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The Ultimate Guide to Nickel Supply Demand Nickel Prices

nickel Price Analysis Today

Nickel prices slipped 0.28% today to $17,388.31/Ton globally and ¥120,132/Ton in China. This minor pullback is primarily driven by a strengthening US dollar and escalating Middle East tensions, which have fueled broader risk-off sentiment across industrial metals. Additionally, surging LME inventories—driven by an influx of Chinese material amid weak domestic demand—continue to cap upside momentum. However, ongoing concerns regarding Indonesian ore quota supply constraints provide a solid floor, preventing a steeper decline.


Nickel has moved from being a niche industrial metal to a critical pillar of the global energy transition, along with copper, lithium, and uranium.

Once primarily used in stainless steel, nickel is now critical for high-energy-density batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), grid storage, aerospace alloys, and emerging hydrogen infrastructure.

Essentially, it’s now another mineral on that list, albeit one that seems to have largely flown under most investors’ radars thus far. However, it’s understandable why that’s been the case – after all, the primary use for mined nickel has long been industrial, with over three-quarters of global nickel demand being for things like alloy production or electroplating.

Distribution of primary nickel consumption worldwide in 2024, by industry


nickel usage industry

Nickel Basics: Types, Grades, and Industrial Uses

Nickel is a silvery-white transition metal with high corrosion resistance, ductility, and thermal stability. Its unique properties make it indispensable in alloys and electrochemical applications.

Nickel is generally classified into two main categories:

  • Class 1 nickel: High-purity nickel metal, powders, briquettes, and salts such as nickel sulfate. These are essential for battery cathodes, advanced alloys, and aerospace applications.
  • Class 2 nickel: Ferronickel and nickel pig iron (NPI), primarily used in stainless steel production.

Historically, stainless steel accounted for roughly two-thirds of nickel consumption, providing a stable demand base. However, batteries have emerged as the fastest-growing segment, particularly for nickel-rich cathode chemistries such as NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) and NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum).

Aerospace, defense, and superalloys also rely heavily on nickel for high-temperature and corrosion-resistant applications.

This dual-market nature—spanning bulk industrial use and high-tech energy transition applications—makes nickel one of the most structurally complex metals in the critical minerals ecosystem.

Nickel Processing Technologies: The Backbone of the EV and Steel Boom

Not all nickel is equal, and processing technology determines where it ends up. Nickel processing is the set of industrial methods used to extract nickel from its ores and turn it into usable forms for various industries, including stainless steel, batteries, and alloys. Essentially, it’s how raw nickel in rocks becomes the high-purity metal or chemical compounds needed for manufacturing.

Nickel is mined mainly from two types of ores:

  • Sulfide ores – Found deep underground, easier to process, high purity.
  • Laterite ores – Found near the surface, lower nickel content, more challenging to process.

The Case Of Battery Grade Nickel

In order to be used in an electric vehicle, nickel must first be refined to extremely high purities, creating what’s known as “battery grade” nickel. Following this, it then needs to be dissolved in sulphuric acid to create nickel sulphate, which can then be used to produce battery cathodes.

Nickel’s high energy density, which allows it to hold more charge for less weight, makes high-nickel battery chemistries more desirable in EV batteries. While the first iterations of the lithium-ion battery used equal proportions of nickel, manganese, and cobalt, modern ones use as much nickel as manganese and cobalt combined.

And as technology continues to progress, it’s expected that the ratio will rise to as much as 80% nickel, or even more.

Now here’s a simple breakdown of the processing technologies:

Pyrometallurgy Still Dominates Stainless Steel

High-temperature smelting remains the most common route for nickel extraction. Rotary kiln–electric furnace (RKEF) and flash smelting convert sulfide and laterite ores into ferronickel or nickel pig iron (NPI). These products suit stainless steel, but they consume large amounts of energy and emit significant CO₂.

Notably, NPI and ferronickel continue to anchor global supply.

Hydrometallurgy Powers Battery-Grade Nickel

Hydrometallurgical routes, especially high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL), are becoming critical for EV batteries. HPAL converts laterite ores into mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and then into nickel sulfate for cathodes.

Refining and Recycling Gain Momentum

Electrorefining and solvent extraction deliver high-purity Class 1 nickel. Refined products made up around 60% of the nickel market in 2024. Recycling is also rising as a low-carbon supply source.

In short, nickel processing is splitting into two markets: low-cost NPI for steel and high-purity nickel for batteries. This divide is reshaping supply chains, investment flows, and decarbonization strategies across the metals industry.

The Volatile Nickel Price Cycle 

Unlike lithium, the nickel market is much more complex. The metal sits at the crossroads of geopolitics, industrial demand, and changing battery technology. Over the past five years, nickel prices have been highly volatile.

For example, during the 2022 LME squeeze, prices spiked above $100,000 per tonne. Then they dropped sharply to around $13,900 per tonne in early 2025.

  • Since then, they have started to recover, reaching about $17,200 per tonne by February 2026.

This volatility shows how sensitive nickel is to supply, demand, and global events. As EV demand grows, the nickel market will continue to face swings.

nickel prices

This volatility reflects a structural mismatch between supply expansion and shifting demand patterns. Massive Indonesian production growth has flooded the market, while battery chemistry trends toward lithium iron phosphate (LFP) have reduced nickel intensity in mass-market EVs. At the same time, premium EVs and aerospace applications continue to rely heavily on Class 1 nickel, creating a bifurcated market structure.

For investors, policymakers, and corporates, nickel represents a critical test case for the energy transition economy. Understanding its supply chain, macro drivers, and long-term price scenarios is essential for navigating the next decade of critical minerals markets.

Global Nickel Supply: Indonesia’s Dominance and Market Impact

nickel producers
Source: IEA

Indonesia has reshaped the global nickel market more than any other country. In 2024, its nickel in mine production was 2.2 million tonnes (mt), an increase of 158% over the previous five years. Its rise was fueled by a combination of raw-ore export bans, massive Chinese-backed investments in downstream processing, and the rapid deployment of high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facilities for battery-grade nickel.

By consolidating both mining and smelting, Indonesia has established a vertically integrated nickel ecosystem capable of supplying both stainless steel and battery markets at low cost.

Policy Controls and Quota Management

Despite its dominance, Indonesia’s nickel supply faces tightening government controls in 2026. The government sharply reduced the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to 250–260 million wet metric tonnes (wmt), down from 379 million wmt in 2025 and 298 million wmt initially approved for 2025—a cut of roughly 34%.

The move aims to align ore output with domestic smelter capacity, curb oversupply, and support prices. Following the announcement, LME nickel prices surged past $18,000/t before stabilizing near $17,200/t in February 2026.

Delays in RKAB approvals have already halted operations at mines such as PT Vale Indonesia, signaling enforcement risks for the policy. Meanwhile, demand growth is tempered by slower stainless steel uptake and the structural shift toward LFP batteries, which has helped sustain a global surplus forecast of 261–288 kt in 2026 despite production cuts.

Indonesia’s strategic approach—resource nationalism, controlled expansion, and downstream integration—has fundamentally altered global nickel pricing. Low production costs and government-backed industrial policy allow Indonesian producers to remain profitable even during periods of weak prices.

  • However, S&P Global noted that, “Indonesia is still projected to more than double its production over the next decade to an estimated 4.97 MMt by 2035.”
indonesia nickel
Source: S&P Global

China’s Role in the Nickel Supply Chain

China continues to dominate the processing of nickel intermediates and battery materials. Chinese firms have financed and built much of Indonesia’s upstream infrastructure, including HPAL plants and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) facilities.

It is also the single largest consumer of nickel, driven by domestic stainless steel production and battery manufacturing. Policy shifts, stimulus measures, and industrial planning decisions in China have an outsized impact on global nickel markets, influencing both price and supply chain dynamics.

nickel outlook nickel supply China

Other Global Producers

Beyond Indonesia and China, major nickel-producing countries include Russia, the Philippines, Canada, Australia, and New Caledonia. However, many high-cost producers have struggled to compete with Indonesia’s integrated, low-cost production model. For example, BHP suspended operations at its Nickel West facility in Western Australia amid persistent low prices, highlighting the competitive pressures faced by high-cost producers.

This dynamic has accelerated consolidation in the global nickel industry, with strategic repositioning focused on securing downstream processing and high-grade nickel for energy transition applications.

nickel supply global producers

Nickel Demand Dynamics: Stainless Steel vs. Batteries

Stainless Steel: The Legacy Anchor

Stainless steel remains the primary driver of nickel demand, accounting for roughly two-thirds of consumption. Demand is closely tied to construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing activity. China, the world’s largest stainless steel producer, remains a key macro driver for nickel demand globally.

Class 1 Nickel: Powering the EV Boom

Nickel demand for batteries has grown fast over the past decade. Class 1 nickel, with purity above 99.8%, is key for high-energy NMC and NCA batteries. These batteries power premium EVs, giving longer driving ranges and lighter, more efficient vehicles. Advanced cathodes now contain 60–80% nickel, with some designs targeting 90%+ nickel content.

By 2030, nickel-heavy batteries could reach 1,320 MWh globally, covering about 80% of all EV lithium-ion batteries. Battery demand is expected to use over 50% of Class 1 nickel by 2027, growing at 12–15% per year. The average EV battery now contains 28–30 kg of nickel.

But there are risks:

  • LFP batteries, which contain no nickel, are growing in lower-cost EVs, especially in China. Nickel intensity per vehicle has fallen nearly one-third since 2020.

  • Policy differences affect supply: China held 63.5% of global nickel demand in 2025, Europe prioritizes allied supply, and US policies are less stable.

nickel EV battery NMC
Source: Crux Investor

The Lights Are Green for Nickel

Forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) project nickel demand more than doubling by 2035 under current pledges, potentially tripling in net-zero scenarios driven by EVs and storage.

IEA clean energy EV demand
Source: IEA

IEA also projects that nickel use in EV batteries, renewables, and stainless steel is projected to push nickel demand above 5.5 Mt by 2035. As Indonesia tightens output and China dominates downstream processing, Western economies face rising exposure to supply disruptions and geopolitical leverage.​ Even conservative outlooks show 8-9x EV battery demand growth by 2050, despite late-decade plateaus from chemistry shifts.

Long-Term Supply Outlook: From Oversupply to Potential Deficit

As per INSG last year, supply vastly outpaced demand, hitting 209-212 kt global surplus. Recently, S&P Global projected a 156,000-tonne surplus in 2026. However, the same analysis also says that today’s surplus will not last forever.

The report projects that global nickel stocks will peak around 2028. After that, inventories will begin to fall as demand improves and supply growth slows. By the early 2030s, the market balance will flip.

By 2031, S&P Global expects the primary nickel balance to turn negative. EV battery demand will grow as electrification expands. Stainless steel consumption will recover alongside global manufacturing. Significantly, Indonesian supply growth will slow as easy expansions may run out, and regulatory risks can increase.

Once inventories drop below comfortable weeks-of-consumption levels, prices respond quickly. S&P Global points to nickel prices rising toward $25,000 per tonne or higher, especially for Class 1 material.

global nickel market balance
Data source: S&P Global

Policy and Geopolitics: Resource Nationalism and Market Fragmentation

Indonesia exemplifies modern resource nationalism. The government’s export bans, production quotas, and mine suspensions aim to capture downstream value and stabilize prices.

Western governments are responding with critical minerals strategies, including subsidies, domestic mining support, and restrictions on Chinese supply chains. This could fragment the global nickel market into competing blocs, heightening geopolitical risk for downstream industries.

Most importantly, the Trump administration sees developing U.S. nickel supply chains as key to reducing dependence on foreign sources and boosting the domestic industry. Efforts include promoting new mining projects, speeding up permits for critical mineral operations, and exploring tariffs or other trade measures to support local production. One major example is a copper-nickel project in Minnesota, led by a joint venture between Glencore and Teck Resources.

Macro Drivers: Energy Transition, Industrial Demand, and Monetary Policy

Nickel is highly sensitive to macroeconomic and policy conditions. Industrial demand tracks global manufacturing cycles, while battery demand depends on EV adoption rates, subsidies, and consumer behavior.

Interest rates, inflation, and currency fluctuations affect nickel through speculative flows and production financing costs. Meanwhile, energy transition policies, carbon pricing, and ESG mandates are reshaping supply chains, pushing automakers and battery manufacturers to secure long-term nickel supply agreements.

Nickel’s Role in Carbon Markets and Net-Zero Strategies

Nickel’s importance extends beyond industrial use. Battery supply chains are central to decarbonization, embedding nickel demand in national net-zero strategies. Companies increasingly link nickel sourcing to ESG frameworks, carbon disclosure requirements, and sustainability-linked financing.

At the same time, nickel production drives greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. According to a disclosure from the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group), under a scenario accounting for declining ore grades and cleaner grids, emissions could rise 90% from 2020 to 2050. Additionally, a lack of decarbonization could push emissions to 164%.

nickel emissions
Source: IFC

Most emissions come from processing rather than mining. Pyrometallurgical routes for Class 2 nickel (used in stainless steel) are coal-intensive, while Class 1 battery-grade nickel has lower emissions. Shifting to EV-focused, Class 1 production can help limit emissions growth.

Thus, cleaner processing, low-carbon production, and recycling could give automakers and battery makers a competitive edge, while decarbonized electricity is key to controlling nickel emissions as production rises.

Top 3 Nickel Producers Signal Tight Supply Heading into 2026

The global nickel market entered 2026 with cautious signals from its largest producers. Industry analysts revealed that mining output stayed broadly flat, disruptions persisted, and companies focused more on battery-grade processing than expanding supply. This reinforced expectations of a structurally tight nickel market.

Nornickel

Norilsk Nickel, or Nornickel, reported stable but slightly lower production in 2025. The company produced 199,000 tonnes of nickel, down 3% year-on-year, mainly due to a shift toward lower-grade disseminated ore. Production recovered in the fourth quarter, rising 9% quarter-on-quarter to 58,000 tonnes after scheduled maintenance in Q3. Nearly all nickel came from the company’s own Russian feedstock, highlighting its self-reliant supply chain.

For 2026, Nornickel guided nickel output between 193,000 and 203,000 tonnes, signaling flat production with no major expansion plans. Nornickel’s market capitalization stood at about $31 billion as of February 2026, underscoring its role as a major global supplier despite geopolitical constraints.

The lack of growth from one of the world’s key Class 1 nickel producers suggests limited incremental supply from Russia.

Vale

Brazil’s Vale continued to position itself as a strategic player in the battery metals supply chain. The company plans a nickel sulfate refinery in Bécancour, Québec, with deliveries to General Motors targeted for the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals. This move highlighted Vale’s push toward high-purity battery materials rather than bulk nickel mining.

Vale’s market capitalization was around $69–70 billion in early 2026, making it one of the largest diversified miners with significant nickel exposure. It produced 175,000 tonnes of nickel in 2025, reaching the high end of its guidance. Growth came from Canadian operations in Sudbury and Long Harbour and restarts in Brazil.

Looking ahead, Vale Indonesia warned its 2026 mining quota won’t meet demand for new nickel smelters. The approved quota is only about 30% of what the company requested, raising concerns that upcoming processing plants could face ore shortages.

Vale and partners are building three HPAL plants for EV battery nickel. The Pomalaa plant, starting in August 2026, will need 21 million tonnes of limonite ore per year, while Bahodopi will require 10.4 million tonnes annually. These projects represent over $6.5 billion in investment and highlight the growing pressure on Indonesia’s nickel supply.

Glencore

Glencore’s 2025 Full‑Year Production Report showed nickel output from its own sources at 71,900 tonnes, down about 7% from 82,300 tonnes in 2024. This decline was driven by lower production at both Integrated Nickel Operations (INO) and the Murrin Murrin operations. The reported figure excludes 5,000 tonnes from the Koniambo project, which is in care and maintenance.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, nickel production (including third‑party feed) was around 35,300 tonnes, slightly below the prior quarter. Glencore also gave 2026 nickel guidance of 70,000–80,000 tonnes, reflecting a relatively flat outlook after the 2025 drop.

Its nickel business is part of a broader diversified metals portfolio, with the company also producing copper, zinc, cobalt, coal, and other commodities. Nickel remains important to its strategy, especially given rising EV battery demand, but output challenges and asset transitions affected annual totals.

As of February 2026, Glencore’s market capitalization is widely reported to be around $58–61 billion (USD) based on its London Stock Exchange listing and share price.

This positions Glencore as a major diversified mining and commodity trading company, though smaller in market value than some of its peers like Rio Tinto or BHP. The company’s valuation reflects its breadth across metals, energy, and marketing operations, and its prospects are often shaped by commodity price swings and operational performance.

nickel producers
Source: Company reports

Risks and Opportunities for Investors and Policymakers

The top nickel producers showed limited growth in mining output while accelerating investments in battery-grade processing. Ore quality challenges, regulatory delays, and operational disruptions continued to constrain supply. At the same time, electric vehicle demand and energy transition needs kept rising.

The lack of aggressive supply expansion from major producers suggests the nickel market could remain structurally tight through the late 2020s, especially for high-purity Class 1 nickel required in batteries.

This is why nickel stocks present a unique combination of risks and opportunities. Supply concentration, policy interventions, and technological disruption create price volatility. Conversely, long-term demand from electrification, aviation, and hydrogen infrastructure provides structural upside.

Investors must navigate cyclical price swings, while policymakers balance industrial policy with market stability. Strategic supply agreements, diversification, and technology adoption will be crucial for managing risk.

Conclusion: Nickel’s Strategic Decade Ahead

Nickel is entering a decisive decade. The metal is so vital for the global energy transition, but faces structural uncertainty from supply expansion and evolving battery technology.

The next ten years will determine whether nickel becomes a stable metal of clean energy supply chains or a cautionary case study in commodity oversupply and industrial policy missteps. For institutions, understanding nickel’s macro dynamics, supply chains, and policy risks is essential. The metal’s trajectory will shape not only battery markets but also the geopolitics of the global energy transition.


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The post The Ultimate Guide to Nickel: Supply, Demand, and Nickel Prices for 2026 and Beyond appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Apple, Amazon Lead 60+ Firms to Ease Global Carbon Reporting Rules

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Apple, Amazon Lead 60+ Firms to Ease Global Carbon Reporting Rules

More than 60 global companies, including Apple, Amazon, BYD, Salesforce, Mars, and Schneider Electric, are pushing back against proposed changes to global emissions reporting rules. The group is calling for more flexibility under the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG Protocol), the most widely used framework for measuring corporate carbon footprints.

The companies submitted a joint statement asking that new requirements, especially those affecting Scope 2 emissions, remain optional rather than mandatory. Their letter stated:

“To drive critical climate progress, it’s imperative that we get this revision right. We strongly urge the GHGP to improve upon the existing guidance, but not stymie critical electricity decarbonization investments by mandating a change that fundamentally threatens participation in this voluntary market, which acts as the linchpin in decarbonization across nearly all sectors of the economy. The revised guidance must encourage more clean energy procurement and enable more impactful corporate action, not unintentionally discourage it.”

The debate comes at a critical time. Corporate climate disclosures now influence trillions of dollars in capital flows, while stricter reporting rules are being introduced across major economies.

The Rulebook for Carbon: What the GHG Protocol Is and Why It’s Being Updated

The Greenhouse Gas Protocol is the world’s most widely used system for measuring corporate emissions. It is used by over 90% of companies that report greenhouse gas data globally, making it the foundation of most climate disclosures.

It divides emissions into three categories:

  • Scope 1: Direct emissions from operations
  • Scope 2: Emissions from purchased electricity
  • Scope 3: Emissions across the value chain
scope emissions sources overview
Source: GHG Protocol

The current Scope 2 rules were introduced in 2015, but energy markets have changed since then. Renewable energy has expanded, and companies now play a major role in funding clean power.

Corporate buyers have already supported more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity globally through voluntary purchases. This shows how influential the current system has been.

The GHG Protocol is now updating its rules to improve accuracy and transparency. The revision process includes input from more than 45 experts across industry, government, and academia, reflecting its global importance.

Scope 2 Shake-Up: The Battle Over Real-Time Carbon Tracking

The proposed update would shift how companies report electricity emissions. Instead of using flexible systems like renewable energy certificates (RECs), companies would need to match their electricity use with clean energy that is:

  • Generated at the same time, and
  • Located in the same grid region.

This is known as “24/7” or hourly or real-time matching. It aims to reflect the actual impact of electricity use on the grid. Companies, including Apple and Amazon, say this shift could create challenges.

GHG accounting from the sale and purchase of electricity
Source: GHG Protocol

According to industry feedback, stricter rules could raise energy costs and limit access to renewable energy in some regions. It can also slow corporate investment in new clean energy projects.

The concern is that many markets do not yet have enough renewable supply for real-time matching. Infrastructure for tracking hourly emissions is also still developing.

This creates a key tension. The new rules could improve accuracy and reduce greenwashing. But they may also make it harder for companies to scale clean energy quickly.

The outcome will shape how companies measure emissions, invest in renewables, and meet net-zero targets in the years ahead.

Why More Than 60 Companies Oppose the Changes

The companies argue that stricter rules could slow climate progress rather than accelerate it. Their main concern is cost and feasibility. Many regions still lack enough renewable energy to support real-time matching. For global companies, aligning energy use across different grids is complex.

In their joint statement, the group warned that mandatory changes could:

  • Increase electricity prices,
  • Reduce participation in voluntary clean energy markets, and
  • Slow investment in renewable energy projects.

They argue that current market-based systems, such as RECs, have helped scale clean energy quickly over the past decade. Removing flexibility could weaken that momentum.

This reflects a broader tension between accuracy and scalability in climate reporting.

Big Tech Pushback: Apple and Amazon’s Climate Progress

Despite their push for flexibility, both companies have made measurable progress on emissions reduction.

Apple reports that it has reduced its total greenhouse gas emissions by more than 60% compared to 2015 levels, even as revenue grew significantly. The company is targeting carbon neutrality across its entire value chain by 2030. It also reported that supplier renewable energy use helped avoid over 26 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions in 2025 alone.

In addition, about 30% of materials used in Apple products in 2025 were recycled, showing a shift toward circular manufacturing.

Amazon has also set a net-zero target for 2040 under its Climate Pledge. The company is one of the world’s largest corporate buyers of renewable energy and continues to invest heavily in clean power, logistics electrification, and low-carbon infrastructure.

Both companies argue that flexible accounting frameworks have supported these investments at scale.

The Bigger Challenge: Scope 3 and Digital Emissions

The debate over Scope 2 reporting is only part of a larger issue. For most large companies, Scope 3 emissions account for more than 70% of total emissions. These include supply chains, product use, and outsourced services.

In the technology sector, emissions are rising due to:

  • Data centers,
  • Cloud computing, and
  • Artificial intelligence workloads.

Global data centers already consume about 415–460 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity per year, equal to roughly 1.5%–2% of global power demand. This figure is expected to increase sharply. The International Energy Agency estimates that data center electricity demand could double by 2030, driven largely by AI.

This creates a major reporting challenge. Even with cleaner electricity, total emissions can rise as digital demand grows.

Climate Reporting Rules Are Tightening Globally

The pushback comes as climate disclosure requirements are expanding and becoming more standardized across major economies. What was once voluntary ESG reporting is steadily shifting toward mandatory, audit-ready climate transparency.

In the European Union, the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) is now active. It requires large companies and, later, listed SMEs, to share detailed sustainability data. This data must match the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS). This includes granular reporting on emissions across Scope 1, 2, and increasingly Scope 3 value chains.

In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) aims for mandatory climate-related disclosures for public companies. This includes governance, risk exposure, and emissions reporting. However, some parts of the rule face legal and political scrutiny.

The United Kingdom has included climate disclosure through TCFD requirements. Now, it is moving toward ISSB-based global standards to make comparisons easier. Similarly, Canada is progressing with ISSB-aligned mandatory reporting frameworks for large public issuers.

In Asia, momentum is also accelerating. Japan is introducing the Sustainability Standards Board of Japan (SSBJ) rules that match ISSB standards. Meanwhile, China is tightening ESG disclosure rules for listed companies through updates from its securities regulators. Singapore has also mandated climate reporting for listed companies, with phased Scope 3 expansion.

A clear trend is forming across jurisdictions: climate disclosure is aligning with ISSB global standards. There’s a growing focus on assurance, comparability, and transparency in value-chain emissions.

This regulatory tightening raises the bar significantly for corporations. The challenge is clear. Companies must:

  • Align with multiple evolving disclosure regimes,
  • Ensure emissions data is verifiable and auditable, and
  • Expand reporting across complex global supply chains.

Balancing operational growth with compliance is becoming increasingly complex as climate regulation converges and intensifies worldwide.

A Turning Point for Global Carbon Accounting 

The outcome of this debate could shape global carbon accounting standards for years.

If stricter rules are adopted, emissions reporting will become more precise. This could improve transparency and reduce greenwashing risks. However, it may also increase compliance costs and limit flexibility.

If the proposed changes remain optional, companies may continue using current accounting methods. This could support faster clean energy investment, but may leave gaps in reporting accuracy.

The new rules could take effect as early as next year, making this a near-term decision for global companies.

The push by Apple, Amazon, and other companies highlights a key tension in climate strategy. On one side is the need for accurate, real-time emissions reporting. On the other is the need for flexible systems that support large-scale clean energy investment.

As digital infrastructure expands and energy demand rises, how emissions are measured will matter as much as how they are reduced. The next phase of climate action will depend not just on targets—but on the systems used to track them.

The post Apple, Amazon Lead 60+ Firms to Ease Global Carbon Reporting Rules appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Mastercard Beats 2025 Emissions Targets as Revenue Rises 16%, Breaking the Growth vs Carbon Trade-Off

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Mastercard Beats 2025 Emissions Targets as Revenue Rises 16% and Net-Zero Plan Gains Momentum Toward 2040

Mastercard says it has exceeded its 2025 emissions reduction targets while continuing to grow its global business. The company reduced emissions across its operations even as revenue increased strongly in 2025.

The update comes from Mastercard’s official sustainability and technology disclosure published in 2026. It confirms progress toward its long-term goal of net-zero emissions by 2040, covering its full value chain.

The results are important for the financial technology sector. Digital payments depend heavily on data centers and cloud systems, which are energy-intensive and linked to rising global emissions.

Breaking the Pattern: Emissions Fall While Revenue Rises

In 2025, Mastercard surpassed its interim climate targets compared with a 2016 baseline. The company reported a 44% reduction in Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, beating its target of 38%. It also achieved a 46% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, far exceeding its 20% target.

At the same time, Mastercard recorded 16% revenue growth in 2025. This shows that emissions reductions continued even as the business expanded. Mastercard Chief Sustainability Officer Ellen Jackowski and Senior Vice President of Data and Governance Adam Tenzer wrote:

“These results reflect a comprehensive approach built on renewable energy investment and procurement, supply chain engagement, and embedding environmental sustainability into everyday business decisions.”

The company also reported a 1% year-on-year decline in total emissions, marking the third consecutive year of emissions reduction. This is important because digital payment networks usually grow with higher computing demand.

Mastercard says this trend reflects improved efficiency across its operations, better infrastructure use, and increased reliance on cleaner energy sources.

Mastercard 2024 GHG emissions
Source: Mastercard

The Hidden Footprint: Why Data Centers Drive Mastercard’s Emissions

A large share of Mastercard’s emissions comes from its digital infrastructure. According to the company’s sustainability report, data centers account for about 60% of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. Technology-related goods and services make up roughly one-third of Scope 3 emissions.

This reflects how modern financial systems operate. Digital payments, fraud detection, and AI-based analytics require a large-scale computing infrastructure.

Global data centers already consume about 415–460 TWh of electricity per year, equal to roughly 1.5%–2% of global electricity demand. This number is expected to rise as AI usage expands.

Mastercard’s challenge is similar to that of other digital companies. Higher transaction volume usually leads to greater computing needs. This can raise emissions unless we improve efficiency.

To manage this, the company is focusing on renewable energy procurement, hardware consolidation, and more efficient software systems.

Carbon-Aware Technology Becomes Core to Operations

Mastercard is integrating sustainability directly into its technology systems rather than treating it as a separate reporting function. Since 2023, the company has developed a patent-pending system that assigns a Sustainability Score to its technology infrastructure. This system measures environmental impact in real time.

It tracks factors such as:

  • Energy use in kilowatt-hours,
  • Regional carbon intensity of electricity,
  • Server utilization rates,
  • Hardware lifecycle efficiency, and
  • Data processing location.

This allows engineers to design systems with lower carbon impact.

The company also uses carbon-aware software design. This means computing workloads can be adjusted to reduce energy use when carbon intensity is high in certain regions.

This approach reflects a wider trend in the technology and financial sectors. More companies are now including carbon tracking in their main infrastructure choices. They no longer see it just as a reporting task.

Powering Payments: Mastercard’s Net-Zero Playbook

Mastercard has committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2040, covering Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions across its value chain. The target is aligned with science-based climate pathways and includes operations, suppliers, and technology infrastructure.

To achieve this, the company is focusing on four main areas.

  • Increasing renewable energy use in operations

Mastercard already powers its global operations with 100% renewable electricity. This covers offices and data centers in multiple regions.

The company has also achieved a 46% reduction in total Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions compared to its 2016 baseline. It continues to use renewable energy purchasing to maintain this progress.

In 2024, Mastercard procured over 112,000 MWh of renewable electricity, supporting lower emissions from its global operations.

  • Improving energy efficiency in data centers

Data centers account for about 60% of Mastercard’s Scope 1 and 2 emissions. To reduce this, Mastercard is upgrading servers, cutting unused computing capacity, and improving workload efficiency. It also uses real-time monitoring to reduce energy waste.

These improvements helped keep operational emissions stable in 2024, even as computing demand increased. Efficiency gains combined with renewable energy use supported this outcome.

  • Working with suppliers to reduce emissions

Around 75%–76% of Mastercard’s total emissions come from its value chain. This includes cloud providers, technology partners, and hardware suppliers.

To address this, Mastercard works with suppliers to set emissions targets and improve reporting. More than 70% of its suppliers now have their own climate reduction goals.

  • Upgrading and consolidating hardware systems

Mastercard is reducing emissions by improving its hardware systems. It decommissions unused servers, consolidates infrastructure, and shifts to more efficient cloud platforms.

Technology goods and services account for about one-third of Scope 3 emissions. By reducing unnecessary hardware and extending equipment life, Mastercard lowers both energy use and manufacturing-related emissions while maintaining system performance.

Renewable energy procurement is central to its strategy. It’s crucial for powering data centers, as they account for most of their operational emissions.

Mastercard works with suppliers because a large part of emissions comes from the value chain. This includes technology manufacturing and cloud services. By 2025, the company exceeded several short-term climate goals. This shows early progress on its long-term net-zero path.

mastercard emissions vs growth

ESG Pressure Hits Fintech: The New Rules of Digital Finance

Mastercard’s results come during a period of rising ESG pressure across the financial sector. Banks, payment networks, and fintech companies must now disclose emissions. This is especially true for Scope 3 emissions, which cover supply chain and digital infrastructure impacts.

Several global trends are shaping the industry:

  • Growing regulatory focus on climate disclosure,
  • Rising investor demand for ESG transparency,
  • Expansion of digital payments and cloud computing, and
  • Increased energy use from AI and data processing.

Data centers are becoming a major focus area because they link financial services to energy consumption. In Mastercard’s case, they are the largest source of operational emissions.

At the same time, financial institutions are expected to align with net-zero targets between 2040 and 2050. This depends on regional regulations and climate frameworks. Mastercard’s early progress places it ahead of many peers in meeting short-term emissions goals.

Decoupling Growth From Emissions

One of the most important signals from Mastercard’s 2025 results is the separation of business growth from emissions.

The company achieved 16% revenue growth while reducing total emissions by 1% year-on-year. This marks a continued pattern of emissions decline alongside business expansion.

Mastercard attributes this to improved system efficiency, renewable energy use, and better infrastructure management. In simple terms, the company is processing more transactions without a matching rise in emissions.

This trend is important because digital payment systems normally scale with computing demand. Without efficiency gains, emissions would typically rise with business growth.

Looking ahead, demand will continue to grow. Global payments revenue is projected to reach around $3.1 trillion by 2028, according to McKinsey & Company, growing at close to 10% annually.

global payments revenue 2028 mckinsey
Source: McKinsey & Company

Global data center electricity demand might double by 2030. This rise is mainly due to AI workloads, says the International Energy Agency. Mastercard’s results show that tech upgrades can lower the carbon impact of digital finance. This is true even as global usage rises.

The Takeaway: Fintech’s Proof That Growth and Emissions Can Split

Mastercard’s 2025 sustainability performance shows measurable progress toward its net-zero goal. At the same time, major challenges remain. Data centers continue to be the largest emissions source, and global digital activity is still expanding rapidly due to AI and cloud computing.

Mastercard’s approach shows how financial technology companies are adapting. Sustainability is no longer a separate goal. It is becoming part of how digital systems are designed and operated.

The next test will be whether these efficiency gains can continue to outpace the rapid growth of global digital payments and AI-driven financial systems.

The post Mastercard Beats 2025 Emissions Targets as Revenue Rises 16%, Breaking the Growth vs Carbon Trade-Off appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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China’s $8.4B Orbital Data Center Push Sets Up Space-Based AI Showdown With SpaceX

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China’s $8.4B Orbital Data Center Push Sets Up Space-Based AI Showdown With SpaceX

China is backing a Beijing-based startup called Orbital Chenguang with about 57.7 billion yuan ($8.4 billion) in credit lines to build space-based data centers, according to media reports. The funding comes from major state-linked banks and signals one of the largest known investments in orbital computing infrastructure.

The move highlights a growing global race to build computing systems in space. It also puts China in direct competition with companies like SpaceX, which is exploring space-based data infrastructure, too.

Orbital Chenguang Builds State-Backed Space Computing System

Orbital Chenguang is a startup in Beijing supported by the Beijing Astro-future Institute of Space Technology. This institute works with the city’s science and technology authorities.

The company has received credit line support from major Chinese financial institutions, including:

  • Bank of China,
  • Agricultural Bank of China,
  • Bank of Communications,
  • Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and
  • CITIC Bank.

These are credit lines, not fully deployed cash. But the scale shows strong institutional backing.

The project is part of a wider national strategy focused on commercial space, AI infrastructure, and advanced computing systems.

China’s state space contractor, CASC (China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation), has shared plans under its 15th Five-Year Plan. These include ideas for large-scale space computing systems, aiming for gigawatt power.

Space Data Center Plan Targets 2035 Gigawatt Capacity

According to Chinese media reports, Orbital Chenguang plans to build a constellation in a dawn-dusk sun-synchronous orbit at 700–800 km altitude. The long-term target is a gigawatt-scale space data center by 2035.

The development plan is divided into phases:

  • 2025–2027: Launch early computing satellites and solve technical barriers.
  • 2028–2030: Link space-based systems with Earth-based data centers.
  • 2030–2035: Scale toward large orbital computing infrastructure.

The design relies on continuous solar energy and natural cooling in space. These features could reduce reliance on land-based power grids and cooling systems.

China has proposed two satellite constellations to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). These plans include a total of 96,714 satellites. This shows China’s long-term goals for space infrastructure and spectrum control.

The AI Energy Crunch Pushing Computing Into Orbit

The push into orbital data centers is closely linked to rising AI demand. Global data centers consumed about 415–460 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2024, equal to roughly 1.5%–2% of global power use. This figure is rising quickly due to AI workloads.

Some industry projections show demand could exceed 1,000 TWh by 2026, nearly equal to Japan’s total electricity consumption.

data center power demand AI 2030 Goldman

AI systems require massive computing power, which increases energy use and cooling needs. In many regions, electricity supply—not hardware—is now the main constraint on AI expansion.

China’s strategy aims to address this by moving part of the computing load into space, where solar energy is more stable and continuous.

Carbon Impact: Earth vs Space Computing Trade-Off

Data centers already create a large carbon footprint. In 2024, they emitted about 182 million tonnes of CO₂, based on global electricity use of roughly 460 TWh and an average carbon intensity of 396 grams of CO₂ per kWh. This is according to the International Energy Agency report, as shown in the chart below.

global data centers emissions 2035 IEA
Source: IEA

Future projections show even faster growth. The sector could generate up to 2.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions by 2030, driven by AI expansion. This is where orbital systems come in. They aim to reduce emissions during operation by using:

  • Continuous solar energy,
  • Passive cooling in vacuum conditions, and
  • Reduced dependence on fossil-fuel grids.

However, space systems also introduce new emissions. Rocket launches used about 63,000 tonnes of propellant in 2022, producing CO₂ and atmospheric pollutants. Lifecycle studies suggest that over 70% of emissions from space systems typically come from manufacturing and launch activities.

In addition, hardware in orbit often has a lifespan of only 5–6 years, which increases replacement cycles and launch frequency. This creates a key trade-off:

  • Lower operational emissions in space, and
  • Higher lifecycle emissions from launches and manufacturing.

Research suggests that, in some scenarios, orbital computing could produce up to 10 times higher total carbon emissions than terrestrial systems when full lifecycle impacts are included.

Orbital data center infographic. Environmental impact of orbital and terrestrial data centers

China’s Expanding Space-Tech Ecosystem

Orbital Chenguang is not operating alone. Several Chinese companies are working on similar in-orbit computing systems, including ADA Space, Zhejiang Lab, Shanghai Bailing Aerospace, and Zhongke Tiansuan.

These firms are developing satellite-based computing and AI processing systems. This shows that orbital computing is not a single project. It is part of a broader national push across government, industry, and research institutions.

China’s space strategy combines commercial space growth with national technology planning. It aims to build integrated systems that connect satellites, cloud computing, and terrestrial networks.

The Space-AI Arms Race: China vs SpaceX vs Google

China is not alone in exploring space-based computing. Companies in the United States are also developing orbital data infrastructure concepts. These include early-stage research and private sector projects by firms such as SpaceX and Google.

SpaceX is building one of the largest satellite networks through its Starlink constellation, with thousands of satellites already in orbit. While its main goal is global internet coverage, the network also creates a foundation for future edge computing in space. The company’s reusable rockets, including Starship, are designed to lower launch costs, which is a key barrier to scaling orbital data infrastructure.

Google, through its cloud division, has been investing in space data and satellite analytics. It partners with Earth observation firms to process large volumes of data using cloud-based AI tools. This work could extend to hybrid systems where data is processed closer to where it is generated, including in orbit.

Other players are also entering the field. Amazon is developing Project Kuiper, a satellite internet network that could support future space-based computing layers. Microsoft has launched Azure Space, which connects satellites directly to cloud computing services and supports real-time data processing.

Government agencies are also involved. NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense are funding research into orbital computing, edge processing, and secure data transmission in space. These efforts aim to reduce latency, improve data security, and enable faster decision-making for both civilian and defense applications.

Together, these developments show that space-based computing is moving beyond theory. While still early-stage, both public and private sector efforts are building the foundation for future data centers and processing systems in orbit.

However, these systems face major challenges:

  • High launch costs,
  • Heat and thermal control issues,
  • Limited data transmission bandwidth, and
  • Hardware durability in space.

Despite these challenges, interest is growing because AI demand is rising faster than Earth-based infrastructure can scale. The competition is now moving toward who can solve energy and computing limits first—on Earth or in space.

Market Outlook: AI, Energy, and Space Infrastructure Converge

The global data center industry is entering a period of rapid expansion. Electricity demand from data centers could double by 2030, driven mainly by AI workloads and cloud computing growth. Power supply is becoming a limiting factor in many regions.

At the same time, the global space economy is expanding into a multi-hundred-billion-dollar industry, supported by satellites, communications, and emerging technologies like orbital computing.

  • Orbital data centers sit at the intersection of three major trends: rapid AI growth, rising energy constraints, and expansion of space infrastructure. 

China’s $8.4 billion credit-backed push through Orbital Chenguang signals confidence in this convergence. However, key barriers remain, such as high cost of launches, engineering complexity, short satellite lifespans (5-6 years), and regulatory uncertainty in orbital systems.

Because of these limits, orbital data centers are unlikely to replace Earth-based systems in the near term. Instead, they may form a hybrid system where some workloads move to space while most remain on Earth.

Space Is Becoming the Next Data Center Frontier

China’s investment in Orbital Chenguang marks one of the most significant moves yet in the emerging field of space-based computing. Backed by major Chinese banks, municipal science institutions, and national space contractors like CASC, the project shows how seriously China is treating orbital infrastructure.

The strategy connects AI growth, energy demand, and climate pressures into a single long-term vision. But the trade-offs are complex. Orbital data centers may reduce operational emissions, but they also introduce high lifecycle carbon costs and major technical challenges.

The global race is now underway. With companies like SpaceX, Google, and Chinese tech firms exploring similar ideas, space is becoming a new frontier for digital infrastructure. The outcome will depend on whether orbital systems can scale efficiently—and whether their carbon benefits can outweigh the emissions cost of building them.

The post China’s $8.4B Orbital Data Center Push Sets Up Space-Based AI Showdown With SpaceX appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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