Africa’s carbon markets are growing fast. Governments, companies, and global institutions are paying more attention to the continent’s carbon credit potential. Estimates from a renewable energy company’s research arm, Axina Group, show Africa’s carbon market could reach $100 billion by 2030 and grow even more over time.

This growth depends on strong policies and good market systems. Countries that control how carbon credits are made, verified, and sold—called sovereign carbon markets—can capture more value. This also helps them reach climate goals.

The Africa Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) sets a clear roadmap. It aims to produce 300 million carbon credits per year by 2030, growing to 1.5 billion credits per year by 2050. This could make Africa one of the world’s largest carbon credit producers.

Global organizations, including the World Bank, support this view. They point to Africa’s natural resources and improving policies as key reasons for growth.

Africa’s Green Gold: Forests, Wetlands, and Carbon Sinks

Africa has huge natural carbon sinks. These include tropical forests, wetlands, and grasslands. They absorb carbon dioxide from the air, which forms the basis for carbon credits.

Tropical forests alone absorb 1.1–1.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ each year. Millions of hectares of land can also be restored. Projects like reforestation and improved land use create carbon credits. They also improve soil, water, and biodiversity, and provide jobs for local communities.

Nature-based solutions are expected to play a big role. Globally, they could deliver up to one-third of the emissions reductions needed by 2030. Africa has a large share of this opportunity. But today, the continent still produces a small part of global carbon credits, indicating there is room for strong growth.

Several companies and platforms are shaping Africa’s carbon market by developing projects and linking them to buyers. For example, Africa Carbon Partners develops large nature‑based projects that protect forests and generate verified credits across West and Central Africa.

Moreover, ZeroCarbon Africa connects smallholder farmers to global carbon markets with real‑time tracking and fair pricing. Meanwhile, Climera uses blockchain technology to increase transparency in carbon credit issuance and tracking.

Other regional platforms like SB Power Africa and PanAfricaCarbon offer project development and trading services. In addition, global certification bodies like Verra support many African projects by certifying carbon credits under established standards.

• SEE MORE: Why South Africa’s Verra-Certified Grassland Carbon Credits Matter for Voluntary Markets

From Voluntary Markets to Sovereign Systems

Most African carbon projects now operate in voluntary carbon markets (VCMs). Companies buy credits to offset emissions they cannot eliminate. But Africa accounts for only 9–11% of retired carbon credits in recent years.

Sovereign carbon market systems can change this, with governments taking a central role. They set rules, approve projects, and manage sales. This improves transparency and ensures projects meet national climate goals, also called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

Countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, and Gabon are already building national carbon strategies. These strategies aim to capture more value locally. Projects often include rules that share revenue with governments and communities. This can fund local services, climate projects, and economic development.

The AFRICA RISING 2026 report by Axina Group projects specific national revenue from carbon-related assets using sovereign systems. For example:

• Ghana could generate $1.8 billion annually by 2030
• Nigeria could capture over $400 million annually
• Tanzania could reach over $120 million annually
• Mozambique and Uganda also show potential for substantial carbon-linked revenue

These figures illustrate how sovereign systems can keep capital on the continent while encouraging local reinvestment and community benefits.

$100B Carbon Opportunity and Millions of Jobs

Carbon markets are expanding worldwide. The global carbon market reached about $949 billion in 2023. Voluntary carbon markets alone could grow to $10–40 billion by 2030. Carbon removal markets could reach $100 billion per year by 2030–2035, driven by industries like technology, finance, and aviation.

Africa’s projected $100 billion market by 2030 would make it one of the fastest-growing regions. High-quality carbon credits are in demand as companies try to reach net-zero emissions.

Carbon markets can also create many jobs. The ACMI estimates 30 million jobs by 2030, rising to over 110 million by 2050. Jobs include forest restoration, renewable energy projects, land management, and monitoring.

More notably, carbon finance can attract private investment. Many African countries have funding gaps for climate projects. Carbon markets offer a way to bring in private capital.

Revenue from carbon credits can also support communities. At $50 per tonne, nature-based projects could generate $15 billion annually. At $100 per tonne, this could rise to $57 billion. These projects create millions of jobs while helping the environment.

By integrating sovereign systems, individual countries can capture larger shares of these revenues. The AFRICA RISING 2026 report highlights that, with proper frameworks, countries like Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania could earn hundreds of millions to billions annually from carbon assets. This shows the economic value of combining policy, technology, and natural resources.

How Africa Could Lead Globally

Africa has a unique advantage. It has large carbon sinks and relatively low historical emissions compared to developed regions. This means it can grow carbon projects while still meeting climate targets.

If ACMI and country-level strategies succeed, Africa could become a major global supplier of carbon credits. Companies worldwide will need these credits to meet net-zero goals.

Nature-based carbon projects also deliver co-benefits. They improve soil, water, and biodiversity. They support rural livelihoods and local economies. This makes carbon markets a climate and development tool at the same time.

Trust, Fairness, and the Rules of the Game

However, challenges remain. Market integrity is key: Buyers need to trust that credits represent real, permanent emissions reductions.

There are concerns about fairness. Critics warn of “carbon colonialism,” where wealthy countries benefit more than local communities. Policies must ensure communities get a fair share of revenue.

Also, policy gaps exist. Many countries lack clear rules for carbon markets, which can scare investors. Infrastructure and technical tools, such as land management systems and data monitoring, are still developing. Carbon prices vary depending on project type and quality, adding uncertainty.

To succeed, African governments need strong laws, clear policies, and transparent systems. Partnerships with international organizations can build technical expertise. Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems are crucial to ensure credibility.

A Defining Decade Ahead for Africa’s Carbon Markets

Africa’s carbon market is at a turning point. The next ten years will shape how the sector grows and how much it benefits the economy and climate.

If plans succeed, Africa could produce hundreds of millions of carbon credits annually. This would support global climate goals, attract investment, create jobs, and drive sustainable development.

The market’s size depends on policy, pricing, and execution, but demand for carbon credits is rising. Africa has the natural resources to meet that demand. With the right systems, the continent can turn its carbon potential into a long-term economic and climate advantage.

• READ MORE: Microsoft Secures 1.8M Carbon Credits from Africa’s Rainforest Builder

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Asia is entering a new energy era. Electricity demand is rising fast, and global energy giants are moving quickly to secure their position. A major $2.2 billion joint venture between TotalEnergies and Masdar reflects this shift. The deal is not just about building renewable assets. It is about capturing one of the biggest growth stories in global energy.

The simple reality is: Asia will drive most of the world’s electricity demand in the coming decade.

TotalEnergies and Masdar: A Power Partnership Built for Scale

The new joint venture brings together the strengths of both companies under a single platform. It creates a 50:50 partnership that will manage onshore renewable energy assets across nine countries. These include Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and several fast-growing markets in Southeast Asia and Central Asia.

The platform already holds 3 gigawatts (GW) of operational capacity. On top of that, it has a pipeline of 6 GW expected to come online by 2030. This combination gives the venture a strong starting point and a clear growth path.

More importantly, the focus goes beyond just building solar or wind farms. The joint venture plans to integrate solar, wind, and battery storage systems. This approach supports grid stability and ensures a reliable energy supply. As renewable energy expands, such integration becomes essential.

This is not a small regional project. It is a large, coordinated effort designed to meet rising demand while supporting cleaner energy systems.

His Excellency Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Chairman of Masdar, noted:

“The UAE has established itself as a global energy leader by delivering at scale, investing with conviction, and building partnerships that endure. Masdar epitomizes that approach. We are proud to have pioneered renewable energy deployment in Central Asia and the Caucasus, and we have an expanding portfolio in some of the most attractive growth markets in Asia-Pacific. Asia will be the main driver of global electricity demand growth this decade, and this collaboration with TotalEnergies will accelerate our progress across the continent, unlocking new opportunities to deliver the competitive, reliable energy solutions that our partners and customers need.”

• READ MORE:
• TotalEnergies and Google’s 1 GW Solar Deal Signals a New Phase in the Data Center Energy Race 
• TotalEnergies and AllianzGI Team Up on $580M Battery Storage Push in Germany

Asia’s Electricity Boom Is Reshaping Markets: Wood Mackenzie’s Analysis 

Asia has become the engine of global electricity demand. Over the past decade, the region accounted for nearly all new power demand compared to the United States and Europe.

In 2025, the scale reached a historic milestone. As per Wood Mac’s Asia Pacific Power & Renewables: What to look for in 2026 report, China alone generated over 10,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. That was more than the combined output of the U.S. and Europe. At the same time, the rest of Asia continued to produce more electricity than either region year after year.

This growth is not random. It is driven by three powerful forces: rapid industrial expansion, urban population growth, and rising digital infrastructure.

Data centers are now a major driver. As artificial intelligence and cloud computing expand, electricity demand is rising sharply. Countries like Japan, China, and those in Southeast Asia are seeing new demand from this sector alone.

• For example, Japan could add up to 66 TWh of demand from data centers by 2034. China may need an extra 668 TWh by 2030. Southeast Asia will also see steady increases as digital services grow.

Even short-term slowdowns have not changed the bigger picture. In early 2025, trade tensions and tariffs slowed demand growth. China’s power demand growth dropped to 2.5% in the first quarter. India and Southeast Asia also saw weaker numbers.

However, the slowdown did not last long. By the third quarter, demand rebounded strongly. China recorded over 6% growth again. India and Southeast Asia also recovered, supported by industrial output and extreme heat driving cooling needs.

This resilience shows that Asia’s demand growth is not fragile. It is deeply rooted in economic and technological change.

Clean Energy Expansion Keeps Pace

As demand rises, clean energy is expanding quickly across Asia. IEA predicts that by 2030, 56% of the world’s electricity use will be in the Asia Pacific, up from 53% in 2025.

In 2025 alone, the region added nearly 500 GW of wind and solar capacity. This shows strong momentum toward decarbonization.

Governments are also playing a key role. Many countries are introducing policies that allow renewable energy to reach consumers directly. These steps make clean power more accessible and encourage further investment.

However, challenges remain. Supply chain bottlenecks and trade barriers continue to create uncertainty. Equipment shortages, especially for gas turbines, could slow down parts of the energy transition. At the same time, global political shifts are affecting trade flows and investment decisions.

Despite these issues, the overall direction is clear. Clean energy is growing, and it is becoming central to Asia’s power systems.

Strategic Moves in a Competitive Market

The partnership between TotalEnergies and Masdar reflects a deeper strategy. Both companies are positioning themselves for long-term growth in high-demand markets.

For TotalEnergies, the deal supports its Integrated Power strategy. This approach combines renewable generation with flexible energy solutions and market access. It helps the company manage supply and demand more effectively.

For Masdar, the partnership strengthens its presence across Asia. It also brings the advantage of working with a global energy major. This combination improves its ability to scale projects and enter new markets.

Leadership also highlights the importance of this collaboration. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, Chairman of Masdar, emphasized that Asia will drive global electricity demand growth. He also pointed out that partnerships like this will help deliver reliable and competitive energy solutions.

The choice of Abu Dhabi as the control hub adds another layer of significance. It shows how the UAE is expanding its role in global energy markets, especially in clean energy investments.

The Road Ahead: Demand, Data, and Decarbonization

Looking forward, Asia will remain the dominant force in global electricity demand. By 2026, the region is expected to account for about 85% of new power demand worldwide. This is a massive share, especially as the U.S. and Europe also increase their demand due to AI and data centers.

China will continue to lead in absolute terms. However, India and Southeast Asia will play equally important roles as growth engines. Together, they will shape the region’s energy future.

At the same time, the energy transition will face key questions:

• Can renewable energy keep up with rising demand?
• Will supply chain issues slow progress?
• How will countries balance growth with sustainability?

The answers will define the next phase of Asia’s energy story.

Thus, the $2.2 billion joint venture is a signal of where the energy world is heading. Companies are not just building power plants. They are building platforms that combine scale, technology, and market access.

Asia offers the biggest opportunity, but it also demands smart execution. Projects must be large, reliable, and integrated. They must support both growth and sustainability.

And this is why partnerships like the one between TotalEnergies and Masdar matter. They bring together capital, expertise, and long-term vision.

• ALSO READ: Microsoft Leads on Climate: $800M CIF Drives Clean Tech and AI Energy Deals with ADNOC, Masdar, and XRG

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The U.S. Department of Energy is intensifying efforts to secure critical minerals as global supply risks rise. In a new collaboration, the DOE’s Ames National Laboratory and the Critical Materials Innovation Hub have joined hands with Amazon to recover high-value materials from waste.

The partnership focuses on extracting battery-grade graphite and key minerals from discarded textiles and electronic waste. This move reflects a broader U.S. strategy—reduce import dependence, build domestic capacity, and create a circular supply chain for critical materials.

Assistant Secretary of Energy (EERE) Audrey Robertson, leading DOE’s Office of Critical Materials and Energy Innovation, said:

“At scale, the recovery of critical minerals from end-of-life technologies and textile waste has the potential to transform our domestic critical materials supply chains. This pioneering work, made possible by an exciting new partnership with Amazon, supports the Trump Administration’s efforts to reduce our reliance on foreign imports and strengthen our national security.”

U.S. Aims for Domestic Graphite Supply

The collaboration combines materials science with artificial intelligence. Ames Lab and CMI bring decades of expertise in metals refining and advanced materials. Amazon contributes AI, logistics, and large-scale supply chain capabilities.

Ames Laboratory Director Karl Mueller also noted,

“This is an excellent match for Ames National Laboratory’s deep expertise in materials science. For decades, Ames Lab has led the nation in metals refining, purification, and critical materials research—and applying that strength to real-world challenges.”

Turning Textiles into Battery-Grade Graphite 

A major project aims to convert discarded textiles into battery-grade graphite. This is significant because graphite is essential for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems.

Today, the U.S. remains heavily dependent on imports for graphite. In fact, more than 90% of global battery-grade graphite processing is concentrated in China, creating a major supply risk.

• As of 2024, the U.S. imported about 60,000 metric tons of natural graphite, down from roughly 84,000 tons in 2023.
• China remained the largest supplier, accounting for around 67.6% of all natural graphite imports by value.

This is worth roughly $375 million. It represents a slight decrease in volume but still a dominant share of the market.

By extracting graphite from waste, the U.S. can reduce both landfill pressure and foreign dependence. This approach aligns with the DOE’s push to secure materials from “secondary sources” such as waste streams.

• READ MORE: US–China Trade Tensions Heat Up Over Graphite and EV Battery Supply Chains

AWS Powers AI-Driven Mineral Recovery

A second initiative focuses on recovering minerals like gallium from end-of-life IT hardware. Gallium is a critical input for semiconductors, power electronics, and defense technologies.

The importance of this effort is clear. In recent years, China has restricted exports of gallium and germanium, disrupting global supply. These restrictions effectively removed up to 90% of global gallium supply from international markets, exposing major vulnerabilities.

Here, Amazon Web Services will deploy AI tools to map supply chains, identify recovery opportunities, and assess economic feasibility. At the same time, CMI researchers will develop efficient extraction and refining methods.

This fusion of AI and materials science could transform recycling. Instead of being discarded, old electronics could become a reliable domestic source of critical minerals.

A Fragile Supply Chain: Why the U.S. Is Acting Now

Critical minerals are the core of modern industries—from EVs and renewable energy to semiconductors and defense systems. However, U.S. supply chains remain highly vulnerable.

According to recent industry analysis:

• The U.S. is 100% import-reliant for at least 13 critical minerals
• Over 20 additional minerals have an import dependence above 50%
• The country exports much of its raw materials for processing overseas due to limited domestic capacity

China dominates refining and processing, backed by decades of industrial policy. This concentration creates risks of supply disruptions, price spikes, and geopolitical leverage.

To address this, the U.S. government is mobilizing large-scale investments. In 2025, the DOE announced nearly $1 billion in funding to strengthen domestic critical mineral supply chains, with a strong focus on battery materials processing and recycling.

Additionally, new initiatives such as strategic stockpiles and international partnerships are being developed to secure long-term supply.

CMI Hub Leads the Shift to Circular Supply Chains

The Amazon–DOE partnership reflects a major shift in strategy. Traditionally, supply security depended on mining new resources. Now, recycling and “urban mining” are becoming equally important.

The CMI Hub is leading this transition through research in:

• Expanding material supply sources
• Developing substitutes for scarce minerals
• Recovering materials from waste
• Accelerating the commercialization of new technologies

Recycling offers several advantages. It is faster to deploy than mining, less environmentally damaging, and often more cost-effective in the long run. For example, the U.S. has already committed funding to advanced graphite recycling projects to build domestic battery supply chains.

CMI Hub Director Tom Lograsso

“This collaboration is a natural extension of the expertise that CMI Hub was created to deliver. CMI’s mission is to move breakthrough materials technologies from the laboratory into real-world applications on timelines that meet industry’s needs. Working with Amazon gives us the opportunity to apply our capabilities at scale—combining CMI’s materials science expertise with Amazon’s AI to turn innovations into practical solutions that strengthen the nation’s critical materials supply chains.” 

Public–Private Partnerships Drive Scale

This collaboration also highlights a broader trend—closer ties between government research institutions and private companies.

Amazon brings AI, data analytics, and global logistics. Ames Lab and CMI contribute scientific expertise and research infrastructure. Together, they aim to move solutions from the lab to real-world deployment at scale.

Such partnerships are critical because the challenge is not just technical. It also involves economics, infrastructure, and supply chain coordination. By combining strengths, these collaborations can accelerate innovation and reduce risks.

Conclusion: A Strategic Shift With Global Impact

The U.S. is clearly redefining its critical minerals strategy. Instead of relying only on mining, it is tapping into waste as a new resource base.

This approach offers strong advantages:

• Waste streams are abundant and underutilized
• Recycling reduces environmental impact
• Domestic recovery improves supply security

However, challenges remain. Domestic processing capacity is still limited, and scaling recycling technologies will require sustained investment and policy support.

At the same time, AI is emerging as a key enabler. It can optimize recovery processes, improve efficiency, and reduce costs. As adoption grows, it could become a critical tool in securing mineral supply chains.

And the partnership between the DOE, Ames Lab, CMI, and Amazon marks a turning point in how the U.S. approaches critical minerals.

• READ MORE: DOE Launches $500M Funding Drive to Strengthen U.S. Battery Supply Chains and Critical Minerals Processing 
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