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Siemens Gamesa, Vestas, Ørsted Updates: Finances, Fallen Rotors, and Offshore Wind Outlook

This week we analyze recent news from Siemens Gamesa, Vestas, and Ørsted, including financial struggles, layoffs, and plans to regain profitability. The episode also covers offshore wind manufacturing expansion in the U.S., a fallen wind turbine rotor in Norway, and the need for better data sharing among wind farm owners and operators. Plus, if you’re attending ACP O&M in San Diego, sign up for the IntelStor event!

Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

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Joel Saxum: So Allen is in Denmark at the Leading Edge Symposium DTU in Roskilde there with a lot of really smart people talking about leading edge erosion issues. What are the newest protections out there? What kind of projects going on in the world? From our side of view, how does aerodynamics leading edge roughness affect lightning?

A lot of really cool things going on there. Of course, DTU is always doing great work. But that’s where Allen is today. So this week I’m going to try to be my best Allen. I’m Joel Saxum, the chief commercial officer of Weather Guard Lightning Tech. And I’m here with international renewables expert, Rosemary Barnes.

Plus, wind energy economics and data guru Phil Totaro from IntelStor. This is the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast.

So speaking about offshore wind in the United States and how the IRA bill is interacting and if it’s kicking off manufacturing facilities or what’s actually happening on the ground, today there was an announcement by US Forged Rings Inc. It’d be the USA’s only integrated one stop shop manufacturer for offshore wind towers and steel forging.

What they released today in an article was, or in a press release was, the fact that they’re going to have two factories up and running on the east coast. One by 2026, one by 2027. And they’re going to work together. To build these large scale steel infrastructure that we need for offshore wind in the U.

S. So one of one of the factories is going to output towers. They’re saying a hundred towers per year with a 35 foot diameter on them and the other factory that’s going to be completing 2027. It’s for forging and ring rolling, and they can do up to 40 feet in diameter. So what this will do is be able to help the U.

S. market create its own transition pieces, its own, bearing races, its own caps for the towers and whatnot. But Phil, what are the larger reaching implications of this press release?

Philip Totaro: It’s extremely good for the offshore wind market where, a company is looking to obviously take advantage of the 45x manufacturing tax credits.

What’s interesting about this, though, is that in addition to this serving the offshore wind market, assuming that this factory exists, we don’t actually have a lot of particularly forging capabilities in the United States for anything above, let’s say, like a megawatt onshore turbine. We usually have to import a lot of that stuff from Europe.

Even Asia doesn’t have the, a full capability to do, enormous 6, onshore turbines. A lot of that they’re actually getting from Europe as well. Surprisingly, to, to most. The fact that this, these factories will exist, and, the tower factory with, it’s going to start off at 100 units a year and they said that it’s going to potentially expand to 200 units a year.

We’ll see. Maybe some of those units will actually be dedicated to to some onshore wind turbines as well. If we can get the offshore market really going, then they’ll be fully utilized in building offshore towers and transition pieces. But there is that possibility that we can leverage them for an expansion in the onshore market too.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, some interesting stuff here in their press release, they also are talking about being able to use some of the capabilities that they’ll have for offshore floating turbines, because if you have a spar design or other kind of designs, they need the large tubular pieces, right? This could enable the floating offshore wind in the US.

Of course, we’re looking at that on the West Coast. With the deeper water out there and there is some leases floating around out there on the east coast for further out past what we’ve been talking about lately into deeper water. Also with that forging and ring rolling factory on the other side you’re looking at yaw rings, pitch bearings, main shaft bearings and other large components.

The another thought I have here, Phil or Rosemary for that matter as well. Do you think that the capabilities of this factory could be used for other things than offshore wind, or will it be specifically just offshore wind? Could it be used for other large industrial facilities?

Philip Totaro: I don’t know enough about it to say what else this could be used for, and frankly, why, if we have oil and gas fabrication facilities, why they aren’t Doing something for offshore wind and we’re just like converting something that already exists for oil and gas Maybe they don’t need anything that big.

I don’t but we’ll make use of these factories I’m telling you like whether it’s offshore wind onshore wind, whatever. We’ll make use of these factories.

Joel Saxum: I think the difference there in oil and gas is when you have an oil and gas jacket or Other infrastructure. It’s so specialized That it’s a one off, right?

They’re not building a factory to make these things. They’re either ordering that one piece or that two pieces or whatever it is from somewhere that can already complete it, or they’re piecing them together. I’ve seen a lot of jacket foundations that are not rolled steel. They’re pieces. That are all welded together, right?

So they build a facility and do that custom fab. Not the case when you’re going to scale.

Rosemary Barnes: I think that the unique thing about this facility is the size, like the large diameters that they can do, which means I can do wind turbine towers. And not familiar with absolutely every single thing that’s made out of steel, but I don’t think that anything else needs those really large diameters.

Obviously if you’ve got a factory that’s big enough to make really big stuff, it could make smaller stuff if it wanted to, but yeah, that isn’t such a big challenge and there’d be other competitors that are already filling that need. So I’m guessing it’s going to be fairly specialized.

Philip Totaro: Yeah, the only thing I would think of might be pressure vessels for any various number of applications. The only thing is that’s also a specialized. Fabrication capability, so I’m not quite sure if they’d actually be able to, again I think these factories are intended to be offshore wind.

There is obviously a possibility, as I mentioned, of being able to leverage it for larger onshore wind machines as well either for domestic consumption or frankly, even an export market, because when you contemplate. We could be fabricating parts here in the U. S. for export to China, for instance.

That is a possibility. Or even, actually, Australia, because there’s a lot of projects in Australia that are proposing six and seven and eight megawatt turbines. Unless they’re gonna make it a point to, to build their own localized fabrication facilities. Who knows we could be we could be making some parts for them.

Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I think I know that there’s plenty of people that have in mind that is a really good entry point into wind turbine manufacturing. It’s 1 of the easier things and. Australia already makes some towers some parts of towers at least. So it’s, not such a stretch that we would move up to that.

We do have a steel industry. It’s not what it used to be, we’ve got all the iron ore. There’s a lot of work now to move towards processing that into steel in Australia and then. Yeah, it’s already I’m not the only one that’s been saying for a decade or more how crazy it is that we take our iron ore, send that to China, they turn it into steel, and then, whatever else they make from the steel and then send that back to us.

It’s. It’s not good for Australia, keeping the real value from our minerals in Australia, the digging up of the mineral is, like the least valuable part of that whole process, values added all the way along through the manufacturing chain. And yeah, aside from it being economically stupid, it’s also environmentally stupid because, obviously if you send the unrefined steel over, if you’ve got like 50% concentrated iron ore, and when that comes back, you’ve got double the volume that you’ve got to send over there compared to what comes back.

So you can save a lot in shipping and. Yeah, so we are, we should have been doing it from the start, but I think, the whole world was really into globalization and just low costs at any non financial costs. We were prepared to, give up nearly anything if the cost of steel or whatever other material was lower and the whole world’s moving away from that now and slower than I would have liked, but Australia has all the pieces in place to.

Like a wind turbine tower should be the very easiest thing that we should definitely be manufacturing in Australia. And yeah, I am hopeful that we will within a few years.

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Joel Saxum: So news out of Denmark today, guys. Ørsted is suspending its dividend and cutting some jobs as it changes how it addresses offshore markets. So the wind developer says it needs to create a leaner and more efficient company. This is the words from Mads Nipper today. We’ve prioritized projects within our portfolio and are implementing significant changes in our business, including revising our operational model to reduce risks.

We now present a robust business plan with an uncompromising focus on value creation. Plan to install more than double our current installed capacity of renewable energy by 2030. The thing I like here that he said and I haven’t dug completely into it yet is that we are presenting a robust business plan.

This is something that we haven’t heard of some other players in the wind industry. I. e. Siemens, Gamesa, and whatever that they’re doing, what is their plan? Ørsted has one now. Phil, what does this mean for Ørsted going forward?

Philip Totaro: As they indicated, they’re getting rid of some of the fluff, let’s call it.

Which is going to include some of the Power to X projects that they had on the menu. Some of the hydrogen production, et cetera, et cetera, and focusing on core business, focusing also on core markets. And on. Doubling down in their their view on, offshore wind again, core European markets but also Taiwan and they’re obviously going to continue what they’ve been trying to do in the U.

S. South Fork is still, on on track for coming online this year. And we’ll see what happens with some of the other projects that they’re still pursuing and involved with. They may end up still divesting some of the the projects here in the U. S. Eversource also wants out if both project developers are looking to get out, then that’s potentially an opportunity for someone else to get in.

I think again, as we’ve talked about, it is a good thing that they present a a business plan that provides investors and shareholders more confidence, because that’s the key as far as what was lacking, and it’s we do liken it to other companies like Siemens Gamesa, Ørsted just came out a few months ago and said we have a problem.

But they didn’t really say we have a solution, too, and here’s what it is. It’s just, All they did was diagnose the fact that they have issues. And now they’ve at least put pen to paper and said, Alright, we, here’s how we’re gonna dig ourselves out of the hole. It’s unfortunate that not only the 800 jobs that they’re going to be cutting, but their long time chairman also stepped down as a result.

And, as we’ve also talked about, one would presume that Mad Snipper’s job also isn’t safe, but they’re at least leaving him in his current position until this can, this kind of transition can occur, and then they’ll find someone else to champion the new era of Ørsted.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, interesting here.

They’re the market that some of their plan. Okay. Phil, you mentioned it. They’re cut 800 jobs. They have about 9, 000 people globally. So that means that just under 10 percent of their staff is looking for pink slips. That’s not the best way to be, but. It’s reality. And the markets that they’re going to withdraw from our Norway, Spain and Portugal.

Now, Norway, Spain and Portugal for the most, a lot of that is floating to my knowledge. They’re not as advanced as the projects that they operate right now in the North Sea. But it is interesting as well. The with the chairman stepping down. So Thomas Tuna Anderson has been there for 10 years.

He’s exiting that role. And also we had, this past fall, Daniel Lerup, the chief operating officer. Or the finance chief and then Richard Hunter, the chief operating officer left as well. So there has been, we have talked about how long will Mads Nipper keep his job. But there has been a lot of changes from the board of directors all the way down.

And we’re all hopeful that Ørsted comes out of this thing. A shinier new product because them being healthy is good for the offshore wind energy market as a whole Rosemary, any thoughts on this Ørsted move and them pulling back a little bit, what it means for their future.

Rosemary Barnes: Yeah I think that they had the right idea with their strategy to, get in early with the U S market. A lot of people had that idea and I think that’s why we saw such a, like a feeding frenzy for some of those early auctions. Everybody wanted in, and they got in, but I don’t think people anticipated how I don’t know, wishy washy, is that the right term? The environment in the U. S. was?

Philip Totaro: Yes. Yes, it is.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, it’s perfect.

Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, I think it’s a huge cultural difference between Denmark and the U. S. And I’ve lived in both countries, the U. S. just for one year back in. 20 years ago. So it’s been a while. But Denmark is characterized by just that they’ve got immense trust in, other people and in governments.

I think that they’re like the most trusting country in the world, or at least one of them. Which I think that they might as a, Danish company culturally. They might have been surprised that when you enter into agreements with governments that things don’t, there isn’t a lot of trust going back the other way, so I think that they might’ve been surprised by that relationship and so that the cultural clash might’ve been more than what they’re expecting. But I do still think that it’s the right move, but just that it was too soon. The U. S. isn’t actually ready for all of these European companies to come in and ramp up offshore wind really fast in the U.

S. We all wish that it was true and I wouldn’t have predicted these problems a couple of years ago, but here we are. But that said, I do like the company. It’s just such a great story of a company that went from being an oil and gas company that was literally in their name and now they’re a renewable energy company.

I don’t know if there’s any others in the world that have actually managed to do that. Like I am rooting for them, for the company. I actually, I have a note I sent a reminder in my calendar to buy some Austered stocks once this kind of settled down because it fell so far. And I don’t really believe that there’s anything wrong, anything much has changed with the fundamentals of the company.

I still haven’t done that yet. And just mostly out of forgetfulness, but it’s nice to say that they feel a little bit more because now I can get an extra couple of percent. Since they’re lower don’t take that as stock advice. If you looked at the, returns that I make in my portfolio, then you would certainly not come to me for stock advice.

But yeah, the size of the layoffs was interesting. What is it like nearly 10 percent of their workforce. And I will say. Denmark is brutal, absolutely brutal for stuff like that. People might have the wrong idea that, Denmark is Scandinavia, everybody’s warm and fuzzy. And you might have heard like Swedish people tell you how it’s impossible to fire anyone as culturally similar as Denmark is to Sweden.

It is just absolutely not like that in the workforce. They they call their system. Flex security, I think, like flexible security. The flexibility is just the ability to ruthlessly just slash their workforce by 10 percent for, they don’t have to give that much of a reason or be that generous even in their payout to the staff that they let go of.

But the security is that for Danish people, it’s quite it’s quite secure in the amount of unemployment money that you’ll get for quite a long time while you’re looking for work, as long as you I can’t remember the exact setup. I think you have to be a member of a union or something similar to it, some kind of insurance to get that.

But I will say as a foreigner it’s, there’s no, no security for you there as a foreigner. So all the foreigners that the international workers that got laid off, that’s yeah, that is just as brutal as it sounds. So yeah it, it’s good for the company though, that they can make a big change when they need to better that than that they, limp along for the next decade, trying to scrimp and scrape enough to recover, this way, hopefully they can.

Get it all done in one go and then move forward with the stuff that’s going to be profitable in the near term and have the strength there to get back into the U. S. When the country is ready for it.

Joel Saxum: Rosemary, I don’t want to make you feel bad about your delay in the stock price, but back in the fall, not too long ago, a couple, two, three months ago, when they initially, Hey, we announced these write downs and stuff, their stock dropped to about.

11 and 80 cents us. And it’s already back up to 18.

Rosemary Barnes: There you go. So this is why you shouldn’t trust me for investment advice. I’ve missed the boat. I’m also, I’m very, I’m lazy as well with my investing. I. I do it when it occurs to me. And yeah, I’m definitely not someone that’s looking up stock prices every day and making a lot of trades.

I buy something and then I hold it for, as long as I can.

Joel Saxum: So guys sticking in the financial realm of things, you’re gonna talk about Vestas for a little bit. So Vestas’ return to profitability, however, not going to give a dividend either. And for good reason, their dividend would have been minuscule based on what their profitability was, but they are back in black and their discipline is paying off is what they’re stating in their report for the year.

So I’ll give you some numbers here. They made a full year operating profit before special items of 231 million euros. Compared to a loss of 1. 2 billion euros the year before, so that’s a big turnaround. They adjusted the operating profit in fourth quarter, was 191 million euros versus a loss of 514 million euros the year before.

So they’re beating analysts, they’re doing a bit better. The guidance that they’ve given, Investors forecast revenue this year of 16 to 18 billion euros. And the analysts are looking at 17. So they’re right in that same window with what the, they believe will be. So Henrik Andersen, the CEO has stated continued geopolitical volatility, as well as slow permitting and insufficient grid build out across markets are expected to cause.

Uncertainty in 2024. So Vestas is getting back to better health. This is something that we’ve talked about for the last few years was going to take a little while to happen, but it’s great. However, this is the angle I would like to talk at this one with you guys about, do you believe that some of the downfall of what Siemens has going on and them stopping selling their certain platforms right now in the market has led to an increase in Vestas?

Philip Totaro: Modestly, I’ll say, Joel a lot of this getting the Vestas getting back to profitability has more to do with a recovery in turbine prices, because, as you may recall in prior years, even Vestas came out and said that the average price they were seeing. For turbines was about 700, 000 U.

S. per megawatt. And that’s taking into account, markets where you’re selling turbines for a million a megawatt, but also markets where you’re selling for 600, And so now the average price, according to our own numbers at Intel Store, we’re seeing much higher turbine sale prices for projects that were closed last year, including, a lot of the 18 gigawatts order book that they announced last year.

But they’re quoting much higher now they’re around 900, 000 a megawatt megawatt, if not a little higher now in terms of the price quotes that they’re offering at this point for projects which presumably would be delivered to in the next two to, to three years.

Yes, the downfall of Siemens Gamesa has allowed Vestas to go gain some market share in markets where, they would have been competing with megawatt platform. The only reason I guess I’m hesitating on it is because I feel like, Vestas would have already been leading that.

Those markets anyway because while everybody still thinks that Siemens Gamesa makes a solid product even prior to the quality issues it just wasn’t always the favored turban and I don’t know if that comes down to perception of performance, perception of bankability. The service offerings that, or the quality of the service offering that’s received by an asset owner and operator.

Yeah, there’s there, again good news for Vestas in terms of getting back to profitability. It seems like most of the cost increase that they’ve been able to incur. Or that they’ve had to incur as a result of commodities and raw material costs going up has been passed on to customers i.

e. project developers. That’s good. But again, even with them not issuing a dividend, I think it’s fine from the standpoint of the shareholders in the company who will anticipate getting back to a higher dividend once that. Can presumably occur later on this year.

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Joel Saxum: So guys, Siemens Gamesa staff in Aruzury, Navarra will go on strike. We’ve been talking about them possibly going on strike in Spain there for a while. And it sounds like one of the factories has actually pulled the trigger and made it happen.

So what they’re saying is Aruzury is the only center in Navarra that has not adhered to the corporate office agreement with Siemens Gamesa. which is a clear discrimination. It looks like it’s going to affect 62 workers at the plant that they’re going to basically shut it down. So what are the ramifications for this in a plant like that, Rosemary?

Rosemary Barnes: It’s It’s an interruption.

Philip Totaro: This is the sort of thing that, they’ll do this occasionally, Vestas has suffered from temporary factory shutdowns in Spain. GE even had protests, going back a few years, LM factories in Spain as well in the past.

It’s usually like a very modest and temporary interruption. It’s not anything that’s gonna like dramatically impact production per se. But it’s one of those things that it’s, this is like the fourth different location since, Siemens has announced that they’ve had these product quality issues.

This is like the fourth location that said that they’re gonna go on strike and so it’s just culturally, I think they’re just facing a challenge there to provide reassurance, not only to investors and shareholders, but to their own staff to say, look, we’ve got a plan for getting ourselves out of this.

But we all need to pull together to be able to do that. And, obviously these 62 people feel like they’re not being treated equitably.

Joel Saxum: And that so that plan, like we’re saying, Ørsted came out with the, Hey, here’s our plan. Siemens Gamesa has a plan, they’re calling it the Mistral.

Plan to address some of these issues within the inside there. So their, they’ve actually came out now it’s quarterly earnings time, right? We’ve been talking a little stock market, a little finances here. So Siemens energy different, of course, than Siemens Gamesa right now dragging Siemens energy down on their quarterly reports a bit.

It looks if you were to take the quick numbers from Siemens energy. The revenues to 2 billion euros for this past fiscal year but that comes with a loss of or a reported EBITDA, which is basically your loss after everything else you pull out of it, of a negative 900 million.

So pretty tough times to be in the Siemens Comesa finance department. But what is, how does that overall feel affect with Siemens, that if, when you take into consideration Siemens Energy as the parent and Siemens Gamesa looking like this, are they going to have to make some big moves to save this thing financially, Phil?

Philip Totaro: There’s still struggling with a couple of different things at the moment. It sounds like they obviously have their head around what the quality issues are. They haven’t quite effectively communicated that to investors and shareholders because they’re still clamoring for what exactly is the full extent of this?

And management came out even today when they released their numbers. And said, we aren’t expecting anything worse than what we’ve already told you to paraphrase which I guess is good from one perspective, but it’s also unsettling because, people want to either have confidence that you’ve, tied this off and we can move on, or, and get back to selling or it’s something where, oh we were, grossly or disproportionately over predicting what we were going to spend, the 5 billion loss that, that we were going to have, it’s actually not going to be 5 billion.

It’s only going to be 3 or whatever, and it’s oh, my God, that’s great to an extra 2 billion that, that we don’t have to waste on losses. That’s the sort of thing that investors shareholders want to see. And here And they’re still not seeing and hearing that from Siemens Gamesa management and that’s where I think we still have a problem here, they keep trying to provide assurances about the quality issues are, understood and are being dealt with, but again, even from that perspective, I think since the start of this whole thing, Siemens Gamesa has just had A bit of a PR issue with this whole thing.

It’s in, in corporate management, like if you have an, everybody’s going to go through either a product quality issue or some kind of. Business downturn, whatever. But it’s usually, okay, we can see this coming, we have a plan for dealing with it we know, what needs to ha and my point is that before you go out and say anything in public, you’ve dealt with everything that you can possibly deal with internally.

You can’t obviously withhold information, business critical information from shareholders, but you also want to be able to have your arms around what’s happening. And I think in their desire for transparency, and not wanting to be accused of hiding anything, they went forward with, publicly, with a lot of hey, we’ve got an issue here, but there was no road map for okay.

How do you deal with that issue? And then what’s the business strategy moving forward? They’ve just come out and you know been very transparent with the fact that they have an issue and we’re sitting here nine months later You know going on 10 or 11, and it’s you know, we’re still Scratching our heads trying to understand.

Okay, what exactly you know, when can you start selling again? When are you gonna start making money again? There’s it’s You know the things that they’ve said in the past are just unfortunately not convincing. And they’re talking about, oh, we’re going to be back in profitability by 2026.

Not if you’re not selling in 2024. So you best get on top of it. If you’re not already.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, that’s the interesting one, right? Chief executive officer, Christian brush come out. He says we’re going to stick to this prediction that we’re going to break even in 2026. With some of these fixes that we need to do the big spend probably being in 2025.

Which is, it’s such a general vague statement that it, that can’t give anybody a warm fuzzy, but how, however the early shares trading that rose 2. 8% and that adds to 20 percent gains so far this year after they slumped off about 30 percent in value. At the end of last year. So for the, I don’t know, the general investor that’s, they’re still feeling like it’s going to be okay is what it looks like, but I don’t know if from some looking at it as we do from the inside of the industry it’s still on thin ice.

Okay. So shifting gears. Now we’ve been talking about finance for a little bit. We’re going to talk back to O and M and what’s actually going on in the field. So up in Norway, a rotor fell off. Of a Nordic N 1 49 turbine. So this was in, I’m gonna say this wrong, of course, wind Park in Norway. They had an issue with one of the turbines back from the summer back in June.

And since then they corded off the area. They made sure nobody would go in there. They did everything safe there. But as a part of the repair process, they removed the gearbox. So they took some major components out of the inside of the nelle there. And it said, along with the company’s statement says this, along with other special circumstances surrounding the damage and repair work has led to an unusual risk that the rotor falling could, or the rotor falling, failing could fall off the turbine.

And on January 27th, the rotor became loose and fell off the turbine. So the interesting thing here for me is that they knew it could be an issue. They knew it could come off. There did they did some risk analysis and stuff on it, but they didn’t actually do anything about it to remove a major component.

Usually you have to have the gearbox or the gearbox. You have to have a crane there. You also have to have. Or a smaller crane system mobilized to site to even get this thing down. So there had to be something really weird going on with this turbine that they left it in a precarious position without actually just saying, hey, the crane’s here, let’s take the rotor off as well.

What do you heard anything else about this, Phil?

Philip Totaro: It’s a little bit of a strange one because it sounds like they, they needed to reinstall some tooling or other components that was gonna hold everything together, and mitigate some of that risk. But they just didn’t have some of that tooling available, is what they’re saying.

That’s unfortunate because, from that perspective, it’s going to be hard for them to make any kind of a claim, like an insurance claim or whatever, because this sounds like it was entirely the either on the OEM or EPC contractor to not follow a proper procedure, but it’s also a bit distressing because this product platform has had some Teething issues around the world like that.

They also had a rotor issue down in Australia the same model at the more like South wind farm recently. There’s also been a recent report of an issue in for a wind farm in Chile with the same same model, make and model of turbine. And it’s. Maybe this is one of those scenarios where it might be like a Nordex procedure that needs to be re evaluated.

Again, you never want to see a situation like this, but clearly something needs to be done if it’s, not just an isolated incident.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, the interesting, Nordex says They came out right away. This is an isolated incident. There’s no other risk to any other turbines on that wind farm or in the wider fleet.

No worries. And then the asset owner’s yeah, we’re going to do an RCA and figure this out. So there could be some more news that comes out of this rotor falling off of the turbine up in Norway.

Philip Totaro: And it’s also another reason why you need to have asset owners talking to each other and providing information exchange, which is obviously something that we’re trying to do with the.

The data licensing that we’re doing is trying to, shine a light on the fact that there are other asset owners that own the same product that you do, and potentially, they’re, they could also be experiencing issues or potentially operating their asset with the same make and model of product in a better way.

And so that’s the sort of thing that needs to happen within the industry is asset owners have to, and operators have to get. A little more comfortable kind of talking to each other and potentially sharing best practices and information so that things like this don’t reoccur. Because again, Nordex may come out and say, trying to reassure everybody, oh, it’s an isolated incident, but it hasn’t, when you do the root cause, I’m sure it’s going to be You know, something that was specifically different than the issue that they had in, in Australia, more like South or in Chile, as you mentioned, but it’s still, it seeing repeated issues on the same make and model of product.

is never really a good thing. So again, I think from a holistic standpoint, it might need to be a internal investigation into procedures that might need to occur here.

Joel Saxum: Yeah. Phil, we talk about this quite often. The OEMs don’t want to share that much data, which is, trade secrets and whatnot, but the operators can.

Some of them are covered under some contractual agreements to basically NDAs and those kinds of nasty little pieces of paper that can slow industries down. But there is a few working groups. I know there’s a Scandinavian working group that gets together and they talk about, with all the owners and they talk about things.

There is a blades one. I think that’s headed up by some people from Bladina and Burgett Junker that was with RWE. They talk about some blade issues to get together as a little conference. One of the ones I was at a few years ago, the last time they had it in person was the Sandia blade conference.

And there was quite a bit of. Good conversation there about best practices and what’s going on different kind of things. Not at the granular level, right? Not at the, hey, we have this platform with this blade and this and this. It was more like, hey, guys, let’s get together. What are some general things?

That Sandia is going to happen again this year. We saw that and they announced that down in Albuquerque. If you’re into, if you’re into blades and you want to know what’s going on in the. The US wind industry from an academic standpoint, but with a lot of great operators there and engineers, that’s a good conference to go to.

I think last year, last time they had it in person, there was probably 250 to 300 people there. And it was a couple of different tracks all about technical issues. So that one was good. We could see some of these things raised at that conference, but yes fully agree with you, Phil. It would be nice if we had yeah.

I don’t know what we would call it. The wind book, the Facebook of wind, and just everybody could be on there and share all the issues with certain things and maybe a nice forum there. I don’t know. And maybe it’s an IntelStor spinoff. Maybe we’re working on it. So that’s going to be it for the uptime wind energy podcast this week.

If you’re a frequent listener to the podcast, please take a moment and give us a five serving on your podcast platform and subscribe to our weekly newsletter, uptime tech news. And this was a big one. Don’t forget this. If you’re going to be at OMS ACP OMS in San Diego, IntelStor is putting on a perfect little event on Thursday night.

So go to their website or go to their LinkedIn, find the link for that, sign up. It’s going to be free to attend. A lot of good information there. Make sure you hit up that.

Siemens Gamesa, Vestas, Ørsted Updates: Finances, Fallen Rotors, and Offshore Wind Outlook

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WindQuest Advisors on Repowering and Rising O&M Costs

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Weather Guard Lightning Tech

WindQuest Advisors on Repowering and Rising O&M Costs

Dan Fesenmeyer, Managing Partner at WindQuest Advisors, joins to discuss the repowering rush and the FAA permitting stall, rising O&M costs on larger turbines, tariff pass-throughs, and AI data center demand.

Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly newsletter on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on YouTubeLinkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

Welcome to Uptime Spotlight, shining light on wind energy’s brightest innovators. This is the progress powering tomorrow

Allen Hall: Dan, welcome back to the podcast.

Dan Fesenmeyer: It’s great to be here. Great to see you again.

Allen Hall: There is so much happening in your particular area. Your name pops up quite a bit within Weather Guard because, uh, we’re dealing with a lot of operators and- A number of times we’ll ask them, “Have you read your turbine supply agreement?”

“No.” “Have you read your full service agreement?” “No.” “Well, maybe you should do that.” And then we say, “Have you talked to Dan? You should call Dan, ’cause he can help you understand what you have signed.” Mm-hmm. “Oh, that’s probably a good idea.” So now that you’re here, WindQuest Advisors, of course, obviously is your company.

Mm-hmm. And you’re talking to a number of operators. The, the big hurdle at the minute, the nearest short-term hurdle, is repowering. There’s just a lot of [00:01:00] repowering efforts going on- Mm-hmm … trying to get turbines in, start a project. There’s a July 4th deadline and an end of the year deadline. There’s a couple deadlines after that.

What are you seeing right now from operators i- in terms of repowering? What’s the effort happening?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, there was a ton of effort to start physical work. That window’s obviously closing-

Allen Hall: Yes …

Dan Fesenmeyer: very quickly, but it’s still open. Uh, and then once you’re past that window, my understanding is if you get your repower completed by the end of ’27, you didn’t really need to have started physical work.

But I think most folks, start physical work is kind of the insurance piece of it-

Allen Hall: Sure …

Dan Fesenmeyer: if things take longer. Uh, another thing that’s popped up is obviously FAA and other permitting.

Allen Hall: On the permitting side, from the federal’s, uh, standpoint, is that stopped? Or, or are projects able to continue putting turbines in the ground, or what’s the status?

Dan Fesenmeyer: My- From what I’ve seen, I think on the opening session here at [00:02:00] ACP, it was said, they said that there’s, like, 130 projects that are-

Allen Hall: At least …

Dan Fesenmeyer: caught. Yes. And I’m, I’m involved with some of them, and I have a fairly small shop, and there’s just no FAA variances or permits or- They’re not issuing- … mitigation studies.

Everything seems to have stopped.

Allen Hall: So they’re not even reviewing the documentation that’s been submitted by the operators at all?

Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s what it seems, yes. Yeah.

Allen Hall: Is that legal? Uh, uh, usually those federal requirements have a timeline which they’re able to review those permits and get them approved or disapproved them.

You’re s- Right … I think what I’m hearing is, what you’re saying is they’re not even looking at them.

Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s correct. That’s what I’ve heard and seen.

Allen Hall: Okay.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Yeah.

Allen Hall: So what is an operator to do then? How does this, how do they meet some of these deadlines if they can’t get the permit?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I mean, it stalled a lot of projects ’cause of the associated risk with it.

Although I’ve seen some, uh, you know, some repower folks think, “Well, you know, I’m just repair- repowering like for like, or I’m not changing much.” [00:03:00] But if your, if your rotor’s changing or pad location’s changing, you need to update those permits.

Allen Hall: So the, the groups and the operators that are repowering the existing turbines are putting basically the same turbine in the same hole.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well,

Allen Hall: I- Would that be okay?

Dan Fesenmeyer: I would say originally- The initial push on repower was kind of your larger rotors- Sure … new drivetrain, et cetera. Yes. The market seemed to shift more towards, “Hey, let’s do smaller upgrades, component exchanges.”

Allen Hall: Okay.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Getting more towards the minimal investment, so to speak.

Allen Hall: The 80% investment portion.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yes.

Allen Hall: Right.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. And less about, you know, a big new machine head, for example.

Allen Hall: Well, if that gets you through and gets you the, the, uh, tax credit started back up again, which is the whole point- Right … there would be a reason to do that.

Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s right.

Allen Hall: Is there a marketplace then for those components if you’re gonna repower a GE 1.5 machine, which there’s a lot of them- Mm-hmm

in the United States? Are you seeing a big emphasis to go get a new gearbox, [00:04:00] to upgrade the blades- Yeah, and, and- … kind of

Dan Fesenmeyer: thing? Or just do maybe a drivetrain and s- Okay … and leave the rotor or, or-

Allen Hall: So do a gearbox and-

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Gear or just full drivetrain- Or generator … or yeah, s- things like that. And, um- Wow

people are comfortable doing it, and then it’s e- it’s easier, obviously.

Allen Hall: Sure. It’s faster.

Dan Fesenmeyer: And faster, and you don’t necessarily have to touch permits or, yeah.

Allen Hall: And is part of that repowering, I know one of the questions- Mm-hmm … that’s been bandied about quite a bit is, do I have to buy a, a new generator or a new gearbox, or is a refurbished gearbox enough to check the box in terms of upgrading or putting 80% of the value back into the turbine to qualify for those tax credits?

Dan Fesenmeyer: I’m not a tax expert, but I’ve seen people do both.

Allen Hall: Okay. Well, that’ll tell you.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Yeah.

Allen Hall: They’ve obviously talked to- Right … tax advisors about that.

Dan Fesenmeyer: It’s, it’s their level of risk and whether they have outside tax money or whether- … they’re kind of balance sheet or taking it themselves. It’s, it’s- Yeah … more of a risk profile that [00:05:00] everybody’s different on.

Allen Hall: Okay. So that has changed the landscape quite a bit. So now it’s, once this window of opportunity passes by, we’re into brave new world. Mm-hmm. And operating turbines now not really 10 years, operating till end of life, which could be 20, 25 years. Have operators started thinking about that and starting to address some of the, the, especially the contracts around that?

Are they starting to rethink contracts? Are they starting to approach full service agreements differently? Is, is the marketplace changing in the US?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah, I think so. I mean, it, it, depending what you have and what you’re doing, whether you have an existing agreement or you need a new one, and whether it’s a renewal or if you’re doing, let’s say, a drivetrain or new machine head, then there’s usually a service contract that’s going to come with it- Sure

’cause it’s essentially a new machine. Largely a new machine. Largely,

Allen Hall: yeah.

Dan Fesenmeyer: But in the case of a gearbox, right, you’re probably out of your longterm O&M agreement anyway, and, uh, whether you’re… And you probably [00:06:00] have, you don’t have the unplanned coverage anymore. Right. So it’s really, you’re on, you’re kind of on your own risk.

Allen Hall: Okay, so that’s the repower scenario. Mm-hmm. What’s happening new turbine-wise? It seems like the, a lot of the operators are choosing six megawatt, seven megawatt, eight megawatt machines tends to be the, the, the band of opportunity for a lot of operators. What are they working on right now in terms of, uh, TSAs, full service agreements?

What are you seeing out on the landscape US-wise?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I think, um, the TSAs haven’t changed much.

Allen Hall: Okay.

Dan Fesenmeyer: But the- The, the scope and the risk has changed a bit, and the, the OEMs are, you know, holding their cards closer, and it’s hard to get to certain terms that– harder than it used to be.

Allen Hall: So let’s, let’s talk about that for a minute because, uh, there’s been some recent reports speaking to the O&M costs for larger machines.

And so the, the goal was if I went from a [00:07:00] two-megawatt machine to a six-megawatt machine, my O&M cost may be 3x because of the size of the turbine, but ideally they drop. That, uh, the same amount of effort into a larger, m- newer machine, uh, so, uh, my spend wouldn’t go up that much. In, in some places on the planet that I’ve seen feedback about that is that the O&M costs are not 3x, they’re 5x.

So the, the cost to operate the turbine, the six and eight megawatt machines, is higher than it would be proportionally to a two-megawatt machine. I think operators are just trying to start to figure that out. Are the OEMs already knowledgeable of that fact and are s- trying- I, in, in- … to phrase the conversation

I

Dan Fesenmeyer: mean, in the pricing that you get from the OEMs for the full scope agreements, that’s largely in there already.

Allen Hall: Yes.

Dan Fesenmeyer: And I always tell people look at it on a dollar per kWh or dollar per megawatt hour- Ah … basis versus a dollar per turbine, and you- Sure … you’ll see a different number.

Allen Hall: Different calculation done.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Right. But [00:08:00] these, these larger machines, they need larger cranes. They need tall– Yeah, they have taller towers, so a different crane setup, and these components become very, very large. So- Everything gets harder … everything gets d- more difficult. In a basic sense, it’s still oil and gearbox and, you know, tho- tho- Right

that kind of basic service. But when you get into major components and more major maintenance items, then it’s bigger, it can be harder.

Allen Hall: So what does a operator think about that now that they have a little bit of experience? Obviously SunZia, which is a huge project, three and a half gigawatts, uh, a l- several hun- like around 900 turbines, all of them bigger turbines.

It’s a r- for, uh, really the first real taste in America of larger turbines. What are the operators thinking about that, and how are they thinking about what sizes to go with in the future? Or, or, or do they not really have a choice? Like, GE offers six, Vestas offers six, Siemens will offer a six or a seven, [00:09:00] so those are your choices.

They’re– You’re not able to get a two megawatt machine anymore.

Dan Fesenmeyer: I mean, I think, uh, it really comes down to your, your site. Okay. And the larger machines are generally better when you have land constraints or, uh, y- your, your wind resource varies very differently. Think of a ridgeline, and you only have a certain number of pads.

But generally, it’s kind of a pad constraint to push you to the larger, and then your smaller, “smaller,” four and four to four and a half- … megawatt machines, those are still kind of the workhorses of, of the US, in my opinion. Their NCS better, they’re e- they’re lower cost, but you need more pads. So it’s always that trade-off of pads versus space, spacing, uh, and in the end, you just want to get the most AEP out of that site.

Allen Hall: In terms of marketplace, are you seeing prices generally rise dollars per megawatt on [00:10:00] new turbines? ‘Cause the, at least the market indication is that, uh, some of the OEMs have- Real strength in the marketplace today. This is an, an OEM-strong market. They can set- Mm-hmm … prices now. There’s fewer players. China has been eliminated from a lot of lo- locales.

Mm. So they don’t have the competition. That allows them to raise prices. Are you starting to see that flow down in some of the contracts, that, hey, the prices are going up? But, but i- inflation has been a big part of that, too. Well,

Dan Fesenmeyer: yeah, yeah. I mean, there’s… And tariffs, right? The, uh, that, that’s the most interesting one right now, and you have to kind of peel apart what’s my pre-tariff price versus my post, and then what’s the exposure if these tariffs change?

And-

Allen Hall: Is that in the contracts now? Are they able to write contracts that tie them to what the tariffs could be, so your final price really depends on what the tariffs are today or tomorrow?

Dan Fesenmeyer: It’s generally… Well, things have changed and, and things are always fluid, but, [00:11:00] but most recently it’s, “Well, here’s what the tariffs are today,” and when we either bring in the component or when the OEM’s actually paying that tariff, it’s kind of a pass-through

Allen Hall: in essence.

So they’re just handing you the, the bill for the tariff- Yeah … in a sense.

Dan Fesenmeyer: I mean, that- that’s it. And then you can maybe negotiate and do some things around that to share risk a little bit. Mm-hmm. But the basic premise is, you know, there’s transparency on here’s the countries and the tariff rates. If these change, that’s on the buyer.

Allen Hall: So the OEMs are trying to address that in, in some form w- by moving production into the United States. Vestas has a large blade facility in Colorado. They’ve been expanding that over the last several months. They’ve been hiring quite a bit. Uh, GE with LM up in North Dakota and TPI, and all the discussions around TPI at the minute is to really bolster their supply chain.

Uh, they’re trying to get away from the tariffs as much as they can. Are, [00:12:00] are you… You think you’re still gonna see more of that where a Siemens, a GE, a Vestas are gonna be investing more in the United States to avoid that tariff, or is it just impossible?

Dan Fesenmeyer: I, I mean, I think you… What they’ve done, I… It seems to me, I’m not obviously an expert on that, but it- they’ve moved things where they can And to capture- Mm

you know, where you already have capacity. But starting, yeah, building a new plant somewhere, I’m not sure how wise that is in the environment that we’re in.

Allen Hall: Yeah, you saw a lot of plants that were proposed two, three years ago that have, were never built. It does seem like existing plants that were on site that were closed got reopened.

Kansas, Iowa- Mm-hmm … some of those plants got- Mm-hmm … started over again, which is easier to do, which makes a lot of sense. So they’re going after the, the easiest things first still. We’re in that phase of we’re not gonna put a lot of money into the United States however. We’re gonna utilize what we have and maybe grow what we have.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Right. Or, or similarly, you can move from, if you have more of a… All these supply [00:13:00] chains are global at this point.

Allen Hall: Sure.

Dan Fesenmeyer: But if you happen to have a factory in a country with a lower tariff and versus one that’s higher, maybe you move that. You’re not bringing it over to the US, but you’re moving from, let’s say, India to the UK.

Allen Hall: Sure. So, so- Okay, so there, there’s a lot of sh- card shuffling going on- Yeah … to avoid tariffs.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah, and unfortunately then the tariffs change and- … perhaps you have to change back. And, and the other one, uh, that’s out there, obviously the Supreme Court had their ruling on tariffs, so folks are waiting for a Section 232, which is

Allen Hall: still- Untouchable, in a sense?

Uh-

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, it- people are just waiting for what, what will Section 232 be. And it’s been looming for months now.

Allen Hall: Over a year.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yes. So, and, you know, we’re waiting, I guess.

Allen Hall: Is the feeling about that in the industry, uh… I’ll, well, I’ll use a couple of good examples, I think, which, uh, offshore wind being a real stress point United States, and a lot of [00:14:00] the administration’s work to limit offshore development got stopped in the courts.

So anything that was sort of building turbines, putting, had ships out, putting- Mm … uh, monopiles in, they never got stopped. They were delayed a couple of weeks, but they were never really stopped, and it feels like from the outside looking in, is that the courts are not gonna allow some of these, uh, movements by the administration to take effect.

Is the industry in the United States seeing the tariffs and some of the more extreme things that are happening as temporary or, or are they being a little more cautious, saying, “Yes, offshore wind has won a, a number of lawsuits”? But we may not. And th- with the Department of War and 232 and all those events that are happening, what is the outcome there, and w- how are operators thinking about that?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I think we’re in a, in a market where if you have a project that can get built within this window-

Allen Hall: Yeah …

Dan Fesenmeyer: and [00:15:00] you’ve safe har- Like, those projects- And you’re, you’re just in … are desperately moving forward.

Allen Hall: Okay.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Then- ‘

Allen Hall: Cause the trend has been, if you can get it in the ground, they’re gonna let it be developed.

They haven’t been able- Right … to stop anything halfway through. Well,

Dan Fesenmeyer: other, like, the FA is a good example of it-

Allen Hall: Sure …

Dan Fesenmeyer: being stopped. But- Yeah … if you have a project that’s being built, you’re moving forward, and then projects that are outside the window, it’s more of a greenfield development view of, of life.

And seems like some folks are selling p- assets, some folks are buying- A

Allen Hall: lot of that …

Dan Fesenmeyer: development assets.

Allen Hall: Let’s go down that pathway for a minute because I did think- Yeah … that’s a very interesting piece to what’s happening in the United States at the minute. There’s a lot of transactions, big dollar transactions happening for wind- Mm-hmm

on buying, selling portfolios, not just farms. It used to be farms. Right. We’ll sell a farm. Yeah. It was. We’ll swap farms, that kind of thing. Now it’s like, uh, would you like our whole portfolio, wind, solar, battery?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Mm-hmm.

Allen Hall: Is that playing into a lot of the decisions that are [00:16:00]happening on the ground right now, that a, a developer or an operator that has assets is saying, this is a prime time to sell.

There’s a l- I have my tax credits already locked in. We’re golden here- Mm-hmm … for several years. The value is never gonna get higher. I need to get out. I- is that the marketplace today, is-

Dan Fesenmeyer: I think for some. I mean- Yeah … everybody’s got different, uh, motivations, whether they wanna get into wind, get out of wind, greenfield versus repower.

Uh, it, it’s, it’s really their view of the world and their risk profile moving forward, and whether this is a short-term play, long-term. Do we wanna get out of wind? Some people are essentially doing that. Uh, it’s, it’s across the board.

Allen Hall: How’s AI data centers playing into this? What are you hearing?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Oh, I mean, that’s what everybody talks about, AI and data centers, and the demand for power is there.

And- The [00:17:00] issue that, that a lot of us see is wind and solar and battery can all help with that.

Allen Hall: Sure.

Dan Fesenmeyer: And if you want a gas turbine, that’s great, but my former colleagues at GE are gonna tell you it’s 2030- Yes … or later to get one, so what do you do between now and then? And you’re seeing prices go up, which makes these wind farms look pretty good.

Power profile’s nice. Yes. Uh, but you still have hurdles to get, like the FAA, US Fish and Wildlife, all these other hurdles to, you know, that are slowing down wind and solar for that matter too.

Allen Hall: Solar’s been slowed down for sure.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Allen Hall: Does that change, though, with the demand for power in AI data centers?

And it does seem to be a priority in the United States to, to win this AI race. Mm-hmm. Does that loosen some of the reins on renewables to let them go, like just look the other way for a while, while they put a new solar field or wind farm in?

Dan Fesenmeyer: It stands to reason that will happen. Haven’t really seen [00:18:00] it, unfortunately.

But I wo- But I think it will, right? I mean, it, it, it, it almost has to at some point.

Allen Hall: There’s a lot of pressure on Washington DC to let data centers start being developed and, and go.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Mm-hmm.

Allen Hall: But a- as you pointed out, gas turbines are hard to get, and they can’t scale up at the rate at which the demand is.

Right. So your alternative is something really simple, quick and efficient, which would be wind and solar and a little bit of battery. Yeah. I- is that change in the thinking of operators and how they’re thinking about their assets, one, and two, what they’re thinking about in the future? Or are they trying to hook up with an- a- I mean-

a Google, a Facebook, a- Yeah, I

Dan Fesenmeyer: mean, the offtake’s- … SpaceX … there, and that’s generally, you know, it used to be utility PPAs. Then it turned- Right. … into hedge things and C&I. Yeah. And now it’s more, you have this, the data center offtake.

Allen Hall: Is the data center offtake, thinking about it from a, a financial standpoint, which they’re probably not being tied to the grid.

At [00:19:00] least a lot of these, or at least the talk is right now, is the not being connected to the grid to be sort of standalone, feeding a data center, and maybe a piece of fiber optic coming out of the data center. But that’s essentially it. Maybe some backup power on the grid just in case things go horribly wrong, but standalone power for data centers does make sense.

It would, it would seem to lessen the requirements on wind and solar in terms of interacting with the federal government or the, the power company in a sense. Does that make wind and solar a little more viable because it’s not connected to the grid?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I mean, it will be connected to the grid because when the wind stops blowing, the utility will usually, you know, or, and the sun stops sh- shining- Sure

uh, the utility will kind of provide that power. That w- Or the gas turbines that they have would- Gas turbine will kick

Allen Hall: in, right.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yes. Yeah. But, but generally speaking, you’re never truly off the grid, but it does speed things up with interconnection and, and, you know, your T&D [00:20:00] line is much shorter.

Allen Hall: Right.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Or not, you know- Much

much, much shorter. Yeah. Depending where the, the resource is and versus the plant or the, the data center.

Allen Hall: So what are the things that we don’t know in the industry that you’re in touch with that we should know? ‘Cause there, there must be a lot happening behind the scenes that we don’t hear out in public or in the common spaces of some of these conferences that are happening behind the scenes.

What is, what is the status right now? What do you think the status is of wind?

Dan Fesenmeyer: I mean, it’s, I, I, I’m a big sailor, and sometimes the wind’s blowing hard- … you’re going fast, and sometimes you sail into what we call a hole- Yeah … and it’s just dead quiet. We’re not quite there yet, but, um, it, it’s kind of we’re going through a bit of a lull right now.

And I think, I think what people don’t realize is the multiple roadblocks that the industry’s facing. In the past, we’ve had PTCs lapse, and the question is when and if it [00:21:00] will be renewed. Yeah. Now you have other roadblocks, you know, whether it’s, again, FAA, Fish and Wildlife, permitting, different localities.

Some… And this goes back to the data center. A lot of local, you know, communities don’t want a data center.

Allen Hall: Right. There’s a lot of-

Dan Fesenmeyer: Right? And they’re like, “Well, wait a minute. My power prices as a citizen are gonna go up- True … because of it.”

Allen Hall: Yeah, it’s true. We’ve already seen it.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Yeah. So, so there’s a lot of just new barriers that have come up.

Allen Hall: Okay. That-

Dan Fesenmeyer: But wind developers are an extremely resilient bunch, and-

Allen Hall: This isn’t the first rodeo-

Dan Fesenmeyer: Right …

Allen Hall: where they’ve had these issues pop up- Yeah … and PTCs stop and other world forces affect the industry. What’s the outlook over the next three to five years, do you think? Different administration in a couple years, maybe different outlook, more demand on…

for power, AI data centers. Is- it just gonna [00:22:00] overwhelm any resistance to wind and solar and battery?

Dan Fesenmeyer: I mean, it, it, that’s kind of a crystal ball, but I think if these data centers start getting built out like people think they will, there’ll be demand for power. And, now we’re talking basic economics, Supply, demand. People need power, then power plants will get built and, whether it’s gas, wind, solar-

Allen Hall: All of the above

Dan Fesenmeyer: All of the above, right? And, and I think it will ultimately follow that. I think the, administration will let you know if there’s not enough power or power gets too expensive, something has to break and fill that gap

Allen Hall: because- So let the economics play out a little bit.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah, right? Yeah. ‘Cause we’re, we’re voters, right? And- Sure … and, um, people vote often with their pocketbooks.

Allen Hall: And wind and solar are cheap sources of energy, and they’re gonna come to the top of the list almost every time.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah.

Allen Hall: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I, I agree with you. Uh, it’s good to see you again. We saw you a few months [00:23:00] ago at WOMA in Australia, and that was wonderful.

And I tell a lot of the operators we talk to, “You better be talking to Dan and WindQuest Advisors because you really need to understand what your contracts say and the contract you’re signing, and you need to have a better sense of what’s happening, a little more broader speak in the United States and elsewhere- Mm-hmm

and they should be talking to you.” So how do they call or how do they contact WindQuest Advisors to get started?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, www.windquestadvisors.com or reach out to Allen and his team. You’re on LinkedIn. I’m on LinkedIn as well- … both personally and my firm. And, um, ask a friend ’cause I have a, we have- … big networks that everybody…

You know, it’s, it’s a small community here. It

Allen Hall: is.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Right?

Allen Hall: It is.

Dan Fesenmeyer: And, and people bounce around different firms and, but people stay connected, so, um, that’s a great way to find each other as well.

Allen Hall: Yeah. Great to see you, Dan. Likewise. Thank you. Thanks for being on the podcast. And yeah, we’ll hopefully see you in Australia in a couple months.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Looking forward to

[00:24:00] it.

WindQuest Advisors on Repowering and Rising O&M Costs

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America’s Brand: Indifference to Human Pain

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There are essentially two forms of government on this planet: those that care about the wellbeing of their citizens and serve their interests and those that don’t.

Until the late 20th Century, one could have plausibly argued either way re: the United States.  Since about 1980, it’s been clear that we really couldn’t care less about the sufferings of the common American.

It’s really become part of our brand.  Billionaires deserve tax cuts.  The middle class is shrinking, and the poor deserve a kick in the ass for not working harder.

America’s Brand: Indifference to Human Pain

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Renewable Energy

Maine Needn’t Overcomplicate This

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Just nominate some well-educated businessman or city mayor — or maybe just a principled lobster fisherman.

Maine: This shouldn’t be too tough a challenge.

Maine Needn’t Overcomplicate This

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