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The World Needs 194 New Large Copper Mines to Reach Net Zero

A recent study by researchers from the University of Michigan and Cornell University, published by the International Energy Forum, highlights a critical challenge in the transition to renewable energy in the United States: the insufficient availability of copper to meet the demands of renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles (EVs).

Recent copper price trends show a near 15-month high, which analysts attribute to speculative buying and genuine supply constraints.

copper price 2024

Amid this surging copper prices is an alarming revelation by the researchers from the two universities mentioned.

A Century of Data Reveals a Looming Shortfall

The study examines 120 years of global copper mining data, revealing that current copper production rates cannot keep pace with the copper requirements outlined in US policy guidelines for transitioning to renewable energy.

Particularly concerning is the Inflation Reduction Act’s mandate for 100% electric vehicle production by 2035. EVs require significantly more copper than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, along with additional copper needed for grid upgrades.

According to Adam Simon, co-author of the study, the disparity is stark, saying that: 

“A normal Honda Accord needs about 40 pounds of copper. The same battery electric Honda Accord needs almost 200 pounds of copper. Onshore wind turbines require about 10 tons of copper, and in offshore wind turbines, that amount can more than double.”

The paper shows that the required copper is significantly impossible for miners to generate.

global copper production for green energy transition
Source: International Energy Forum

One key factor contributing to the shortfall is the lengthy permitting process for mining companies. It averages about 20 years from discovery to mine construction approval. 

With over 100 companies mining copper across six continents, the study’s modeling suggests that global copper production may fall short of future demand. This poses significant challenges to achieving renewable energy goals in the US and beyond.

Renewable energy technologies, including solar photovoltaics and wind turbines, depend heavily on copper for efficient electricity transmission and distribution. EVs also require substantial copper for motors, inverters, and wiring.

The 115% Increase Dilemma

The research underscores the immense challenge of meeting future copper demands, particularly in the context of the global energy transition. To illustrate, the study indicates that between 2018 and 2050, humanity will need to mine 115% more copper than has been mined throughout history until 2018 just to sustain current needs and support developing regions, excluding green energy efforts.

The table below provided details of the masses of copper to be supplied by new mines, the corresponding production rates necessary in 2050, and the estimated number of new mines required.

Copper needed by 2050 to meet electrification demands

For instance, to fulfill the demand for 260 million tons of mined copper under a business-as-usual scenario, an average mine output of 8.13 million tons per year (Mtpy) over 32 years is required. Consequently, new mines would need to produce 16.3 Mtpy by 2050. 

The study suggests that mines with an average production rate of 0.472 Mtpy, akin to the top 10 existing mines, would need to be operational by 2050. This necessitates the discovery, permitting, and establishment of a significant number of new mines annually between 2018 and 2050.

The analysis underscores that the bulk of new copper supply will come from large-scale mines due to their substantial production capacity. It highlights the need for the establishment of between 35 and 194 large new mines over the next three decades. That’s equal to an annual rate of 1.1 to 6 new mines to sustain the green transition and meet exploding demand.

Balancing Act: Electrification vs. Essential Infrastructure

For the global vehicle fleet to electrify successfully, the study suggests the need to establish up to 6 new large copper mines annually over the coming decades. Moreover, around 40% of the output from these mines will be crucial for electric vehicle-related grid enhancements.

In another estimates by the Copper Development Association, below is what the EV industry requires for copper.

copper demand for electric vehicles EVsAdam Simon emphasizes the importance of adopting pragmatic approaches to the energy transition. Rather than solely focusing on fully electrifying vehicle fleets, he proposes exploring hybrid vehicle manufacturing as a more feasible alternative.

Furthermore, Simon emphasizes the indispensable role of copper in developing countries for critical infrastructure projects like electrification, clean water facilities, and sanitation systems. Balancing these diverse needs highlights the complexity of the copper allocation dilemma amidst the global energy transition.

“Our study highlights that significant progress can be made to reduce emissions in the United States. However, the current — almost singular — emphasis on downstream manufacture of renewable energy technologies cannot be met by upstream mine production of copper and other metals without a complete mindset change about mining among environmental groups and policymakers.”

Ultimately, the study urges a nuanced approach that acknowledges the critical role of copper in enabling sustainable development.

The post The World Needs 194 New Large Copper Mines to Reach Net Zero appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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