Nickel is a key metal used in many industries. It’s found in stainless steel, electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and other high-tech uses. The nickel market has been volatile lately. This is due to global economic concerns and changes in supply. This article explores recent trends, factors affecting prices, and the future of nickel.
Nickel Market Swings: Why Prices are Fluctuating
Nickel prices have been highly volatile in early 2025. Worries about a U.S. recession, shaped by Trump’s economic policies, have hurt investor confidence. Nickel started the year at around $17,000 per metric ton but dropped below $16,000 in March, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. This decline was driven by weaker industrial demand and fears of slower economic growth.

China, the world’s largest consumer of nickel, has also shown mixed demand signals. Demand for EV batteries is high, but slower infrastructure growth has held back nickel use.
Will EV Push Prices Up or Keep Them Low?
The electric vehicle industry is a major driver of nickel demand. Nickel plays a key role in lithium-ion batteries. It’s vital in high-performance types like nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) and nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) batteries.
Despite short-term price fluctuations, the long-term outlook for nickel in EVs remains strong. Many automakers are ramping up EV production, increasing the need for battery-grade nickel.
According to industry estimates, global nickel demand from EV batteries is set to grow by 15-20% annually through 2030.

To secure nickel supplies, major automakers like Tesla and Volkswagen have signed long-term agreements with mining companies. This trend is expected to continue as companies try to avoid future supply shortages.
Meanwhile, Indonesia, the top nickel producer in the world, keeps boosting its output. This move adds more pressure on global prices.
How The World’s Top Nickel Producer is Reshaping Supply
The global nickel supply has risen due to increased output from Indonesia and the Philippines. Indonesia has become a dominant player in the nickel market, contributing nearly 50% of the world’s nickel supply. In 2024, the country produced over 1.6 million metric tons, and further growth is expected in 2025. However, this increase in supply has led to concerns about market oversupply, pushing prices down.
The Philippines, another major producer, is also expanding its mining activities. New mining projects are expected to boost production in 2025. However, environmental concerns and government regulations could slow this growth.

In contrast, Russian nickel production faces challenges due to ongoing Western sanctions. This has caused supply issues and shifted trade routes. Now, more Russian nickel goes to China instead of Western markets.
Challenges in Nickel Supply Chains
Although nickel production is increasing, supply chain issues remain. Many nickel mines are located in regions with environmental and social risks. Mining operations in Indonesia and the Philippines have raised concerns over deforestation, water pollution, and labor rights.
Another challenge is the processing of nickel. Most nickel mined in Indonesia is converted into nickel pig iron (NPI) or ferronickel, which is not suitable for EV batteries. Refining nickel for battery use costs more and slows supply growth.
China is investing a lot in nickel processing plants in Indonesia. This effort aims to tackle the problem. Several high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) projects are underway to produce battery-grade nickel. However, these projects face high costs and technical challenges.
Geopolitics and Trade Wars
Government policies play a significant role in shaping the nickel market. In Indonesia, the government has maintained its ban on nickel ore exports to encourage domestic refining. This policy has helped Indonesia dominate the global nickel supply chain but has also led to trade tensions with other countries.
In the United States, efforts to secure critical minerals have intensified. The Biden administration supported domestic mining and refining. But Trump’s policies might change that focus.
Recently, President Trump used emergency powers to ramp up the production of critical minerals, including nickel. Tariffs and trade restrictions on Chinese nickel imports could also impact market dynamics.
Meanwhile, the European Union aims to cut reliance on Chinese nickel. They are building stronger ties with alternative suppliers, such as Canada and Australia. These shifts in trade policies could reshape the global nickel supply chain in the coming years.
Nickel Price Forecasts and Future Outlook
The future of nickel prices depends on several factors:
- Economic Conditions: If the U.S. enters a recession, industrial demand for nickel could weaken, keeping prices low.
- EV Demand: Strong EV growth could drive up nickel demand, supporting higher prices.
- Supply Growth: Indonesia’s increasing production could put downward pressure on prices.
- Geopolitical Risks. Sanctions on Russia and trade restrictions on China could affect supply chains and pricing.
Most analysts predict nickel prices will stay between $15,000 and $18,000 per metric ton in 2025. S&P Global forecasts the LME 3M nickel price to average $16,026/t in 2025. But unexpected events, like supply disruptions or new government policies, can lead to sudden price changes.
Overall, the nickel market is undergoing significant changes. Increased production, shifting trade policies, and growing EV demand are shaping its future. While short-term price volatility remains, the long-term outlook for nickel is positive due to its crucial role in clean energy and advanced technologies.
The post Nickel’s Wild Ride: What’s Driving Prices and Future Demand? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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