Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing how industries operate, and it could also help fight climate change. A major study published in npj Climate Action finds that AI could cut global carbon emissions by up to 5.4 billion tonnes per year by 2035. That’s more than the total annual emissions of the United States.
The study is led by researchers from the London School of Economics and Systemiq. The report entitled “Green and intelligent: the role of AI in the climate transition” shows that applying AI to three key sectors—food, electricity, and mobility—can unlock enormous environmental benefits.
AI’s strength lies in its ability to process large datasets, identify patterns, and optimize systems in real time. When used strategically, this can translate into greater efficiency, lower energy use, and less waste. These improvements are essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow climate change.
A Sector-by-Sector Breakdown: Where AI Delivers the Most Cuts
The study highlights three areas where AI can drive the biggest reductions in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions:
- Food: 0.9–1.6 billion tonnes CO₂e per year (up to 3.0 GtCO₂e in a highly ambitious scenario)
- Energy (Electricity): Up to 1.8 billion tonnes CO₂e per year
- Mobility (Transport): 0.5–0.6 billion tonnes CO₂e per year
These figures are significant. Together, they represent 8% to 10% of total global greenhouse gas emissions. That’s a substantial contribution to international efforts like the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C.
In the food and agriculture sector, AI can improve productivity while reducing environmental harm. Smart sensors and machine learning tools help farmers use just the right amount of water, fertilizer, and pesticides.
AI also enables precision farming, reducing waste and cutting emissions from overuse of chemicals. It can predict crop yields and improve food distribution. This helps cut spoilage and lowers emissions from storage and transport.
AI helps the clean energy transition in electricity generation. It manages supply and demand more efficiently. Moreover, AI algorithms can predict electricity use. They also enhance energy storage and optimize the integration of solar and wind power.
Additionally, AI helps stabilize power grids and boosts low-carbon energy use. This cuts down the need for dirty backup systems that run on coal or gas.
For mobility and transport, AI improves logistics, reduces fuel use, and supports the development of cleaner vehicles. Fleet managers use AI to plan efficient routes, avoid traffic, and reduce idle times. AI is key to making self-driving cars. These vehicles could boost road safety and cut emissions even more.
The chart below shows the projected global emissions by 2035, with AI adoption differing from business-as-usual and ambitious reduction scenarios for the three sectors identified.
AI Carbon Reductions in Other Sectors
AI is also critical in industries like cement and steel, where emissions are hard to abate. Machine learning helps monitor production processes and reduce energy waste. AI also enables real-time emissions tracking and reporting, helping companies stay accountable to their climate goals.
A recent McKinsey report shows that AI technologies can help businesses lower CO₂ emissions by up to 10%. They can also reduce energy costs by 10–20%. Additionally, buildings could save 20% on energy, while transportation systems might save 15%.
Complementing this, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that adopting existing AI applications across end-use sectors like energy, industry, transport, and buildings could reduce emissions by about 1.4 gigatons of CO₂ annually.
Together, these findings underscore AI’s significant role in accelerating decarbonization across multiple sectors. And the good news? These AI applications already exist and are being tested or deployed by companies around the world. What’s needed now is rapid scaling.
- SEE MORE: The Top 6 AI-Powered Companies and How They Transform Climate, Nature, and Carbon Solutions
The Role of Policy and Industry Action
The study authors say AI’s benefits will only happen with strong guidance from policymakers and investors. Without supportive rules and incentives, AI might raise emissions. It could increase demand for power-hungry data centers. Also, it may automate processes that lead to more production and consumption.
To avoid these risks, the researchers call for:
- Public and private investment in climate-focused AI tools
- Open access to high-quality environmental datasets
- Standards and guardrails to guide responsible use
They also warn against “AI rebound effects,” where efficiency gains are offset by increased consumption. For example, making vehicles more fuel-efficient might encourage people to drive more. That’s why careful planning and strong governance are essential.
Another key recommendation: include developing countries in the AI transition. These regions often face the greatest climate risks but have limited access to technology. Thus, international partnerships and funding will be needed to ensure AI’s climate benefits are shared globally.
AI as a Climate Enabler, Not Just a Tool
AI can also strengthen other climate solutions. For example:
- Carbon removal. AI helps track carbon storage in forests and soils, improving the quality of carbon credits and offset programs.
- Resilience planning. AI models assist cities in getting ready for floods, heat waves, and other climate effects. They do this by simulating different scenarios and testing response plans.
- Energy optimization. AI manages heating, cooling, and lighting in buildings. It cuts energy waste while keeping comfort high.
These applications make climate solutions smarter, cheaper, and faster. AI doesn’t just reduce emissions—it helps manage the clean energy transition more effectively.
Governments are starting to notice. The European Union and Canada have launched initiatives to support green AI. Companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are also building AI tools for climate forecasting, carbon tracking, and energy management.
Tech vs. Time: Can AI Help Us Beat the Climate Clock?
The new study offers compelling evidence that AI could play a leading role in slashing global carbon emissions. The estimated 3.2 to 5.4 billion tonnes of CO₂e reductions by 2035 are not just theoretical; they’re within reach if the right steps are taken.
These findings come at a time when many countries are off track in meeting their 2030 and 2050 climate goals. AI may help close that gap by offering fast, reliable, and affordable emissions cuts in important sectors.
Private companies, too, are under pressure to deliver on net-zero commitments. For them, AI can provide tools to track emissions, meet regulatory standards, and optimize energy use. Investors are also watching closely, with many ESG (environmental, social, governance) funds now looking for AI-powered climate solutions.
The bottom line? AI can become one of the world’s most powerful climate allies. But its impact depends on how it’s used, who controls it, and whether its benefits are shared widely. By focusing on climate-smart applications in food, electricity, and transport, AI can help build a cleaner, more resilient future.
The post Study Shows How AI Can Cut Over 5 Billion Tons of Carbon Emissions in 3 Key Sectors appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Most businesses that decide to act on their net-zero targets reach the same point of friction. Buying carbon credits has meant tracking down brokers, sitting through sales calls, and requesting a quote just to learn a price, sometimes with limited proof of what you are buying.
The earnings calls that quietly reframed climate from sustainability question to operating risk.
Three earnings calls in the last 18 months tell the story without any help from a press release.
Hershey, May 2024: cocoa price exposure compresses margin, and the company attributes part of the cost shock to West African weather. Olam, July 2024: coffee climate exposure quantified in the annual report. JBS, January 2025: supply chain climate disclosures expanded materially in response to investor pressure and regulatory expectation. None of these companies issued the announcement as climate news. They issued it as financial news. The climate-linked supply chain risk did not arrive with a sustainability framing; it arrived as a P&L line.
You are probably reading this article because you suspect the same thing is happening to your business. This piece walks through what is showing up on which earnings calls, how procurement and finance leaders are quantifying the exposure, and what serious corporates are doing about it before the regulator asks.
Where climate risk has already appeared in earnings
The pattern is consistent across resource-intensive sectors. A weather event compresses supply, the price spikes, the cost flows through the income statement, and the analyst on the call asks whether the event is anomalous or structural. Increasingly, the honest answer is the second one.
Cocoa is the cleanest example. The 2023 to 2024 West African harvest fell sharply on the back of erratic rainfall and disease. Cocoa futures more than tripled. Companies with concentrated West African sourcing absorbed the cost; companies with diversified sourcing absorbed less. The exposure was not climate as ESG topic. It was climate as cost of goods.
Coffee follows the same pattern. Brazilian and Vietnamese harvests have moved on weather more sharply across the last several seasons. Roasters with long-tenor supplier relationships and origin diversification have managed the volatility; roasters with spot-market exposure have not. Wheat, sugar, palm oil, beef: the same dynamic in different commodities, a pattern the IPCC AR6 Working Group II report projects will intensify across agricultural systems through mid-century.
What this means: climate risk is no longer a footnote in the 10-K. It is a line item the CFO has to explain on the call.
The three commodity exposures that hit margin first
For most companies with material Scope 3 exposure, three exposures dominate the near-term P&L risk.
- Concentrated single-origin sourcing in a climate-vulnerable region. If your tier-one supply for any material commodity sits in one geography, you have a concentration risk that climate amplifies. Diversification across origins is the obvious hedge, but it takes years to build and requires relationships you cannot acquire by tender.
- Supplier financial fragility under climate stress. Smallholder farmers, who supply a large share of the global cocoa, coffee, and palm oil market, do not carry the balance sheets to absorb yield shocks. When yields collapse, they exit. When they exit, your supply base shrinks, and the surviving suppliers raise prices. The risk is structural, not cyclical.
- Logistics and storage exposure to extreme weather. Hurricane disruptions to Gulf shipping, drought-driven Panama Canal restrictions, flooding in European inland waterways: each of these has moved input costs in the last three years, a pattern documented in Munich Re’s natural catastrophe data. The exposure shows up as a one-quarter event in the financial press but accumulates over time on the cost line.
TCFD and ISSB disclosure changes
The disclosure architecture has now caught up with the risk. The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, whose recommendations are now embedded in the ISSB’s IFRS S2 climate standard, requires companies to disclose climate-related risks across physical and transition categories, with quantification where possible.
For physical risk specifically (the climate-linked supply chain risk you are reading about), the disclosure must address both acute exposures (extreme weather events) and chronic exposures (gradual changes in temperature, precipitation, and growing seasons). The disclosure must address the time horizon over which the risk is material, the parts of the value chain exposed, and the financial impact under different scenarios.
The CSRD imposes similar requirements under European law, with double materiality (both financial and impact materiality) embedded in the assessment. The practical effect: your auditors and your investor relations team now need a defensible answer to the climate-linked supply chain risk question, and the answer needs to be quantified.
What procurement and finance can do now
Three actions matter near-term.
Map your exposure. Most companies do not have a clear view of which tier-one and tier-two suppliers sit in which climate-vulnerable geographies. Without the map, you cannot quantify the risk, and without the quantification, you cannot disclose it credibly. The map is the foundation, and World Resources Institute climate risk research provides useful public tooling to start.
Diversify and deepen, in that order. Diversification across origins reduces concentration risk, but the deeper move is to invest in the resilience of the suppliers you already have. Regenerative practices, agroforestry, soil health interventions: these reduce yield volatility under climate stress and protect your input cost trajectory.
Embed the climate spend inside procurement, not outside it. Treating climate risk as a sustainability cost line subordinates it to the ESG budget. Treating it as a procurement and resilience investment puts it in the budget that matters, which is the cost-of-goods budget that the CFO defends quarterly.
Nature-based supply chain investments are the asset class designed for exactly this purpose. They sit inside the value chain, they reduce climate-linked supply risk, they generate verifiable Scope 3 reductions, and they produce the documentation an auditor and a regulator can both test.
If you are quantifying climate-linked supply chain risk in advance of the next earnings cycle or the next disclosure period, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you map your exposure and structure a Dual-Value Model response that addresses reduction, resilience, and disclosure-readiness in a single program. Schedule a consultation.
More and more small and medium-sized businesses are hearing the same question from their larger customers: What is your carbon footprint? That question now travels down entire supply chains, and it arrives next to tender requirements, certification criteria, and rising customer expectations.
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