diverse range of in-depth articles and expert insights that dive into the most pressing issues facing our energy future. Whether you’re an industry veteran or new to wind, PES Wind has the high-quality content you need. Don’t miss out.
Visit peswind.com today. So if you want to build an offshore wind farm in Europe right now, you had better be ready to pay. A new analysis from Rystad Energy shows that the turbine selling prices have jumped between 40% and 45% [00:13:00] since 2020. And here’s the thing, manufacturing costs only went up about 20% to 25% over the same period.
The difference is pure pricing power. And with GE Vernova out of the new offshore order book and only Siemens Gamesa and Vestas left to supply Western markets, developers are facing a seller’s market in the most critical of components. Nacelles and blades are where the bottleneck hits hardest, and there is no quick fix in sight.
So Rosemary, Siemens Gamesa and Vestas are leveraging the, the lack of com- competition, particularly from China at the moment, to gather market share and to raise prices, which I think everybody would agree if you’re on the engineering side of wind turbines, the prices needed to come up because there’s some work that needs to be done, and the engineering side has been pretty thin.
To make these turbines more resilient, [00:14:00] you’re gonna need more engineering, it can be a little bit more on the manufacturing side. That takes money So prices had to come up
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I mean, I, I, I agree. It’s definitely n- not the case that everyone would agree. Anybody who has a spreadsheet and they’re trying to get the number, number right so that they can develop a new project is gonna say that it’s a bad thing, and it will also probably slow down development a little bit.
Although, I guess if there was a supply constraint, then that was already a natural, um, handbrake, so maybe there’s no difference. But I do think that, um, you know, and I’ve said it a lot of times, like, you know, wind power reduced, it had a really steep cost reduction curve through the 20-teens, and I think that it was just artificial.
You know, like it was driven by competition rather than true cost reductions in the technology. I think we undershot the price level that it needed to go for, and there just wasn’t enough money to do proper engineering, and, you know, w- we see that. Y- you know, you and I work in O&M, and we deal ev- every day with, with things where it’s like how did, [00:15:00] uh, how, how did they think that this technology was ready when they went and sold thousands of turbines with it?
And I know that the answer is not that, um, engineers were lazy or stupid or just didn’t s- see the problems coming up. It was just too, too fast a pace of technology, um, rollout, like new technologies combined with just relentless focus on, on cost. You know, like all of my projects, it’s just like you just have to reduce cost and reduce it and reduce it and reduce it and, you know, to the point where you’re making changes that you don’t have time to fully check.
Um, and, you know, then you have quality problems in the field.
Speaker 2: What’s the effect of an Indian manufacturing company in Europe on the offshore marketplace? If like an Adani or one of the other, Suzlon, one of the, one of the big manufacturers in India decides to make offshore wind turbines at scale, [00:16:00] wouldn’t that dramatically shift the marketplace in Europe?
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I guess if you’ve got a new player, it’s always gonna shift things a bit. I don’t think it matters specifically that it’s Indian. Um, but a new player is gonna wanna be making sales and probably, you know, setting their price at the point that, that they need to, to, um, get those sales, maybe not initially worried so much about profits.
If we were talking about Chinese manufacturers in Europe, and we have in the past, if we’re talking about that, then I think that that is a bit more relevant which, which country it is because China, you know, has just like essentially infinite money to put behind it and can keep on going long enough. You know, like they don’t need to make a, a profit every single year or every single five-year period even.
They can think longer term. I, I, as far as I know, India is not quite the same as that, so I would expect it to be a bit more short-lived, but that’s always the risk that, you know, someone comes in and [00:17:00] undercuts, um, undercuts for long enough that it- causes the local local, uh, manufacturers to not be able to compete and shut down
Speaker 2: Well, just knowing some of the operators that were doing offshore wind projects and their desire to bring in a alternative to keep prices to the level that they could accept, with Mingyang being shut out at the minute, they’re gonna have to look somewhere else.
So I think the only place they can find an alternative lower price competitor is gonna be India. Although the turbines aren’t at scale yet, I, I think you’ll see somebody make noise about it in the next six months on the operations side.
Rosemary Barnes: I think the European manufacturer is a probably better place to just scale up.
Speaker 2: Well, let’s talk about GE Vernova for a minute, because the legal fight over America’s first large off-scale wind farm just got more complicated because Vineyard Wind reached commercial operations on April 24th, about a week or [00:18:00] two ago, and activated its purchase power agreement. Well, uh, now GE Vernova is using those very milestones against Vineyard Wind in court.
GE Vernova filed an emergency motion arguing that the activation of those contracts undermines Vineyard Wind’s claims of irreparable harm. But Vineyard Wind’s attorney says the project is generating at less than half of its 806 megawatts capacity, and GE Vernova’s work is still needed to get it there.
The next court hearing is set for this week. This little battle continues, and it’s– Although it seems fairly quiet, you don’t hear a lot of news reports about it in, uh, particularly the mainstream press, not too much about it, it– this has huge ramifications because as we talked about offshore wind over in Europe, if, if GE is truly getting out, and particularly if they’re in a fight with one of their largest purchasers of turbines, it’s gonna [00:19:00] disincentivize Europeans from even considering GE.
In my opinion, I don’t know how you would think that GE would be one of the options. Although you would like to have three competitors bidding on every project in Europe, I think GE’s taken itself out of the marketplace because of this, this lawsuit.
Rosemary Barnes: Mm. You know what it reminds me of? It, um, it reminds me of the Justin Baldoni versus Blake Lively lawsuit that’s ongoing at the moment, where it’s just, like, mutually assured destruction.
Speaker 2: But at least they settled, Rosemary. They’re, they’re not fighting anymore.
Rosemary Barnes: They settled, but they didn’t settle all aspects of it.
Speaker 2: The only reason I know about that is because you keep mentioning it. So when I see it pop up, I would normally just let it go. But I figured Rosemary’s focused on this, I should probably at least dabble in it briefly.
That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you Reach out to us [00:20:00] on LinkedIn, and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. And if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review.
It helps other wind energy professionals follow the show. For Rosie, I’m Allen Hall, and we’ll see you next week on the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast.
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